Military Review

We live in the XXI century - war is impossible

32
Every day, Ukraine is increasingly plunging into a serious economic, political and ethnic crisis. The scientific director of the German-Russian Forum, advisor to the president of the German-Russian Chamber of Commerce, member of the Advisory Board of the International Debating Club told about its consequences, the possibilities of resolving conflict issues, as well as the role of Russia and the West in determining the future fate of Ukraine. Valdai "Alexander Rahr.


- What is the line of Germany in relation to the Ukrainian crisis?

Aleksandr Rar: Germany during the financial crisis has gained leadership positions in Europe. In addition, the Germans began to feel their responsibility in matters of security on the European continent, including in Ukraine. Therefore, if Germany takes the side of Russia now, it will lose support and confidence from other EU member states, which require tough sanctions against Moscow. In other words, in such conditions, Berlin needs to take into account the opinion of all European countries in the Ukrainian conflict.

But at the same time, German policy is trying to leave all the doors and air vents for dialogue with the Russian side. This is recognized by Moscow, which in the present situation, perhaps, only with Germany, and is ready to discuss issues of European security.

We live in the XXI century - war is impossible

Alexander Rahr is sure: the West has no money to restore Ukraine


- Do you support, as a European, appeals in the EU to introduce new sanctions against Russia?

Aleksandr Rar: Sanctions on a country like Russia will provoke retaliatory sanctions. That is, a blow will be struck not only in the Russian economy, but also in the EU economy. Particularly affected are those countries that have built close and mutually beneficial relations in Moscow over the years, as well as made large investments in the Russian economy.

- Do you agree that it is the Western world that is guilty of the Ukrainian crisis?

Aleksandr Rar: There are several reasons for this crisis. First: Ukraine for 25 years could not become a strong, economically developed state. In addition, it is very dependent on Russian energy, and politically and economically - on external factors. In its current state, Kiev is not capable of making sovereign decisions.

The second: the Ukrainian nation could not become united. No European country is experiencing such a serious internal division.

Third reason: Ukraine has become the object of geopolitical struggle between Russia and the West. Let me remind you that the conflict that we are seeing now began last fall, when the European Union forced President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych to sign an association with the EU and automatically thereby wanted to close the entrance to Ukraine for the Customs Union and the Eurasian Union. In fact, Ukraine’s withdrawal to the West in a few years would lead this country to NATO membership. Such a prospect was and remains completely unacceptable for Russia.

Thus, against the background of the clash of interests between Russia and the West, a real geopolitical battle began. If we lived a few hundred years ago, we would see a real battle. But since we live in the 21st century, war is impossible. But geopolitical frictions nonetheless have a place to be. The situation is aggravated by the fact that the parties to the conflict cannot find a common position that would lead to a stabilization of the situation in Ukraine. Unfortunately, time does not play into the hands of Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities are losing control over their country, the economy is collapsing, the army is missing. The country is also ruined by the deepest ethnic conflict between its western and eastern parts. This is a very dangerous and protracted crisis.

- But there must be some way out of this crisis ...

Aleksandr Rar: The federalization of Ukraine is the only correct way out. But federalization should not be the first step towards the collapse of the country. Federalization should be supported by all conflicting parties. Of course, it will lead to the decentralization of power. But the regions will get more responsibility and rights. Thus, Eastern Ukraine will be able to establish economic relations with Russia, and Western Ukraine with the European Union. The same goes for cultural issues, language policy, education, and even teaching stories.

However, I stress that federalization should be strengthened by all parties. We cannot allow Ukraine to disintegrate the very next day after the declaration of federalization only because its western and eastern parts could not agree on something.

- What, in your opinion, will be the scenario of events, if Ukraine does not agree to federalization?

Aleksandr Rar: We live in the XXI century, and no one wants war in Eastern Europe. Therefore, Russia, the United States, the European Union and Ukraine will sit down at the negotiating table and will be able to agree on a joint stabilization package. Moreover, the Crimea is already not in question. He has already gone to Russia and in the West they understand that it is impossible to bring him back. I think that in the process of such negotiations the parties will come to an understanding of the need for the federalization of Ukraine. It would, of course, be the perfect scenario.

