Military Review

Ukrainian crisis as a trap for the EU and the US

60



An article appeared in RBC today signed by financial experts Ivan Tkachev, Evgeny Novikov and Elena Malysheva. The essence of the study is that Mr. Putin laid a huge mine under the Ukrainian crisis, which our “partners” did not notice in time. This is one small phrase in the 200-page agreement on the provision of 15 billion to Ukraine in exchange for Eurobonds ...

In the prospectus of two-year Eurobonds for 3 billion dollars, it is said that while the securities are in circulation, Ukraine "undertakes to maintain the total amount of public debt and state guaranteed debt at no more than 60% of annual nominal GDP." As Mitu Gulati, a professor of law at Duke University in the United States, points out, one of the authoritative experts on such transactions that this clause actually repeats the provision of Article XXUMX of the Budget Code of Ukraine. But, according to Gulati, his inclusion in the terms of placement of Eurobonds could be done at the insistence of Russia. In case of violation of this obligation, Russia will have the right to demand early repayment of securities from Ukraine. The bomb exploded yesterday ...

The article has a lot of abstruse terms, you can read them here: http://top.rbc.ru/economics/12/03/2014/910431.shtml.

I will try to translate into accessible Russian.

1. If I understood correctly, before borrowing money from someone, the Ukrainian government is obliged to pay Russia's debt - these are 2 billion for gas, 3 for eurobonds and 12 a penalty for gas - total 17 billion. Only after that Ukraine can receive tranches and billions from other sources. Therefore, talk of money the IMF and the United States with the EU, together, hung in the air.

2. If Ukraine gives 17 billion to get something, then she herself needs at least 15-17 billion for life ... That is, the EU or the IMF or the United States or all together should give Ukraine at least 30 billion. Neither the EU nor the United States has such money. You can take money only from Russia or China, no one else has it.

And then in China, if Russia agrees, and without it, again, China will not give ...

That is, we get that in order to get Ukraine, the EU should borrow at least 30 billions from Russia. And for what? To prove to the people of Ukraine that the people who took power are capable of doing something?
Knowing Europe, I doubt it very much. Moreover, recently there have been signals in serious publications that the Europeans are extremely dissatisfied with the situation in which the United States is simply impudently telling their governments what to do.

As an example: today in France, in business and military circles, Hollande’s unconditional desire to follow instructions from Washington — to declare sanctions to Russia — has provoked outrage. This is despite the fact that the neighbor through the English Channel clearly expressed that she was not going to take part in this “bedlam”. Well, there is an example of a sanction on the arrest of Rogozin's accounts, etc. That is, it is a fiction, because government officials have no accounts.

3. In the USA, it may be that kind of money, but how to explain to taxpayers that they will have to be given to Russia for some incomprehensible Ukraine? This is against the background of today's scandal over the hacking of congressmen computers, in which they accused the CIA. For all the documents that denounced this office disappeared. The senators were from the CIA investigation committee. Making a fuss in Congress about sanctions and other things - a pugalovka ... It was not for nothing that two congressmen introduced the resolution, whose names were heard for the first time in Congress itself.

4. Russia initially advocated territorial integrity, if anyone remembers. The West at that time, supporting the western regions, literally inspired their separation. Recall how independent rads appeared like mushrooms after the rain and announced insubordination to Kiev.

Then Russia, when the West reached its feet in Ukraine, began to show external uncertainty, somehow incomprehensible to rush about, Putin altogether went silent ... In the Southeast, the attempts were weak ... And in general, the Crimean crisis was somehow not planned ... The EU and The United States triumphed, throwing off Yanukovich. Russia again was silent, with a goat kid, however, it was bleating about some kind of international norms. West chuckled.

5. At this time, the new government of Ukraine, reassured by the West, began to behave oddly. The first laws - on the abolition of the ban on propaganda of Nazism, the abolition of the law on languages, the abolition of the law on the autonomy of the Crimea - literally blew up the Crimea and Russian-populated areas.

But more or less normal leaders were found only in the Crimea. Dobkin and Kernes disappointed me very much ... There were a lot of strokes with spread fingers, powerful bubbles, and as a result, zilch ... My opinion - having provoked the Russian community, these leaders, stepping aside, simply surrendered everyone.

