Military Review

Crimea can get nuclear status

51
Crimea can get nuclear status



By the decree of the President of Russia, the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol are included in the Southern Military District (South Military District). The signing of the document coincided with the activation of NATO forces on the eastern flank and the increase in the US military crisis-response grouping in Europe. If we consider the transfer of significant forces of the Ukrainian army to the borders from the Russian Federation, the threat of a military conflict in the region increases.

Russian military experts believe that Moscow should urgently increase the defense capability of the Crimea and solve problems to neutralize possible military threats from its territory. At the same time, there is an opinion that it is necessary to deploy a nuclear weaponwhich can be another important military argument in the forthcoming confrontation of the Russian Federation with NATO and the United States.

Director of the Center for Socio-Political Studies Vladimir Evseev believes that there are no formal obstacles to this. Including from the technical side. Before 1996, a nuclear-technical storage facility was already operating in the Crimea in the Sudak area, where nuclear munitions left over from Soviet times were located. Basically, they equipped artillery shells, submarine torpedoes, air force-based cruise missiles. Low-power nuclear mines were also stored here. In 1994, an agreement on the transfer of nuclear weapons to Russia was signed between the Russian Federation, the United States and Ukraine. Before 1996, this weapon was taken out from the territory of Crimea. But the store is left. So it is not difficult to restore it technically, Yevseyev believes. “But let us ask ourselves: how much does Russia need now? Collisions are possible here, because Western countries did not recognize Crimea, ”the expert notes.

At the same time, Yevseyev stresses that the military potential of the United States and NATO in conventional weapons is many times greater than the Russian one. And if this potential continues to build up close to our borders, Moscow will have a weighty argument - tactical nuclear weapons (TNW), which can be used from the territory of the peninsula.

Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, who at one time headed the Main Directorate of International Military Cooperation in the Russian Ministry of Defense, believes that the whipping up of military hysteria by NATO and the United States, their desire to increase the number of weapons and military groups near the Russian borders, may cause Moscow to retaliate. “De jure, nothing prevents us, for example, from deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Crimea that can be used on aviation and marine media. This, of course, will be a last resort. But our Western opponents should not forget about it. After all, Crimea is now Russian territory. And on our territory we can deploy any weapon if it does not contradict international treaties. And there are currently no restrictions on the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in the regions of Russia, ”the general notes.

There is no doubt that the formation of a new military infrastructure of the Southern Military District will begin in the near future in the Crimea. After all, many of those 193 Ukrainian military facilities that were on the peninsula before its entry into the Russian Federation, are not in the best condition. The Black Sea Fleet, due to bans from Kiev, has also not been updated for more than 20 years. Therefore, it is possible to call the decision of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the deployment of parts of the Air and Space Defense Forces in the Crimea. This was announced last week by Alexander V. Golovko, commander of the East Kazakhstan Oblast, to President Vladimir Putin.

Today, when the Crimea became Russian, the EKR troops acquired a unique National Center for the Control and Testing of Space Facilities, which is located near Evpatoria. At this facility, which was previously subordinate to the National Space Agency of Ukraine, they served around 230 Ukrainian troops. Almost all of them expressed a desire to serve in the Armed Forces of Russia. Another, apparently, important acquisition for the troops of the East Kazakhstan Oblast is the Dnepr-M radar missile attack warning system (SPRN) at Cape Chersonesos in Sevastopol. Until 2009, this object worked in the interests of Russia and Ukraine. However, after Ukraine demanded an increase in the rent for the use of the radar, Moscow refused the services of the Ukrainian military. But Kiev still operated the radar station at Cape Chersonese. Apparently, Russia will again be interested in this object. The Dnepr-M missile defense system in Sevastopol covers, among other things, the Middle East region and is capable of detecting launches of various types of ballistic missiles at 2,5 – 3,5 thousand kilometers. By the way, when Viktor Yushchenko was president of Ukraine, the United States offered to use the radar station in Sevastopol as an element of missile defense at the European theater of military operations (theater).

