Amputational compromise, or why shred Ukraine
The article proposed below is published on the Ukrainian resource "Controversy". Its author is a prose writer, poet, publicist, scientist and well-known opposition leader Leonid Storch (born 1963), writing on Echo of Moscow and from 2013 onwards, according to Wikipedia, one of the ten most popular local bloggers.
Storch lived and studied in the USSR, in 1989, he emigrated to the USA. In the US, he also studied, from a linguist (a specialist in Chinese), retraining as a lawyer. In 2006, he returned to Russia, but not for long. Three years later, flew to Thailand.
Currently, Mr. Storch lives in Bangkok, without stopping the virtual collaboration with the liberal Russian media.
The fact that the West and Russia have already agreed on the redistribution of Ukraine, and that the Ukrainian authorities do not object to this, writes Leonid Storch in his article. In his opinion, the EU has always looked back on the pro-Russian Donbass, so a new trimmed Ukraine will be beneficial to Europe.
The absurdity of the situation is that the preservation of the integrity of Ukraine is not now a priority for the political leadership of Ukraine. Their priority is the elections scheduled for May 25 and, most importantly, the preservation of power taken by the Maidan from the Yanukovych faction. However, the main goal of the Maidan was not in the government castling, but in creating a strong Ukraine, independent of Moscow, and the integration of such Ukraine into Europe. With all the desire you can not be considered a strong and independent state, the territory of which is bit by bit taken over by a hostile neighbor.
As it should have been supposed, the Kremlin’s imperial ambitions did not end with the Crimea. The Crimean scenario, developed in Moscow, is repeated now in the Donbas and Luhansk region.
SCENARIO. At first, local brigades of declassed elements, headed by several local officials, stage the “will of the people”, seizing a couple of government buildings. At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities, both in Kiev and in the provinces, urge not to succumb to provocations and actively condemn the separatists. Those, in turn, decide on a referendum and self-determination and hang out Russian flags on the captured buildings.
In response, the Ukrainian authorities put forward an ultimatum and threaten to use force. Then, separatists push demonstrators to captured buildings - it is desirable that there be as many women, children and pensioners as possible in order to use them more effectively as a living barrier - and they express support for the referendum. The “H” hour is coming, but the Ukrainian authorities are not taking any action except for new calls to prevent destabilization and fight back.
Then, in the settlements of the regional periphery, “green men” from Russia are announced and, on behalf of the insurgent people, begin to seize strategic military facilities. Ukrainian authorities continue to strongly recommend not to succumb to provocations.
A referendum is held in the final - and the territory is cut off from Ukraine.
It is in this scenario that the Donbas is being cut off. But if the inaction of the Ukrainian government in connection with the Crimea could be explained by the shock and presence of Russian troops in Sevastopol, the position of Kiev politicians towards the Southeast is more like a frank betrayal.
STRANGE WAR AND STRANGE POLICY. The Ukrainian media sadly narrates how the army rents armored vehicles to the separatists and how the separatists occupy new objects. Then we accidentally learn that it is not only the so-called self-proclaimed "Donetsk Republic", but the whole "Federation of South-East of Ukraine" headed by a certain Anatoly Vizir. Then - that leaflets are being distributed in Donetsk demanding to pay the dollar tax of the new “people's” power and voluntarily enroll in the rebel army. The apostates promise to “evict to benders” with, of course, voluntary confiscation of property.
What does the government do when a foreign government sends its military and agents to its territory and creates mass chaos there in order to take it away? It declares a state of emergency and sends troops to protect the state entrusted to it. What are the political leaders of Ukraine doing? Turchinov signs condemning declarations, Tymoshenko conducts consultations with Western politicians, Yatsenyuk discusses the conditions of new loans, and all of them are preparing for elections in the most serious way. In other words, to protect their own state from disintegration and intervention, the Ukrainian leadership is not doing ANYTHING.
