Military Review

We speak - the Crimea, we mean - Transnistria, or Moldova Testing for stress resistance

31
After the decision of the Crimeans and Sevastopol residents about the entry of these regions into Russia and after the decision to join Crimea and Sevastopol into the Russian Federation is already the Russian side, serious attention is focused on other territories of the former USSR, which in turn do not want to be under the jurisdiction of the central authorities of that state, in which they are administratively and geographically included. One of such territories is the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic.


We speak - the Crimea, we mean - Transnistria, or Moldova Testing for stress resistance


18 March it became known that the Speaker of the Transnistrian parliament Mikhail Burla officially addressed his Russian counterpart (State Duma Speaker) Sergey Naryshkin with a proposal to consider the possibility of including Transnistria in the Russian Federation in the image and likeness of Crimea and Sevastopol on the basis of future changes in Russian legislation. Mikhail Burla’s address in Transdniestria is associated with those legislative innovations of Russia, according to which the territory of other states can be taken as special subjects of the Russian Federation in special cases: for example, if the central authorities are illegitimate or these authorities are not effective ... Here it is necessary to recall that this interpretation The bill was proposed by deputies from the "Fair Russia". True, one thing is interpretation, and another thing is the final law, which is only being prepared for adoption.

It should be particularly noted that in 2006, the Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Respublika held its own referendum, according to the results of which 98,08% voted for the turnaround of the Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Respublika and the subsequent free accession of Pridnestrovie to the Russian Federation? In addition, Transnistria declared its independence from the Moldavian SSR as early as 78,55, after which a bloody conflict began, which today can be extinguished with the help of Russian peacekeepers.

It turns out that there seems to be all the prerequisites for the entry of the Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Respublika into the Russian Federation: the will of the citizens, the official appeal of the authorities about this possibility, the presence of the Crimean precedent. However, in the Transnistrian case, the situation is still not unambiguous, and there are several reasons for such ambiguity.

On the territory of the PMR, out of about 510 thousands of inhabitants, about 200 thousands of people have Russian citizenship, and 160 thousands are ethnic Russians. But…

The main reason for the possible difficulties associated with the hypothetical entry of the Transdnistrian Moldavian Republic into the Russian Federation is related to the fact that today, from a political point of view, Moldova and Ukraine are completely different countries. Ukraine is a vivid example of a state without a state power, in which even elementary constitutional norms are not observed. Today’s Ukraine is a collection of territories with pseudo-authorities in the center that do not control the course of the political process.

In Moldova, the situation is fundamentally different from a legal point of view. In Chisinau, which claims rights to Transnistria, there are legitimate authorities. And this legitimacy is hardly questioned. Yes, let it be individuals, many of whom, without a twinge of conscience, are in favor of joining the European Union as soon as possible, at least at the level of the Romanian province, but this does not negate the fact of their legitimate election and legitimate work in their posts. They may not cause sympathy in Russia (and I dare to suppose that they do not cause sympathy in Russia in the overwhelming majority of citizens), but you cannot build international politics on sympathy or antipathy. Apologizing in advance for a paraphrase of the famous utterance of the American president, it turns out something like: they are certainly sons of bitches, but they are legitimate sons of bitches ...

Then the question arises that in the draft law of the mentioned spravorossov there is something about the effectiveness of the central state authorities. But here again there is a snag: who exactly and by what patterns will determine the effectiveness of the authorities of this or that foreign state? If we proceed from the purely subjective positions of the average Russian, then we can say that today, at least in half of the states of the world, the authorities are, to put it mildly, ineffective. But the point is that this position is subjective. From our point of view - they are “none”, from the point of view of the citizens of this country - the authorities are “very even nothing” ... So go find a formula by which someone is effective and someone is not.

It is quite another matter if the Moldovan authorities as such are completely marginalized, but recall that the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic on the basis of a transparent referendum declared its own independence, and before the referendum (adopted the declaration of independence in the aforementioned 1990). By the way, the independence of the PMR is partially recognized. To date, the TMR as a full sovereign state recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia does not seem to recognize the official independent status of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, but if it recognizes the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, then, as they say, there is something to think about ... And if there is something to think about, then there is a healthy meaning and all kinds of expediency, starting with the territorial. And now a few words about the expediency, and about the expediency for the Transdniestrians themselves.

