Military Review

Russian gas will go to China

34
In the Chinese newspaper South China Morning Post An article was published on the prospects for gas cooperation between Russia and China. Last week, A. Miller in Beijing met with Zhou Jiping, Chairman of China National Petroleum Corporation. The newspaper notes that Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to finally sign a long-term contract for the supply of pipeline gas to China. Ukrainian crisis will push him to this decision.


As the newspaper reminds, Alexey Miller, Chairman of Gazprom, met with Zhou Jiping, Chairman of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) in Beijing to discuss the terms of the future gas deal.

According to the observer, Vladimir Putin is likely to sign an 30-year contract for the supply of pipeline gas to China. This deal has been talked about for ten years. But today, the Ukrainian crisis is forcing Russia to look for markets outside of Europe, the Chinese edition notes. Russia needs new buyers.

Also in the article it is reported that in May, V.V. Putin and PRC Chairman Xi Jinping will take the final decision in Beijing. On Wednesday, the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia (meaning Arkady Dvorkovich) said that he “hopes that the agreement will be signed next month.”

According to the publication, against the background of the Ukrainian crisis, the importance of relations between Russia and China increased (Beijing is the largest trading partner of Moscow outside the European Union and the only country in the UN Security Council that did not condemn Russia's actions in the Crimea).

As for the European market, Russia is vulnerable to Western sanctions there. In addition, there is a risk of competition with US shale gas.

Moscow oil and gas analyst Ildar Davletshin from Renaissance Capital noted that Russia could indeed make a deal with China, although showing flexibility in approaching pricing. China needs gas, the expert said, since the use of coal in the most developed parts of the country is becoming problematic.

CNPC expects to sign a contract with Gazprom in the near future. The Chinese company said that negotiations on the price of supply from Siberia to China had "active progress". Miller and Zhou will meet again, now in Moscow, at the end of April. And then, on May 20, Putin will go to China.

The Chinese edition also reminds that Ukraine today owes Russia for the supplied gas 2,2 billion dollars. Vladimir Putin sent a letter to the EU leaders, expressing "extreme concern" about Ukraine’s existing debt for Russian gas and warning them that this could affect supplies to Europe.

Dmitry Medvedev spoke about the benefits of the strategic partnership between Russia and China. His words leads "Moscow Komsomol".

Dmitry Medvedev called cooperation with the Asia-Pacific region one of Russia's key priorities. “Strengthening the eastern vector is not the answer to any measures and sanctions,” he said. - It’s just a necessity of time, it’s beneficial for our country. A well-thought out course for building a strategic partnership should bring us very impressive dividends and benefits. This region is now actively growing, and growth will continue in the near future. ”

Some details about profitable (or not very profitable) cooperation lead "Vedomosti".

First, it is reported that the gas contract should enter into force before the end of 2014.

Secondly, according to A. Dvorkovich, the parties are close to an agreement (price consultations are held practically on a daily basis). The contract is planned to be signed in May during the visit to China of Vladimir Putin. The same information was given by the presidential press secretary, Dmitry Peskov.

Thirdly, the price benchmark from Gazprom is as follows: 360-400 dollars per 1000 cube. m on the border with China. Below this price the project does not pay off. This source, "Vedomosti", close to "Gazprom", said in January 2014.

Fourth, the gas to China will go through the Power of Siberia gas pipeline - from the Chayanda field in Yakutia to Vladivostok.

Fifth, the project is estimated at 1,2 trillion. rub.

Finally, sixthly, Gazprom will most likely have to make new concessions to China. This was reported to Vedomosti by one of the interlocutors at Gazprom. Russia may reset the severance tax on the development of fields, of which gas will go to China, and cancel export duties for China, says Mikhail Korchemkin, director of East European Gas Analysis. The reason for the concessions is the Ukrainian events and the appeals of Europe and the USA to abandon Russian gas.

It is interesting, we add to this, and the question of the currency of the contract, but there is no exact information about this in the press - only guesses. You can judge this after the parties sign the document. However, it is likely that China and Russia will not pay in US dollars. However, this could be hindered by inflation, both Chinese and Russian.

Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
34 comments
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  1. mamont5
    mamont5 April 16 2014 07: 56
    +8
    "Last week, A. Miller in Beijing met with the chairman of the China National Oil and Gas Corporation Zhou Jiping. The newspaper notes that Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to finally sign a long-term contract for the supply of pipeline gas to China. The Ukrainian crisis will push him to this decision."

