Military Review

Survival Strategy: Get Credits, Lose Trade

The visit of interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk to the United States was overshadowed by the unexpectedly sad forecast by JP Morgan on the outlook for Ukraine’s GDP in 2014. According to him, instead of the previously expected growth of 0,5%, we are waiting for a decline of 3,2%. Given that last year we reached zero growth, this means a sharp departure in the negative. Therefore, all hope for the best comes down to the size of the operational financial assistance of the West to Ukraine. What actually goes to negotiate Yatsenyuk. The key point of the negotiations is the position of the IMF. The European Commission has already announced that it will not give money until a new loan program is signed with the Fund ...

Like Ukraine, whose population is divided into “pro-Russian” and “pro-European”, so Russia is clearly positioned on “Westerners” and “Russophiles”. This is especially noticeable in Muscovites. The first ones make up the social base of the "belolentochnikov", go to the French cafes "Jean-Jacques" and the restaurants of William Lamberti, criticize corruption and try to protect their offspring from military service. The latter choose places like “Sir” (for the rich) and “Teremok” for the poor, believe Putin, attend church services and get annoyed only by the influx of “guest workers” to Moscow.

These are two very different Russia, each of which is right in its own way, defending views that are opposite in ideology. But almost everyone is united by a feeling of anxiety for the future and the memory of the fears and humiliations of dashing 90s, which in Moscow filled with Chechens, young people with disabilities of the first Caucasian war and nouveau riches like young Tymoshenko, were more tangible than ours.

Therefore, commenting on the forecast of the American investment bank, the largest and most influential in the financial sector, that Ukraine is waiting for, in fact, an economic collapse, none of my Russian interlocutors gloated.

According to local analysts, back in December, they had no doubt that the official forecast of the previous government for this year - the growth of 3% - is unrealistic. Moreover, they did not have confidence that the GDP results for 2013 a year according to our State Statistics Committee (i.e. zero growth) is not an exaggerated figure.

“According to our calculations, you also completed the last year in the red at the level of 1,7-1,9%,” said a representative of one of the major investment companies in Russia in a private conversation. At the same time, he did not agree with the conclusions of JP Morgan, which was caused by three-month protests, problems in the state budget and the introduction of foreign troops.

“Crimea is a recent factor, it has not yet had time to reflect on the statistics,” the expert believes. - The protests certainly influenced, but they also gave rise to the retail sector - by 9,5%. This is almost entirely due to the provision of Maidan and food panic. Construction fell by 14,5%, since it wasn’t at all for everyone to buy apartments, and the industry was at 5%. Such a small figure is due to the fact that the main production facilities were removed from the sites of revolutionary events. Well, and besides, there is the concept of inertia: the technological process cannot be abruptly stopped, there are contracts signed earlier. I think now the fall of the industry will be much more significant. Finally, the most positive news - agriculture withstood stress and increased in 14%. So you will have no problems with food. On the contrary, there may be a problem with sales and overproduction, due to the fact that the Russian market will be largely closed for Ukrainian goods. ”

It is curious that Russian investors, who consider themselves to be part of the “Westerners faction,” have more optimism about Ukraine’s immediate prospects than Russia. Despite the fact that they also have even more gloomy forecasts of independent banking structures, which (first of all, European ones) predict a drop in GDP in 2014 over 7% (!).

“There is nothing wrong with that,” said my interlocutor, “in 2009, against the background of the crisis, your GDP collapsed by 14,8%. But in the end, Ukraine somehow survived. Obviously, she has a chance, as it did after the Orange Revolution, to receive a whole range of preferences from the West. Then she failed to dispose of them. Maybe the second time you get better. ”

At the same time, the Russians note, on the contrary, Russia is entering a strip of economic and political isolation. “It will be very difficult for us to keep investments and partnership with the West in these conditions. Clients constantly call me and ask what they should do if Western banks stop issuing deposits to Russian citizens, commercial transactions are inhibited, and access to private property in Europe and the US is blocked by abolishing visas, ”said an investment company representative, finishing his coffee“ Starbax »In one of the many American coffee houses in Moscow.

