The United States failed to shake Russia
The reunification of the Crimea with Russia was an important milestone in the modern Russian stories and marked the rebirth of a great power - a power capable of defending its interests in the international arena on a par with other leading political players. And, it seems, the Crimea is only the beginning: in the near future, the Eurasian Union will be created, which will strengthen Russia's authority in the eyes of the world community. However, Washington is trying in every way to prevent the implementation of Moscow’s plans: the United States strongly opposes the strengthening of the Russian Federation, because it will create a serious threat to American hegemony in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
Why does America harm Russia?
The essence of the US strategy in Eurasia is to prevent the emergence of a state or group of states capable of challenging America globally. That is why Washington in every way interferes with the free development of the European Union, and also implements a policy of preventive containment of Russia and China. And most of all in the White House they fear the creation of a Eurasian Union, which the Western media have managed to christen "USSR 2.0".
The latest events in Ukraine are fully consistent with the logic of the White House. If Ukraine joins the Eurasian Union, the economic and military might of the new alliance will be incompatible with that of the current Customs Union and the CSTO. Washington’s goal is to ensure that the industrial complexes and transport infrastructure of the southeast do not go to Moscow. Human resources are no less important: with Ukraine, the mobilization potential of the Eurasian Union will increase by a third. It is necessary to remember about the Soviet legacy - hydroelectric power stations, nuclear power plants and other industrial facilities erected in Ukraine by builders from different parts of the USSR.
It is not surprising that the reunification of the Crimea with the historic homeland agitated politicians from the White House. America’s plan failed: it turned out that it’s not enough to plant people loyal to Washington in Kiev, we must also keep the rest of the country. But, alas, Barack Obama has practically no leverage in Ukraine. Of course, he can call Alexander Turchinov or Arsen Avakov, but who will execute their orders? Practice shows that the powers of the junta are limited to maximum boundaries of the Kiev region.
But if Barack Obama cannot change the development of events in Ukraine, he will try to put pressure directly on Russia. However, here the set of available tools is small. The White House is likely to resort to symbolic gestures like loud statements about the upcoming "tough sanctions", or start talking about all sorts of "red lines" and "recent warnings" that Obama has loved since the beginning of the war in Syria. However, other options are possible, for example, attempts to split Russian society from the inside, as it was done in Ukraine.
Ukrainian script in Russia did not work
What measures did Barack Obama take to “rock the boat”? First of all, the American president introduced pinpoint sanctions against Russian entrepreneurs and officials who have considerable authority and influence both inside the state and beyond. The goal is to provoke grumbling among the representatives of the highest political elite, to force them to renounce the policy pursued by the country's president, Vladimir Putin.
Something similar was managed to turn in Ukraine, when, under the threat of sanctions, many members of parliament opposed Viktor Yanukovych. However, Ukrainian politicians have always been scattered, each of them defends only his narrow interests, and state thinking seems to them to be something strange and inexplicable.
The Russian vertical of power is much stronger and more stable than the Ukrainian horizontal. Moscow really thinks about the future of the country. Personal sanctions against Russian officials were to embroil the political elite of Russia, to restore it against the country's president, Vladimir Putin. But the insidious plan failed: the leadership of the Russian Federation demonstrated cohesion and patriotism, unprecedented for many states of the Western world.
After all, officials are well aware that the United States deliberately impose restrictions against Russian citizens, provoking them. Do not give in to provocations - the best way to avoid negative consequences. The sanctions themselves are not dangerous at all.
The correct line of behavior chosen by the political elite of the country suggests that in the near future the Russian Federation will present many more surprises in the foreign policy arena. After all, from the first battle Russia came out victorious, and even hardened! A country that is monolithic inside will be able to cope with any challenges, regardless of their nature and complexity.
On the "internal front" without change
Rallies, which are periodically held in Moscow, are few and should not cause concern. The United States has long been trying to open an "internal front" against Russia, but all plans fail. Unlike the Ukrainian one, the Russian opposition cannot carry out a coup d'état: the forces are not the same. The 2011-2013 demonstrations revealed that the population of the country does not share the ideas that are popular among the so-called "non-system oppositionists". In addition, Russia does not have its own Galicia, whence tens of thousands of radicals could descend into the capital. All regions of the country are loyal to the Kremlin, and frank betrayal, attempts to sell abroad is not observed.
To prepare provocateurs-mercenaries in Russia will not work. The Russian special services are not Ukrainian, they have good training and a wealth of operational experience, so that they can neutralize any internal threats to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the country.
The fight against the “fifth column” is also being conducted at the legislative level. What, for example, is the well-known Law “On Non-Profit Organizations”, tightening control over the activities of foreign agents (NPOs). Using this law, it will turn out to stop any attempts by the United States to provide financial assistance to the Russian extra-systemic opposition. The authorities, based on the experience of the coup in Kiev, in the near future will adopt a series of other laws aimed at strengthening the vertical of government.
Limits of American Power
In this case, the United States will remain to harm Russia with the help of economic sanctions. But in this case, its European allies, closely connected with the Russian market and dependent on energy supplies from Russia, will suffer from the actions of Washington. It is not known whether it will be possible to impose any sanctions at all: one thing is personal restrictions for individual citizens, and quite another is breaking strategic partnerships.
At the same time, Russia is implementing the reforms necessary to strengthen the Russian economy. The measures taken by the government are surprising in their scale: in the near future, the country will have a national payment system and its own rating credit agencies, and Russian banks have already begun to use the ruble instead of the euro and the dollar. The complex of such measures is the best way to combat dependence on foreign companies, which are used to dictate their economic policies to sovereign states. The current economic crisis is precisely due to this dictate.
The option of using the armed forces does not consider the White House at all: after the failed campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, American society does not want to get involved in any armed conflicts. In addition, American troops in Ukraine will be unfriendly met by the local population, which does not want the occupation of their country.
Moving American warships and airplanes closer to the Russian borders is a bluff. Washington will not attack the nuclear power because it is afraid of retaliation. The only chance to defeat Russia is to act not from the outside, but from the inside.
But, as noted above, the aspirations of Barack Obama to split the Russian society did not materialize: Russia rallied together like a fortress, and well holds the blow. We can safely say that the country will endure the period of the American diplomatic offensive and withstand the few sanctions that can be imposed on individuals and commercial organizations from Russia at the initiative of the American president. But Obama has little time: every day the authority of the sluggish US president is melting before our eyes. A little more, and no one in the wake of the White House will go, than Russia will be able to profitably use.
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