Military Review

Ankara destined the fate of Kiev?

28



The events in Ukraine did not go unnoticed in Turkey, and it’s not just the Crimean crisis: Turkish politicians, journalists, public figures are afraid that Ankara would suffer the fate of Kiev, where, with the support of the West, radical militants seized power. There are plenty of its own radicals in Turkey: it is the nationalists who “lit up” as early as the 80s, the new-fashioned Islamists in the secular republic, and still popular leftists. We should also mention the Kurdish militias fighting for the creation of Kurdistan. In general, the current Turkish authorities have enough enemies, and the only question is who can unite them.

Export revolution

The coup in Ukraine hastened to “try on” its partners in the CIS — would there be a similar destabilization in all countries of the post-Soviet space? In addition to the fraternal republics, the export of the revolution was frightened overseas: since the end of February, the Turkish media have received a mass of analytical materials on whether the Kiev events can be repeated in Ankara and Istanbul.

Such concern is justified. For many months, protests and riots have not ceased in Turkey: the opposition has been demanding the resignation of a government convicted of corruption since the spring of 2013. Among the demonstrators and police are wounded and dead.

Who opposes Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party headed by him? The opposition has a heterogeneous composition: a strange temporary union of liberals, nationalists, Kurds, Islamists is going to overthrow the existing state system in order to create a kind of “renewed state”. Of course, what Turkey should become in the future, each party sees its own way.

The publication Yeni Safak is interested in: will foreign countries take advantage of instability in the republic in order to bring puppet rulers to power? Analysts fear that with the hands of the opposition, the West wants to deprive Turkey of real independence. The newspaper reports that hundreds of foreigners are already undergoing the necessary training, and by command from abroad they will plunge the republic into chaos.

Journalists hold direct analogies between the Maidan and the latest events in Turkey. According to them, both Ukrainian and Turkish opposition parties have the same source of funding. The plan developed to bring Ukraine out of the Russian sphere of influence coincides with the project of destabilization of Turkey.

The struggle against the Turkish government, which is independent of the West, is made by the hands of the Turks themselves, who in case of victory will receive some profit. The “think tank” itself is located abroad: it is from there that the actions of the opposition, whose ideas are alien to the majority of citizens of the republic, are coordinated. Yeni Safak compares the current political confrontation in Turkey as a conflict between alien, alien ideas, and a long-established local outlook.

Last summer, when it was possible to stop the riots in connection with the demolition of the Gezi Park, information was voiced that about a thousand mercenaries opposed the Turkish authorities. Turkish intelligence agencies began investigating the May unrest, and “hot on the heels” went to foreign sponsors. It remains unknown whether the investigation was able to find customers.

Who benefits from a weak turkey?

Turkish experts draw attention to the fact that both Turkey and Ukraine are transit countries. Delivery of goods from east to west and back is carried out through their territory, so, having accomplished a revolution in Ankara, the West will receive an excellent bridge to the Middle East.

In addition, in recent decades, Turkey has become too independent in foreign policy. Usually, NATO dictated the Turkish government, with whom to be friends, and with whom - to fight. And, despite the periodic crises in relations with neighbors, Turkey has always unconditionally adhered to the "general line" of the North Atlantic Alliance.

The republic was controlled by the military loyal to Washington and Brussels: the armed forces could at any time make another coup in order to get rid of the disagreeable president or government. NATO military bases were deployed in Turkey without the consent of the local population; Moreover, on the eve of the Caribbean crisis, the American nuclear weapon.

The junta suppressed any anti-war speeches with extreme cruelty, while the West was always silent and did not make complaints about human rights violations.

And so, in the 90-s in Turkey there was a turning point: for the first time in many decades, civilian politicians were able to overcome the domination of the army, true to the NATO ideals. Ankara no longer wants to carry out orders from Brussels: in 2011-2012, despite strong pressure from the West, Turkey did not intervene in the Syrian adventure. And the participation of Turkey in this war would mean the collapse of the Turkish economy, huge casualties, the revitalization of the Kurdish movement and the opposition and, as a result, the beginning of an armed confrontation within the aggressor country itself.

