Possible mistakes

(what is the article about :)

I. Further actions of the junta: scenarios
Ii. Is federalization of Ukraine acceptable to us?
Iii. Do I need to try to "take" Ukraine entirely?
Iv. Who needs the independence of New Russia?

I. Scenarios of junta behavior

The fact that the junta will not regain control over the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, is not doubted by anybody. I can not imagine the scenario of the return of the insurgent region under the control of the current official Kiev, or simply the long-term retention of the current regime in a large Ukraine.

1. The most peaceful and painless course of action that the junta hypothetically could have taken to minimize losses was to compromise with the demands of Russia and the “separatists”: agree to a referendum in two areas or throughout the Southeast and federalization, while consolidating control over remaining territory. In principle, this option cannot be completely ruled out - he could have saved Ukraine without Donbass - but he is politically lethal to the junta. The fact is that, going to reconciliation, the Kiev authorities recognize the legitimacy of the requirements of federalization, state status for the Russian language, reduction of interregional transfers, will be forced to curtail anti-Russian hysteria and all the psychological intensity that keeps their regime in controlled areas. Most likely, either the junta in this scenario is overthrown by radical revolutionaries who brought it to power, or the disillusioned population of all new areas, already without the deterrent of anti-Russian hysteria, will follow the path of Donetsk and Luhansk until Ukraine itself diminishes to the size of Galicia.

Perhaps this is the most promising option for the junta in terms of the survival and safety of its members, but it is unlikely that its foreign owners will allow it. Very much they are not configured to continue to play with the "multi-vector" Ukraine, they want to quickly reap the benefits from the under-grown state they fully subordinate with the entire elite, incite it to Russia.

2. Kiev has another way, based on the rejection of action. It is possible that the “moderate” part of the junta and its patrons hoped that the conflict would “burn out” and radical rebels would be tired of bearing positions at checkpoints, expanding controlled territory, doing tedious work on preparing a referendum, convincing the “swamp” and the vacillating. In my opinion, these hopes are akin to the “cunning plan of Yanukovich” to calm Maidan through ignoring and small concessions. The insult inflicted by the junta on the Russian population, the repressions and armed attacks already undertaken will not be quickly forgotten, and an attempt to back down and soften the effect will be perceived as a manifestation of weakness. Moreover, the rebels themselves decided for themselves that there was no going back. Every day the existence of the unconquered republics delegitimizes the Ukrainian statehood, convinces more and more people that it is not obligatory to submit to Kiev, it humbles the citizens loyal to Ukraine with its transitory character. Therefore, most likely, the “separatists” in the two regions will not be less, and supporters of the “united Ukraine” will increasingly marginalize and go underground, including because of the banal fear of ostracism. Moreover, the sluggish positional confrontation will go against the background of the growing economic collapse caused by the ongoing civil war, and the rupture of relations with Russia, and the unplanned costs of military mobilization, and management incompetence. Mass indignations due to the decline in the actual standard of living and non-payment in conditions of financial bankruptcy of the junta and the collapse of the economy will only increase, seizing at least all new regions of the Southeast. Thus, this way is a dead end for the junta.

It is unlikely that a moderate “doing nothing” plan will prevail in the actual actions of Kiev, for the “vegetarian” faction in the junta does not set the tone. Maybe it torpedoes the beginning of a full-fledged war, but still the informational background in Kiev is formed by radicals, who even more anger Russian resistance and make it impossible for them to surrender their positions. And even if the "vegetarian" faction in the junta gains the upper hand, its opponents will disrupt a possible truce by bloody independent action. Therefore, the development of events according to the second variant also seems unlikely.

3. The third scenario, which is actually being implemented now, is a hybrid between active and non-violent. These are separate provocations from the nameless groups, like the Easter attack on the Slavyansk checkpoint, defensive force actions to prevent the republic from spreading, sporadic assault attempts to inflict damage on the insurgents, not brought to mind. But this path is just as vulnerable as the second option. He will only embitter resistance and the local population, expand the full support of the Donbass from the people of Russia. It seems that someone in the junta hopes that the sacral sacrifices of her supporters in the Southeast, which she wants to get for the television picture, can justify the subsequent use of military force. But who and in what in the South-East will convince this technique after repeated use and exposure of this technology on the Maidan, after the victims at the self-defense checkpoints?

Yes, sometimes such ideas appear in social networks (for some - fears, for others - suggestions and hopes): the Ukrainian government sends irregular formations to the South-East, and after the local population is terrorized by bloody clashes with unidentified groups , it, they say, will gladly accept the Ukrainian army. I think such calculations are wrong, because the local population, instead of waiting for the Ukrainian army, will even more quickly become disillusioned with Ukraine and accept a reliable, with border guards, separation from a failed state.

4. The fourth scenario - total power repression with massive use of heavy weapons - unrealistic due to the intervention of Russia, which will follow a full-scale military campaign, due to sabotage, which such orders will face, as well as inconsistencies within the decaying Kiev regime. It cannot even be ruled out that an attempt at a real forceful suppression would become so unorganized and worthless that the Russian authorities would postpone direct intervention and give the militias of the Southeast, albeit with great losses, to repel the attacks themselves. In this scenario, the junta is also doomed.

5. Finally, the fifth option for the junta is the incitement of a full-scale civil war based on absolutely irreconcilable hatred between the two parts of Ukraine. Of course, Ukraine and Ukrainians in this war will face a total military defeat, no matter if Russia intervenes directly or indirectly, but this would allow its foreign patrons to create a new mythology around the “enslavement of Russia’s freedom-loving Ukraine by totalitarian Russia”, so that in a few decades the basis of new myths, to resume the program of dismemberment of the Russian people.

So far, this scenario is clearly inhibited due to the sabotage and unwillingness to fight by the legal Ukrainian security forces and even the Right Sector, which prefers to carry out punitive actions against defenseless, but not capable of regular combat operations. But it is beneficial to the sponsors of the junta. Existential hatred arousal technologies are worked out in other countries and can give the desired result in a few weeks, so this scenario cannot be completely ruled out.

