Military Review

Gas redistribution of the world: why Russia proroll to China

41
Gas redistribution of the world: why Russia proroll to ChinaIn May, during Vladimir Putin’s visit to the PRC, a Russian-Chinese agreement on gas supply is expected, finally containing the price formula. Then only real preparation of the project can begin. This signing has been postponed more than once, but this time the likelihood that a compromise will be reached is great. We traditionally try to keep track of the plot. news and changes in the positions of the parties. What has changed since our last comment on this?


Sakhalin gas China will not get yet ...

At the end of last week, the media, at the suggestion of the newspaper Vedomosti, discussed the news - a major discovery of oil deposits in the Yuzhno-Kirinskoye field (the Sakhalin-3 project developed by Gazprom). Previously, the field was considered predominantly gas, and the reserves from it were to go to the first line for liquefying the Vladivostok LNG plant, and also, mixing with Yakut and Irkutsk gas, and through the pipeline to China. Gas reserves were also increased compared with earlier estimates, but only slightly.

The emergence of such large oil reserves is a great success. The reserves are estimated at the level of 464 million tons - a little less than the annual production of our entire country. There were no such major discoveries at all.

Nevertheless, the discovery of oil reserves will inevitably make changes to the production strategy at the Yuzhno-Kirinskoye field: in order to extract energy resources as much as possible, you first need to start producing oil reserves and only after some time it will be possible to return to gas. This means that the launch of the Vladivostok LNG project may be postponed for several years.

There are no special problems. From a financial point of view, this option is even better - oil is much easier to transport, and revenues to the budget will be higher than in the case of prime gas production. And the gas - it will not go anywhere, will remain for the future.

And for our talks with China on the supply of pipe gas - this is also an additional plus.

First, with such a development in the coming years, less LNG will appear on the Asian market (compared to the possible launch of Vladivostok LNG), competition for LNG on the market will increase, and prices will rise. Accordingly, China will be more interested in Russian pipeline gas.

Secondly, as we have already noted, part of the gas from Yuzhno-Kirinskiy could go into the Chinese pipe, and this would be the most “quick” gas that would come to China, both in terms of the speed of gas pipeline construction and the pace of field development.

It will be more difficult with Kovykta (Irkutsk Region) and Chayanda (Yakutia), which means that if China really wants to get gas in a reasonable time, the PRC simply does not have time to stretch the negotiations.

Another positive point: we have already noted that it is a pity to send gas from Sakhalin to China via a pipe - it is better to let it run on LNG. If the development of gas reserves of Yuzhno-Kirinsky is postponed, then it will be so.

In the "minus" for the new version of the development of the field - a later exit of gas from Vladivostok LNG to the market. According to some forecasts, after 2020, there will be enough liquefied gas on the market, contract prices may decline. But this is just one of the versions. In the US, there is still no progress with the construction of new liquefaction plants, and Asian demand may be generally underestimated.

... and South Korea also claims to East Siberian gas intended for the PRC

At the same time, the Russian side began to "troll" China on the subject of pipeline supplies to South Korea - through the territory of the PRC. Recall that pipeline supply projects to the Republic of Korea (the LNG country is already buying from us) have been discussed repeatedly: options for an undersea gas pipeline (it turns out expensive), and pipes through the DPRK (very risky) were considered. And now the third option is being discussed again - through the territory of the PRC.

Moreover, for these purposes, Irkutsk gas (Kovykta), which, as Beijing believed, is not going anywhere, can be used (to bring it to Vladivostok and to liquefy it too expensive). Of course, China is not enthusiastic about this idea and will in every possible way slow down the possible construction of a gas pipeline through its territory.

But to do this, saving the face, will not be so easy, because right now there are prospects for improving relations between the PRC and the ROK and the latter’s departure from American influence. Against such a background, demonstratively taking an anti-Korean stance on this issue will be more difficult for China.

At the same time, relations with South Korea and Russia are improving. Recall that it was Korea that was largely devoted to the fall Asian visit of Vladimir Putin, which we have already written about.

