What fate was prepared for Central Asia by the USA? What methods are they trying to remove from the game Russia and China?

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What does this mean for ordinary Kyrgyz, Tajik and Uzbeks? Rosbalt was told about this by the coordinator of the regional programs of the Center for the Study of Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Ural-Volga Region of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexander Knyazev.



- The question is rather rhetorical, but still ... What explains the excessive activity of the United States in Kyrgyzstan? How does their behavior correlate with the common opinion that where America is there is chaos? Why does this small country have such an “honor”? And what do we get in the end?

- Kyrgyzstan, in principle, is not an end in itself. In American analytical and political circles, the “Greater Middle East” project has existed for quite a few years already, within which there is also the so-called “Greater Central Asia Project”.

All these projects and scenarios imply the redrawing of huge regions on the world map. The Kyrgyz part of the Fergana Valley in these scenarios is destined for the fate of Kosovo: it will be an enclave in which the crime, drugs and structures of terrorism will be concentrated. Through these "strings" you can, if necessary, influence the countries of the region. In Europe, this function is carried out by Kosovo - here you and the European drug trafficking center under the roof of the American airbase Bondsteel, here and human trafficking and human organs, smuggling weapons, the whole spectrum of the criminal market ...

By the way, a similar fate was prepared for Libya, more precisely, its eastern part, where the so-called "revolutionaries" supported by the West are now based.

- Not so long ago at one of the international conferences, you said that virtually any conflict in Kyrgyzstan threatens to become international ... But last year’s experience, I mean the events in the south, was fortunately different.

“It’s good that last year we managed to localize the southern events, thanks in large part to the correct, in principle, Karimov’s policy. I think Tashkent well understands that any escalation of any conflict in the Fergana Valley has been, is and will be directed primarily against Uzbekistan.

It must be remembered that, historically, the IMU is the former opposition of Islam Karimov. And this tool is directed against him, against the political regime in Uzbekistan, directly or gradually. Islam Karimov is pursuing a “right” policy - pressure by the IMU, its activity in the region decreases, does “wrong” - on the contrary, the activity of the ид idushnikov ’increases.

This does not negate their transnational activity, of course ... Many of the leaders of the IMU "practiced" in Chechnya, since last spring a powerful recruitment has appeared in their ranks, consisting of people from the Caucasus and Xinjiang - Chechens, Dagestanis, Uighurs ... A universal tool.

- Which, moreover, is deployed at the side, and surely uses the shaky situation in our and our neighbors? The same Tajikistan, from the side of which we have been waiting for threats all last year, and in this too ...

- Tajikistan, in this case, is important and convenient, in part, as a transit territory. This is essentially a conflict territory since the 1990 civil war, which was confirmed by last year’s events in the Rasht Valley. From the Afghan Darvaz on the Tajik border and to the nearest Kyrgyz point about five thousand kilometers along the road. And the road was repeatedly passed by both terrorists and drug traffickers. Dushanbe, in principle, never controlled this territory - Tavildara, Garm, Jirgetal, the so-called “Karategin zone”. There, at one time, the Soviet government established itself only in the 1950-s.

In addition to Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, in any case - de jure and de facto - Russia and Kazakhstan will not be able to stand aside as the CSTO member countries. And in the event of a conflict, Russia and Kazakhstan, in one way or another, will intervene (be it political pressure or something else, up to the introduction of troops).

- Could the recent Libyan events have any impact on Central Asia?

- Probably, both in Astana and Tashkent have learned from the same Libyan events. Nazarbayev secured early elections, which showed almost the complete absence of any serious opposition. In Uzbekistan, the corresponding state structures were probably strengthened.

But attempts to play multi-vector, relying on the loyalty of Americans, especially for countries where there are no resources, are already unrealistic: the time for such games is over. Friendship games with America are fraught with: an example of the same Mubarak is very eloquent, but he was such a great friend to the Americans.

The US is now important rotation in itself. This means that loyal regimes that have spent 20 years and are losing power should have been replaced by others. Where are the guarantees that they will not do this in relation to, for example, Nazarbayev?

- But after all attempt of its displacement can end with chaos

- And the task of the United States in our region is to establish controlled chaos. On the territory of Kyrgyzstan, a sluggish conflict will fester, sometimes hidden, sporadically - becoming open ... It is not difficult to manage it - for example, giving money, weapons - or vice versa, not giving - there are plenty of ways to regulate the activity of all these provocateurs, terrorists and so on.

- What is the purpose of chaos control?


- Today, a lot of things in modern politics are determined by energy resources. Conflict - one of the ways to manage their flows. If the region is in a state of conflict, the likelihood of both extraction and, especially, export of energy resources is sharply reduced: well, who will invest in a pipeline that passes through a belligerent country?

“Very many countries intend to build pipelines in Central Asia. Almost all world players have their pipeline projects here.

- Now there is a trend towards the supply of hydrocarbons from the Central Asian region to China. And one of the tasks pursued by the “controlled chaos” scenario is the conservation of regional oil and gas reserves and the prevention of their supply to competitors, and their non-admission to the Chinese market.

Another challenge is to exert indirect pressure on countries that are competitors. After all, if a conflict happens, Russia and Kazakhstan will have to spend on security not just big, but huge resources. Even if they do not get involved in the conflict directly. For example, after March 2005, China has significantly increased its infrastructure costs associated with the security of its borders with Kyrgyzstan. Security is a very expensive pleasure, and if you consider that the Russian-Kazakh border is one of the longest in the world? Yes, to fully equip it - not one Gazprom can sustain such expenses ...

In addition, provoking and maintaining conflicts neutralizes unwanted integration projects. For example, only the beginner of the Customs Union collapses. Well, and how all this will be reflected on Kyrgyzstan - I think, and without any special explanation it is understandable.
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  1. His
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    April 17 2011 18: 58
    Professor Knyazev is a real specialist in Central Asia, why not offer him a job in Russia, such consultants are needed. We do not know now what is going on nearby. We need to think more about Central Asia and not about the Middle East. Otherwise the Americans will arrange their "middle east" for us

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