Military Review

How Nigeria doubled GDP and became Africa’s leading economy

40
How Nigeria doubled GDP and became Africa’s leading economy"State-gas station" showed that it can not only pump oil, but also carry out economic reforms


Lay the red carpet, bring flowers, play the carcass: meet the new world leader in economic growth! Now it is Nigeria. Last year, it almost doubled GDP: it added as much as 89%. China has lagged behind so that it seems a little black dot somewhere behind her back. Thus, Nigeria became the largest economy in Africa (510 billion dollars), ahead of South Africa and jumping from 33-th place in the world immediately to 26-e. A little more, and a place in the "big twenty" is provided.

All, of course, have already guessed that this transcendental growth can only be given on paper - which, in fact, happened. But we are not talking about deception or vain trickery: Nigeria, as it was advised by the UN for a long time, finally fixed the methodology for calculating GDP. The Nigerian authorities, with the participation of independent auditors and analysts scrupulously recounted it for many months, and it was clear that there would be a leap. Experts were waiting for a breakthrough in 45 and even in 60%, which, given a similar recount, four years ago was issued by Ghana. But the result of Nigerians was a record and exceeded all expectations.

Usually, the method of calculating GDP is adjusted about once every three years in order to take into account changes both in the volume and in the structure of the economy. The IMF recommends changing the base year from which the count is taken every five years. Nigeria has done nothing of the kind since 1990. He was taken as a base: The National Bureau of Statistics assessed the country's economy as if prices, and with them the profits of producers, did not grow at all (!) 23 of the year. The agency took the 2010 year as the new benchmark.

The number of sectors of the economy immediately increased: there used to be 33 before them, now 46. Sectors that were not previously reflected in statistics or simply did not exist, but appeared as a result of reforms, were taken into account. This is primarily air travel, mobile communications and information technology, online shopping, the music industry and the cinema. Yes, do not laugh, and the movie: the prolific Nigerian film industry, the so-called Nollywood, thanks to 6 turnover of billions of dollars, now provides 1,2% of GDP. Previously, its contribution to the economy was considered zero. In the nineties, there was one telephone company in Nigeria with 300 000 subscribers and one airline. Now there are a dozen of those and others, and there are tens of millions of mobile subscribers and passengers.

Many observers, including the Nigerian ones, called the conversion of GDP a dummy, the vanity of the government. But the authorities of the supertasks did not set themselves: they only cleaned the Augean stables of statistics. One of the organizers of the recalculation, Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (in 2012, she was nominated for the presidency of the World Bank), openly warned: the result will be “purely psychological” because the government needs real paper quality and quality growth. Although the World Bank’s Nigeria scale is now a middle-income, not low-income country, 170’s millions of its inhabitants have not become richer from reform. Nevertheless, there is a practical benefit from the recalculation.

It will surely attract even more foreign investors, which are very supportive of Nigeria. The ratio of public debt and GDP in one fell swoop fell from 19 to 11%. An increase in credit ratings is not far off, and the growth of investments in Nigerian debt securities has already been recorded. Yes, and wipe the nose of the Republic of South Africa, the eternal political rival and economic competitor, is always nice. A small detail: when in January Nigerians knocked out South Africans from the African Cup, in South Africa it was perceived as a terrible humiliation and almost a national tragedy.

Yet, South Africa, whose economy remains the benchmark for the Black Continent, is very far from Nigeria. Up to 70% of its budget revenues and 20% of GDP, oil still provides. Here political instability and disgusting roads, and the quality of medicine and education is alarmingly low. Electricity in many areas is a pleasant surprise, but not the norm of life: even by African standards there is a terrible electricity supply. Let the richest African and is now listed in Nigeria (this is a commodity tycoon Aliko Dangote with a fortune of 25 billion dollars), the country is among the leaders in property inequality. Corruption is eating away at Nigeria, although over the past twenty years much has been done to eradicate it. At least, entering the country now, you do not start paying bribes right at the airport.

Although the Nigerian stock market has grown to 80 billion dollars, this is only one fifth of the value of securities listed on the stock exchange in South Africa. Per capita income in South Africa, where the population is three times smaller, is almost three times ahead of Nigerian. The standard of living there is incomparably higher, despite the gains of the victorious Mandelism, and the economy is more balanced. How sarcastically tweeted in response to the Nigerian news one high-ranking South African diplomat, “but here we have a light.”