Nevertheless, the obvious “disorder and vacillation” prevailing within the Kiev regime will inevitably lead to unfit execution or direct sabotage of any extreme option, with the result that the third is most likely intermediate. Under pressure from foreign owners, the junta may decide to follow any of the five paths, but in the end everything will slip to the third. Although, unlike the extreme ways, it is the least meaningful from the point of view of the Ukrainian statehood, it is he who spontaneously develops. And it is carried out not consistently and according to the plan, in the form of a verified passage along the razor's edge, but through throwing from one extreme to the other.

In general, only the method and speed of suicide depend on the Kiev regime and on Ukraine. The positions of the insurgent Donbass look quite solid, and it's time to think about longer-term goals, a strategy for the further liberation of Ukraine.

The main question of the further attack on the junta is whether it is necessary to focus on the “Crimean” scenario of a phased accession of mature regions of Ukraine to Russia or the scenario of the return of all Ukraine to cooperation with Russia and its further evolutionary rapprochement with the Russian Federation?

In line with the first option are the actions of the Donetsk and Lugansk insurgents, as well as the population supporting them, who no longer want to hear anything about the hated Ukrainian state, even if in words and allow the federation. In line with the second option are the proposals of the official authorities of the Russian Federation and the demands of protesters in other areas of the Southeast, still controlled by the junta.

To answer the main question, you need to deal with the following topics.

Ii. Will federalization solve the Ukrainian question?

The requirement of federalization is a favorable cover, which allows the Russian Foreign Ministry to put pressure on the Ukrainian authorities with an unacceptable requirement still under international law, and on activists of Zaporozhye, Odessa, and Kharkov — to reduce the likelihood of their arrest after the federalization slogan has been put forward compared to the slogan on transition to Russia . But the federalization of Ukraine will do nothing for the Russian Federation or the South-East.

From the point of view of Russia's interests, a federal Ukraine, in which one part will integrate with Russia, and the other with the West, is no better than the “multi-vector” Ukraine, which has reached the current state in 23. It will remain an anti-Russian project, at least in a federal, at least in a confederative form. The cultural installations of the “Ukraine is not Russia” series are too strong, ideological Ukrainization has gone too far, even in the South-East, so that it can be developed after weakening the dictate from Kiev, and not completely closing the entire project.

The cultural aspect here is the most important. If the helpline of the Kharkiv SBU office is broken by the calls of the city intelligentsia, informing their acquaintances that they were present at pro-Russian meetings, then really in federal Ukraine these Smerdyakovs will no longer grow mankurts that hate their roots and dream of giving themselves away, even if it’s a scarecrow West? They are already setting the tone in the education system of the Southeast. Even if the hypothetical South-Eastern autonomy of Ukraine itself determines its cultural policy, it will also re-cram Russians into Ukrainians, as it did during the 70 years of the Ukrainian SSR. Ukrainian universities of non-technical profile have prepared a whole generation of graduates to occupy niches in a post-industrial society who do not know how to do anything productive, but they miraculously perform in their economic niches the function of Ukrainians, the originator of “Europeanism”, and the rejection of “Russian barbarism. The Russian intelligentsia, which could have resisted the Ukrainian trend, was driven out during the Civil War, broke down during the Ukrainization of the 20's and 30's, and finally finished off the 1941-44 during the occupation. Those who stayed and remained loyal to Russia simply do not have enough strength.

If you do not include Novorossia in the Russian Federation, with the approval of training programs in Moscow and the inter-regional rotation of personnel, the cultural distance from Russia will continue. And therefore, not only from the point of view of the Russian state, but also from the point of view of the rebels of Novorossia, those who disagree with the distance from Russia, the federalization of Ukraine is as unacceptable as the unitarity. And what kind of being part of Ukraine can be talked about after Kiev, under the hooting of all professional Ukrainians in the country, headed for brutally suppressing any resistance, sending Pravosek to kill dissenting Kharkiv and Donetsk people, to terrorize Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporozhan?

But this is only the cultural side of federalization, connected with education and upbringing. But if Ukraine is saved, the creation of the Ukrainian nation will continue in political terms. Separate from Russia, the elite will live by their parochial interests, and as a result, the government of Novorossia will be formed by a certain reincarnation of the Party of Regions, which is not interested in the prosperity of the native land, but in perpetuating its statehood, separate from Russia.

Supporters of the federalization of Ukraine, who tried to persuade the coup to compromise, put forward such arguments: everyone will live within their means, more money will remain in the producing regions, each part of Ukraine will honor their heroes. These arguments seem to be strained. After all, the money of the East will still go to "nationwide" needs: the maintenance of the Russophobic Ministry of Culture and Education, the actions of the anti-Russian Foreign Ministry, the Defense Ministry's programs on integration into NATO and preparing for war with Russia, to "celebrate" the Holodomor. What will it look like when, in one country, they officially glorify General Vatutin and Bandera who killed him? How will the country's economy function, half of which is trying to integrate into the EU, and the other into the Customs Union?

Adherents of federalization do not and will not have an answer to all these questions. At best, they will honestly say that they consider federalization as a gentle way of dividing. They say that there was a separate republic in the Crimea with a non-Ukrainian identity, and it was easily separated, and we will do the same. At the same time, it is overlooked that Crimea waited for a unique opportunity that happens once in a while. stories, and it is overlooked that the Donbass has already gone much further than the autonomous Crimea. Why would he, who had already overcome Ukrainianness and realized his Russianness, return under the occupation of a hated state and wait for a convenient excuse for an uprising?