There is not only a buildup of gas exports (and if Korea reduces the share of nuclear power plants in its power generation, it will need significant additional gas volumes). More importantly - the planned joint construction of tankers for LNG and other vessels for oil and gas production, joint projects on shipbuilding capacities - both in the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan and in Russia.
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http://www.odnako.org/blogs/gazoviy-peredel-mira-zachem-rossiya-protrollila-kitay/
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  1. AVV
    AVV 28 February 2014 13: 19
    +40
    All this is good, we sell gas, but what about anything for our generations? So you need to sell liquefied gas more and more expensively and not just stupidly pump gas for the cordon, but you also need to process it, this also applies to crude oil, it’s better to sell gasoline, fuel oil and components of deep processing, and not stupidly to sell wood round timber !!! Or will there be other opinions ???
    1. Ari100kraT
      Ari100kraT 28 February 2014 13: 28
      +7
      Quote: AVV
      Therefore, you need to sell more liquefied gas and it is more expensive and not just stupidly pump gas for the cordon, but you must also process it

      Here is to write a stupid comment is it to be the "first"? Liquefying gas, renting gas carriers, liquefying gas are unnecessary costs. Gazprom works with regular customers under long-term contracts, and here gas pipelines are more profitable and the geographical position of Russia and customers allows them to be used (gas pipelines).
      As for the processing of timber and oil, I completely agree with you, although Russia does keep eggs at the expense of the forest, Finland wink
      1. avg
        avg 28 February 2014 13: 58
        +5
        Quote: Ari100krat
        Liquefying gas, renting gas carriers, liquefying gas are extra costs.

        Liquefied gas for Russia is the freedom of consumer choice. Here, laws like European "energy charters and energy packages" do not work. The argument for Russia being in the circle of "friends and partners" is not unimportant at all.
        Yes, about Finland. Our round timber for them is a concession for the consent of the Finns to lay the Nord Stream in their waters.
        1. Ari100kraT
          Ari100kraT 28 February 2014 14: 08
          +1
          Quote: avg
          Liquefied gas for Russia is the freedom of consumer choice. Here, laws like European "energy charters and energy packages" do not work. The argument for Russia being in the circle of "friends and partners" is not unimportant at all.

          Russia already has "consumers" (gas buyers) above the roof, sometimes (in winter) even gas is not enough from the underground gas storage facilities, and the laws regarding liquefied gas can "work", block the path of gas carriers, like two fingers on asphalt (non-environmental friendliness , explosiveness, traffic congestion, etc.). Gas pipelines have already been built or are under construction, that is, money has been invested and should be paid off. It is unnecessary to exchange now for the construction of gas liquefaction plants and the lease (construction) of gas carriers. They seem to be building in the Far East for supplies to China and the Yapas with the Koreans, but there it is a necessity.
          My first comment was aimed at the absurdity of gas liquefaction, the Saud simply do not have the ability to build gas pipelines, and that’s why they invest in rocking the boat in the BV to change the modes they need so that they can be built.
          1. avg
            avg 28 February 2014 17: 47
            +1
            Quote: Ari100krat
            block the way for gas carriers, like two fingers on asphalt (non-environmental friendliness, explosion hazard, traffic congestion, etc.).

            Well, as for the fingers on the asphalt I can’t judge, but blocking the path for gas carriers is problematic. Firstly, the gas carrier is not a flying Dutchman, but is going to fulfill the contract, i.e. acts within the framework of a specific agreement and within the framework of existing international law of the sea Secondly, hypothetically, this may concern the Black Sea straits, but there are no LNG plants there, no one is going to build, and the Turks themselves are sitting on our gas pipeline.
            Thirdly, to solve such issues, the Navy exists.
      2. Vadivak
        Vadivak 28 February 2014 14: 36
        +7
        Quote: Ari100krat
        the truth at the expense of the forest Russia Finland holds eggs


        The ruthless felling of our forests by the Finns is this called holding? In Russia, for understanding, about 130-135 million cubic meters of wood is harvested annually annually (that is, tiny Suomi harvests forests only 1,8 times less than giant Russia). In most cases, deforestation is carried out by barbaric methods, if they plant a new forest instead of the cut down, then we do not. And what a shame they cut him down by our own "entrepreneurs"

        However, the IKEA Swedes are not far behind, the Swedwood sawmill is located in Kostomuksha. Information that Swedwood fells Karelian pine trees of the age of 500-600
        years come from a number of Swedish environmental organizations

