The coming to power of the Batkivshchyna party is just another act of the Ukrainian turmoil. If Yulia Tymoshenko succeeds in curbing the energy of a radical protest for a while, it will inevitably burst out in the near future. Even if the current Ukrainian elite itself tries to become a conductor of the "National Socialist Revolution."
The formation of a new Ukrainian government has been postponed until Thursday. But it is already clear that the leader of the radical nationalist party “Svoboda” Oleg Tyagnibok will not enter it. It is likely that his party will not be represented at all in the government.
There are two reasons for this decision. On the one hand, the freedom fighters themselves do not want to become “political suicides” (as the most likely candidate for prime minister Yatsenyuk already called future members of the government), and on the other hand, the victorious Ukrainian opposition members themselves ask their Maidan colleagues to remain in the shadows to facilitate the recognition of Moscow’s new government . After all, it will be practically impossible for Russia to deal with a government in which frank Russophobes are represented. But all these tricks are not so important - the Ukrainian turmoil has its own laws, according to which it will be developed.
Under the conditions of the actually started election race, all the detachments and smoking of the victorious Ukrainian opposition must decide on their tactics. Now formally, the power is in the hands of the Batkivshchyna party - its representative Turchinov became the speaker, he was appointed by the Rada and. about. President, Arseniy Yatsenyuk will soon lead the government, and Yulia Tymoshenko is the favorite of the May presidential election.
The former ruling Party of Regions has already been half defeated and will now choose between the nomination of a new figure and a bet on the third place Sergey Tigipko who won the last presidential election. In any case, there is no chance of defeating a PR candidate - now she needs to reform from the bureaucratic party into a real political force, reflecting the interests of the population of the south-east of Ukraine. If she manages to do this, and ideological and strong-willed people like Oleg Tsarev come to the leadership, then at the next turn of the Ukrainian crisis she will again be able to fight for power. If not, then in the near future the PR will simply disappear from the political scene.
Vitali Klitschko, the leader of UDAR and one of the three formal leaders of the Maidan, also announced his participation in the elections. If Klitschko’s statement is not a tactical move and he will not be removed from the elections in the future, this means that the Maidan will not nominate a single candidate, but will begin to be measured by force, and then the nomination of Oleg Tyagnibok is also likely. In this case, Tymoshenko will have the best chances of winning, because then she will be able to present herself as a defender of the interests of the south-east of Ukraine and the Russian population.
But regardless of how the pre-election campaign will go, 25 May will not be a day of calming Ukraine, but just another stage in the struggle for power. Now the main unknown to the current Ukrainian situation is how relations between the parliamentary opposition that came to power and the radical nationalists, the real strength of Maidan, of which the Right Sector is the most visible part, will develop. So far, former oppositionists are going to strangle them in their arms - to give them some places in power, in law enforcement agencies, in a word, to enter non-system into the system. But the chances of this are not very high, because the “Right Sector” is not naive football fans or children of barricades. The organization is based on the asset of Stepan Bandera’s Trizub 90’s, which was founded at the beginning of 43, headed by XNUMX-year-old Dmitry Yarosh.
They are ideological Bandera, heirs of the UPA, national socialists, and their goal is not just to overthrow Yanukovych, but also to sweep the entire current Ukrainian political elite. They have already said that they don’t like it, that politicians from the Rada are trying to use the fruits of the “Ukrainian revolution” and leave the country as it is. Yarosh is not only a supporter of the overthrow of the power of oligarchs, but also an opponent of Ukraine’s entry into both the Customs Union and the European Union. “Trident” denies accusations of Russophobia, even tries to win sympathy in Russia (among nationalist anti-imperials who believe that “the empire oppresses the Russian people”) with their statements about Russia-Ukraine and the common liberal enemy, but openly demands de-Russification of Ukraine and declares “the satanic imperial Moscow” as the main enemy.
“Trident” is almost 20 years old, and before the beginning of Maidan, this paramilitary-semi-intellectual union hardly numbered more than 500 – 1000 people. A year ago, Dmitry Yarosh created the Right Sector to unite numerous disparate Ukrainian nationalist organizations, including the UNA-UNSO, various skinheads and associations of football fans. After the start of the Maidan, the Right Sector became the main force organizing resistance and clashes with the Berkut, and ultimately played a decisive role in the victory of the Maidan. For three months, from a semi-underground organization, the PS has become a force on which the future of Ukraine largely depends. Opposition leaders are curled up in front of him, and in response they hear: “We didn’t change the power in order to put exactly the same thieves on our neck”. Under conditions of paralysis of the power structures, the militants of the Right Sector become the volatile detachments of the revolution - for the present they are not trying to establish power in the southeast, but they are threatening the Crimea with an "armored train of friendship."