Turning Turkey into a hotbed of instability seems to have been part of Washington’s plans. Starting in Tunisia, the Arab Spring was supposed to end in Ankara and Istanbul. All Turkish parties and groups, ranging from liberals to religious fundamentalists, prepared for confrontation with moderate Islamists, who are represented by Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The president and members of the Justice and Development Party were threatened by former military men who had been removed from ruling the country.

On the eve of the Turkish Maidan

It looks like demonstrations in Turkey in 2013 were planned with the expectation that the republic would be at war with Syria at that moment. Then the “people's anger” would become even stronger, since coffins with Turkish soldiers were brought home from abroad, and cripples who returned from the front would talk about the senselessness of the Syrian campaign.

But Turkey, contrary to the arguments of NATO and Saudi Arabia, remained aloof from the war. The goals have changed a little: now Erdogan must be overthrown in order to engage the country in a conflict, and not vice versa.

Most likely, the next attempt to get rid of the intractable president will be made on March 30, on the day when elections to local authorities are to be held in Turkey. Recep Erdogan, the leader of the Justice and Development Party, has already said that if his political power by the results of the voting does not take the first place, he is ready to leave the world of politics.

But Erdogan can push. If he tries to resist, he will be declared an inhuman tyrant and may even impose sanctions on Turkey for "human rights violations". At the worst case scenario for Erdogan, Turkey will be placed on a par with Syria, and all militia groups operating in the republic itself and in the neighboring countries will be incited against it.

There is no alternative to this scenario - if Turkey remained a loyal ally of the North Atlantic Alliance, Western politicians would still take care of destabilizing the state and reformatting it.

The only chance to save Turkey is to renounce the West, to find strategic partners in the East. The Turks themselves have long been disappointed in the “European dream”: the country that has been standing for ten years in front of the tightly locked gate of the European Union. Turks will not forgive such a humiliating attitude. The society understands that a prosperous life should be built by its own efforts, not relying on foreign sponsors, who have their own plans for the future of Turkey.

That is why Erdogan, with all his shortcomings, is still in power. The ideas of disparate groups do not find support among the population, and the majority of Turks are in general categorically opposed to "friendship" with the West.
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  1. Arhj
    Arhj 14 March 2014 08: 43
    +14
    It is worth thinking not only of Turkey, but also of others. The United States and Britain have repeatedly attached their allies. For them, politics is business. Therefore, no NATO member state can be sure that tomorrow, when the conjuncture changes, they will not be in Ukraine’s place.
    1. invisibility
      invisibility 14 March 2014 08: 56
      +5
      The article has a very superficial analysis. It is absolutely incorrect to compare the problems of Ukraine and Turkey. Especially touched by the phrase
      In addition, in recent decades, Turkey has become too independent in foreign policy.

      What is this expressed in?
      And do not forget that Turkey has Ukraine’s problems, it’s sweet honey! She will be the first to try to profit at the expense of Ukraine.
      1. Strezhevchanin
        Strezhevchanin 14 March 2014 09: 40
        +8
        Wasn't Putin talking about this "false start" ???
        1. igordok
          igordok 14 March 2014 11: 58
          +1
          Quote: Strezhevchanin
          Wasn't Putin talking about this "false start" ???


          And if further, counterclockwise, Ukraine, Poland, touches Germany and Italy.
      2. Thompson
        Thompson 14 March 2014 09: 53
        +4
        Quote: invisible
        And do not forget that Turkey has Ukraine’s problems, it’s sweet honey! She will be the first to try to profit at the expense of Ukraine.

