Georgia is trying to block the Russian base in Gyumri

On April 20, the Georgian parliament unanimously decided to cancel the agreement with the Russian Federation on the transit of military cargo and personnel through Georgian territory to the 102 Russian military base.

True, after the 2008 war of the year, it was supplied only by air. There is also an alternative way: through the territory of Iran. Tehran is unlikely to refuse to help, it does not need to strengthen the creatures of Turkey - Azerbaijan and pro-American Georgia in the Caucasus.

Reference: 102-I Russian military base - One of the few Russian bases remaining abroad. It is deployed in Armenia, in the city of Gyumri (126 km north of the capital of the republic), with a population of about 2 Russians and 500 Armenians. The military base was created on the basis of the 2000th Motorized Rifle Division and other units of the Red Banner Transcaucasian Military District. It is part of the United CIS Air Defense System. In 127, her stay was extended to 2010. The Russian Federation does not pay Armenia for the stay of its base on its territory, since Armenia is in a difficult geopolitical situation - the unresolved Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan, which is supported by Ankara. The external threat to Armenia, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, will be considered a threat to Russia. Armament: significant stockpiles of storage, including those remaining after the withdrawal of troops from the territory of Georgia. Roughly 2044 MiG-18 aircraft, anti-aircraft missile regiment: three batteries of the Kub anti-aircraft missile system (SAM), two S-29V batteries; tank battalion with T-72; about 300 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, there are army air defense systems - ZSU-23-4 Shilka, Strela -1, ZU-23-2 and other weapons (D-30 howitzers, self-propelled howitzer 2C1 Gvozdika, MT anti-tank guns -12, ATGM "Bassoon" and "Competition").

The base in Gyumri is unique in that we don’t have to pay Yerevan for the territories provided. The Armenian political elite turned out to be very sensible and understands that, without the military presence of Russia, sooner or later it will be crushed. Therefore, 102 Base plays a restraining role in the South Caucasus, preventing Baku and Ankara from moving to words. It is clear that direct intervention of Turkey (a member of NATO) in the hypothetical second war between Baku and Yerevan is unlikely, help will not be provided by troops - weapons, ammunition.

The decision of Georgia blocks air transit through its territory, as a result, Russia has only the Iranian route, through the Caspian Sea - the port of Enzeli - the Armenian Meghri. It is beneficial for Iran to help Russia, Turkey is increasingly beginning to show the ambitions of a regional power. Turkish intelligence services operate in Iranian Azerbaijan, fueling local separatism. To support the Russian Federation and Armenia in the interests of Iran, as they keep Ankara on "distant approaches", until the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh is resolved, Azerbaijan and Turkey are less active in the problem of Iranian Azerbaijan.

Georgia’s position on this issue is clearly stupid, blocking transit, they spoil relations with Armenia, further worsen relations with the Russian Federation. Although it would be time to start a constructive dialogue, without Russia the Georgian people are doomed, they cannot survive in the Big Game. In addition, Tbilisi is deteriorating relations with Iran, positioning itself as supporters of the United States, NATO, and increasing Tehran’s involvement in the problems of the South Caucasus.

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Comments

[Vladimir]

The scenarios for the development of the situation can be different. From a complete blockade of the territory of Georgia, the same prohibitions on the flights of their aircraft through the territory of Abkhazia, Russia. Armenians may prohibit the transit of their passengers through their territory. Close the land border, stop the passage of all Georgians through the checkpoint, (stop issuing the same visas, start pressing Georgians in Russia, but what else), which are now operating in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Block them gas, electricity, block from the sea. Armenia receives part of the gas from Iran, so the Georgians will not be able to completely shut off the fuel.
Well, the surest option, but the most radical one, is to initiate the separatist movements of Armenians living in Georgian Javakheti. Georgia is no better than Libya. And the Armenian armed forces are quite strong and spiritual, they can easily reach Tbilisi itself. Although I am sure that this is just some kind of blackmail of the Georgians, they want something from Russia there. They do not have the right to cover the pass - there are special agreements on this.