The naval forces will also be renewed. fleet and aviation on the peninsula. The General Staff of the Russian Navy plans to build six frigates for the Black Sea Fleet by 2016. Admiral Igor Kasatonov, Adviser to the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, is confident that the combat potential of the Black Sea Fleet, in addition to new ships, will be strengthened by diesel submarines (SS). They will obviously be located in Balaklava Bay. Here in the mountain there are special adits for basing submarines. Now the Black Sea Fleet has only one submarine. The increase in the number of submarines in the Black Sea Fleet is due to several reasons. First, they are needed for the prompt solution of combat missions in the Mediterranean. Secondly, they will be designed to solve problems in the Black Sea theater of military operations, including to protect the Crimean coast and other Black Sea territories of the Russian Federation. Thirdly, they are capable of carrying torpedoes with nuclear warheads to solve possible operational and tactical tasks in the Mediterranean and Black Sea theater of operations.
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http://www.ng.ru/armies/2014-04-04/1_crimea.html
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  1. mirag2
    mirag2 April 8 2014 07: 11
    -39%
    Yes, speculation is everything, it can do a lot of nuclear weapons, and other weapons of mass destruction. And Ukraine, too, can receive nuclear weapons and much more. It’s the same as saying that now all of Europe into autonomous lands, federations and regions can split. it will be too, but just will not.
    1. domokl
      domokl April 8 2014 07: 27
      +13
      Stupidity is complete, excuse me ...
      Quote: mirag2
      It can receive nuclear weapons, and another WMD. And Ukraine, too, can receive nuclear weapons and much more.

      NATO is already preparing to deploy tactical nuclear weapons at airdromes in eastern Europe. Ordinary weapons are already pulling up. And you have to be a complete idiot so that in such an environment you don’t take care of your people, your borders ... It’s clear that no one will force events, but inflict a blow at hour X is quite normal ... A little local war ...
      1. Canep
        Canep April 8 2014 07: 32
        -3
        It is necessary to transfer shock tank formations to the Crimea, I think one tank army is enough, and place Tu160 with cruise missiles.
        1. Alexander Romanov
          Alexander Romanov April 8 2014 07: 36
          +3
          Quote: Canep
          In Crimea, you need to transfer shock tank formations

          Hello, Sergey! This is where infa? And why in the Crimea, when Rostov is closer.
        2. domokl
          domokl April 8 2014 07: 39
          +18
          Quote: Canep
          In Crimea, you need to transfer shock tank formations

          laughing Sergey, hello ... Why the hell are we tanks there? Like to be there? Digging in all 7 kilometers wide ... And the tanks simply won’t be able to cross this line ... And in the Crimea itself, the terrain is such that the tanks there are more design than real power ... They need Airborne Forces Special Forces and GRU ... Marine, aviation and Strategic Missile Forces ... The rest have already arrived laughing
        3. JIaIIoTb
          JIaIIoTb April 8 2014 07: 59
          +11
          Let the strategists stay where they should be. They are absolutely not needed in Crimea. Crimea needs air defense systems and SD missiles. And then we will hold the whole of Europe by the tail.
        4. igor36
          igor36 April 8 2014 08: 36
          +1
          Quote: Canep
          I think one tank army is enough

          The Russian Armed Forces do not have tank armies; the ground forces consist of 10 combined armies.
        5. zeleznijdorojnik
          zeleznijdorojnik April 8 2014 08: 37
          +6
          We have no tank armies. Only brigades. Even if they were, drag them on a ferry to the Crimea, and then equip them with everything they need through the same arch-stupid ferries. There are only 2 exits from the Crimea — in both versions there are narrow strips, where you can put more than one tank army through plump remote mining. Where, again, in the Crimea to place them in a clean field? And nadodgo? The idea of ​​the TU-160 does not need comments at all. Strange statements at the level of the senior group of the kindergarten from a colleague already with marshal epaulets.
        6. Russ69
          Russ69 April 8 2014 09: 07
          +2
          Quote: Canep
          and deploy Tu160 with cruise missiles.

