Military Review

Winner Erdogan?

25
In Turkey, the Justice and Development Party won in the March municipal elections 30, which received almost half of the votes. Neither a major corruption scandal, nor the resignation, nor the police purge, undertaken by Erdogan, nor the street protests that began because of the dark stories with Gezi Park, neither the Ergenekon case, nor the criticism of the authoritarian actions of the Turkish government by the West, nor excessive control over the Internet introduced by Erdogan - nothing prevented the unsinkable prime minister from winning. However, analysts say that Erdogan’s victory is not so impressive compared with the victories he won in the elections earlier. Actually, this is not even the victory of Erdogan, it is the victory of the party. The party, which now consists of a mass of opponents of the current Prime Minister.



Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan announced the victory of his party in the local elections. Photo http://www.islam.ru


According to press reports, the AKP won elections in most of the districts of Turkey, gaining a total of 45% of votes. In Ankara and Istanbul, the party also “taxis”. And this is despite the fact that it was Erdogan who caused discontent among the people with his construction projects, purges in the army and police, and the ban on Twitter and YouTube. This is not to mention the corruption scandal in which the members of the government were implicated, as well as Erdogan himself and his son Bilal (two telephone conversations between them just hit the Internet).

It is the question of freedom of speech (in our time it can also be called freedom of the Internet) - one of the reasons for a serious split in the AKP. The official 21 ban of March on Twitter in Turkey was harshly criticized by the country's president, Abdullah Gul, previously considered the closest associate of Erdogan. According to the president, blocking Twitter is illegal.

Another crack in the AKP was after a corruption scandal. Approximately half of the party “disowned” from Erdogan and lined up under the banner of the Hizmet movement, led by the pro-Western (more precisely, pro-American) Fethullah Gülen, who now lives in the United States. R. T. Erdogan said about this influential person that he betrayed the interests of Turkey. According to the prime minister, the Turks will not "surrender to Pennsylvania and the arms stretching from there." Nevertheless, the resignation of 10 ministers, which Erdogan had to go after the corruption scandal, is a reflection of the split in the party and, if you will, the achievement of Gulen and the defeat of Erdogan.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan can today declare publicly his victory, and even that soon he will finally get rid of his opponents, but it seems that his victory cannot be called convincing, if only because the elections were generally municipal. People voted for local candidates from the party, and not at all for Erdogan. In Turkey, it is customary to identify the policy of the AKP with economic stability, and people still believe that Turkey will return to the road of this very stability, although today it’s not as good with the country's economy as it was several years ago - growth is not the same, and protests and stability scandals do not add. People know about the split in the AKP, and therefore, half of the votes cast for the candidates from the party, you can safely declare votes against Erdogan. The behavior of the premier is more like acting bravado. These elections, in essence, foreshadow his political decline.

Therefore, the headlines in the media with the words "Erdogan's triumph" seem frivolous or even biased.

It is imperative to take into account in the "victory" of Erdogan and the factor of the Internet. The blocking of unwanted resources before the elections allowed Erdogan to reduce the critical intensity in the society - in its own favor, of course. He made another move, such as taking into account the will of the people: Ankara 26 court in March adopted a resolution on unblocking the Twitter microblogging service. The trick is that the constitutional court delivered a confirming verdict right after the elections. So say after this that the branches of power in Turkey did not grow together into one strong bough ...

In August, the country will hold presidential elections, and, I suppose, Twitter and YouTube will again be locked up.

The well-known analyst El Murid strongly doubts the possibility of a future career for the prime minister. On ITAR-TASS His article was published, where he suggests that the Turkish Prime Minister has ceased to organize the United States.

Last year's protests on Taksim, the expert believes, remind the Ukrainian Maidan and Cairo Tahrir Square. And they became the last warning for Erdogan. That is why he closed social networks and websites: he broke the script of the “color revolution”. But, according to El Murid, events can be launched in the summer, in the presidential election. However, there are other opportunities to create problems for Erdogan - and also in the summer.

Recently, in the north of Syria, a group of militants, including foreign mercenaries, attacked an Armenian enclave with a center in Kessab. The massacre, the killing of prisoners, children, old people, the expulsion of the Armenians - everything, the analyst writes, was done with a challenge and “to the public”. Armenian diasporas are sounding the alarm. The worldwide movement #SaveKessab has already been created, and the Armenian public organization ANSA received a response from the US State Department, which condemned the actions of the militants. El Murid writes:

“In fact, Turkey can now be held accountable for mass slaughter, reminiscent of the Armenian genocide. Just because the attack came from its territory, with the help of its military. The Turkish army, not hiding too much, is supporting the militants, in particular, the recent incident with the downed Syrian aircraft occurred just in this area.