Now the "Right Sector" will swell from the influx of supporters and money. If Yarosh is able to maintain order in his structure, then against the background of a deepening economic and political crisis in a matter of months, the PS can grow into an organization that can try to take all the power into its own hands, passing from February to October at an accelerated pace. What can stop the "Right Sector"?
At the first stage, the elite will try to attract the PS to the management, to tame the leaders and to become an organization. At the same time, they do not want to give high posts in the government (the information about the probability of appointing Yarosh to the power vice-premier was an obvious fiction-provocation), because it would be impossible to explain to both Russia and even Europe the presence of radical revolutionaries in power. Yes, and Tymoshenko and Klitschko themselves are afraid of the revolutionary masses, because where is the guarantee that after gaining control over the Ministry of Internal Affairs or the Security Service, the Bandera will not arrest corrupt politicians, even if they are elected three times by deputies or even by presidents. On the other hand, without the support of the Maidan and the recognition of the new government, the radicals do not have the opportunity to retain power, let alone hold elections.
The leader of the "Right Sector" Dmitry Yarosh
For his part, now Yarosh is quite logical not to enter the office using a win-win argument: let's take a key post, otherwise I won't go. Let "Batkivshchyna" with a BLOW in three months before the elections will lose the trust of voters who will begin to radicalize. And then in the month of May the candidate supported by the PS - the most logical now seems to be the Yagrosh, if, of course, Yarosh himself decides to be nominated - gains a tangible percentage of votes, and the Right Sector also gets experience in the political struggle (by the way in the current Ukrainian conditions, the border between them will be quite conditional). Before the elections, it is important for the PS to only infiltrate their supporters into the power structures, the Interior Ministry and the Security Service of Ukraine, even in the most senior positions.
After Tymoshenko’s victory in the elections, the PS has several behavioral scenarios. A few more months to increase their influence and popularity, move aside "Freedom" and go to the elections to the Rada as a "force that will change everything" (to lose them and, not accepting defeat, to arrange a coup), or immediately prepare for power seize power. Anything can be the reason for it: the non-recognition of the election results (especially since they will probably take place in two rounds, a duel between Tymoshenko and the Duma is quite possible), spontaneous protests of state employees who are not paid, accusations of power in connivance to southeast separatism. Yarosh collects a new Maidan, from which no one will defend President Tymoshenko, and dictates his will to the Rada.
Understanding the reality of such a scenario certainly has at least some of the current "leaders of Ukraine." To prevent it from the Ukrainian political elite, there are two ways. The first way is to rally the “whole world” against the radicals - not now, when thanks to them they came to power, but after the elections. True, even then it will be very difficult for them to crush the Right Sector (especially if by that time he manages to arm several thousand of his supporters), and if by this time the Interior Ministry and the Security Service of Ukraine are completely demoralized and decomposed, then it is impossible. But at least the elite can try to do this by rallying for this around Tymoshenko. Will the similar instinct of self-preservation of the Ukrainian elite, will show soon. And the speed with which Ukrainian society will be radicalized, because it is likely that when the elite finally decide to unite, it will be already very late: the majority of the population will look forward to the total lustration of the Rada and the oligarchs.
The second way is to share power with the National Socialists and try to intercept their agenda. But Tymoshenko’s total Ukrainization cannot be implemented — then she will lose both the sympathy of the southeast and the possibility of at least some conversation with Russia. This means that the agenda will have to be intercepted in a social theme - demonstrative resignations and trials of officials (especially Yanukovychs alone) will not get away with this. It will be necessary to show people justice, that is, to really step on the interests of the oligarchs, not just taking money from them (Zbigniew Brzezinski already, by the way, offers 10 to the main Ukrainian oligarchs to throw in a billion, and give his son Yanukovych 10 - that’s what 20 needs) , and having really liquidated their influence on political life and government of the country.
But the problem is that it will not be possible to confine ourselves to just one or two oligarchs close to Yanukovych. The amount of dirt on the same Tymoshenko is such that she will have to press all the oligarchs to show the Maidan that she has changed and now “for the people”. Not to mention whether Tymoshenko herself (rather yes) is capable of this, it’s hard to imagine what additional shocks this can lead Ukraine to. Frightened oligarchs will start not only playing separatism, but really ruining the country.
But even after crushing them and completing part of the program of the Right Sector, what would Tymoshenko ultimately get? Temporary gratitude of the people - and then the same crisis, and the radicalization of the population, and the growing popularity of Yarosh, which will reveal the insufficiency and deceit of reforms. And again a coup, flight, court ...
The situation in Ukraine now has several options for its development - just as it was in the period between February and October 1917 of the year in Russia, when several forks were completed during eight months. Although Ukraine is not a full-fledged subject — much depends on the position and strategy of Russia — yet it is precisely on the behavior and choice of its people, and so on. it depends on the elite whether it will emerge from the acute stage of the disease that has just recovered (albeit weakened), or will cease to exist after feverish throwings.