So, although the slogan on federalization provides a formal cover for the not yet risen regions of the Southeast and for the Russian Foreign Ministry, we ourselves should not be misled by this appeal. Only the dismemberment of Ukraine and the exit from it of New Russia will allow breaking the back of the anti-Russian project and is a worthy goal. In calling for federalization, the Russian authorities and leaders of the resistance should twice as much explain to the Southeast through other channels that these calls are nothing more than a figure of speech. Roughly speaking, the Russia Today TV channel should broadcast Lavrov’s statements about the integrity of Ukraine, as usual, and other Russian TV channels should show how Sergey Viktorovich, with these words, turns his hands behind his back and turns his fingers into the muzzle. Otherwise, the demoralizing effect of imposing irrelevant compromise on resistance will be enormous. As soon as one or another region proceeds to the stage of an uprising, the slogan on federalization should be immediately replaced with a call for secession from Ukraine and the complete cessation of this state misunderstanding.

On this path are only two obstacles. The first is the inertia of the population of the Southeast, still hoping for a compromise within the framework of a united Ukraine and believing in authorities suggesting a false path of federalization. But it will be overcome by life itself. The second obstacle is the position of many sections of Russia, frankly fearing that Ukraine, which is left without Southeast, will turn into a new Baltic. This question should be considered separately.

Iii. Do I need to take Ukraine in whole or in part?

Russian analysts often have about such an “arithmetic” argument: taking the Crimea from Ukraine, then the Donbass, then new territories, we reduce the percentage of the pro-Russian population in the remaining Ukraine and thereby reduce the chances of Ukraine’s evolution towards a friendly Russia and towards reunification. This idea probably comes from the Bolshevik accession of Novorossia to Ukraine in order to “dilute the petty-bourgeois peasantry with the proletariat” and the nationalist intelligentsia of the Ukraine. For some reason, the lesson did not go ahead: after all, even then it happened the other way around. Instead of a small Ukraine within the Ukraine, weak and unpretentious, it turned out a large Ukraine within the Ukrainian SSR, in which even the intelligentsia of Kharkov and Donetsk are quite anti-Russian. What's the matter?

But the fact is that the “hybrid” Ukraine in the current borders, oddly enough, is a structure that is more stable in its anti-Russian essence than would be a small Ukraine within the limits of Little Russia and western regions. Some feed, others “sleep pisni”; some work and finance, others teach to live, to hate Russia and integrate into Europe. The secret of the stability of Ukrainians is that even the arithmetic majority of Russians will not overpower the influence of nationalists. To a decent Russian person it will be shameful to participate in the Ukrainian system policy and apply for government positions - where do other defenders of the Southeast appear in the Verkhovna Rada, apart from the Party of Regions? Statehood itself, even in a project aimed at not being Russia, will grind any enthusiast of rapprochement with Russia - after all, it is the only way that it perpetuates its existence.

And as long as Ukraine remains whole, at best, the pro-Russian majority will choose Kuchma, Yanukovychs and other mankurts, who in practice will alienate Ukraine from Russia. This is the way to incite hatred of all big Ukraine to Russia and to the war between them.

At the same time, it is impossible to extrapolate the current results of the vote of Little Russia and Western Ukraine for the future, which will follow the departure of Novorossia. People are changing, changing their point of view and the people of Ukraine, left without Novorossia. First, the reduced Ukraine will have to feed those who teach to live and love Ukraine, and, therefore, begin to pick the Little Russian peasants and small entrepreneurs; the latter will be unhappy. Secondly, the shock itself of splitting Ukraine can trigger an insight process in someone. Those residents of the Ukraine, who vote for the nationalist parties, locked themselves in their little world, in which all the troubles come from Russia, who wants to devour Ukraine. This psychoemotional structure has become so resilient that neither defeat in the elections, nor the absence of military actions of Russia by themselves will not destroy the current picture. Only a series of deep shocks that destroy their inadequate inner world can trigger a cure. In the end, the Germans and the Japanese were cured in the middle of the 20th century after a total military rout! The point of view is wrong that by appeasing Ukrainian nationalism with cheap gas and indulging in respectful treatment of Ukrainians, we reduce its anti-Russian intensity. On the contrary: the more Russia indulged Ukraine and Ukrainians, the more Ukrainians burst with a sense of self-worth and pride in the fact that they are not Russians! Accordingly, a series of frustrations and frustrations creates at least some chances for the return of common sense.

In this regard, the arrogant appeals of some Russian inhabitants to the South-East of Ukraine, which has shown its strength and ability to resist the junta, to establish control over the entire republic and ensure its evolution towards a friendly Russia cause particular indignation. First, these appeals come from a false premise that the South-East of Ukraine is inhabited by Ukrainians who are closer to the population of Little Russia than the Russian population of the Russian Federation, and therefore must remain in a separate state from Russia, along with the Little Russians. Although in reality, it is necessary to reunite those branches of the Russian people who have realized their Russianness now, and then we'll see. By the way, then the idea of ​​family reunification will work for Russia, because the residents of Little Russia will want to be in the same country as their relatives who stayed in Kharkov or Dnepropetrovsk. Secondly, these appeals are just guaranteed to destroy the chances for the reunification of all branches of the Russian people. Forcibly cute you will not; Now an attempt to invade Little Russia, and especially Galicia, and impose on them the “Donetsk” regime will be perceived as an invasion of their land and will cause the same strong popular resistance as we now see in the Donbass. In Kiev, now they will not be able to come to power and hold no forces, except those that did the winter revolution. Millions of people living in the central and western parts of Ukraine really went crazy, and it is best to let them burn out in their madness, think again. Fortunately, even the most radical of them are often not eager to go to conquer the South-East and are ready to let him go home. It means that it is best to separate, disperse, let your feelings cool and time to cure resentment.

Another thing is if the West succeeds in unleashing a real civil war of extermination in Ukraine. In this scenario, even if Russia manages to protect the South-East from aggression, such ineradicable hatred of Russia will be grown in Little Russia and in Western Ukraine, which the years of peaceful separate coexistence will not cure. It will be necessary to end urgently with an anti-Russian breeding ground, which means that in the event of a full-scale war, it will be necessary to reach Bug and Tisza, arranging a total forcible denazification of all Ukraine.

