Russian expanse: from Ukraine to Finland
Federal Republic of Ukraine
A trial ball of Russian expansion is seen by some experts in the 2008 events of the year. Two months ago, giving an interview to Ukrainian Public TV, economist Andrei Illarionov, a former adviser to President Putin, said that the Kremlin was preparing to dismember Ukraine, following the example of how Abkhazia and South Ossetia were separated from Georgia. This was written by Mikhail Ryabov ("New Region").
According to Illarionov, the Kremlin considers four scenarios. The first is complete control over the whole of Ukraine with the help of a person who will enjoy the confidence of the whole country. True, "this option becomes unlikely."
“The main option, which focuses most of the forces, is the federalization or confederalization of Ukraine. People who are in one way or another connected with the Kremlin constantly call this option ... The goal is to establish control over the eastern and southern part of Ukraine, ”the ex-adviser said.
“The third option is that if it is not possible to establish control over the entire Southeast, then establish over the most important areas. The first candidates are Odessa, Nikolaev, Lugansk, Donetsk, Kharkiv regions, the Crimea, ”said Illarionov in an interview.
According to the fourth variant of Russia, only Crimea departs. But this episode is already in the past (Illarionov was interviewed in early February).
Illarionov also said: “The situation is very similar to what happened in the summer of 2008, when the Russian leadership decided that it was only that year that Abkhazia and South Ossetia could be rejected from Georgia. Then the secret report said that the window of opportunity is nothing more than the end of 2008 of the year. It was the time of the Beijing Olympics. Obviously, some similar document on Ukraine already exists, and it is quoted by various speakers in the Russian media. ”
Illarionov also recalled that in 2008 “at the NATO summit in Bucharest, Vladimir Putin said that Ukraine - historical misunderstanding, a state created on Russian lands. "
The former adviser to the Russian president did not stop with these statements.
My native country is wide
The other day in the British newspaper «The Independent» Adam Whitnell’s post came out. The correspondent quoted the words of Illarionov, concerning certain Kremlin plans to conquer a fair piece of Europe.
According to Andrei Illarionov, Mr. Putin seeks to restore "historical justice" by returning the borders of Nicholas II and Stalin to Russia. The former adviser gave an interview to the Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet, where he warned that Russia would insist that the granting of Finnish independence in 1917 was an act of "betraying national interests."
According to Illarionov, Putin believes that he "protects what belongs to him and belonged to his predecessors," namely, parts of Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic countries and Finland.
The author of the note recalls that earlier Mr. Illarionov participated in the development of Russia's economic policy and worked as Putin’s personal representative at a number of G-8 conferences. Now this economist is a senior fellow at the Center for Global Freedom and Prosperity of the Cato Institute in Washington.
The British journalist further notes that Finland is not a member of NATO, that is, Russia's invasion will not be considered as an attack on the alliance. When asked whether Mr. Putin poses a direct threat to the Finns right now, Illarionov said: “This is not on Putin’s agenda today or tomorrow ... However, if Putin is not stopped, this question will be raised - sooner or later. Putin said several times that the Bolsheviks and the Communists made big mistakes. He may well say that the Bolsheviks in 1917 had betrayed Russian national interests, giving Finland independence. ”
Sanctions, according to Illarionov, did not prevent Putin, but helped. They only approved Putin’s “world view”.
“We must resist by all available means,” the journalist Illarionova quotes. “I am not a bloodthirsty person, but sometimes there is no other way than military power to stop an opponent. The only answer to blatant aggression is to show readiness for collective defense. ”
We will probably add on our own, here Illarionov is referring to Finland’s possible admission to NATO, which is also widely spoken about today, and the “answer” from NATO (readiness, after all, to “collective defense”). Alliance Secretary General Rasmussen has recently reported that the issue of NATO candidates will be considered this year in the summer. Also recently, the media published a statement by the Prime Minister of Finland, Jyrka Katainen, who сказал in an interview with the Berlin newspaper Der Tagesspiegel that his country is not a neutral party to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. This statement was a kind of "third party" response to the proposal of the former US Secretary of State G. Kissinger, addressed to Ukraine. Mr. Kissinger suggested that Kiev adhere to the “Finlandization” policy, i.e., maintain neutrality. The Finnish Prime Minister noted that he deeply respects Kissinger, but does not agree with all his provisions. I do not agree because the former US Secretary of State sees Finland as a country during the Cold War. Jyrki Katainen reminded GK that Finland has been a member of the EU for almost two decades. He added: "We no longer take a neutral position, although we do not join any military alliance." And then Mr. Katainen told the German newspaper that Finland is constantly considering the possibility of joining NATO. The decision to join the alliance does not depend on the country's desire to maintain good relations with Russia.