Yet Nigeria is not discouraged: it is catching up and modernizing. With stable 6% economic growth per year, non-oil sectors grow on average by 8%. In an attempt to dislodge the petrodollar needle, the government is actively developing its own industry (for example, the pharmaceutical industry), instead of mindlessly importing foreign goods. A gradual increase in the middle class is turning a densely populated country into an attractive market, and the business capital Lagos is being built up with modern high-rises. If on the most backward continent of the planet there are contenders for the title of "African China", then Nigeria is clearly the most visible of them.
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http://www.km.ru/economics/2014/04/07/makroekonomika-i-statisticheskie-dannye/736747-kak-nigeriya-udvoila-vvp-i-stala
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  1. GREAT RUSSIA
    GREAT RUSSIA April 9 2014 15: 49
    +1
    Well done, those who manage skillfully will lead their people to prosperity. Although there are many poor people there, such an increase will lead to an increase in wages and pensions, and this will lead to an increase in living standards.
    1. Sterlya
      Sterlya April 9 2014 15: 51
      +4
      It is clear for whom Obamka works. do not forget means home wassat
      1. postman
        postman April 9 2014 16: 06
        +4
        Quote: Sterlya
        do not forget means home

        ?
        He (Obama) was born in Honolulu, Hawaii.

        him far on the side of Nigeria


        Barack Obama's parents are white American Stanley Ann Dunham and black Kenyan Barack Hussein Obama, Sr.

        Kenya

        1. The comment was deleted.
        2. Sterlya
          Sterlya April 9 2014 16: 21
          +3
          Quote: Postman
          black Kenyan Barack Hussein Obama, Sr.

          I confess. did not study the biography of dear comrade BaoBam turns out. only when he was elected did he read and for some reason remembered that his father was from Nigeria. therefore he thought and he was born there. the hour, too, the wiki even opened with surprise. what happens laughing
          Yes, Barak Huseynovich. Sorry friend laughing bully
          1. postman
            postman April 9 2014 16: 39
            +3
            Quote: Sterlya
            Yes, Barak Huseynovich. sorry friend

            belay
            In principle, and so it is visible (on the muzzle).
            Here, mentioned in the article by Aliko Dangote




            But the Kenyans (well, if you don't mix them with Stanley Ann Dunham)




            The difference, as they say, is obvious between them.
            ==========================

            The photo shows Senator Auma Obama's sister and his grandmother Sarah Hussein Obama near her home in the village of Kogelo, Kenya.


            Ancestor of US President Barack Obama allegedly was one of the first black slaves registered in America (WHAT HAVE BEEN REGISTERED? AS UZBEKOV / TAJIKOV in RF) ?. According to genealogists at the American company Ancestry.com, their research suggests that Obama's maternal ancestors date back to a Virginia slave named John Punch. Reported by The New York Times.
            1. Sterlya
              Sterlya April 9 2014 16: 51
              +3
              Quote: Postman
              The difference, as they say, is obvious between them.

              Yeah. exactly on the face laughing
              Obama just faded a little. it's not as hot in the usa as in Africa wassat
            2. smile
              smile April 9 2014 17: 00
              +2
              postman
              :))) No, they were registered, approximately, like our vehicles. Like property.
              1. postman
                postman April 9 2014 18: 18
                0
                Quote: smile
                like our vehicles.

                Nah, definitely not.
                Otherwise, there would be no flow of Avromaricans among the Americans ...
                (Like our traffic cops, it's easier to buy a white slave, or use illegal immigrants, and even a technical inspection, a first-aid kit ... you'll get worn out)
          2. Aljavad
            Aljavad April 9 2014 23: 10
            0
            laughing
            even opened in surprise

            Just think - you were wrong! Only half a nail on the map! laughing laughing laughing
            And they live there and there - all look the same what
        3. max702
          max702 April 9 2014 16: 33
          0
          Yeah, but the lady who confirmed the American citizenship of the abama recently died very suddenly, but of course this is just a coincidence against the background of public interest in this issue ..
    2. avg
      avg April 9 2014 16: 15
      +2
      Quote: GREAT RUSSIA
      such an increase will lead to an increase in wages and pensions, and this will lead to an increase in living standards.

      I don’t know what this growth will lead to in Nigeria, but here they often earn money by transporting drugs in their own stomachs. At all customs offices they sit on pots.
      1. Aljavad
        Aljavad April 9 2014 23: 18
        0
        they often earn here


        And they also sell "magic powder" in Moscow to multiply money. Fold the package, sprinkle it with powder, wrap it in a newspaper - and under the bed, in a dark place. Three months later, you cut it - and there DOUBLE more! And everything is in bucks!
        This is how the Nigerians were engaged in breeding sucker-eared in our capital ...
        But they were caught (I do not know on which sucker) and put.
    3. Army1
      Army1 April 9 2014 16: 58
      +1
      It only says that you shouldn't listen to any experts and other rubbish, but you should fight corruption.
    4. svetlomor
      svetlomor April 9 2014 17: 08
      +1
      Ukraine should have taken an example from them, not from Georgia.
      1. Aljavad
        Aljavad April 9 2014 23: 21
        0
        take an example from them