In early March, I wrote that the position of the Kiev authorities resembled the Strange War waged by France against the Third Reich in 1939-40, and that then the imitation of the defense of their state ended with its occupation. The events of the past month and a half have confirmed my concerns. Thanks to the “wise” and very strange policy of Kiev, the Crimea is already attached to the Russian Federation (although the world did not recognize this accession), the Donbass is actually out of control of Kiev, the next step is Lugansk, which may be followed by areas.
TIME OF QUESTIONS. The Ukrainian government for a long time introduced all (including the author of this post) to the error of the strength of its armed forces. But already before the beginning of the annexation of Crimea, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine admitted that out of 40 with more than a thousand cadre military personnel, they are only about 6,000. The remaining 75% apparently suffer from consumption, congenital heart disease, poor vision, deafness and, possibly, cerebral palsy. But if this is so, then why were they kept and kept in the cadre army? And if this is not the case, then are these tens of thousands unable to calm down two or three thousand separatists and several hundred "green men" in the Southeast? Of course, they are capable, but for some reason the authorities do not want this to happen.
Assume that, after all, 75% of Ukrainian personnel are really sick and cannot hold even cold weapon. But after all, there is the Right Sector already formed and tested in clashes with the Berkut. But the authorities do not want the Right Sector to prevent rejection of the Southeast. Moreover, the government is struggling with this sector, and two weeks ago, the Rada even adopted a draft resolution on the disarmament of its troops.
But the population of Ukraine is 43 million people (not counting the Crimea). Is it really impossible to carry out a general mobilization or at least form a people's militia in order to curb the "aunts" and "green men", as well as protect the country in the event of massive intervention? No money to buy militia weapons? Or is the fact that the Kiev authorities do not want the participation of the militia?
But even if the Ukrainian government is not able to do anything of the above, then close its own borders so that impudent little people and other disruptive elements do not penetrate, could it at least? But for some reason it turned out to be too much for him.
The Ukrainian leadership has already pleased odious lovers, saying that the EU and the United States should be involved in confronting Moscow over the issue of annexations, not Kiev. Then the authorities distinguished themselves even more, explaining that they did not impose a state of emergency, in order not to suspend the election campaign and not disrupt the May elections. In absurdity, this idea is not inferior to the best pearls of Yanukovich or even Spring, Zhirinovsky or Fedorov. So, the state of emergency in the Donetsk region will prevent the election of the president of Ukraine, but disconnecting this area from Ukraine and joining the Russian Federation is not? I wonder how Kiev is going to hold elections in the territory controlled by a hostile foreign state?
But maybe, in Kiev, they understand everything, but they can't really say anything? Just trying to avoid a collision with a powerful Russian army and, thereby, want to avoid human casualties? But after all, such a collision cannot be avoided if Moscow continues to clean up the region after the region, having finally reached Kreschatik itself?
TIME ANSWERS. The absurdity of the situation is that the preservation of the integrity of Ukraine is not now a priority for the political leadership of Ukraine. Their priority is the elections scheduled for May 25 and, most importantly, the preservation of power taken by the Maidan from the Yanukovich faction and transferred to the anti-Moscow faction, i.e. However, the main goal of Maidan and the February 21 Revolution was not in the government's reshuffling, but in creating a strong Ukraine, independent of Moscow, and integrating such Ukraine into Europe. With all the desire you can not be considered a strong and independent state, the territory of which is bit by bit hosted by a hostile neighbor and which loses control over new areas every week.
I think that in the process of long consultations between Kiev, Moscow and the West in March-April there was a general agreement or, at least, a position that suited all high-ranking politicians (of course, no one “consulted” the people).