    And what? Europe should be scared so that it does not look too far across the ocean. Show that if all their sanctions are hit, then by themselves.

    "Crimea and Moscow's actions in Ukraine were a deafening slap in the face to the West, which until recently believed that it could do whatever it wanted in the post-Soviet space. And the Russian-Iranian oil-for-goods contract became a" control shot in the head "of those , who for some reason decided that Russia is no longer a sovereign power and for every step in relations with Tehran must seek Washington's permission. "
    http://politobzor.net/show-17938-tresnuvshaya-dubinka-amerikanskih-sankciy.html
    1. Canep
      Canep April 16 2014 08: 13
      +5
      And there are negotiations with India on gas and oil supplies, I think the scope of the contract will be no less.
      As for the European market, Russia is vulnerable to Western sanctions there. In addition, there is a risk of competition with US shale gas.
      American gas is competitive only in the USA. if you add shipping costs to Arab gas, then shale gas the United States wins, but if you add shipping costs to Europe to shale gas, it will cost more than Russian and even Arabic.
      1. Aleksandr68
        Aleksandr68 April 16 2014 11: 17
        +3
        In addition, the states, extracting shale gas, inflict huge damage on their ecology. If only Russia gets a little shit. "To spite my mother, I'll frostbite!"
    2. max702
      max702 April 17 2014 00: 30
      0
      All the talk about the benefits of deliveries to China and other countries of the region "the captain's conclusions are obvious" yes it is necessary, the only question is the price. Now the price in Asia is 1000m3 700 in Europe 400 this is where the most interesting thing begins, China, in exchange for the tacit support of Moscow, wants to squeeze out to the maximum, and if the contract is for 30 years, then every cent or let's say a penny is not even worth its weight in gold, but in its weight. ".
  2. Same lech
    Same lech April 16 2014 07: 57
    +6
    An alternative to EUROPE is always needed ... so as not to become the object of political and economic blackmail.

    Moreover, I think that in addition to CHINA there are markets that need gas no less than EUROPE and our government should let its emissaries with advantageous offers to all corners of our planet more security.
    1. Alekseev
      Alekseev April 16 2014 11: 40
      +1
      Quote: The same LYOKHA
      An alternative to EUROPE is always needed ...

      Everyone needs an alternative ... But not under pressure from Washington.
      It is time.
      And Europe, in particular, in anticipation of an alternative, should not forget that the less Russian gas is purchased, the less goods from the EU will be purchased. yes
      This two.
      1. Evil Pole
        Evil Pole April 16 2014 17: 44
        0
        Quote: Alekseev
        Quote: The same Lech
        An alternative to EUROPE is always needed ...

        Everyone needs an alternative ... But not under pressure from Washington.
        It is time.
        And Europe, in particular, in anticipation of an alternative, should not forget that the less Russian gas is purchased, the less goods from the EU will be purchased. yes
        This two.
        Absolutely in the hole! A vector is a straight line without points and in one direction to infinity. Western partners forgot elementary GEO (mind you) metrics yes
        1. Vasek
          Vasek April 16 2014 18: 29
          0
          Quote: Evil Chorus
          A vector is a straight line without points and in one direction to infinity.

          There is no straight line without points - they define it, at least two.
          Otherwise, I absolutely agree.
          I would like to add that the most important thing noted at the end of the article is the currency of mutual settlements for gas between Russia and China. A good hit to the dollar in Bayes! bully
  3. Civil
    Civil April 16 2014 07: 58
    +13
    The problem with China is that if they buy it, it’s only for the price that they will set. So it was with Iran, China forced its ally to conclude a disadvantageous agreement, because of which the Persians began to trade oil with us in exchange for goods. China is China and no ally to us.
    1. Same lech
      Same lech April 16 2014 08: 08
      +6
      The Chinese always follow the behavior of a wise monkey that sits on a tree under which there is a fight between a bear and a wild boar ... The Chinese will try to take full advantage of the fruits of this fight.
      1. dark_65
        dark_65 April 16 2014 08: 29
        +8
        The main thing is to have a monkey climbing a tree, in which case.
        1. Svetlana
          Svetlana April 16 2014 10: 38
          0
          So she is not a fool, she will not get off until the bear fills the boar. And "if something happens" will easily jump again.
      2. Kyrgyz
        Kyrgyz April 16 2014 09: 18
        +4
        Quote: The same LYOKHA
        The Chinese always follow the behavior of a wise monkey that sits on a tree under which there is a fight between a bear and a wild boar ... The Chinese will try to take full advantage of the fruits of this fight.

