Military Review

Geopolitical chess. Baseball player

133
In this article I want to try to analyze the next steps of Russia in relation to Ukraine. There is no doubt that these steps are planned. But what exactly is Putin planning to do in this party? Nobody knows that. Opinions diverge dramatically. Some say that everything will be limited to the Crimea, others - that Putin will join the Southeast, and others - that he will take all of Ukraine. Let's put all the facts together and try to put together a mosaic of mosaic tiles. We will try to see the alignment of pieces on the board and possible moves of opponents.


So, today's position of Russia. Putin plays black, because the first move was not for him.

The first move was made by the Americans. They, in good old habit, started a color revolution. In general, it is expected and not new, although the move itself is strong. The Maidan passed "with a bang," the people who were fully controlled by the States were brought to power. The former government was disorganized, panicked and began to scatter. Checkmate. It would have been if the master of this game had not been sitting on the other side of the table.

Using the emerging window of powerlessness, Putin delivered a blow that no one expected. He took the Crimea. That is the main goal of the Americans.

If someone did not understand, the main goal of the “squeeze” in Ukraine was to squeeze out the Black Sea fleet from the Crimea. Nobody was going to turn Ukraine into a new Poland, nobody wanted to accept it into NATO. It was necessary that the new authorities denounce the agreement on the fleet and complicate its life as much as possible until 2017. The second goal was to control the gas pipe. Well, the destruction of Ukrainian enterprises after signing an agreement with the EU, the termination of cooperation between Ukraine and Russia in the military, industrial and industrial sectors, the complete subordination of the country's economy to international financial structures is a bonus.

So, Russia has struck and in fact won the battle. The fleet remains on its bases, but now the bases are Russian.

However, the game did not end there. Although the main goal of the Americans has become unattainable, Russia has driven itself into a very difficult position.

First, the Crimea. It does not have a land border with Russia and depends on Ukraine in critical areas - water and energy supply. If with the delivery of goods everything is solved, and even the energy supply can somehow be provided, then water is a problem. In this matter, he is vulnerable and dependent on Kiev.

Also we must not forget that the Crimea is a resort. The blockade of road and rail links with Russia and the ban on Ukrainians from entering the Crimea can reduce the number of tourists at times. And this will greatly affect the incomes of Crimeans. And this is a problem.

Secondly, Transnistria. The new authorities will definitely not show any loyalty to the Russian citizens in this republic and will block her. What is already happening.

Thirdly, the same gas pipe. Now it is not under our control, and therefore the West will take control over it. Control over the pipeline can be for the United States compensation for the defeat in the Crimea.

Fourth, there is a high probability. that the loyal Russian population of the South-East of Ukraine will be subjected to repression. And Russia cannot allow this for image and moral reasons.

These are the negative factors that Russia has encountered today. And these issues need to be addressed.

If someone thinks that the grandmaster, playing with black pieces, does not see these layouts, he is mistaken.

But seeing the alignment and seeing a way out of the situation are two different things. What is the way out?

The solution that solves all the problems at once is to bring the loyal Russian government to power in Kiev. And not just bringing to power, but also securing this loyal behavior for a long time.

Someone may argue that a solution could be the accession of the whole territory of Ukraine to Russia. But it is not. Think about how much money Russia will have to spend to raise the standard of living of the Crimeans to the all-Russian. What means will be spent on infrastructure projects. What funds will be invested in medicine, in education, in roads, in a bridge across the Kerch Strait, in repairing everything that has not been repaired for more than 20 years. In payments for social. guarantees and pensions for two million people, finally. These are gigantic amounts. On the scale - this is the second Olympiad! And that's only two million people. And what means will be necessary for forty three millions? What means will be discussed when it comes to the whole country? These funds will need to be twenty times more than for the Crimea. This is many hundreds of billions of dollars. And there is no such free money in Russia now. They are not in Europe either. They are not in the United States. And therefore we can safely say that there is no question of any joining of Ukraine. She will not join anywhere, neither to us, nor to the West.

So, we found the only way out. We need to bring to power the forces loyal to us.

I am sure that Putin sees exactly this decision. The question is how he will implement it. Let's look at the nuances that seem to get lost in the background News from the Crimea.

The first. You can see how the junta who has come to power rushes about in panic. Laws are accepted - and immediately abolished. People are changing in the regions and in the army. The shift is already in the third round! Some solutions contradict others. The population that once supported the Maidan, is already beginning to reject this power too ... Political chaos is brewing.

The States have no plan to continue the party. They hoped for mate in two moves, but the game suddenly turned into a positional confrontation. They understand that Putin is preparing something, but they do not understand what it is.

We made several distracting moves and confused the enemy. All these exercises, the concentration of troops on the border - this is a smoke screen. It was necessary to intimidate the enemy and sow panic. And this has already happened.

Further. Notice how the protest moods suddenly changed in the Southeast. If earlier the unorganized crowd chanted "Russia" and smashed the administrative buildings, now something else has appeared. Now began to appear posters calling for Yanukovych. He is asked to return and restore order. The organization of the protest was streamlined, clear leaders seemed not to become (more precisely, they ceased to “shine”), but the protests intensified.

Third. Protests across the region have become coordinated. In the Southeast, meetings began to be held on the same day in several areas at once. This disperses the junta’s strength, and it can’t have time to react everywhere.

Fourth. Russia has not recognized anyone who seized power and does not conduct any negotiations with them. What seems illogical ... The West insists on the negotiation process, but Russia is silent. This can only mean one thing. Russia knows for sure that the people who have come to power will hold out for a very short time, and there is simply no point in negotiating with them about something.

The fifth. No one in Ukraine stops the pogroms of gangster hundreds of Maidan. What is also illogical ... It seems that the people who came to power should understand that all this “guljapole” is very dangerous for them. The population is increasingly turning against the junta, and there can be no question of any victory in the elections under such conditions. But there is no reaction. And if any orders of the junta of the “disarm everything” type and others appear, such orders are sabotaged by lower levels of government. It is sabotaged. In fact, to firmly stop the atrocities of several hundred scumbags is a matter of one or two days. The same SBU, so zealously catching anti-Maidan organizers, could cope with it. But nothing is done.

The sixth. Videos began to appear, indicating the presence of well-armed and organized residents of the Southeast, opposing the junta, but not yet acting.

I sketched a few pieces of the mosaic, and now we will try to put together a whole picture of them.

It seems to me that the grandmaster’s plan is as follows. Now in Ukraine, discontent of the population with the new government is fomenting. Candid gangsterism and the incapacity of the junta forces a growing number of people to reconsider their views and political preferences. Against the background of the creation of lawlessness, the idea begins to take shape that, yes, the old power was not perfect, but it was better than today. And this thought will only get stronger.

When exactly the move will be made, I do not know. I can only assume that it will be before the election, until May 25. Yanukovych will return to Ukraine. He will respond to the call of the people. And the attack will begin on Kiev. Those “polite people” will seize the regions, Yanukovych will appoint in them the leadership of the organizers of the anti-Maidan, and the people will welcome it vigorously. "Golden eagle" and armed organized residents of the Southeast will begin to hard-clean the bandits. It will be publicly announced that the junta is outlawed, that any cooperation with it will be punished. A state of emergency will be introduced. An order will be given to the army, which is now simply withdrawing itself and does not play any role, to restore order in the country. Most of this army will consist of "polite people", although the armed forces of Ukraine, humiliated and angry, will also show themselves.

There will be a solemn seizure of Kiev. There will be a sweep of the bandits from the western regions. And residents of these regions will not mind. There will be an indicative trial of the remnants of the junta that did not manage to escape and the oligarchs that financed it.

And then there will be elections. Yanukovych will not take part in them. The impetus for his loyalty to Russia and the fulfillment of the tasks assigned to him will be his money in Russia and the guarantee of his security to Russia.

Southeast will nominate its presidential candidate. This will be a pro-Russian candidate. And Ukraine will tie its fate with Russia for a long time, since the West will be the enemy of the new government, perhaps it will not even recognize it.

