Military Review

Maydanizatsiya fraternal republics

43



The scenario of the Ukrainian coup is a novelty for the post-Soviet space: so far no such putsch has occurred in any of the CIS countries. Typically, residents of the fraternal republics perceive the “color revolution” as mass (and in some cases peaceful) protests timed to coincide with the next elections. But in Kiev, the coup did not follow the pattern: it seems that one of the variants of the “Arab Spring”, adapted for the states of the former Soviet Union, was successfully tested in Ukraine. Are similar scenarios possible in other CIS countries, and if so, how will the West try to destabilize the ex-USSR?

Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan: Maidan mixed with Islamism

According to political scientists, the most vulnerable to coups inspired from abroad are located in Central Asia. The capabilities of the leaders of the Central Asian republics are limited by financial difficulties. In addition, Central Asia is one of the most important areas of American foreign policy, a region rich in mineral resources and capable of becoming a springboard for an offensive against China and Russia.

The most likely candidates for destabilization are Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. Everything is clear with Kyrgyzstan: the country's economy is in decline, most of the population is below the poverty line, coups d'état have long become a part of everyday life. The next uprising, as it was in 2005 and 2010, will surprise no one. By the way, next year the current five-year political cycle will end in Kyrgyzstan, and perhaps the next coup will take place.

The United States is likely to come out in support of the Kyrgyz insurgents, since the current government of the republic demands that Washington evacuate the American military base Manas as soon as possible. But the United States wants to stay in Central Asia: in the plans of American officials - the redevelopment of the military base, and not its liquidation.

With Kazakhstan everything is more complicated: the economy of the republic is developing steadily, many oil and gas fields are located in the country. In order to destabilize the country, foreign sponsors will have to make some efforts. Any casual excuse for an uprising, as in Kyrgyzstan, will not be enough: in order to achieve the desired result, it will be necessary to deliberately "process" Kazakh society for several years.

Such work is already actively carried out. In Kazakhstan, there are small cells of Islamist groups that organize terrorist attacks and try to sow panic in major cities using disinformation methods. Fundamentalist organizations are particularly active in southern Kazakhstan, where the majority of the population are Muslims. In the north, on the contrary, Christians live, and many of them are Russians by nationality.

Therefore, in its consequences, a coup in Kazakhstan will be much worse than in Ukraine, because if radical Islamists come to power in Astana (or will command Kazakh officials, as Ukrainian Bandera do), persecution of Kazakhstan’s citizens will begin religious grounds.

The main thing in Central Asia - do not show weakness!

Also in line for destabilization are Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. In Uzbekistan, there are problems with the continuity of power: the president of the republic, Islam Karimov, has not yet found a worthy replacement, although he is in respectable age. In the ruling elite, a serious conflict has matured, and officials are involved in backstage confrontation with each other for the right to inherit the country.

Against this background, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan can return to the republic — an influential group of Islamic fundamentalists that has found refuge in the territory of Afghanistan. During the war against the US occupiers, the IMU fighters gained a wealth of experience and found many allies - the same obsessive Islamist internationalists.

The situation in Turkmenistan is also unstable. The new leader of the country, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, is not such a tough and confident ruler as his predecessor Saparmurat Niyazov was. There are very high risks that the President of Turkmenistan will not cope with internal and external challenges, especially in conditions when the country observes strict neutrality and, as a result, it has few allies, while Turkmen oil is a lure for many.

As for Tajikistan, any Maidan for him is like death. The republic survived the civil war, and in order to plunge it into chaos, just a few brutally murdered inhabitants of a provincial town, which in 90-s were in opposition to the central government, are enough. For example, a similar scenario was nearly implemented in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region in the 2012 year.

Is “polloch” possible?

Belarus in Europe is often viewed as the next candidate for a “revolution”. However, according to experts, such assumptions are completely unfounded. Alexander Lukashenko himself understands this: he accurately described the true causes of the Ukrainian crisis when he said that the collapse of the economy in Ukraine was caused by the rampant corruption and the most serious confrontation between politicians. Also, the President of Belarus gave a negative assessment of the entrepreneurial activity of the eldest son Viktor Yanukovych.

