Yanukovych now does not scold only lazy. For incomprehensible visible delay of the reaction when the situation is heating up. For indecision, even stronger - cowardice. For vibrations and throwing. Then he does not give the final order, or the return of strange orders - to attack, to stop, to stop again, to stand, not to respond to blows - when it seemed that just about the rioters could be squeezed and the victory was so close. From the side of maydanuty and many patriots, especially Ukrainian analysts, it seems that Yanukovych has long been hunted down, inadequate and trivially played. That all this tactics testifies to the lack of strategy and political will of the Ukrainian authorities.
But Russia has a strategy and political will, it is with it that the war is fought on the streets of Kiev, the Bandera Maidan is aimed at it. Yanukovych is not alone, he stands on the side of Russia and coordinates all actions with it. The main battle takes place behind the scenes, between diplomats and special services. Maidan is only the surface of this process. By the hands of the militants, the West strives to bend Russia under itself, to impose its own conditions on it both in Ukraine and in many other issues. Moscow, with the hands of Yanukovych, is trying to restrain the onslaught and prevent a breakdown in the beginning integration of the eastern regions of Ukraine with Russia. West is in a hurry. The Russian leadership and official Kiev, headed by Yanukovych, will begin to act actively on the streets only when they realize that all other means and opportunities have been exhausted. Hence the apparent passivity and uncertainty. From here and panic moods of the majority of observers, supporters of Russia.
Therefore, let's understand what are the real facts.
It was the Ukrainian government that came out against the United States and warned the public.
Paradoxically, the fact that the United States gave a dash of civil war and the disintegration of Ukraine was argued not by the opposition or by patriotic experts, or even by the communists (in fact, the impersonal impersonalists behind the scenes). This was openly announced by the Ukrainian government - the deputy head of the parliamentary faction of the ruling party, Oleg Tsaryov, from the rostrum of the Verkhovna Rada on November 20, November 2013. Then it seemed almost unbelievable. This was said before euromaidan - on its eve. But who understands, he saw this not as a private initiative of a separate deputy, but an agreed official statement of power to society in a formal setting, as Tsaryov was not expelled from the faction or even pulled down.
This is an unprecedented fact, which is not even discussed on the merits. For the first time, quite suddenly, the ruling party of Ukraine is not fawning on the world hegemon after years of groveling and humiliation. This is unexpected for the orange scenarios and symbolic - it means that the government chose not the role of the victim. After some time, other responsible newsmakers from the ruling Party of Regions spoke about the preparation of the Yugoslav variant and collapse in Ukraine, by definition not expressing their personal position, but being the translator of the messages of power.
So, long before these events, the Ukrainian authorities not only blissfully soared in the clouds and “sawed”, but soberly realized what exactly was at stake and what the West was provoking the Ukrainian socio-political process. And she informed the society about it ... Moreover, she voiced the facts of public exposure of US plans and their activities under the TechCamp program by an official of the regionalists in parliament.
All this in aggregate testifies that it is the Ukrainian government that has decided to oppose and fight the world hegemon openly. The first time like this. He who has ears, let him hear.
Burdens of Yanukovych
Considering the circumstances of Yanukovych’s coming to power and the fact that Barack Obama himself was the first to congratulate him on his victory in the elections, instead of yelling about dishonest elections (which Yulia Tymoshenko hoped for at that time for two weeks), it’s clear that It was the Americans who brought Yanukovych to power. And not just led, but in fact the whole power pack was formed and imposed on Yanukovych by them, their agents of influence. It is not excluded that the program of continuing the Orange policy of separating Ukraine from Russia and, in its course, inflating “Freedom” as a parliamentary party, full control of the fifth column of all Ukrainian media — all this Yanukovych received from the States as a burden and obligation (and did not for the love of radical Ukrainian nationalism).
The fact of personnel domination in the team of Yanukovich’s “agents of influence” is also indicated by this secrecy and swiftness with the breakdown of European integration and the unfolded sabotage and playing up to the Maidan from the government officials and structures themselves. The very fact of a stop-crane with the EU for them was like a bolt from the blue. Now Yanukovych hastily and rigidly cleans his apparatus from them - and this is additional evidence that he definitely crossed the Rubicon in relations with the United States.