        So your "holds" sounds like a mockery
        1. Ari100kraT
          Ari100kraT 28 February 2014 14: 49
          0
          Quote: Vadivak
          So your "holds" sounds like a mockery

          I didn’t scoff or even planned to do it.
          You yourself wrote that this is done by the hands of our "entrepreneurs", I would also remind you that there is a high percentage of smuggling. And about the "Russian business" many copies have already been broken, they live like "the last day in the world" without looking back at "tomorrow" and the life of descendants, but these are the Laws in Russia, and especially control over their implementation. In oil production, everything is even worse in terms of ecology ...
          1. Vadivak
            Vadivak 28 February 2014 16: 20
            +1
            Quote: Ari100krat
            Laws in Russia are such, and especially control over their implementation.


            Well, sort of got to the bottom of the truth.
      3. The comment was deleted.
      4. starpom
        starpom 28 February 2014 15: 54
        +4
        Quote: Ari100krat
        the truth at the expense of the forest Russia Finland holds eggs

        ... and the wasteland in Karelia leaves. The local population has already switched to careers. Started stone mining on an industrial scale
    2. mountain
      mountain 28 February 2014 13: 31
      +7
      There are no other opinions, it is time from raw materials, a high-quality product to produce.
      1. Vadivak
        Vadivak 28 February 2014 15: 16
        +2
        Quote: mountain
        There are no other opinions, it is time from raw materials, a high-quality product to produce.


        I support completely and completely, only I drink it
      2. The comment was deleted.
    3. old rocket man
      old rocket man 28 February 2014 13: 34
      +1
      Quote: AVV
      All this is good, we sell gas, but what about anything for our generations? So you need to sell liquefied gas more and more expensively and not just stupidly pump gas for the cordon, but you also need to process it, this also applies to crude oil, it’s better to sell gasoline, fuel oil and components of deep processing, and not stupidly to sell wood round timber !!! Or will there be other opinions ???


      Who will argue, of course, is better.
      But it is not always more profitable, and always more difficult. "Components" of deep processing still need to be sold, the demand for them is subject to market fluctuations and high competition, in addition, high capital investments are required, and gas and oil are always in demand and the demand for them is only growing.
      1. Vladimirets
        Vladimirets 28 February 2014 13: 41
        +1
        Quote: Old Rocketman
        "Components" of deep processing still need to be sold, the demand for them is subject to market fluctuations and high competition, in addition, high capital investments are required

        We must also add the appropriate quality of the product with which we have constant problems.
        1. Vladimirets
          Vladimirets 28 February 2014 13: 56
          +1
          Minus refinery worker slapped?
          1. Tersky
            Tersky 28 February 2014 14: 11
            +6
            Quote: Vladimirets
            Minus refinery worker slapped?

            Gazprom .. laughing ! On the joys that dreams come true .. laughing Eugene, hi !
            1. Vladimirets
              Vladimirets 28 February 2014 14: 22
              +1
              Quote: Tersky
              Gazprom ..! To celebrate that dreams come true ..

              smile hi
          2. Ari100kraT
            Ari100kraT 28 February 2014 14: 13
            +3
            Quote: Vladimirets
            Minus refinery worker slapped?

            I see, they generally like to minus, and they don’t even look into the logic of the comment or its absurdity, the main thing is that my dog ​​doesn’t leave a single tree or pillar on a walk without attention. laughing
      2. demel2
        demel2 28 February 2014 17: 17
        +1
        Quote: Old Rocketman
        high capital investment required

        Yes, our businessmen will always find a trickster so that they don’t invest money in their own country. It is profitable for the whole world to process oil to the final product, but it is not profitable for us. Is your name not Abramovich by chance?
    4. chunga-changa
      chunga-changa 28 February 2014 14: 03
      +1
      Here, not long ago, everyone wrote that it’s not good that we sell engines for rockets to Americans, now oil and gas is not good to sell. What to sell then? How do your parents pay pensions? Maybe you pay taxes completely? Let’s pay pensions from them and raise the country, build aircraft carriers, nuclear missiles, fly into space. Are you ready to give 75% of your salary for taxes? The components of deep processing with gasoline are not something that everyone can boil in any quantities, the bulk of oil and gas are raw materials for the production of plastics and chemicals, that's why they are taken as much as they are and in turn they become. And about deep processing, if you think it’s easy and fun to google Bhopal, and then imagine that you are going to build a similar plant in your city.
    5. pensioner
      pensioner 28 February 2014 16: 41
      0
      Quote: AVV
      Well, what about our generations?