The fact that Putin, who at that time was personally engaged in a matter of universal importance, the holding of the Olympics, led Ukraine away from under his nose, outraged him. He decided to answer “according to concepts”: if you want to go to Europe - a good riddance, but without pro-Russian baggage. Customs, in principle, gave the green light to the passage of the train to the West, but ordered the southern and eastern wagons to be disconnected - in compensation for historical proximity, invested funds, “spilled blood”, etc. Moscow is happy with such an outcome: instead of the crane in the sky — that is, the ever-wavering Ukraine of Yanukovych — it’s better to get a tit in a fist, that is, annex several Ukrainian regions.
Kiev is also satisfied with this decision, because the new, curtailed Ukraine will become more homogeneous, more Ukrainian and less Russian. Kiev was not ready for federalization, the only way to preserve the integrity of the country and make it really strong: the remnants of the Soviet totalitarian mentality and the inability to compromise, that is, political immaturity, affected. Monolithic Ukraine will be easier to integrate into Europe and NATO.
The European Union was, of course, interested in the industrial potencies of Eastern Ukraine, but it always looked cautiously at anti-Western sentiments in the Crimea, in the Donbas, etc. The frankly non-European cultural beginnings of these regions, alien mentality, corruption and the mafia of the economy - all these were important factors hindering the EU's readiness for integration with Ukraine. In many ways, for the same reasons, Turkey has not been able to achieve EU membership for several decades. Without a Russian-language ballast, “Ukrainian” Ukraine will be a more attractive candidate for joining the EU and NATO. Therefore, the option of cutting back the country suits both Washington and Brussels.
As a result of these political tricks, the wolf must remain almost full, and the sheep - almost intact. True, without one shin and without one hoof, but still alive. And in time to run again, the experts promise to supply her with a prosthesis using the latest technology, i.e., to secure EU membership. Such is the amputational compromise. Therefore, Ukraine and shred. It is possible that the Geneva talks, which began today, will become the new Munich. However, there is still time to change everything. And if the West shows more determination, amputation can be limited to recognition of the annexation of Crimea, leaving the Southeast where it should be.
There is a simpler, more natural solution: the Ukrainian authorities must reconsider their priorities, recall that their main task is to protect their state and begin to defend it finally: close the borders, carry out a general mobilization, gather militia and fight off the enemy. And if she is unable to do this, then let her leave, or at least not interfere with those who are ready to resist the aggressors.
Storch lived and studied in the USSR, in 1989, he emigrated to the USA. In the US, he also studied, from a linguist (a specialist in Chinese), retraining as a lawyer. In 2006, he returned to Russia, but not for long. Three years later, flew to Thailand.
Currently, Mr. Storch lives in Bangkok, without stopping the virtual collaboration with the liberal Russian media.
Editorial "VO"
The fact that the West and Russia have already agreed on the redistribution of Ukraine, and that the Ukrainian authorities do not object to this, writes Leonid Storch in his article. In his opinion, the EU has always looked back on the pro-Russian Donbass, so a new trimmed Ukraine will be beneficial to Europe.
The absurdity of the situation is that the preservation of the integrity of Ukraine is not now a priority for the political leadership of Ukraine. Their priority is the elections scheduled for May 25 and, most importantly, the preservation of power taken by the Maidan from the Yanukovych faction. However, the main goal of the Maidan was not in the government castling, but in creating a strong Ukraine, independent of Moscow, and the integration of such Ukraine into Europe. With all the desire you can not be considered a strong and independent state, the territory of which is bit by bit taken over by a hostile neighbor.
As it should have been supposed, the Kremlin’s imperial ambitions did not end with the Crimea. The Crimean scenario, developed in Moscow, is repeated now in the Donbas and Luhansk region.
SCENARIO. At first, local brigades of declassed elements, headed by several local officials, stage the “will of the people”, seizing a couple of government buildings. At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities, both in Kiev and in the provinces, urge not to succumb to provocations and actively condemn the separatists. Those, in turn, decide on a referendum and self-determination and hang out Russian flags on the captured buildings.