The problem of Erdogan is that he can simply be put before his fact by his military and special services, while the real customer of the operation may be those who now condemn it. That does not relieve him of responsibility for what is happening. "


The “operation” in Syria can be a provocation that will have unpleasant consequences for Erdogan: US senators and the State Department can investigate the massacre. Before the presidential elections in Turkey, the results of the investigation will be received. El Murid has no doubt that "Erdogan became displeased with the American authorities." And how “it will be cleaned depends only on those to whom it is entrusted.”

So, we are waiting for the August presidential election. Erdogan is aiming for the presidency and even counts on the support of the Kurds. True, the Kurdistan Workers Party after the elections of March 30 condemned falsification and theft of ballots, as well as the participation of military and civil servants in voting in Kurdish areas ...

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
25 comments
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  1. mirag2
    mirag2 April 5 2014 08: 13
    +2
    Yes. Turkey's policy - "the devil will break his leg" - the theme is that the states pick Erdogan's "colored springs".
    But why? It seems he is conducting a pro-Western policy.
    And now there, Saudi Arabs with Jews, after weakening the attention of the United States, neatly flowed into this niche ...
    The tangle is messed up, although in fact it should be like this "and the casket just opened."
    Is there anyone more knowledgeable about the intricacies of Turkish "multi-way"?
    1. My address
      My address April 5 2014 08: 26
      +2
      God knows what will happen in Turkey.
      What is throwing. And good relations with Russia, and interceptions of our civil aircraft, and the desire of a small, victorious war with Syria, and flirting with the Kurds. Something from our policy and yours, which will rarely end in good.
      1. mirag2
        mirag2 April 5 2014 08: 29
        +2
        Exactly.
        "Throwing" is when Turkey does not know what it is doing. And if it does? Then the most interesting question is what is the goal?
        Well, besides creating a new Ottoman Empire?
        1. Turkir
          Turkir April 5 2014 22: 01
          0
          I guess - Turkey, prompted by the United States, wants to "free" Europe's dependence on energy resources from Russia, has embarked on a course to defeat Syria.
          An oil and gas pipe will be built from Qatar, through Syria and Turkey, Bulgaria to EUROPE. The consequence is obvious - the economic weakening of Russia and the fueling of the American fleet throughout the entire Mediterranean Sea. In the meantime, Syria is being removed as a obstinate figure.
          I want to remind you that the entire Syrian territory was under Turkish rule before the First World War. Apparently, Turkey will lay claim to Syrian territory.
      2. buzer
        buzer April 5 2014 08: 54
        +2
        During the war, under the guise, many issues can be resolved. To push all democracy to the fingernail, to profit from the war, you can’t be sickly, you can raise the rating among homegrown s (not only Erdogan is yearning for the Ottoman Empire), you can mobilize the entire electorate and send your homeland to defend ... It seems that they decided to let off steam at the expense of the Syrians (on the others assaulting)
        1. sss5.papu
          sss5.papu April 5 2014 20: 44
          -1
          Quote: buzer
          During the war, under the guise, many issues can be resolved. To push all democracy to the fingernail, to profit from the war, you can’t be sickly, you can raise the rating among homegrown s (not only Erdogan is yearning for the Ottoman Empire), you can mobilize the entire electorate and send your homeland to defend ... It seems that they decided to let off steam at the expense of the Syrians (on the others assaulting)

          That's it, one to one, like Putin in Russia.
      3. GHG
        GHG April 5 2014 11: 35
        0
        Yes, the Turks (the Turks? laughing ) now, in principle, there is no choice ... for those or these. Dilemma: Their choice is not particularly relevant for us, it is not the Turks who decide.
        1. Hort
          Hort April 7 2014 09: 11
          0
          the Turkmens mostly live on the coast of Antalya-Alanya laughing
    2. APASUS
      APASUS April 5 2014 19: 35
      +1
      Quote: mirag2
      Yes. Turkey's policy - "the devil himself will break his leg" - the theme is that they pick with "colored springs"

      In people's heads, everything turned upside down, they began to call coups in the spring ......... forgot already what it looks like?
      1. GHG
        GHG April 6 2014 16: 22
        0
        The war will be ... I hope this does not reach
  2. DimDimych
    DimDimych April 5 2014 08: 49
    0
    Erdogan certainly wants to become independent, but the Omerikans will never allow him to do this.
  3. omsbon
    omsbon April 5 2014 08: 57
    0
    Last year's protests on Taksim, the expert believes, remind the Ukrainian Maidan and Cairo Tahrir Square. And they became the last warning for Erdogan. That is why he closed social networks and websites: he broke the script of the “color revolution”. But, according to El Murid, events can be launched in the summer, in the presidential election. However, there are other opportunities to create problems for Erdogan - and also in the summer.