      Yes, stay! yes The shelf is an unplowed field for geologists. Eastern Siberia, by and large, too. Even Western Siberia is constantly replenishing its reserves. We must drill: deeper and wider - and we will be happy.
  2. olegff68
    olegff68 28 February 2014 13: 31
    +2
    The Saudis have already realized that oil is not for long and are putting money into tourism, etc.
    We would have to invest more in energy and engineering ....
    1. Vladimirets
      Vladimirets 28 February 2014 13: 42
      +3
      Quote: olegff68
      The Saudis have already realized that oil is not for long and are putting money into tourism

      If the Saudis did not have Mecca, then they would not have a single tourist.
    2. old rocket man
      old rocket man 28 February 2014 13: 45
      +3
      Quote: olegff68
      We would have to invest more in energy and engineering


      have what to investTo invest more, you must first and then, the mining industry, energy and engineering are more closely connected than it seems at first glance.
  3. DNX1970
    DNX1970 28 February 2014 13: 34
    +1
    That's right - we are changing Russian gas to Korean technologies. The gas will end, there will be something else (maybe already), and we really need technologies after the 90s. And RK is not China!
  4. VADEL
    VADEL 28 February 2014 13: 43
    +6
    Quote: Ari100krat
    the truth at the expense of the forest Russia Finland holds eggs

    Sorry. And how do we hold Finland for the "eggs"
    1. Ari100kraT
      Ari100kraT 28 February 2014 13: 51
      +4
      Quote: VADEL
      Sorry. And how do we hold Finland for the "eggs"

      The "dates" have many pulp and paper mills and most of the economy depends on them - most of the Russian magazines are printed there. They don't have enough of their own forest, they buy from us. I remember that they "revived" and our export duty on round timber raised, after that negotiations and "peace, bubble gum". True, this was before the WTO, now I really think that the border can be closed under the WTO
      1. HollyGremlin
        HollyGremlin 28 February 2014 14: 04
        +3
        Eh, you are not a spoiled person, good. Meant, I think that there is not for the eggs, but for other things.
        1. igordok
          igordok 28 February 2014 15: 43
          +3
          Quote: HollyGremlin
          Eh, you are not a spoiled person, good. Meant, I think that there is not for the eggs, but for other things.

          Now it’s clear why they have defense ministers - women.

          Defense Ministers of Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands and Germany
    2. Tersky
      Tersky 28 February 2014 15: 46
      +3
      Quote: VADEL

      Sorry. And how do we hold Finland for the "eggs"

      Our country accounts for more than 70% of imports of wood raw materials for Finnish companies
      According to the Finnish Forest Research Institute Metla, in the first four months of this year, timber imports to Finland amounted to more than 3,7 million cubic meters, which is 31% higher than the same period last year. Of the total imports of wood raw materials, about 1,5 million cubic meters are accounted for by birch balances, more than 1,1 million cubic meters - by wood chips. The share of spruce balances in these deliveries amounted to only 0,4 million cubic meters, and pine balances - 0,2 million.
      According to Metla, about 71% of imported wood was imported to Finland from Russia. Another 13% of imports of wood raw materials falls to Estonia and Latvia.
      Fully read here Now imagine what will happen to the Finnish manufacturer of carpentry and furniture if Russia introduces a supply quota.
      1. VAF
        VAF 28 February 2014 16: 10
        +2
        Quote: Tersky
        Now imagine what will happen to the Finnish manufacturer of carpentry and furniture if Russia introduces a supply quota.