In response, the Ukrainian authorities put forward an ultimatum and threaten to use force. Then, separatists push demonstrators to captured buildings - it is desirable that there be as many women, children and pensioners as possible in order to use them more effectively as a living barrier - and they express support for the referendum. The “H” hour is coming, but the Ukrainian authorities are not taking any action except for new calls to prevent destabilization and fight back.
Then, in the settlements of the regional periphery, “green men” from Russia are announced and, on behalf of the insurgent people, begin to seize strategic military facilities. Ukrainian authorities continue to strongly recommend not to succumb to provocations.
A referendum is held in the final - and the territory is cut off from Ukraine.
It is in this scenario that the Donbas is being cut off. But if the inaction of the Ukrainian government in connection with the Crimea could be explained by the shock and presence of Russian troops in Sevastopol, the position of Kiev politicians towards the Southeast is more like a frank betrayal.
STRANGE WAR AND STRANGE POLICY. The Ukrainian media sadly narrates how the army rents armored vehicles to the separatists and how the separatists occupy new objects. Then we accidentally learn that it is not only the so-called self-proclaimed "Donetsk Republic", but the whole "Federation of South-East of Ukraine" headed by a certain Anatoly Vizir. Then - that leaflets are being distributed in Donetsk demanding to pay the dollar tax of the new “people's” power and voluntarily enroll in the rebel army. The apostates promise to “evict to benders” with, of course, voluntary confiscation of property.
What does the government do when a foreign government sends its military and agents to its territory and creates mass chaos there in order to take it away? It declares a state of emergency and sends troops to protect the state entrusted to it. What are the political leaders of Ukraine doing? Turchinov signs condemning declarations, Tymoshenko conducts consultations with Western politicians, Yatsenyuk discusses the conditions of new loans, and all of them are preparing for elections in the most serious way. In other words, to protect their own state from disintegration and intervention, the Ukrainian leadership is not doing ANYTHING.
In early March, I wrote that the position of the Kiev authorities resembled the Strange War waged by France against the Third Reich in 1939-40, and that then the imitation of the defense of their state ended with its occupation. The events of the past month and a half have confirmed my concerns. Thanks to the “wise” and very strange policy of Kiev, the Crimea is already attached to the Russian Federation (although the world did not recognize this accession), the Donbass is actually out of control of Kiev, the next step is Lugansk, which may be followed by areas.
TIME OF QUESTIONS. The Ukrainian government for a long time introduced all (including the author of this post) to the error of the strength of its armed forces. But already before the beginning of the annexation of Crimea, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine admitted that out of 40 with more than a thousand cadre military personnel, they are only about 6,000. The remaining 75% apparently suffer from consumption, congenital heart disease, poor vision, deafness and, possibly, cerebral palsy. But if this is so, then why were they kept and kept in the cadre army? And if this is not the case, then are these tens of thousands unable to calm down two or three thousand separatists and several hundred "green men" in the Southeast? Of course, they are capable, but for some reason the authorities do not want this to happen.
Assume that, after all, 75% of Ukrainian personnel are really sick and cannot hold even cold weapon. But after all, there is the Right Sector already formed and tested in clashes with the Berkut. But the authorities do not want the Right Sector to prevent rejection of the Southeast. Moreover, the government is struggling with this sector, and two weeks ago, the Rada even adopted a draft resolution on the disarmament of its troops.
But the population of Ukraine is 43 million people (not counting the Crimea). Is it really impossible to carry out a general mobilization or at least form a people's militia in order to curb the "aunts" and "green men", as well as protect the country in the event of massive intervention? No money to buy militia weapons? Or is the fact that the Kiev authorities do not want the participation of the militia?
But even if the Ukrainian government is not able to do anything of the above, then close its own borders so that impudent little people and other disruptive elements do not penetrate, could it at least? But for some reason it turned out to be too much for him.
