Military Review

Will Russia become Libya in 2012?

22


The beginning of 2011 was marked by over-fulfillment of the world plan to overthrow dictators: Tunisia, Egypt, Côte d'Ivoire, and recently also the Syrian leader agreed to resign. The whole Middle East was overwhelmed by a wave of violence, and in different countries we could observe its various manifestations. The most painless power changed in Tunisia. The Egyptian version, despite its cruelty, simply fades against the rest of its neighbors.

Until now, conflicts smolder in other states: Libya, Jordan, Yemen, Bahrain. Dying a violent death in this part of the world is now more than ever. On the other hand, the eastern world never valued human life.

Quite predictably, these scenarios are being tried on in the post-Soviet space. It should be noted that the problems of the Middle East and Russia have many similarities between themselves: the raw material orientation of the economy, the lack of productive structural reforms, the infringement of the rights and freedoms of citizens, cronyism, the most serious stratification in the incomes of the rich and the poor. The old conflictology axiom has been confirmed: the longer the suppression of contradiction takes place, the stronger the social explosion will be.

Whose shirt is closer to the body?

Russia is no stranger to revolutions and various kinds of riots. Only for 20-th century there were at least three, or even four (it depends on how you count), but none of them brought happiness to this land. On the other hand, the Russian people will never mind violently throwing off their caps on the ground and tear off their shirt on their chest.

The Tunisian scenario, when the national “chosen one” found it best to flee, would be too pleasant a picture for Russia. Alas: the Russian oligarchs, whose capital for the most part are abroad, are unlikely to be so merciful to the rebellious crowd. It is possible that an unequivocal order will be given: to shoot to kill, having christened all the demonstrators by extremists.

The Egyptian version, a bit more rigid, is also not suitable for Russia. Whatever you may say, our armed forces are not some kind of third force: they are a priori on the side of power. Yes, and Red Square, no one will provide as a springboard for riots. All dissatisfied will be taken from here for 101-th kilometer in 24 hours.

There remains only one option - the Libyan, and such a war does not bode us any good. It is impossible not to note the many similarities of Libya and the Russian Federation: the actual irremovability of power, the raw material orientation of the economy, the reputation of a rogue state in the world, unpredictable and dangerous. In Libya, as in Russia, residents of neighboring countries went to work. And the power of Gaddafi is much stronger than his fellows in misfortune. Unfortunately, a protracted war in this country is more likely to play into the hands of the world community. Too many problems can be solved at its expense.

Russia-2012 - Libya?

You can talk endlessly about the orange revolutions of the beginning of the 21 century, but they did not bring anything good to the states where they occurred. Only Ukraine can be put in a positive example, and not everyone will agree with this statement. Yushchenko was able to implement several reforms, but because of the conflicts within the coalition, they did not bring a serious result.

We have to admit that Russia is too fertile ground for various kinds of upheavals and riots. The people are driven to despair: the media image very clearly reflects the life of the “elite”. Endless luxury, yachts, plastic surgery and huge palaces.

Many simple people have nothing to lose. However, drawing parallels between similar developments, we must say a few obvious truths. The revolution in Libya began after waves of protests swept through Egypt and Tunisia. The analogy is obvious: rebellious moods can be exported to Russia from neighboring Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia or the Baltic countries, where the situation is very tense. In this case, the Libyan option is not only possible, but also inevitable.

The logic of Russian revolutions is such that it wants not to transform the previous system, but to completely destroy it. It was already so far back in 1917: the Bolsheviks did not want to keep alive a single member of the royal family.

Now, probably, there is no doubt why Putin so vehemently began to block Gaddafi and turned into a kind of attorney colonel. He also tries on the Libyan scenario on Russian soil and sees a huge number of similar features.

Twitter and Facebook are not our friend

It is impossible not to note one remarkable fact of all revolutions of the sample 2011-th year. These are media riots, far more menacing and merciless than the orange revolutions. Recall that in the 2004-2005 year, social networks did not enjoy such popularity as in 2011-m: now the number of adherents of such sects as VKontakte and Twitter (and the like) is counted by tens of millions of people. Each of them has a family, so the level of information coverage is even wider.

