Military Review

Ukraine's split: possible scenarios

86
Ukraine's split: possible scenariosUkraine picked up a very common disease in Europe - the separatism of rich regions. Donbass took the path of Flanders, Catalonia, the Italian “League of the North”, Scotland and other “small motherlands”, which, having a relatively developed economy or excessive resources, refuse to feed the rest of the country, which they turned out to be for various reasons. And just want to separate from her.
In the case of Eastern Ukraine, this syndrome was complicated by the fact that it was attempted to be made to make an undesirable and simply unprofitable geopolitical choice - to go towards rapprochement with the EU to the detriment of relations with Russia. And this was done by the political forces of the subsidized western regions, who seized power in Kiev. Thus, the current events on the left bank of the Dnieper have a double background - both geopolitical and economic.


Four regions of Eastern Ukraine - Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions - produce in total more than half of Ukrainian GDP. As of the end of last year, wages were higher than the national average (that is, more than $ 380 per month) was recorded in Kiev and four southeastern regions - Donetsk, Lugansk, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporozhye. And according to estimates of the Ukrainian Foundation for Effective Governance, the five most competitive regions of Ukraine are Kiev, Kharkiv, Odessa, Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions - that is, the capital, east and south.

What choice does the new Kiev authorities propose to accept in the country? The nine hundred pages of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, developed in deep secrecy (even Yanukovych didn’t see them almost until the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius) does not promise the Eastern regions anything but an economic collapse. Full trade liberalization with the EU, almost complete ban on state subsidies to the economy, adoption of technical standards of the European Union — moreover, reconfiguration of all sectors of the economy to these standards should occur at the expense of “recustomized”, and so on. The results can be approximately as follows: the heavy industry in the southeast will die off as an untenable competitor of European concerns, the Donbas coal mines will be closed, since in the EU coal has long been considered non-ecological fuel. The national gas transmission system will come under EU control; the financial system is under the control of Western banks (as happened in most countries of Central and Eastern Europe when they joined the EU).

The uniqueness of the Euro-Ukrainian agreement lies in the fact that it provides for an “expanded and in-depth” association - not like the standard association agreements that Brussels has concluded with many countries, including the regions of the Middle East and North Africa. There are fewer pages and obligations are not. It also provides for obligations, in fact, a member state of the European Union, but at the same time - no rights. All integration projects - starting with a visa-free regime - at the level of good wishes.

For "Euro-enthusiasts" from Western Ukraine, all this is acceptable: they have nothing special to lose in economic terms - there is no large-scale industry, but there is a practice of going to work in the EU. But for Eastern Ukraine to come closer to the European Union on these terms is tantamount to economic hara-kiri. This is precisely the outcome of the possible reconciliation of the two parts of an almost split state while maintaining its current authority.

What can happen in the event of a split in eastern Ukraine? There are two options: the entry of "rebel regions" into Russia or the creation by them of a formally independent state. In the first case, the boundaries that for a quarter of a century interfered with the normal operation of a single economic complex, which once constituted the most developed part of the USSR, will be eliminated. And as a "bonus", the eastern regions of Ukraine will receive free access to the markets of Belarus and Kazakhstan, with which the Customs Union has been established with Russia.

The second variant of the “split” scenario is also associated with the Customs Union: the state of Eastern Ukraine would first of all ask for it. But serious problems are inevitable here: the breakaway part of Ukraine would remain unrecognized and undergo a boycott by the world community. And it’s far from the fact that Kazakhstan would agree to include such a problem partner in the CU. Thus, the status and economic prospects of an independent state of the East Ukrainian regions will be a big question.

Finally, there is still the possibility of a peaceful scenario of resolving the crisis: the federalization of Ukraine, the division of power between the political forces of the western and eastern parts of the country (it does not matter - equally, fraternally or by concepts) and the development of a compromise foreign policy. What in this case awaits the south-eastern regions? Most likely, nothing new: the same position of a stranger among his own and not too much of his own among strangers. It will not be possible to take full advantage of the benefits of the Customs Union, or the preferences of the EU. After all, it is impossible to combine forever two diametrically opposed development vectors. We still have to sponsor the western regions of the country and suffer from the struggle of the oligarchic clans. So, Eastern Ukraine will increasingly look at Flanders with Catalonia and learn from their experience of "civilized separatism."
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http://www.utro.ru/articles/2014/04/15/1189211.shtml
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  1. mirag2
    mirag2 April 16 2014 07: 13
    +10
    I listened yesterday to Makarova (ONF), he says, we will introduce troops almost tomorrow.
    In general, he is aware of government actions.
    1. platitsyn70
      platitsyn70 April 16 2014 07: 31
      +10
      and why politicians are so corrupt, for thirty pieces of silver they are ready to sell their people.
      1. Denis
        Denis April 16 2014 07: 39
        +9
        Quote: platitsyn70
        and why politicians are so corrupt, for thirty pieces of silver they are ready to sell their people.
        1. Ptah
          Ptah April 16 2014 08: 12
          +19
          All Slavs we are sisters and brothers
          И one holy Russia MOTHER to us
          But overseas creatures are asexual
          They pushed us without our will


          You dubbed yourself "junior"
          Begged us to be your elders
          We are great, strong, strict
          You are naive, angry, hungry

          You do not need a bourgeois geyrop
          All the blood vyput-stay in ... ope
          Just remember Light Blue
          Russia will not accept you back

          YOU are great - arrogantly
          Where are the Gagarins, Mendeleevs?
          You'll never be great
          For Europe, stay wild

          Wash toilets, work in brothels
          Not such freedom you wanted
          Are you tired of Moscow?
          Independent you did not