The Ukrainian leadership has already pleased odious lovers, saying that the EU and the United States should be involved in confronting Moscow over the issue of annexations, not Kiev. Then the authorities distinguished themselves even more, explaining that they did not impose a state of emergency, in order not to suspend the election campaign and not disrupt the May elections. In absurdity, this idea is not inferior to the best pearls of Yanukovich or even Spring, Zhirinovsky or Fedorov. So, the state of emergency in the Donetsk region will prevent the election of the president of Ukraine, but disconnecting this area from Ukraine and joining the Russian Federation is not? I wonder how Kiev is going to hold elections in the territory controlled by a hostile foreign state?
But maybe, in Kiev, they understand everything, but they can't really say anything? Just trying to avoid a collision with a powerful Russian army and, thereby, want to avoid human casualties? But after all, such a collision cannot be avoided if Moscow continues to clean up the region after the region, having finally reached Kreschatik itself?
TIME ANSWERS. The absurdity of the situation is that the preservation of the integrity of Ukraine is not now a priority for the political leadership of Ukraine. Their priority is the elections scheduled for May 25 and, most importantly, the preservation of power taken by the Maidan from the Yanukovich faction and transferred to the anti-Moscow faction, i.e. However, the main goal of Maidan and the February 21 Revolution was not in the government's reshuffling, but in creating a strong Ukraine, independent of Moscow, and integrating such Ukraine into Europe. With all the desire you can not be considered a strong and independent state, the territory of which is bit by bit hosted by a hostile neighbor and which loses control over new areas every week.
I think that in the process of long consultations between Kiev, Moscow and the West in March-April there was a general agreement or, at least, a position that suited all high-ranking politicians (of course, no one “consulted” the people).
The fact that Putin, who at that time was personally engaged in a matter of universal importance, the holding of the Olympics, led Ukraine away from under his nose, outraged him. He decided to answer “according to concepts”: if you want to go to Europe - a good riddance, but without pro-Russian baggage. Customs, in principle, gave the green light to the passage of the train to the West, but ordered the southern and eastern wagons to be disconnected - in compensation for historical proximity, invested funds, “spilled blood”, etc. Moscow is happy with such an outcome: instead of the crane in the sky — that is, the ever-wavering Ukraine of Yanukovych — it’s better to get a tit in a fist, that is, annex several Ukrainian regions.
Kiev is also satisfied with this decision, because the new, curtailed Ukraine will become more homogeneous, more Ukrainian and less Russian. Kiev was not ready for federalization, the only way to preserve the integrity of the country and make it really strong: the remnants of the Soviet totalitarian mentality and the inability to compromise, that is, political immaturity, affected. Monolithic Ukraine will be easier to integrate into Europe and NATO.
The European Union was, of course, interested in the industrial potencies of Eastern Ukraine, but it always looked cautiously at anti-Western sentiments in the Crimea, in the Donbas, etc. The frankly non-European cultural beginnings of these regions, alien mentality, corruption and the mafia of the economy - all these were important factors hindering the EU's readiness for integration with Ukraine. In many ways, for the same reasons, Turkey has not been able to achieve EU membership for several decades. Without a Russian-language ballast, “Ukrainian” Ukraine will be a more attractive candidate for joining the EU and NATO. Therefore, the option of cutting back the country suits both Washington and Brussels.
As a result of these political tricks, the wolf must remain almost full, and the sheep - almost intact. True, without one shin and without one hoof, but still alive. And in time to run again, the experts promise to supply her with a prosthesis using the latest technology, i.e., to secure EU membership. Such is the amputational compromise. Therefore, Ukraine and shred. It is possible that the Geneva talks, which began today, will become the new Munich. However, there is still time to change everything. And if the West shows more determination, amputation can be limited to recognition of the annexation of Crimea, leaving the Southeast where it should be.
There is a simpler, more natural solution: the Ukrainian authorities must reconsider their priorities, recall that their main task is to protect their state and begin to defend it finally: close the borders, carry out a general mobilization, gather militia and fight off the enemy. And if she is unable to do this, then let her leave, or at least not interfere with those who are ready to resist the aggressors.
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