The negative scenario is the bloody collapse of Ukraine, the complete decline of the country. This scenario will not lead to the normalization of a situation that will simply become uncontrollable.

- What role will the financial support of the West play in stabilizing the situation in Ukraine?

Aleksandr Rar: The West decided to help Ukraine for several reasons. Firstly, the West does not want the collapse of this country. Secondly, the European Union and the United States fear that the situation in Ukraine may lead to war. And most importantly: Europeans are terribly afraid of the restoration of the Russian Empire. The Western world is ready to give the last money to Ukraine just so that it does not fall into the orbit of Russia.

But if you soberly assess the situation, then you need to recognize that the West does not have the kind of money that is necessary for the restoration of Ukraine. The United States and the European Union can only give loans. And this means that Ukraine will have to return them. In addition, she will have to carry out very painful reforms for her economy, politics and social sphere. Many unemployed people will appear, hundreds of factories will close, protests of the population will cover the country. So granting loans is not the best option.

From my point of view, there is only one correct way out - this is joint assistance to Ukraine from the West and Russia. Especially Russia, which has all the keys for stabilizing the situation in Ukraine, and for destabilization.

- Was it a shock for the West how Russia defends its interests in Ukraine?

Aleksandr RarA: Yes, the West is in great shock. Many in the European Union are only now beginning to realize that in a few weeks a referendum was held and the Crimea became part of Russia in front of the West, which was unable to react to it in any way.

- Will the crisis in Ukraine lead to global changes in world geopolitics?

Aleksandr Rar: So far this is only a local conflict. But everyone understands that the fate of many European regions that are in favor of self-determination depends on the outcome of this conflict.

The second point: when the conflict in Ukraine calms down, lengthy and serious discussions about the future system of European security will begin. Because the return to the old system will be impossible. The West will have to admit that it pursued the wrong policy towards Russia and Ukraine. The West will also have to admit that the Russian factor has become dominant in Europe. I think that in the future we will see numerous important conferences with the participation of the leaders of the European Union and Russia on the creation of a common free economic zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok. There will also be a general security interest. This would be the most loyal and constructive scenario, since sanctions and isolation can only bring us back to the Cold War.

Another important point: the world order will change. Everyone will see that the world has become multipolar, that there are countries offering their concepts on key security issues.

So the local crisis in Ukraine will have huge and deep consequences for the whole world.
Author:
Originator:
http://www.rg.ru/2014/04/16/rar.html
32 comments
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  1. Good cat
    Good cat April 17 2014 16: 13
    +4
    Let them dial the telephone number of the "maydanutyh" and explain to them what is good and what is bad.
    1. Phase
      Phase April 17 2014 16: 21
      +4
      Quote: Good cat
      Let him dial the telephone number of the "maydanutyh" and explain to them what is good and what is bad

      They already understand everything, but serve those who fear the strengthening of Russia. But strategically, he is certainly right. The West has NO such money to really help Ukraine. She can expect help only from Russia, since
      - Russia has money;
      - Russia needs products of Ukrainian industry and we are ready to buy it.

      But we must understand that Ukrainian-Russian cooperation will now go on ALL other conditions. Ukraine used to have two trump cards:
      - gas transit
      - Black Sea Fleet.

      There are no more of these trump cards: the Nord Stream was built and Crimea became Russian. Moreover, now, in light of the fact that we have Crimea in full growth, the South Stream will begin. So, at the same time, we will also leave the Turks without transit prospects.
      And the federalization of Ukraine is just a scenario of its absorption in parts. It is clear that the Russian-speaking regions will sell their products to Russia and receive gas at discounts due to mutual settlements. Well, live richer of course. The rest will look, look and also catch up.
      1. Ased
        Ased April 17 2014 16: 25
        +4
        If war is not possible, can you remove missile defense around our borders?
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. PATTIY
        PATTIY April 17 2014 19: 03
        +3
        Quote: Phase
        - Russia has money;