Already today, according to reports coming from Tiraspol, the MTR was in a state of partial blockade by Ukraine. The vice-premier of the Russian government Dmitry Rogozin, who is the special representative of the president of the Russian Federation on Transnistria, also spoke on this issue:

In fact, Ukraine today declared a blockade on Transnistria. Today, the border between Ukraine and Transnistria is closed for all men from 18 to 65 years with Russian citizenship. This is, in fact, a gross violation of the status of Ukraine as a participant in the negotiation process as a guarantor of peacekeeping. Isolation of Transnistria with so many Russian citizens - there are 200 thousand Russian citizens and 70 thousand Ukrainian citizens. What is Ukraine thinking about? Not at all clear
- conveys the words of Rogozin ITAR-TASS.

It can be assumed that self-proclaimed Ukrainian authorities thus “avenge” Russia for Crimea, but in the end it is ordinary Transnistrians who suffer. As can be assumed, if today Russia will accept the PMR, then the residents of the republic at this stage will hardly be better off from such a decision. The main reason is that the PMR is territorially sandwiched between Moldova and Ukraine. With all the desire for close integration, today's conditions, and this is sad, are such that Russia will either have to decide on tank a march through Ukrainian territories to “cut through the corridor” to Tiraspol (which, of course, can only be dreamed of in a nightmare), or tune in to much more pragmatic positions. Without a political dialogue with Ukraine, resolving the issue with Transnistria is extremely difficult. But the whole question is with whom exactly in Ukraine such a dialogue? With Kiev impostors, or what? ..

In this regard, the situation in the south and east of Ukraine is extremely interesting. If the current Ukrainian "power" continues its destructive work or, even worse, is replaced by outright extremists from the same "Right Sector" (and there are prerequisites for that today), and if the West continues to indulge those whom they chose as their protégés in Kiev, then Transnistria will not have to wait long for full-fledged integration with the Russian Federation ... The South and East of Ukraine themselves may well become if not an independent state, then, at least, completely independent subjects of the new federalized Ukraine, which can decide with whom to cooperate and on what terms. If the situation in Ukraine calms down, and quite adequate people turn out to be in power after 25 May (which, frankly speaking, is hard to believe in the light of the new Ukrainian rhetoric), then there will be no obstacles (at least territorial) for the integration of Transnistria with Russia.

In general, there is an opinion that today everything depends not only on the rigidity of Russia, but on the behavior of the West, Ukraine and Moldova. If someone from this “troika” starts to fasten biceps to his hands and demonstrate them to Moscow, then no territorial obstacles will prevent the MRT from entering the Russian Federation (after all, there are also problems with the message of the “mainland” part of Russia if the Lithuanians are beginning to “play the fool”, but this does not cancel the fact of finding a region within the Russian Federation).

Should the statement by Moldovan President Timofti be considered a threat to the Russian Federation:

Any attempt by the self-proclaimed republic of Transnistria to follow the example of the Crimea and join Russia will be a mistake.


Well, the demonstration of even overhead biceps is clearly not pulling, rather like a squeak denoting the fact of presence, so as not to crush in passing ... Yes, and the West, realizing that today it is better not to provoke Russia, too, as much as possible, restrained, sparkling little eyes and watching the course of events from a deep hole after its notable fiasco with the Crimea ...
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  1. Chifka
    Chifka 20 March 2014 07: 56
    +16
    It is time to create a register of territories that are candidates for joining Russia, a special ministry and a new branch of the armed forces - "polite people of rapid response." And to develop a schedule - at least one territory in six months. Google and Yandex will have the worst ... Change the cards every six months.
    1. mojohed2012
      mojohed2012 20 March 2014 08: 44
      +4
      Polite people to equip a warrior with heavy equipment and modern equipment. Attach aviation and missile weapons. Erase insignia from airplanes. Stars and numbers from armored vehicles.
      Polite people to declare an army who wants to join the RF region.
  2. mirag2
    mirag2 20 March 2014 07: 58
    +3
    This topic is very slippery for Europe - they actually cut off Kosovo from Serbia.
    And we grabbed the Crimea ...
    And now what? -Now Scotland scares Britain, and Catalonia in Spain, and Wallonia in Belgium, and someone else ....
    And now recognizing the Crimea as part of Russia, we will have to admit the following separation of countries.
    Well, I say, if the world changes with Crimea, then, as in 1945 ...
    1. mamont5
      mamont5 20 March 2014 08: 34
      +4
      Quote: mirag2
      Well, I’m saying, if it’s going to do something with Crimea,

      And what can not "fuck" with the Crimea? It was still possible to doubt this five days ago, but not now.
    2. 222222
      222222 20 March 2014 11: 28
      +5
      mirag2 (3) RU Today, 07:58 New "And we grabbed the Crimea ..."
      ????????????? .....
      "Well I say, if the world will change with the Crimea" ""
      ...... ?????????? .....
      ... you need to follow the bazaar ...
      ..... in the Crimea there was a referendum ..
  3. parus2nik
    parus2nik 20 March 2014 08: 06
    +6
    Should the statement by Moldovan President Timofti be considered a threat to the Russian Federation:
    Any attempt by the self-proclaimed republic of Transnistria to follow the example of the Crimea and join Russia will be a mistake.