          From the luminary Russian mothers
          Settle in Obama's Barracks
          Well, God bless you sisters and brothers
          Cross over we will be waiting for you

          We forgive you and you forgive
          Come back soon.
          We are all brothers we are S-L-A-B-I-N-E
          Well, see you soon. Hi Obama
          . hi
          1. Corsair
            Corsair April 16 2014 13: 36
            +1
            Quote: Ptah
            All Slavs we are sisters and brothers
            And one holy Russia MOTHER to us

      2. AVIATOR36662
        AVIATOR36662 April 16 2014 07: 41
        +3
        They sold their people a long time ago. Now there is a turn for resources with territories. But there is an iron saying: "There would be no happiness, but misfortune helped!"
      3. mad
        mad April 16 2014 07: 45
        +7
        fear God, what kind of people, all the leaders of the coup have long been citizenship or, at worst, a residence permit in the West. There are also accounts to which for EACH day of unrest a certain amount falls + good bonuses for association with the EU and NATO are promised. I hope for the Crimea they were fined ... here's a blood business.
      4. GRune
        GRune April 16 2014 08: 53
        +2
        Because everyone only thinks about his own pocket and that’s practically everywhere (we don’t take Singapore), this is called capitalism. By the way, it’s the same with us, only not everyone steals a little more conscience or fear, but half or% 40.
      5. Ev58
        Ev58 April 16 2014 09: 09
        +2
        "Politics are made by politicians, not people" is a well-known aphorism.
    2. mirag2
      mirag2 April 16 2014 07: 47
      +3
      I'm sorry, sealed up !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
      MARKOV, Sergey , not Makarov ...
      Sorry again.
    3. mirag2
      mirag2 April 16 2014 07: 50
      0
      I'm sorry, sealed up !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
      MARKOV, Sergey, not Makarov ...
      Sorry again.
    4. RUSS
      RUSS April 16 2014 10: 03
      +2
      What in this case awaits the southeastern regions? Most likely, nothing new: the same position of a stranger among his own and not too his own among strangers. It will not be possible to take full advantage of either the benefits of the Customs Union or the EU preferences.

      This is what federalization is not a way out of the crisis.
  2. Sasha_Bykov
    Sasha_Bykov April 16 2014 07: 14
    +12
    A ZOMBED MASS THINKS THAT EUROPE IS GOOD, AND CALL RUSSIA THE OCCUPANT, AND D & O T
  3. mirag2
    mirag2 April 16 2014 07: 15
    +8
    It smells like a real war.
    Technique in Yasinovataya:
    1. Corsair
      Corsair April 16 2014 09: 12
      +2
      Quote: mirag2
      It smells like a real war.
      Technique in Yasinovataya:

      And once I, a draftee, went from the region of the military registration and enlistment office of Donetsk (in which the junta’s troops were now seated), through the Yasinovataya station (through which the troops are now going to crush their own people)

      Bitter and ashamed of what is happening ...
      1. vlad63
        vlad63 April 16 2014 10: 29
        +2
        Similarly.
        1. Shuriken
          Shuriken April 16 2014 15: 33
          +1
          Same thing. November 1986.
  4. svetlomor
    svetlomor April 16 2014 07: 17
    +12
    the federalization of Ukraine, the separation of powers between the political forces of the western and eastern parts of the country (it doesn’t matter equally, fraternally or by definition) and the development of a compromise foreign policy
    Yes, what kind of federation, after all that was only a divorce, even with the breaking of dishes.
    1. Lantau
      Lantau April 16 2014 07: 21
      +9
      Yes, what kind of federation, after all that was only a divorce, even with the breaking of dishes.

      And not only dishes, but at best muzzles. And I really do not want that to be so. If a divorce, then quietly and peacefully without annoying each other.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  5. Same lech
    Same lech April 16 2014 07: 18
    +25
    The second option at this stage is more preferable for RUSSIA.

    Firstly, less load on the budget of RUSSIA (now it is not so rubber)
    Secondly, internationally, there will be nothing to complain about RUSSIA ... everything can be attributed to the will of the local population.
    Thirdly, greater freedom of action and time for a competent decision-making for the leadership of RUSSIA.
    And then ....

    I believe that now we need to act especially calmly and not succumb to the emotions and calls of some citizens to drive the cart in front of the horse ... everything has its time.

    The Russian-speaking population will never have peace with GALICIA ..... listen at least to the crazy ideas of FARION, which is a member of an illegitimate government IN KIEV.
    1. Sid.74
      Sid.74 April 16 2014 07: 53
      +25
      Quote: The same LYOKHA
      Peace with GALICIA among the Russian-speaking population will never be ....

      Who knows, without the support of Kiev, snbo, all Russophobia will quickly disappear! The people are motley there, a couple of years of the correct information and even there will stop jumping! The fascist freedom party is simply paid by Canadian Nazis, there will be no financing from the West, everything will end quickly! Actually, all fuss and went after outlined laws on NGOs similar to Russian ones!

      And here in LJ I got an interesting post!
      Some wild farce is going on. The head of the CIA arrives in Kiev in search of the "black-water" mercenaries who have disappeared in the vastness of Donbass. The men of Lugansk are driving a rusty tank across the fields in a "Niva". Disabled Tymoshenko announces the recruitment of his army of volunteers. In Kramatorsk, another army of bandits disguised as bandits loudly and awkwardly attacks an airfield that no one needs. Zhirinovsky calls the degenerate Paruby and sends a warning from the Kremlin. He blushes with his ears and swaggers in front of the camera of the Afghan-Afghan journalist Nayem, with whose report about the Euromaidan all this confusion began. The peasants of Krematorsk take prisoner the USSR champion in Greco-Roman wrestling, who was recently proclaimed the deputy secretary of the NSDC and sent to lead the operation to clean up civilians. He went out to the peasants as if to tell them that they were terrorists. The men believed and took him hostage.