However, there is another opinion. And the people who express it are no less successful and intelligent than their colleagues quoted above. “I was amused very much by the comment of one of our commentators, who admired the flawless English pronunciation of your Arseny Yatsenyuk and set it as an example to Russian officials. I told him that in Russia, every third official speaks English, but that does not mean anything. Kisa Vorobyaninov also begged for alms in several languages. This is actually what Ukraine is doing now, ”said a representative of another well-known Russian financial corporation in a private conversation.

He says that his specialists have already analyzed the first steps of the new Ukrainian government in the economic field. And they came to the conclusion that, despite the declared willingness to make any concessions to the IMF in terms of gas tariffs or budget cuts, conflict with business is inevitable and is approaching at the speed of a hurricane.

“The Ukrainian press, busy counting the promised financial assistance, somehow missed the fact that the new government team had returned to the idea of ​​reimbursing VAT with modified financial bills. Although they had previously criticized their predecessors (the financial unit of the former Cabinet of Ministers) for non-transparent bill of exchange schemes, my interlocutor notes. - Moreover, in February, VAT refunds dropped sharply. In the behavior of Ukraine is seen an attempt, without declaring a default, to evade the fulfillment of obligations under loans. Both public and private. Now we hear about, for example, that the agreements with Russia are invalid and you can not give back the debts of Russia. Including private business (banks), redeeming Eurobonds.

But it is not a secret that Russian structures that bought Eurobonds, as a rule, are not national in terms of their capital, but transnational. Thus, trying to "throw" the Russian Eurobond holders, the new team can seriously hurt the American or European companies that are the parent structures of investment funds. "

It is with these factors that Moscow financial analysts explain the slowness with which the West in practice gives us the help promised in words. More precisely, not yet issued. As the vice-president of the European Commission, Olli Rehn, said, the first tranche of financial aid to Ukraine from the European Union will be received only when the authorities agree on a new loan program with the International Monetary Fund.

“One of our aid channels is macroeconomic aid with a volume of 1,6 billion euros in support of stabilization and economic reform. The first tranche of this assistance could be immediately allocated as soon as an agreement is reached with the IMF and as soon as Ukraine begins serious economic reforms, ”said Rehn.

Agree that these words are somewhat contrasted with the statement of Arseniy Yatsenyuk that the EU will give Ukraine $ 2 billion. Similarly, one should not fall into the euphoria of the decision of the European Commission unilaterally to reduce customs duties on Ukrainian goods. Now it must be finally approved in the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament.

The essence of the preference is not to wait for the creation of a free trade zone between the EU and Ukraine and to introduce in advance a section on tariffs using trade preferences. In particular, we are talking about the fact that Europe is unilaterally ready to reduce or eliminate customs duties on goods produced in Ukraine, but only for a limited period of time - until November 1, 2014. Then the Agreement on a free trade zone between Ukraine and the EU will be signed and will take effect.

At first glance, Brussels gives Kiev a royal gift. Judge for yourself - all existing tariffs for manufactured goods will be immediately removed from 94,7% of products. For the remaining types of goods (some chemical products, etc.) tariffs will be reduced. For agricultural goods and food, the lion’s share of exports will be granted immediate and unlimited preferences, and duty-free tariff quotas are provided for the remainder. But as you know, the devil is hiding in the details.

According to experts, those exporters who already work for the European market will be able to benefit from benefits. Yes, customs taxes were removed, but nobody canceled certification, and the lion’s share of Ukrainian products is not certified for the European market. Agricultural companies that supplied grain to Europe, of course, benefit. But for the most part these are joint ventures with transnational capital. And the question of where they pay basic taxes - in Ukraine or in Europe - is the key here.

