The economic situation in Ukraine resembles a lull before the storm: the sky is overcast with black clouds, there are distant peals of thunder, but the wind of full-scale economic upheavals does not yet exist. However, its appearance is a matter of the coming weeks. In a few months it will come into force, then the most interesting thing will begin in Ukraine.
Promises you will not be full
Today, the Kiev “interim government” has not received the money promised by the international community, they simply are not in the required amounts. In addition, it is not clear:
- To whom to give them?
- Who will then return them?
Therefore, all those who could give money to a rapidly impoverished country took a wait. For example, the United States continues to feed. the authorities in Kiev promise, persistently pursuing their goal - self-sustaining chaos and the inevitable export of instability to the countries of the Customs Union.
Even the indistinct saber of the Ukrainian army weapons requires serious cash infusions and has already become the reason for the reduction of a number of budget programs for 6,8 billion hryvnia. It also requires a mobilization of money and a program to convert the Maidan self-defense forces and other passionaries into the National Guard (or their stripping). And this is not to mention the maintenance of basic payments in the social sector and wages. And with their payments coming trouble.
According to the Acting Minister of Economy, Ukraine is waiting for a fairly tough budget sequestration: from 60 to 100 billion hryvnia. And this is so far without even accepting the IMF’s requirements for raising gas tariffs, which, by the way, may not be at all since April.
Kiev elementary nothing to pay. Gas debts were planned to pay off money from the IMF, but they are not. There is also no hope for gas imports from the EU on the reverse basis. Own gas production will fall by at least 10% (about 2 billion cubic meters) - this is exactly how Chernomorneftegaz provided. The gas storages are empty, although now, in the last days of March, Ukraine frantically tries to fill them, increasing selection from gas pipelines. In such a situation, the planned transfer of Kiev to the prepaid mode will be a blow to the gut, after which the republic risks not to stand up anymore.
Impoverishment and starvation riots
The Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers has already “delighted” state employees: they will soon be transferred to a bare salary, removing all bonuses and allowances, which will lead to their loss from 30 to 50% of wages. The hryvnia lurking so far inevitably rushes down, which will lead to a significant increase in the cost of imports, and the average official’s salary will drop to hundreds of US dollars.
The process of dying off of the sectors of the Ukrainian economy has already begun: first of all, the crisis has covered the hotel and tourist business, followed by a wave of bars and restaurants, clothing stores, banks. At the very least, a fight will break out between grocery stores, small shops and supermarket chains. Nobody will emerge victorious from this battle: incomes will decrease for everyone, and the streets will be replenished with an army of the unemployed. And this is not to mention the reductions in the enterprises of the South-East.
We are not happy with the news from the agrarian front: the sowing campaign is in fact disrupted, because Kiev is unable to find 50 billion hryvnias for it. The prospects of large agroholdings remain unclear: they have no financial problems yet, but the Crimean ports, through which a considerable part of grain exports went, seem to have been lost due to the provisional government busy with trenching plans at Perekop. And the weather does not please: spring began without snow, therefore, winter crops were left without moisture, which will lead to a drop in yield.
In such conditions in Ukraine, by the fall, hunger marches to Kiev can be repeated. In 1993, they cost Leonid Kravchuk the presidency.
All against all
Even the most ardent adepts of Maidan are now beginning to suspect that they were simply deceived. In Kiev, a new round of fighting for power begins, and the elimination by the security forces of the famous Sasha Bilogo only added fuel to the fire: “The Right Sector” has already threatened to take revenge on the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The only way out for the new authorities will be to hold the Ukrainian equivalent of the “Night of the Long Knives” (in fact, it has already been announced) But, given the weakness and total demoralization of the security forces, the “Night” result may be unpredictable for the interim government.
Matures maidan 3.0. Here are just peaceful Kiev there will not be: it, if held, the radicals and armed fugitives from the National Guard. Yulia Tymoshenko will try to saddle this rebellion, saying that she will fight the oligarchs. Given that Yulia Vladimirovna herself is a representative of the Dnepropetrovsk oligarchic clan, she can only fight with the “Donetsk”. And also with Dmitry Firtash, his old "sworn friend".
And while the lords will tear each other's forearms and cut their throats, fighting for power, the people can mature to the aforementioned riots. Against all. The authorities will not be able to crush the mass protests: they have too few resources and the flimsy "bayonet" support. The media propaganda factor will also lose its effectiveness: as a rule, as the feeling of emptiness in the stomach increases, the brain starts to turn on. And there will be no shouting about Moscow aggression forever, because there are no “aggressors” and no.
As a result, the masses, requiring only one thing - the right to a normal life, will take to the streets and squares of cities with socialist slogans. And they will not care who sits in Kiev: the pastor, the Fuhrer, the rabbit is still some kind of fairy-tale character from the terrible Ukrainian reality.
The logic of dismantling Ukrainian quasi-statehood will lead to the fact that the already considerable demand for justice in society will increase. Already, the masses in Donetsk call Akhmetov the enemy of Donbass, and soon such slogans will be heard in all cities of Ukraine.
Ukraine is waiting for the materialization of the ghost of socialism, at least the request for it will be huge.
It should also be noted the following: on hatred, not backed by money, you can not build anything, even Nazism. Therefore, soon, even to the very propaganda-stricken Ukrainians, it will begin to reach that a “terrible” end in the form of Putin is better than horror without end in the form of revolutionary gopota on “self-sufficiency”.
Perhaps this is the chance that seemed to burn out in the Kiev fires.