This government (and in fact the junta) by its actions, as well as loud statements, completely cut off all the ways for normal communication with Russia. Even Tymoshenko decided to be noted, "partisan" with a scythe.

By the way, as far as I own the information, today an application has been submitted to her at the Prosecutor General’s Office. The essence of it - please give a legal assessment of her performance in Germany, where she, putting in an uncomfortable position and Germany itself, and Angela Merkel in particular, promised and called for guerilla actions on the territory of the Russian Federation ...

Another junta announced to the people that the West is about to help now, but the West has not yet decided how to do everything, so far only talk, the same as about 1 billion from the United States. And Ukraine has announced its entry into NATO, the EU, in general, where they will accept, will go there.

6. Russia calmly, without fuss and fanfare sheltered Mr. Yanukovich, who is legitimate from the point of view of international law. Well, and voiced permission to use the Armed Forces to protect the Russian-speaking population. Olympics brilliantly held, while in Kiev held a Sabbath.

7. As soon as there was organized resistance in the Crimea with pronounced charismatic leaders, the junta, with the hands of Avakov and Nalyvaychenko, with Poroshenko’s involvement on March 1, tried to arrange a "crystal night" in the Crimea. The planes with the ministers had to turn around, and Poroshenko wiped off the Crimean spit from himself, since 30 minutes before time H (by the way, many Ukrainian military in Crimea confirm the fact that their parts were raised on March 1 without an explanation for the alarm) both airports and all military units of the Ukrainian army, including the runways of military airfields, were blocked by unknown persons who received the nickname “green men” by the people.

Putin had no choice. If they didn’t use force, there would be a bloodbath, for local self-defense at that time was already partially armed. Applied - Russia is still to blame ... Something like that ... Although I think it’s excellent to figure out what the junta's gift is doing, which used and still uses the factor of the Russian troops to inflate hysteria in Ukraine. In order to distract people from economic mayhem and rally them against an external enemy.

8. The European Union, in fact, publicly supported the coup d'état in Ukraine. I promised everything, but ... I cannot yet give money, because a restrictive article has been revealed. And now great minds are looking for a way out of this situation. Take Ukraine as an associative member - stop, and who will feed all these millions, who will build roads for them, pay pensions? They are waiting and hoping ... NATO? And according to the Charter of this organization, its member can not be a country with unresolved internal problems. Crimea ... Ha ha ha ...

And on the horizon, the prospect of a final quarrel with Russia looms ... Sanctions are threatened with terrible, terrible ... I listened, since I speak the language, and I don’t know what to do - cry or laugh. No one, except France, is in favor of widespread sanctions ... Point, directed against certain individuals. Suppose Britain, knowing full well that, according to the law of the Russian Federation, state officials do not have the right to have financial accounts abroad, calmly suggests arresting accounts of members of the Russian government. We stopped fussing around visas, while loudly stating this ... It doesn’t matter that the negotiations went unsuccessfully for 7 years.

The most interesting thing is that Putin is again silent. Slightly spoke to reporters, and again he was silent that the West was already annoyed at all. I think so, time is playing on us ... And it will all end in a trite way - the West will have to, after trying to do something, turn it to Putin, behind whose back China is quietly looming.

And then the GDP will speak ... In fact, the GDP and its advisers threw the West into such a dup, that it will have only one way out - to ask Russia to resolve this situation somehow.

Therefore, I ask you not to hysteria and not to insult the representatives of Ukraine, who are visitors of our resource. Believe me - they are a hundred times worse than you ... Respect each other.

What was written above is the essence of my personal vision and the result of the analysis and may not coincide either with the expressed official position or with your opinion.

Best regards to all - Santor
60 comments
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  1. SRC P-15
    SRC P-15 13 March 2014 09: 43
    +9
    Well, it happens to me, the comp comments doubles, but two articles in a row about the same thing ...?
    1. Sibiriya
      Sibiriya 13 March 2014 09: 46
      +15
      The main point is correct wink
      1. Canep
        Canep 13 March 2014 09: 57
        +5
        Only there is one "but", but will they adhere to this agreement? While we are going to defend the courts that they will already saw the money of the US and the EU. True, then (maybe in a month, or maybe in 10 years), the court will issue an order on the immediate payment of debts, then a default. And this gang will already be overseas.
        1. I do not care
          I do not care 13 March 2014 10: 05
          +20
          what are such sanctions
          1. baltika-18
            baltika-18 13 March 2014 10: 22
            +7
            Quote: Canep
            Only now there is one "but", but will they adhere to this agreement