But this is not important. Everyone understands that the European benefits - this is compensation for Ukraine losses from the reduction of trade with Russia. By reducing tariffs, Ukrainian exporters, according to calculations by Europeans, will save about 500 million euros, of which almost 400 million euros fall on the agricultural sector. At the same time, only in January, Russia reduced the import of Ukrainian goods by more than a third, to $ 698,3 million. If such dynamics continue, then in 2014, Russia will buy Ukrainian goods by no more than $ 8,5 billion. successful for mutual trade 2013 year, Ukrainian exports to Russia amounted to $ 15,1 billion. This is the question of losses and acquisitions on the way to the transition to a targeted European integration.
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  1. Roman Skomorokhov
    Roman Skomorokhov 13 March 2014 22: 53
    This is understood by the respected Galina, I understand this, it understands the devil knows how many people. And only Yatsenyuk does not understand. He just needs money to kill. What for? And then, to snatch his own and topple it, until Yarosh hit him. Here is my opinion.
  2. zvereok
    zvereok 13 March 2014 22: 59
    Cool. Europeans and staffers will now wring out all the stolen capital in order to improve their affairs. And then they will come to us - the world is friendship, chewing gum. Nooo. Break with the West, so break !!!.
  3. moremansf
    moremansf 13 March 2014 23: 00
    Guys, let's live together and you will have everything !!! And foreign countries simply won’t help, the clamp has already been prepared !!!
  4. zanoza
    zanoza 13 March 2014 23: 01
    Such pragmatic USA and Europe, "to death" are fighting with Russia for the impoverished, currently, Ukraine, by and large, they do not need ???? request
    They are fighting for a burden on their economies, they are ready to give money, in exchange for Kiev’s fickleness and concessions, if only to annoy Russia.
    They are afraid of Russia, they are afraid to trembling knees, the Balts and Poles have a persistent "diarrhea" of fear, which allows them to beg for additional money for "toilet paper" and air protection ...
    The United States, in general, cannot understand, from the mindset of why we are opposed to their world politics, we are not creepy like Europe ...
  5. Committee
    Committee 13 March 2014 23: 01
    Everything is played out by sheet music. But it may turn out that completely different people will inherit and repay the debts, when these guys - Yatsenyuk and the company leave for their "small homelands".
    1. Riperbahn
      Riperbahn 13 March 2014 23: 10
      Well then what? They drove themselves into it. So we will take something for debts :) The practice of bailiffs is our guiding light :)
      1. Committee
        Committee 13 March 2014 23: 14
        So the fact of the matter is that the calculation is that it is not for us to take, but for those who give, the IMF, the EU, who else is there? Now this gang of debts will incur, cut and wash off, and will have to give back to ordinary Ukrainians, and to everyone, both "red" and "white" and "brown", bankruptcy shines, in simple words.
        1. Egoza
          14 March 2014 00: 29
          Quote: Committee
          but to give to ordinary Ukrainians, and to everyone, both "red" and "white" and "brown", bankruptcy shines, in simple words.

          That is why it is necessary to prove that the current government is illegitimate, and all its treaties have no force !!! And if someone doesn’t like something, then let them be charged from specific persons — the names are known !!! moreover, they will be found there in Europe and the USA !!!
    2. The comment was deleted.
  6. Wellych
    Wellych 13 March 2014 23: 05
    From associated press:
    Congress won't be able to authorize aid to Ukraine until after March 24 amid disagreements among several Republican.

    Carrots at the end of a stick.
    SHAKESPEARE 13 March 2014 23: 12
    Mikhailo Lomonosov said that Russia is so large that it is, in fact, an independent continent that could not depend on anyone. It’s time for us to think long ago not to look around the world in difficult situations, but to stand firmly in our own territory. With a reasonable approach, Russia will have enough to provide for itself.
    And all the threats from the SS of Europe and the USA of Russia to one place, but without it, they will wither and crumble in their deceitful shit democracy and their rotten values, whose hands are bloodied in the dictate of democracy to the world community. How many more people and enslavement of countries should perish in order to satisfy the appetite of world democracy.
    1. Committee
      Committee 13 March 2014 23: 19
      This is all true, about standing firmly, not depending on anyone, but under the condition that there is no fifth column or under the condition that they all sit in the cells - then yes, go ahead!
  8. voliador
    voliador 13 March 2014 23: 14
    Yes, not for this did the egg go to the monkey. He came to report: "Master, we are doing everything as ordered."
    1. papik09
      papik09 14 March 2014 06: 07
      ... And get a "salary" wassat
  9. Shesternyack
    Shesternyack 13 March 2014 23: 20
    Quote: Committee
    when these guys - Yatsenyuk and the company will leave for their "small homelands".

    They will definitely disperse, do not go to the grandmother. But first - this is a small but proud company will sort the promised loans into their pockets. So that nothing distracts the "small homeland" from thinking about how else to "help" the Ukrainian people crying . Well, they will go to conferences with stories about how they built democracy, where without it hi
    1. Committee
      Committee 13 March 2014 23: 23
      Yeah, and about how we prevented them from building it! About it for sure, with foam at the mouth!
      1. Egoza
        14 March 2014 00: 32
        Quote: Committee
        Yeah, and about how we prevented them from building it! About it for sure, with foam at the mouth!

