Ukraine is a multinational country. The crisis of the Ukrainian statehood has already provoked the actual separation of the predominantly Russian-speaking Crimea; Kharkov, Donetsk, Odessa prepared for the creation of their autonomies. Ukraine’s neighbors are increasingly calling for a review of state borders, with Romania and Hungary being the most active. It is possible that if Crimea becomes a part of the Russian Federation, Bucharest will make territorial claims to Ukraine, and seriously raise the issue of ownership of Northern Bukovina and Southern Bessarabia.
Journalists and writer on the Romanian invasion of Ukraine
About possible disagreements between Ukraine and Romania and Hungary were spoken during the "standing on the Maidan." Then the leader of the Communist Party of Ukraine, Petro Symonenko, said that if an association with the EU was signed, Ukraine would have to meet its European neighbors and abandon some of the territories that became part of the state as a result of the Great Patriotic War.
About the same say many Russian and European journalists. So, the influential Romanian newspaper Adevarul wonders what Romania will do if Ukraine starts a civil war? Should I intervene in the conflict in order to protect the Romanian-speaking population? Journalists are calling on Romanian politicians to decide on whether Chernivtsi and Odessa regions need Romania, and if they are needed, isn’t it time to act?
Romanian media write that the Ukrainian army is demoralized, and the personnel have not yet decided whether to submit to the new authorities of the republic. In such conditions, the entry of Romanian troops into the territory will be a matter of hours: no one expects serious resistance.
Interest in the military-political novel “Blood on the Dniester”, written by Romanian writer Christian Negre, was revived. This book saw the light of the year in 2012 and caused a stir: it describes a hypothetical conflict between Ukraine and Romania, which should occur in the year of 2014. Interestingly, the novel describes a coup d'état in Kiev, which in its plot marked the beginning of the Romanian-Ukrainian confrontation.
True, in the Christian Negre novel, the aggressor is not Romania, but Ukraine: its armed forces are attacking Chisinau through the territory of Transnistria, after which Romania decides to help Moldova and sends troops to Ukraine. Bucharest enjoys the support of NATO partners - first Eastern European and then Western. Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Turkey together destroy Ukraine, and each demands to return the territories that once belonged to it.
Russia in the novel is fighting on the side of Ukraine and is a kind of “evil empire”. In general, “Blood on the Dniester” was criticized for excessive Russophobia and militancy.
Christian Negri’s artistic fabrications are justified: there are about 150 thousand Romanians living in Ukraine. Most of them settled in Bukovina, the smaller - in Bessarabia. However, many Moldovans live in the south of the Odessa region, whom Bucharest considers to be ethnic Romanians.
To date, the Romanian embassies are actively engaged in the certification of Romanians and Moldovans. Citizenship is granted under a simplified scheme to almost everyone who wants it - the main thing is to know at least the basics of the Romanian language. On the eve of the “revolution”, the Ukrainian authorities seriously considered the Romanian problem as one of the most difficult challenges to national security.
Romania also waged "environmental wars" in the lower Danube: Romanian engineers built canals to divert water in such a way as to deliberately dehydrate the Ukrainian part of the Danube Delta. But when Ukraine began to deepen its navigable canals, Romanian environmentalists “bombed” European authorities with complaints of attempts to change the natural balance in the natural environment of the delta.
In 2009, Romania sued a part of Ukraine’s sea area near Snake Island, located a few dozen kilometers east of where the Danube flows into the Black Sea. Presumably, the coastal shelf in the area of the island is rich in hydrocarbons. After this loud trial, Kiev was concerned about the security of its southern border, including beginning to be afraid that Romania would arrogate the islands of Maykan and Ermakov to the mouth of the Danube.
In Transcarpathia, everything is also not easy: this region is practically cut off from the rest of Ukraine by the Carpathian Mountains, and you can get there only by a few high-mountain roads. In winter, Transcarpathia is completely under blockade - all the ways are covered with snow. In this regard, the population of the region has little in common with those Ukrainians who live east of the Carpathians, because it developed in geographic and political isolation from the Galicians.
In addition, the Carpathian Mountains make it easy to capture the region: it is enough to install roadblocks on the mountain roads, and hardly anyone can get into Transcarpathia from the “big Ukraine”. In January, 2014 in the pages of the publicationNews Transcarpathia ”was described the likely scenario of the invasion of foreign troops into the territory of the region.
150 thousands of Hungarians live in Transcarpathia, their settlements are located in its flat part - along the Hungarian border. In the mountains live Rusyns, speaking their own language. There are Romanians in the region - but they are a minority, and they are compactly settled along the Romanian border.
In contrast to Romania, Hungary does not pursue a passport policy, however, according to the constitution adopted in 2012, it is responsible for all Hungarians living outside of it. That is, guided by the constitution, Budapest has the full right to send troops to protect the Hungarian population of Ukraine.
Romania and Hungary are not allies: three million Hungarians living in the Romanian part of the Carpathians intend to create their own state. Budapest still cannot forgive Bucharest for the loss of Transylvania, and is ready to put forward territorial claims to Romania if Ukraine begins a revision of state borders.
Non-intervention policy? ..
Despite its belligerent actions and statements, Romania is not ready for decisive deployment of troops into the territory of Ukraine. In Budapest and Bucharest, they are closely following Russian policy towards Russian-speaking residents of Ukraine: will Moscow provide them with humanitarian aid? Will they respond to requests to support the “Russian Spring”? Will the troops enter to protect the Russians from pogroms?
Romanian and Hungarian politicians, in order not to escalate the situation, will follow exactly in the footsteps of Russia, copying any of its actions. It is important for Romania and Hungary to see what the reaction will be to certain actions of Russia in order to adequately assess their military and diplomatic capabilities.
Only having studied the Russian experience, Budapest and Bucharest will move from words to actions. True, for this you need to get agreement from the United States, which has now taken the side of Ukraine - but the situation is unstable and can change at any time. Half a year ago, no one could predict that power in Kiev would be seized by the junta. Who knows what Ukraine will become in six months, and what will be the views of the United States?
Having taken a wait-and-see attitude, Romania and Hungary are still preparing for the use of their armed forces abroad. First of all, this applies to Romania, whose military personnel under the auspices of the United States took part in operations in the Middle East and gained experience in actual hostilities. Such specialists will be useful in Bukovina, where the mountainous landscape complicates the conduct of an offensive war. Everything is simpler from the south of the Odessa region: it will be able to occupy it in a day, as the steppe stretches here, and there are no seriously armed and trained military units.
Romania will also defeat Ukraine at sea, especially given the fact that the personnel of the Ukrainian Navy is demoralized, and many officers swear allegiance to the Crimean authorities. Leftovers fleet Ukraine is unlikely to cope with the Romanian warships, even if the weapons of Romania are a little outdated.
However, Romania, having occupied half of the Odessa region, will definitely face the massive resistance of the local Russian-speaking population: история showed that Romanian nationalism will be more terrible than Ukrainian. Also, do not forget that the Republic of Novorossia, if established, will begin to claim the whole Odessa region, and not its part. Therefore, the Great Romania will surely become the enemy of Russia, especially since it invades the territory of Moldova and friendly Transnistria as a bonus, trying to occupy Bender.