      Meanwhile, in Kiev, a raid of legal extremists is besieged by illegal extremists who demand to act more extremist and accuse official extremists of having been bought by Putin. In response, the same accusations follow - that Putin sent under the Rada pseudo-Maidanites who are trying to destabilize the situation at the crucial moment. While the extremists of Kiev are arguing which of them is the more bought by Putin, a criminal case is being instituted against a candidate beaten by peaceful protestors for the hetmans of non-existent Ukraine - apparently, because he remained alive. Another candidate was not allowed into the television studio under the threat of beating, the so-called Avtomaydanovtsy - of course, bought by Putin along with tires. On TV, the people are simultaneously convinced of two things: that Ukraine is one and all around the brothers and that part of this people are terrorists and separatists. The funny thing is that many viewers believe both.

      A hellish mixture of big top circus, walk-fields and export democracy. The feeling that the script was written by a rare Hollywood type Stalone. I would like to press the "off" button.
      1. Riperbahn
        Riperbahn April 16 2014 08: 33
        +4
        Early "off" - we'll see more. The big top so rarely comes to us :(
      2. major071
        major071 April 16 2014 10: 01
        +8
        Sid. 74 (2) RU

        Eugene, hi I read your post. good I do not agree on one thing, it’s not a big top, it’s much worse. In Ukraine, now in full swing walks a branch of the clinic. Kashchenko laughing
        1. Sid.74
          Sid.74 April 16 2014 10: 32
          0
          Quote: major071
          In Ukraine, now in full swing walks a branch of the clinic. Kashchenko laughing

          Bugaga !!! laughing Well, the poet, of course, has his own exclusive vision of the situation !!! Vladimir, hi
      3. Polarfox
        Polarfox April 16 2014 11: 13
        +1
        Plus from the heart. Amazingly well written. I would also add hysterical appeals to a company of swindlers of various kinds of foreign organizations demanding the provision of financial assistance on a planetary scale.
    2. Filon
      Filon April 16 2014 08: 21
      +6
      Quote: The same LYOKHA
      internationally, there will be nothing to complain about RUSSIA ... everything can be attributed to the will of the local population.

      I cannot agree with you with all my desire ... Just look at what is happening now in the US and the EU! They work according to the principle "there is a reason - we blame, there is no reason - we invent and accuse". Their interpretation of any event initially goes through the "Russia is to blame" template. Read what the Americans write about Abkhazia and Ossetia ... - Nothing! For them, Russia has captured and is holding Georgia! Almost 6 years have passed, the truth about that conflict has already reached them "stopizzot" times, but the result is as a result of communicating with the Swedish wall.
      1. Sid.74
        Sid.74 April 16 2014 08: 41
        +3
        Quote: Filon
        but the result as a result of communicating with the Swedish wall.

        Yes you are right! hi An unrealistic and impossible task to prove evil that it is evil!
      2. PATTIY
        PATTIY April 16 2014 14: 17
        +1
        Quote: Filon
        For them, Russia has captured and is holding Georgia!

        duck there Galstukosos lives + lectures at the University. Future Russophobia.
    3. Horly
      Horly April 16 2014 08: 55
      +2
      Or maybe before reasoning, ask the residents of Donbass themselves what they want. And then recently, more and more discussions about the future fate of the people begin ... Only now these people themselves forget to ask!
      1. Sid.74
        Sid.74 April 16 2014 09: 30
        0
        Quote: Horly
        Only now these people themselves forget to ask!

        Well, then they ask for a referendum to ask the people!
  6. Free Island
    Free Island April 16 2014 07: 22
    +7
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3FP1GpWE1k радиопереговоры Краматорска, Донецка и так далее...юго-восток Украины делится в прямом эфире по рации новостями, отчетами, очень интересно слушать информацию не зас....анную СМИ и так далее..уже 12 часов слушаю.....
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. GUKTU92
      GUKTU92 April 16 2014 07: 28
      +2
      In general, what do they say?
      1. Free Island
        Free Island April 16 2014 07: 32
        +2
        the guys from Kramatorsk said that there weren’t any victims, they landed a couple of dozen greens on a turntable at the airport, they didn’t speak Russian or be me ... like they spoke Ukrainian .. there are no victims, everything is quiet .. Turchinov nightmare people and the West
        ... the tank was taken from someone .. like in Slavyansk or something, I do not have time
  7. Sergg
    Sergg April 16 2014 07: 22
    +6
    It is very important for us that the two regions of Kharkov and Zaporizhzhya rise, then it is definitely possible to send troops. Kherson region will already enter from the territory of Crimea. All. Finita la comedy. Southeast Russian and it does not matter how much venal European politicians will yap.
    1. koshh
      koshh April 16 2014 14: 43
      0
      and Odessa too. But for some reason they do not rise. Probably they still have what they have. Till. All of them are also brought up in Ukraine. The principle is my hut on the edge. Only fried rooster should peck, only blood can bring them out of stagnation. And I don’t want blood ....
  8. pogis
    pogis April 16 2014 07: 22
    +7
    When will it all end ?!
    1. avant-garde
      avant-garde April 16 2014 07: 41
      +14
      Quote: pogis
      When will it all end ?!