"Putin must go"
To this it must be added that Illarionov, who is now prompting the West, has long disagreed with the man who in the 2000-2005 years gave advice on economic policy, that is, with Putin. According to modern concepts, rooted in the political lexicon, Illarionov from the end of 2005, should be attributed to the so-called opposition.
Resigned December 27 2005 Advisor submitted with the words: “I don’t work with such a state that we have today and I won’t work ... When I took this position, it was one state, there were opportunities and hopes for its evolution ... a deep rebirth of the state itself took place, an economic model was formed state corporatism ".
In 2006, Illarionov criticized the first public sale of stocks (Initial Public Offering, IPO) to Rosneft. In his opinion, the sale of these shares is detrimental to the interests of the Russian state and citizens, because the money from the sale of the former state property does not fall into the hands of the state: Now the state budget of the Russian Federation did not receive anything in 1995, it will receive nothing as a result of Rosneft’s IPO. In my opinion, in the language of the criminal code there are relevant characteristics, what is the name of this phenomenon. ”
23 number worth the signature Illarionov under the well-known appeal “Putin must leave,” posted on the Internet 10 March 2010. Among the first signatories are Elena Bonner, Alexander Krasnov, Yury Mukhin, Valery Smirnov, Zakhar Prilepin, Ilya Yashin, Lev Ponomarev, Garry Kasparov, Boris Nemtsov, Heydar Jemal and others.
Also Illarionov is known performance at a hearing in the US Congress on February 25, 2009, where he said: “The recent proposal [of US Vice President Joseph Biden in Munich] to“ reset ”US-Russian relations and“ start from scratch ”is received with ill-concealed joy and satisfaction Russian security officers. For them, this means achieving many of the goals they dreamed of. <…> This type of behavior on the part of the American administration cannot even be called a retreat. It is not even the policy of appeasement, which is so well known to all of us from another decision - in Munich in 1938. This is a complete and unconditional surrender to the regime of secret police officers, security officers and mafioso bandits. This is a complete surrender of all the hopes and efforts of Russian democrats, as well as of the peoples of the post-Soviet states, who dreamed of freeing themselves from the system that controlled and tormented them for almost a century ... "
While Illarionov patiently explains to the West with whom he contacted, American analysts are thinking about the next “front” of Putin - that is, about the one that will be opened after the Crimea.
Who's in the queue?
28 March 2014 of the year The Wall Street Journal An unsigned article appeared in the “Opinion” column, the main premise of which is simple: the next in line for Russia is Moldova.
We are talking about Transnistria. The magazine states that almost 50.000 of the Russian military camouflage equipment to the east of the border with Ukraine, receive additional power and spare parts. According to the publication, the Russians behave as if “they are preparing for an invasion”.
Meanwhile, 25000 Russian military in the Crimea, which include the elite special forces, create the Southern military beachhead. As for Transnistria, the “rebellious region of Moldova,” then, according to Ukrainian officials, about 800 Russian “commandos” (special forces) arrived in addition.
In general, Russia has already amassed 100.000 soldiers at the borders of Ukraine, said Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Andrei Paruby at a conference call on Thursday organized by the Atlantic Council.
What does V. Putin want? It turns out that this is his “big prize”: the densely populated eastern industrial center of Ukraine. Moreover, the accumulation of Russian troops is not necessarily a prelude to the invasion, the author notes. Cackling weapons - already a way to undermine the new transitional government of Ukraine.
“Mr. Putin may also be thinking about another front in the south and southwest. Transnistria is a kind of enclave where half a million ethnic Russians live ... ”Russian“ peacemakers ”(quotes from the author’s notes; in original: Russian“ peacekeepers ”) arrived there after a short war with Moldova in 1992, and so there remained. As in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Transnistria is in a state of so-called “frozen conflict”, which gives Moscow an “ideal pressure point” on a small and poor state that was formerly Soviet.
However, Moldova, according to the journalist, does not want the Eurasian Union and is committed to political and economic cooperation with the EU. Last year, Mr. Putin blocked imports of Moldovan wine. This was done in order by the author to put pressure on and force Moldova not to sign an association agreement with the EU. Now Moldovans are afraid that their country will be subjected to a "territorial carriage a la Ukraine".
Gagauzia is another troubled enclave of Moldova. Two months ago, on February 2, its pro-Russian-minded residents held their own “Crimean-style” independence referendum. They want independence if Moldova strives for EU membership.
Russia, according to the author of the note, can use force to split both regions from Moldova.