          And to hell in the Crimea Tu-160 .... smile Tu-22 is quite enough.
          1. aleks 62
            aleks 62 April 8 2014 09: 24
            +1
            ... Yeah ... There was already a whole division (3 regiments) .... And there were storage facilities for vigorous warheads at these airfields, and not just in Sudak ...
      2. mirag2
        mirag2 April 8 2014 07: 32
        +2
        Yatsenyuk to "prepare" the pipe to Europe to block, and what will block it? NO.
        Who knows what to prepare for? All this is talk.
      3. Name
        Name April 8 2014 07: 35
        +2
        So it is not in vain that the TU-22М3 is deployed in Crimea ... hi
      4. platitsyn70
        platitsyn70 April 8 2014 07: 40
        +1
        there are no regulations on tactical nuclear weapons and there is no ban on deployment either
        Back in February 2011, Barack Obama proposed that negotiations on tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) be launched a year after the entry into force of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-3), that is, no later than February 2012. Later, the president’s idea began to actively promote high representatives of the US foreign policy and defense departments. So how sincere is the United States in this ardent intention to “fight for world peace”? Why did Washington suddenly begin to show interest in resolving the problem of tactical nuclear weapons, which he avoided for many years?

        More information at http://voprosik.net/ssha-protiv-rossijskogo-takticheskogo-yadernogo-oruzhiya/ © QUESTION
        1. mirag2
          mirag2 April 8 2014 08: 05
          0
          Yes, the reduction of nuclear weapons is beneficial to the states because they will have to shoot down our missiles less.
    2. mamont5
      mamont5 April 8 2014 07: 36
      +5
      Quote: mirag2
      Ukraine can also get nuclear weapons and much more can.

      Alas, Ukraine now can’t do much, or maybe very little.
      1. bistrov.
        bistrov. April 8 2014 08: 28
        +4
        Quote: mamont5
        Alas, Ukraine now can’t do much, or maybe very little.

        Yes, and this is for the better. As you can imagine, these monkeys have power in Ukraine now. The nuclear weapon is already cold on the skin.
  2. Chifka
    Chifka April 8 2014 07: 14
    +12
    In Russia, the first unsinkable aircraft carrier, the Crimean Peninsula, has been revived and is now being equipped! And it is necessary to equip him in full, so that not a single "neighbor" would have any thoughts of even jabbing a battered club in our direction! For ogrebut in full ...
    1. domokl
      domokl April 8 2014 07: 30
      +2
      Quote: Chifka
      In Russia, revived and begin to equip the first unsinkable aircraft carrier

      Alas, aircraft carriers usually operate with the support of smaller ships. Otherwise, they turn into a target ... It’s impossible to solve the problem by strengthening firepower ... We need additional forces (naval bases, strategic airfields, etc.) to protect this aircraft carrier. the meaning, for example, of the new base in Novorossiysk is clear ...
    2. mirag2
      mirag2 April 8 2014 07: 35
      +2
      Where is the money?
      Just tell me where to get the money for it, after the Olympics, after 3 billion dollars in the social Crimea, after tens of billions to create our own payment system, losses after the fall of the markets (our MICEX, more precisely, etc.)?
      Where to get money for this "aircraft carrier"?
      The question is this: Russia will survive or not. Remember Putin said about 2 years ago (when the war began in Syria) -3 difficult years are waiting for us, or-or ...
      1. JIaIIoTb
        JIaIIoTb April 8 2014 08: 01
        +2
        Quote: mirag2
        The question is this: Russia will survive or not. Remember Putin said about 2 years ago (when the war began in Syria) -3 difficult years are waiting for us, or-or ...


        Therefore, we will find everything. And stand.
      2. biglow
        biglow April 8 2014 14: 44
        0
        Crimea will earn some of the money itself, now all Crimean finances in Ukraine have simply remained and you have to start all over again ... Crimea is not Chechnya, the people know how to work here and work ... Judging even by voting, most Crimeans were at home in Crimea .. .
  3. JoylyRoger
    JoylyRoger April 8 2014 07: 15
    +3
    I want to believe that the words with the deed will not go apart. And there are all reasons and reasons for optimism.
  4. VNP1958PVN
    VNP1958PVN April 8 2014 07: 15
    +3
    Crimea is Russia. Where necessary there and put, why "status". repeat
  5. Ruslan67
    Ruslan67 April 8 2014 07: 16
    +6
    What nah nuclear status if it is Russia? All-Russian health resort and tourist paradise fellow There is still not enough nuclear weapons. And so 20 years will have to be raked after the am
  6. NIVH
    NIVH April 8 2014 07: 21
    +5
    Improving the country's defense is the main task of the armed forces. And where and what - they themselves will figure it out!
  7. annodomene
    annodomene April 8 2014 07: 23
    +7
    You can store nuclear weapons in the Crimea. Thank God - Russia (unlike some ...) knows how to handle it.
  8. PSih2097
    PSih2097 April 8 2014 07: 23
    +3
    Crimea can get nuclear status