      Only when it will be like this !!! yes
      1. Riperbahn
        Riperbahn April 16 2014 08: 39
        +5
        I remembered the joke.
        In the 90s, when we had an ass in Russia.
        Deputies revived Stalin and ask
        - Joseph Vissarionovich, what should we do? How to achieve order in Russia?
        Stalin:
        - To shoot deputies of all, to paint the Kremlin in green color!
        Deputies:
        “Why green?”
        Stalin:
        - I knew that the first paragraph will not cause objections! :)
    2. rasputin17
      rasputin17 April 16 2014 08: 17
      +1
      Very soon dear comrade! Before your eyes, the history of the Russian state is happening !! You will still be telling this to your grandchildren !! wink Have a little patience !!
  9. Humpty
    Humpty April 16 2014 07: 27
    +8
    Completely inappropriate formulation "separatism of rich regions." Hatred of the Russians led the outskirts to a split. Donbas for federalization? With whom, with Bandera's people "to federalize"? Seems to have already passed.
    The article frankly did not like.
    1. KOH
      KOH April 16 2014 07: 37
      +5
      There they shout Mos.ey on knives, and the scribe drives about a rich region ...
    2. koshh
      koshh April 16 2014 14: 57
      0
      Unfortunately, only through federalization will they be able to secede from Ukraine. If they themselves do not, then we cannot help. We cannot and should not spill the blood of our boys if everyone in Ukraine will sit in their huts and wait for Russia to come.
  10. Aldo
    Aldo April 16 2014 07: 30
    -3
    it will end when there is real long-term work with the CIS countries, focused on the future. And then everything is clumsy on the part of the Russian Federation. Now enter the troops again, contrary to all the rules of international law. I agree that the United States does this, but is it worth the Russian Federation to become like?
    1. tokin1959
      tokin1959 April 16 2014 08: 48
      +2
      and we have to look your way, how will Russian-speaking be cut?
      go to the site censor.net - a pro-Ukrainian site, there is news with comments.
      hair stand on end from the read.
    2. Free Island
      Free Island April 16 2014 13: 46
      +2
      Dear, I will ask you a question as an international lawyer - can you name at least one point of at least one international legal document that has been violated by Russia? It is unlikely that you will be able to do this, because you do not even know their names, and if you rush frantically to search in Tyrnet, you will still understand them only for a WEEK, and because you speak and, what is more scary, you think with words hammered into your head by the TV and the internet. "Russia has violated ALL the NORMS of international law!"))) I, as a lawyer, find it funny to read this, because I already know, but what I don’t know, I was not too lazy to find and read that Russia, as it should be, acts exclusively within the framework of international and domestic rights.
    3. igor36
      igor36 April 16 2014 14: 44
      +1
      Quote: Aldo
      it will end when there is real long-term work with the CIS countries, focused on the future. And then everything is clumsy on the part of the Russian Federation. Now enter the troops again, contrary to all the rules of international law. I agree that the United States does this, but is it worth the Russian Federation to become like?

      Who and where did the troops enter? To Crimea? So they were there according to the agreement between Ukraine and Russia. I live in the border region, the majority of the population is relatives in Ukraine. If your relatives lived in a troubled region, you would probably have a different opinion on the deployment of troops.
    4. koshh
      koshh April 16 2014 15: 00
      +1
      And we do not enter. You yourself are seething with fear. Why should we introduce if your soldiers, along with equipment, go over to the side of the eastern regions.
  11. Sergg
    Sergg April 16 2014 07: 33
    +8
    repost