Meanwhile, Ukrainians are concerned about another “scenario.” The capital of Transnistria is Tiraspol - not far from Odessa and just 3 hundreds of miles from the Crimea. The southern regions of Ukraine on the Black Sea coast are “full of Russian speakers,” writes an American.
After the "conquest" of the Crimea, he continues, Putin can go ahead and connect the Crimea and Transnistria. He has the strength on the peninsula to do this.
And what about America? Alas. Mr. Obama, the author complains, did not propose new sanctions against Russia. He has no plans to strengthen NATO. And he does not supply weapons to the Ukrainians or Moldovans.
And if Mr. Putin really plans to continue his conquests, he will have nothing to oppose.
Usually Americans compose similar notes on the left knee instead of morning gymnastics. Well, why should Putin, who, as Western “analysts” declare, “annexed the Crimea”, go to war against Moldova and win something there? What is bad version of the referendum - exactly the same as in the Crimea? But it is bad for western journalists because, for example, the Crimean plebiscite is very difficult to declare “illegitimate”, when almost one hundred percent of the voters are in favor. So you have to write about a hundred thousand Russian military men who intended to be under a tutelage under the personal guidance of Putin (with a naked torso, it must be assumed, and riding a bear) to conquer half of Europe.
Here is what the other day told the newspaper "Sight" President of Transnistria Yevgeny Shevchuk: “Transnistria is in permanent blockades almost the entire time of its existence. However, the blockade significantly increased in 2006, when the export of Transnistrian goods, the banking system, the ability to carry out freight and passenger transportation by its transport companies was actually blocked. Was blocked river, air transport. Today, the situation has been aggravated by the fact that restrictive measures already apply to the freedom of movement of citizens. ” He further noted: “Today it is obvious that Moldova is going to delegate to the European Union considerable powers in the field of economy. Ukraine is moving in the same direction dynamically. Moldova is expanding military cooperation with Romania, while not having an interstate treaty on borders with it. In our opinion, Moldova actually delegates its military powers through Romania to the relevant bloc of states. I believe that it is impossible to arrange a reservation in the center of Europe due to the fact that Transnistrians have their own preferences and beliefs. The will of the people, the opinion of citizens living here must be respected. I believe that for Moldova and Transdniestria one of the best settlement options is the formula of civilized “divorce”, which I have repeatedly voiced. Such examples are: the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The situation when, through restrictions, including the suppression of the economic potential of Transnistria, they are trying to create conditions for obtaining additional political concessions, is illogical. ”
Vzglyad also recalls that Vyacheslav Tobukh, deputy of the Supreme Council of Transnistria, Head of the Recognition movement, 18 March, sent Vladimir Putin a request to recognize Transdniestria as an independent state and then incorporate it into the Russian Federation. Comrade Tobukh made the following comment to the publication: “The need for recognition of Transnistria today is obvious, and I would even say, beneficial to absolutely all supporters of peaceful coexistence. For Transnistria it is a vital necessity. For the European community, this is an exception to the conflict in the immediate vicinity of the European Union. For the Republic of Moldova, this is an opportunity to build normal, good-neighborly relations with Transnistria. Today, against the background of the Ukrainian events, the Transnistrian public expresses its concern that the indefinite international status of Transnistria may have a negative impact on its further development, including the personal security of every Transnistrian. ”
In the hat with earflaps
Thus, the “Crimean crisis” became a kind of catalyst for a sluggish current reaction: henceforth the Kosovo precedent, which, however, the two-faced West disowned, is the solution of all those territorial disputes that have been fought since the collapse of the great Soviet empire and which the deceitful West would like to solve in their favor.
At the same time, the EU and the United States in recent weeks have perfectly demonstrated their disunity and weakness. Poles, Hungarians, Czechs and Slovaks humbly ask the Americans for shale gas, and Obama realized that the Crimea had gone to Moscow and that Russian sanctions could not be fixed. The weakness of the West is expressed in its poverty: now, NATO has empty pockets. And of course, the alliance will not go to war for the Finns.
What we have in the dry residue? No, Russia will not organize an “invasion” in Transnistria, bomb Helsinki, occupy peaceful Vilnius, trample Riga and Tallinn with kirzacs and threaten a nuclear attack on the “Batko” in Minsk. Americans and Europeans frightened themselves with their own ridiculous propaganda. And then there's the oppositionist Illarionov, who frightens the West with an invasion of Russians and almost a blitzkrieg to seize territory from Ukraine to Finland! .. Not surprisingly, someone from the Wall Street Journal is confident that Russian “peacekeepers” are about to annex Transnistria and Gagauzia did not sign its article. After all, soon the Bolsheviks, KGB agents and Putin in a hat with earflaps with a star are landing on Wall Street! This red company can lather up the neck of hostile writers!
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