Leonid Ivashov: The Geopolitical Situation in North Africa
The dramatic events in North Africa posed many problems for analysts and experts from geopolitics for careful analysis and research. Some, above all, of a liberal type of theory, concepts and constructions collapsed overnight, others have not yet gained a complete scientific - reasoned basis. But events in the Arab world are closely intertwined with the development of the global situation.
What is happening in the modern world, it is difficult to identify with any one traditional phrase. The events that are taking place are too complex and diverse, the prospects for the development of mankind are completely unclear, and the development trends appear quite vague in their diversity and inconsistency.
On the one hand, the laws, laws and subjects of traditional geopolitics clearly manifest themselves, theories and concepts of which define the international situation and history Twentieth century. But on the other hand, political forces, subjects of world processes, not described by classical geopolitics, emerged and gained political power. First of all, these are transnational global communities that are trying to subjugate peoples, states, world and local civilizations, and imposing on humanity their own understanding of the world order, meaning of life, and development goals. They curbed the objective processes of globalization in their own interests, compelling not only people to serve them, but also nature, near space, ocean depths, the intelligence accumulated and re-acquired by humanity. They form a new world order for themselves, their world power, for their interests and profits. Purpose: the creation of a single planetary space, controlled by the global financial elite.
The formula of global power is proclaimed: control over key areas of the world, strategic communications, the most important resources of the planet. The strategy of actions is a clash of civilizations, military and information-psychological suppression of the dissenters, the creation of the potential of absolute military superiority, financial and criminal control over the ruling elites of all countries of the world. The main toolkit of the new world order is money: the American dollar, above all. The situation accompanying the achievement of the goal is a global systemic crisis, world chaos. The world's controlled media act as a tool for disinformation and lead public opinion to false goals. The global confrontation today is unfolding between the three leading centers of power: Western civilization — the growing civilizations of the East — the transnational community, the most powerful and most aggressive subject of world processes. At the beginning of the twenty-first century, patterns began to manifest themselves clearly in the development of the human community, predicted by early geopolitics. Thus, a social organization develops in the direction from ethnic groups, nations and peoples, drawn up by the state framework, to ethno-cultural civilizations. The most characteristic example is uniting Europe. Using the most modern humanitarian technologies, the Europeans, not without problems and difficulties, form a single cultural and civilizational space - the European community. The same thing happens in China, India, in Latin America. It seems that a similar process has been launched in the Islamic world. At the same time, the state loses its position as the main subject of world processes. It is subjected to powerful attacks of the transnational financial community, crises, discrediting, including such network communities like WikiLeaks.
The global economy is in the process of creating large economic zones, “tied”, primarily to its social organization, as the main consumer and investor. In the science and technology sphere, where Americans set the tone, programs of the fifth technological mode are being developed, and the United States is forming platforms for the sixth way of technology (nanotechnology, eugenics, other forms of life, universal analyzers, climatic weapon). In the United States, more than 30 sci-fi centers have been created and operate in which the best minds from all over the world gather. South Korea 43% of its GDP invests as investment in innovative projects.
But, one of the problems in the implementation of these global patterns, the problem arises of the formation of the corresponding human archetype. The image of the human being of the future imposed by the West cannot be projected onto the human community that is being formed today: the human archetype is being formed, not only unlike its recent ancestors, but along with the animal instincts, it carries the principles of life that are contrary to the laws of living nature.
A man of a marginal type, thoughtless, amazed by unnatural instincts, is being formed to replace homo sapiens. And, naturally, there is a need for a new archetype of a person combining the qualities of high spirituality, morality, justice, outstanding intellect, based on an understanding of the material and metaphysical worlds.