Somehow, I see further developments. Perhaps, I am mistaken in something, I lose sight of something. Still, I'm just an amateur, and the grandmaster plays for blacks.
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  1. platitsyn70
    platitsyn70 24 March 2014 08: 26
    +38
    It’s not possible to calculate Putin; for this, he was taught by the KGB super aces.
    1. platitsyn70
      platitsyn70 24 March 2014 08: 29
      +29
      They returned the anthem, returned the Crimea, let's return the KGB, the Tsereushniki are afraid of this word alone.
      1. platitsyn70
        platitsyn70 24 March 2014 08: 36
        +8
        Thirdly, the same gas pipe. Now it is not under our control, and therefore the West will take control over it. Control over the pipeline can be for the United States compensation for the defeat in the Crimea.
        let's say the EU or the USA took control of an old pipe with 80% wear and that they block the gas or charge the transit, two years later they will lead to the north stream 2 and the south one where I do not see the bonus.
        1. saag
          saag 24 March 2014 12: 59
          +1
          it’s bad that you don’t see, those flows still need to be put into operation, and now you can do anything with the old GTS
          1. Apologet.Ru
            Apologet.Ru 24 March 2014 14: 00
            +1
            hi
            The author began with fascinating realities, and ended with the desired fiction ...
            1. The comment was deleted.
          2. ABV
            ABV 24 March 2014 15: 15
            0
            anything to do! what? .... shut off the gas to ourselves?
          3. The comment was deleted.
          4. bif
            bif 24 March 2014 15: 20
            +2
            Quote: saag
            it’s bad that you don’t see, those flows still need to be put into operation, and now you can do anything with the old GTS

            Already, with a great desire, the Nord Stream can take the load and devastate UkrGTS: Nord Stream - The gas pipeline should have a capacity of 55 bcm of gas per year, there are also other gas pipelines. Yes, there will be a slight gas shortage in the EU, but the price will rise and someone's hot heads will cool off.
            Here are some outdated data
            "According to the official data of NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine (hereinafter we operate with data from the internal reports of NJSC Naftogaz, available to Khvili), in 2010, 57,7 billion cubic meters of natural gas were delivered to Ukrainian consumers through the GTS. transit to the Republic of Moldova amounted to 3,2 billion cubic meters, transit to the EU countries - 95,4 billion cubic meters.In 2011, these figures amounted to 59,3 billion, 3,1 billion and 101,1 billion cubic meters, respectively. companies (these data may be further corrected, since today NJSC Naftogaz has not completed the approval of financial plans of enterprises for the year that has begun), in 2012 consumers in Ukraine will receive 59,2 billion, Moldova - 3,3 billion, EU - 93,5 billion cubic meters of gas"More information at http://voprosik.net/gts-ukrainy-analiz/ © QUESTION
        2. AnaBat
          AnaBat 24 March 2014 14: 30
          +4
          GDP chess player who has no equal yet yes
        3. afdjhbn67
          afdjhbn67 24 March 2014 14: 46
          0
          but they won’t fill it .. worse than hoh .. you didn’t deal with it anymore, except to blow it up ..
        4. So_o_tozh
          So_o_tozh 25 March 2014 11: 52
          0
          Geyropeytsy can slow down your flows and then sho? Send green men to force peace?
      2. platitsyn70
        platitsyn70 24 March 2014 08: 38
        +2
        Secondly, Transnistria. The new authorities will definitely not show any loyalty to the Russian citizens in this republic and will block her. What is already happening.
        and now it, even if so declared a humanitarian catastrophe, and the EU will help.
        1. platitsyn70
          platitsyn70 24 March 2014 08: 40
          +3
          Fourth, there is a high probability. that the loyal Russian population of the South-East of Ukraine will be subjected to repression. And Russia cannot allow this for image and moral reasons.
          as soon as the new authorities begin to tighten the nut, a civil war will take place and Russia will lead troops with a mandate from the United Nations
          1. platitsyn70
            platitsyn70 24 March 2014 08: 45
            +2
            Fourth. Russia has not recognized anyone who seized power and does not conduct any negotiations with them. What seems illogical ... The West insists on the negotiation process, but Russia is silent. This can only mean one thing. Russia knows for sure that the people who have come to power will hold out for a very short time, and there is simply no point in negotiating with them about something.
            and the West began to distance itself from the Ukrainian authorities, so the egg doesn’t go to Europe anymore, I need to prepare documents for a loan from the IMF from a smear.
            1. platitsyn70
              platitsyn70 24 March 2014 08: 48
              0
              The fifth. No one in Ukraine stops the pogroms of gangster hundreds of Maidan. What is also illogical ... It seems that the people who came to power should understand that all this “guljapole” is very dangerous for them. The population is increasingly turning against the junta, and there can be no question of any victory in the elections under such conditions. But there is no reaction. And if any orders of the junta of the “disarm everything” type and others appear, such orders are sabotaged by lower levels of government. It is sabotaged. In fact, to firmly stop the atrocities of several hundred scumbags is a matter of one or two days. The same SBU, so zealously catching anti-Maidan organizers, could cope with it. But nothing is done.
              that it turns out half works for the CIA, and half the FSB
              1. platitsyn70
                platitsyn70 24 March 2014 08: 52
                0
                It seems to me that the grandmaster’s plan is as follows. Now in Ukraine, discontent of the population with the new government is fomenting. Candid gangsterism and the incapacity of the junta forces a growing number of people to reconsider their views and political preferences. Against the background of the creation of lawlessness, the idea begins to take shape that, yes, the old power was not perfect, but it was better than today. And this thought will only get stronger.
                so it turns out from the words of the author that Turchins and Yatsenyuh people of Russia, funny, funny.
                1. Rus2012
                  Rus2012 24 March 2014 11: 26
                  +3
                  Some say that everything will be limited to Crimea, others - that Putin will join the Southeast, and others - that he will take all of Ukraine.


                  Quote: platitsyn70
                  so it turns out from the words of the author that Turchins and Yatsenyuh are people of Russia


                  Not so simple ... and difficult at the same time.

                  Fact 1. Russia will not stop there. Otherwise, the first victory will turn into a defeat over time.
                  Fact 2. Ukraine will not be stable for a long time. It is split into irreconcilable parts. There is no person on the horizon who can remove this contradiction. It just won’t work out. If in the near future even nothing happens - it will be shown on 9 May ...
                  1. jjj
                    jjj 24 March 2014 12: 20
                    +5
                    I think that the first stage will be the liberation of Ukraine from the Bandera yoke. Then a referendum on how people want to live on. East and south will go to Russia, West - to the West. And Ukraine will remain within the borders of the seventeenth century. But the section will happen voluntarily. In full compliance with international law
                  2. Rus2012
                    Rus2012 24 March 2014 14: 14
                    +1
                    Quote: Rus2012
                    If in the near future even nothing happens - it will be shown on 9 May ...

                    Meanwhile, they already predict:
                    Victory Day in Ukraine will be a day of trouble

                    Victory Day 9 May in Ukraine will not be celebrated. It will be celebrated on May 8, as in Europe, and May 9 will be celebrated as a funeral day in memory of the victims of the Soviet occupation.

                    The corresponding bill was prepared by the Ukrainian Minister of Culture Yevgeny Nishchuk and approved by the Secretary of the National Security Council Andriy Parubiy. In the coming days, it will be submitted to the Verkhovna Rada.
                  3. infinite silence ...
                    infinite silence ... 24 March 2014 15: 06
                    +3
                    Moreover, the wretched, have already submitted a bill on the abolition of May 9 as the Victory Day. The East will definitely disagree!
                  4. Space
                    Space 24 March 2014 15: 07
                    +2
                    But doesn’t it remind you what is happening with Ukraine of the situation with Sudan? I find some similarities. In both cases, the United States initiated the separation of the country. Both wards were involved in the circle of interests of China and the EU. The link to energy resources is accordingly present. As a result of the referendum, two irreconcilable regions appear. There is a religious factor - compact living.
                    This is vainly not digging.
                    And what do you think?
                    hi
                  5. Andrey Yuryevich
                    Andrey Yuryevich 24 March 2014 18: 15
                    +3
                    Quote: Rus2012
                    Fact 1. Russia will not stop there. Otherwise, the first victory will turn into a defeat over time.
                    negative
                    strongly disagree! Crimea will never be considered "our defeat" in any scenario! all temporary difficulties will be solved, and this "unsinkable aircraft carrier" will always be ours, although the Americans slept and saw their bases there!
                2. lelikas
                  lelikas 24 March 2014 13: 03
                  +2
                  Quote: platitsyn70
                  Today, 08: 52