        do not make me laugh! there is money, but not about their (Ukraine) honor.
        Let's first look at salaries and pensions in Germany and Russia and compare.
        We have a lot of household chores, housing and communal services alone is worth something. Roads are generally darkness!
        Enough to help, we are not the USSR, but Russia. The time has passed when the USSR looted all the loot for loyalty.
        1. MAGGNUM
          MAGGNUM April 17 2014 20: 30
          0
          By the way, in Germany they are not very happy with their financial situation. Including pensioners. And stop believing in the myth that living in Europe is good !!!
    2. Andrey Yuryevich
      Andrey Yuryevich April 17 2014 16: 43
      +2
      rather: life without war is not possible ....
      1. ya.seliwerstov2013
        ya.seliwerstov2013 April 17 2014 17: 05
        0
        As soon as war becomes reality, any opinion that does not take it into account begins to sound
        wrong.
    3. asar
      asar April 17 2014 18: 59
      0
      The Maidan people will not understand the full depth of Alexander Rar’s thoughts! Unfortunately!
  2. svetlomor
    svetlomor April 17 2014 16: 18
    +1
    The Western world is ready to give the last money to Ukraine only so that it does not fall into the orbit of Russia.
    If cookies and sukhpai is a new type of money, then Ukraine is saved.
    1. Baikal
      Baikal April 17 2014 16: 25
      +2
      Ohhhh, yes!) Dry packs)
    2. dimdimich71
      dimdimich71 April 17 2014 16: 29
      +1
      Cookies issued a jam? Will they take a loan?
  3. andj61
    andj61 April 17 2014 16: 24
    +1
    The West will also have to admit that the Russian factor in Europe has become dominant. I think that in the future we will see numerous important conferences with the participation of the leaders of the European Union and Russia on the creation of a common free economic zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok. There will also be a discussion of common security interests. This would be the most faithful and constructive scenario, since sanctions and isolation can only bring us back to the Cold War.


    Fresh tradition, but hard to believe!
    The West as a whole, at the level of NATO and the European Union (it happened with individual countries), has never built relations with us on an equal footing. They always wanted to teach Russia how teachers should evaluate its actions. They always considered us dangerous - and wait, we will believe it.
  4. mamont5
    mamont5 April 17 2014 16: 30
    0
    "From my point of view, there is only one and only sure way out - this is joint assistance to Ukraine from the West and Russia. Especially Russia, which has all the keys to both stabilize the situation in Ukraine and destabilize it."

    That is the very thing that Putin offers, for which our diplomats are fighting. And maybe the EU (but not the USA) will finally understand this.

    "We must not allow Ukraine to disintegrate on the very next day after the announcement of federalization only because its western and eastern parts could not agree on something."

    And this is quite possible, because the "Kiev authorities", the filing of their masters - the United States, literally pushes to such an outcome.
    1. genabukin
      genabukin April 17 2014 16: 58
      +1
      it is necessary to offer it with profit, in fact, the federal republic of Malorosia has already taken place and I see no reason for the EU to get this market, but in Western women you can also talk about loans under YOUR conditions
  5. sem-yak
    sem-yak April 17 2014 16: 31
    +1
    I don’t understand what kind of lada Europe introduced the euro into circulation! They are so wonderful l ... t f ... the states that they would have given them a dollar for a ride! And what are the states on this continent doing? They have their own continent der ... m overgrown, there are problems all the time, that they are on another continent in "someone else's underwear" digging! And it's time for the Evrams to be determined while famously quiet, and then BAC and Russia are washed from all sides by the oceans, and everyone has a Russian language!
  6. ururu
    ururu April 17 2014 16: 31
    +1
    It seems that Europe cannot imagine its future without a shepherd. Russia cannot understand one thing; the sixes do not need it, but the ruling there and the other cannot and cannot.
  7. chastener
    chastener April 17 2014 16: 33
    0
    Many in the European Union are only now beginning to realize that in a few weeks a referendum was held and Crimea became part of Russia in front of the West, which could not react to it in any way. (C)
    Gold words!!! good
  8. tokin1959
    tokin1959 April 17 2014 16: 47
    +1
    either the division of Ukraine immediately into western and eastern, followed by the annexation of the eastern part to Russia, or temporary federalization as a way to disengagement on the principle of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. and again - the accession of the eastern part to Russia.
    but not a complete state.
    Ukraine project turned out to be insolvent, it’s time to admit it, manure with gold cannot be glued.
    there should be no single Ukraine, otherwise we will again step on the same rake.
  9. Hamul
    Hamul April 17 2014 16: 49
    0
    Uh no guys, this is probably not the point.
    From my bell tower, it seems that the West just wants to crush Russia economically - to make it a raw materials appendage.