The second circumstance. In the events taking place, it is obvious that a well-structured and developed terrorist underground is operating in Ukraine. His individual leaders have cover. Was it by chance that a certain Danilyuk, coordinated with the American embassy seizing Ukrainian ministries, turned out to be - suddenly! - a British passport and he was able to easily escape to London? It is clear that the Ukrainian militants and their leaders are the real agent-sabotage network of the Anglo-Saxon intelligence services, dressed in Ukrainian nationalism and cultivated long before Yanukovych. And she was also banned from touching.
But it’s clear from the events that the authorities take into account the fact that they are already armed, moreover, they are connected with influence agents in the Ukrainian state structures themselves (the regional Kolesnichenko recently directly accused the SBU of instigating the militants and did not do it on their own) the beginning of the rebellion. It is clear that the network of analysts on the terrorist underground militants was merged on behalf of the officer organization, but the level of the document shows that these are operational developments of the special services. And here it is the Ukrainian government that sends signals to society, with which it is now fighting and trying to prevent. Because Ukrainian protests immediately had a sharp difference from 2004 year. When the West became convinced that Yanukovych rebelled and dared to “go beyond the flags”, disrupting the Euro-Association, and he did it abruptly, unexpectedly, in fact, in three days.
The West and the Ukrainian Banderlog together screamed: how can that be? Otherwise it was impossible. Any information leaks from Yanukovych’s entourage to the embassies would have buried at the root of the possibility of this demarche of him before the West and a turn to Moscow. The West would have managed to organize media and other pressure. Now the West actually operates with a false start, “from the wheels,” as V.Putin noted. From surprise, he was forced to use the still raw script, preparing for the presidential election 2015 of the year. In this haste, there are not only positive moments for us, there is a great danger in it.
The fact is that the West does not fully compensate for its structures, which are measured to prepare for the events in a year, with a special frostbittenness of the current mobilization of fighters on alert. He is in a hurry, and therefore he shamelessly presses. And this factor was certainly taken into account by the authorities, when it hid the scenario of reversal to the East to the last - even from its own, for fear of leakage.
Has Yanukovych capitulated?
Not. Paradoxically, for all the more than one hundred days of crisis, daily assessments and forecasts that Yanukovych was already on a political break - Yanukovych did not give up, and moreover, the vertical of governance of the country was preserved. The ruling Party of Regions and its parliamentary faction have been preserved. Nowhere do we see a transition to the side of the militants, and even more of the civil euromaidan representatives of the executive branch and especially of the power structures. Even in the Western regions, where the current regional councils and administrations, and the general background of public opinion, were projected, all this time there has been no transfer to the side of the militants, neither the police, nor the SBU, nor the army, nor the diplomats and ministers. This is a key point of difference, in particular, from 2004 Orange. Although we see evidence of how much pressure is being put on civil servants. Yes, there are separate defectors and rats from the ship. But these are units that fluttered under a powerful psychological blow, when NATO snipers disguised as "Berkut men" began to act in the capital and when terror was unleashed against their families and loved ones.
In reality, Ukraine is already living in the regime of sanctions, embargo and economic blockade. The same Tsarev voiced that for several months the West has blocked all financial transactions of the regional oligarchs and simply industrial enterprises in the South-East of the country. This is one of the reasons for the extremely rapid easing of the hryvnia. The introduction of new bans on the entry of some officials in the United States will change little in this sense. The arrest of the accounts will even play into the hands of Russia, forcing the eastern oligarchs to keep their funds in Russian banks. Even early elections will not capitulate for Yanukovych.
So what does the West want from the Ukrainian government?
About the idea of puppeteers
The real super goal of the West is not just the resignation of Yanukovych and the restart-re-election of the Ukrainian authorities. All requirements publicly voiced by the West are small and bluff. The real task is to thwart the beginning of the restoration of real industrial cooperation between Russia and Ukraine. It is because of this, Yanukovych and received Maidan. Thanks to this cooperation, the cumulative effect of which many times exceeds the Russian 15 loan of billions of dollars, Ukraine receives financial circulation and economic growth independent from the West, which destroys all plans of the West to separate Ukraine from Russia. Because of this, and such haste under pressure on the Ukrainian power elites.