                  Quote: platitsyn70
                  Today, 08: 48

                  Quote: platitsyn70
                  Today, 08: 45

                  Quote: platitsyn70
                  Today, 08: 40

                  Quote: platitsyn70
                  Today, 08: 38

                  Quote: platitsyn70
                  Today, 08: 29

                  Quote: platitsyn70
                  Today, 08: 26

                  Colleague, did you, yesterday, purely by chance, a famous novelist bite? laughing
            2. saag
              saag 24 March 2014 13: 00
              +1
              Well, where does Yatsenyuk and Europe, Yatsenyuk a protege of the United States, he doesn’t need this Europe at all, he put this Europe like Victoria Nuladn
          2. So_o_tozh
            So_o_tozh 25 March 2014 11: 53
            0
            They will not spin anything, you underestimate the Ukrainian patriotism of the southeast of Ukraine.
      3. domokl
        domokl 24 March 2014 08: 46
        +25
        The author is logical ... But as is often the case in one place, a brick is turned over and the entire building under construction will turn into a barn ...
        But this brick is there ... And this is an assertion about the need for a pro-Russian president and some kind of loyalty to western Ukraine ...
        Rather, Zhirinovsky’s version is more likely ... Eastern regions are to us ... Western Poland, Romania and Hungary. The south is also to us ... And the center will be Ukraine itself within the borders, as it was seen by the Ukrainian idol of the independence of Grushevsky ...
        1. I_VOIN_I
          I_VOIN_I 24 March 2014 09: 10
          +7
          There will be no division of Ukraine; Russia cannot yet digest the East. There will be federalization, I think. But the return of Yanuk should be supported by the EU, otherwise there will be a civil war.
          1. VAS 84
            VAS 84 24 March 2014 10: 05
            +13
            Why digest the East? It contains the whole Ruin, will they not feed themselves?
            To give tax exemptions for the transitional period and in 3-5 years he will also become a donor.
            1. afdjhbn67
              afdjhbn67 24 March 2014 14: 51
              +1
              you see, dear man: if you try to grow an unhealthy organ to a healthy body .. there will be a negative reaction, with infection of the whole body
            2. infinite silence ...
              infinite silence ... 24 March 2014 15: 09
              +1
              You argue as a healthy person, forgetting that THERE are not healthy now ...
          2. Kurkin
            Kurkin 24 March 2014 14: 01
            +6
            South - East do not need to digest as well as the Crimea. These are Russian regions with a less developed infrastructure and economy, plus gas, oil, coal, metals, engineering. The possessions of all ukrooligarchs are nationalized by the Don Republic and this Republic as part of the Odessa, Kherson, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhya, Donetsk, Kharkov and Lugansk regions of the former Ukraine are part of the Russian Federation. Moreover, there are well-established economic ties. A preferential tax period of 3-5 years for both the Crimea and the Don Republic, plus budget subsidies, and I think after 2 years of stability within the Russian Federation, these entities will come into a positive balance, that is, they will become an asset, not a liability, for the Russian economy. Moreover, in this option, the Russian Federation can easily build autocracy, a self-sufficient economy, with its own payment system, and the rejection of the dollar in favor of the gold ruble.
            1. ATATA
              ATATA 24 March 2014 14: 13
              +6
              Quote: Kurkin
              These are Russian regions with a less developed infrastructure and economy, plus gas, oil, coal, metals, engineering. The possessions of all ukrooligarchs are nationalized by the Don Republic and this Republic as part of the Odessa, Kherson, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhya, Donetsk, Kharkov and Lugansk regions of the former Ukraine are part of the Russian Federation.

              Not so simple.
              In reality, even in the SE, the opinions of the people are divided.
              Take into account the real factor RUSSIAN SPEAKING Svidomity, which over the 23 years of independence, the Kiev government was able to grow in a southeast large enough quantity.
              This fact cannot be ignored. And in 1 month you can’t solve this problem.
              Of course, I’m not a grandmaster, but I think that SE is not worth joining now.
              1 Actually, at the first stage it is necessary to achieve real federalization of Ukraine, so that the Zapadents could no longer in principle twist Ukraine like a tail of a dog and drag it into NATO and the EU.
              2 Launch the economic process spontaneous regeneration SE with orders from Russia. Russia doesn’t have the opportunity to dump money on such a large region, and there is no such need.
              3 In parallel, start a real struggle for the minds of Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the SE.
              IMHO something like that. hi
              1. Andrey Yuryevich
                Andrey Yuryevich 24 March 2014 18: 20
                +1
                Quote: ATATA
                3 In parallel, start a real struggle for the minds of Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the SE.
                them there for more than 20 years these brains "had" how many years now do you need to format them?
                1. ATATA
                  ATATA 24 March 2014 18: 32
                  0
                  Quote: Andrey Yurievich
                  them there for more than 20 years these brains "had" how many years now do you need to format them?

                  There is still no other option.
                  Moreover, for twenty years they were able to hammer into heresy, then the truth will then punch its way into MOSCOW faster.
            2. afdjhbn67
              afdjhbn67 24 March 2014 14: 53
              0
              Russian only 40% of them at least 10-15% are already infected with hohli spores..zma about the rest of the hoh..lack part I will not even say
              1. ATATA
                ATATA 24 March 2014 16: 28
                0
                Quote: afdjhbn67
                Russian only 40% of them at least 10-15% are already infected with hohli spores..zma about the rest of the hoh..lack part I will not even say

                And the remaining 60% are 100% infected, or 50%?
        2. Rus2012
          Rus2012 24 March 2014 11: 28
          +2
          Quote: domokl
          Rather more likely is the Zhirinovsky variant ...

          To do this, the whole world must sit at the table ... AGREE ... and so do ...
          Is this possible today?
          1. Rus2012
            Rus2012 24 March 2014 12: 50
            +3
            good global analytics on the situation with Ukraine -
            The conflict around Ukraine is only part of a much larger game
            The Ukrainian front has three dimensions.
            On the first level this is a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, more precisely, the current Kiev authorities. To strengthen its position in the country, Kiev is trying to represent Russia as an aggressor interested in dismembering Ukraine. The real goal of Moscow is to preserve a united Ukraine (already without Crimea), in which there are forces in power that do not seek to make the country an anti-Russian bridgehead and represent the interests of all its inhabitants and regions. Kiev escalates military hysteria - digs trenches and gathers the national guard, intends to introduce visas and calls for help from the West. In response, Moscow only threatens to demand debts - but at the same time it is not going to deprive the people of Ukraine who are working in Russia of earnings: because we want a union, not a disengagement. Despite the fact that the conflict with the Kiev authorities will escalate, Moscow will not take any measures against the residents of Ukraine - because the goal is to shift the current government, and not to replace the population of a fraternal neighboring country.
            The conflict between Russia and the Kiev authorities can stop only if one of the parties disappears - so the Kiev regime expects the fall. He is not a subject of negotiations for Russia - unlike the people of Ukraine or the Western authorities, on whom the Kiev authorities depend. Therefore, Moscow will not conduct negotiations with Kiev. And make peace with them too. The virtual war between Kiev and Russia will continue until the fall of the current government.

            Second level battle - confrontation between the West and Russia. It is these two forces that determine the future of Ukraine. An agreement at this level is possible only if both parties wish - but the West clearly does not yet demonstrate such intentions. He is not satisfied not only with the return of Ukraine to an alliance with Russia - through the Customs and then Eurasian unions - but also with neutral Ukraine. Only European integration, only “polonization” of Ukraine, that is, the creation of another barrage ditch from Russia from it. Moscow, on the contrary, stubbornly proposes to agree on a neutral status, on renouncing attempts to forcibly tie Ukraine to the West and tear it away from Russia - realizing that any independent government in Ukraine will be interested in at least economic integration with Russia.

            Third level which the Ukrainian front brings us to is a transformation of the entire existing world order. On such a scale, Ukrainian problems are generally poorly visible - although formally they became the reason for the start of the global conflict (as the Balkan problems led to the world war a hundred years ago). This is not just a conflict between Russia and the West, it is an attempt by Anglo-Saxon civilization to maintain its global dominance, and the United States itself is a unipolar world.

            Fully - http://vz.ru/politics/2014/3/24/678429.html
        3. dmitriygorshkov
          dmitriygorshkov 24 March 2014 12: 47
          +3
          Quote: domokl
          .Western Poland, Romania and Hungary.

          For some reason it seems to me that the Poles will be happy to talk with the granddaughters of "Galicia", no matter how they rush to seek political asylum later!
          1. Sid.74
            Sid.74 24 March 2014 13: 30
            +1
            Quote: dmitriygorshkov
            For some reason it seems to me that the Poles will be happy to talk with the granddaughters of "Galicia", no matter how they rush to seek political asylum later!

            In Belarus, in Katyn !!! yes
      4. jjj
        jjj 24 March 2014 12: 15
        +2
        Quote: platitsyn70
        let's get back and the KGB

        I also offer this for a long time. Costs, almost none. Rename the Security Council to the State Security Committee. There, all the same, the position includes the heads of services - the former Main Directorates. And the result of the renaming is thought to be good. Again, this is a great distraction
      5. 225chay
        225chay 24 March 2014 12: 50
        +5
        Quote: platitsyn70
        They returned the anthem, returned the Crimea, let's return the KGB, the Tsereushniki are afraid of this word alone.


        Indeed, at Batka KGB thoroughly catches up with "frost" on shitty
      6. afdjhbn67
        afdjhbn67 24 March 2014 14: 43
        0
        Old Man was not afraid
    2. Sid.74
      Sid.74 24 March 2014 08: 43
      +9
      The Maidan passed "with a bang," people were brought to power completely controlled by the States.