    Quote:
    “But if we soberly assess the situation, then we must admit that the West does not have the money that is necessary to restore Ukraine. The US and the European Union can only give loans. This means that Ukraine will have to return them. In addition, it will have to spend Reforms that are painful for their economy, politics and social sphere. Many unemployed people will appear, hundreds of factories will be closed, the country will be swept by protest actions of the population. So providing loans is not the best option.

    From my point of view, there is only one single right way out - this is joint assistance to Ukraine from the West and Russia. Especially Russia, which has all the keys to both stabilize the situation in Ukraine and destabilize it. "

    Russia in fact only invests in Ukraine - the West is waiting, waiting ... .... The West is waiting for Russia to throw its money into the black hole, and everyone will be happy again.
    Along with the military revival of the Russian Federation, the West is also frightened by the fact that due to the sanctions, the Russian Federation will begin production of various currently imported goods - and the West will also lose its sales market.
    And America in general is in a trump situation - it is establishing its sales market in Europe, crowding out its main competitor + strengthening its influence on the economic and political situation and on the minds of average citizens of Georope - look at the root, as Kozma Prutkov used to say.
  10. Andrey82
    Andrey82 April 17 2014 16: 52
    +3
    [quote] [We live in the XXI century - war is impossible
    Why is it impossible? So they thought a hundred years ago and made a mistake. Want peace, get ready for war.
    1. siberalt
      siberalt April 17 2014 17: 12
      0
      Wars did not stop. Local nuclear war is not possible. Only global. And such a global predictor is not needed. Geshefta zero, and for health - without guarantees.
  11. Quantum
    Quantum April 17 2014 17: 06
    +1
    He reasoned correctly, but it was impossible to curb the national minorities in Ukraine.
    There is only one option: the split of Ukraine into 2-3 entities. In any case, three
    the western regions should leave Ukraine and disappear into the wilds of the EU.
  12. ya.seliwerstov2013
    ya.seliwerstov2013 April 17 2014 17: 07
    +2
    Without violence against rapists it is impossible to rid the people of rapists.
  13. siberalt
    siberalt April 17 2014 17: 08
    0
    Rahr is a representative of the moderate liberal wing. Actually, like the rest of Valdai. But they are also the necessary intermediaries between the Russian world and the radical West. By the way, Putin answered his questions today.
    1. 11111mail.ru
      11111mail.ru April 17 2014 17: 32
      +2
      Quote: siberalt
      Rar is a representative of the moderate liberal wing.

      THOSE. if he shoots me or you, he will do it without pleasure?
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. siberalt
        siberalt April 17 2014 18: 57
        0
        Valdai "Shoots"? Or am I missing something?
        And if about playing off one people to the mass murder of yourself, then think for yourself. There are always thugs, but this is from the field of crime. From the same position as the Kiev position of the junta. Therefore, the workers of Donbass cannot lay down their arms in any way. And how the separate "He" will shoot or not, hell knows. This can happen in our country anywhere in Russia and at any time. It's called murder.
  14. cerbuk6155
    cerbuk6155 April 17 2014 17: 17
    +1
    SOUTH-EAST must secede and create YOUR STATE or join RUSSIA! And HE and WE will only benefit from this. drinks
  15. Same lech
    Same lech April 17 2014 17: 48
    +1
    But at the same time, German politics is trying to leave all the doors and windows for dialogue with the Russian side.