Unlike the disgraced leader of Ukraine, Alexander Lukashenko can boast that his country is stable and does not expect the same sad end, as the southern neighbor. The economy functions normally, there is an effective fight against corruption, the sons of the officials do not create their own business empire. For all entrepreneurs there are uniform rules of the game, there are no “holes” in the budget. And this is in the context of sanctions from the European Union!

Belarusians are not ready for their Maidan: popular discontent is unlikely to reach such a level when the inhabitants of Belarus en masse will take to the streets of the capital and regional centers. Those small groups of militants who are trained in special camps will not be a decisive factor, as it was in Ukraine: because of the small number of possible demonstrations, the tactics of barricades worked out in Kiev are unlikely to work.

However, on the eve of the 2015 presidential election of the year, Alexander Lukashenko promptly drafted a law on martial law and submitted it to parliament. The new law significantly expands the powers of the head of state in the suppression of armed insurrections, riots and other anti-government protests.

The best anti-vaccination

Belarus is one of the strongest links in the post-Soviet space, but it has little strategic importance, and its destabilization will be just a pleasant bonus for the West, but by no means the main goal.

The main task for the United States and Europe, of course, is the overthrow of the constitutional order in Russia. It is impossible to do this through Belarus for the simple reason that Alexander Lukashenko, with the support of the Kremlin, will easily restore order in his homeland. The easiest way to get to the borders of Russia through Kazakhstan: if this country is on the verge of a split, you will need to make incredible efforts to put out the fire of war.

Kazakhstan is the key to Russia. In turn, the key to Kazakhstan is Kyrgyzstan, one of the most vulnerable fraternal republics. If a coup occurs here, the Middle East scenario is not excluded, when huge Algeria, Egypt, and Syria rebelled after a small Tunisia.

Russia is taking measures aimed at strengthening the military presence in Kyrgyzstan. Thus, Russian diplomats are gradually “squeezing” the American airbase “Manas” out of this country, and in exchange for the departed foreigners in the republic it is planned to build up the Russian military grouping. Thanks to this, Moscow will be able to prevent another senseless and bloody uprising, and for this it is not necessary to shoot anyone, you just have to play with muscles a little. The presence of Russian troops in any state in the post-Soviet space is a significant psychological factor, even if the military remain neutral.

Political and economic integration in the post-Soviet space is equally important. The revival of the allied structures is the only alternative to “maydanization”. In practice, residents of the CIS countries should make a choice between economic stability, prosperity and confidence in the future on the one hand and the most serious destabilization under the guise of "democratization" on the other. Crimeans were the first to realize this and made their civilization choice. It remains to wait for the rest.
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  1. mabuta
    mabuta 18 March 2014 07: 36
    +19
    With each fight we are smarter. And Maidans appear where the driver is. Http: //topwar.ru/uploads/images/2014/980/eawi939.jpg
    1. Canep
      Canep 18 March 2014 08: 16
      +14
      The most likely candidates for destabilization are Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.
      If not for the NAS here (in Kazakhstan), everything would have blazed for a long time. Now we have simply banned parties on a national, ethnic and religious basis. Nationalism of the 90s goes out of fashion, and the environment makes both Russians and Kazakhs think about the friendship of peoples. Foreign non-governmental organizations in Kazakhstan were not found by me. But in Kyrgyzstan, coups happen on schedule, there is a mess.
    2. saveall
      saveall 18 March 2014 08: 41
      +13
      Georgians used to make a good short film about it. Nevertheless, this did not prevent them from turning into a flock of sheep going for slaughter.
    3. Baloo
      Baloo 20 March 2014 11: 35
      +1
      Euromaidanyuki in Kiev are not much different from the same scum and the gullible and naive who joined them in the same Libya, Syria, Iraq and around the world. Respect to the authors and performers of the opposite tactical decision in the Crimea. "Polite people", appearing at the right moment from nowhere. Respect.
  2. Dragon-y
    Dragon-y 18 March 2014 07: 45
    0
    "The East is a delicate matter ..." (C)
  3. ilya_82
    ilya_82 18 March 2014 07: 52
    +3
    If corruption in Ukraine, then in Central Asia, corruption cubed
    1. Canep
      Canep 18 March 2014 08: 30
      +12
      Quote: ilya_82
      Central Asia, cubed corruption