It is clear that the West is putting pressure on Yanukovych to make a mistake and trivially failed. It is clear that Yanukovych provoke a picture of his "chemical attack" on the example of Syria. In this case, Yanukovych is provoked not only by the use of force against the militants, but by the use of firearms. weapons. This can be seen from stuffing in the media that the Ministry of Internal Affairs issued military weapons with cartridges, that the snipers of the government shoot down peaceful protesters and so on. All this turns out to be a lie - but it shows that puppeteers need just such an answer from the authorities. Moreover, such a sharp response from the authorities is expected by the patriotic public, seeing the victims and the atrocities of the street element. Why this is necessary - is understandable.
An excuse is needed, a picture for a legal armed uprising, as an answer for the authorities "drowning their own peaceful people in blood" and turning the opposition to the West for intervention under the guise of peacekeeping contingents to "protect the population from the tyrant." As an option, kindle a full-fledged civil war closely behind Russia and export chaos to Russian border regions.
It is necessary to take into account the fact that Ukraine is a part (albeit a very significant one) of the large geopolitical clash between the USA and Russia, more broadly - the West and the East, and Washington’s offensive goes on all fronts: the “dollar vacuum cleaner” is turned on, bringing out financial flows from the BRICS countries to the western speculative papers; attack the currencies of India, Brazil, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Russia; continue to pressure Syria, threatening to disrupt Geneva-2 and military aggression; They are trying to thwart the creation of the Eurasian Union in 2015 and create a negative image of the Olympics in Sochi.
The situation in Ukraine should be perceived only as part of this unified process, a global confrontation between the non-West and the West, in which Russia plays a key role. In this sense, Yanukovych is not a pawn, but Moscow’s ally on the Ukrainian front. He can not do gag. Only from this angle, it becomes clear that Yanukovych really does strategically.
Super task of Yanukovych
First of all, official Kiev was well aware that there was no doubt about the color revolution (and that it was she who started it), one of the most important factors is the picture. Not losing a picture is half the victory. That is why it was so necessary to clearly and truthfully show the heroic passive defense of the "Berkut" and the soldiers of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The sufferings and injuries of people are not in vain, psychologically this was of paramount importance. The West was not given a single proven chance to blame Yanukovych - really, with the facts on hand - in the hostilities against "the Ukrainian people." Moreover, he actually won the information war regarding the display of the true face of "peaceful protest" - the whole world was bypassed by cadres of peacefully protesting with chains that set the soldiers on fire with Molotov cocktails.
As even Ukrainian analysts wrote, those who are more literate and more decent, Yanukovych and his Russian assistants found a recipe for neutralizing Sharpe’s technology, and it was the ineffectiveness of the government’s “Sharp decomposition” that led to the “hot phase” of protest. And now the current escalation with already open murders on the streets of Kiev, seizures of weapons depots, at a new level, but pursues the same goal - to “punch” Yanukovych to the most severe armed response that western customers need “nose-dry”. But this is still not a super task. The real most important task of Yanukovich, based on the strategy of Russia, is to preserve the most important vector of industrial cooperation with Russia. For this, he is trying to gain time, and to prevent the country from slipping into civil slaughter. At any price. For this, he gave a bite off his finger so as not to devour his hand. For this, he made unprecedented political concessions.
Yanukovych understands (and probably has secret information) that not all militants are in Kiev, many militants are dispersed in the regions. Some of their arsenals showed a video of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The authorities saw that the militants of the terrorist underground were waiting for the main order, and all their real forces were not shown. That they will hide behind as a human shield by peaceful citizens and they cannot be quickly and accurately neutralized even by a decisive special operation - there will certainly be mass innocent victims. Yanukovych does not hesitate and does not hesitate. He is the most pulling with external activity, while Russia is fighting with the West behind the scenes. But since the question of creeping towards Yugoslavia is really real, the Ukrainian Front for Popular Self-Defense of the Ukrainian Land was created.
From the foregoing, it is clear that Yanukovych actually finally crossed the Rubicon and burned all the bridges with the West for himself. This is especially evident from the yesterday’s nightly statement by the American ambassador Payette, who organized Biden’s telephone conversation with Yanukovych after the massacre at the Verkhovna Rada, burning the PR office and pushing the bandits to Maidan by Berkut. The details of the negotiations are not known, except for the fact of Biden’s ultimatum to withdraw troops from Kiev. The American ambassador said that the United States was solely responsible for the escalation of violence on the Ukrainian president - hence, Yanukovych sent them to be banal, and it is possible that in a particularly convincing international form.
