Numerous failed "doomsday", the last of which was to occur in December 2012-th in accordance with the completion of the Mayan Indians calendar cycle, undermined the belief in numerology in humanity. However, what история evolving according to certain laws, there is a more or less recognized fact. You can customize it for a particular calendar, trying to build some theory. You can not customize, but simply assess what happened in a given year a hundred, two hundred or more years ago. And in the case of the current year, 14, get the corresponding results, at least for Europe.
1914 is the beginning of the First World War, after which there was not a single empire on the map that started it except the British. 1814 is the beginning of the end of Napoleon Bonaparte (although the battle of Waterloo is already 1815 a year). And by the way, it was this year that the English landing force took Washington by storm, burning the White House and the Capitol. 1714 - the end of the War of the Spanish Succession, as well as the Battle of Gangut - is the first naval victory of the Russians over the Swedes in history, in memory of which the day of military glory of Russia is celebrated. 1614 is the first year after the Time of Troubles, the beginning of the era of the Romanovs. And so on and so forth.
"It is time for change" happens once a century
Does all of the above directly or indirectly relate to the beginning of the current Russian-Ukrainian “jam”, under which Crimea once again “went under Moscow”? Yes, in general, no. However, the reader may note that every hundred years, at about the same time, our country and its neighbors, near and far, fall into the next “time of change”. The one that the Chinese from antiquity recommended to fear. Something ends, something begins. But as a result of these changes, the world is changing - until the next crisis.
Trying to stop or slow down the course of history is about as useful as slowing down the express train, getting on the rails in front of it. Although expressing disapproval, indignation and resolute condemnation of what is happening - in this case, the return of the Crimea to Russia - no one ordered. As well as apply any sanctions of any kind — at least to the country as a whole, at least to individual officials, politicians and businessmen in particular. Free will, saved paradise.
The problem is that the presence of the Crimea in its structure cannot unfold the process of degradation and disintegration of today's Ukraine - economic, political and any other kind. In her eyes, she is turning into a failed state, engulfed in internal turmoil, which in the shortest possible time can turn into a civil war. And what is a civil war in Ukraine is well known, at least to those who have not forgotten the lessons of modern history. In the end, a hundred years have not passed.
As Ukraine became the territory of the war of all against all at the beginning of the twentieth century, it can happen today. The Yugoslav scenario on its territory, unfortunately, is not excluded. After the disappearance of the Russian Empire, the power in Ukraine was with anyone except hetman Skoropadsky. From countless gangs and rebel armies, the most organized of which were the forces of Nestor Makhno, to the Germans and the Entente. From the Petliurists, although only an insignificant number of them subordinated precisely to Petliura, to the forces of local self-defense. From white to red. Millions were the victims.
The appearance during the Great Patriotic War in Ukraine of Bandera, Shukhevych and the local assistants of the Third Reich headed by them, dozens and hundreds of thousands joined the SS, the Wehrmacht, the police, the firing teams and the protection of concentration camps and ghettos, not too optimistic for the current events . From Moscow it is clear that direct heirs of those with whom the USSR fought in 1941 – 1945 are gaining momentum in Ukraine and are striving for power. Although in European capitals and Washington, they clearly do not intend to pay attention to this. Easy to understand why.
Let us leave outside the scope of this article the question of the causes and plans of Russia's confrontation in all possible directions - from the Middle East to Central Asia, as well as everything that is being done by the current US administration for the sake of internal weakening of our country. Pay attention to the presence in Canada, the United States, Argentina, Uruguay and other countries multi-million Ukrainian diaspora. And remember that terrorism in Northern Ireland, directed against Britain — the closest ally of the United States — has been funded by the Irish people from Boston for decades. That did not prevent the representatives of the Kennedy clan from becoming senators or ministers. And also take the post of president.
Millions of Ukrainians currently living outside their homeland sympathize with and will help the Right Sector, Freedom, UDAR and any other political parties or extremist groups in their confrontation with Russia. How they helped anyone in this struggle regardless of whether it was waged with the Russian Empire, the USSR, or the current Russian Federation. They have an impressive lobby, which is listened to in Western capitals, at least based on their electoral potential. Or, simply speaking, from the number of votes.
In the same way, they certainly sympathize and will help to put into practice the idea of the suppression by nationalists of the non-Ukrainian population and Ukrainians who are ready to coexist peacefully with Russia as a neighbor. That in the initial era of the practical implementation of Ukrainian nationalism was realized by successfully ousting and mass cutting the Jews and Poles in the framework of the local tradition established from the time of Khmelnitsky.