        China is an ancient country, of course, money has been made recently, but I would not overestimate their wisdom, they need to feed a lot of people, and the vulnerability of their finances is enormous.
        Do not rush at a low price, it is also rude to be rude, you need to respect the neighbor, but if you want to twist your hands, let them continue to sit on their tree until they want to eat.
    2. Sakmagon
      Sakmagon April 16 2014 09: 25
      +7
      The problem with China is that if they buy it, it’s only for the price that they will set. So it was with Iran ...

      RUSSIA IS NOT IRAN.
      Iran simply had no choice. And here ... only in the direction of the North Pole it makes no sense to lay a pipe.
      With regards to China - the borzoi needs to be justified. Our gas is our price. If they want cheaper, they’ll go through the market ... Maybe Vietnam or the Philippines will offer something ... laughing
      1. Aleksandr68
        Aleksandr68 April 16 2014 11: 24
        +6
        I think that China understands that sanctions come and go, but Europe still needs gas. Good told VVP: “You gave up your nuclear energy, you want to give up our gas. What will you use for heating? With firewood? So contact us for timber. ! "
    3. sss5.papu
      sss5.papu April 16 2014 11: 02
      +1
      You're right! And the price that China wants to set within 200-250 usd is not more
  4. pensioner
    pensioner April 16 2014 08: 17
    +7
    Thank you Oleg for the article. Gazprom is already getting ready to supply gas to China. Last year, I worked a little on one of the gas pipelines under construction for deliveries to China. If Gazprom finally agrees with China, then Europe can be put with the device. Without gas, of course, they will not remain, but they will rake the smut.
    1. Kyrgyz
      Kyrgyz April 16 2014 09: 24
      +4
      Quote: retired
      Last year, I worked a little on one of the gas pipelines under construction for deliveries to China.

      There is no gas pipeline to China, there is ESPO, it is for the Pacific Ocean and an LNG plant, it will not be done to China without a contract, China will sit on LNG from different suppliers and transport it by tankers, which is expensive and strategically vulnerable, but gives the illusion of diversification until access to the sea is severed. China once slept "sitting like a monkey in a tree" its prospects, for 500 years it could not wake up.
      1. pensioner
        pensioner April 16 2014 11: 09
        +2
        Quote: Kyrgyz
        There is no gas pipeline to China

        Well ... It’s not called ...- China. It is called differently. But they are pulling him with the prospect of gas supplies to China too. Well, at least that's what they told me. Reached the Kemerovo region. 2 threads 1020mm.
        1. oldy
          oldy April 16 2014 11: 57
          +3
          I am also a pensioner, but until recently I worked in Yamal: the "pipe" to China is probably being pulled from the Vangorsky district? and I had to take part in the laying of 1 line of the Bovanenkovo ​​- Baydaratskaya Guba - Vorkuta - Ukhta as part of the Nord Stream, but Putin suspended the second line to increase the capacity .... Will GayEurope heat the ass with LNG?
  5. qwertynsan
    qwertynsan April 16 2014 08: 20
    +3
    Quote: The same LYOKHA
    The Chinese always follow the behavior of a wise monkey that sits on a tree under which there is a fight between a bear and a wild boar ... The Chinese will try to take full advantage of the fruits of this fight.