        And all this will be commented on by "the poor widow of Gongadze" (who is still not clear whether he was killed or not), but she was immediately attached to TV as a journalist in the USA !!!
  10. Leopold
    Leopold 13 March 2014 23: 25
    They are waiting for what these mad russians will do. Otherwise, you will invest in the "privatization" of a viable business, and then again - a referendum, secession, nationalization.
  11. The comment was deleted.
  12. uzer 13
    uzer 13 13 March 2014 23: 42
    Yatsenyuk can get only a little financial assistance to support the Kiev criminal gang regime. The economy and the financial system of Ukraine can no longer be saved, default is inevitable. Rather, theoretically it is still possible, but no one will give so much money to the bankrupt. If it weren’t for the help of Russia, it would already be The regions of Ukraine adjacent to the Russian border should hurry up and follow the example of Crimea. Otherwise, vacancies may end and they will have to turn into miserable suburbs of Poland and Romania and become poor in poverty.
    SHAKESPEARE 13 March 2014 23: 42
    On March 9, 2014, in the city of Lugansk, participants in thousands of peaceful mitins from all regions of the Lugansk Region decided to hold a local referendum on March 16, 2014 on the federal structure of the state, on Ukraine joining the Customs Union, on the status of the Russian language as the state language. The rally resulted in the raising of the Russian flag above the building of the Regional Council, and the resignation of the governor appointed by Kiev.

    Lugansk police went over to the side of the people. But the Kiev illegitimate authorities ordered the dispersal of peaceful demonstrators by the armed forces of Ukraine. A physical reprisal is being prepared over the Russian-speaking population, over civilians of the Lugansk region. We have a little less than an hour.

    Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich! We ask you to act as a guarantor of the constitutional rights of Russian and Russian-speaking people in the Lugansk region, who protect the integrity and blood ties of the Slavic people in Ukraine.

    Lugansk Guard
  14. Cossacks
    Cossacks 14 March 2014 00: 13
    In how to share it described. Toko, I didn’t understand if Putin and the rest of the Democrats are from the same deck. And I would like to see all of them, in one place I will not say in which one, then I am a Westerner or Russophile. Wider need to think. There is such an idea that all the problems are from the intelligentsia. What Lenin wrote in a letter to Gorky. And who instilled cosmopolitanism in Russia. In short, you need to somehow understand, there are Russians and the fifth column. And no matter what orientation, this same 5th column of the western eastern or generally pederastic. They all need to know their place, and not live at the expense of the people. The most popular and authoritative ones jumped up - all kinds of jesters like Kobzon, Makarevich, even singers of not heavy behavior tell their vision of life. And when I remember the journalists, I remember at the same time that it’s time to put the Belomor channel for reconstruction.
  15. Sevastopol
    Sevastopol 14 March 2014 01: 16
    Do you think they only ask for money in the west? The day before yesterday in ukrSMI:
    The Minister of Economy of Ukraine managed to reach his Russian counterpart

    The Russian loan of $ 3 billion received by Ukraine “dissolved”, without fundamentally changing the situation in the Ukrainian economy. This was stated by the Minister of Economy of Ukraine Pavel Sheremet.

    “The credit of Russia has dissolved somewhere. I hope, at best, for some kind of social expenses and expenses. He may have relieved the tension that was at the end of the year, ”the minister said on the air of Ekho Moskvy radio station.

    When asked whether Ukraine would ask Russia to continue to implement the agreement on the presentation of the remaining parts of the $ 15 billion loan, Sheremeta emphasized that Kiev insists on the confirmation of the agreements that were signed earlier. “The agreement is valid. Any money will not be superfluous. We would like it to be on acceptable market conditions. To make Ukrainian securities interesting for Russian funds too, ”he explained.