Possible mistakes

But we, nevertheless, will hope that the West will not succeed in stirring up a civil war for annihilation, Russia will not need massive military intervention and Ukraine will release Novorossia more or less peacefully. What to do then?

Iv. Does Novorossia need independence?

Finally, one should understand another series of dubious appeals: after the separation of Ukraine, not to expand the Russian Federation, but to leave Novorossia for a long time as an independent union state like Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It must be said that in this case even sane arguments are not advanced, except for the ridiculous idea that, in this case, Russia's international condemnation will be less. Apparently, the only real motive here is the banal reluctance of Russians to temporarily sacrifice their current income in order to “pull up” Novorossia to the level of the Russian Federation. On the part of the elite of the Russian Federation, simply fear of taking on new responsibility and being ready for the influx of “fresh blood” from new regions.

And if in the case of the ideas of federalization and Ukraine that were dismantled above, one can hope that they are not realized due to radicalism and mutual hatred of the opposing sides, then the likelihood of Russia creating an independent New Russia is already much higher, because Russia does not see a consensus opposed to this option. Moreover, the West, seeing the impossibility of preserving Ukraine, will most likely try to bribe Russia with some kind of short-term gingerbread, so that it does not fully join Novorossia. Against so far, only radical leaders of the rebels in the Donbas, who feel so Russian, that they don’t need this independence for nothing.

It seems to me that the idea of ​​an independent Novorossia for an indefinite period is as harmful as the previous two (about the federalization of Ukraine or about taking it all at once). From the point of view of the unity of the Russian people, there is no meaning in several Russian states. As we have already seen with the example of Ukraine, separate statehood launches national genesis. And why should people spend money on two states, on separate foreign ministries, the army, and economic regulators, if one is enough? For Novorossia, their own full-fledged state will become a heavy burden, devouring resources that could be directed to the early alignment of the level of development with the rest of the Russian Federation. The matter is not only in financial resources: the worse thing is that the twenty millionth territory that did not have its own statehood does not have cultural readiness for the optimal solution of all the issues that will be on this path. For example, the economic policy of a separate Novorossia will surely become an incompetent attempt to reproduce the Belarusian experience, but it will only be possible to learn from bad things, including getting into debt and trying to support lower prices, or overvalued local currency. The education system will remain in the hands of the “Svidomo” intelligentsia, and the repainted cynics from the Party of Regions will fill the power, who by habit will “milk” Russia, serving the interests of the West in parallel.

Of course, the accession of Novorossia to the Russian Federation will require a transitional period to adapt legislation, bring technical standards closer, harmonize educational programs, recognize documents of an independent Ukraine, establish a banking system, but all these issues can be solved in working order. In Russia, a sensible and patriotically minded state apparatus, which even without a special interstate agreement will allow the meat processing plant to produce sausage according to the Ukrainian TU for a couple of years, necessary for the adaptation and modernization of production. To delay because of such trifles a formal reunion into one state does not make any sense. You can think about the entry of Novorossia not by eight or nine regions, but by one or two large territories, which will be easier to adapt their economies to the all-Russian, managing, for example, a single complex of mining and metallurgical industries within the region before establishing a new cooperation within the Russian market, but All of these are issues of administrative-territorial organization of lands annexed to Russia and transitional management, which do not require separate statehood.

At the same time, it is the fairly complete reintegration of Novorossia in the Russian Federation that will allow them to quickly overcome the negative effects caused by the economic gap with the rest of Ukraine. Of course, a number of mistakes can be made on the path of the accession of Novorossia, which will increase the economic price and moral costs of the process, but to make Novorussia a second Belarus, firstly, it will not work anyway, and secondly, such an attempt will be even more expensive. However, the optimal ways of political and economic accession should somehow be discussed another time.

In general, we will keep our principles in setting strategic goals - and everything will be fine.
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  1. +1
    April 25 2014 06: 09
    Kiev has another way, based on the rejection of active actions. Perhaps the “moderate” part of the junta and its patrons hopes that the conflict will “burn out” and the radical rebels will be bored with bearing on the checkpoints, expanding the controlled territory, conducting tedious work on preparing a referendum, convincing the “swamp” and those who are hesitant.

    and what pravosekov and the National Guard take? because they are hefty hectic, and can go to Kiev.
    1. +29
      April 25 2014 06: 20
      Kiev, the junta, Kiev, the junta, what Kiev will do, what the junta will do. It’s fundamentally wrong to consider this ...
      US Vice President Joseph Biden at a meeting with the Ukrainian leadership sat in place of the head of state, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

      “Joe Biden met with the Ukrainian leadership, in fact, in the format of the head of state at an internal meeting, sat at the head of the table, and Ukrainian representatives were located on the sides of it,” Lavrov noted, reports RT.

      What will Washington and Obama do, and not the six in Kiev, who decide nothing.
      1. +7
        April 25 2014 06: 37
        Hello Alexander hi I read the article and once again came to the conclusion that everything will settle down in Ukraine after its separation into 4 parts, Crimea has already become part of Russia, then the southeast will separate from Odessa to Kharkov, including Dnepropetrovsk, I think at first as an independent state. After this, Central Ukraine will be bored with hundreds of Bandera and it will tear Galicia away from itself. In the process, it is possible to separate several regions in the west and join them to Romania, Hungary and Poland. On the way out, in my opinion, the situation will be as follows: Crimea and the southeast will be part of Russia, Ukraine itself (what remains of it) will join the Eurasian Union, and Galicia will be asked to join the EU, maybe it will be accepted in 10-20 years .

        As of now, this is just a test of strength.
        1. +7
          April 25 2014 06: 51
          Quote: Canep
          Actually, Ukraine (what remains of it) will join the Eurasian Union, and Galicia will be asked to join the EU, perhaps it will be accepted in 10-20 years.