    I must admit the President of Moldova Timofti is right ... Time, time is on the side of Russia .. Russia can’t do without Southeast Ukraine .. It will become Southeast Russian, then you can think about PMR .. Yes and it’s necessary that there would be a wave after Crimea subsided .. With Crimea is not yet finished ..
    1. washi
      washi 20 March 2014 15: 49
      +1
      Quote: parus2nik
      I must admit the President of Moldova Timofti is right ... Time, time is on the side of Russia .. Russia can’t do without Southeast Ukraine .. It will become Southeast Russian, then you can think about PMR .. Yes and it’s necessary that there would be a wave after Crimea subsided .. With Crimea is not yet finished ..

      There is still Gagauzia.
      Yes, and there is hope that Odessa is not completely bored.
      And next to Transnistria Transcarpathian region.
  4. mountain
    mountain 20 March 2014 08: 17
    +6
    It’s good that there are strategists and politicians, give me free rein, that’s what I would do. Everyone should be in place.
  5. Evgeniy-111
    Evgeniy-111 20 March 2014 08: 21
    +1
    Can you reach them on the Dniester? Or does it have no international waters (or what is it called)?
    1. sergei23
      sergei23 20 March 2014 22: 14
      +1
      The Dniester flows into the Dniester estuary (Odessa region), which in turn flows into the Black Sea on the territory of the same Odessa region. Until the inhabitants of Odessa begin to act, Russia will not get through to us.
  6. mamont5
    mamont5 20 March 2014 08: 33
    +1
    Yes, it’s not time yet, but that doesn’t mean that never.
    But the Moldovan president could have been silent.
    1. andrejwz
      andrejwz 20 March 2014 12: 20
      0
      Quote: mamont5
      But the Moldovan president could have been silent.

      And who then learns that there is such a country - Moldova, and even under the leadership of President Timofti (in my name there is one extra letter).
  7. free
    free 20 March 2014 08: 46
    0
    there will be a holiday on our street, we will wait, we will be patient .................... GLORY OF RUSSIA
  8. inkass_98
    inkass_98 20 March 2014 09: 00
    +6
    Quote: mirag2
    the world will change like in xnumx ...

    In the 45 year, no one was especially against the USSR, because one could really see a wash of the IS-3 and boots in the Atlantic waters in the Lisbon region. Nobody could compare with that army.
    Times have changed, partners in the negotiation process have also changed. With PMR, everything is very complicated, an enclave is a problem area in a hostile environment. There are few ways out - leave everything as it is (for the time being) or change the tone of those around you. And a change in tonality can be achieved either by including those around you as part of your territories, or by changing the leadership there. So everything is very ambiguous. We have not enough forces and means now.
  9. MolGro
    MolGro 20 March 2014 09: 01
    +4
    An example is shown, they will now act.
  10. Ekrov
    Ekrov 20 March 2014 09: 35
    +3
    I think that in Ukraine everything must be done right first.
    1. 222222
      222222 20 March 2014 12: 26
      +1
      Ekrov RU Today, 09:35 AM
      I think first we need to do everything right in Ukraine. "
      .. it’s right to move Odessa and Nikolaev from the sea to the north. ?? .joke..
  11. Max otto
    Max otto 20 March 2014 09: 43
    +3
    Yes, do not give a damn about the Romanian authorities in Moldova, it is necessary to recognize the independence of Transnistria and all. It won’t be any worse, and there you can think about becoming a member.
  12. Mikado
    Mikado 20 March 2014 10: 08
    +2
    "In Moldova, the situation is fundamentally different from a legal point of view"

