Actually, economic reasons have been discussed by us for more than 10 years. They consist in the fact that 30 and more than years of stimulating demand have led to a situation in which households consume much more than they receive: household spending in the European Union and the US exceed their real disposable incomes by 20 – 25%. At present, almost all instruments of stimulating demand have been exhausted - and it begins to fall. It is in this fall in private demand that the basic mechanism of the crisis consists, and there is no reason to believe that it will stop soon.
This theory of ours, however, says nothing about the timing of the beginning of a particular stage of the crisis; here we need to more thoroughly understand concrete details. The 2008 crisis of the year was visible in the sharp rise in private debt, and what threatens us today? According to most experts, this is a “bubble” in the US stock market, which has long been disconnected from the real economic performance of companies and is growing sharply against the background of a stagnant economy.
We here, on our website, have repeatedly noted that, most likely, the “bubble” will break through to the middle of 2015. But today there is information that about the same opinion among the leadership of the Fed. In any case, this is the way to interpret the words of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen at a press conference after the last meeting of the Federal Reserve Committee of the US Federal Reserve. She said that by the end of 2015, the Fed's discount rate would rise significantly - to a few percent.
Given the current state of accumulated debts and the state of corporate finance, such an increase will cause massive bankruptcies of households and financial institutions and a complete collapse of the financial system. In other words, an increase in interest rates will either in itself cause another wave of crisis, or else it should occur after the crisis, as a way to reduce the sharply increased inflation. If we assume that the stock market crash will occur until the middle of 15, then Yellen's words absolutely adequately describe the rational financial policy of the monetary authorities, she only modestly kept silent about the collapse.
This situation means that the United States does not have much time to prepare for a serious weakening of the role of the dollar on the world stage and, accordingly, to strengthen regional currencies. Actually, the maximum that they can count on is a year and a half. And during this time they have to prepare for the fact that the main instrument for managing the situation in the world, the control over the turnover of the world reserve and trading currency - the dollar - will sharply weaken.
It is clear that in such a situation they should focus on those currencies that will increase as a result of this wave of crisis. And this reinforcement should be limited as much as possible and, if possible, coordinated with its policy. There are still tools for this, but all the resources need to be directed specifically to the solution of this task, everything else does not play a special role today.
And what currencies can theoretically increase dramatically? If you look at our environment, then three: the euro, the yuan and the ruble. And what do we see? The United States dramatically enhances the process of negotiating the creation of a free trade zone between the EU and the US (which actually turns Western Europe into a US trade colony), increases tensions in Ukraine (that is, on the way of the new Silk Road from China to Western Europe), frighten the EU Russia.
I will not write about China here (except for attempts to interrupt the interaction of China and the EU or, otherwise, to prevent China from seizing the markets of Western Europe), but it’s worth to say about the ruble. The liberal (that is, pro-American) lobby in the government and the Central Bank of Russia is actively trying to prevent the creation of a full-fledged ruble financial system. This can be clearly seen from the way Sberbank and the Central Bank agreed on the promotion of a deliberately disastrous project to create a national payment system based on the Sberbank’s “universal card”, despite the fact that there is an OPC infrastructure that allows you to create such a payment system literally within a month. However, almost all the actions of the Central Bank today are aimed at maintaining or increasing the dependence of our economy on the dollar.
In this situation, it is clear what the problem is in Ukraine. It has become a hostage to the strategic problems of the United States, because it is between the main potential competitors of the dollar, and it has no chances to avoid a crisis - the forces are clearly disproportionate. However, the US activity over the next year will become the basis of instability in a very large number of regions, Turkey is an example. And the above arguments show why the United States will not give up its policy. As the saying goes, "nothing personal, only business." Well, in our case - only politics.
What conclusions can be drawn from all this? What you need to prepare. The cards have already been handed out, there will be no fundamental changes. We need to prepare for the collapse of Ukraine (although it’s not worthwhile to stimulate it, here the US and their agents in Kiev can cope without us), it is necessary to strengthen economic policy, reducing our dependence on imports and the US dollar. We need to build a long-term strategic partnership with China (and so that he also perceives it as a long-term and partnership, and not as a tactical trick to get from us what he needs). Finally, you need to start fighting your own corruption, and because, as Lukashenko said well, when the government thinks only about enrichment, it loses the country, and because our American advisers are “corrupted” by us and its continuation keeps our dependence on this country.
In general, it is necessary to work.