            That's it. The world payment system belongs to them and is controlled by them. And even the Russian payment system is a branch of the world. We can’t seize or block anything. Judge? But the courts can last for years, the more the courts are controlled by them. Close the ventil? We’ll be in the priest. We are very much integrated into the global economy. The stick is always about two ends.
            So I would not say "Ha-ha", as the author, they say, "they are all trapped." You should not underestimate your opponent. They did not "eat one dog" on financial fraud.
            1. just exp
              just exp 13 March 2014 10: 44
              +1
              The answer to this has already been given, the nationalization of everything that belongs to the West.
              1. baltika-18
                baltika-18 13 March 2014 10: 50
                +7
                Quote: just explo
                the answer to this has already been given, the nationalization of all that belongs to the West

                Then everything will have to be nationalized, because behind each of our oligarchs are the billionaires of the West, and ours is essentially just a screen.
                I am only for. Long live the socialist revolution from above!
            2. nik.tmn72
              nik.tmn72 13 March 2014 16: 58
              +2
              in order not to be integrated it is necessary to develop YOUR production and agriculture, and our management is integrating and integrating. It’s more profitable to be managers than builders!
          2. aepocmam
            aepocmam 13 March 2014 11: 15
            +2
            Putin, using the example of the Crimea, tells the Chinese how they should join Formosa ...
        2. Andrey57
          Andrey57 13 March 2014 10: 46
          +4
          Only there is one "but", but will they adhere to this agreement?


          There will be! The beauty of this is that the London Financial Exchange itself is the guarantor for the registration of securities, while failure to comply with this "small" point is automatically imposed on all financial flows of the exchange! And this non-fulfillment is a guaranteed collapse of the financial market, in which 17 billion. evergreens for Russia will seem like pocket money for a kinder for a Sunday amusement park laughing
          1. SV
            SV 13 March 2014 20: 28
            0
            Andrey57
            Will be!

            If not, a dangerous precedent will be created for the type of Kosovo, only in the economy. In addition, China hinted at the amount of debt of the West, and India today openly sided with Russia. wink After our actions in Syria, the unipolar world crackled at the seams, the world saw another force which, in small steps, but confidently takes the helm of the world order into its own hands. RUSSIA / China / India - increasingly act as a united front in world politics angry . The realities of today are such that everyone will have to reckon with this !!!
      2. Registrar
        Registrar 13 March 2014 10: 54
        +2
        Support!
        And Putin is now often silent, silent, and does not take active action, because we have an OI. Only puppet politicians bought by America can fight during the Games (hello to the tie-eater Misha!).
    2. ShturmKGB
      ShturmKGB 13 March 2014 10: 04
      +11
      I assumed something like that, too GDP is calm, apparently the apparatus is working ... if the crisis in Ukraine resolves without a civil war, it will be comparable to a miracle!
      1. GRDS
        GRDS 13 March 2014 12: 35
        +2
        If this crisis is resolved without blood (although it has already been shed) it will be Putin’s pure merit. Maybe even to the Nobel Committee for the Peace Prize, only I think she doesn’t care - the greatness of Russia is more important to him and what the story about him in the future will say! And she will say many good words! Do not go to the forest!
        1. shalk
          shalk 13 March 2014 15: 23
          +1
          he is more important than the greatness of Russia


          The welfare of Russia.
    3. jjj
      jjj 13 March 2014 10: 14
      +3
      I wonder which of the western leaders will be the first to rush to Putin to bow
      1. just exp
        just exp 13 March 2014 10: 44
        +2
        whoever screwed up most of all, to whom the situation presses the tail, that will be the first.
    4. Horst78
      Horst78 13 March 2014 11: 31
      0
      Here is some kind of naturewassat
      Quote: СРЦ П-15
      comp comments doubles
  2. tilovaykrisa
    tilovaykrisa 13 March 2014 09: 44
    +1
    Bayan, it was already.
    1. Vladimirets
      Vladimirets 13 March 2014 09: 50
      +4
      Quote: tilovaykrisa
      Bayan, it was already.

