We quickly approached the second after Crimea point of probable entry into the war. And again it is impossible to completely eliminate the escalation of the situation to a point where everything can turn into a full-fledged Third World War. During the previous week, we received the following new event nodes, which are the force points of the balance of power.
Donetsk People's Republic: the avant-garde of the Russian Spring
Successes in strengthening the Donetsk People’s Republic, which managed not only to gain a foothold in Donetsk and reassign the administrative power, the Security Service of Ukraine and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, but also to bring under control all the settlements of the Donetsk region, moreover, solely relying on the rise of the local residents themselves, who organized and seized all the centers authorities. This is a significant step forward and actually the first in Ukraine (after Crimea) to create an independent political entity. The most dramatic was the clash on April 13 in the city of Slavyansk, where Kiev threw army units against the people and where there were casualties on both sides. Slavyansk is located in the West of the region and is therefore the boundary between that part of Ukraine, which still remains under more or less control of the junta, and that which clearly made its historical choice, rejecting those who carried out a coup in Kiev, and neo-Nazi "power".
Slavyansk became a point of no return: defend it with weapons In the hands, the Donetsk People's Republic proved its historical and political subjectness. At the same time, Russian servicemen or political instructors did not participate in any of the episodes of the creation of the DPR. Moscow provided only informational and moral support. The DPR was created by Ukrainians and Russian residents of the Donetsk region as a popular response to the coup and the neo-Nazi policies of the junta.
In addition, it is important to emphasize that the illegal "governor" Taruta, appointed by the junta, is a billionaire oligarch, therefore, the uprising of the people, who expelled him, also carries with it the requirement of social justice. Also indicative is the refusal of the DPR government to broker the services of another oligarch, Akhmetov. Neither the popularity nor the weight of this billionaire in the DPR does not enjoy, and his attempts to bribe people caused only more radical rejection. The DPR is built initially as a people's Republic in the full sense of the word: not a product of political deals or oligarchic intrigues, not an artificial generation of PR and political strategists, but a product of the People’s political creativity. I am sure this will affect the ideology and political structure of the DPR, where the social component will most likely be much more pronounced than in other regions of Ukraine - and even Russia, where it’s not all that rosy with social justice.
In any case, the DPR is the avant-garde of Ukrainian politics, and the little-known cities of this region — Slavyansk, Mariupol, Krasny Liman, Artyomovsk, Kramatorsk, Yenakiyevo, and their courageous defenders are today known worldwide. And in Russia, they are known and loved, admired, and everyone prays for them (except for the “fifth column”).
Lugansk and Kharkiv: to the triumvirate
The heroic example of the DPR has been picked up in Lugansk and Kharkov. In Lugansk, self-defense detachments control the city and partly the region. In a power sense, they dominate. The Lugansk People's Republic has been proclaimed, but so far politically the authorities of this new political entity have not been formed. The overwhelming majority of the Lugansk population harshly rejects the junta and neo-Nazis, and with control over the main centers in Luhansk itself, it is quite possible to say that we are dealing with the second political space of the new, in front of the developing statehood of the South-East.
In Kharkov, the situation is more complicated. After the first capture of the RSA by the people and the proclamation of the Kharkov Republic, the building was cleared by the Western Jaguar and American mercenaries from Graystone. Followers of repression by the Security Service and the Interior Ministry, the arrests of activists. It is important to emphasize the betrayal of Kernes, who is torn between the people and the junta, constantly betraying those and others all the time. However, on April 13 Kharkiv gathered their strength and partly regained control over the situation in the city. The situation in Kharkiv People’s Republic is thus less defined, although the “Golden Eagle” and the majority of the police are on the side of the people. The force is clearly on the side of the opponents of the junta and supporters of the Kharkiv People's Republic. It is this week that Kharkiv citizens will have to make a breakthrough in creating a full-fledged political entity and, perhaps, take the first steps to establish the Eastern Political Triumvirate with the Donetsk and Lugansk Republics as the core of the alternative (junta) of Ukraine.
The general agenda in all three new Republics of the East, as, indeed, in the entire South-East - Odessa, Kherson, Nikolaev, Zaporozhye, and Dnepropetrovsk - is obvious: the refusal of elections by the junta for May, the declaration of independence, the referendum is not just about federalization is already a fait accompli, but it’s about the Federation in which the people of these regions see the future: Ukrainian or an independent Southeast Federation, friendly to Russia and automatically joining the Union State of Russia-Belarus.