Unfortunately, today the elites with limited thinking, the most base inhuman instincts, who are not capable of not only managing complex systems, but who do not understand the meaning of this management and who do not have the methods of geopolitical analysis and strategic planning, come to manage countries and peoples, civilizations and historical processes. . But they are just pawns in the big game of global forces. They are led to imaginary power in order to create the illusion of democracy, order and care for their people. The network of shadow mafia-type structures, such as the international financial oligarchy, the drug mafia (with annual drug trafficking of the order 1 trillion dollars), trading intermediary TNCs, underground structures of dealers of living goods (children, prostitutes, victims of seized human organs), arms dealers, private military corporations, a network of masonic lodges, etc. A situation has arisen where all the peoples of the world live in a state of alarm (and panic) without seeing t their certain future, do not feel safe. And, at the same time, they do not see (with rare exceptions) an obvious opponent. And all these phenomena of life are rightly connected by the peoples of the world with the civilization of the West. European geopolitical researcher I. Ramone writes: “The colossal disorder mixed everything in the geopolitical alignment of forces after the Cold War. Everyone is looking for meaning, everyone wants to understand WHAT IS HAPPENING ”(Ramone I. Geopolitics of Chaos. Trans. From French. M., TEIS, 2001. P. 12). Russian researchers Y. Drozdov and A. Markin in the recently published book “From the Cold War to the Restart” (M., Artstil-polygraphy, 2010, s.78) draw the following conclusion: “Powerful transnational oligarchic clans have already determined the future of everything mankind, and the academic circles of the West even gave it a scientific-theoretical form for greater persuasiveness. ”
The human and natural potentials are used by the above forces not for the benefit of the development of all mankind, but for insane power over the world of the antisocial caste of people. In order to establish world domination, the power of America and Western Europe is fully used, the NATO bloc acquires global functions, new types of weapons of mass destruction are being secretly created, such as climatic, psychotronic, and genetic.
The spiritual side of life is gradually leaving the area of the Western man, the universal world religion is being insistently introduced, where the concept of God is replaced by faith in man - the guru, in God's chosen people, the crucifixion of Christ - by the Holocaust, the church - by sectology, the new age - the Age and others. The Catholic Church, like all Western Christianity, is experiencing an acute moral and ethical crisis. The spiritual side of the life of the Western world is rapidly deteriorating. But, at the same time, attempts are continuing to impose the Western way of life on all of humanity.
International organizations, and, above all, the UN are artificially discredited, are affirmed in their inability to solve world problems. And all this is happening against the background of increasing social stratification: on the one hand, the number of super-rich people is growing, on the other - a quarter of the world's population lives below the poverty line. This gap is constantly increasing, which forms a global field of social tension.
Mankind, through the creation of a situation of chaos, irresistible suffering, a sense of hopelessness, comes to the idea of creating a single organ of world power endowed with global dictatorial powers. Today this shadow force claims to be the main subject of world historical processes. States, and even unions of states, are not able to resist the shadow monster, and their ruling elites (because of their inadequacy to the challenges and low moral and business qualities) become easy prey for the global network of financial capital, criminal structures and ideology of the new world order. States lose their subjectivity in world processes, their role decreases, the state is not able to maintain social justice in society. Even in the IV century, Blessed Augustine argued that a state without justice, there is a gang of robbers. Unions of states continue to play a certain role, but they too become unsustainable. The world financial oligarchy, which forms a single global money space, an open world market, a universal system of liberal values, and a universal religion, is actively moving to the role of the main subject in world politics and economics. In response to a similar global challenge, the role of other actors in world processes is being advanced by ethnocultural world civilizations that preserve the collectivist principles of life and spiritual values. As a matter of fact, the process of the revival of civilizations and their access to the leading global positions is going on, as our eminent geopolitics N.Ya. wrote about it in 1871. Danilevsky. It is civilizational entities that will form the basis of the geopolitical systems of the current century. Today, as before, the confrontation between two global civilization projects - the West and the East - is being read. At the same time, the Western project, named by a number of specialists as the Global Criminal Project, includes a number of private projects of a global level: Anglo-Saxon (Protestant), Roman-German (Catholic), financial-Zionist (Judean). At the same time, Western civilization, both of its matrices, Romano-Germanic and Anglo-Saxon, affected by liberalism, mercantilism, and in a state of intense competition, are likely to lose their leading positions in world processes by the middle of the century. The global financial oligarchy parasitizing on the body of mankind (the third matrix building the “Eternal Kingdom of Israel”) will also weaken along with the dollar and the West. The East will dominate, having preserved its cultural and civilizational traditions, vital energy and historical perspective. As part of the Eastern project, China, as the leader of the political-economic, India, as a powerful traditional spiritual potential of the future, has already become apparent. As a trend, the revival of the ancient civilizational principles in Latin America in symbiosis with protest Catholicism can be noted. The world of Islam, preserving its tradition and religion, failed to combine them with the needs of the modernization of the economy and social life.