      I would not say. Specialists from Ukraine came to our factory in Ekibas for permanent work, so I listened to them and came to the conclusion that in Kazakhstan there is no corruption at all in Kazakhstan, at first I was bothered by their constant desire to find someone who could be bribed. For example, you need to take the child to the hospital, they ask who it is better to contact, so that everything is normal. When they learned that a traffic cop can not pay a bribe, he will even be glad, then they began to hysteria. That you don’t have to donate money at school, that they don’t get it anyway, the same people say how you live here, without bribes. How did you find out that the son is studying for free at college and still receives a scholarship - how much did he pay?
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. Humpty
        Humpty 18 March 2014 09: 39
        +1
        The guys from Ukraine probably don’t know the local traditions and customs. Therefore, they formulate questions in the wrong direction. If they have an irresistible desire to stick a bribe to someone, then they need to be able to get an approach. a laughing stock for the bribe taker and he will not have a gesheft with them.
        1. Serg65
          Serg65 18 March 2014 10: 33
          +6
          Hi Sash, I totally agree with you! In the east, dating and connections are more valued.
          1. Humpty
            Humpty 18 March 2014 10: 54
            +3
            Quote: Serg65
            Hi Sash, I totally agree with you! In the east, dating and connections are more valued.


            Hello, Sergey ! You yourself understand, it’s impossible to speak directly about some things literally.
            1. Serg65
              Serg65 18 March 2014 12: 04
              +7
              My good friends wrote out a young specialist from Moscow, so he began to introduce Moscow methods of work without taking into account the local specifics of the market. As a result, the company nearly fell apart. Well, according to the article ... if Kyrgyzstan is interested in the creators of the revolutions, then only as a corridor towards Uzbekistan, Uzbekistan will explode, the whole of Central Asia will explode.
    2. UzRus
      UzRus 18 March 2014 10: 17
      +7
      If corruption in Ukraine, then in Central Asia, corruption cubed - Nothing like this. In terms of corruption in the CIS, the first place belongs to Ukraine, the second to Uzbekistan.
  4. Kazakh
    Kazakh 18 March 2014 07: 53
    +8
    Ukraine has successfully tested one of the options for the "Arab Spring",
    A dubious conclusion if a competent president was present in Ukraine, nothing would burn out. The proof of this is 3 months trampling along the Maidan and the unbroken golden eagle.
    1. cdrt
      cdrt 19 March 2014 14: 24
      0
      Quote: Kazakh
      Ukraine has successfully tested one of the options for the "Arab Spring",
      A dubious conclusion if a competent president was present in Ukraine, nothing would burn out. The proof of this is 3 months trampling along the Maidan and the unbroken golden eagle.


      In Belarus, the president is competent.
      But there are actually reasons for dissatisfaction (in the form of extortions by law enforcement agencies) there, although, of course, there are many many fewer than there were in Ukraine.
      But ... the well-being of Belarus is closely tied to the Russian market. The problems with us will begin during the upcoming (possible) economic war, and it will hit them very hard.
      Well .... timely orders to the security forces to disperse are not a panacea.
      As they said there, with bayonets one can ascend to the throne, but it is inconvenient to sit on it.