Odessa and Kherson
Despite the fact that in Odessa the overwhelming majority of the population is opposed to the junta, and the people have shown that they can organize hundreds of thousands against Kiev neo-Nazism, political decisions there are significantly lagging behind the East. As soon as the policies of the old model come into play, popular protest begins to be skillfully disregarded.
It is important to put forward popular leaders, to proceed to concrete political steps. There is only one agenda: a complete rejection of the May elections, the declaration of independence of Odessa and Kherson as independent subjects, a referendum on the Federation and a clarification on which one.
Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye
In Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye, popular protests against the junta are also growing, but, admittedly, the balance of power here is less unequivocal. The junta is doing everything to bring the participants of the Kiev Maidan, detachments of the “Right Sector”, who declared war on Russia, mercenaries and residents of Western Ukraine, into these troubled cities. The more valuable is the desperate courageous resistance that the local population puts on neo-Nazism. On April 13, the excitement of all residents of the South-East of Ukraine and, to an even greater degree, Russia, was caused by the behavior of a group of participants in a rally against neo-Nazism and the junta, captured in a ring by extremists and attacked by forces many times overwhelming them. Despite all the demands and threats, they stood up, did not give up, did not kneel before the Nazi pigs brought to Zaporozhye with the money of the Zionist pig Kolomoisky (charming alliance of the criminal Jewish oligarch with the anti-Semitic Right Sector fanatics!). We are all truly proud of these people of Zaporozhye: steadfast, courageous, inspiring us with faith in ourselves. Zaporozhtsy - the pearl of the Russian Spring.
This week, the resistance in Nikolaev, where people also demonstrated heroism in the confrontation with armed Kiev bastards, will increase in Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk. Although a simple solution in this area will not be. Here it is too early to talk about a political subject - only about the organization of impressive and powerful resistance.
"Candidate Tsarev" no longer
Tsarev, who entered a rather mean-spirited game of the “candidate of the Southeast,” begins to realize that his attempt to legitimize the elections is transparent to the people of the Southeast, who are boycotting the elections, and after visits to Lugansk and Donetsk, where he was told that they think there, began to change their position. This is the only way to save face. Get out of the campaign and join the struggle of the insurgent people. At the same time, Tsarev begins to put forward ultimatums to people: I will leave the elections if you make me your leader. Leader, Tsarev, are in the fight with the people. Visibility of Tsarev’s support for Moscow is completely dispelled by Dmitry Kiselev’s program, where he showed footage of Tsarev’s speech in Donetsk completely discrediting him. Therefore, the “candidate Tsarev” no longer exists, regardless of whether he passes the mandate or not. But as a fighter against the junta, on the contrary, it may well take place. He pursued this line consistently, and if he did not agree to participate in the May farce, he could be a full-fledged political figure. But, apparently, big business in Dnepropetrovsk dictates other strategies to Tsarev.
USA, Brennan and the UN Security Council
All this is an event background. But behind this stands something more solid. In particular, the secret visit in Kiev of the Director of the CIA Brennan. The result of Brennan’s visit and negotiations with Turchinov, Nalyvaychenko, Avakov and other leaders of the junta was the declaration by Turchinov of the anti-terrorist military operation in the South-East of Ukraine, and, in fact, the war of Russia. We saw the beginning of this on April 13 in an attempt at a military assault on Slavyansk.
What does it mean? Everything falls firmly into place. The junta was brought to power by the United States and the CIA. Moreover, from the very beginning they were well aware that it was neo-Nazi forces that supported them, and that Ukraine would no longer exist within its former borders. The task was originally a war with Russia. Tyagnibok, Lyashko, “Right Sector” and all direct Russophobia were actively encouraged by the United States to anger the Russians and drag them into a military conflict. For what? In order to prolong the agony of American hegemony, break the alliance between Russia and Europe, draw Russia into problems on its border and discredit it in the eyes of the international community. Putin's Russia, sovereign, successful, returning to history, was made an "enemy of the West." And the enemy is needed to consolidate, mobilize and write off previous miscalculations and defeats. The dying global financial system, the global crisis, the fall of the dollar - all this is decided through the war. And the US is trying to launch this war. For this - the mad overthrow of Yanukovych shortly before the presidential election, for this - artificially forced Russophobia, for this - extreme Galician nationalism. Brennan came to Kiev to push the indecisive weak-willed leadership of the junta to one thing - to the war in the Southeast.