[SULTAN]

reptile

[Growth]

Vladimir, thank you. I laughed with you, as with the tricks of Mikhail Zadornov. On the contrary, Georgians can block hachiks flying over their country. As for the Armenian army, this is generally a laugh to tears. On the contrary, they are hiding behind Russia, like cowards. In addition, Iran is Russia can show the middle finger after refusing to sell them the S-300 (although it is unlikely, because they are all corrupt). In short, the base in Gyumri is a big mistake of Russia. What role does this base play in the security of neither Russia nor its resources, but to fight it’s stupid for Armenia. And why should the Russians die for someone else, is it because Sochi can also become Armenian?

[Vladimir]

Growth,
I would recommend not to laugh, but to follow closely the events, including from Armenia. If you look a little at the map of Transcaucasia, especially the BTC pipe and think a little away from the hustle in the direction of the geopolitical priorities of this region, and in addition, remember the story conflicts from Karabakh to Georgian-neighboring conflicts, you will understand that these scenarios were not written by me and not now. In the distant 1990-1993, a small mine was laid with the obligatory development of the situation in this direction. Think about it at your leisure. And better - look, really, it will be more informative for you.
I’ll tell you one thing, only you don’t be offended. Jump from oil and gas infrastructure. A gas pipe from Iran came and stood in Armenia. Another Russian gas pipe came and stood in South Ossetia. Take the card, look. What is the short way to connect them?
I also remind you of Nabucco, Iran’s desire to enter foreign markets.
Hard? Turn on Zadornov, daragoy.

Yes, I forgot. About the Armenian army.
After the Russian Armenian army in the post-Soviet space is the most combat-ready and high-quality. I was personally convinced of this when I was in the area of ​​their hostilities in 1992-93. If you are an Azerbaijani, then I will tell you this - you had a great opportunity at one time to break these "cowards" as you put it. The losses were 12: 1 in favor of Armenia. Not a single Russian patron from the base then ended up in the Armenian army, they coped themselves. If you are a Georgian, then I recommend not to quarrel with them. They will reach Tiflis in 3 days. This I authoritatively declare to you. And Russia will stick for them only in one case - aggression from the outside. Turkey or someone else. Russia will not get involved in their conflicts with Azerbaijan or Georgia.

[Growth]

Vladimir,
Mdya, are you raving! Have you seen an Azerbaijanian or a Georgian named Rostislav? As for the valiant Rembonyans, what kind of H.I. all the same Azerbaijan. In addition, I repeat once again, why the hell should Russia substitute the backs of Russians for the sake of Armenia ??? What does Armenia give Russia ??? Vladimir, are you an hour’s hachik?

[CCCP1980]

DARK AZERBOT

[Vladimir]

You probably don’t know, but Georgians fly to Russia through Armenia. Armenians make up about 20% of tourists on Batumi beaches, provide up to 30% of Georgian electricity needs from the ANPP, provide Georgian transit to Iran, which is growing every week, etc. As for why Russia needs this, it’s a long time to explain to you, it seems that you are very poorly versed in the concepts of Russia's influence zones, cross-border geopolitical interests, their protection and concepts like a strategic ally with a unified air defense system, the location of the country's military bases in friendly countries, etc. .
Do not be offended that I suggested you as a Georgian or an Azerbaijani. Only one of them can write this way. If you are a Russian, then all the worse for you. You cannot leave your home with such a zero worldview. Such as you proposed not to go to South Ossetia and Abkhazia, to separate Chechnya, to withdraw troops from Armenia, to close the base in Kant in Kyrgyzstan, it is not spent on a VM base in Syria, but to cut the money for the afflicted. No, you argue non-politically, yes. Do not confuse state wool with your own.
By the way, while working as a military adviser, I repeatedly read expert excerpts and naturally, closed intelligence data on Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. So, the Armenians are not hiding for us. We asked for it and are asking them to maintain traditionally friendly relations. Sounds a little strange, right? Does it seem to you that they cling to us like drowning in a straw? Nah. I'll tell you more. Without Armen, the CSTO does not make sense. Our base there covers the entire south of Russia. NATO has repeatedly offered them friendships, and the largest diaspora in America has an effect on the US State Department and US Presidents that is many times more effective than on our diaspora in Russia. If the Armenians agreed, they would live many times better than now. These voices are already heard there and every year more and more loudly. Their current youth no longer learn Russian-English. And he does not leave for Russia, but for the West. Of the 2010 thousand families left Armenia in 25, only 9 came to Russia. The rest are in the USA and Europe.
When we were in Azerbaijan in 1994 after the Bishkek agreements, we were assured that sooner or later Azerbaijan would join NATO. And I have no doubt about that. Do you want Makhachkala to have an aggressive NATO member in the person of Turkey and their assertive intelligence MIT, which focuses on the Islamists? And the direct financing of the MITom bandit groups at the beginning of the first Chechen company?
If you listen to people like you and get out of there, we will eventually lose our North Caucasus. The border of Russia will pass along the border of the Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories. I don’t know where you live, if in Moscow, then in this situation you will stop riding the subway. It simply will not work from constant terrorist attacks.
Our presence in Armenia does not allow Azerbaijan and Turkey to untie their hands. While we are there, you can sleep peacefully and even write quietly outrageous opuses on the forums. Think about it. If you don’t have this ability, don’t worry either. There is someone to think for you.