    Respect)))) ADD NOTHING))
  6. Aeneas
    Aeneas April 16 2014 08: 39
    +8
    "equal profitability" with Europe, and even with Ukraine, will not work. The Chinese have a choice: gas from Central Asia, liquefied gas from Australia, Qatar, their fields ... and again shale gas. On the deposits of which China is not inferior to America, and actively purchases technology from the same amers. But the Chinese are of course interested - they get a cheap energy carrier and raw materials for industry, as well as a market for their goods as a condition for buying gas. True, of course, if Russia abolishes gas duties for China for Gazprom, it will look somewhat ambiguous. For it turns out that the citizens of Russia are sponsoring their "national heritage". For example, for Ukraine, Russia canceled gas duties when the Kharkiv agreements were signed. Then Ukraine extended the lease of bases in Sevastopol until 2042. And China, will return Port Arthur for the abolition of duties?
    1. Kazakh
      Kazakh April 16 2014 09: 38
      +2
      Quote: Aeneas
      True, of course, if Russia abolishes gas duties for China for Gazprom, this will look somewhat ambiguous.
      And the Chinese will not skip the ambiguous, but we can sell for as much as we want only to friendly countries. Not sure if jumping is a sign of friendship.
    2. Semurg
      Semurg April 16 2014 13: 01
      +3
      Quote: Aeneas
      "equal profitability" with Europe, and even with Ukraine, will not work. The Chinese have a choice: gas from Central Asia, liquefied gas from Australia, Qatar, their fields ... and again shale gas. On the deposits of which China is not inferior to America, and actively purchases technology from the same amers. But the Chinese are of course interested - they get a cheap energy carrier and raw materials for industry, as well as a market for their goods as a condition for buying gas. True, of course, if Russia abolishes gas duties for China for Gazprom, it will look somewhat ambiguous. For it turns out that the citizens of Russia are sponsoring their "national heritage". For example, for Ukraine, Russia canceled gas duties when the Kharkiv agreements were signed. Then Ukraine extended the lease of bases in Sevastopol until 2042. And China, will return Port Arthur for the abolition of duties?

      The price of gas from Middle Asia is somewhere in the region of $ 180-200 on the Chinese border and there is already a connection to the trans-Chinese gas pipeline, and you still need to build a pipe from the Russian Federation to invest your own or borrowed money and the price will not be European, so this a purely political decision (Turkmenistan did the same when the Russian Federation abandoned the Turkmen gas and the gas pipeline exploded, the Turkmen made concessions at a price to the Chinese and now they are pulling the third gas pipeline), but here the subtlety of Turkmen can be inferior in price to production not in the far north and spending less and the leg of the haul is less, and the budget is not as tense as in the Russian Federation.
    3. Alekseev
      Alekseev April 16 2014 13: 20
      +3
      Quote: Aeneas
      "equal profitability" with Europe, and even with Ukraine, will not work.

      Perhaps the yield will be lower.
      But do not rejoice very violently. yes The cost of natural pipe gas (in the region of $ 50-100 at present) will still be lower than LNG, oil shale, etc. The only competitor in price is Middle Asia. But there, in a number of countries, their Maidans with a Taliban accent are not far away ... A contract with Russia is planned for 30 years.
      China, of course, will not put all the eggs in one basket, it will go to everyone. The most reliable and reputable supplier of all.
  7. Name
    Name April 16 2014 08: 48
    +2
    One crap, all the agreements Russia + China with Yakutia on coal is ..... well ..... recourse
  8. Altona
    Altona April 16 2014 09: 24
    +1
    If such a decision is made, to supply gas to China through a pipeline from Russia, then it will be purely political, since China has already pulled the fourth line of the gas pipeline from Turkmenistan, so we’ve been negotiating the price for 10 years ... One of the options is to build a plant or plants for the liquefaction of natural gas, the construction of a fleet of gas tankers for the supply of liquefied natural gas to Southeast Asia (Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, etc.) ...
  9. chastener
    chastener April 16 2014 10: 13
    +1
    If you agree, it will be just great!
  10. parusnik
    parusnik April 16 2014 10: 44
    +1
    As they say, with God, let it go!
  11. ururu
    ururu April 16 2014 10: 52
    +1
    Quote: Civil
    The problem with China is that if they buy it, it’s only for the price that they will set.