Not incidentally, if we talk about the EU countries, more recently to Hungary and Romania, who have long been handing out their passports to compatriots living in Ukraine, the Czech Republic, which is not prone to excessive emotions in politics, was added. As far as forces go, the remnants of the local Poles move to Poland. And in Israel, without much ado, they are preparing for the mass exodus of the Jewish population of Ukraine, which is inevitable if the situation aggravates there. Fortunately, the Jewish Agency has the relevant experience gained in the course of civil wars and riots in Georgia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
We note this, since the Brussels policy towards the current Kiev authorities is in line with the strategy of Washington, but is directly opposite to the tacit actions of the leadership of European countries that are Ukraine’s neighbors. And this justifies any actions that Russia deems it necessary to take in relation to the neighboring country, taking into account the current situation there. Since the Russian authorities will have to defend not theoretical international law in the interpretation of their former partners in G8, but their own vital interests for its continued existence.
However, Arseny Yatsenyuk’s proposal to replace the Russian Federation in the G8 with Ukraine, expressed during his talks with the Canadian Prime Minister, greatly facilitates Moscow’s future separation from this structure, which recently claimed the role of “world government”. The Western Club in real life cannot solve any world problems without Russia regardless of what it claims or is ready to lay claim to. But to solve them, having in its composition a ruined, corrupt, crumbling Ukraine, is not even funny.
Optimists who believe that an unhappy Ukraine only thanks to the healing power of democracy will suddenly turn from what it is now, if not prosperous, then at least not as fast as today, a collapsing state, overestimate the merits of this song sung by politicians and political scientists building. As is known, Poland, which included a huge part of modern Ukraine, is its unique democracy on the European background and has finished it. And not so long ago.
Infinite Polish Seimas, whose long and difficultly coordinated decisions completely killed personal ambitions, realized in the form of gentry "not allowing", do not lead to anything except its section, more precisely, three sections, the results of which Poland’s statehood disappeared for more than a century could And they didn’t, because the central power in this country was weak, the warring moguls were strong, and the local poplists, populists, were numerous and self-interested. This strongly resembles everything that we have today in Ukraine, with amendments to political technologies, a gas pipe and a modern external environment.
In the Soviet period, the topic of participation in the war on the side of fascist Germany by Ukrainians and other representatives of the "fraternal Soviet peoples", as well as the countries of occupied Europe, was practically taboo, since it impeded the development of proletarian internationalism in the USSR. Until recently, this attitude was towards the participation of volunteers from Ukraine in the terrorist war in the Russian North Caucasus and the “August war” unleashed by Saakashvili in South Ossetia. Moreover, this participation went with the direct support (or with demonstrative disregard) of successive Ukrainian governments.
The same applies to the role of the Ukrainian authorities (and related security groups headed by the heads of relevant departments) in organizing the supply of Ukrainian weapons to the international black market for weapons and military equipment (IWT), and to turning a number of regions, including Crimea, into a zone the constant presence of militants participating in the Islamist jihad on the territory of the republics of the former USSR and beyond. Among the Crimean Tatars, among the younger generation of which the positions of the Ukrainian Hizb ut-Tahrir (whose sites, including Russian-speaking, are on the Internet), are strong, this was largely controlled by the Turkish MIT (Milli Istihbarat Teskilati - National Intelligence Organization, Turkish special service ).
As a result, during the development of the current crisis, Russia may encounter several scenarios. The most unlikely: Ukraine creates a capable government of people who are not corrupt and professional, which suppresses extremists, builds relations with the Russian Federation and builds them with Europe not at the expense of Moscow. After that, he rebuilds Ukraine as a country, strengthening state institutions and the economy, and does not engage in the redistribution of property and wholesale theft, like all Ukrainian governments before.
This scenario has a chance of implementation only with the joint coordinated work of the West, Russia and the Ukrainian authorities based on the proposals of the Russian Foreign Ministry, including the transformation of Ukraine into a federation with a high degree of freedom of territories like Germany or the USA. Is there any chance for this option? Not. Since it is clear that there is a new cold war ahead, and also, according to a number of competent experts, the First World Economic War, to the top of which the American and European leadership clearly seeks, naively believing that it will inflict damage on Russia alone. Well, no one wanted the First World War. They would know how it will end ...
It is much more likely that the chaos described above will arise in Ukraine. Its consequence will inevitably be a heightened danger regime at Ukrainian NPPs, the emergence of a large number of modern IWT systems in the “free market” and the influx of a significant number of refugees from Ukraine to Russia. This will raise the question of Russian control over the situation in at least in the south-east of Ukraine, up to Transnistria. The reaction of the Western community, the UN and other third-party players to such a development will be indicative and demonstrative, but the military conflict with NATO is not seen in any way.
It is even more likely that one or other radicals will come to power in Kiev. Whether it will be at the head of them that the Tighnibok, Yarosh, or someone unknown today, is no longer important. But the lack of an adequate response to their actions, the result of which may be the repetition of the fate of Bandera and his supporters by neo-Nazis, means the transformation of Ukraine into the fourth Reich with some local Führer at the head. In this case, the transformation of the former brotherly republic into the mortal enemy of Russia, bordering on it and having at the same time sufficient economic potential in the part of heavy industry and the military-industrial complex, is a matter of technology.
