On the danger of false demography
Recently, the authorities, speaking of their successes, do not forget to talk about the positive developments in the demography of the country. However, at the same time, they forget to say that this is not a steady increase in population, but fluctuations of a demographic character, which demographers are well aware of. They are of short duration and cannot be called sustainable population growth.
So, at the end of last year, the authorities reported that the number of people in Russia for the year grew by almost 294,5 thousand people and amounted to 143,6 million people. However, the authorities did not press on the fact that the growth of the Russian population by 92% was obliged to visitors. Mass immigration filled the demographic hole 2013 of the year and a number of previous years. Therefore, there is a small population increase in Russia, but it can hardly be called positive for the future of the country.
In addition, it is impossible not to notice a number of other indicators that show that “something rotted in the Danish kingdom.” In mid-February, Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets, 2014, at a meeting of the State Council Presidium stated that women of reproductive age in Russia had decreased. According to her, in 2006, 40 million women in the reproductive age lived in the Russian Federation; in 2013, there were already 36 million women in them. And the tendency to reduce the number of women of reproductive age continues. “The number of women in reproductive age will constantly decrease,” said Golodets. The vice premier also said that in Russia more and more often young women decide to abandon childbearing in order to get a higher education and make a career. Young people in Russia are increasingly postponing the birth of their first child. In addition, the age of women from 18 to 23 years now accounts for 250 thousand abortions in Russia. Many do abortions, being married. And abortions not only deprive Russia of hundreds of thousands of new citizens, but also undermine the reproductive functions of women.
The age structure of the population is deteriorating, it is aging. In 2007 — 2013 The age of potential parents included the generation of 1980-ies, when in the Soviet Union there was a positive trend (the reproduction rate of the population of the RSFSR was 2,2 child per woman). It is this generation that has given an increase in the growth of the birth rate in recent years. He played his role and a certain turn of the state to this problem. In particular, maternity capital has appeared. He provoked part of the parents to the earlier birth of the second child (as long as the state gives something). In general, the average Russian family did not want more children. The reproductive need that she had had - to have two children was realized. Maternal capital contributed to the earlier birth of the second child. However, this is not enough to create sustainable population growth. In order for the population of Russia to grow steadily, it is necessary to achieve the predominance of families with 3-4 children.
The increase in the birth rate was also affected by the external influx of the population, mainly from the former republics of the Soviet Union. For two decades, the citizenship of the Russian Federation has received 6 million. Thanks to the repatriation program, voluntary resettlement of compatriots - another 147 thousand people (for the fall of 2013 of the year). In addition, there is a factor of foreign citizens who give birth to children in Russia. On 2012 year, the number in 36 thousand was named. But these are only official data, which do not always coincide with real figures. A significant influx of immigrants, especially from the republics of Central Asia and Transcaucasia, is fraught with social tensions. A revolutionary scenario in Russia is quite likely: “swinging” of the country along the line of “indigenous to outsiders”. The authorities, facilitating the opportunity for residents of the former Soviet "non-Slavic" republics to become citizens of the Russian Federation, create the basis for a serious conflict.
We must not forget that now the generation of 1990-s is entering the reproductive age. First, they are fewer than the 1980's generation. Secondly, they are qualitatively (on average) worse than the previous generation. In their mental and physical health, they are inferior to the last Soviet generation.
No wonder domestic and foreign experts still give a negative demographic projection for the future of Russia. The country not only does not come out of the demographic crisis, as some political and public figures were quick to say, but also approaches a “human resource crisis”. We are waiting for a sharp reduction in the working-age population, which may lead to a decrease in the role of Russia on the world stage and even a change in its political borders. Russia portends a decline in the population to 130,8 million by 2031 year. This is taking into account the influx of migrants - at least 200 thousand people a year. Without migrants, the population of the Russian Federation in 2031 will be even smaller - about 127 million.
The reason for serious concern is the very heterogeneous demographic dynamics in different regions of the Russian Federation, as well as the presence of hidden and obvious territorial claims to Russia almost along the entire line of our borders. Russian major cities continue to grow, attracting people. Both internal migrants and external migrants settle in them. The Russian “village” and a number of regions, such as the Far East, continue to become empty. Therefore, the CIA and other analytical centers have the ability to predict the Russian Federation demographic shocks, decay into several parts by the 2025-2030. There are grounds for such forecasts.
Over the past 20, the population in the Russian Far East has declined by more than 1,5 million. If at the beginning of 1990-ies the population of the Far Eastern regions exceeded 8 million people, by the beginning of 2014, this figure was a little more than 6,2 million people. The authorities have repeatedly discussed this problem, but have not been able to achieve fundamental changes. In 2012, a special department was even established - the Ministry for the Development of the Far East. However, there are no positive results and are not expected. Official rearrangements and beautiful promises will not solve the problem. The idea was right. Russia really needs a ministry that will deal with the development of the Far East. However, the regional development strategy has not yet been formed, and the agency has not received the appropriate powers and resources.