      No, the previous article was written in other words from another author, although the thoughts are the same. wink
  3. saag
    saag 13 March 2014 09: 45
    +26
    Marine Le Pen in the presidency of France, the only adequate person there !!!
    1. from punk
      from punk 13 March 2014 09: 46
      +6
      Quote: saag
      Marine Le Pen in the presidency of France, the only adequate person there !!!

      she’s just looking for a profit where others don’t see. Gaining points is also important for her
  4. rasputin17
    rasputin17 13 March 2014 09: 47
    +9
    With a bare well .. but but in the integration with the EU !! Question: Where are the promised loans from the IMF and the USA ?? Russia needs to pay off debts, and it is waiting for them, it still needs to raise Crimea after the independent !!)))
  5. Same lech
    Same lech 13 March 2014 09: 51
    +6
    This is a business ... heh heh ... nothing personal-the client pay the debt or put it on the counter.
    1. rasputin17
      rasputin17 13 March 2014 11: 28
      0
      Let's send a racketeer in the form of "polite people" and chop off for debts the entire eastern part of the southern part for which the Romanians raise their shabby tail !! Besides, we still have unpaid bills for the Great Patriotic War !!!
  6. Oleg Sobol
    Oleg Sobol 13 March 2014 09: 51
    +8
    Thanks for the analysis. We’ll wait and see how further.
    In our situation, as the boy Kibalchish said:If only we could stand the night and hold out the day!
  7. hhhhhhh
    hhhhhhh 13 March 2014 09: 52
    +9
    Ukrainians and Russian brothers forever.
    Bendera simply fascists and have nothing to do with real Ukrainians.
  8. Same lech
    Same lech 13 March 2014 09: 56
    +1
    The West will have to do something after trying


    Engage in GAS-MASOCHISM..that they do well ... I would post this video on the SITE but the rules are prohibited.
    1. from punk
      from punk 13 March 2014 10: 08
      0
      oh !! here it happens that without the video Rises ,,,,,, the question
  9. Slavkovich
    Slavkovich 13 March 2014 09: 56
    +11
    And the longer GDP is silent, the more terrible it becomes to make this mess. Bravo!!!
    1. alex-s
      alex-s 13 March 2014 09: 58
      +3
      And the longer GDP is silent, the more terrible it becomes to make this mess.

      And when he speaks, in general, everyone will do it! laughing
      1. Slavkovich
        Slavkovich 14 March 2014 20: 13
        0
        yes .... and they will smell terribly, another years .... dtsat laughing
  10. Berimor 2
    Berimor 2 13 March 2014 09: 58
    +14
    How joyfully the voices in the West sounded when the value of our securities fell (although in this case too, Russia was able to emerge victorious). Now there is sobering in the minds (again through holes in wallets or budgets). And if Russia gives an answer (as always mirrored) on the issue of sanctions, then he (the West) will move away from such a blow for a long time. And it is necessary to strike (at least half-power) in order to put in place the presumptuous Western world. Bravo Russia !! Keep it up!!
  11. Evkur
    Evkur 13 March 2014 10: 00
    +2
    Looking forward to Sunday! It will be fun )))
  12. from punk
    from punk 13 March 2014 10: 05
    0
    Meanwhile, Greece, the EU country continues to go on strike. And the smoke of the fatherland is sweet to us.
  13. spec-80
    spec-80 13 March 2014 10: 06
    0
    if they want to give money, they will give it. In the form of investments, they will issue it or something else.
  14. leks
    leks 13 March 2014 10: 06
    +20
    The West infuriates Putin’s silence, the guys from the West, unlike you, are a man of business and not an empty bell, you promised Ukraine castles in the air, and now you don’t know how to arrange it all, and in general we’re thinking to hell with the Slavs. We Slavs will understand ourselves here without you.

    Alexander Pushkin

    ADDRESSERS OF RUSSIA

    What are you noisy about, folk-like?
    Why anathema threaten you Russia?
    What angered you? unrest in Lithuania?
    Leave: this is a dispute between the Slavs,
    Home, old dispute, weighted by fate,
    A question that you will not solve.