Brennan promised to help NATO and the mercenaries in the event of the outbreak of hostilities, which the junta could not decide, knowing that Ukraine will crumble immediately and immediately, and they themselves will become bloody criminals. The West will willingly surrender them as used figures. However, the junta is not ready for war psychologically, financially, organizationally or morally. And not only to the war with Russia, but even to the war with the South-East. Hence the hesitations, the attempt to get rid of hysterical jerks from the “Right Sector”, which in the current situation of mobilizing Southeast only accelerates the mobilization of the population and spur the deployment of self-defense units.
This is important: the junta does not want war. Moreover, the junta can not war. And this points to the true geopolitical background of the Ukrainian drama: the junta and Maidan, in fact, turned out to be hostages of American politics — only American, not western, and not at all Galician or Ukrainian. Washington conducted a coup in Ukraine in its own interests, directed not only against Russia, but also against Ukraine, against Ukraine and Russia. The United States does not need any Ukraine, they need a war. And the Kiev junta is beginning to understand that this is pure suicide today. Crimea, along with military bases and ships went to Russia in an instant. In the East, there are already three independent Republics, the strengthening of which is a matter of days. Odessa and other areas on the way. T. n. "Presidential candidates" do not enjoy any popular support. The speech of the leader of the “polls” of the criminal oligarch Poroshenko is easily disrupted by a group of ultranationalist football fans, and the rest are not at all popular. A rating of Yagrosha - 1,9, 0,7. In such a situation, only a madman can begin a military operation. But it was precisely to this that Kiev Brennan was actively pushing.
The junta is trapped. The CIA requires them to voluntarily commit suicide and completely destroy Ukraine.
America wants to fight with Russia. But not with your own hands.
That is what Viktor Yanukovych clearly outlined in his speech on April 13, who at last called things by their proper names. And at the request of Moscow, the United Nations Security Council was urgently assembled, where Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov directly placed on the United States the responsibility for escalating tensions in South-Eastern Ukraine.
So: the US wants this war, promising to close its eyes to civilian casualties that do not exceed 10 000 people, but in fact demanding these victims (!). The United States led to this war. The United States carried out a coup on the Maidan for this war. The United States brought neo-Nazi russophobes to power for this war. But…
Now Kiev is less ready to conduct this war than ever before. Only the mentally handicapped homosexual Lyashko and Yarosh are ready to fight - 0,7%, whose family lives safely in London. The Jewish oligarchs who are now pushing for this junta will instantly end up in Israel at a critical moment. And not only the center of Kiev, but the whole of Ukraine will turn into ruins.
The more the South-East and even Russia will be ready to repulse the junta, the less likely the war.
The war benefits the United States. But it is not beneficial to anyone else. Neither Moscow nor the Southeast, nor - most important - to Kiev itself.
Therefore, today, “There is no war!” Acquires a new meaning: it is not, as Brennan said, the United States, the CIA.
Next week: forecast
A lot will be decided this week: war or not war. If the war, then further predictions make extremely difficult. Kiev has no chance of winning it, even if Russia does not intervene, limiting it to systemic help, but not directly entering. Kiev can start a war only to lose it. But this is what the United States needs. Ukraine, with a burning civil war and the involvement of Russians in it, is the goal of the United States. This is what Washington is leading to and initially led to.
Now it is clear why the Nazis, homosexuals and possessed people were brought to power: healthy people, even very vile healthy people, would not have started this war. Schizophrenics are needed here. Is their percentage in the junta sufficient? It is very significant, but more can not be said yet. Yatsenyuk, Tymoshenko, Klitschko, some others are beginning to seem to be aware of the situation they are in. But it's' too late. Washington requires war. Moscow is ready to fight back. In this case, no one wants to fight. But those who have every reason to win are ready for war, and those who have no chance are not ready. The situation becomes critical.
It comes to Yanukovych. He is now the only politician who could change the situation and even, hardly believe, but still save Ukraine. For two months, Yanukovych clearly understood a lot, remembered a lot, understood a lot. His April 13 statement is very important: he openly challenged the United States. He is the only Ukrainian politician who knows the real value of the West. Neither Simonenko, nor Tsarev, nor anyone else who scolds the West is immune to him. Only Yanukovych.
And now an important point: to preserve the integrity of the Federal Republic of Ukraine is possible only under Yanukovych and with a tough anti-American and fully pro-Russian course. If not, then no way. And there will be no Western Ukraine otherwise. No one will stop the war on the Dnieper, after the first blood everything will be decided by force and rage. And they in the South-East and in Russia itself are only increasing every day.