    Do not tell .... what air vents and doors ... Germans think too much about themselves .. now RUSSIA decides to whom these air vents and doors open ... heh heh, you know, some kind of children.
  16. koshh
    koshh April 17 2014 18: 08
    +1
    Quote "But at the same time, German politics is trying to leave all doors and vents for dialogue with the Russian side."
    Naturally, they also remember that we are on the eve of the May 9th celebration. Fear for their tourists around the world. "And whichever side I am, on whatever land I pass, I will never forget a German ..."
  17. mabuta
    mabuta April 17 2014 18: 14
    +1
    Take Germany mature replenishment!
  18. biglow
    biglow April 17 2014 18: 14
    0
    it seems that Europe has turned into an old and evil old woman who hardly understands what is happening around ... wassat
  19. kocclissi
    kocclissi April 17 2014 18: 24
    0
    Well, yes, not everything is so simple in this madhouse!
  20. sv68
    sv68 April 17 2014 18: 49
    0
    sit down at the negotiating table with the power of the attackers - an attack in itself. You can’t even think about talking with the bastards who sent the army to destroy the people who are still their own side
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. siberalt
      siberalt April 17 2014 19: 30
      0
      And no one spoke about the "common negotiating table". Not to be confused, though not easy. Here it is. Either by phone, and then to my office, or we will find another who will agree to this and give the necessary evidence for the first one. Proven for centuries. That's all. There is no counter-imperative - there is no bazaar! laughing For the life of me, but without a serious presentation - no way. And do not be confused by the term "negotiations". Or can he do without terrorists? To deprive them of the right to their own "claim" - to blow up their brains to commit any madness. Let us be polite, gentlemen, comrades, brothers! This is our path. We will not hang, but judging by all the people is in Russian. So it was and so it will be.
  21. Sergey S.
    Sergey S. April 17 2014 18: 58
    0
    The West will have to admit that it pursued an incorrect policy towards Russia and Ukraine. The West will also have to admit that the Russian factor in Europe has become dominant. I think that in the future we will see numerous important conferences with the participation of the leaders of the European Union and Russia on the creation of a common free economic zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok.
    There will also be a discussion of common security interests. This would be the most faithful and constructive scenario, since sanctions and isolation can only bring us back to the Cold War.
    Another important point: the world order will change. Everyone will see that the world has become multipolar, that there are countries offering their concepts on key security issues.

    The author is fair and logical.
    I think he has no friends or listeners in the west.

    So he wrote it for Russia ...
    1. Sergei75
      Sergei75 April 18 2014 00: 29
      0
      All these slogans about debts never stopped the West.
  22. Sergei75
    Sergei75 April 18 2014 00: 29
    0
    “We live in the XNUMXst century, and no one wants a war in the East of Europe” - again I am plagued by vague doubts - weren't these words we heard when they tore apart Yugoslavia, and it was not the East, but almost the center of Europe.
  23. daemon
    daemon April 18 2014 03: 32
    0
    Unfortunately, time does not play into the hands of Ukraine. The Ukrainian authorities are losing control of their country, the economy is collapsing, the army is missing ... Blah, blah, blah ukrina as the country came J.O.P.A. it is no longer there, only its diametrically different parts remained, such as west and east, and esche and laying in the form of a center but about not later ...
    Sanya Rar may be a well-known cake, but in Ukraine, unlike me, for 23 years he did not live and did not tolerate everything that happened there ... so they listened to him and began to think for themselves !!! Most of my relatives live in the east in Malorosia or in Russia, and I myself, being a "native" (and by birthright) resident of central Ukraine, never treated the miscarriage of the USSR, with special love, never felt pride in Ukraine and did not consider it a nenko ... I have always been proud of the achievements of Russia and have never identified myself with "nenko" .... but enough about me, my housemates, two Jews and a couple of Ukrainians and the ardent henchmen of "Eurodowns" who, since November 2013, yelled fiercely and about izurbaturskuyu power and about "bandytsku vladu", etc., etc. At the same time, they actively participated in the Mayday both in Kiev and in Vinnitsa, they clearly said that changes were coming and they would stop tightening their belts, but with all this, these people firmly believed in the inviolability of the Ukrainian state ...
    Well ... well .. we saw your efforts and their results in action. I would like to thank you for accelerating the transition of Ukraine to the side of its real ally.