    For a long time among themselves
    These tribes are at war;
    More than once bowed under a thunderstorm
    Theirs, then our side.
    Who will stand in an unequal dispute:
    Puffy Lyakh il faithful Ross?
    Will Slavic streams merge in the Russian sea?
    Will it run dry? here is the question.

    Leave us: you have not read
    These bloody tablets;
    It’s incomprehensible to you, alien to you
    This is a family feud;
    The Kremlin and Prague are silent for you;
    Pointlessly seduces you
    Fights of desperate courage -
    And you hate us ...
    For what? answer: for whether
    What is on the ruins of flaming Moscow
    We did not recognize the brazen will
    Who were you trembling under?
    For the fact that they plunged into the abyss
    We are idol over kingdoms
    And redeemed with our blood
    European liberty, honor and peace?

    You are formidable in words - try it in practice!
    Or the old hero, deceased on his bed,
    Unable to screw up your Izmail bayonet?
    Is the Russian tsar already powerless to speak?
    Or should we argue with Europe new?
    Il Russian weaned from victories?
    Or a little of us? Or from Perm to Tauris,
    From the Finnish cold rocks to the flaming Colchis,
    From the shocked Kremlin
    To the walls of immobile China,
    Shiny bristles,
    Do not get up the Russian land ?. .
    So send us, vitias,
    His angry sons:
    There is a place for them in the fields of Russia,
    Among the coffins that are not theirs.
    “Slanderers of Russia” - a patriotic poem-ode by A. S. Pushkin, published in 1831 and arising in connection with the Polish uprising of 1830-1831.
    I think this poem is still relevant !!!
  15. 341712
    341712 13 March 2014 10: 13
    +1
    Aaaaaaaaaaaaaahrenet! Ours showed that they also know how to play multi-steps! By the way, GDP is still silent .... bully
  16. pensioner
    pensioner 13 March 2014 10: 15
    +9
    In fact, the GDP and its advisers dragged the West into such a duplicate that it has only one way out - to ask Russia to resolve this situation at least somehow.
    Yeah ... Putin already helped Obama get off the palm treeyeson the issue of Syria. Now, somehow, we need to help the West on the Ukrainian issue ... what True, one must carefully act here so as not to get exhausted, since they did not climb onto the palm, but quite the opposite: they fell into a cesspool.negative So: do not give hands! stop Only a kind word to help ... Only a kind word!
  17. Makarov
    Makarov 13 March 2014 10: 18
    +3
    They decided to create the National Guard ... it will be that one circus)
  18. SVD
    SVD 13 March 2014 10: 19
    +4
    It's not a bad thing that the pros play the "Big Game" here.
  19. UzRus
    UzRus 13 March 2014 10: 31
    0
    12 billion - fines for gas !? Fuck not get up, where such a sum? But what kind of bankrupt state will be contacted? No, it's not that ...
  20. schizophrenic
    schizophrenic 13 March 2014 10: 37
    +1
    Where poor Yanukovych could go if the EU was going to throw him, only to Russia, and GDP correctly decided. America normally hit and Russia held the Olympics and why it was in a hurry if the move was made the rest let them do their own.
  21. belyi60
    belyi60 13 March 2014 10: 37
    +6
    Putin's silence is much more convincing than Obama's screams.
  22. kocclissi
    kocclissi 13 March 2014 10: 37
    +2
    No loans cost-nefig oligarchs feed! Let the stewards) jump in the pan!
  23. bulvas
    bulvas 13 March 2014 10: 45
    +1
    In general, thanks to the author for a pleasant reading in the morning ... but let's not forget that the enemies (who are partners) are strong and very insidious. And the fact that in politics they do not really pay attention to moral standards, so you need to be prepared for everything .... and increase the intensity and frequency of sudden inspections of the armed forces.
  24. vlad.svargin
    vlad.svargin 13 March 2014 10: 46
    0
    The article arouses optimism against the background of frenzied unrestrained statements about any sanctions against Russia. "If you are so, then we will in spite of you. am "-Even NATO will accept Georgia if Crimea joins Russia and Ukraine, we will" push "into this pack of jackals. It looks like childish babble !!! But Putin is silent, this is much more effective than empty intimidation of the US and EU. they can't do anything to us, and the crisis has not gone away yet. ”The same OR was in August 2008, the predator country with the striped symbol was especially trying, and how it all ended ...
  25. VNP1958PVN
    VNP1958PVN 13 March 2014 10: 47
    0
    The EU just wanted to spoil Russia. And in Europe everything is so crowded and the wind is in their direction! Nobody paid for the weather, now you need to sniff! laughing
  26. mountain
    mountain 13 March 2014 10: 49
    +1
    Pat, checkmate, knockout, knockdown.))) Here's a Russia, try not to fall in love.
  27. mihasik
    mihasik 13 March 2014 10: 50
    0
    If the author read his own link in the article "double", then everything is described in more detail and the risks for Russia are great regarding the return of debts. And where did the $ 12 billion fine in the gas debt come from? Can he explain? In the same article of RBC, to which the author refers, it is written that, in aggregate, Ukraine owes 10 billion dollars to Russia, taking into account private debts, which cannot be returned "automatically"! So too optimistic I would say.
  28. kapitan281271
    kapitan281271 13 March 2014 10: 53
    +4
    Guys celebrate victory early. Everything would have been like a note, but on the other side there is now a problem and it is that there are no Churchillies of Roosevelts and De Goleys. Decisions are made by semi-fanatics or half-rags with very low professional training, and idiots are hard to calculate. The main mistake of Stalin was that he considered Adolf to be a more or less competent strategist and came to the belief that he would never risk it, because for him this death basically happened, but what the Fuhrer’s incompetence cost us was not necessary.
    PS For two years, the main specialist and adviser on Syria in the State Department was a woman who bought a diploma and had nothing to do with it.
  29. mabuta
    mabuta 13 March 2014 10: 57
    +1
    Ah well done! Http: //topwar.ru/uploads/images/2014/480/iign175.jpg
  30. The comment was deleted.
  31. Gagarin
    Gagarin 13 March 2014 10: 59
    +1
    Amazing alignment!
    But on the 5th channel in Ukraine only victory victories are heard:
    We get loans, we are joining NATO, we will not give up Crimea, the world community is with us ...
    When will this junta go on the run?
  32. The comment was deleted.
    1. Horst78
      Horst78 13 March 2014 11: 32
      0
      Quote: j iz sibiri
      HERE A PEOPLE IN RUSSIA ALREADY TIRED THIS FACT
      What does "TIRED" mean, the fun is just beginning.
  33. kapitan281271
    kapitan281271 13 March 2014 11: 01
    +1
    In Wo, I won’t come out of it either!
  34. Santor
    13 March 2014 11: 16
    +3
    Quote: baltika-18
    So I would not say "Ha-ha", as the author, they say, "they are all trapped." You should not underestimate your opponent. They did not "eat one dog" on financial fraud.