      But the fact that Maidan and the current state is a vaccine for Belarusians is a fact
  5. Sanyht
    Sanyht 18 March 2014 07: 56
    +7
    BELARUS !!! MY MOTHERLAND!!! CLASS !!!
  6. dark_65
    dark_65 18 March 2014 08: 03
    +7
    The East only understands and accepts power; no one opened its mouth to the white king.
  7. KOH
    KOH 18 March 2014 08: 07
    +2
    All of these countries, except Belarus, flirt with either (+) ohm, or with (-) ohm, and everyone knows that when (+) comes in contact with (-), it turns out big Baabaah !!! fellow
  8. Vitaly Anisimov
    Vitaly Anisimov 18 March 2014 08: 09
    +1
    The Anglo-Saxons will now think ten times before arranging another "controlled house" near the borders of Russia .. bully We found an antidote! Look Obama the ocean will not save you, we can also arrange a maidan on your continent ..
  9. hhhhhhh
    hhhhhhh 18 March 2014 08: 12
    +4
    The Americans took away from the common people the opportunity for peaceful protest. They use any protest: environmental, lace panties, the road through the forest for their own purposes to establish their order.
  10. Name
    Name 18 March 2014 08: 14
    +7
    "The fifth column" to the nail, like a louse, not paying attention to the cries of the Germans, Novodvorsk, Latin, Sobchaks, Gozmans, Makarevichs and their owners; close "ECHO" and "Rains",make Fear!
    1. NORILCHANIN
      NORILCHANIN 18 March 2014 11: 09
      0
      It’s easier to either put or send in exile to the geyropu or to the Maidan. If they want to speak, let them scream there, in Russia we should have QUIET otherwise they will DIFFERENT!
    2. NORILCHANIN
      NORILCHANIN 18 March 2014 11: 09
      0
      It’s easier to either put or send in exile to the geyropu or to the Maidan. If they want to speak, let them scream there, in Russia we should have QUIET otherwise they will DIFFERENT!
  11. Humpty
    Humpty 18 March 2014 08: 20
    +6
    The plug in the barrel of radicalization Wed.Asia-Karimov. Uzbekistan borders on everyone in the region. The destabilization of Uzbekistan could become a huge problem. Without exception, all newly-found states in the region, either in whole or in part, were created on the territory of the Uzbek-Tajik khanates, at the beginning of the 20th century they were still considered one people.
    It is not realistic to destabilize Kazakhstan under the orange scenario in the medium term.
    Regarding Kyrgyzstan, the next coup does not surprise anyone.
  12. buzer
    buzer 18 March 2014 08: 28
    +3
    article minus !!! I don’t know about other republics, but radical Islamism will not pass in Kazakhstan. Of course, I’m not such a BIG specialist in the fraternal republics as the author of this article, but I’ll answer for my country .... Radical Islamism, like other manifestations of radicalism in terms of religiosity, is not inherent and not acceptable for representatives of a nomadic civilization !!! The only factors that could lead to a situation like the Ukrainian one are either social or national !!! But even the most prosperous states in the world are not immune from this ... But there are no ideal states.
    1. hitech
      hitech 18 March 2014 08: 38
      +5
      Don’t get excited. Passes - will not pass, no need to play daisy, you need to systematically prevent it.
      1. buzer
        buzer 18 March 2014 09: 23
        +3
        it’s good that you are with me !!! Poke talking talk about sincerity and simplicity. If everything in the history of mankind was systematically prevented ... I can’t even imagine such a situation !!!
    2. Humpty
      Humpty 18 March 2014 08: 43
      +5
      buzer

      "Do not exclude people from the plague
      Sumy, prisons and the fate of the mummy. "
      1. buzer
        buzer 18 March 2014 09: 18
        +1
        I did not promise, but expressed my opinion. And the bag, prison and "mu-mu" can come even to those who agree with everything and never renounce ...
    3. Refugee from Kazakhstan
      Refugee from Kazakhstan 18 March 2014 13: 03
      +1
      That's for sure! Of all the Asian peoples, nomads are farthest from religion!
  13. hitech
    hitech 18 March 2014 08: 33
    +1
    Building up a military presence is half the battle; we still need to increase our diplomatic presence.
  14. siberalt
    siberalt 18 March 2014 08: 34
    0
    Our politicians would not be pulled with the formation of an alliance. The neighbors are waiting for Russia to become stronger than America, but they don’t want to share power.
  15. The comment was deleted.
  16. gandalf
    gandalf 18 March 2014 09: 22
    +7
    The best anti-Maidan vaccine is ...
    When the leadership of the country are people who are not doing business. And their close relatives do not do business.

    Belarus - Old Man Lukashenko and his family do not do business (or I don’t know), do not have a lot of money over the hill.
    RF - Putin - the same.

    The more money a person has, the more he is a slave to this money. You can influence him directly threatened - take all the money. But do not own big money - that threat = zilch. Many people think that the more money, the freer I will be. They are wrong.