    Didn't Sevastopol have it before? wasn’t there a special warhead on the Volcanoes on the “Moscow” GRKR?
  9. ya.seliwerstov2013
    ya.seliwerstov2013 April 8 2014 07: 25
    0
    08.04.2014/00/19, Kiev 21:XNUMX:XNUMX Special police units from other regions of Ukraine arrived in the Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkov regions, said the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Arsen Avakov in his appeal circulated by the press service of the Ministry of Internal Affairs
    Our Foreign Ministry has already expressed concern about this. I think our analysts did not sleep that night and there is an action plan !!
    1. bistrov.
      bistrov. April 8 2014 08: 53
      +1
      Quote: ya.seliwerstov2013
      Our Foreign Ministry has already expressed concern about this. I think our analysts did not sleep that night and there is an action plan !!

      In order to predict the reaction of the illegal Kiev authorities to the events in the South and East of Ukraine, you do not need to stay up all night - it's elementary that they will use special forces to neutralize pro-Russian protests. Putin's goal, apparently, is to let them turn on into the process of confrontation and get bogged down in it, make you twitch back and forth. Those. create an appropriate "background" on which he can apply his trump cards. The creation of the so-called. "Independent republics" are the main element of these events, in fact, territorial formations are created, endowed with all the rights of a separate, independent state, which can conclude international agreements. This is the main thing. Now the goal is not to let this movement be destroyed, to make these republics exist for a while. Of course, the United States and its satellites will again raise a howl, but Russia is no longer used to it.
  10. TRex
    TRex April 8 2014 07: 29
    +2
    America was discovered - "nuclear status" ... If possible, the respected author can list all the subjects of the Federation in such a "status"?
    The presence of weapons systems in the troops with the ability to carry nuclear warheads by itself implies their presence, whether it be an airplane, a ship, or a PU ... Article is a minus.
  11. mamont5
    mamont5 April 8 2014 07: 31
    +2
    "... how much does Russia need now? Collisions are possible here, since the Western countries did not recognize Crimea," the expert notes.
    And to us that before this, that the countries of the West are such brakes? It is necessary to look like this, Russia needs to - it means to do it.

    "After all, Crimea is now Russian territory. And on our territory we can deploy any weapon if it does not contradict international treaties. And there are currently no restrictions on the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Russian regions"
    Absolutely correct! Our land! What we want is what we do. Where necessary - we plant vineyards, and where necessary - rockets.
  12. Partizan
    Partizan April 8 2014 07: 33
    0
    Quote: TRex
    "nuclear status" ... If possible, the respected author can list all the subjects of the Federation in such a "status"?

    stop it's a military secret
  13. The comment was deleted.
  14. afdjhbn67
    afdjhbn67 April 8 2014 07: 39
    +2
    read what I wrote, I still don’t understand, but the article is definitely positive, we’ve acquired the bridgehead, we must be happy ...
  15. Afinogen
    Afinogen April 8 2014 07: 40
    0
    Thirdly, they are capable of carrying torpedoes with nuclear warheads to solve possible operational and tactical tasks in the Mediterranean and Black Sea theater of operations.

    Is it that on the Black Sea they want to create a detachment of boats - kamikaz? laughing
    If a submarine shoots a torpedo with a nuclear warhead, then the fins themselves will glue together.
    1. arane
      arane April 8 2014 09: 31
      +2
      Do not stick together! I will not go into details, but will not stick together ...
  16. slovak007
    slovak007 April 8 2014 07: 41
    +1
    "Collisions are possible here, since Western countries did not recognize Crimea," the expert notes.
    Yes, do not care about this west, we look too much at them!
  17. kvnvolga2008
    kvnvolga2008 April 8 2014 07: 45
    0
    It is a reasonable and adequate solution to enhance the security of both the Crimea and Russia as a whole!
  18. avant-garde
    avant-garde April 8 2014 07: 51
    +1
    US will stop cooperation with Russia under the Nunn-Lugar program
    08.04.2014, 07: 04 | "Newspaper.Ru"
    The US plans to stop cooperation with Russia on a bilateral framework agreement to reduce the nuclear threat due to the situation in Ukraine. About this newspaper Kommersant.