          Hello, Sergey! I didn’t think you were such an optimist. But will the EU itself last 20 years? I don’t think he will last 5 years. He took too much on himself, not by weight, so to speak.
          As for Ukraine, there is no longer such a state. There is a territory on which there is trouble, but the country is no longer there.
          Quote: Canep

          As of now, this is just a test of strength.

          No, Americans are now clinging to Ukraine with ticks. Either the people in Ukraine will get tired of it and they will throw off the junta (unlikely) Or we will enter Ukraine with all the consequences for them. I don’t see another request
          1. +1
            April 25 2014 07: 14
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            Or we enter Ukraine with all the consequences for them. I don’t see another
            And what is the reason? In addition to preventing a humanitarian catastrophe, there is no real reason.
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            .And will the EU itself last 20 years?

            I think it will exist, because the US will collapse earlier. The collapse of the EU is only in the interests of the United States, and Ukraine is a means of achieving it. I think in the EU sane people are enough to understand this.
            1. 0
              April 25 2014 07: 27
              Quote: Canep
              And what is the reason?

              Protection of Russians, not citizens of Russia, namely Russians.
              Quote: Canep
              I think it will exist, because the US will collapse earlier.

              You are mistaken, there are too many of them and they are too different. Moreover, there are already many not satisfied.
              1. +1
                April 25 2014 07: 34
                Quote: Alexander Romanov
                Protection of Russians, not citizens of Russia, namely Russians.
                They don’t understand, for the West, nationality and citizenship are almost the same thing. Better prevention.
                Quote: Alexander Romanov
                You are mistaken, there are too many of them and they are too different. Moreover, there are already many not satisfied.

                At Barak Huseynovich 29 petitions from the states are waiting for an official response, the State Debt 17000 wagons of money no one wants to pay. And then, what to guess is just to wait.
          2. +1
            April 25 2014 08: 49
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            .And will the EU itself last 20 years?

            Of course not! They already have big ones: confusion, contradictions and national interests. We are waiting for new elections to the European Parliament.
        2. 0
          April 25 2014 06: 56
          A CHESS GAME in the flesh, the maidanutye do not want to recognize one thing - they, in the face of Ukraine, are not a passed pawn for amers, but a sacrificial one. And from RUSSIA, in any case, a queen move will follow or a knight move to a "bad" end. And as a result ...
          1. +1
            April 25 2014 08: 47
            Wonderful things are your Lord! To play against the Magnificent chess player of GDP behind a chessboard for a poker fan, is there evidence of the insanity of US diplomacy. (You can do it with a blackboard by the ears). There has not been a single case when a card-cheater defeats a good chess player (you cannot hide your queen in your sleeve)!
        3. +3
          April 25 2014 07: 44
          Only the dismemberment of Ukraine and the exit of Novorossia from it will allow breaking the ridge of the anti-Russian project and is a worthy goal. (from article)

          The author of the article miguel_kud is right, it is necessary to dismember the failed state "Ukraine", to return the lands of Novorossiya transferred to it with the Russian people.
          There is no other option to save the Russians, who were sent to "Ukraine" by the short-sighted politicians of the USSR, to "strengthen" the statehood of Ukraine.

          Calling for federalization, the Russian authorities and resistance leaders should explain twice as much to the Southeast through other channels that these calls are nothing more than a figure of speech ... (from article)

          The federalization of Ukraine needs to be achieved, as a temporary stage in the separation of New Russia from Ukraine, for its subsequent return to Russia.
          A united Ukraine to preserve and make pro-Russian is not necessary and pointless. Let Galicia and Little Russia remain alone, maybe then the Little Russians will see and separate from the Galicians, imbued with the spirit of Bandera Nazism.
        4. 0
          April 25 2014 10: 34
          "With your lips, yes to drink honey", but I really want to believe that this absurdity will end !!!
        5. 0
          April 25 2014 11: 12
          I read the article and once again came to the conclusion that everything will settle down in Ukraine after its division into 4 parts. .

          This is in my great doubt. Since the current junta and all kinds of Right Sectors (given US support) in the current situation will go to the end. So that some kind of military confrontation in Ukraine itself is unlikely to be avoided.
      2. 0
        April 25 2014 07: 14
        And were there doubts? And why through tears?
    2. platitsyn70
      April 25 2014 06: 31
      and what pravosekov and the National Guard take? because they are hefty hectic, and can go to Kiev.
      it is necessary to shoot ps from atomic weapons as the woman with the scythe said.
    3. Validator
      April 25 2014 07: 32
      In the photo - Alexander Lubenets, a fighter of the Slavic militia. Today he died the death of the brave in battle. REMEMBER THE HERO
    4. Gluxar_
      April 25 2014 10: 19
      Quote: spech
      and what pravosekov and the National Guard take? because they are hefty hectic, and can go to Kiev.

      The struggle for the return of Ukrainian lands as part of present-day Poland.

      The article is competent, definitely a plus. Of course, the author did not consider the interests and influence of a third party in the person of the West, but overall the material is good.
      It is very important to understand that it is the cultural and spiritual aspect that is dominant, and not just economic problems. And on this basis, Russian society should be consolidated not only on an economic basis, although this is also important.

      The main problem is precisely the passivity of the population of the Southeast. And this situation in the regions makes Russia's position weak. In the event of increased violence and the entry of Russian troops, where should they stop? If Lugansk and Donetsk succeed, what to do with Odessa and Kharkov? Reunion in 3-4 stages? The problem is that there is no New Russia, but there are Lugansk and Donetsk regions.

      What I definitely agree with is that Russia definitely does not need all of today's Ukraine, with such an antagonistic population. An ideal option for Russia is a reunion with the whole Southeast in one or two stages. And the total formalization of relations with the rest of Ukraine.
      Given the total debt of Kiev to Moscow in the tens of billions of dollars, such a formalization of relations will quickly cool down the hot heads of both Kiev and Brussels. Europe will not pull Ukraine on the balance sheet as well.