    There is no money - there is nothing to take away, the inability to influence a person with this means, i.e. threat power is directly proportional to the amount of money.

    And Putin, Old Man ... they are "hicks", in comparison with some Prokhorov ...
    1. iva12936
      iva12936 18 March 2014 12: 21
      0
      But this is not a question. laughing
    2. alone
      alone 18 March 2014 19: 03
      0
      Quote: gandalf
      And Putin, Old Man ... they are "hicks", in comparison with some Prokhorov ...


      laughing
    3. cdrt
      cdrt 19 March 2014 14: 29
      0
      Quote: gandalf
      There is no money - there is nothing to take away, the inability to influence a person with this means, i.e. threat power is directly proportional to the amount of money.


      No money, it’s bastard, chantrap. He has nothing to lose (well, this is not about politicians, but rather about voters). And it’s not necessary to be a slave to your money.

      Are you sure that Putin is a "beggar"?
      And Gavnor, and Timchenko?
  17. Coffee_time
    Coffee_time 18 March 2014 09: 35
    +1
    I hope our politicians haven’t lost experience with their eastern neighbors
  18. Michael KG
    Michael KG 18 March 2014 09: 35
    +5
    I myself live in Kyrgyzstan, but survived two coups, but you know the third, somehow we don’t want it !!!
    And without that there is complete anarchy in the country, and if you pass the next round of tense confrontation, we will end up in the ranks of the backward and dying for 200 years. The country simply does not have its own industry; the country lives on the basis of buy, sell and services. With work, it’s just a disaster, sn $ 300 is the ultimate dream.
    Over the past two years, the number of visiting people of a clearly non-Slavic appearance, who, for completely unknown reasons, began to occupy certain niches in the social environment, has increased dramatically. I do not want to know something like Syria ...
  19. opinion
    opinion 18 March 2014 09: 55
    +7
    It is very difficult to make a coup in Kazakhstan. Firstly, we are not Europeans, we are not interested in fashion for all sorts of democratic things). Secondly, we are not too eastern and radical Islam will not pass in our country.
  20. UzRus
    UzRus 18 March 2014 10: 24
    +3
    In Uzbekistan.
    The author is right about the fact that it’s a dark matter with the president’s successor, although our Doda is such a cunning fox that he can already decide everything ... Regarding the return of the IMU, it’s unlikely that we have such anti-fundamentalist legislation that my mother doesn’t grieve. And the IMUs know about this.
  21. UzRus
    UzRus 18 March 2014 10: 25
    0
    In Uzbekistan.
    The author is right about the fact that it’s a dark matter with the president’s successor, although our Doda is such a cunning fox that he can already decide everything ... Regarding the return of the IMU, it’s unlikely that we have such anti-fundamentalist legislation that my mother doesn’t grieve. And the IMUs know about this.
  22. ed65b
    ed65b 18 March 2014 11: 58
    +1
    Nda, a task with three well-known. Hopefully this scenario will not work. The Kyrgyz have already banned their officials from having accounts and property abroad.
    1. Serg65
      Serg65 18 March 2014 12: 11
      +5
      Quote: ed65b
      Nda, a task with three well-known. Hopefully this scenario will not work. The Kyrgyz have already banned their officials from having accounts and property abroad.