        Yes, nothing shines here for her in any situation, except for licking
        1. The comment was deleted.
        2. invisibility
          invisibility 14 March 2014 10: 21
          0
          I also really hope so
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. 222222
      222222 14 March 2014 10: 29
      +3
      Arhj SU Today, 08:43 AM New
      "The United States and Britain _repeatedly_ lent their allies." ..... systematically with enviable consistency ..
    4. jjj
      jjj 14 March 2014 13: 27
      0
      So, you look and Constantinople will take up the referendum
      1. Sid.74
        Sid.74 15 March 2014 00: 29
        0
        Happening symptomatically! Better and you can not think of for the adversaries from the United States and their vassals from Europe! Just imagine the focus of tension in the Black Sea region and in almost the entire Middle East!
        The interim results can be seen very well, an incredible number of weapons and groups of wandering around BV, a huge incredible amount of heroin, the downward economy of BV, extreme radical Islamism!
        Guess who will disassemble these Augean stables -Russia, Israel, partly European countries and Iran!
        Why is this happening because the United States is switching to the countries of the Asia-Pacific Region!
        Too much in the understanding of the United States, China imagines itself to be, India, besides, is turning back on the United States, even though it does not belong to the APR now!
        For Russia, an important race with time is now, an incredible important race! What should you have time to do, put military bases in Cuba and Nicaragua! Finish the PAK FA, tighten the submarine and surface fleet, strengthen the border areas! And this is only a small fraction of what needs to be done!
        I suppose that Turkey will not be let go just like that, it will be squeezed as much as possible with vile and immoral methods! And if the Turkish secret services miss it, the rebel fighters from Syria will start! The local elections in Turkey will take place on the 30! And all this will take place almost badly. a covered rebellion, we watch closely what is happening on this depends very much! If Erdogan will stand, I applaud him! hi
  2. just exp
    just exp 14 March 2014 08: 43
    +11
    why does Erdogan like the USA? SAM bought Chinese, with Russia and China negotiates a dollar-free trade, did not start a war with Syria.
    harm one atlantic idea.
  3. Terrible ensign
    Terrible ensign 14 March 2014 09: 04
    +7
    He who is not with amers is against them. MUH has no other approach.
    So all countries that claim to conduct an independent policy should think about at what point they may have a “revolutionary situation” and make significant efforts to work with their homegrown liberoids and other “fifth column”
    MUH is completely poo. O. I. I., And the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states, but very strictly cut a clearing so that such actions could not come from someone else except them.
    Double standards...
  4. w2000
    w2000 14 March 2014 09: 20
    +5
    Turkey needs to leave NATO and strengthen economic ties with Iran and the Customs Union. I think that the Turkish special services and leadership already know the details of the US plan to destabilize the situation in Turkey along the lines of "color" coups.
    1. tilovaykrisa
      tilovaykrisa 14 March 2014 09: 24
      +2
      Too much work was done by Endrogan so that his Iran with open arms would welcome him and in the Customs Union he wasn’t glad to see him unnecessary; he had an edrogan there and understood that he had fallen between two fires, and neither here nor there. Yes, and his youngsters radicals just do not let him get out of Syria.
  5. parusnik
    parusnik 14 March 2014 09: 22
    +3
    Turkey has become too independent in foreign policy. Punishment for independence .. USA, brothers in NATO
  6. Ferrum leck
    Ferrum leck 14 March 2014 09: 25
    +4
    Erdogan must endure, it is NECESSARY to endure, otherwise Turkey will be torn. He is very objectionable to the United States, and not only that. Events in Ukraine show that even partners of the West and the United States, in the case of a different understanding of the world order than their (USA), are guaranteed coups.
  7. Mihail29
    Mihail29 14 March 2014 10: 05
    0
    Turkey and Erdogan in particular have some time to use wisely since The US will soon be freed from Afghanistan; in Ukraine, they will not succeed. It will be necessary to look at others, especially at the obstinate vassals.
  8. reality
    reality 14 March 2014 10: 36
    +3
    Turkey is not needed in the customs union. They have too strong an economy, even the Russian will have a hard time. They produce absolutely everything, while their products are of acceptable quality and cheaper than European ones.
    Plus, their claims to create a Turkic association have not been canceled.
  9. gsg955
    gsg955 14 March 2014 10: 49
    0
    Anglo-Saxons stir up to save the dollar. As long as they have a printing press they have nothing to fear.
  10. shatu
    shatu 14 March 2014 12: 51
    +5
    will even impose sanctions on Turkey for “human rights violations”

