“Even the economic union of Russia and Ukraine is a danger to Europe”
Between Russia and the European Union there is competition for Ukraine. The proposals of Russia are simple: this is the Customs Union and the project of the Common Economic Space, which was formulated a long time ago, but in the days of Kuchma it was inhibited, and in the times of Yushchenko they completely refused to consider it. This project provided a number of preferences for Ukraine. In one version of the project, Kiev could even become the financial capital of the Common Economic Space. But then everything remained on paper, and what will happen now - we'll see.Many production chains were destroyed for political reasons.
In general, in my opinion, the Ukraine Customs Union and the Common Economic Space would be useful. Why? Because in the 91 year, with the collapse of the USSR, many production chains were destroyed for political reasons, and not at all because of market unprofitability. This caused serious damage to both the Russian and Ukrainian economies. In Soviet times, these economies were very seriously and tightly integrated. Moreover, it was here, at the junction of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, that the main technological link of the Soviet economy was located. Here was all the high-tech production. And now a significant part of the space equipment for Russian space is produced in Ukraine. And even then the corresponding chains were extremely effective. This applies to the aviation industry, and instrument making, and mechanical engineering, and so on. And these are exactly the sectors that suffered the most in Ukraine and in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, after the 90 crisis.
Trying to reintegrate the chains, create new technological centers, restore the high-tech core could be just within the framework of the Common Economic Space and the Customs Union. This would give a chance not for a future of raw materials, but a chance for the development of the very innovations and the very high-tech industries, about which they say that their development is one of the parts of modernization. In cooperation with Ukraine, it would be easier to make it to Russia.
No high-tech, technological products with a Ukrainian stamp are needed in the European Union
Now Ukraine’s exports are mostly semi-finished products, raw materials, food. In the European Union, no high-tech, technological products with a Ukrainian stamp are needed, and Europe is not going to develop it. This is very well illustrated by the example of the Baltic States, where almost all the production of this kind was closed. In my opinion, for the domestic market, many Baltic enterprises produced quite competitive products. Yes, maybe in the world markets it was not competitive, but besides that there is also a domestic market.
It is the domestic market - this is one of the most serious losses that befell us with the advent of 90-s and the collapse of the Soviet Union. That is what we could sell on the domestic market, we intentionally or unintentionally brought down. As a result, they gave their domestic market to foreign manufacturers. They gave them the money, gave them these jobs, gave them these prospects for development. Of course, much is lost forever, but something can be recovered and something can be pushed off. With Europe, Ukraine has no such prospects.
Yes, maybe, in cooperation with Europe, Ukraine will manage to sell some semi-finished products a little bit better. I mean steel and chemical products, and even that is a big question.
The Europeans are already accustomed to the idea that Ukraine is the territory in which they have influence, that it is a territory that adheres to the Eurovector. They simply understand that cooperation between Russia and Ukraine is a strategically important thing for the Eastern space as a whole. Even the economic union of Russia and Ukraine presents a danger to Europe as a chance for the revival of a certain competitor. Such competitors are not needed by definition. To prevent possible convergence, cooperation - this is their goal. To do this, reanimated negotiations on the free trade zone and so on. The fight goes on, it will continue. Let's see what happens.
As for discounts on Russian gas, I believe that in the case of Ukraine joining the Customs Union and approval of the SES project such discounts would be rational.
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