    In 1998, the West demanded immediate repayment of debt from Russia, and Russian Eurobonds went under the hammer, causing a terrible internal crisis - I hope they remember.

    Ukraine has at least one loophole. In theory, the government can refuse to repay the loan, citing the "odious debts" doctrine. This is a legal concept according to which the new government, which considers the previous government to be a corrupt dictatorship, can refuse the debts of the ousted regime. True, this will still have to prove that the money raised by the government of Viktor Yanukovych was directed not for the public good, but for the personal enrichment of people in power.

    In the case of Ukrainian Eurobonds, the application of this concept is doubtful, according to Western experts in the field of law. Most likely, most of the funds received from Russia went through the Ukrainian treasury, and not its elite, said Eric Pozner, professor of law at the University of Chicago. If so, then Ukraine will have to pay the bills of the former government, the expert said.

    The general principles of international law are that governments inherit the debts accumulated by their predecessors in power. For example, even the new Iraqi government, following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime, decided not to resort to the "odious debt" doctrine and instead restructured the dictator's debts within the Paris Club.

    The new Minister of Economy of Ukraine Pavlo Sheremeta said in an interview with RBC daily in early March that Kiev was not going to give up its debts to Russia. "The possibility of default is not even spoken out. We are already negotiating with the European Union and with other countries. It is thanks to the attraction of money from them that we will not allow default," Sheremeta said.
    In any scenario, Russia will be able to "quietly" sell problem Ukrainian Eurobonds to foreign investors - for example, "vulture funds" specializing in just such debts. Formally, Ukrainian Eurobonds are international securities registered on the Irish Stock Exchange and regulated by English law. Russia "is not bound by any restrictions on the sale of some or all of the securities on the market at any time," as stated in the Eurobond prospectus.