      I think that the talking heads in "power" do not reflect the aspirations of the people!
      By the fights on the Maidan, this is already visible, the new Maidan is not far off! Only he thinks it will be bloodier, tougher and more transient! Well, they will send no more mo.k.a.l.u. what
      And here's what else you need to clear the information field from the heroic glory and head Maidan! How it will be realized, it is interesting!
      And so the article + hi
      1. domokl
        domokl 24 March 2014 08: 51
        +4
        Quote: Sid.74
        And here’s what else you need to clean the information field from the heroes of glory and Maidan’s head

        The frontal attack in this case will resemble the competition for breaking bricks with the head ... The main thing is not the number of bricks, but the time through which the head will crack.
        Purification of the brain, may the doctor forgive me for the denseness, as it seems to me, will pass through the post ... moreover, it is strict. When all food is water, it is.
        You must admit that it’s hard to believe in a bright future if the gut is written in the gut. At that time, relatives from the Crimea write that so many people have come in that already the dog had to be put on the chain in order to pass the canura ... This will be the most effective in today's situation ...
        1. Sid.74
          Sid.74 24 March 2014 09: 14
          +3
          Quote: domokl
          Purification of the brain, may the doctor forgive me for the denseness, as it seems to me, will pass through the post ... moreover, it is strict. When all food is water, it is.

          Disable UkrTV !? There is either isolation from all of this, or opposition! That is, without a state resource it will be difficult, for the great masses of the people to bring some obvious things!
          Quote: domokl
          At this time, relatives from the Crimea write that the people had come so far that they already had to put the dog on a chain in order to surrender Kanur ... That would be the most effective in today's situation ...

          Even if the whole of Crimea calls relatives, friends and acquaintances! And they say that we are doing well! It’s not a fact that Ukrainians will get there! Putin’s propaganda will say! Then, as if you’re cunning, you need to act like that! As Ashton snipers and Victoria FAU the EU Nuland! laughing
          1. domokl
            domokl 24 March 2014 09: 36
            +3
            Quote: Sid.74
            Disabling UkrTV !?

            I don’t have Ukrainian TV..But I stupidly tapped the search engine-Video News of Ukraine and look calmly ... Do you really think it’s possible to turn it off now? In the age of the Internet and satellite TV?
            Quote: Sid.74
            Not the fact that Ukrainians will reach

            But here I do not agree ... Governments (any) have always lied and will lie ... Like doctors in a hospice ... We are used to it and understand that we need to believe only by checking what the opponents wrote. But in interpersonal communication, especially between friends and relatives of this same faith much more ...
            1. Sid.74
              Sid.74 24 March 2014 10: 15
              +2
              Quote: domokl
              We are used to it and understand that you need to believe only by checking what your opponents have written.

              Well, then how did the Maidan organize? There was not one honest word, as I remember now, how this singer waving bullets in the sleeve from the stage with Lyashko, even I was ashamed of the Ukrainians who believed them! It turns out that people have no Internet !
              Quote: domokl
              But in interpersonal communication, especially between friends and relatives of this very faith, much more ...

              It may well be! But even hundreds of thousands of people who believed in their words! These are not millions of zombies who are waiting for an American aircraft carrier that Nuland with livers! I certainly understand what you mean! Say with the world and Ukrainians will have the truth! But I think you still need a state resource! It would not be bad to make an analogue of RT only in Russian! I would love to watch it myself! hi
            2. poccinin
              poccinin 24 March 2014 13: 45
              +3
              the aunt in the hospital told about her local friend (the Far East), she grew up here. she lived and left for Ukraine. and went to the Maidan. and became such a stubborn supporter of it that my mother does not cry. she scolds us with the last words. in general, "her gilyaku" Young people have been brainwashed in 23 years. Only the grave will fix them. where does so much hatred and anger towards Russians come from?
              1. afdjhbn67
                afdjhbn67 24 March 2014 14: 57
                +1
                two answers and both true Freud,
                genetics
          2. dmitriygorshkov
            dmitriygorshkov 24 March 2014 12: 53
            +1
            According
            Quote: Sid.74
            Victoria FAK the EU Nuland!
            huge plus to you!
            laughing out loud! laughing
    3. RusKaz
      RusKaz 24 March 2014 09: 06
      0
      Quote: platitsyn70
      it is not possible to calculate

      Quote: platitsyn70
      taught KGB super aces

      yeah ... you seem like a furious fan of Putin))
    4. zzz
      zzz 24 March 2014 09: 12
      +2
      When exactly the move will be made, I do not know. I can only assume that this will be before the elections, until May 25. Yanukovych will return to Ukraine. He will respond to the call of the people. And the offensive against Kiev will begin.

      I rode in the car and listened to the radio "Russian News Service" So there they asked a famous astrologer (not Globa) a woman - and so she said that April and December of this year will be the most intense and unpredictable. In short, something serious will happen. But she doesn't know, she's just an astrologer.
      1. SRC P-15
        SRC P-15 24 March 2014 14: 16
        +4
        Quote: zzz
        But she does not know, she is simply an astrologer.

        I am not an astrologer, but I know Easter will be in April, and New Year in December. laughing In general, we assume, but God disposes!
    5. Hippopotamus
      Hippopotamus 24 March 2014 09: 13
      +1
      Everything sounds too good and beautiful to be like the truth. Incidentally, time will tell. The article is a definite plus!
    6. starshina78
      starshina78 24 March 2014 11: 47
      +1
      The plan is wonderful! Yes, here its implementation is in question, and the actions that the Main Hero from Russia will take are unknown to anyone. And it is unlikely that there is a plan at all, rather, everything will happen spontaneously.
    7. afdjhbn67
      afdjhbn67 24 March 2014 14: 41
      0
      there is something reasonable in this article .. you see, the West might agree with the interpretation - a chess player is against a baseball player, but there is one more version - maybe they play go (the eastern game) with them and the logic there is a little different .. ps. do not look for the Chinese footprint here is different ..
    8. infinite silence ...
      infinite silence ... 24 March 2014 15: 04
      0
      And the most unexpected ... It is really difficult to calculate.
    9. Andrey Yuryevich
      Andrey Yuryevich 24 March 2014 18: 09
      +1
      if Putin knows how to play chess, then Obama can only play checkers, and then - in "chapaeva" ...
    10. StolzSS
      StolzSS 24 March 2014 21: 03
      0
      Do not praise his abilities. He hasn’t played 5 with a plus yet, but 4 can already be safely bet. We will still see the triumph of GDP, but for now, Ukraine needs to be returned to the peaceful path of creation and the Customs Union at its expense to expand ...
  2. Altona
    Altona 24 March 2014 08: 27
    +3
    The article’s debut is generally correct, but we’ll see the ending ... It seems that Novorossia will also be able to play a local game ...
    1. Arhj
      Arhj 24 March 2014 08: 41
      +7
      I do not think that Russia in the current situation is advantageous for the collapse of Ukraine. Otherwise, we run the risk of gaining a loyal Novorossiya and the avidly anti-Russian central and western Ukraine, even with a pro-Russian government. Control over the whole of Ukraine will provide control over its information field, which is probably the most important thing today. And Yanukovych, although no president, is beneficial for Russia in this post, because terribly frightened and so disappointed in his former allies that he would do whatever he was told in Moscow.
      In any case, time works for Russia.
      1. Egoza
        Egoza 24 March 2014 13: 45
        +4
        Quote: Arhj
        I do not think that Russia in the current situation is advantageous for the collapse of Ukraine.

        Why immediately decay? De jure - federalization, de facto - memory with the EU, VU - with the Russian Federation, and in the middle Kiev with a "very smart intelligentsia" lives on those handouts that the federations will give it after the implementation of its budget!
      2. So_o_tozh
        So_o_tozh 25 March 2014 11: 59
        0
        Time does not work for Russia, I am afraid there are fewer and fewer people loyal to Russia, especially after the seizure of Crimea. With the Banderlog and Nazis, we will eventually cope with ourselves and we do not expect helpers from the northeast. And there will be fewer and fewer naive people who consider Russians to be brothers who, by their "old" friendship, occupied Crimea.
  3. Tersky
    Tersky 24 March 2014 08: 28
    +34
    Putin must observe a few NOT: 1. DO NOT interfere directly in the internal affairs of Ukraine and DO NOT allow others 2. DO NOT send troops unless absolutely necessary. 3. Endlessly troll the Kiev "authorities" and at the same time the entire world community with the legitimate Yanukovych, who will legitimize any actions of Russia in Ukraine, incl. it is possible to sign the results of the referendums 4. DO NOT give gas discounts, DO NOT give loans, DO NOT let Ukrainian products into the Russian market, DO NOT give installments for existing debts and demand their payments. 5. DO NOT pay attention to the cries of the "progressive West", bend your line through diplomatic channels and win back the information space, mainly in Europe 6. DO NOT allow the killing of Russians and suppress by force the protest movement in Crimea and the South-East 7. DO NOT rush - time in this case is a reliable ally. Only on condition of observance of all will NOT be possible in the Ukraine party to Bardak Obama and the West to declare MAT.
    1. Sid.74
      Sid.74 24 March 2014 08: 50
      +6
      Quote: Tersky
      DO NOT rush - time in this case is a reliable ally.