      The problem is that such a development of events is obvious not only for the leadership of the Russian Federation, but also for all external players. And the United States absolutely does not give a damn about the possible chaos in Europe and it will not suffer in any way in any scenario, therefore it will work only for the most negative scenario of collapse. This is the problem. The US needs to be distracted by something more important and sensitive to them. The May talks with China may give Russia a chance to ward off the "eye of Washington" from Ukraine.
  2. +5
    April 25 2014 06: 11
    the whole outskirts is definitely not needed, feed idle, and even kick in the ass all the time to shut up! they still do not calm down, why do we need a smoldering firebrand?
    1. 0
      April 25 2014 06: 53
      Quote: Andrey Yurievich
      the whole outskirts is definitely not needed, feed idle, and even kick in the ass all the time to shut up! they still do not calm down, why do we need a smoldering firebrand?

      I understand your concern. But after all, the Russian tsars annexed territories, by no means burning with a desire to kiss and embrace Mother Russia. I think Putin, who has creatively enriched the ideas of General Ermolov in Chechnya, will be able to do this on the whole territory of Ukraine.

      This is vital because it radically destroys the American plan to strangle Russia!
  3. +5
    April 25 2014 06: 12
    The author is right. Good will not work. These Western Stukes am with nezalezhnikami fool will not allow it.
    If we said "A" with Crimea, we must also say "B"!
    In addition, the world should know that we will not allow anyone to step on their feet.
  4. biglow
    April 25 2014 06: 15
    After the outbreak of hostilities in the Donbas, any federalization can be forgotten .. Novorossiya is almost a fait accompli .. Victims among civilians will only increase the number of supporters of the new country ... And it doesn’t matter whether Russia introduces troops or not, but the junta finally finished off the former Ukraine .. .
  5. +15
    April 25 2014 06: 16
    Yes, a question. Do we need Ukraine and what will happen next? And also the eternal Who is to blame? and what to do?

    I saw today in the vastness of the network:
    "Ukrainian separatist ...
    Irina Samarina-Labyrinth

    Forgive us, dear Russians ...
    While the earth is still spinning
    We will not stop being brothers to you ...
    It’s not my homeland that betrayed us,

    Not the people that went to the square,
    Trying to sore say
    And those who bought our homeland ...
    Bought to sell profitably ...

    Rulers come and go ...
    Someone is remembered for a long time and with good ...
    But lumpy every president comes out
    Like the first pancake, in my native land ...

    We quarreled from the screens and laughed,
    That the brothers quarreled to the nines ...
    But I believe that we remained people in our hearts ...
    And carry each other in our arms

    When someone of us is injured in the back,
    We will not recall citizenship ...
    I believe that Ukraine cannot
    I don’t give a damn about the fraternal peoples ...

    Forgive us for not letting you in
    On their own borders, like enemies ...
    Sorry to trust the channels,
    Where we are considered all fools

    Show war, hysteria
    And they get rations in dollars ...
    But there is no Ukraine without Russia,
    As without a key, you do not need a lock ...

    We are all one family ... Let them quarrel
    But quarrels do happen in the family ...
    And most importantly, that we remain people,
    And not beasts ready for war

    For the lands, for the vague ideas
    Forgetting that children need peace ...
    I can’t think differently ...
    And we for our power - just a shooting range ...

    They want us to send an army ...
    They want a tax to be introduced to the air ...
    But they will not force Russia to stop loving ...
    As long as we are together, God is with us! "
  6. +2
    April 25 2014 06: 16
    Only he who doesn’t do anything is not mistaken ..............
    Mistakes can always be fixed .... Main Together We Strength ......
    The road will be overpowered by a walking .......
  7. +1
    April 25 2014 06: 29
    Boobies and a corrupt woman have one goal: live until May 25 (as a "government" or candidates in "elections"), which is not important further and it is for them; judging by the events it is not real. As previously stated in the articles all this Agony of the Maidan ..."Yellow card" from RUSSIA in the person of Lavrov and Churkin was shown!One must wait - "pechenyukh" from the amers, because the EU will shut up not today, tomorrow.
  8. +1
    April 25 2014 06: 38
    Yes We will overcome difficulties with adaptation. The main thing is that all those who have made their choice gather in the areas to be joined. From all over Ukraine. For then we will not be able to targeted help the applicants.
    1. +1
      April 25 2014 10: 42
      Quote: ya.seliwerstov2013
      For then we will not be able to targeted help the applicants.

      You raised a very correct and timely question!
      The opposite is also true. It is necessary to warn the affiliates that the fluctuations will not be taken into account, after joining no sighs of sighs by any means! We entered RF, observe the laws and rules! Do not want to?
      This is where the problem arises! It’s not enough, they say, to move and in general it’s a home!
      As a result, we get smoldering coals ... and nothing will come of blowers!
  9. +4
    April 25 2014 06: 42
    It’s a very controversial article. As a person, I understand that the restoration of the USSR is ideal for me. At least it’s almost restoration, without the Baltic states, Moldova, Georgia and some Asian republics. But as a citizen, I understand that this is now impossible. A generation has grown up that now governs new states. And this generation will in every way oppose reunification.
    The situation is exactly the same in Ukraine. For some reason, the author believes that all, or at least the majority, of Ukrainians are torn into the Russian Federation. But this is far from the case. There is some part of those who are in favor. But the majority, alas, have not decided or against. And assistance from Russia is expected not as from the Motherland, but as from a state capable of protecting, including from the United States.
    1. 0
      April 25 2014 07: 50
      Quote: domokl
      But as a citizen, I understand that this is now impossible.

      And the material costs should not be forgotten, because after 23 years of "nEzalEzhnoy" the East of Ukraine is in a "pit", Crimea is proof of that. And upon integration with the EU, everything will be closed.
    2. 0
      April 25 2014 09: 26
      Quote: domokl
      For some reason, the author believes that all, or at least the majority, Ukrainians are torn into the Russian Federation. But this is far from the case.