    Kiev insists! ??? - normal
    1. papik09
      papik09 14 March 2014 06: 13
      "Kiev insists! ??? - normalek"
      Yes, they are completely dead am With them, only those who fuss about the money for maydown and have allocated them clatter. laughing
  16. Cristall
    Cristall 14 March 2014 01: 38
    yes usual strategy ... more Yusch is done ... when it matched the global crisis as a result of the "Ukrainian economic miracle" have happened "2 polupopiya Negro"
  17. housekeeper
    housekeeper 14 March 2014 02: 48
    Briefing by the Prime Minister of Ukraine before a trip to Brussels laughing
  18. muks
    muks 14 March 2014 04: 22
    Maybe you shouldn't take the author's percentage calculations too close to heart, but pay attention to this - there was also a mess before the October Revolution. The rich also gathered in some places, and poorer in others. They said they were dissatisfied ... The Emperor published Manifestos, deigned to acquire the Duma. In the Duma of that time, by the way, tickets were sold, there is cleaner hohlyatsky hopak in pinzhakas and without, and even with such unprintable turns! There is something similar, only a gigantic difference in INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION. Then - zazhralis .. Tsar-father Nikolai Alexandrovich was a gentle man, and even was born on the day of Job the Great Martyr. And they stole it like industrial women (oligarchs)! Looks like it too! We were unlucky, grief from the "mind"! But if ... THE LEADER OF THE EMPIRE WAS ... Pyotr Alekseevich? The water was muddied by students and freemasons (there were no fascists then), and the Bolsheviks washed Russia with blood. Just imagine what a country could be if a certain number of muddy sheep were soaked in the outhouse in time? What could the RUSSIAN EMPIRE be like if it had not entered the First World War? It is clear that the Second simply would not exist, for in 20 years of development it would have been ... What a Hitler, what a Churchill! At the present time, your mother tyagnibok, processes are taking place that are very similar - the life of the Russian people for the sake of the talkers? Anyone - democrats, fair, liberal, oppositionists! They all pursue their purely material interest and lie. LIES - because in the RULES OF THE PUBLIC HOSTEL, which is called the Bible, everything is said, and there are TEN COMMANDMENTS OF GOD. So no, he is a Gugnya in a red pinjack with his "truth" climbing! Look at this ukkkrainian physiomord that rules there! Explain, please, who and what you need to be, so as not only to believe the promises of this down, but just to look at him! This creature cannot be a "brotherly Ukrainian people"! As well as the rest ... sold off the army, plundered the treasury. Whoever is in business is silent; who didn’t get it - YES WITH ANY SLEDGER THE SALOON WILL GO! Until they stop ...
    1. papik09
      papik09 14 March 2014 06: 15
      .... And such can only be stopped by a bullet ... drinks hi
  19. mamont5
    mamont5 14 March 2014 06: 10
    It would be nice to recall such old lines:
    The more I look at the expanse of snow
    I think all the more persistently.
    Why, our Siberia
    Richer than yellow California.
    With these ore reserves
    We are not afraid of any
    World blockade.
    Just work! Just work hard!
    And in the republic will be,
    What anyone needs.

    S. A. Yesenin, “Country of villains”
  20. Chifka
    Chifka 14 March 2014 08: 10
    Maybe I don’t understand something, but a loan is such a thing, which then will have to be returned, and even with interest. Who should I give a loan to in Ukraine now, if everything is acting, acting as a temporary acting student, etc. and the like, real power, and all the more stable and long-term, is not and is not expected. And where to spend this loan? To rebuild the industry? Now Ukraine is not up to it. On a social network? This means stupidly eating it in order to bring down the intensity of social passions.
    I think that the current rulers are in a hurry to beg for money, just to cut it before May 25 and topple it over, because they certainly won’t stay in the leaders. And it is violet to them that the burden of duty will fall on those who come after.
  21. Horn
    Horn 14 March 2014 08: 20
    Everyone understands everything, but everything is being done so that the surname "Scent Egg" would mean the main occupation of the Ukrainian population.
  22. inkass_98
    inkass_98 14 March 2014 10: 08
    I recall two ancient jokes:
    1. At school, children were asked to write an essay on the topic: "What would I do if I were president?" The content was different for everyone, but the ending is the same: "And hell would you see me in this country"
    2. Every year, Ukraine promises to put into operation the power units of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. Every year, the EU and Russia allot money to Ukraine to build alternative power plants and not touch Chernobyl. In such a simple way, Ukraine receives 3-4 billion dollars a year.
    Already not funny, rall at the doorstep.