      You are right! April 1st! I think there will be something with something! There is no nuclear fuel and there can be no gas! For the Kiev authorities and the EU! Right here, snakes from the EU run in with Yatsenyukha! And Vova will simply congratulate the EU and the Kiev junta on April Fool's Day! !!
      laughing fellow
    2. Combitor
      Combitor 24 March 2014 09: 14
      +12
      Quote: Tersky
      win back the information space, mainly in Europe

      While playing out the European information space, one should not forget the Russian space. The Fifth Column, its information "mouthpieces" compete in their skill and effort to distort reality in Russia's policy towards Ukraine. Here are just a couple of examples of publications in the Daily Journal (excerpts):
      <WINNERS
      MARCH 24, 2014, ALEXANDER PODRABINEK
      Fireworks in Moscow in honor of the capture of the Crimea, of course, was colorful. Evil generally loves to dress in beautiful clothes, in every possible way to embellish himself, to let out a raid of mystery, romance, sentimentality and pathos. So it’s easier to pass poison as a delicacy.
      The military victory over Ukraine was not impressive, that's why the thunder of the orchestras should drown out any doubts about the righteousness and heroism of the domestic militarists. Indeed, what impression should the seizure of Ukrainian military units in the Crimea make on a normal person when women and children marched in front of the Russian soldiers and mummers? So that the Ukrainian servicemen do not take it into their heads to shoot at the invaders! What kind of brave heroes are they who hide behind women and children as a human shield? Panties, and nothing more.>
      <CRIMEA - TERRITORY OF TOTAL LIES AND FRONIAL PROPAGANDA
      24 MARCH 2014, ALEXANDER RYKLIN
      On Saturday, March 22, according to various news agencies, the Ukrainian border service allegedly blocked the exit from the Crimea. They brought and dramatic things: they say, in this regard, the Ukrainian military, who did not want to re-swear Russia and remained faithful to Ukraine, could not leave the territory of Crimea.
      It is not very clear why the audience's attention was directed precisely to these details. Apparently, it was understood that now because of the Ukrainian security forces, people loyal to their duty and members of their families were in dire danger. That is, they found themselves trapped in enemy territory, where imminent reprisals await them. But after some time, information appeared that the border was closed by the forces of the so-called self-defense of Crimea ("polite green men"), due to whose actions many kilometers of traffic jams arose at the checkpoints.>

      If we take on faith what is written in such publications, it turns out that the rest of the Russian media (especially the state media) are simply lying, that those stories of Russian correspondents, which showed how the Maidan fighters behave, how they threw stones and bottles with a combustible mixture of policemen, how they came to institutions and under threat of reprisals forced officials to write letters of resignation - this is "misinformation". That, finally, the numerous demonstrations in Crimea for joining Russia and demonstrations in Russia in support of Crimea are staged productions, and their participants are a stupid, brainwashed crowd, which either for money or threats were brought to these "actions". And that the only legitimate power in Ukraine is the Banderaites with a fascist ideology, who seized power in Ukraine thanks to the financial support of the West by the forces of military units that underwent special training, again with money from the West.
      The "Fifth Column" is strenuously trumpeting in its media that Russia is an aggressor and directly calls on the West to apply sanctions against our country, including the military. I don’t remember that in other countries the media so openly slandered their own state. It cannot even be called an opposition.
      Therefore, fighting for the European information space, it is necessary first of all to clear the Russian space from rot.
    3. zzz
      zzz 24 March 2014 09: 21
      +3
      Quote: Tersky
      Only on condition of observance of all it will NOT be possible in the "Ukraine" party to Bardak Obama and the West to declare MAT.



      I would add, with your permission, one more NOT - not to be substituted. We need him alive, for the implementation of all NOT.
      1. Tersky
        Tersky 24 March 2014 10: 04
        +3
        Quote: zzz
        I would add, with your permission, one more NOT - not to be substituted.

        While he is doing great, remember the Crimea when all the Western media squealed in unison about the introduction of the RF Armed Forces on the peninsula, but in reality it turned out a global puncture .. wink
        1. Altona
          Altona 24 March 2014 11: 24
          0
          http://www.inosmi.ru/sngbaltia/20140313/218503298.html
          -------------------------
          Here is an interesting link with a comment thread ... It is very interesting to read ...
        2. The comment was deleted.
    4. IRBIS
      IRBIS 24 March 2014 10: 57
      +5
      Quote: Tersky
      2. DO NOT enter troops unless absolutely necessary.

      All right. Only here it is impossible to send troops, categorically. Any such action will give an occasion to those who have not yet decided in Ukraine in their views to unite with the radicals. Then there will definitely be a paragraph. Let the people decide what and whom they want. Help - yes, but quietly. To support and provide information coverage of events - to the fullest. Any attempts to provide purely power support will lead to the opposite result.
      1. Igor39
        Igor39 24 March 2014 12: 10
        +1
        The situation in Ukraine is the path to the collapse of the EU and NATO. In the enemy’s camp, the difference in positions, all treaties and agreements can now be erased, many understand that the United States will not fight with Russia for this and this fact says a lot.
    5. So_o_tozh
      So_o_tozh 25 March 2014 12: 03
      0
      Mat will be to the people of Ukraine. And all hope will only remain on the European Union and staff members, everyone will owe them and everyone will forever curse the Russian "brothers".
  4. Arbatov
    Arbatov 24 March 2014 08: 32
    +2
    Is the plan proposed by the author too simple for the grandmaster?
    1. Arhj
      Arhj 24 March 2014 08: 44
      +5
      And the skill of playing chess is to create a situation where the subsequent scenario will be as simple as possible, but inevitable for the opponent. The main difficulties usually arise at the preparatory stage, when the main work is done.
    2. vinc
      vinc 24 March 2014 10: 35
      0
      There must be something more interesting. Too easy for a grandmaster.
    3. The comment was deleted.
  5. Arhj
    Arhj 24 March 2014 08: 33
    +10
    I got the impression that the Western sponsors of this mess do not believe that the so-called power in Kiev will last long. And after Julia returned and began to actively criticize her party members, I am sure of that. Maidan drained into the toilet
  6. buzuke
    buzuke 24 March 2014 08: 33
    +4
    Crimea. It does not have a land border with Russia and depends on Ukraine in critical areas - water and energy supply. If everything is solved with the delivery of goods, and even the energy supply can be somehow provided, then with water - problems

    it means that it is necessary to speed up the construction by Rosatom of mobile sea-based reactors. they are just designed to provide settlements with fresh water and electricity
    1. alex-s
      alex-s 24 March 2014 09: 55
      +1
      Or maybe to bring atomic icebreakers to the Crimea? After all, they also have powerful reactors. At least for the spring-summer period.
  7. Revolver
    Revolver 24 March 2014 08: 34
    0
    An interesting version, but under certain conditions it may become quite likely.
  8. Same lech
    Same lech 24 March 2014 08: 36
    +1
    An interesting version of the author ... and if you introduce such a moment ... Yaitseniuk hires PMCs to suppress the resistance of the people, creates death squads to eliminate the most rebellious and ultimately draws NATO forces into the conflict in some way (although I think Yaitseniuk will squeeze a point from fear)

    At least the Baltic states ... and then the organized provocation of people dressed in Russian uniforms and the invasion of NATO troops, the United States and then
    1. dmitriygorshkov
      dmitriygorshkov 24 March 2014 13: 29
      +1
      Quote: The same LYOKHA
      At least the Baltic states ... and then the organized provocation of people dressed in Russian uniforms and the invasion of NATO troops, the United States and then