If in Russia they begin to filter the Internet, you should know: the next revolution is not far off.
Author:
22 comments
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  1. xoma
    xoma 3 May 2011 08: 45
    0
    If they begin to rock the situation according to the Libyan scenario, then everything will depend on the army, how quickly it can suppress the speeches. It makes no sense to count on the police. Only prepared riot police and army.
    If the situation gets out of control and the army remains in the barracks for the Americans, there will be an excellent occasion to quickly seize all our strategic launchers to avoid capture and unauthorized launches, so to speak. And then we will stay again with a gun and a shovel against drones, as it always has been. Russia has never been ready for war, neither for the first nor for the second world war, I am afraid of tracing, we are also not ready.
  2. Bugaenko Alexander
    Bugaenko Alexander 3 May 2011 09: 10
    +2
    The script is impossible! I will explain. I won’t speak for all of Russia, but in Siberia we have unmeasured weapons (and with good optics, much better than in the army), I mean only weapons for hunting. If you consider everything on hand, then .... If someone decides to come to us ... ASS asshole! Taiga is not the Libyan desert. Yes, the Army 80-90% hates the ruling regime for the actions of Ser ..- Taburetkina. No matter how they enfold the army, our air defense can still work. Gentlemen with NATO are not ready to take losses (and they will be unacceptable for them, because they value the lives of their pilots).
  3. Celestis
    Celestis 3 May 2011 09: 46
    +3
    It begins, another comrade heard a lot of Kremlin propaganda! Author, are you familiar with any of the officers? Have you heard what’s going on in the army? In the event of a revolution, our army will not oppose the people (provided that the revolution is not carried out by liberoids)! Modern power keeps troops on such a beggarly rations and their actions to such an extent destroyed their legitimacy that the army will NEVER defend it. And will someone protect the capitals of oligarchs, local officials? Author, would you become? The only force behind the power will be the PART of internal troops, and private security. Only now nobody wants to die for money, they are ready to die for the idea.
  4. dick
    dick 3 May 2011 09: 48
    +1
    I agree to 90% about the combat readiness of our army, but it’s not worth exaggerating the readiness of the present people to repel the seizure of Russian land ... Let me explain: what has the population done over the past 10 years to improve their lives? Who is the owner of the Russian land and natural resources? What do the Jews from the Russian land suck now and what do we suck? That's right ... we were leaked to the bourgeoisie 20 years ago almost without a fight ... the mess was only in Moscow, and in other regions, including and in Siberia they didn’t even understand what happened and who we are now ... the masters became slaves ... With all due respect, but the partisan hunters will not fix the matter ... the taiga is big, but no one will catch partisans ... just Isolate and smoke with gas and all. and no one to sting.
  5. Bob
    Bob 3 May 2011 11: 02
    +4
    War is inevitable - a matter of time
    The authorities are doing everything to aggravate the contradictions. The Zhid spawn is in power, and the people have nothing to hope for, therefore no one will defend it. The Libyan scenario is very real. To distract from internal problems, a good step would be to unleash a conflict of global proportions. The Jews will do everything to preserve their capital and main power, and war has always been their favorite decision to solve their problems with the blood of the people. Bloodsuckers and only. The main Jews, of course, are abroad, but ours are well integrated: oil - dollars. The scheme is simple and affordable. And you sew to the people. Here is the revolution. When some have yachts and football clubs, while others ... Chubais. Abramovich, etc. etc.
    Output? Wait for the moment of truth - having brought your head to the sacrificial table. Or ... Fighting taking weapons to Siberia. All will not be smoked. And one by one to catch it is not profitable. While there is time to prepare. But its less and less ...
  6. Mr. Truth
    Mr. Truth 3 May 2011 12: 17
    +2
    Attention to all who read, read or will read this article, friends do not succumb to provocations, now the destabilization of the situation in the country is primarily beneficial to the West, and not to us. We ourselves will do everything when the time comes.
  7. Kazakh
    Kazakh 3 May 2011 13: 00
    0
    Say what you like, but our armed forces are not some kind of third force: they are a priori on the side of the authorities. "We and the people, according to the BLEVAD Center, fully support the ruling power Mr. Truth
    Attention to all who read, read or will read this article, friends do not succumb to provocations, now the destabilization of the situation in the country is primarily beneficial to the West, and not to us. We ourselves will do everything when the time comes. A WE DO NOT ZAE ** TO WAIT Dear comrade ?????
  8. yurik200
    yurik200 3 May 2011 13: 09
    -5
    Do not spray your drool, the Russian people will not grow up to the Livians ... so you will wait for the SLAMS to slaughter. Oil, gas will end themselves will disintegrate like a scoop .............. and maybe earlier. ... the Chinese will populate you lol
  9. spirit
    spirit 3 May 2011 13: 23
    0
    Quietly quiet !!! this is all a lack of solar activity)))))))) at such a time there have always been revolutions !!
    So we put a wet towel on my head and COOL)))))))))
  10. Forward
    Forward 3 May 2011 14: 04
    +1
    yurik200,
    How in Libya will not be in Russia! Our mentality is different. Ultimately, I think common sense will prevail. Or then military democracy! I will explain for those who do not know. Military democracy was in the empire of Genghis Khan. Khan's bid. Under Pinochet there was also a military democracy, this is a more modern example. The choice is the people of Russia. I do not justify or blame anyone. Everyone has their own opinion and point of view, even yrik200. Although, here, many would gladly hang him in one place. By the way, dear, you see the one-sided situation. We are not rams, we are just patient. This is embedded in the character of the Russian man. And in my opinion it is very good quality. and it would not hurt the Libyans, Arabs and Georgians by the way, too.
  11. LEKHA
    LEKHA 3 May 2011 15: 18
    0
    ha no brainer that the Pindos will soon take on us just a dumb Kremlin is not familiar
  12. Stavr
    Stavr 3 May 2011 15: 29
    +2
    The Libyan scenario is really real, but exactly the opposite. NATO troops will begin to defend the current Russian government from a popular rebellion, which will undoubtedly appear after once again people are deceived by voting against both Putin and Medvedev. But in the end, Medvedev will win, despite the fact that almost no one will vote for him. This is what will fill the cup of patience and outright deception of the people in the elections. Check out polls for independent publications on the Internet. Already 60% vote for Zyuganov, only 10% for Putin. Only 4% vote for EDRos !!! And they all the same in the number of votes ahead of the rest. How can this be? Only Levada Center does the necessary numbers, but no one believes it.
  13. gans
    gans 3 May 2011 15: 50
    0
    While a fat one dries, a thin one dies. Suckers wait for Russia to fall apart, when it runs out of oil and gas, now they are waiting for a revolution. Guys, you haven’t tried to work, or in your countries it’s hard to work, so go west, they like loshki there
  14. Escander
    Escander 3 May 2011 16: 14
    +1
    The article is complete nonsense, moreover provocative.
    Some, I see, with the winners in the Siberian forests gathered, and there are revolutionaries.
    They just forgot how Russia differs from banana republics. Pindos, by the way, this is always remembered. Therefore, it is not worth the Libyan scenario (or whatever) to breed us here. The author clearly swims finely.