    The author Elena Malysheva gave this answer via the link I provided ..... BUT apparently you did not familiarize yourself with her ..
    1. baltika-18
      baltika-18 13 March 2014 18: 38
      0
      Quote: Santor
      Ukraine has at least one loophole.

      I won’t argue. Time will tell. All that we are now observing is only the beginning of the master plan for restructuring the world.
      I am more and more convinced that they play from one center. All the rest are just "bots in the hands of gamers."
  35. Santor
    13 March 2014 11: 19
    +1
    Quote: tilovaykrisa
    Bayan, it was already.


    I saw this article in RBC and considered it necessary to convey the essence to everyone. And the fact that maybe it was like that - maybe at the same time who wrote. Administrators know better.

    Quote: hhhhhhh
    Bendera simply fascists and have nothing to do with real Ukrainians.


    But I strongly disagree ... They are Ukrainians ... Born, raised and live in Ukraine. Just a different level of thinking, perception and education. Yarosh began with charitable sports clubs, where, according to an ad, he recruited boys and girls from dysfunctional families, where not only coaches, but also experienced teachers worked with them. This did not last a year or two, but practically the last 11 years. The first business trips of club members to the same Estonia took place 8 years ago. And now these young guys (as shown by the video and the Air Force investigation) lead dozens and hundreds of newly created ones.

    But where the local SBU and the Ministry of Internal Affairs looked - that’s the question. I am sure that they reported, but the politicians who ruled Ukraine, including Yanukovych, considered this a normal phenomenon. Because all of them, without exception, consistently led Ukraine into the trenches of confrontation with Russia. And the surprised eyes of Yanukovych were surprised not because he was promised personal preferences .... He was shocked by the meticulous performance of all that was prescribed by overseas owners, and he was famously taken and thrown like a used rag .... Although this was a lesson and for ours in the 5 column, see how many dramatically changed the tone.
  36. Vladimir_NN
    Vladimir_NN 13 March 2014 11: 29
    +1
    Alas, I am far from euphoric, like "We gave the United States a blow!" In my humble opinion, the USA is in chocolate anyway! Here, at a glance:

    (1) Instead of a huge neutral or pro-Russian Ukraine, they will, at a minimum, get the territory of western Ukraine under a missile defense system, their military land and naval bases, with a population that you don’t have to spend money on to maintain hatred of Russia (these Nazi aborigines can take money for the opportunity to fight with Russia)

    (2) AGGRESSOR will again be tagged with a noose in Russia to justify future decisions beneficial to the USA

    (3) The US needs to return the investment in the production of shale hydrocarbons, and they found political a reason to force Europe to make an economically unjustified decision to switch from Russia's energy resources to US energy products (for the USA this is a lot of money, and the growing dependence of Europe on the USA)

    (4) The United States needs conflicts in order to justify the costs of military lobi and its aggressive foreign policy, and it easily received the necessary conflict for little money.

    (5) Russia, instead of investing in its own economy, will be forced to increase its military budget and lose the ability to attract foreign investment, i.e. will slow down its economic growth

    ...

    So, unfortunately, IMHO, while the whole world is playing in a casino organized by the USA, which, in any case, remains a winner.

    All hope that Europe will get tired of this, that the BRIC countries will be able to organize an effective counterbalance to the USA and this casino will be covered ...
    1. Fornit
      Fornit 13 March 2014 12: 02
      0
      Let me disagree with you:
      (1) The more complex the system, the more it is prone to failure, both for internal and external reasons (influences). The Americans already have a crisis of control - this is evident from their throwing like a drunk on the panel ...
      (2) The indicated label is already firmly hanging on their neck. Even schoolchildren in the Congo know about this ... And it is unlikely that Russia's restrained and legally honed policy will correct this physical flaw ... There needs to be something like Hiroshima on our part, and this, as Comrade Sukhov said, is unlikely ...
      (3) All more or less intelligible economists have already calculated the time and financial costs of replacing Russian hydrocarbons. As it turned out, communism in Europe is cheaper and faster to build ... hi
      (4) Do not forget that Nechea is not like just now ... At the Yankees, the state hung on their feet with cores. debt...
      (5) It is still unknown how the difficult international situation will affect the export of capital from Russia - maybe even the flow will weaken, or they will install a thinner filter ... Again for greyhound oligarchs - an oil painting ... angry
  37. Santor
    13 March 2014 11: 29
    +1
    Quote: mihasik
    If the author read his own link in the article "double", then everything is described in more detail and the risks for Russia are great regarding the return of debts. And where did the $ 12 billion fine in the gas debt come from? Can he explain? In the same article of RBC, to which the author refers, it is written that, in aggregate, Ukraine owes 10 billion dollars to Russia, taking into account private debts, which cannot be returned "automatically"! So too optimistic I would say.