    FROM TODAY, ODESSA AREA IS ANNOUNCED BY THE ODESSA PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC, WHERE ALL AUTHORITY BELONGS TO THE PEOPLE RESIDING ON ITS TERRITORY ONLY. April 16, 2014
    I called on all Odessa citizens and residents of the region, as well as the inhabitants of other nearby brotherly cities - all who already understood that the civil war had begun, which had already been opened! IF YOU DO NOT WANT A WAR THAT WILL MAKE A RUIN FROM OUR COUNTRY, LIKE SYRIA, AND LIFE THOUSANDS OF LIFE - MEAN IT IS TIME TO ACT !!! ODESSA IS ALREADY SURROUNDED BY ENEMY BLOCKPOSTS, A MILITARY SITUATION IS ALREADY INTRODUCED IN THE COUNTRY. YOUR PURPOSE TO UNDERSTAND IT TO EVERYONE WHO HAS NOT ASKED UP AND STARTING THE WHOLE CITY IN THE PEOPLE'S LIBERAL MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTH !!!
    TOMORROW AT 16.00 ODESSA SHOULD STAND UP !!! LITERALLY!!! YOUR TASK AT THE DESIGNATED TIME TO BLOCK THE TRANSPORT UNITS DESCRIBED ON THE MAP BY YOUR CARS, PEDESTRIANS - EXIT TO ZEBRA AND STOP THERE. CREATE THE MAXIMUM CONTRACTS ALL OVER THE CITY. EVERYONE WHO DOESN'T UNDERSTAND THAT THE WAR HAS COME TO US IN THE HOUSE SHOULD NOT TOMORROW GET TO WORK AND TO SERVICE !!! Check and skip only ambulances with the sick. DON'T MISS THE MILITARY AND THE POLICE!
    MAP
    THE FOLLOWING TODAY THESE WORKS WILL NOT ALREADY BE! MILITARY OCCUPATION IS HUNGER AND DEATH!
    EVERYONE WHO CONTINUES TO BELIEVE THAT THESE DOES NOT AFFECT THEM, SHOULD FINALLY SURVIVE !!! PRINT THIS TEXT BEFORE THE ACTION! PRINT POSTERS LATERED “NO CIVIL WAR!”, “NO FASCISM!”, “WE ARE NOT SYRIA!” and tp ... WE HAVE TO TAKE AUTHORITY IN OUR HANDS AND PROTECT MYSELF AND OUR CHILDREN FROM EXTERNAL AGGRESSION AS OUR GREATER FUNDS HAVE DONE IN 1917! OR MANY OF US DO NOT EXPERIENCE THIS SUMMER !!!
    ODESSA IS A DEMOCRATIC, MULTINATIONAL, TOLERANT CITY AND HERE RESOLVES THE MOST OF LOCAL RESIDENTS, NOT AGENTS OF THE CIA, SBU, FSB, GOVERNORS AND DEPUTIES ...
    WE ARE NOT FIGHTING EACH OTHER! WE RESPECT EVERYONE'S OPINION, BUT IF WE WANT DEMOCRACY, OUR OPINION MAY BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN A UNIVERSAL REGIONAL REFERENDUM! THIS REFERENDUM WILL NOT ALLOW US TO HOLD TODAY'S AUTHORITY! WE SHOULD HOLD IT HIMSELF!
    WE ARE NOT BARNS, BUT A PEOPLE WHICH DECIDES HIMSELF: IN WHICH COUNTRY TO LIVE, WITH WHICH TO BE FRIENDLY, TO WHICH GODS TO PRAY AND IN WHICH LANGUAGE TO SPEAK!
    NOBODY WILL SAVE US FROM THE LIBYAN-SYRIAN SCENARIO, ALREADY HAVE DEFEATED HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF LIFE EXCEPT US! !!! NEITHER PUTIN, NOR OBAMA, NOR YAROSH OR TYMOSHENKA !!!
    ONLY UNITED AND ORGANIZED, WE ARE STANDING! ONLY TAKING AUTHORITY IN OUR HANDS, WE WILL PROTECT MYSELF FROM TRAITORS AND EXTERNAL HOSPITAL TO US EXTERNAL AGGRESSORS !!!
    DO NOT WAIT FOR A CLEAR ACTION PLAN PRINTED AT EVERY POST, YOU KNOW THAT ODSITS AND RESIDENTS OF THE AREA NEED PORTO FRANCO, STRONG FRIENDS AND STRONG BORDERS !!! Enough for us to lie under the clans of the West and East !!! WE NEED TO STAND UP AND BECOME A SOUTH, WITH WHICH EVERYTHING WILL BE CONSIDERED !!! WE DO NOT NEED TO ASK AND REQUEST, FOR WHAT WE NEED, WE CAN'T OBJECTIVELY TODAY GIVE ANYONE !!!
    Tired of begging? TIRED TO PAY A TRIBUTE TO LOOKERS? TIRED BY SOMEONE TO FEED AND LIVE IN HOUSES WITH A LEAFING ROOF !? SO LET'S WORK ONLY ON YOURSELF AND DISTRIBUT OUR TAXES YOURSELF !!!
    YOU ALL KNOW WHERE POWER! YOU ALL KNOW THAT AUTHORITY IS A PEOPLE! DO YOU EVERYTHING KNOW THAT THE POLICE AND EAGLE WITH THE PEOPLE! DO NOT BE AFRAID OF ANYTHING, GO TO THE END AND ONLY THEN YOU WILL STOP BEING SLAVES!
    FROM TOMORROW, ODESSA AREA IS ANNOUNCED BY THE ODESSA PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC, WHERE ALL AUTHORITY BELONGS TO THE PEOPLE RESIDING ON ITS TERRITORY ONLY !!!
    1. GRune
      GRune April 16 2014 08: 55
      0
      A link to the source in the studio pliz ...
      1. 17085
        17085 April 16 2014 10: 23
        0
        All this is garbage. Sorry for my French ... Odessans collect SSovtsev for a trip to Donetsk. It seems they have already collected someone. But basically everything, as usual. No one takes to the streets for any rallies. No movements at all ...
        I work with Odessa residents, they are constantly trying to keep in touch with the house, repeated their words.
  12. Sergg
    Sergg April 16 2014 07: 34
    +3
    Who can say why the Zaporizhzhya region is so slow in protesting, only the Zaporizhzhya region will rise. All can enter the troops. Is there anyone who knows the situation in Zaporizhia?
    1. aleks 62
      aleks 62 April 16 2014 10: 18
      0
      ... In Zaporozhye, someone wrote earlier .... In short, in Zaporozhye the leaven of the people is different, and the local oligarchs are not asleep (they have a relatively small army - the brothers of ChOPovtsy) ...
      1. 17085
        17085 April 16 2014 10: 24
        0
        There are few real violent ones, and there are no leaders ...
  13. Little Muck
    Little Muck April 16 2014 07: 37
    +5
    I think that during active hostilities, against the people of the Southeast, we will be forced to defend it by sending troops. And it certainly will not be able to contribute to the reunification of the regions.
    But taking one under protection, a chain reaction may occur in other regions. And it may happen that there remains a small territory of Western Ukraine, which will gather all the rabble that escaped from other regions. From Russophobic radicals to traitors. This cauldron of variegated public will eat and digest itself, and will be blown away.
  14. parus2nik
    parus2nik April 16 2014 07: 37
    +2
    What can happen in the event of a breakaway of Eastern Ukraine?
    There will be no split .. The troops will not be introduced this year .. There will be a constant hotbed of tension, what is happening in Ukraine now, only the beginning of something more, and will end in three years, when Ukraine will be completely plundered .. NATO The United States will not be needed, they will tell Russia, take away the ruins .. restore, it will take you 20 years to do this .. And we still have it ..
    1. GreatRussia
      GreatRussia April 16 2014 07: 47
      +4
      Quote: parus2nik
      and will end in three years

      This will end sooner when the first snow and frosts fall. Hunger and cold will sweep the junta out in riots.
      1. Afinogen
        Afinogen April 16 2014 08: 45
        +1
        Quote: GreatRussia
        This will end sooner when the first snow and frosts fall. Hunger and cold will sweep the junta out in riots.