      Holy! Holy! Holy!
      See you on Monday night! stop
  9. igorra
    igorra 24 March 2014 08: 36
    +7
    Tale, in life it is a little more complicated. If Natsik would be on their own. then yes, the plan may have rolled, but with the support of the West it will spill over into Syria or Libya. In my opinion, EuroMaidan was launched in order to bring war to our borders. Thugs who want to fight in the world are enough, so Putin is rightly silent.
  10. Sars
    Sars 24 March 2014 08: 37
    +6
    I do not quite agree with the author! Ukraine as a state has shown completely untenable.
    All (or almost all) presidents of Ukraine came with pro-Russian slogans, and after the election they showed us cookies. I do not think that Putin will step on the old rake.
  11. k19
    k19 24 March 2014 08: 37
    +2
    if fights with the junta begin, the EU will not fail to bring in NATO troops, then ours will have to intervene. and the uniform massacre will begin. but nobody wants a battle. so for sure everything will be resolved differently, without firing, at least large.
    1. alex-s
      alex-s 24 March 2014 09: 59
      +1
      If the fighting starts (God forbid), then first of all our paratroopers will block the western border of Ukraine so that no one gets in!
  12. major071
    major071 24 March 2014 08: 39
    +8
    An interesting article, in principle, I also think like the author. Putin did not play his game to the end. Now he is silent again, but his team is working. I hope everything goes as VV intended. Putin, while he did not make big mistakes. IMHO. hi
  13. buzuke
    buzuke 24 March 2014 08: 40
    +5
    there is a high probability. that the population loyal to Russia in the south-east of Ukraine will be subjected to repression. And Russia cannot allow this for image and moral reasons.

    it may sound cynical, but the more repressive the policy Kiev will pursue in the southeast of Ukraine, the more profitable it is for Russia. we cannot take anything, but we can pick up what has fallen. so you have to wait until the southeast itself falls off and then pick it up. well, it might help to fall off a bit. imperceptibly so ...
  14. Mihail177
    Mihail177 24 March 2014 08: 41
    +2
    Quote: platitsyn70
    They returned the anthem, returned the Crimea, let's return the KGB, the Tsereushniki are afraid of this word alone.
    I support, then Obamych’s dream will disappear altogether!
    Quote: Tersky
    Putin needs to observe a few NOT ... Only if all of them are observed, it will NOT be possible in the Ukraine party to Bardak Obama and the West to declare MAT.
    While everything is on schedule, we are waiting for a beautiful endgame!
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. alexng
      alexng 24 March 2014 12: 33
      0
      Then Obama will not only turn gray completely, but will also begin chronic incontinence. For his trick, after Putin saved him from shame, Putin this time will crush him like a cockroach. And this will be a lesson for others, so as not to spoil those who save them.
  15. Alex rain
    Alex rain 24 March 2014 08: 43
    0
    well, author. I agree with everything, and I see that way (I can’t write like that), if it is prophetic, I shake hands.
  16. mamont5
    mamont5 24 March 2014 08: 43
    +1
    "In this article, I want to try to analyze the further steps of Russia towards Ukraine. There is no doubt that these steps are planned. But what exactly is Putin planning to do in this party?"
    I think it depends on the moves of the opponents. There are several options.

    "how suddenly the protest moods in the South-East changed. If earlier the disorganized crowd chanted" Russia "and smashed the administrative buildings, now something different has appeared. Now posters with calls to Yanukovych began to appear. He is asked to return and restore order. The organization of the protest has been streamlined, obvious leaders seem to have disappeared (more precisely, they have ceased to "shine"), but the protests are intensifying. "
    And this is natural. The process is clearly coordinated. And at once along several lines.

    “The South-East will nominate its own presidential candidate. It will be a pro-Russian candidate. And Ukraine will link its fate with Russia for a long time, since the West will be the enemy of the new government, it may not even recognize it.
    This is how I see the further development of events. Maybe I'm mistaken in something, I am missing something. After all, I'm just an amateur, and the grandmaster plays for black. "
    Yes, the coming to power in Ukraine of a pro-Russian government through legitimate elections is the best option for us. Unfortunately, life is not chess, and it is impossible to foresee everything. Let's hope that everything will turn out in our favor, And our president will work as it should.
  17. shinobi
    shinobi 24 March 2014 08: 44
    +5
    Putin is playing the game like with a second Chechen company. And there’s no need to look for difficulties where they don’t exist. Everything is obvious. The new government and not power at all, they even understood it in the West. The right sector and the Maydan have already turned many against themselves. It remains only to these dooloms what excess bloody thread to stir up and that’s all. Polite people with the full approval of the people of Ukraine will scream all of them. This is what infuriates the EU and the USA, their puppets have no support, it’s a pity for them to pay money, and it’s a bit frightening to fight against them.
  18. Siberian19
    Siberian19 24 March 2014 08: 45
    +3
    I agree with the author! only for the whole rabble they will leave 2-3 regions headed by the lion, where they will drive all this scum and fence them off with barbed wire, let the West and the Poles deal with them themselves, I think the conversation will be short and tough! No one will fight against Russia in Europe !
  19. gandalf
    gandalf 24 March 2014 08: 49
    +4
    The option described is quite natural. Yanukovych in Rostov said he would return, hinted.
    But the enemy resists and will resist, sacrificing pieces on this board.

    Putin does not want big blood. It will be harmful to everyone in Ukraine, the West will begin to demonize Russia.
    And it is in this direction that there will be the greatest resistance, since the goal is the war of Ukraine with Russia. Hot war, this is pumping in the Ukrainian media.

    In 1917, there was the February, and then the October Revolution. Now, I think, faster, because Information is transmitted faster than 100 years ago.

    Now, I think, the main thing is to remove the info-blockade ... In this direction, the main work is underway, it seems to me.
  20. Vadim-Skeptic
    Vadim-Skeptic 24 March 2014 08: 50
    +2
    The likely plan of the grandmaster is simple, the difficulty at the initial stage is to introduce Yanukovych. Perhaps with an appeal to the army on submission to the commander in chief. The second difficulty is to select an intelligent candidate for the presidential election, not necessarily pro-Russian. The third difficulty is to prevent another Maidan after the presidential election. Pressure from the West will obviously be powerful, even to the extent that the election results are not recognized.
    The fourth difficulty, Yanukovych and the likely presidential candidate do not have leverage: the SBU is traitors, the government structure is ruined, the police are not able to maintain law and order in the Maidan regions.
  21. borisjdin1957
    borisjdin1957 24 March 2014 08: 53
    +3
    from the Don.
    Since May, an increase in the price of gas, electricity, fuel will warm ordinary ukrov not only in the East, but also in the West of Ukraine.
  22. ImPerts
    ImPerts 24 March 2014 08: 56
    +2
    Yes, take your time. And Yanukovych is already a figure of the past. It only legitimizes the actions of Russia and will give the new elections in Ukraine what the junta lacks.
    Everything goes to the disintegration of Ukraine into three parts, which has been described many times around the world. West, Center and South-East. The western one will either dissolve in the neighboring countries, or repeat the Baltic route. The center will become the new "Finland". and the South-East, together with the Crimea, will become part of the Russian Federation.
    But the main thing is not to rush. Revenge is a dish that is served cold. NATO will feel it.
  23. storog.cccp
    storog.cccp 24 March 2014 08: 56
    +5
    Putin began his game of chess with black, and then abruptly switched to "Chapaev" and won the game. It remains to win the tournament. Perhaps it will be checkers, where, as you know, you can win several pieces at a time.
  24. dark_65
    dark_65 24 March 2014 09: 02
    +2
    God give it! With all my heart.
  25. Quantum
    Quantum 24 March 2014 09: 03
    +3
    Chess is a fairly predictable game, but geopolitical chess is not.
    Suppose, stabilization moves in Ukraine are known in advance, list
    they do not make sense, each side has enough of them.
    The situation in Ukraine is so complicated that it’s quite
    It’s difficult. The United States relies on the oligarchs and the political quorum of Ukraine, not taking into account the interests of the majority of the population. The actions of the Russian Federation have not yet
    expressed clearly, since in Ukraine there are no leaders, there are no parties capable of
    to overthrow the junta. Protest movements are more small-town, albeit by
    the time they take seem organized.
    The presence of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the eastern regions creates a chance
    Resistance organizations: A group of officers who rebel against the junta, the most suitable resistance option that can support
    the protest of the civilian population has every chance of surviving and preserving itself from the actions of the SBU or other armed groups. This is the aggravation of the party and the development of subsequent moves!
    1. Tektor
      Tektor 24 March 2014 12: 29
      0
      Chess ... Chess ...
      Or maybe he plays a geopolitical judo? yes
  26. konvalval
    konvalval 24 March 2014 09: 06
    +1
    Quote: platitsyn70
    They returned the anthem, returned the Crimea, let's return the KGB, the Tsereushniki are afraid of this word alone.