    I do not know about the double article ..... I wrote below - this is my personal opinion. Calculated taking into account the falling hryvnia exchange rate (it has fallen by 11% since the beginning of the year), as well as according to Standard Bank analyst Timothy Ash, now the debt ratio conditionally exceeds 50%, taking into account the devaluation of the hryvnia and Ukraine's guaranteed obligations of Naftogaz Ukrainy to Gazprom. So it's not 10 billion ... By the way, this is indirectly evidenced by the fact that both Turchynov and Yatsenyuk voiced the funds that Ukraine needs in the amount of 35 billion, which at that time surprised me very much. Combine the facts now available.
  38. Known who
    Known who 13 March 2014 11: 45
    0
    The author is well done! God grant that it would be so!
  39. Santor
    13 March 2014 11: 54
    +1
    No comments

  40. Klim2011
    Klim2011 13 March 2014 13: 20
    -1
    2. If Ukraine gives 17 billion to get something, then she herself needs at least 15-17 billion for life ... That is, the EU or the IMF or the United States or all together should give Ukraine at least 30 billion. Neither the EU nor the United States has such money. You can take money only from Russia or China, no one else has it.

    And then in China, if Russia agrees, and without it, again, China will not give ...

    Comrades, let's smoke only legal drugs! laughing with all the love for the motherland, we are like cancer before Beijing, so far, so that China would be allowed or not to lend someone.
    By the way, there is not a word about this in the original article.
  41. PPO-1980
    PPO-1980 13 March 2014 13: 54
    0
    Karpov and Kasparov nervously smoke aside !!!!
  42. Arkan
    Arkan 13 March 2014 15: 37
    0
    "1. If I understood correctly, before borrowing from someone, the Ukrainian government is obliged to pay off Russia's debt - this is 2 billion for gas, 3 for Eurobonds and 12 for a fine for gas - a total of 17 billion. Only after that Ukraine can receive tranches and billions from other sources. Therefore, talk of money from the IMF and the US with the EU, taken together, hung in the air. "

    Finally, they did not write contracts on their knees and calculate the guarantees of return. The Americans and the EU will still flutter. Credits in cash are possible, here the former head of the SBU described how the "aid" for the "revolution" came.
    1. seriy_wolk
      seriy_wolk 13 March 2014 20: 05
      0
      why did they make a long commitment
  43. seriy_wolk
    seriy_wolk 13 March 2014 20: 04
    0
    thanks for the opinion
  44. Cynic
    Cynic 13 March 2014 20: 53
    0
    Well, someone like the revolution wanted, by the way in the summer of 14 or 15, and they were played along with the superpower like suckers!
    No matter how the next bank fall falls, or even MAIDANOPAD!
  45. Maaslo Sallonen
    Maaslo Sallonen 14 March 2014 02: 46
    0
    Thanks! Great article! I confess, the President's silence worried. But, as theatergoers say: "The more the artist, the longer the pause!" Handsomely. It's time to destroy the United States, its financial system. Such an enemy cannot be left behind.
  46. Vladimir_NN
    Vladimir_NN 14 March 2014 10: 40
    0
    Quote: Fornit
    Let me disagree with you ...


    Of course, I'm open to sharing thoughts. drinks

    I am ready to agree that your arguments have a right to exist. And at the same time, they do not cancel the dividends I have indicated, which the United States receives in any case. Those. The USA has made / carries out a combination from which it will obviously win. The only question is what they could have gotten more if it were not for the uncontrollable right-wing sector, which began to change "the performance as the play progresses" ...