    The Nunn-Lugar program, which provides for the reduction of threats from weapons of mass destruction, has been in force since 1992, in June 2013 the agreement was re-signed. According to him, there were fewer joint projects between Russia and the USA, and the access of inspectors from the USA to nuclear facilities was limited. The countries also maintained cooperation in the field of protection of nuclear materials, their disposal, customs control, conversion of highly enriched uranium to low enriched, safe storage of nuclear submarines.

    “We stopped all work on the physical protection of nuclear enterprises in Russia. Now 40% to 70% of the necessary equipment is installed at the facilities, but completion of the work will now have to be postponed, ”said Ann Harrington, spokeswoman for the US National Nuclear Safety Administration.

    From now on, all these projects will be frozen. Money for them has already been excluded from the draft budget of the US Department of Energy for 2015, and the costs of the International Material Protection and Cooperation program have been reduced by 27%. According to the newspaper, with these funds it was planned to complete the transportation of highly enriched uranium and plutonium to a single storage location, as well as deploy security complexes at the facilities in Ozersk and Arzamas-16.
    1. Afinogen
      Afinogen April 8 2014 07: 57
      +1
      Quote: avant-garde
      “We stopped all work on the physical protection of nuclear enterprises in Russia.


      Whose cow would mumble and be silent, let them protect their objects from the beginning.

    2. mirag2
      mirag2 April 8 2014 08: 08
      0
      Well, well ... The flag in their hands (gay).
  19. Sergey Sitnikov
    Sergey Sitnikov April 8 2014 07: 54
    +4
    but in my opinion, only by deeds prove intentions! Hare bolts to chat with all sorts of Kerry, Merkla, Rasmussen and others, we need to place everything we need everywhere, no one notifies us, and as Putin said explicitly on the fact of NATO deployments and deployments - Brussels should not forget about nuclear pies and chebureks!
  20. Denis 60 rus
    Denis 60 rus April 8 2014 07: 58
    +2
    a couple of "friendly" and "tolerant" missiles in Crimea will definitely not hurt. they say the health resort then works much better ...
  21. siberalt
    siberalt April 8 2014 08: 05
    0
    Yeah. Judging by the title, do we have some regions of Russia also have a nuclear status? What is it like? laughing There is a state with nuclear weapons. Wherever he wants it and post it.
  22. sv68
    sv68 April 8 2014 08: 10
    0
    placed-would silently without posting to the whole world. if there is a strategic objective and this is purely in the interests of Russia, act
  23. kartalovkolya
    kartalovkolya April 8 2014 08: 17
    +3
    We can defend ours with everything that we have, and nuclear weapons are no exception. And all agreements and treaties concluded with the United States are not even worth the paper on which they are written. The Americans wanted and withdrew from the ABM treaty. And what prevents them from unilaterally breaking any agreement? And it's time for us to send them to hell and do our job, and not calm down to urgently relocate the "Maidan" to the US borders. It's time to take retaliatory measures without reckoning with anything, and first of all, enough to prop up the dollar, let yourself fall ... Of course, any crisis can "hurt" us too, if the appropriate measures are not taken.
  24. Vadim12
    Vadim12 April 8 2014 08: 17
    +1
    Brahmos can also be equipped with a nuclear warhead, and the SU-30 can serve as a delivery vehicle. NATO has already delivered small bombs to its aircraft. Now where the army is, there are all kinds of weapons. The status of a nuclear region for a large military base is granted.
  25. svp67
    svp67 April 8 2014 08: 25
    +3
    But the news from Ukraine ...
    In the sky over Dnepropetrovsk two combat fighters flashed
    The military assures: nothing extraordinary, the MIGs are Ukrainian and patrol the country's airspace.
    This was reported by the regional media center of the Ministry of Defense.
    According to them, the MIG-29 fighters are on alert. The population should have no cause for concern.
    Meanwhile, aircraft flew over the city at a fairly low altitude. While flying over city buildings is prohibited.