What we are seeing today in the Middle East is just a manifestation of global processes and trends. The Arab world was at the epicenter of a global clash of leading global forces, in the struggle of which the geopolitical structure of the twenty-first century is being formed.
What is the current Arab world? First of all, this is the historical core of Islamic civilization, which also has the largest hydrocarbon reserves in the world, without which in the next century any economy of the world will face a catastrophe, and nations and peoples will have a version of Afghanistan. Nuclear power, especially after the Japanese tragedy, is unlikely to be a powerful development. And the proven reserves of uranium-235, on which nuclear power plants operate, are too small on the planet to talk about the broad prospects of nuclear power, and uranium, 238, is not developed for these purposes. Variations on the theme of "new types of energy sources" so far only beautiful fairy tales. In fact, the Arabs keep in their pockets the keys to the economy of the 21st century, but they cannot realize this potential: they do not have their own Arab project, and the ruling elites do not serve public interests; In addition, there is no bright political leader in the region either in the image of a statesman or in the person of the state. Opponents of the Arabs - the United States and the Financial International - have such. So, the Arab world is a very attractive “object” for the global financial elite, which builds and implements (so far successfully) global projects of global financial domination. In these projects, the concept is read: who controls the global reserves of oil and gas controls the world. To implement the projects, the financial oligarchy has at its disposal a state under the name of the USA, NATO, 14 thousand banks, 16 world financial centers, a network of world media and special structures, a person’s archetype, whose meaning is money and power. For calculations with these executors of global projects, the customer has his own machine that prints money, and it is absolutely false, because the owners of the printing press (US Federal Reserve) are not responsible for their products. However, those to whom global counterfeiters sell products in the form of a dollar (primarily the US government, Middle Eastern regimes) respond with real assets, their complete subordination and policy in the interests of their financial “sponsor”. Therefore, whatever Mr. Obama promises to his voters, he will do what the Fed and K. will order him. The political regimes of the Arab countries have been brought into this system as an object donor. The Arab world sells its hydrocarbons to foreign countries for dollars, and then invests the same dollars in the Western (American) economy.
On the other hand, the Arab East does not fit into the world of the twenty-first century, the century of world ethnocultural civilizations. However, it is they, and not the states, who challenge the (yet weak) transnational community, the power of "money bags". The Arab core of the Islamic world is strategically behind all other civilizations in its development. Rather, it does not even develop, but degrades. As, by the way, and Russia. Over the past two decades, most Arab countries have seriously lagged not only from Western countries, but also from Eastern ones. Firstly, in the Islamic world, tendencies to unite into a geopolitical ethno-cultural formation (Islamic civilization) and socio-political formation (caliphate) are not readable. Secondly, the long stay in power of certain clans, whether in the form of elected presidents or inherited monarchs, preserves all significant social niches with its people and deprives the majority of the population of the prospects for social growth and development. Third, the ruling clans, charged with power and material over-enrichment, are not interested in financing the development of education, culture, science, production, focusing only on maintaining a minimum social basket and police regime to suppress dissent (the Russian power oligarchy seems to copy the Middle Eastern version ). Fourth, the ruling stratum, with the goal of securing personal wealth and hiding it from the people, takes them out of the country to the West, as a result, through the special services of Western countries, it comes under the control of the same financial oligarchy and is forced to play by its rules, as part of its projects. Again, just like in Russia.
Due to the above reasons, the Arab country’s 21 GDP barely exceeds Spain’s GDP, domestic investments from oil and gas range from 10 to 15 billion dollars annually, the annual outflow of capital from the Arab League countries is ten times larger. The number of scientists, based on 1mln. people. In the Arab world in 3 times lower than in the countries of the West and East. 40% of young people aged 12 - 17 do not attend school. The youth unemployment rate is the same as in our North Caucasus. The conclusion is clear: the Arab East should have exploded in search of its future.