For two decades now, the Far East has been in a state of sluggish social and economic catastrophe. Due to the complete futility of the region, the population runs to other regions of Russia. In the medium term, we can already see the acute crisis of the Far East, and in the long term, just lose the region. In the current situation, China will sooner or later declare its rights to the Russian Far East. His competitors will be Japan and the United States.
High electricity and rail tariffs suppress economic activity. It is unprofitable to produce goods in the region, since it is expensive to drive them to the market. For the domestic market, goods are cheaper, easier and easier to bring from abroad than to develop local production. In general, the capitalist system makes the region economically unpromising. Only individual projects are developed that supply resources to other countries and in which the state invests capital. However, there is no systematic future-oriented economic development. As a result, the region becomes an economic appendage of China, and partly - other countries of the Asia-Pacific region. The resources necessary for the development of Russia are supported by other countries.
Raise the economy of the region can only large-scale government programs. Hopes for external and private domestic investment do not justify themselves. External capital does not make sense to develop the Far East. It is unprofitable economically. To the south, labor is cheaper, it does not need to be searched for, imported, and the costs are much less. Eastern countries need only resources. One of the signs that the Far East is becoming an economic colony of the PRC is the gradual relocation of Russian citizens to China. Already in 2013, the number of Russians permanently residing in Chinese territory was estimated at more than 100 thousand. China is more attractive by its economic conditions than Russia, although this is far from Germany.
This clearly shows the crisis situation in which the Russian Far East is located. It is also necessary to take into account the Russians, who are actively developing in other countries of the Asia-Pacific region. All this in perspective threatens the loss of the Far East.
Statistics is relentless. Even with the demographic positive “echo” of 1980's and a large influx of foreign culture, we are still in a demographic crisis (some experts talk about the ongoing state of demographic catastrophe). There is no reproduction in the country. The birth rate is 1,7 child per woman. And the minimum limit for the reproduction of the population with an extremely small increase is 2,1-2,2. And if by the year 2035, half of the families will not have 3-4 children (now there are about 7%), then by the middle of the century the indigenous population will decrease so much that it will not be Russia. We will lose a significant part of the territory, and in the second half of the 21st century, Russians will simply be erased from stories. Their remnants will be "ethnic material", which will improve and strengthen the gene pool of China, Islamic civilization and the Western world.
What to do?
Personally, every citizen of Russia must maintain his mental and physical health in good condition and create a healthy large family. Together we are responsible for the future of our Motherland. Our ancestors for thousands of years built, built our homeland, defended from enemies, strengthened the borders and moved their limits. They left us a legacy of a huge Russian civilization, the whole world, the universe. Our task is to improve this world and pass it on to next generations. We all have to “paint our bench” - improve this world within our space. Creating healthy and complete offspring is the most important task of every Russian person.
The demographic situation and large families should become the focus of attention of the entire state and society. Moreover, material incentives - maternity capital, benefits for large families, “maternal wages”, provision of housing and kindergartens, etc., of course, must be present, but not be the basis of the demographic policy. It has long been proven that the higher the welfare of society, the lower the birth rate. In a consumer society, children reduce their parents' consumption, so people generally abandon the family or create “childless” or one-child families. The basis of such a society is consumption and hedonism (pleasures). The Roman Empire went along this disastrous path; at present, the United States, Europe and Japan are following it. Russia has embarked on this path. The result will be tragic.
Russia should follow the path of building such a society where the spirit of creation, creativity and service permeates all spheres. Large healthy families should become a kind of elite of society, an elite social group. It is necessary for society and youth to give a “signal” that having many children is “fashionable”, “beautiful” and simply correct. In a healthy society, it is necessary to clearly and clearly define a specific program: if you want to become part of the elite, create a strong, large family. One of the ways to improve the status of large families can be an additional electoral vote. The imperative of the government and society for the long term should be the idea of "Russian billion".
It should be noted that the fight against abortion should be part of this moral twist, the creation of a qualitatively different society. Only reducing the number of abortions in 2-3 times will allow us to emerge from the abyss and get 5-8 years to solve other problems. In the long run, abortion should be a rare exception.
At the same time it is necessary to develop a number of breakthrough projects. In particular, the re-creation of the Russian village. Creating hundreds of villages and townships for large families, where each family will receive a home-estate. This idea is promoted by the chairman of the Development Movement, Yuri Krupnov.
Another important project is the priority support of those regions of the country that are dying out. These are mostly “Slavic”, indigenous Russian regions. It is in them that depopulation occurs. Moreover, in these areas a separate approach is also needed. So, the state should stimulate not only the birth of her second child, but the third and subsequent ones. And this support should increase with the birth of each child. In particular, if the second child is now given maternity capital over 400 thousand rubles, then this amount should be doubled for the third child (it is the birth of the third child that solves the problem of population reproduction), and the fourth child three times. At the same time, expand the scope of application of this capital and make it also “paternal”. Excuses that no money is unacceptable. It's a lie. For the last Olympics, money was found, as well as they would be found for the World Cup. Population reproduction is more important than these recreational activities. It is about the survival of the nation, state and civilization. Population growth in the future will recoup all costs, both in military-strategic and economic terms.
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