    In a fast-paced world, Erdogan must determine his position. Both yours and ours will fail!
  4. ZU-23
    ZU-23 April 5 2014 09: 27
    0
    Elections should be on camera like in Russia, it’s time to introduce a global standard for video surveillance of the elections, then we’ll see how the people support Erdogan, and the Americans can begin to remove him after he ceases to provoke Syria to war. Erdogan had already thought that it would be time to focus on Russia, but his hands are already in blood, there’s nowhere to run, now every second Western vassal who hasn’t cut into the greatness of Russia is in such a situation, which means that these countries do not have their own full-fledged intelligence economy etc., because it’s all in the hands of the Americans and they mislead everyone around them in order to lead astray.
  5. sv68
    sv68 April 5 2014 10: 26
    +2
    Erdogan, have you found oil and gas there by accident? otherwise the Yankees want to visit with democracy and tolerance
  6. parus2nik
    parus2nik April 5 2014 10: 54
    0
    We are waiting for a new presidential election or the next military coup .. Erdogan did not clean up everyone .. East, a delicate matter ..
  7. Sypress
    Sypress April 5 2014 11: 19
    0
    In the course of Erdogan, for their independence, the Americans decided to merge. This is bad .. Erdogan, though strange, not by dreams, but not by the P.I. Endos, but is playing some kind of his own game, but he is nevertheless better than the protege of the P.I. Endos on the border with Syria, and on the entrance to the Black Sea.
  8. Anton Gavrilov
    Anton Gavrilov April 5 2014 13: 16
    0
    Let's see what the presidential will be.
  9. Nikich
    Nikich April 5 2014 14: 59
    0
    Erdogan coarse fucked up, which is in the hands of the Americans. Next, let's see what will happen
  10. andrei72
    andrei72 April 5 2014 16: 27
    0
    Quote: Nikich
    Erdogan coarse fucked up, which is in the hands of the Americans. Next, let's see what will happen
    Where did he "screw up"? Syria is VERY WEAK, Assad's regime is "in the balance" and if Turkey hits Syria with full force, success is guaranteed. The task of the Russian Federation is just NOT TO ADMIT such a scenario, clearly not helping the enemies of Turkey (but it MUST be done secretly so that Turkey has internal problems and has no time for a war with the Syrians).
  11. Turkir
    Turkir April 5 2014 17: 37
    -2
    Erdogan "screwed up" in that, in an attempt to unleash military actions in Syria, he did not coordinate them with the United States and, as a result of the massacre of Armenians, put the United States in a very "uncomfortable" position. This happens with slaves who, anticipating the wishes of their master, use them, the owners, for their own benefit.
    Erdogan "screwed up" in full, without an order "face", there is nothing to twitch.
    One cannot love power more than the king himself.
  12. The comment was deleted.
  13. siberalt
    siberalt April 5 2014 23: 32
    0
    Re-elect Erdogan - nothing will change. Turkey will be seething.
  14. Hitrovan07
    Hitrovan07 April 6 2014 08: 41
    -3
    It is necessary to negotiate with Turkey. This is a powerful possible ally. And Erdogan upstairs or someone else - there will be a different approach to the negotiations and nothing more.
  15. Black
    Black April 6 2014 12: 16
    +3
    Well, about everything - about Syria, about the Kurds, about the opposition, about Europe and the USA ...
    There is not only the most important thing about what is happening in Turkey itself.
    And there, guys, everything plows, smokes, is being built. Soon Anatolia will be smooth as a board. It seems that there is already not a single mountain that the Turks did not pick out !!! - grinded- into bags, crushed- into roads..And what roads, brothers !!, -lookingly expensive .. housing construction- everywhere, modern houses, fundamentally, envy beret....
    Everything that is at least a little suitable for arable land is plowed up. Minifactories, artels ... AND PUT ALL !!! From morning till night!