[CCCP1980]

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[Victor]

Bravo, Vladimir! It's nice to read the comments of a competent person and a professional from the army. I agree with your ratings completely. Sometimes it’s very unpleasant to read the thoughts of people who imagine themselves to be Napoleons without going beyond the borders (edge) of their own city, not to mention the sovereign service.

[Forward]

Vladimir,
The selection of allies and partners in the geopolitical game is a very complicated matter. International conjuncture can change quickly. Enemies today are friends tomorrow. But Georgia definitely needs to be isolated from Russia tightly. There can be no fruitful alliance with Saakashvili on any terms

[LEKHA]

gentlemen, comrades, in any case, Misha will still chew a tie

[Michel]

Volodya, keep the crab 5+.

[Vladimir]

Forward,
The choice of allies depends on the political situation, external threats and many more factors, for example, economic cooperation. But our main allies remain 2 structures, about which Emperor Alexander spoke, but there are also traditional allies, proven for decades and even more. Russia has them - Belarus, Ukraine, whatever relations are temporarily developing, Kazakhstan, Armenia. I will simplify the understanding of the word "ally". An ally is when you are beaten, and he barges in and fights on your side. For example, the Armenians in 1995 proposed to send 2 regiments of Karabakhis to Chechnya. An ally? Of course. In general, the collapse of the Union showed who is who. And now, I hope. our political leadership will build relationships with partners in a slightly different way.
About Georgia. My first post is the post from the point of view of a simple layman who was indignant about the actions of the Georgian side. And let's look from a different angle. Mishiko 08.08.08/XNUMX/XNUMX. helped us solve a number of issues in a week that we would have solved since a dozen years. The first in importance - NATO abandoned Georgia and Ukraine. There was also a disruption in NATO preparations for a war with Iran. Then there is a chain of events directly related to this week-long war - the arrival in Ukraine of another, more sane leadership, in Central Asia sharply neglected to put us sticks in the wheels. Karimov arrived on the third day and conducted secret negotiations. Turkey made it clear that it fully supports us and will refuse direct armed support to Azerbaijan if that, etc. The recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia is a lever of influence on the West. No more.
And now, all of a sudden, for no reason (in the light of events in the north of Africa and the Bl.Vostok), Georgia closes our communication with our base, forcing (to interact with the 102nd base through Iran. Let me remind you. Egypt-Libya -Syria-Yemen-Bahrain. By default - Iran. The purpose of NATO is Iran. And here we are carrying out, under the existing sanctions regime, uncontrolled transportation of military goods through their territory by the same UN, because what a nasty Bear it forbade us from. How much and what will be lost Allah knows on the way to Iran. They won’t be able to fly us. We’ll close them cargo flights through his territory, and Roza Otumbaeva may begin to bull again.
(Information about the presence of S-300 Persians has been exaggerated for 3 years. World public opinion was simply being prepared). So everything is not so simple with Mishenka.