It underlines this consideration and the fact that at night Yanukovych ignored all calls to him by European leaders. He was unavailable to them. Even Merkel was offended by such disrespectful disregard. They are not used to this. But he talked in detail at night with Putin, which Peskov stated. Eloquent and revealing.
Or another fact is the pity of the US State Department that the Ukrainian security forces stopped responding to their calls: “US State Department officials haven’t been able to reach Ukrainian law enforcement officers for several days,” a senior US official said. “In the past, we could phone the security authorities structures, see them quickly enough, "she said."
In the context of the plums in the media from the Ukrainian special services of direct facts of the leadership of the American Embassy militants of the Right Sector and their coordination and management of the seizure of Ukrainian ministries, and - when the Americans did not rationalize - the publication of negotiations of high-ranking officials Nuland-Payette. The conclusion is more than obvious: they don’t give up power!
And what about Russia?
The Russian position on Ukraine is also criticized from all political flank: for throwing money and inaction and the absence of Ukrainian politics. But is it fair?
On the one hand, the position of Russia is declared by both Lavrov and the president - Russia does not interfere in the internal Ukrainian events, respecting the sovereignty of Ukraine. Russia is interested in the integrity of Ukraine and the peaceful resolution of the political crisis. But Russia can help and mediate if it is asked for help. Those. Russia's position defiantly removed. The West, in turn, wants to provoke Russia's public intervention, to fix it. This was evident even at the Russia-EU summit, where officials of the European Commission argued that they were discussing Ukrainian issues, while Putin pointedly emphasized that the Ukrainian issue was not on the agenda.
So what happens? Externally, Russia does not interfere, but the Russian Foreign Ministry and special services are leading a real battle for Ukraine. If we look at the official tape of statements by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, we will see that the situation in Ukraine and the intervention of Western countries in it is commented on daily, sometimes Ukraine is mentioned twice a day. This is an unprecedented for the Russian diplomacy public defense of Ukraine. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation actually acts as the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs now. But it is, of course, only the tip of the iceberg of the behind-the-scenes efforts of Russian diplomacy to neutralize Western pressure on Ukraine, which I cautiously mentioned in a conversation with Payett Nuland.
It can not like the West and its agents in the power of Ukraine. It got to the point that the compradors of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry were ordered to pull up Russian diplomacy, which resulted in a shameful, clumsy attempt to read out a Russian diplomat. On the other hand, the Ukrainian authorities in the person of Deputy Tsarev on the Russian TV channel, that Ukraine needs diplomatic protection from the West in order to neutralize its direct leadership of the militants. In this case, the official Kiev will be able to easily deal with them as with a common element. Actually, Russia is trying to do so, providing diplomatic cover. Tsarev also said that direct western invasion of Ukraine is excluded, because Russia closed the airspace over Ukraine - a direct condition for intervention.
In response, the West is trying to discredit Russia, accusing it of interfering in Ukraine’s affairs, in order to remove blocking the possibility of intervention as soon as possible while Russia is occupied by the Olympics. Western diplomacy and intelligence of their countries primitively burned and flashed all the contacts. As a result, the Ukrainian and Russian special services must have accumulated kilotons of direct talks, evidence, and material evidence. Taking the desired for the reality, they rashly believed Yanukovich, "knocked duck", taking at face value demonstrated by their "indecisiveness" of the Ukrainian authorities.
So, all this time, there are no public negotiations between Russia and the United States, and for their successful result, Yanukovych shamelessly pulled, gaining time. After all, everyone understands that speaking of compromise and negotiations, Yanukovych understands that he cannot be reached with the pseudo-leaders of the Maidan with the trinity, or with the militants and their leaders - in principle. All of them are only performers of orders of Western puppeteers. Only the United States itself can order the militants to stop the violence, go home, leave the captured arsenals of weapons and institutions. Only they can change their order "face" to "fu."
And precisely in convincing the United States to stop the aggression is the key role of Russia. Not allowing the aggression, Russia will not take from her the Ukraine and thus continue with its integration, the beginning of which is incorporated agreements 17 of December. This is what the undercover cutting and bargaining are about, barely reflected on the surface by the daily notes of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
How can you reconstruct the position of Russia?