        What for? There was so much good for sale ... One modern weapon for 1991 - mountains ...
        They didn't have time to run away - that's yeah ...
        Bummer.
  2. Lexx
    Lexx April 9 2014 15: 50
    +1
    In Nigeria, I remember there was already such a boom, also against the background of a jump in oil prices in the 70s and early 80s, but as soon as the oil price fell, the whole economy fell into tartar - homeless people settled in unfinished skyscrapers, and on the streets for a long time drove Mercedes 70s.
  3. Riperbahn
    Riperbahn April 9 2014 15: 53
    0
    How so? Deception everywhere ?!
  4. RUSS
    RUSS April 9 2014 15: 53
    0
    How Nigeria doubled GDP and became Africa’s leading economy

    Mattress makers may not like this, I think that the color revolution will reach Nigeria.
  5. YaRusich
    YaRusich April 9 2014 16: 02
    +3
    did commentators from above even read the article then?)))
    1. Gorinich
      Gorinich April 9 2014 16: 37
      +4
      On hardly :) in order to produce comments it is not necessary.
      1. krechet-1978
        krechet-1978 April 9 2014 17: 12
        +4
        Damn, I just wanted to write a comment, well, first I read the article.
  6. Oml
    Oml April 9 2014 16: 17
    +1
    Quote: Postman
    him far on the side of Nigeria

    If on the side. They need everything. Continuation for the money swing. Subsequently, they will find a reason for aggression. Plus a reason for their further militarization.
  7. nikcris
    nikcris April 9 2014 16: 22
    +1
    The description is very similar to another familiar country to me repeat
    1. smile
      smile April 9 2014 17: 07
      +1
      nikcris
      The United States is currently making a monstrous effort to conquer the gas market and increase its gas exports. Want to get on the gas needle? :)))
      And they got rid of corruption in about the same way as criticized Nigeria doubled its GDP - they legalized it and bashfully called it lobbying. Well, and the scale of corruption speaks for itself by the fact that they, according to their own data, annually spend a third of the military budget on dubious (as they modestly call corruption) deals. And nothing. Silence. Nobody throws mud at themselves that they have continuous corruption all around. :)))
      1. Santa Fe
        Santa Fe April 9 2014 18: 06
        +1
        Quote: smile
        and increased exports of its gas.

        American gas exports - ZERO, everything goes to its industry
        The world's first Khimprom
        Quote: smile
        Want to sit on a gas needle?

        They want to not depend on import of gas and oil from abroad
        1. smile
          smile April 9 2014 21: 13
          +1
          SWEET_SIXTEEN

          Yeah ... you surprised me a little by the fact that you think - as if - ZERO ...
          You are wrong. Or the information on the basis of which you draw conclusions is outdated by five years.
          I strongly advise you to still be interested in the question. I recommend the article, excerpts from which I will now quote, at the end - a link.
          So:

          The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy believes that in the future, the development of US shale oil and oil sands of Canada will make North America the main source of supply growth among non-OPEC countries. Production in the region will increase by 2013 million barrels per day in 1,5 and another 1,3 million barrels in 2014.

          US oil production in November peaked for that month since 1988 and averaged 8 million barrels per day. By the end of 2013, according to the EIA, the average daily production will amount to 7,5 million barrels and 8,5 million in 2014.

          Whereas 5 years ago companies built terminals for the import of hydrocarbons, now more and more players are planning to export raw materials. For example, Freeport LNG Development, which built an LNG import terminal four years ago, in September signed a contract with the South Korean SK Group and the Japanese Toshiba for the export of 2,2 million tons of LNG per year.

          The growth in exports from the United States is mainly related to natural gas, as the country still has restrictions imposed in 1975 on oil supplies abroad. However, against the backdrop of production growth prospects, there are increasing calls from American oil and gas giants to lift the ban, prompting the US government to gradually revise its export policy. Over the past fiscal year ended September 30, 103 licenses were issued in the United States for the supply of oil abroad, mainly to Canada, against 66 licenses in 2012.

          According to EIA forecasts, oil production in the United States by 2016 may approach the maximum since 1970 at 9,6 million barrels per day

          Thus, according to the International Energy Agency, by about 2017 the United States may become the largest oil producer, overtaking Saudi Arabia and Russia, and by about 2030 - a net exporter of oil ....

          The interest of companies from the Asia-Pacific region, in particular, in American gas is explained by the difference in the cost of raw materials. Based on the Henry Hub index, the average gas price in the US is now around $ 3,6-4 per million BTUs, and in Asia around $ 15. Even taking into account liquefaction and transportation costs (about $ 6-8 per million BTU), the cost of gas remains attractive.



          РИА Новости http://ria.ru/economy/20131223/985920892.html#ixzz2yPST29s5
        2. smile
          smile April 9 2014 21: 21
          +1
          SWEET_SIXTEEN

          Just in case - one more quote and link, I don't add a single word.