      Edward, I'm wildly sorry, maybe I don’t know something about this ban? At least the current president Atambayev is much smarter than his two predecessors, his main business in Turkey and to ban it for himself is somehow not logical request
  23. nnnnnn
    nnnnnn 18 March 2014 12: 30
    +3
    What did you smoke? or sniffed, and if thumped go sober, analetig fool
    1. Refugee from Kazakhstan
      Refugee from Kazakhstan 18 March 2014 13: 00
      +3
      The article is crumpled, bloated and absolutely unprepared! The author does not know the material well (in terms of the situation in the RK: for information, Kazakhstan is a secular unitary state with a presidential form of government where religion is separated from the state). In addition to territorial proximity and other well-known facts, the rest is very tight. If the article had not been published in VO, then I would have considered it biased by certain circles in Russia who would be profitable to "rock the boat"!
  24. intsurfer
    intsurfer 18 March 2014 13: 02
    +5
    After visiting Minsk and talking with people who have been living there for several years, you begin to understand how much Old Man is right by not allowing officials to put their interests much higher than state ones and creating conditions for a more or less fair distribution of resources. And so what he does not allow is floundering from side to side.
  25. CAFNS
    CAFNS 18 March 2014 13: 31
    +2
    Equality Revolution !!!
  26. datur
    datur 18 March 2014 14: 11
    +1
    in hohland-- Polish fat !!!! recourse
    1. pRofF
      pRofF 18 March 2014 15: 23
      0
      And not only Polish. My uncle still said that they seem to be taking from Hungary.
      And there are plenty of other sad examples of "European integration" - it has already been written here that they have to import ... Bulgarian pepper (!) To Bulgaria. Here is such a European grace ...
      1. intsurfer
        intsurfer 18 March 2014 15: 51
        0
        you would think that in Russia there are no Turkish tomatoes, Iranian cucumbers, Israeli carrots and Egyptian potatoes ...
        1. pRofF
          pRofF 18 March 2014 20: 55
          0
          Of course there is. But it is not about that. And about this, that the country that all life associated with all the fat, made it and exported it - that is, Fat was what is called the national product - now it is imported. Surrealism, however.
  27. Russ69
    Russ69 18 March 2014 16: 19
    +5
    Whatever you say, maydanut finished creatures ...

    Translation from Ukrainian: "People! Be careful in communicating with those who advocate for Russia, very often we see paid, but there are still ideological ones .. This is what I need, my mother is ideological for Russia, she does not go to rallies , but really wants all (!!!) of Ukraine to join Russia. The news was so brainwashed to her that she told me (and I am for the integrity of the state, for the independence of Ukraine) that Bandera go and kill people who do not support them, and so as I am on the side of the fascists, then when the PS (right sector) tell me to kill my parents, I will come and kill. I can only greet my mother, she has her own Pavlik Morozov. And I want to tell you, be careful, my own mother told me this, but what a stranger is capable of is unknown! Take care of yourself!!! Glory to Ukraine!!!"
    1. pRofF
      pRofF 18 March 2014 20: 59
      +2
      Previously, from such zombie helped three things:

      1. Mines in the Kolyma.
      2. Rods soaked in salt - the father's "anti-propaganda" (if the child is not yet very adult).
      3. Lubricate the brow green.

      In our case, alas, the choice is not great - because the stage of "soft" impact on Ukraine and its population, our state structures ignominiously failed.
  28. Ols76
    Ols76 19 March 2014 03: 04
    0
    Double standards
  29. Zymran
    Zymran 19 March 2014 12: 21
    0
    With Kazakhstan everything is more complicated: the economy of the republic is developing steadily, many oil and gas fields are located in the country. In order to destabilize the country, foreign sponsors will have to make some efforts. Any casual excuse for an uprising, as in Kyrgyzstan, will not be enough: in order to achieve the desired result, it will be necessary to deliberately "process" Kazakh society for several years.

    Such work is already actively carried out. In Kazakhstan, there are small cells of Islamist groups that organize terrorist attacks and try to sow panic in major cities using disinformation methods. Fundamentalist organizations are particularly active in southern Kazakhstan, where the majority of the population are Muslims. In the north, on the contrary, Christians live, and many of them are Russians by nationality.

    Therefore, in its consequences, a coup in Kazakhstan will be much worse than in Ukraine, because if radical Islamists come to power in Astana (or will command Kazakh officials, as Ukrainian Bandera do), persecution of Kazakhstan’s citizens will begin religious grounds.


    The author is not aware that the southerners, despite their greater religiosity, are much less likely to be treated by representatives of non-traditional Islamic movements. Most often, neophytes become radicals, having a poor understanding of religion, and southerners are not like that.

    In the north, on the contrary, Christians live, and many of them are ethnic Russians.


    Again the wrong wording. Not many, but almost all Christians are Russian or European, plus a small number of Tatars.
  30. onega67
    onega67 19 March 2014 15: 17
    0
    Yes, there is corruption. but she is so harmless! everybody takes, everybody gives. nobody complains about it! the usual thing! I am sure that corruption will NEVER become the cause of Maidan in Uzbekistan!