    That is why Erdogan, despite Western attempts to merge it, is strong.
  16. andrei72
    andrei72 April 6 2014 16: 27
    0
    Quote: Nikich
    Erdogan coarse fucked up, which is in the hands of the Americans. Next, let's see what will happen
    Where did he "screw up"? Syria is VERY WEAK, Assad's regime is "in the balance" and if Turkey hits Syria with full force, success is guaranteed. The task of the Russian Federation is just NOT TO ADMIT such a scenario, clearly not helping the enemies of Turkey (but it MUST be done secretly so that Turkey has internal problems and has no time for a war with the Syrians).
    Quote: Turkir
    Erdogan "screwed up" in that, in an attempt to unleash military actions in Syria, he did not coordinate them with the United States and, as a result of the massacre of Armenians, put the United States in a very "uncomfortable" position. This happens with slaves who, anticipating the wishes of their master, use them, the owners, for their own benefit.
    Erdogan "screwed up" in full, without an order "face", there is nothing to twitch.
    One cannot love power more than the king himself.
    How do you know that Erdogan DIDN'T RECEIVE the corresponding order? And how will the massacre of the Armenians in the USA interfere? All these actions "play into the hands" of the United States, with its principle of "divide and rule": i.e. will sell their weapons to both of them + another reason to get in with "their democracy" in any of the conflicting countries. In addition, the worse all countries live, the more they have an outflow of money into the world currency - US dollars (which is again beneficial for the United States).
  17. PATTIY
    PATTIY April 6 2014 21: 03
    +1
    Oh! as it seems to Ukrainians. she was also promised association in the EU.
    Turkey - have long been promised. But neither one nor the other is waiting there.
    it's a bait and swallowed it will be caught sooner or later.
  18. Alexandr0id
    Alexandr0id April 6 2014 23: 16
    0
    all our assessments of the situation in Turkey are based on our own experience, we are, as it were, transferring Russian realities to other countries.
    whether Erdogan will be in power or not will not greatly affect Turkey. be that as it may, this is already a long-standing democracy (with its own characteristics, but nonetheless), there is no power vertical, as we have. choke Putin right now at dinner and in the country collapse, because everything is tied to it. the same misfortune in tyranny friendly to us - Iraq, Libya, Syria, North Korea. everything is tied to one chela - he will die and everything will go to hell.
    You can’t lead to this.
  19. Bob
    Bob April 6 2014 23: 20
    0
    Americans will try to unleash a conflict in Turkey to:
    1) destabilize the region adjacent to Syria, Russia, the North Caucasus, China and Asia
    2) to export the Arab spring further to Asia, the North Caucasus, Russia and China
    3) bring puppet government to power in Turkey
    4) get unlimited access to the Black Sea to put in jeopardy (global - lightning fast - disarming, according to military doctrine) the entire South and Center of Russia.
    And it seems that this plan has already been launched. Nothing can help Erdogan, because inside the country he has no support in his political-military-civil elite, and it is only a matter of time before they come for him — either the military, as in Egypt, or the crowd, as in Libya. In principle, this is the same plan for the destruction of the state by revolution with the dismantling of everything and everything, so that chaos reigns. And then, on the principle of dominoes, other states, the main enemies of America - Russia and China - should be scattered.
    In their response to these events, the Russian Federation and China should proceed from the following:
    1) a large-scale and very effective mechanism of destabilization has been launched against Russia and China, which is fraught with serious consequences for them - political, military, economic, social
    2) the state (USA), initiating this crisis, is trying in every possible way to hide its true face by disguising itself as a peacemaker, or by speaking not with one face-head, but with a multitude - the notorious NATO unit (a kind of hydra with many heads)
    3) to protect their states and vital interests in the countries adjacent to them, the PRC and Russia can and must combine their forces and resources in order to destroy the enemy
    4) the time for creating a military-economic union is limited
    5) provocations of Western countries against Russia and China can alienate them from each other, therefore, a cold mind and a firm determination to go all the way together until the problem is resolved, or any danger to the states disappears
    6) for the security of Russia, it requires mastering the Black Sea theater of operations (southern direction) with control over the Mediterranean region, as well as blocking threats from the Baltic states (northern direction)
    7) military operations in these areas can only be planned as a reaction to emerging threats from the enemy in order to have a positive moral attitude in the Armed Forces, information background in society.
    8) the ultimate goal of operations is to undermine the will and ability of the enemy to conduct offensive operations for a considerable time period in order to subsequently use the accumulated resources for the final defeat of the enemy - it is possible by his own methods.
  20. Atash
    Atash April 7 2014 09: 52
    0
    Turkey is torn in half. The military is drawn to the West - NATO, the EU. Erdogan is committed to independent international politics. The modern version of the non-aligned movement. But this is not allowed to small countries. China, India can be independent - huge what you do. Iran is independent, but how expensive it is. So Erdogan has problems. Apparently, he does not control actions in Syria, the military does not obey him.