          Moscow. 24 February. OilCapital.ru. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States by the end of the decade will compete with Russian gas in the European market, a region dependent on raw materials imports, says Berger Balteskard, director of LNG trading at ConocoPhillips.

          http://www.oilcapital.ru/export/232400.html
    2. Sterlya
      Sterlya April 9 2014 17: 11
      +2
      Quote: nikcris
      The description is very similar to another familiar country feel

      Do not say.
      Is there a lot of oil in Nigeria?
      There is simply no democracy ...
    3. Aljavad
      Aljavad April 9 2014 23: 25
      +1
      Yes Yes. A country recently improved dramatically by including income from prostitutes, drug dealers and underground casinos in its GDP. This is also part of the "national economy"!
      I cried crying

      Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems it was the USA ...
  8. Leopold
    Leopold April 9 2014 16: 43
    0
    It would not hurt us, too, to recalculate the GDP since 1917, you see, the growth would be more than the current 1.1%.
  9. Ilotan
    Ilotan April 9 2014 16: 56
    +1
    In Nigeria, population growth exceeds GDP growth, respectively, GDP per capita is declining. Add to this political instability: in the north there is a rampant Islamic fundamentalists, in the south there are pirates, in addition, there are strong separatist manifestations in various regions. I would not compare Nigeria with China, soon this bubble will burst.
    1. The comment was deleted.
  10. doc62
    doc62 April 9 2014 16: 57
    +2
    all these numbers from the evil one, they can be turned as your heart desires
    1. Renat
      Renat April 9 2014 18: 40
      0
      It was just a fruitful year for bananas.
    2. Aljavad
      Aljavad April 9 2014 23: 32
      0
      can be rotated

      Can. But it is impossible to work without statistics. For yourself you need. The article says so.
  11. parusnik
    parusnik April 9 2014 17: 00
    +1
    What is very beautiful, really no problem ..
  12. jagdpanzer
    jagdpanzer April 9 2014 17: 14
    +2
    I thought the real leap was. Ugh.
    1. Santa Fe
      Santa Fe April 9 2014 18: 07
      0
      Quote: jagdpanzer
      I thought the real leap was. Ugh.

      And what did you expect otherwise from Rossi Nigeria
  13. Lich
    Lich April 9 2014 17: 23
    +1
    Forward Nigeria, cho. Give the world a lot of new niggas)
    1. Vasyan1971
      Vasyan1971 April 9 2014 17: 51
      +1
      I have long wanted to know - is it possible to say "niger" in Nigeria? Or does this feature only channel the Yusovites?
      1. nerd.su
        nerd.su April 9 2014 20: 13
        +1
        Quote: Vasyan1971
        I have long wanted to know - is it possible to say "niger" in Nigeria?

        And what to say, if not a Negro? African African? laughing insanity of tolerance ... But the intonation must be monitored, they feel it.

        In Nigeria, okay, but there is the Republic of Niger to the north, and the Niger River flows through both of these countries (and several more). Niger from Niger with Nigerian Niger pirate in the Niger Delta ...
      2. Aljavad
        Aljavad April 9 2014 23: 34
        0
        Wait they all literate - offended even "Negro"
  14. 52
    52 April 9 2014 18: 02
    0
    Quote: Ilotan
    In Nigeria, population growth exceeds GDP growth, respectively, GDP per capita is declining. Add to this political instability: in the north there is a rampant Islamic fundamentalists, in the south there are pirates, in addition, there are strong separatist manifestations in various regions. I would not compare Nigeria with China, soon this bubble will burst.

    No! this is the pissing truth! After all, there are many types of "truth" in the world - true, brazen truth, weather forecast and, in general, Statistics!
  15. tnship2
    tnship2 April 9 2014 18: 21
    +1
    The clearing for the landing is probably being sharpened by the guys from the usa, what if Elovstone goes bang. Let's run away thinking to their historical homeland.
  16. A1L9E4K9S
    A1L9E4K9S April 9 2014 19: 00
    0
    And really, where to go? But Yellowstone will explode, it’s one hundred percent and don’t go to grandma. In Alaska, they will fit all who remain? Well, at least before the impending catastrophe, the world was not embittered against themselves, or they don't care.
    1. Aljavad
      Aljavad April 9 2014 23: 36
      0
      If Eluston explodes, there will be no resort ANYWHERE ....
      "Nuclear winter" - have you heard?
      When this happened last time, 3% of Sapiens survived.
  17. Moga
    Moga April 9 2014 19: 18
    0
    Well, the capital of Nigeria is by no means Lagos, as the article says, but Abuja.
    Sannu, Nigeria! Ina lafiya?
    Eh, and after all he could have been engaged in industrial espionage in this country, but life ordered otherwise ..
  18. voliador
    voliador April 9 2014 23: 48
    0
    It will be difficult to go forward on oil alone.