      I agree, but also the majority hate Crimeans because of envy (raising pensions, salaries).
      Residents of the outskirts are extremely mercantile.
      If they show them a bright future in the Russian Federation and their real life in the EU (for example, Bulgaria, the Baltic states), then they will make the right decision.
      1. +1
        April 25 2014 10: 50
        Quote: Vasya
        If they show them a bright future in the Russian Federation and their real life in the EU (for example, Bulgaria, the Baltic states), then they will make the right decision.

        Yes, nichrome is not the "right decision"!
        Do you need friends who are with you while you have money?
        Do you need friends who will immediately become enemies, as soon as you have nothing to fuck?
        I don’t! Or they are our brothers and like-minded people, and then we will share joy and sorrow, or tries together! Parasites are not needed!
        What are they in E.S. they’re striving to invest their efforts in strengthening this alliance? Not at all! Fatten on prepared! Such can go forest!
    3. dmb
      April 25 2014 11: 01
      In, in. And if the author also answers honestly, is he ready to personally "tighten the belt" for the sake of unification, then everything will fall into place. Here you have written about the ideal option. I agree, perfect. But you hardly need to remind how the USSR stands for. And in order to unite on a socialist basis, in fact, the only one possible for unification, you must have it at home. Then it will be clear why we will tighten our belts, and the Ukrainians will fight the bandits of Akchurin and Kolomoisky. It is unlikely that you will want to "drag out" in order to increase the dividends of shareholders of Gazprom and VTB Bank, and the Ukrainians, having Akchurin and Poroshenko on their necks, are not at all eager to add Usmanov and Yakunin to them.
  10. 0
    April 25 2014 06: 45
    everything will be quickly extremely tough and competent !!! In the Kremlin, people are not dumber
  11. qwertynsan
    April 25 2014 06: 54
    and I have the impression that those who are now in power in Ukraine do not really need to be plundered and dumped on a quiet day on May 23-24.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. 0
      April 25 2014 06: 57
      puppeteers will not give !!!
  12. +1
    April 25 2014 07: 07
    The article is good, balanced, without emotions. +++
  13. 0
    April 25 2014 07: 16
    Kiev junta, what will it take ... What the biden will point to, it will do it .... Yes
  14. AVIATOR36662
    April 25 2014 07: 25
    It’s a wonderful article, from which it is clearly seen that there are absolutely no pluses to the federalization of SE in Ukraine. Both for the people of SE and for Russia. It sounds right from the lips of the soldiers of the Army of the SE and the leaders of the DPR that they already treat Ukraine only to a neighboring state, and not as a state in which they want and will live. And it is hardly necessary to deceive ourselves and deceive the hopes of the people of SE that Russia needs a united Ukraine. It’s right that only the Nazis and the junta need it in this form to further parasitism at the expense of Russia and the labor southwest. Recent events have shown that protests in the south east will be suppressed by Kiev by purely punitive measures. By the way, amid talk at all levels about possible federalism. Talks of the junta are one thing, actions (long ago under the undisguised leadership of the CIA and the US State Department) are completely different, bloody. And the junta continues to exist, by and large, only thanks to the money of Russia. And the junta and the water blocked the Crimea, the Nazis did just that Crimean defenders! We look forward to even more effective measures against GDP, so that the blood of the people of the DPR ceases to pour, I hope that it will also be a future part of Russia.
  15. 0
    April 25 2014 07: 32
    from the scenario, we can safely exclude the peaceful option and is preparing for the active phase of the civil war with the collapse of ukroiny at least in three parts
  16. +1
    April 25 2014 07: 50
    At one time, the SDI was imposed to economically strain the USSR, this time will be Ukraine
  17. 0
    April 25 2014 07: 59
    In general, there is only one scenario: the end of the Ukraine that we knew earlier. This is not our fault. The true reason lies in the fact that the strategists from Washington once again wanted to annoy Russia and move their missile launchers closer to our borders. Ukraine is a pawn in this combination, no one asks its consent.
  18. +1
    April 25 2014 08: 08
    Oh, and Ukraine has made porridge, they themselves can’t solve it, and you won’t understand how to start the situation properly. The Lord God himself will stand in a dead end, take for example the accession of SE to Russia, what kind of gangrene we take for ourselves, the fifth column will increase hundreds of times, and ordinary people in no case should be left to eat this Bandera bastard. Enter troops, do not send troops, join the SE, do not join the SE, which Russia will choose. Maybe I'm wrong, but I would choose to enter and attach, but my opinion is an empty phrase.
  19. Lenochka
    April 25 2014 08: 38
    Why are MGIMO students studying in America, joint educational projects with the USA, internships organized? Indeed, as practice has shown, they are recruited by special services there. A. Furtsev said that in Kiev at some university there is even a special. NATO rooms that go through the smartest students who want to have a successful career. If the Americans are so confident in foreign territory, it’s scary to imagine that they can do it on their own. And these future personnel who have been processed in the USA will work in the government of the Russian Federation!
    1. 0
      April 25 2014 10: 56
      Quote: Lenochka
      in Kiev at some university there is even a special. NATO rooms

      Quote: Lenochka
      And these future personnel who have been processed in the USA will work in the government of the Russian Federation!