    I'm afraid I will soon develop a reflex, I heard about the "violation of human rights" - kick it in the face. And like this, the reflex will work on such words as "freedom (liberal), democracy, open [foundation], grant."
    Pundossy distort the meaning of everything they touch, the line between good and evil is erased. In general, "Overton Windows" in action.
  11. Alexgs
    Alexgs 14 March 2014 13: 17
    +3
    Yes, it is not surprising that the West is already twisting at the thought that Crimea will self-determine through a referendum. If you dig deep enough, almost every country in the West has its own "Crimea" - Saxony in Germany, Catalonia in Spain, Ireland and Scotland in Great Britain, Corsica and New Caledonia in France ... the list goes on. They themselves do not understand what kind of car they launched by supporting the United States in Kosovo.
  12. Kornilovets
    Kornilovets 14 March 2014 13: 51
    +1
    Give a referendum on joining the Russian Federation - Constantinople (Bosphorus + Darddanelles) laughing
  13. Russlana
    Russlana 14 March 2014 14: 49
    +2
    Everything is as predicted: destabilization of the world, anarchy and devastation for the reign of an already legal world government. People tired of devastation and war will gladly accept the one who will give them peace and prosperity. And we will stand and see how all this will work. We will live by the principle: he who is not against us is with us. And God help us.
  14. fred967
    fred967 14 March 2014 16: 14
    0
    Turkey is a secular state.
    Give way out of NATO!
    Give entry to the vehicle!
  15. Irokez
    Irokez 14 March 2014 17: 16
    0
    Or they may be offered an association with the Customs Union, and then it will be seen.
  16. Alexandr0id
    Alexandr0id 14 March 2014 17: 31
    +3
    the Ukrainian version with the collapse of Turkey into several parts is hardly possible. in the Turkish Republic, governments were repeatedly replaced, but this did not particularly change the country. even if PSR and Erdogan lose the election, nothing special will happen, the Kemalists from the Republican Party will return to power. and then in the next election maybe PSR will return. it’s like in the states where the republican president replaces the democratic one, but in the country no shocks occur from this, politics is slightly adjusted and nothing more.
  17. Gagarin
    Gagarin 14 March 2014 18: 26
    +1
    The West (with transit countries in this region), Ukraine and Turkey, wants to crank out the same pretzel as with the disenfranchised Panama and Panama Canal.
    Our task is to draw the right conclusions and to respond to such a pretzel with PICTURES!
  18. Finist
    Finist 14 March 2014 18: 42
    0
    Turkey is a great country with a great history. If she wants to stay that way, then you just need to be with someone, and not alone. Since the West did not succeed, the anti-West remains: Iran and the BRICS ...
  19. Keeper
    Keeper 14 March 2014 18: 50
    0
    Turkey now just really needs to support Russia in everything, since 85% of tourists are ours! This means that the economy of the entire country is based on Russian "injections"!
    1. ayyildiz
      ayyildiz 14 March 2014 19: 32
      +3
      Quote: Keeper
      This means that the economy of the entire country is based on Russian "injections"!


      Turkish injections are much more in Russia than the turnover! And Russian is still a trifle in the Turkish economy!
    2. lelikas
      lelikas 15 March 2014 15: 32
      0
      Quote: Keeper
      Turkey now simply needs to support Russia in everything, as 85% of our tourists!

      Not quite so - the majority there are Germans, ours are in second place. Although with the problems of Egypt, they must catch up.
  20. muller28
    muller28 15 March 2014 01: 33
    0
    What kind of fables ... Uncle Vasya (Erdogan) is sitting tight. Although he is NATO, he is no longer the EU, and that's good (and the hike to the EU is far too far ...). We would like to see what there will be for the elections "in Turechchina" ...
  21. Check mark
    Check mark 16 March 2014 00: 44
    0
    Something like this is all strange .. We paid attention .. USA fleet Turkey did not let only 1 ship go to the World Cup and the next day Erdogan wrote (I will probably leave politics) And immediately the pogroms started. I think this is the United States taking revenge for the 6th fleet I didn’t let in the World Cup. I suppose that the United States put a lot of pressure on Erdogan. I don’t see other explanations
  22. rezident
    rezident 16 March 2014 05: 52
    0
    There is some kind of a long-standing agreement restricting the passage of military vessels by time. And there’s no reason for Erdogan to get into these graters.
  23. Megatron
    Megatron 17 March 2014 05: 29
    0
    For starters, Turkey needs to stop spoiling Russia and rocking our boat, then maybe we can help them ....