Judging by the results of the propaganda anti-Russian hysteria of the Ukrainian media, the zombies of the Ukrainian population will take no more time than the Germans in the Third Reich. Taking into account television and the Internet - rather less. And then the imminent war looms after some time, but without any alternative, since people rushing to power in Ukraine will simply have to fulfill their campaign promises — both with regard to the return of the Crimea, and in relation to Russia. Hoping that at the head of a country they suddenly turn into moderate realists is as clever as relying on agreements with Hitler. However, France and the United Kingdom did it in their time in Munich.
A truly critical scenario is the entry of Ukraine and, possibly, Georgia, with which it was promised quite a long time ago, to NATO with the deployment on their territory of all that military infrastructure of the North Atlantic Alliance, which could be created there with such a development. Such an option for Moscow is a threat of the same order as the appearance of Soviet missiles in Cuba during the time of the Caribbean crisis for the United States. There are no real reasons for this, apart from the desire to “put Russia in its place”. However, depending on how the internal political situation in NATO countries, primarily in the United States, develops, a crisis scenario of this kind is possible, since foreign policy in the modern world is to a great extent a reflection of domestic policy.
The problem is that with regard to Russia in the West there are so many phobias, and from very old times, that no arguments of domestic diplomats, reasonable compromises that make Ukraine’s position, compromise projects, and other steps towards the “world community” are perceived in Western capitals and they will not be controlled by international organizations. This does not mean that the work is in vain. In the end, diplomats have their own work, politicians have their own, and the military and intelligence have their own. But to observe what Ukraine is turning into, knowing that the next candidate for organizing Maidan is Moscow, it would be strange for Russia without a corresponding reaction.
Ideological war has not been canceled
It is pointless to discuss the legality or inappropriateness of Russia's actions with regard to Ukraine. Compared to the operations of NATO and the Western coalitions in Yugoslavia, in the Middle East, all that can be expected from the national leadership is the behavior of the diligent student, who follows the example of the Gopnik group, which many senior military of the Western bloc recognize in private conversations. Although in the world media it is Russia that is the aggressor and the aggressor, it will remain regardless of the real situation in Ukraine.
You should not pay attention to the foreign press: no one has canceled the ideological and information war. It is necessary to resist hostile propaganda, although the ability to do this at the level that the situation requires is not available in the current national broadcasting system, despite the assurances of its leadership. But it is necessary to understand what is behind the hysteria of the Western political establishment in relation to Russia, manifested primarily in the statements of the British and American political leadership. For Ukraine itself, it has a very remote relationship.
The problems that have caused such an inadequate reaction of the Western community in relation to the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, which the USA and the EU themselves have provoked, lie in the gradual weakening of the Western world. Including the United States, which is no longer the undisputed world arbiter. Separatism in Europe itself can lead to a reformatting of the EU. The example of the Crimean referendum inspires supporters of the independence of Veneto, Scotland, Catalonia, the Basque Country and Flanders.
In addition, the political and military failures of NATO in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Egypt, Syria and other countries of the "Arab Spring" are obvious. Neither the Middle Eastern leaders, nor terrorist groups, nor tribal unions of Africa and the Near and Middle East are any more subject to successful manipulation. Russia here, unlike the USSR, plays an important but exclusively political role, acting in the UN Security Council in an alliance with China. However, the unipolar world that emerged after 1991 is clearly failing, which, in particular, demonstrates the course of the civil war in Syria.
In addition, the West can not solve the problem of illegal emigration to the EU and the United States. Israel’s resistance to attempts to impose on it voluntaristic decisions dangerous for its existence, lobbied by the Gulf monarchies, is growing. The policy of sanctions against Iran failed. The realization that Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar are more likely opponents of the West than allies does not strengthen the position of Washington and Brussels. And the fact that the relationship between the floodplains no longer depends on the position of the United States, but solely on their internal conflicts, as the recall of the ambassadors of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates from Qatar has shown, undermines trust in the ability of the European Commissioner for International Affairs affairs and security control the situation in the world.
A unique feature of modern Russia, which inherited nuclear and space technologies from the USSR, is the impossibility of destroying it within the framework of military confrontation without corresponding consequences. Our country can so far destroy any adversary, including the United States. It was the fear of its military power that lay at the heart of the Cold War and seems to be becoming relevant again. The very fact that the Russian Federation has taken a position opposite to the western one in the conditions of the Ukrainian crisis is not so dangerous for the positioning of the USA and the EU as leaders of the modern world. Traditionally, in the previous two decades, Russia's special position in the UN was simply ignored. A dangerous example.
The fact that the Russian Federation was able to carry out actions aimed at protecting national interests, and in response failed and, it is possible, will not be able to oppose anything other than information noise and strange looking sanctions against individual people, shocked Russia's western partners. Obviously, the logic of their actions in Ukraine was not based on a deliberate strategy, but on emotions. And this is much more dangerous and requires increased attention to the situation.