    Only here are a couple of clarifications, even from the photo you can see that this is not a MiG29, but a Su27 ... And it is TE (already famous, the only modernized Su) that fly over the whole of Ukraine - demonstrating the "power" of the Ukrainian Air Force ... But just something WHAT is left "in the non-press". One of the Su could not land at the local air base for a long time, so long that he was already taken to the area where bailouts are usually carried out ... But nevertheless, he soon sat down. I think that our Air Force is already "trembling with fear"
    1. yulka2980
      yulka2980 April 8 2014 09: 19
      +1
      laughing Yes, they have everything there, it doesn’t sit down, it doesn’t pop up, or it doesn’t sink
  26. Ilja 22
    Ilja 22 April 8 2014 08: 25
    +2
    an opinion is expressed about the need to deploy nuclear weapons on the peninsula, which could be another important military argument in the upcoming confrontation between the Russian Federation and NATO and the United States.

    It is simply necessary to place nuclear weapons, Crimea is a huge bridgehead, which has always been laid eyes on by evil men, so you need to cover this eye with them, to protect yourself so that no star-striped look!
  27. Grach710
    Grach710 April 8 2014 09: 03
    +3
    Until 91, the most terrible for the West was the Soviet Army. No matter how ridiculed it was by our liberal gay intelligentsia, it was a terrible force. The task was one - victory in World War 3. The war did not happen, the task was not completed, the Great Army died together with the country. This is all for what. The deployment of short- and medium-range delivery vehicles in the Crimea will change the entire military situation in Europe. Again, Europeans will fall at night from narrow beds screaming: "RUSSIANS ARE COMING".
  28. kodxnumx
    kodxnumx April 8 2014 09: 05
    0
    you can be sure at the same time, RUSSIA will not be left alone and I’m sure the leadership of the Defense Ministry will take all the necessary steps, understand everything, and in general we will witness how in the near future everything in the world will change radically and we are in the privacy!
  29. ed65b
    ed65b April 8 2014 09: 19
    +1
    Hi all, hi Can you imagine a small, tactical nuclear strike against Europe? For Europe with its scanty territory, this will be a fatal outcome. the collapse of not only economics but also demography. Europe will not do that. Well, we loudly warned and let them know correctly, and when they know it, they will think it 100 times before taking a step.
  30. Giant thought
    Giant thought April 8 2014 09: 20
    0
    The faster nuclear weapons are deployed in Crimea, the faster NATO’s hot heads will cool. And to pay less on yapping from behind a hill, our territory, what we need, we do.
  31. Voenruk
    Voenruk April 8 2014 09: 22
    0
    No need for nuclear weapons there, meaning !? Better to install another Voronezh-type radar and scan Europe to Gibraltar.
  32. Koli48
    Koli48 April 8 2014 09: 57
    0
    The organizers of this house are the United States, the European Union humbly bowed before the owner from Washington. Europe itself is essentially under pressure. The Americans need to be put in their place, before it is too late, to show them the second "Kuzka's mother", the clearer, the clearer it is!
  33. Klim2011
    Klim2011 April 8 2014 11: 58
    0
    Another, apparently, an important acquisition for the East Kazakhstan region’s forces is the Dnepr-M radar missile attack warning system (SPRN) at Cape Khersones in Sevastopol. Until 2009, this facility worked in the interests of Russia and Ukraine. However, after Ukraine demanded to increase the rent for the use of the radar, Moscow refused the services of the Ukrainian military.

    It seems to me that we left the Gabala radar station for the same reasons wink
  34. turanchox
    turanchox April 8 2014 15: 46
    0
    the combat potential of the Black Sea Fleet, in addition to new ships, will be strengthened by diesel submarines. They will obviously be placed in Balaklava Bay. Here in the mountain there are special adits for basing submarines.

    very funny, those adits were drilled for the tiny pr.613
  35. kelevra
    kelevra April 8 2014 16: 54
    0
    Our territory! If Putin believes that it will be right, then it’s worth it!
  36. gammipapa
    gammipapa April 8 2014 22: 35
    0
    Crimea is our aircraft carrier, this ship should be not only beautiful, but also well-armed. And the nuclear weapon will be quite to his face. Perhaps this is the only convincing argument today about not attacking. No one has yet come up with a more convincing one.