    China is stability in everything, and secondly, it makes sense to trade with Europe for big money dashes, which this article also emphasizes, is Russia going to collapse? EU for one with the USA. No slippage and rear. Too serious a card at stake. In any case, this contract leaves Russia afloat. plus Iranian oil, it remains to conclude a couple more powerful contracts with BRICS, and everything will gradually begin to be put in place.
  12. Anton K
    Anton K April 16 2014 12: 16
    +4
    I would not overestimate the future hydrocarbon treaty with China. You need to understand that today it is a necessary step (for ten years they could not agree, and suddenly), which means that China will dictate the conditions (prices, first of all).
    It should not be mistaken that this country is supposedly friendly to us - some colleagues have already talked about the position of a monkey on a tree; I am sure they are not mistaken. Going to a reckless rapprochement with China, we risk, in my opinion, a gradual loss of territories. Damansky Island will not happen again, but the continuation of the peaceful transfer is complete.
    And in general, I am very sorry that Russia has reached the stage of an oil and gas appendage of anyone.
    1. Uncle
      Uncle April 16 2014 16: 21
      0
      Quote: Anton K
      Damansky Island will not happen again, but the continuation of the peaceful transfer is complete.

      A month ago, no one expected the Crimean events. Everything can become.
    2. Rasputin
      Rasputin April 16 2014 20: 57
      0
      The only sober judgment, against the backdrop of nationalist fervor and cacophony!
  13. Conrat83
    Conrat83 April 16 2014 14: 35
    0
    China will swallow everything. For such a huge economy, there isn’t much gas.
  14. Uncle
    Uncle April 16 2014 16: 19
    +1
    However, it is likely that China and Russia will not pay in US dollars. Here is the most important information.
    1. W_M
      W_M April 16 2014 20: 12
      0
      With what? In gold? Platinum? Everything else does not offer. What will Russia buy for the yuan?
  15. mig31
    mig31 April 16 2014 17: 24
    +1
    There would be no happiness, but misfortune would help !!!
  16. uzer 13
    uzer 13 April 16 2014 17: 53
    0
    China is currently in a good position, so we should expect active action on their part to conclude a contract. Our European partners are doing the same as China, trying to put pressure on Gazprom and bring down gas prices. As soon as there was at least the slightest opportunity profit from this business, they immediately connected all the resources — administrative, diplomatic, the UN, NATO, media opportunities, all ties with the United States. Ultimately, all this fuss hides very prosaic things, that is, money.
  17. anfil
    anfil April 16 2014 17: 59
    0
    Good news:
    Moscow, April 16 - AIF-Moscow. The State Commission for Reserves Rosnedr put on the state balance oil and gas reserves of a new unique hydrocarbon field discovered in the Astrakhan region, the RF Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology reports.
    "The volume of reserves of the Velikoye field allows us to talk about the birth of a new oil and gas province in the Astrakhan region," said Russian Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology Sergey Donskoy.
    The reserves of the new field are truly unprecedented: about 300 million tons of oil and 90 billion cubic meters of gas. Thanks to this discovery alone, the Astrakhan region may soon become one of the most promising oil and gas provinces in the country.
    And as they said, we do not conduct mineral exploration.
  18. Rasputin
    Rasputin April 16 2014 18: 33
    +2
    Time will pass and Medvedev and Putin will be tried for a long-term contract with China for the supply of oil (for 20 years for 100 billion of greens, at $ 70 per ton). So it will be on gas. The Chinese are pressing Gazprom and will receive dumping as well as oil. This is business in Russian!
  19. sxn278619
    sxn278619 April 16 2014 21: 14
    0
    Understood nothing.
    Gas belongs to the people (state). He sells it (gas) to Gazprom for mineral extraction tax (and it says here that it’s free). Another income is the export duty (also zero). The cost of production is 50 dollars. The cost of transportation is another 50 dollars. And he sells for 300 dollars. Income tax 20%. And where the rest goes. The author talks about the profitability of the project. Nonsense. Again, retirees and state employees are bred.
  20. w2000
    w2000 April 17 2014 01: 54
    0
    Russia can indeed conclude a deal with China, however, having shown flexibility in its approach to pricing.


    Being flexible means bending. We are already pumping oil to China under a long-term contract for 40 years at $ 45, with world prices above $ 100. Almost a minus turns out. Now we’ll sign a bonded gas contract for 30 years, with a price of 350 dollars, while in Europe they are buying 500 at the moment.
  21. Anton K
    Anton K April 17 2014 09: 36
    0
    Quote: sxn278619
    Understood nothing.
    Gas belongs to the people (state).


    It seems to me that you are confusing yourself in terms. The people and the state are not the same thing. The state shares with Gazprom the entire rent (or whatever it is called) from the sale of gas, and unfastens the people as much as they want. Therefore, they get millions, and we .... you know.