    And iron Felix in place.
  27. kolyhalovs
    kolyhalovs 24 March 2014 09: 12
    +1
    Nonsense. First, the author writes about the impossibility of joining Ukraine, since it will immediately require a lot of money (which, by the way, is controversial in itself, because people live there "without money" now, but oh well), and then he describes the standard hurray scenario of actually capturing the entire Ukraine. At the same time, fantasizing about the fact that in the western regions, seeing the negative consequences of the junta, people will not mind when the new authorities come to "clean up" their friends, sons, mothers, etc. etc.
    In vain I just lost time reading this article.
  28. konvalval
    konvalval 24 March 2014 09: 12
    +2
    Now information has passed that the supply of electricity to Crimea is limited. So, further events in Ukraine will depend on the "authorities" of Ukraine and agreements with the OSCE.
  29. Owl
    Owl 24 March 2014 09: 12
    +1
    Indeed, joining the South-East of Ukraine will be very expensive. But! Do not forget that Russia has a national welfare fund and a reserve fund. As of March 1, 2014, the former has $ 87,25 billion, and the latter - 87,33 billion. Putin said at the very beginning of the Maidan that he knew that all this unrest was being prepared for 2015, respectively, the response was prepared in advance. And now the persistent feeling does not leave me that it’s not just like that that until now the funds of our two funds have not been spent anywhere. Can we protect some regions of Ukraine?
  30. pv1005
    pv1005 24 March 2014 09: 18
    +5
    Thirdly, the same gas pipe. Now it is not under our control, and therefore the West will take control over it. Control over the pipeline can be for the United States compensation for the defeat in the Crimea.


    Even if, purely hypothetically, they squeeze the pipe (that one) for themselves, then the gas (Russian) from this in that pipe will not appear by itself. So this is pure "From a dead donkey's ears."
  31. Oleg Sobol
    Oleg Sobol 24 March 2014 09: 28
    +1
    It is a thankless job to make forecasts, especially to make them at the level of the "game" of the VVP team.
    But the author wished it was his full right.
    I think that at this stage, there will be only informative work, before the official election of 25 in Ukraine (if there are any, it is by the way a question!)
    At the moment, a big split is already visible between open nationalists (who have already felt the taste of power and its "Freedom"), moderate nationalists (Yatsenyuk, Klitschko), the oligarchic elite, which plays its own game (Kolomoisky, Taruta) and the "gas supply queen" Tymoshenko.
    The National Guard is being created just as opposed to the Right Sector, this is already obvious.
    Ie 2 obvious "forces" are already visible, visible and their sponsors are visible and the forces they create.
    The author's version of the “pawn” of Yanukovych, I think, is generally untenable, it has already been played (politically) in Crimea and is no longer capable of.
    I think that no serious steps will be taken so far.
    It is necessary to establish work in the Crimea, it is necessary to deal with the West, and stretch out before the elections to the European Parliament, which will be held in May. But then there might be a reconfiguration of forces.
    And from this it will already be possible to look further.
  32. Curious
    Curious 24 March 2014 09: 30
    -1
    On the white side is Julia. Of those figures that are now playing in Ukraine, Julia is the most powerful and unpredictable. And it is also necessary to calculate it. This is my opinion, but I am not a chess player.
  33. Corporal
    Corporal 24 March 2014 09: 31
    +6
    Do not forget that Ukraine is just a way to divert our attention and strength from Syria and Iran, the chessboard is much more than it seems.
  34. Monk
    Monk 24 March 2014 09: 42
    +1
    The article is controversial, moreover, there is no analysis, just a statement of fact. In Ukraine, as practice shows, it is impossible to put a pro-Russian president. This is the first. And the second, it is now obvious that Ukraine, as a state, is no longer there, with all the ensuing consequences in the future.
  35. Jurkovs
    Jurkovs 24 March 2014 09: 44
    +6
    Chess is an ancient game and the first move is hidden in the darkness of centuries. So who is playing with what pieces is unclear, most likely they play alternately. The analysis is clearly incomplete. Let's remember that Ukraine had been going for days to sign an association with Europe and at that moment Putin made a very strong move. A zugzwang situation arose that continues to this day. Putin convinced Yanukovych and gave him money (from that moment on, Yanukovych is under Putin's control). The West did not have time to think, and in a hurry they launched a version of the Maidan, designed for the presidential elections, only the slogans were changed. In view of the false start of the Maidan, he lacked the strength to seize power and the West attracted the Natsiks from Galicia, there was simply no one else. Obviously, this move was calculated in advance. Putin switched to the gambit option. Since it is impossible to resist the Maidan peacefully, and no one intends to shed blood, Yanukovych dismisses the government at a time when, due to a legal collision, it is unclear which Constitution should be in effect, and he himself leaves the territory of Ukraine. Only the Rada and the Constitutional Court remained of the legitimate authorities. The Rada began to sit at gunpoint (and this was also miscalculated), and makes a gift to Putin, disperses the Constitutional Court. A situation has arisen that only Yanukovych has full legitimacy and that he is under the control of Russia. The annexation of the Crimea is the role of the gambit pawn. Now that Ukraine is flooded with observers, the "Legitimate President" plan is taking effect. In this positional game, observers will have to communicate with Yanukovych, who returned to Donetsk, thereby emphasizing the dual power and the crisis of statehood. The May 25 elections will be delegated. Further. Few people noticed that the Right Sector refused to join the National Guard and is currently creating its own army in Galicia. This black queen leaves Obama's control and makes its own move, introduces its formations to Kiev, thereby exposing the position of the West just in a foolish way. In response, Russia introduces troops to the South-East and the West has no trump cards to criticize. I don't know what will happen in the endgame. But Putin will not fight the Right Sector and shed the blood of our guys. Secondly, the mentality of the people of Kiev and the inhabitants of central Ukraine is such that instead of liberators we may turn out to be invaders, and Putin will not agree to this. Thirdly, we simply do not have enough money to maintain central Ukraine. But life does not end there, and when this very life of the people of Kiev turns into a nightmare and a concentration camp, then the players will sit down at the table again and make the next moves. By this time, I think Putin will have a lot of homework.
  36. Odysseus
    Odysseus 24 March 2014 09: 48
    +1
    Good article. But in the main I can not agree with the respected author - an attempt to "gnaw" several regions of the Southeast from the junta is futile. The junta and its Western masters will unambiguously perceive this as a war and will give the order to open fire. There will be a lot of blood, and blood will spill in Russian Novorossia. At the same time, the junta in Kiev will spin the "patriotic" card.
    Let's hope that the organized resistance movement of the Southeast can win without bloodshed, but frankly, there is little chance of it.
    In my opinion, the right way is the landing operation directly against Kiev. Moreover, the junta does not have real military force in Kiev, the operation can be carried out almost bloodlessly.
    This eliminates the very possibility of a large-scale war.
    Further steps are clear - the return of Yanukovych (as the legitimate president), a referendum on a new constitution, new elections (without Yanukovych's participation). Western Ukraine will certainly not obey Yanukovych, but this is not required.
    And New Russia and Little Russia form a new, Russia-friendly (but independent) Ukraine.
    1. Anper
      Anper 24 March 2014 11: 42
      0
      Quote: Odyssey
      The junta and its Western masters will clearly perceive this as a war.

      There is a version that Yanukovych, after fleeing Kiev to Kharkov at the congress, was supposed to force this congress to sign an appeal to Putin on the introduction of troops and, of course, to unleash a war, and then calmly go back to the Emirates (this is according to the scenario of American friends in exchange for a well-fed and As for the decisions of the congress, everything is shrouded in darkness, and Mr. PU made it clear that the troops would not be brought in. And American friends quickly merged Yanukovych, because already in Kharkov they did not give him permission to take off and, it seems, even the border guards were shooting. Janek left in a car "in an unknown direction", and surfaced in Russia. Question: how could this dildo be dragged across the border unnoticed, if the entire border was sharpened to catch the president, followed by ritual-death dances in the spirit of Ceausescu?
  37. MolGro
    MolGro 24 March 2014 09: 57
    0
    there are many ways and the game is running a lot!
    1 Ukraine
    2 Transnistria
    3 Syria
    4 central asia
    5 Ossetia Abkhazia
    All these regions will be part of the upcoming events!
  38. ImPerts
    ImPerts 24 March 2014 10: 07
    +1
    To warm up:
    1. Sid.74
      Sid.74 24 March 2014 10: 24
      0
      Quote: ImPerts
      To warm up:

      belay Well nifiga yourself! And they gave Alaska something !!! Let China protest 1 returns Alaska! laughing
      1. ImPerts
        ImPerts 24 March 2014 11: 56
        +1
        They traded Alaska for mainland China drinks
  39. Weniamin
    Weniamin 24 March 2014 10: 12
    0
    Well, God forbid that everything happens as the author describes.
  40. rkkasa xnumx
    rkkasa xnumx 24 March 2014 10: 23
    +1
    [quote] [/ quote] The solution to all the problems at once is to bring the government loyal to Russia to power in Kiev. And not just bringing to power, but also consolidating this loyal behavior for a long time.

    Well, Yanukovych was brought to power - a thief and a traitor. Another one?

    [Quote]Someone may argue that the solution could be to join the entire territory of Ukraine to Russia. But this is not so. Think about how much money Russia will have to spend.