      I don’t understand? Are the RF rulers being prepared in Kiev? Have I missed something?
      1. Lenochka
        April 25 2014 11: 05
        In Kiev, there are rooms for Kiev students (according to A. Fursov from 14.04.14/XNUMX/XNUMX), for our students (MGIMO) - internships in the USA. The goals are the same apparently
  20. +2
    April 25 2014 09: 36
    Good analytical article. Indeed, if the SE is not annexed to Russia, new Ukrainian "worms" will very quickly start there, which will begin to make a new "independent" out of the SE from the SE, nurturing a new, already "Novorossiysk" chauvinism. And, as a result, hatred of Russia. Of course, with the accession, many problems of the economic and social order will arise in our country, the 5th column will reach a new level of activity, the townsfolk will grumble about a decrease in the standard of living, adding fuel to someone else's fire. There will be dissatisfied people in the South-East, especially big business - they will have to share with ours. The likelihood of a serious war will increase significantly - the West has already ceased to think realistically. But we simply have no other choice. On the contrary, we will lose the geopolitical war in Europe and will lose forever.
  21. +2
    April 25 2014 09: 37
    Look who spoke up: Anatoly Serdyukov urged Ukrainians not to rejoice in a possible war between Russia and the United States, and also to "repay the debt by territories."
    "The Ukrainians are so happy about the possible war between the United States and the Russian Federation because of them, as if they live on another planet that will not be covered by radioactive ash," the politician wrote on his Twitter.
    "Even on the other side of the planet, this war will not be on TV, but in your lungs," the ex-minister summed up. (http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/3354289-eta-voina-budet-v-tvoykh-lehkykh-eks-m
    1. +1
      April 25 2014 10: 30
      "A fool of a fool - and how he spoke!" (L. Filatov. "About Fedot the Archer")
  22. +2
    April 25 2014 10: 25
    2,5 million people joined the Crimea. Even just giving everyone a quick passport is a problem. Plus misunderstandings with deposit banks, pensions. In the east of Ukraine, 20-25 million people can imagine what will begin in these matters, and yet there is still a mountain of everything. For example, the work of the prosecutor. Suppose now in the production of 10000 criminal cases, everything is in the Ukrainian language, who will bring them to the end? And there are a lot of such problems and all this will last for years. Therefore, inclusion in Russia only through the independence buffer. Gradual rapprochement and integration, and it will be easier for the people.
    1. Gluxar_
      April 25 2014 10: 44
      Quote: chunga-changa
      2,5 million people joined the Crimea. Even just giving everyone a quick passport is a problem. Plus misunderstandings with deposit banks, pensions. In the east of Ukraine, 20-25 million people can imagine what will begin in these matters, and yet there is still a mountain of everything. For example, the work of the prosecutor. Suppose now in the production of 10000 criminal cases, everything is in the Ukrainian language, who will bring them to the end? And there are a lot of such problems and all this will last for years. Therefore, inclusion in Russia only through the independence buffer. Gradual rapprochement and integration, and it will be easier for the people.

      Complete nonsense, and this article also notes. If people consider themselves Russian, then why call them novorus? Problems always exist, but within one state they are always easier to solve. A special regime of legislation is introduced, when all existing cases are carried out according to today's legislation, and all new ones according to Russian.
      With banks, the issue is also being addressed. Deposits are simply withdrawn, and loans are bought back by Russian banks. If there is a problem of payment of deposits, then either an amnesty is carried out, or the transfer of the rights of local banks to Russian for external management.

      Everything is much simpler than it seems. It is much more difficult to increase the population in Russia to 165 million people, and it is not difficult to deal with papers.
  23. +1
    April 25 2014 10: 39
    The accession of new territories will occur after the World Cup :-)
  24. 0
    April 25 2014 10: 43
    I liked the analytics. In general, I agree. Especially about the "other channels" and "fingers in the barrel". Informal informational and material support is very necessary, incl. to convince the hesitants in the SE territories to support the protest more energetically. To cut political coupons on the losses of the SE, which, they say, can cope without Russia, as it is not ours, not Russian. With a ratio of 11 thousand barrels against a maximum of 1, plus front-line aviation, armored vehicles and artillery as part of an army grouping, such losses from full-scale hostilities can be simply terrifying. We are not playing at the tin soldiers. Despite the fact that from the west, warriors from the ChVO were involved. These will kill Russians indiscriminately and without hesitation, without the slightest remorse of something that simply does not exist. What is needed is a real, tacit supply of the proper "equipment" and practitioners to operate it. And for the intervention of Russia, it is enough just the fact of the beginning of a large-scale operation, the river of Russian blood is an optional ingredient IMHO
  25. Tyundey
    April 25 2014 11: 02
    Quote: Giant thought
    ... The real reason lies in the fact that the strategists from Washington once again wanted to annoy Russia and move their missile launchers closer to our borders ...

    It is necessary in Kamchatka to cultivate a large bed with the Topolis and periodically bullet them into the Pacific Ocean (towards the USA) so that the pi ... syes do not relax. For Poplar, such a distance is fie, they are bored, and we are pleased :)
  26. +1
    April 25 2014 11: 12
    Thanks to the author (isn't it Glazyev?) "The cultural aspect here is the most important ... Only a series of deep upheavals destroying their inadequate inner world can trigger a cure."
    When there is nothing to pay for a cold apartment and there is nothing to feed the children, you will inevitably think about which way he went, where and with those. Bandera themselves will be driven away.
  27. 0
    April 25 2014 13: 07
    Quote: Dr.Faust.Patron
    I didn’t understand the logic: we are joining the Donbass and are we working hard workers luring to Kuzbass?

    if coal is more profitable there, why not?
    That was what they did under the USSR. Specialists were prepared in one place - and sent to the Far East, for example, where the level of training of specialists was low.
    All this balamut with Ukraine, the United States amuses .. play themselves on the field of the Russian Federation and do not blow into the mustache. Their media - and black does white.
  28. 0
    April 25 2014 13: 28
    It will be as our president will say. He and his advisers are developing all the options. And I think the decision will be correct and calculated. PUTIN not YANUKOVICH will not leave and will not run away! drinks
  29. 0
    April 25 2014 14: 06
    Life is full of surprises (especially for stupid amers and their moronic protégés from the Kiev junta). Only a sick person can threaten Russia, do not be dashing while it is quiet! Wait for the GDP to get bored with your "ritual dances" and he simply forbids trading for your green, cut paper and who will need you! Well, how long will these madmen threaten Russia, because we have never threatened anyone! It's time gentlemen, it's time for you to go into circulation!

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