In conclusion, it can be argued: the origins of what is happening in North Africa lie in the political situation in the Arab world. Another thing is who contributed to the freezing of the development of Arabian. After the collapse of the USSR and the destruction of Iraq, almost all regimes (except Syria and Libya) became pro-Western, most of them being US allies. Their dead-end path of development was supported and encouraged by the Western community. To say that Western intelligence services have missed the revolutionary situation in the Middle East, the language does not turn. It is only in modern Russia that the intelligence structures are destroyed “as unnecessary”. In the USA, Great Britain, China, and in all countries of the world, intelligence is increasing, developing every year. Western intelligence agencies, reinforced prognostic research centers (only in the US, such more than 10), of course, counted all the possible options. Could be wrong only in terms and details. And if they knew, it means they were preparing. I will give a couple of examples for clarity. In Washington, under the auspices of the US Vice President, a series of seminars are held annually with young "revolutionaries" from countries where America is preparing "color revolutions." Since 2008, there has been an attraction of young people from six Arab countries (altogether there were participants from 17 countries). At about the same time, the textbook of J. Sharp, the head of the institute named after M. Sharpe, began to be distributed on the Internet and in printed form in Arabic in the Middle East. A. Einstein, "From dictatorship to democracy." This brochure provides 198 recommendations for overthrowing regimes by peaceful means. When the events in Egypt began, I looked into it and, to my surprise, saw how well the opposition was acting: only one motto for everyone, as Sharpe teaches: Mubarak, go away. Of course, not everything can be foreseen. The Egyptians did not accept the American homework in the person of the Nobel Prize winner M. El Baradei. Therefore, we had to resort to the old method and transfer power to the loyal US military.
But I don’t presume to assert that everything will go according to the American scenario. Moreover, there are signs of an increase in anti-Americanism in the Arab world, both among the “revolutionaries” and in the camp of the ruling regimes, which with the example of Ben Ali (Tunisia) and H. Mubarak (Egypt) are convinced that their American allies surrender them immediately, and accounts and assets appropriated. It is not by chance that the leaders of the Arab League, who supported the sanctions against Libya, today are opposing the military aggression of the United States and NATO. The reason, of course, is not that the leaders of the Arab states suddenly suddenly read Art. 2, p. 7. Of the UN Charter, where it is clearly spelled out: "This Charter does not in any way give the UN the right to intervene in matters that are essentially within the internal competence of any state." The Arab leaders, frightened by popular protest, suddenly felt that with the first NATO “tomahawks” the overwhelming majority of Arabs became solidary with the Libyan leadership, denounced Americans and their supporters with shame, threw stones at the UN Secretary General, declared their readiness to support Libya in its struggle with the West. Pro-Western Arab leaders shook even more thrones and presidential seats. That began to work back.
About Libya special conversation. The hydrocarbon-rich country, 90% of the territory of which is desert, the population is 6, 4 million, (general) literacy, social stratification is low, exports are twice as large as imports, and there is practically no poverty or unemployment. However, the independent foreign and domestic policy of M. Gaddafi, his independence in the Arab world, the proclamation of the socialist path of development of the country, cause discontent both among the Arab conservative regimes and in the West. Especially in the United States, for which the Libyan leader after S. Hussein, was the main problem for the Americans because of his rebelliousness and political unpredictability. In addition, he did not indulge the US with oil, preferring the Europeans (the US imported only 6% Libyan oil). Such behavior of M. Gaddafi in the conditions of the revolutionary situation in North Africa, the growth of anti-American sentiment and in the event of the overthrow of the monarchical regimes in the region, could turn the Libyan leader into the leader of the revolutionary Arab masses. Therefore, it must be removed from the political arena, but eliminated, without causing a new surge of anti-Western (anti-American) sentiment in the Islamic world. The Americans, with their standardized thinking, resorted to a previously successfully tested scheme: to conduct an informational and psychological operation to demonize M. Gaddafi and his regime of power, (as previously S. Milosevic, S. Hussein), “show” compassion for the violation of “rights” man, ”and bring this“ compassion ”to the discussion of the UN Security Council, pushing through there any resolution that they, the United States, will interpret in their own way. And then, having forced the military to make serious suffering physiognomies, to destroy the country with the help of the "Tomahawks" and a number of their "allies" in NATO. I’ll dwell on the “allies”. French President N. Sarkozy is a losing politician, a politician entangled in his personal life, a country's leader who raised the retirement age, reduced benefits and wages to ordinary citizens, but threw tens of billions of euros into the banking sector to save financial oligarchs from losses and costs. His hope for re-election or avoidance of litigation is only for America and financiers.