    But who argues, of course it is better to chop off the oil and gas of the CRIMEA - for GAZPROM, than:
    [Quote] [/ quote]
    . And what funds will be needed for forty-three million? What tools will be discussed when it comes to the whole country?


    [Quote] [/ quote]And now there is no such free money in Russia.

    Where do they come from RUSSIA if they are from the OLIGARCHS
  41. Mviktor
    Mviktor 24 March 2014 10: 45
    0
    [quote = Vadim-Skeptic] The likely plan of the grandmaster is simple, the difficulty at the initial stage is to introduce Yanukovych. Perhaps with an appeal to the army on submission to the commander in chief.

    The problem is. that the leaders of the protest movement are arrested by Kiev, in this case the figure of Yanukovych is a good option, since he cannot be arrested and until December he is a legitimate president. The main thing is that his Ukrainian army support, the former army elite think on the side of Yanukovych. The Ukrainian military from the Crimea will be the main force to cleanse Ukraine from evil
  42. vinc
    vinc 24 March 2014 10: 57
    0
    The author speaks about the unprofitableness of joining the Crimea of ​​Russia and the whole (or part) of Ukraine? These are huge territories with their resources, enterprises, and cultural heritage. The world does not live by oil alone. And not just like that, the Americans started it all (Yugoslavia?)
  43. santush
    santush 24 March 2014 11: 03
    0
    Eh ... Your words would be yes to God in the ears ...
  44. Hey
    Hey 24 March 2014 11: 04
    -1
    Loyal power in Ukraine, only as a temporary measure. If you take, then take everything in its entirety. Not any separate areas. An abscess near the borders is not needed. I mean the separated western regions. The gas transmission system will be ours, there will no longer be a need to pay for the transfer, only operating costs. Immediately equating or raising the level to Russian, for the population, of course, will not work. But. This year, the level as under Yanukovych, followed by an increase of 20%. Installment plan 5 years. If it turns out to be hunter then before. This is if the South-East and its industry work effectively. Is it possible.
    So, what to take and only to take, because today loyal power and tomorrow it can be squirting.
  45. Quantum
    Quantum 24 March 2014 11: 07
    0
    The protest movements have few prospects, the SBU successfully cleans the leaders.
    If there is military support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, then there will be real
    the choice is a gambit in the game! Yanukovych cannot survive without army support.
    Conclusion: the troops of the Russian Federation do not enter, and the intelligence services to carry out proper work on
    organizing military support for the president by the forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
  46. Mikhail3
    Mikhail3 24 March 2014 11: 10
    +2
    Weak analysis. What will Russia get when it receives a puppet government in Ukraine? First, you have to invest billions, anyway. Otherwise, people's discontent cannot be restrained - Ukraine does not have the slightest reserves, everyone has been revealed. Only in this case Russia will be to blame (suddenly)! It is now blamed on us for all sins, starting from the original, while realizing it is a lie. And so it will be true - they took the lead and the people in poverty.
    What will Russia invest billions in? Following the Ukrainian logic, and nothing else. Everything that is possible will be stolen, and the rest will be given to people for the purchase of Western goods. How to prevent this? No way. All Ukrainian "elites" will stand up as a wall, defending their "right" to steal Moscow loans and not give anything back. They will be selflessly defended by the Ukrainian security forces - and in proportion, and hatred has not gone anywhere, and generally reluctant to work ... And the people? And the people will not care, because they planted money on them, it is possible to live like that ... and only the eternal Ukrainian nature will fan the spark of the usual discontent - they wanted to ... set things up and again kiss the thieves on the gums.
    Not an option. You still have to invest. Well, you have to invest in OWN. Moreover, in that which will quickly give a return - hardworking people, skilled, with experience ... In general, the southeast is for us. There is no other solution.
  47. nod739
    nod739 24 March 2014 11: 10
    +2
    well, somewhat odious but competent and logical enough,
    a few touches to the puzzle:

    Thirdly, the same gas pipe. Now it is not under our control, and therefore the West will take control over it. Control over the pipeline can be for the United States compensation for the defeat in the Crimea.
    the gas pipe has one end in Russia, and it also has a valve

    Fourth, there is a high probability. that the population loyal to Russia in the south-east of Ukraine will be subjected to repression.
    we already see that they also have teeth

    In payments on social. guarantees and pensions for two million people, finally. These are gigantic amounts.
    of two million people, not all pensioners and state employees, at least half of hard workers
    not to mention the fact that they already counted on the fingers - Crimea’s expenses are 0,1% —that is one thousandth of the federal, and the population - 1 / 70th

    And therefore, we can safely say that there is no question of any accession of Ukraine. She will not join anywhere, neither to us, nor to the West.
    but in the current situation they are not able to live together - against the background of a withering economy and decadence in all areas, we see a constant confrontation of faiths, worldviews, etc.

    So, we found the only way out. We need to bring to power the forces loyal to us.
    loyal to us - then not loyal to the west - again the problem is how to agree
    the power needs a 2nd "dad"


    Quote: Sid.74
    Even if the whole Crimea calls relatives, friends and acquaintances! And says that everything is fine with us! Not the fact that the Ukrainians will reach!

    I stopped almost calling, relatives in Kiev - they seem to understand, they seem to agree, but they don’t believe me almost anything, they say how and how can you know something there? everything is not as they show you, the main answer, although I say that I look at Euronews and Xinhua and Spiegel, etc. not to mention that the news is a slice, but you need to look into history and the geopolitical and economic alignment


    Quote: kolyhalovs
    First, the author writes about the impossibility of joining Ukraine, since it will immediately require a lot of money (which, by the way, is controversial in itself, because people live there "without money" now, but oh well)

    absolutely agree
    people with hands and many want can and work, the conductor is not enough

    Quote: Monk
    Do not forget that Ukraine is just a way to divert our attention and strength from Syria and Iran,

    still Venezuela

    Quote: Odyssey
    In my opinion, the right way is the landing operation directly against Kiev. Moreover, the junta does not have real military force in Kiev, the operation can be carried out almost bloodlessly.
    This eliminates the very possibility of a large-scale war.

    - this is the second way out of the situation
    and the first - the southeast itself will sweep away the junta and put its man, maybe even with the quiet help of Russia. and it’s optimal to introduce a federal structure, and the memory cannot be completely let go - otherwise there will be a microstate with NATO contingent distributing sneakers to local wickers (the equivalent of happiness), spitting bile at the mere mention of Russia
  48. Grandfather Victor
    Grandfather Victor 24 March 2014 11: 19
    0
    Well, for now the essence and the matter ... Regarding the gas pipe: why not sell gas to Europe on the border with Ukraine. They support the Kiev authorities, even shake with it all the problems of transit!
    1. Bakht
      Bakht 24 March 2014 12: 17
      0
      Quote: Grandpa Vitya
      Well, for now the essence and the matter ... Regarding the gas pipe: why not sell gas to Europe on the border with Ukraine. They support the Kiev authorities, even shake with it all the problems of transit!

      The idea is good, but difficult to implement. Even at the time of the first Maidan, when Yushchenko was led to power, I had a polemic on this issue with Ukrainian colleagues. Not here on another site. The fact is that not all gas flowing through the pipe is Russian. There is also a share of Turkmen gas. The scheme is so confused that without a half liter you can not figure it out. Of course, payment at the border looks very attractive. But there are a bunch of acts and agreements. And also the Energy Charter, signed by Russia. But not ratified. There are too many letters and all in small print. Do not overpower.
  49. Platov
    Platov 24 March 2014 11: 20
    0
    The author plus almost everything agrees with him that there is a large-scale game on several boards at the same time and a move on one board affects the move on another board. The fact that Putin plays black on the edge of the blackboard, the grandmother said for two, we just don’t know how many hidden moves were, we don’t know and will never know. The fact that Putin gives direction to his team to calculate the moves and pull the right strings for the right time, do not go to the grandmother. But the accession of the outskirts to Russia will not, let the nodes themselves be built by our wise leadership, they will bear the joy and sorrow of self-reliance on their hump.
  50. Good_Taxist
    Good_Taxist 24 March 2014 11: 31
    0
    Quote: I_VOIN_I
    There will be no division of Ukraine; Russia cannot yet digest the East. There will be federalization, I think. But the return of Yanuk should be supported by the EU, otherwise there will be a civil war.

    Quote: k19
    EU will not fail to introduce NATO troops

    Quote: k19
    EU will not fail to introduce NATO troops

    eu !? NATO troops !? Even some nonsense! Forgotten the troops of the Attecs and the Golden Horde !? and there are still other military formations in the EU and NATO - all sorts of "minorities" are different, and Count Dracula somewhere in Europe is bloodthirsty!
    Vobschem HORROR! Gee-gee :-)