        And so it will be. Here YUVU immediately realized the future and realized that it was necessary to act. But the rest of Ukraine, lulled by sweet singing from the "zombie box", does not yet understand what will happen. Wakes up from the enchanting singing from the TV when there is really nothing to eat.
        I think Ukraine will be divided into three parts.
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. alexng
        alexng April 16 2014 09: 55
        0
        This will happen in a couple of weeks, and maybe earlier. The treasury is empty. No money. Pay only 50%. Services have almost doubled. Prices climbed up. Kina about 25 may not be. Everything, the filmmaker died, but only the funeral has not yet taken place. In short, a very fat polar fox crept up unnoticed and ...
    2. slavik_gross
      slavik_gross April 16 2014 09: 41
      +1
      Let me disagree, everything will be decided this year !!! And don't even doubt it ...
  15. Quantum
    Quantum April 16 2014 07: 38
    +3
    The Kiev acting do not accept federalization, they do not consider it
    meeting in Geneva if it takes place. Only two options remain.
    Entering Russia is unlikely, a referendum will show that many people
    lean towards the independent southeast.
  16. Orik
    Orik April 16 2014 07: 39
    +2
    The most competitive regions of Ukraine are Kiev, Kharkov, Odessa, Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions - that is, the capital, east and south.

    Moreover, Kiev is competitive because money is earned in the SE, and goes to Kiev. However, as we have Moscow.
    1. Horly
      Horly April 16 2014 09: 03
      0
      Cut, my friend, cut! Where without him! :)
  17. Ulairy
    Ulairy April 16 2014 07: 41
    +4
    No, federalization is already from the "dream come true" area. Ukraine solemnly ceases to exist. America will still try to unleash a civil war through Kiev, but nothing will come of it without real NATO support ... "Russian" Ukrainians will return to Russia, and "non-Russians" can continue to clean public toilets across Europe, like psheks in England. Gloomy mid-spring morning ...
  18. kush62
    kush62 April 16 2014 07: 41
    +4
    Maybe I didn’t understand what. But the author talks about the separatism of Donbass and other regions. Brought the people and now separatism? What are the advantages of the article?
  19. Renat
    Renat April 16 2014 07: 42
    +2
    It’s like in that fable where one man fed two generals.
  20. Ruswolf
    Ruswolf April 16 2014 07: 46
    +5
    A split is a split. How can one split what was not a monolith?
    Even when I served urgent at the beginning of the 80's, and more than once I came across the fact that Westerners were at enmity with the Easterners, believing that only they are true Ukrainians!
    The dialogue was "What are you Ukrainian if you do not know the Ukrainian language!" to which the inhabitant of Odessa replied "Oh ... he surrendered to me! I feel so good!"
  21. JoylyRoger
    JoylyRoger April 16 2014 07: 47
    +4
    The article is interesting, but the "separatism of the rich regions" is downright jarring. The separatism of the fucking Nazis is more correct.
  22. Name
    Name April 16 2014 07: 48
    +1
    Do you know, "expanded and deepened" ... this is only aside from East to West ... and T-34 (behind enemy lines) is ... BEGINNING .. repeat ).
  23. Geologist
    Geologist April 16 2014 07: 48
    +5
    I will express my opinion on how to save Ukraine and calm the zapadentsev.
    It may be stupid, but still
    An urgent need to raise a question for discussion on the return of the territory seized from Poland, under the Molotov and Ribbentrop Pact.
    It is necessary to "knock the land" from under the feet of the Western Ukrainians and put them in the position of the defenders.
    1. Per se.
      Per se. April 16 2014 08: 01
      +3
      Quote: Geologist
      An urgent need to raise a question for discussion on the return of the territory seized from Poland, under the Molotov and Ribbentrop Pact.
      No, "pardon me", that way we will reach East Prussia. The territory of Kievan Rus is the historical core of the Russian world, Russia, if the Westerners do not consider themselves Russians, are not Orthodox, even if they go wherever they go with their Galicia, these are their problems, to Poland or somewhere else, we need to return the indigenous Russian lands, and not to worry about these Bandera "half-blood mutants".
      1. Geologist
        Geologist April 16 2014 08: 52
        +3
        And where is Prussia?
        In Ukraine, Westerners are in the minority and the majority must decide how they live and with whom they live.
        On the example of Russia.
        If the Chechens were told if you want freedom, we cut off all communications to you and take away the land that the communists donated to you.
        Do you agree to be free under these conditions?
        What would they answer?
        Now most Russians believe that the world with Chechnya is bought with money and Russia pays tribute. I do not think so.
        The region is subsidized, but we have the lion's share of the regions subsidized.
        Why is Chechnya so blooming now?
        Yes, everything is simple to the point of banality. Kadyrov exponentially "broke the hands" of several of his embezzlers and the money went in the right direction.
  24. siberalt
    siberalt April 16 2014 07: 49
    0
    Ukraine died naturally. The authorities are in agony. The elections will lead nowhere. They simply won't take place. By itself, Ukraine will build statehood. Well, you can't do what you never did. It is possible that tomorrow at the meeting they will begin to think over a new Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. Because the situation is completely dead-end.
    1. zzz
      zzz April 16 2014 08: 21
      +2
      Quote: siberalt
      It is possible that tomorrow at the meeting they will begin to ponder a new Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. Because the situation is completely dead-end.


      If only ours did not make US concessions.
  25. Same lech
    Same lech April 16 2014 07: 52
    0
    War requires a lot of money and restructuring the economy on a war footing ... can this be done by KIEV now? ... the answer is no.