S. Berlusconi, Prime Minister of Italy. He is under investigation for several articles, including the abuse of minors. Hope for Washington again.
Britannia. The nickname of T. Blair - J. Bush's lapdog, as a symbol of the subordination of London to Washington, migrated to the new government of Albion. Here is a group of forces and means. And M. Gaddafi has already won a political victory over her. Plus, in accordance with the UN Charter, the Libyan leadership received a legal right to individual and collective defense against the aggressor. Moreover, Libyans and volunteers from other countries can act not only on the territory of their country, but everywhere against the facilities and combatants of the countries - aggressors. And these will not be acts of terrorism, but legitimate military-sabotage actions in the interests of defense.
Regarding military prospects. Yes, the Libyan army is seriously inferior to its adversary in modern weapon systems. But the combined group of the alliance, using 110 cruise missiles in the first strike, hit only 12 targets. And, if the received information is accurate, in difficult disputes, NATO allocated only 400 missiles for the operation. Gaddafi brought his troops into direct contact with the rebels and armed his supporters from among the civilian population, which greatly complicated NATO pilots' reconnaissance and target selection. With the skillful use of anti-aircraft missile systems, the Libyan army is able to cause certain damage aviation the enemy. The first downed American F 15 seems to have run into an ambush for Libyan air defense. The alliance is unlikely to go to the ground operation, the troops of the Arab states will not go either. Firstly, it is strictly prohibited by UN Security Council Resolution No. 1973: "The UN Security Council thus excludes any kind of foreign occupation of any part of the territory of Libya." Secondly, a ground invasion will necessarily be accompanied by large losses of the invading troops. So, M. Gaddafi can very well withstand, and then he turns into the leader of the Arab national resistance. The era of decline of Western dominance in the Arab (and Islamic) world will begin (if not already begun). Arab oil will turn from west to east. With all the ensuing consequences. Of course, more than the United States, Europe will suffer from the war. Gaddafi is unlikely to supply hydrocarbons to aggressor countries. Italy, which consumes a third of Libyan oil, will receive hundreds of thousands of refugees instead. Therefore, the Europeans are already bargaining with M. Gaddafi about the conditions for his "peaceful" resignation from the post of leader of the Jamahiriya. The latter is no longer opposed if his post is inherited by his son.
A few words about the position of Russia. It is about the position in the events in question, since the Russian ruling elite has no policy. Summarizing assessment: Russia again remained in the cold. Without daring to disobey Washington, Moscow “did not finish reading” the UN Charter (the aforementioned Art. 2) and became involved in the discussion in the UN Security Council of the internal problem of the Libyan Jamahiriya. Russia, by abstaining from voting in the UN Security Council, allowed aggression against the Arab world. Moreover, against the background of the recent grand opening of the monument to Yeltsin, who not only abandoned (completely legitimate) troops to suppress the Chechen armed insurrection, but also executed the (completely criminal) parliament, the President of the Russian Federation declares M. Gaddafi, who is obliged to suppress the armed insurgency in his country, as a criminal and the Russian representative in the UN Security Council opens the floodgates for NATO aggression. A few days later, suddenly a diplomatic cry from Moscow: deceived, we didn’t mean it, once again trusted the Americans, and they ... as in the case of the FRY, Iraq, Afghanistan. In the world, such a “policy” has long been laughed at. And soon the nickname "lapdog ...." will stick to ...
The revolutionary Arab East is likely to open to Chinese socialism, but not Russia, because it is ruled from the same hated America.
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