    It doesn’t matter what the legal situation is, whether the government is effective there or not. No legitimacy will save them if they think up something bad there. In difficult life situations, a person must act as his conscience and his convictions suggest.
  13. Stasi
    Stasi 20 March 2014 11: 33
    -1
    In principle, so that Transdniestria could become part of Russia, a deal should be made with the Romanians: you take Moldova to us, and we will bring Transnistria to Fr. Zmeiny, who Romania took from Ukraine. Anyway, sooner or later, Moldova will unite with Romania, so I’m sure that the Romanians will agree to such a deal. A referendum should also be held in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, there should be no problems with them since Russia recognized their independence.
    1. Riperbahn
      Riperbahn 21 March 2014 00: 11
      0
      Romania would assimilate Moldova long ago. And the Moldavians have long been asking and the Romanians for. But here's the thing: Romania does not need a impoverished Moldova without the economically and industrially more developed Transnistria.
  14. Klim podkova
    Klim podkova 20 March 2014 12: 00
    +4
    Transnistria is blocked by land borders with Ukraine on Moldova. If only the 1 meter of the common border with Russia or the 1 meter was landlocked, the conversations would be completely different. Even if the Russian Federation recognizes the PMR, a few weeks of complete blockade (not even months!) - and the republic will perish.
    It all depends on the policy of the authorities of the Odessa region (about Ukraine as a whole, we can not speak)
    1. Sma11
      Sma11 20 March 2014 14: 40
      +1
      It all depends on the policy of the authorities of Odessa region

      And also Nikolaev, Kherson, etc. In short from the South and East of Ukraine.
  15. Prapor Afonya
    Prapor Afonya 20 March 2014 14: 45
    0
    Quote: mojohed2012
    Polite people to equip a warrior with heavy equipment and modern equipment. Attach aviation and missile weapons. Erase insignia from airplanes. Stars and numbers from armored vehicles.
    Polite people to declare an army who wants to join the RF region.

    Do not erase anything, let the whole world know who to fear! Good must be with fists!
  16. Leshka
    Leshka 20 March 2014 18: 56
    +1
    First you need to connect the South-East and then the PMR smile
    1. sergei23
      sergei23 20 March 2014 22: 18
      +2
      Guys, we are really looking forward to this! We are the second Crimea!
  17. alone
    alone 20 March 2014 22: 12
    0
    And rightly say that, appetite comes with eating.
  18. on it
    on it 20 March 2014 23: 09
    0
    Obama to John Carey:
    “I didn’t understand something: for those 5
    billions of dollars that they perished in Ukraine on the Maidan, are we - the Russian Crimea
    bought it? " sad in Transnistria another $ 5 billion yes
  19. siberalt
    siberalt 21 March 2014 01: 17
    0
    If the Ukronazis do not arrange a massacre in the PMR, then the exit is only through Odessa. But, first, someone should at least recognize the PMR as a state, and not a national community. I don’t think that the transition to Russian laws is politically unrelated and arbitrary. Some riddles, damn it! laughing It seems that clues will begin this year.
  20. NEXUS
    NEXUS 21 March 2014 02: 26
    +4
    Quote: Chifka
    It is time to create a register of territories that are candidates for joining Russia, a special ministry and a new branch of the armed forces - "polite people of rapid response." And to develop a schedule - at least one territory in six months. Google and Yandex will have the worst ... Change the cards every six months.
    the situation has not yet ripened for the entry of the PMR into Russia ... but ... there’s no smoke without fire ... and the Moldovan authorities tensed for good reason ... and now let's see, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, and perhaps most of the former Soviet republics, which frankly or from the suspender barked at his big brother, have now quieted down ... the game has begun ... and in this perspective, no one can calculate it, maybe the player is one-Putin ... but I think that Crimea is only the beginning ... Russia is returning what it was forced to give to 90 ... this is logical
  21. Cristall
    Cristall 21 March 2014 02: 30
    0
    Yeah ... I expressed the opinion that Kiev "strengthened" Odessa well. And gingerbread and guest performers ..
    Because Odessa should become a Crimea - there is no south, no sea, coverage all along the south with great consequences.
    Fantastic scenario of course. But Kiev immediately took care not to lose the key of the south and the sea (the last shred and port, by the way, which are often visited by NATO ships)
    Line Kharkov Lugansk Dnepropetrovsk Odessa. Middle solid prokievskogo edges junk .. Odessa junta can not be lost - well, nothing.
    Now everything will be used - both promises and reassurance. I don’t know how and what will happen. Odessa is a fairly peaceful city, unlike the Donbass. It is not easy to loosen the inhabitants of Odessa who live just a little better than the rest (the most expensive city with Kiev in Ukraine).
    You understand that Odessa got along with any government - and the most that touched me much is the language law. As soon as the clowns touched it went stocks.
    In general, of course, Odessa is problematic for the Natsiks ... we have little patriotism ... we are "Jewish communists" and we have a lot of Lenins and monuments to the regimes.
  22. razved
    razved 22 March 2014 16: 48
    0
    One can also speak about the legitimacy of the Moldovan authorities for a long time and cast doubt on the legality of their coming to power. To whom it is interesting, I can tell separately.