    So there will be some sort of sporadic skirmishes with armed people who call themselves military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

    There is another option for third-party intervention in hostilities, but this is already from the realm of fiction .... as soon as the packs begin to die they will immediately be removed.

    So far, all the events are reminiscent of a staged performance ... a lot of noise, screams, dust ... and behind this veil .... hehe heh nothing is visible.
    1. Per se.
      Per se. April 16 2014 08: 17
      +5
      Unfortunately, the war against Russia is already underway. Here we can only say that it is desirable to delay or avoid its active phase, to have time to re-equip the army, to strengthen the economy, but this, in fact, is, if not the transfer of the economy to a war footing, then the acceleration of strengthening the defense capability. Of course, we can discuss here and make mistakes, Putin cannot be mistaken, the fate of Russia, the entire Russian world is on the map. Nevertheless, history has shown more than once that appeasing the aggressor is naive and flawed. Had there been a war with Hitler in 1939, most likely the Red Army would have piled on the Germans. We wanted to postpone the war, to rearm the army, but the Germans also strengthened their army, attacking when it was beneficial to them, and not to us. So whether to free Kiev from Bandera now, or wait for them to strengthen and legitimize their power, when NATO comes to them? For me personally, this is a question, the answer to which is not obvious, just as it is not obvious that we should be like the situation of 1941, when with all our might we tried to "not succumb to provocations" by the insolent and already decisive Germans.
      1. serge
        serge April 16 2014 13: 36
        +1
        If Russia started the war with Germany in 1939, it would have been necessary to fight not only with Germany, but also with England and the USA (as well as France), who financed the reconstruction of the German army precisely for the conflict with the USSR. Stalin chose the best option at that time, signing a pact with Germany and quarreling it with the Anglo-Saxons. If troops are sent to Ukraine right now, it will be just a gift for the USA, which will organize an economic blockade for us. Russia's policy in Ukraine is correct, and, ridiculously, it is being pursued, with some variations, according to the method of Gene Sharp, invented by the United States and has now hit them with a boomerang.
        1. koshh
          koshh April 16 2014 17: 13
          0
          Of course, everything is correct! GDP has chosen the right wait position. Time works for us. We will see how the right sector is cutting its government, how they rush about like cockroaches in a bank.
  26. borisjdin1957
    borisjdin1957 April 16 2014 08: 03
    +3
    from the Don.
    Everything will be GOOD! And the girls will be drunk and lads harnessed!
    GDP did not say its last word, which the West awaits with horror and trepidation tomorrow !!!
  27. another RUSICH
    another RUSICH April 16 2014 08: 04
    0
    I have doubts about the appropriateness of mentioning Scotland. Rather, it is the south rather than the north of Great Britain that is industrialized. Scotland is another story altogether
  28. ya.seliwerstov2013
    ya.seliwerstov2013 April 16 2014 08: 06
    +2
    Quote: siberalt
    Since the situation is completely deadlock.

    I studied the course of many rebellions,
    Reasons for defeats and victories
    And realized forever that excuses
    They do not even have one murder.
  29. Nikolaevich
    Nikolaevich April 16 2014 08: 07
    +2
    I never thought that the West would succeed in making Ukraine a huge Baltic. But if you can not pay attention to the Baltic states, then we live with Ukraine
  30. PValery53
    PValery53 April 16 2014 08: 10
    +1
    The Kiev regime does not seem to know what it is doing (it runs into the Russian criminal court). Such rampant arbitrariness of the Banderaites must be buried on the spot, and the strength for this is only in the South-East of Ukraine (or in our country). The war with Bandera lies ahead for several years, just like after the Great Patriotic War. Healthy patriots of Ukraine, inclined to be friends with Russia, should get carte blanche in their homeland. And then Ridna Ukraina will return to the shadow of great Russia, but not America. "World public opinion" represented by Europe and the United States is not worth a price (on a market day).
  31. rasputin17
    rasputin17 April 16 2014 08: 13
    +1
    Thanks to the author for the article. Everything is correctly stated in it, including possible options. There will be no third option in any situation; don’t go to the grandmother, the divorce and the bedside table between the beds are unambiguous !! The industrial region will not feed the brainless and unwilling to work! For the most part, the people of the east and south set clear goals for their future life, and this is a referendum and the possibility of becoming part of Russia because they remember history precisely and know their roots with their future prospects !! They make the choice for themselves and they, I think, will make it right and worthy because they want to live as a part of the unconquered superpower as free people and not as a raw materials appendage under the yoke of neo-fascist usurpers and pro-Western puppets!
  32. hhhhhhh
    hhhhhhh April 16 2014 08: 15
    +1
    in the EU, coal has long been considered non-sustainable fuel.

    Due to the closure of nuclear power plants in Germany, coal mines are reopening.
  33. saag
    saag April 16 2014 08: 17
    +2
    Quote: borisjdin1957
    GDP did not say its last word, which the West awaits with horror and trepidation tomorrow !!!