I think it is as follows: Russia will not surrender Ukraine under any circumstances. The question is how far Russia will get bogged down in the defense of Ukraine. After all, it should be understood that, according to international norms, this is a sovereign state and Russia should avoid direct intervention. How would anyone not want the opposite.
Putin is a master of asymmetric response. And now he holds a pause for the States to open up and burn them to the full and lay out all the trump cards. At the same time, he is probably different, and, perhaps, not only through diplomatic means, he explains to the West that he should not go on the rampage. For the situation, while the great attention and strength of Russia is occupied by the Olympics in Sochi, this is more than enough. But in the coming days, Moscow will certainly launch an offensive initiative to resolve the Ukrainian crisis.
For example, together with Merkel's offer to create a tripartite commission Brussels-Kiev-Moscow agreement on all critical issues both in the Ukraine, as well as between Russia and the West. Thus, in one motion I Russian continental Germany will withdraw from the Washington game and hurl all of its geopolitical situation and multi-million dollar spending on euromaidan-2013 / 2014.
Here we must take into account that the West is not monolithic. The rift takes place across Europe - into Euro-Atlantic and continental. The center of this split is in Germany, whose behavior is therefore controversial, because in the leadership the struggle is constantly going on between pro-Washington forces and anti-Washington forces. The joint position of Putin and Merkel in Ukraine, expressed after a telephone conversation at night with 19 on February 20, is an important signal that continental Europe is winning, ready to cooperate with Russia. And this automatically means leaving the US protectorate. However, it is possible that Russia and the United States at the last moment will find a compromise without the special role of Germany. In this case, the Ukrainian protest will die out, deprived of external support and leadership, and it will be dealt with as criminals in a political resolution of the crisis.
But another, much more dangerous scenario is also very likely. That Americans will not succeed in replaying or convincing the militants to stop, and they will go to incite civil war. The team of Yanukovych will start pouring, the rats will run not in units, but in dozens. In this case, Russia, I have no doubt, will violate all tacit agreements with the West and openly stand up for Ukraine, against the rebels. Under the Russian cover, a swiftly rapid combat stripping of the country will begin. There will be blood, for it will be like North Ossetia or Vietnam. But the terrorist underground will be swept mercilessly. The prerequisites for this are visible in the initiation by the SBU of an antiterrorist operation across the country and the introduction of elements of an emergency. Russia will certainly convene the UN Security Council and present evidence of the guilt of the West.
The price of the issue is people's lives, the desire to avoid thousands of refugees, a humanitarian catastrophe and lies at the basis of the Russian-Ukrainian position. The West is given the opportunity to get out of the situation with the preservation of the face, while it is being given. Whether the West and the United States will personally take the hand extended from Russia - we will learn from the actions of the Ukrainian authorities on the events of the next hours and days in Ukraine. While the US threatens and bluffs with psychic attacks on the Ukrainian authorities, blood is shed. But if the United States goes to lawlessness - there will be more. But there will be an answer. Both States and Europe already seem to be becoming aware of this. Hurry up to giraffes.
What should we do?
We need to understand that Goebbels and the professional spread of defeatism and lies are also a form of pressure on the Ukrainian authorities and the position of Russia. After all, professionals are acting against us to demoralize the people and create psychosis and panic. It depends on us - to succumb to them or fight.
And to fight in the current conditions is to believe, to support the legitimate Ukrainian authorities, to support Yanukovich and his team. So support that our courage and determination be passed on to them, and they even did not flinch at the moment of weakness. They are not saints and not flawless - but now it is they who withstand unprecedented pressure and really challenged the West, having burnt all the bridges to retreat.
I will repeat - as Ukraine is working all the time in conjunction with Russia, they do not capitulate and don’t give up the country. The fight continues. Our land is the land of Christ, the source of Holy Russia, the source of Russia - the future hope of mankind. And it is precisely for this reason that all the world's besovstvo has now turned against it. But the Lord is not mocked. Satanists will be disgraced and destroyed. The most important question is what price it will be achieved, what will be the price of the ultimate Victory. It is directly dependent on our faith, understanding and citizenship that the bloody price be minimized, that people be saved.