        Vitya. Hello! If that happens. then ..we will be in such ..ope. what a scary thing to think!
        Or have you forgotten that we are already "members": wassat of their WTO circle ... or rather we are a "circle" of their MEMBER crying
        1. Tersky
          Tersky 28 February 2014 21: 13
          +1
          Quote: vaf
          If that happens. then ..we will be in such ..ope. what is scary to think

          Serge, hi ! We are already in it, laughing ! Here, of course, both you and VADEL are right, to our common regret. crying For the WTO and do not want to remember ...
      2. VADEL
        VADEL 28 February 2014 16: 28
        +1
        And now imagine that being on a tour in Finland in 1990, their "egg cell" guide announces with pride in his voice that Russians (like stupid ones) are selling them round timber, and then it is in the form of "Euro-lining" and well-planed boards are bought back, only dozens of times more expensive.
        And you think that the situation has changed dramatically. Dig into the numbers - how many wood products are returned to Russia. hi
        1. Tersky
          Tersky 28 February 2014 21: 17
          +3
          Quote: VADEL
          Dig into the numbers - how many wood products are returned to Russia.

          Here you are right, it’s time to already learn how to process the forest by ourselves, to manufacture products at the level of Finnish manufacturers, and not to drive raw materials for cardon.
    3. grandfather
      grandfather 28 February 2014 15: 56
      +1
      Quote: VADEL
      Quote: Ari100krat
      the truth at the expense of the forest Russia Finland holds eggs
      Sorry. And how do we hold Finland for the "eggs"


      rather from the north stream, stuck a pipe))))
    4. Fin
      Fin 28 February 2014 15: 58
      +1
      Quote: VADEL
      Sorry. And how do we hold Finland for the "eggs"

      Are you sure this is a woman? laughing
      1. VADEL
        VADEL 28 February 2014 16: 34
        0
        With difficulty and only glasses laughing
  5. polkovnik manuch
    polkovnik manuch 28 February 2014 13: 54
    0
    What is good, what is bad - here you need to think hard. As the saying goes: "Measure seven times, cut once." In short, observe priorities and keep markets with prices.
  6. Kostyar
    Kostyar 28 February 2014 14: 08
    -1
    China is looking at our wealth and drooling, and at this time we are supplying it with resources ...?!
    And one and a half billion, much closer to America ...
  7. demon184
    demon184 28 February 2014 14: 16
    0
    It is necessary to ban the sale of raw materials, let them sell gasoline, motor oils, pvc, etc., instead of oil, furniture, paper, etc., instead of wood.
  8. platitsyn70
    platitsyn70 28 February 2014 14: 21
    +3
    the Chinese must be put on the pipe, and for us it will be both economically and politically beneficial.
  9. Aleksey_K
    Aleksey_K 28 February 2014 14: 26
    +1
    Quote: demon184
    It is necessary to ban the sale of raw materials, let them sell gasoline, motor oils, pvc, etc., instead of oil, furniture, paper, etc., instead of wood.

    Nobody will buy our processed products. We must first learn the culture of this production, and not make hack work.
    But gas to South Korea through pipelines through China and S. Korea is very good. After some time, Korea, reorienting its economy to gas, will become dependent and compliant to us, and China, and S. Korea.
    1. demel2
      demel2 28 February 2014 17: 37
      0
      Quote: Алексей_К
      Nobody will buy our processed products. We must first learn the culture of this production, and not make a hack

      In order for the product quality to be consistent, it is necessary to build new refineries, that is, invest money in your country, and not squeeze the last juice from the refineries built by the still not beloved scoops. IMHO
  10. Coward
    Coward 28 February 2014 15: 24
    0
    At the same time, the Russian side began to "troll" China on the subject of pipeline supplies to South Korea - through the territory of the PRC. Recall that pipeline supply projects to the Republic of Korea (the LNG country is already buying from us) have been discussed repeatedly: options for an undersea gas pipeline (it turns out expensive), and pipes through the DPRK (very risky) were considered. And now the third option is being discussed again - through the territory of the PRC.
    No one will tell you, and where does South Korea have a land border with China?
    1. Free Island
      Free Island 28 February 2014 17: 58
      0
      approximately somewhere in Australia .. and another small piece of the border passes on the moon :)))
  11. SVD
    SVD 28 February 2014 16: 32
    0
    And what does "troll" mean? We do our best. We need to develop trade with our neighbors, but with China we only have a business partnership ...
  12. Free Island
    Free Island 28 February 2014 17: 57
    0
    I, as a Sakhalin citizen, really want to give someone in the eye%)))) by the way, to liquefy gas in Vladik when there is a SG plant on Sakhalin ... it's not clear :)))) only the very north of the island is gasified on Sakhalin , gas prices more than in the US, but feed Japan, China and other shit