[Forward]

Vladimir,
Perhaps you are right, in terms of the fact that from the existence of Mishiko you can get not only harm. There is no silver lining! From each mistake opponents can benefit from the right approach. The question is what and how political dividends can bring, and whether the positive factors outweigh the negative ones, it's hard to say for nothing. Saakashvili, of course, is not an absolute evil. He has not yet grown to the image of Mephistotle. But he is an ardent enemy of Russia and all Russian, and frankly speaking, near. The fact that he authorized the transfer of heavy drugs through the territory of Georgia to Russia, already speaks of his attitude towards us. Therefore, the assessment and balance of benefits and harms are rather arbitrary. Although what you are talking about is certainly for our good

[Vladimir]

Forward,
Russia's interests are above all. This should be taken into account. According to Mishka, yes, everything looks exactly like that. Enemy, you bastard. Now let's look behind the veil. He closed the Pankisi Gorge for bandos, launched the Russian business, played along with us on the political field and much more. No wonder all political analysts called 08.08.08. turning point, a pro-Russian point in history. The Americans were confident that our army would take Tbilisi on August 16-18. We could take it easily, without a single shot from the Georgians. And then suddenly they stopped abruptly and rolled back. Well, Sarkozy did not persuade the Way ..., oh, Medvedev to retreat.
Politics is a very delicate and multi-way thing. Sometimes these or other current decisions were made many years before them, waiting for their time. And some of the current events will continue in 10, 15, or even 20 years. Everything is difficult if you see only what they show you.
As for the enemy of Russia ... Believe me, he did no worse to us than Yushchenko or the same Aliyev from Turkmenistan. Even more likely the opposite. There is tactics, there is a strategy. Strategically, in the long run, he has given us invaluable gifts. But consciously or not, it’s a question for our special services. On Khoroshevka or in Yasenevo they know better about this. And even that, man 5, if not less.
The secret springs of politics sometimes break through the "sofa" and become obvious.
You just need to examine the subject from different angles in order to see it.

[Forward]

Vladimir,
Russia's interests yes. But let's decide what are the interests of Russia. These are the interests of most of our fellow citizens, and not the interests of a small number of people. Without possessing secret arrays of information, I try to judge by the results of what I see with my own eyes. Geopolitical games are of course needed. But, you see, they are costly and cynical. The rest I agree with you. Time will tell how skillful our intelligence services and politicians were.

[Vladimir]

Forward,
The interests of the majority, to whom we and you belong? must be ensured by Russia's foreign policy interests, rather even in the first place. We lived without them, these interests in the 90s. I’m sure you don’t want to remember those years. Now there is a rollback in the opposite direction, we are returning to where we left or we are "gone", our "brothers", buying into the sweet life under "democracy", "liberalism" and friendship with the West. A hangover came, and a bitter one. The former "brothers", even in fascist Estonia, remember how they lived well under the Union, when the union budget (that is, the Russian one) fed them, protected and formed them. And they sat in warm apartments and gundos said that there was not enough freedom. Now there are more "freedoms" - you can die of hunger or go as a slave to developed countries. So you woke up.
Russia must first of all ensure the tranquility of its borders and at its borders. Between us and potential directions of aggression in all theaters of operations, except for the Far North, there must be at least one country-state, preferably our ally, who can be drawn into these ranks in different ways. including gas-oil pressure. Such a "border zone" to begin preparations for repelling aggression on our territory from their territory in a threatening and special period. Nothing personal - only national security. He considered the Slovak-Czechs brothers - during the Cold War, a strong buffer was needed in front of the then West. And with those countries that we border, it is desirable to maintain "friendly" and pragmatic relations. Like with Kiai, for example. The methods are also very different - from blackmail and threats to economic cooperation, giving them the right to trade on our territory or supply raw materials. Stick, then carrot. Hit on the hunched back, stroked. Georgia is our lever in the Southern theater of operations. Mishka is good, we need it for now, as well as Karabakh and Chechnya.
There are official figures for the growth of our industry and economy. They are more than impressive. The whole world is fucking, and we are dissatisfied with something and something. We criticize everything, scream. We want salaries of several thousand bucks. There will be that too, you just have to wait a bit. In contrast to the same "prosperous" Europe, where it is full (only they are silent about this, because somehow it is not customary to talk about decline there), in Russia everything is still going steadily and, most importantly, upward. Yes, a curve, but up. Look how much money was allocated for rearmament, how much salary the officers will have, and how by 2-14 there will be no servicemen without apartments. For the first time, by the way, since tsarist times. Fiction. Salary years 50 thousand, and an apartment. Isn't this the dynamics of good development?

[datur]

in rodents, spring exacerbation, vitamin deficiency. need to send them faster ties!