    Well, he will say that the introduction of troops is not in his intentions and that all will immediately faint? Lavrov has already voiced this position, what you expect is not clear
  34. Platov
    Platov April 16 2014 08: 32
    0
    Ukraine will be split into two parts. The independent east will recover quickly; there is such an experience in world practice. German experience. Russia, oh, how not enough production capacities and manpower - qualified. Zapadentsy with debts Outskirts will vegetate for a long time and persistently for a long time.
  35. Nightcrawler
    Nightcrawler April 16 2014 08: 36
    0
    I watch that video already and is present at every exclamation "Seryoga!" I have a suspicion here that all the videos have the same Seryoga)))
  36. mackonya
    mackonya April 16 2014 08: 39
    0
    I don’t understand why they send military equipment to the South-East, to take the captured buildings, because it will not help them, or they want to seize only the main road junctions and establish posts. And as far as I can see from the reaction, the military themselves do not want to fight against the people of Ukraine, and the inhabitants of the South-East do not give them this. And so now they simply move back and forth in vehicles as ordered, but only the SS will go into the assault, and these Banderaites can already be easily defeated, because they can only be "unarmed".
  37. I am Russian
    I am Russian April 16 2014 09: 41
    +1
    Address by the President of Southeast Ukraine 15.04.2014

    The former chairman of the Lugansk Court of Appeal proclaimed himself "the newly elected president of Southeast Ukraine" and appealed to the free citizens of the federal republic of Donbass.
    “I, the newly elected president of Southeast Ukraine, am called to protect the inhabitants of Southeast Ukraine ... Slavic and Ukrainian peoples, as well as minority peoples, will be protected.


    The economy of Southeast Ukraine goes to the Russian ruble. All settlements and mutual settlements will be carried out using the Russian currency. This is due to the collapse of the Ukrainian national currency - the hryvnia. Payments, salaries, pensions, benefits will be made in equivalent in Russian currency. This is due to the restoration of the economy of the South-East of Ukraine.


    ... I order all power structures, including the security agencies of Ukraine and the prosecutor's office located in the territory of Lugansk, Donetsk, Kharkov, Odessa, Nikolaev, Kherson regions: not to interfere with the federalization of the South-Eastern regions of Ukraine, to repulse the provocateurs of neo-fascist organizations of Ukraine. The National Army of the Federation of South-East of Ukraine will be sent at the request of the South-East of Ukraine to these areas ... ", said Vizir.


    1. Sid.74
      Sid.74 April 16 2014 09: 48
      0
      Here are those times! The junta must fight in hysteria! laughing Especially from this
      Quote: I'm Russian
      All settlements and mutual settlements will be carried out using the Russian currency. This is due to the collapse of the Ukrainian national currency - the hryvnia.

      laughing
  38. thrower
    thrower April 16 2014 09: 47
    +1
    Ukraine has contracted a disease that is widespread in Europe - the separatism of wealthy regions. Donbass followed the path of Flanders, Catalonia, the Italian "League of the North", Scotland and other "small homelands", which, having a relatively developed economy or abundant resources, refuse to feed the rest of the country


    Dear author. Minus for your article, could - put more !!!

    But didn’t it seem to you that the South-Western regions want to separate not because they do not want to feed the parasites?

    What is the main reason in another - RUSSIANS LIVING IN THE SOUTHEAST OF UKRAINE WANT THAT THEY DO NOT KILL THEM BANDANDERS TO NOT TAKE THEIR LANGUAGE, THEIR MEMORY FROM THEM?

    Have you thought about this?
  39. aleks 62
    aleks 62 April 16 2014 10: 24
    0
    Quote: Orik
    The most competitive regions of Ukraine are Kiev, Kharkov, Odessa, Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions - that is, the capital, east and south.

    Moreover, Kiev is competitive because money is earned in the SE, and goes to Kiev. However, as we have Moscow.

    ... In principle, it is correct ... Kiev according to the data yields about 12% of GDP (due to registration of taxation of large enterprises of the Southeast in Kiev), but actually it is about 4% .... Therefore, Kievans are so snickering (well, like correctly seen in Moscow) ....
  40. Aleksandr68
    Aleksandr68 April 16 2014 11: 36
    0
    As far as I remember, the central authorities did not intend to shoot atomic weapons in Flanders, Catalonia, and Scotland. All these EU NATOs do not recognize the autonomous Southeast, would they ask permission to accept him (Southeast) in the Customs Union? And with Kazakhstan, the author is in vain.
  41. 51064
    51064 April 16 2014 12: 14
    +1
    Today’s episode in Krasnoarmeysk
  42. Giant thought
    Giant thought April 16 2014 13: 33
    0
    The spiritual split in Ukraine took place long ago. Now it remains to complete the territorial. And that's all, fenita la comedy called "Ukraine".
  43. slonnonen
    slonnonen April 16 2014 13: 52
    0
    Quote: Sid.74
    Meanwhile, in Kiev, a raid of legal extremists is besieged by illegal extremists who demand to act more extremist and accuse official extremists of having been bought by Putin. In response, the same accusations follow - that Putin sent under the Rada pseudo-Maidanites who are trying to destabilize the situation at the crucial moment. While the extremists of Kiev are arguing which of them is the more bought by Putin, a criminal case is being instituted against a candidate beaten by peaceful protestors for the hetmans of non-existent Ukraine - apparently, because he remained alive. Another candidate was not allowed into the television studio under the threat of beating, the so-called Avtomaydanovtsy - of course, bought by Putin along with tires. On TV, the people are simultaneously convinced of two things: that Ukraine is one and all around the brothers and that part of this people are terrorists and separatists. The funny thing is that many viewers believe both.

    Exactly. Rzhunimagu pad steel !!! The only way.
  44. Nonik
    Nonik April 16 2014 15: 52
    0
    Quote: I'm Russian
    The economy of Southeast Ukraine goes to the Russian ruble. All settlements and mutual settlements will be carried out using the Russian currency. This is due to the collapse of the Ukrainian national currency - the hryvnia. Payments, salaries, pensions, benefits will be made in equivalent in Russian currency. This is due to the restoration of the economy of the South-East of Ukraine.

    Interestingly, the Russian Finance Ministry was asked? winked And in general, far from all areas of the southeast have proclaimed themselves independent.