    Yorik - by golly, there aren’t enough continents for you.
  15. Kazakh
    Kazakh 3 May 2011 18: 17
    +1
    word to apricots recently by the way 200 is weight or size?
  16. 789
    789 3 May 2011 19: 48
    0
    It is not clear why the threat is expected from America, by and large it does not give a damn about Russia, the only thing they want is for the country to be stable and not to have a nuclear threat. If something happens then the threat will come from China, China really needs land.
  17. datur
    datur 3 May 2011 22: 23
    -1
    author from the same clip as yurik200, only more cultured. Erik bile climbs from all the cracks. drink my friend choleretic helps otherwise burst with anger.
  18. Az
    Az 5 May 2011 10: 37
    0
    The enemy clearly wrote. It is clear that such a scenario would be very desirable to implement overseas ghouls and their mongrel. But this is unlikely to go. They are trying to patiently decompose us from the inside. Disfigure the souls of our children. Therefore, we must educate them as Russian patriots from the cradle. We have been surrounded by continuous Americanism for twenty years. It penetrates into all spheres of our life.
  19. 00-00-00
    00-00-00 5 May 2011 16: 29
    0
    The war is on. The war for our souls.
  20. 00-00-00
    00-00-00 5 May 2011 16: 30
    0
    The war is on. The war for our souls.
  21. Mao Zedong
    Mao Zedong 5 May 2011 19: 09
    0
    The war is terrible, the worst is that all around are enemies: Pindos, Islamists, Chinese ... And they are getting closer, there is not much time to wait.
    So, there will be no war until:
    - Russian oil, gas, and other wealth are exchanged for Pindos green paper;
    - Russian rubles do not belong to Russia;
    - the very Islamists and Chinese, the Chinese rivals the Pindos, are alive and well, and Islam arose as an answer to greedy, bloodthirsty Judaism.
  22. Mao Zedong
    Mao Zedong 5 May 2011 19: 10
    0
    The war is terrible, the worst is that all around are enemies: Pindos, Islamists, Chinese ... And they are getting closer, there is not much time to wait.
    So, there will be no war until:
    - Russian oil, gas, and other wealth are exchanged for Pindos green paper;
    - Russian rubles do not belong to Russia;
    - the very Islamists and Chinese, the Chinese rivals the Pindos, are alive and well, and Islam arose as an answer to greedy, bloodthirsty Judaism.
  23. lokdok
    lokdok 10 May 2011 11: 59
    +1
    Russia needs 50 years to live without wars. All who call for revolution knowingly wish evil to our Motherland.
    Egypt, Tunisia earned on tourism, and now there are sharks, then revolutions, then religious wars - whoever goes there, the tourist flow will return to the states and Europe, and let the natives die of hunger.