Azerbaijan replenishes the powder keg
Azerbaijani leadership presents its army as the strongest in the region
According to preliminary data from the World Trade Analysis Center weapons (TSAMTO), last year Azerbaijan acquired weapons worth 1 billion 257 million and in terms of these purchases it took 15-th place in the world. TSAMTO also states that over the past four years, Baku has sent 3 billion 375 million to purchase military units. These figures more or less correspond to official figures, which are regularly published in the Caspian republic itself. Moreover, the demonstration of these indicators is always accompanied by militant rhetoric against Armenia. Baku not only uses every excuse to similarly once again “scare” Yerevan with the “imminent immediate release of Nagorno-Karabakh occupied by the Armenian side”, but also reinforces these intentions with active military maneuvers. In Armenia, in turn, "adequately respond to the aggressive preparations of Azerbaijan."
How realistic is the possibility of a new war in the Caucasus? What forces can the army of the Caspian state "fulfill the will of their people and liberate the occupied lands"? And what are the chances of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) and Armenia once to defend "the blood gained gains"?
BAKU AND YEREVAN COMPARE FORCES
The performance of President Ilham Aliyev at the celebrations on the occasion of the 95 anniversary of the creation of national armed forces, which was widely celebrated on June 26 throughout the country, and military parades took place in Baku and some large cities, is especially indicative in terms of verbal militancy. In this speech, all the previously voiced theses of Azerbaijani politics are accumulated, as it were, in different places.
First, Baku boasts an increasing military budget from year to year. According to official data, if in 2003, these allocations amounted to 163 million dollars, last year this figure was 3,6 billion dollars, and in 2013, it reached 3,7 billion dollars. “This in itself demonstrates that building an army is a priority issue, the largest budget costs are directed to the army, and this is natural. And in subsequent years, military spending will represent the main place in our common budget, ”said Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. At the same time, he is ironic about “Armenia in need, the entire budget of which is about 2 billion dollars.”
“The means used by us only for military needs are twice as high as all the expenses of Armenia! Azerbaijan is increasing every day, and Armenia is becoming weaker. Our economic power has grown on an incomparable scale. We are ahead of the enemy several times in any direction, and in some directions - more than ten times. And this difference will grow. Because we have a clear future, prospects, development path, ”noted Ilham Aliyev.
Although there is an increase in military spending, the tendency for their annual increase is not always observed. For example, in 2010, 4,413 billion was allocated to defense, and in “2011,” only “3,474 billion was allocated.
Secondly, the priority in spending these funds is an increase in military production and the purchase of the latest military equipment abroad. "And so it will be until the final settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict," the Azerbaijani leader said, accepting the parade of troops in Baku.
Aliyev is far from the first year to position his army as the strongest in the region. “Today it has great potential, which causes concern for Armenia,” he repeated at a government meeting. According to him, Azerbaijan takes into account that technology and knowledge begin to play a leading role in wars of the XNUMXst century. Therefore, in recent years, the state has acquired for the troops about a hundred combat and transport helicopters, dozens of combat aircraft, the latest air defense systems, armored vehicles, Tanks and artillery devices that are able to hit any enemy target.
But the Azerbaijani Supreme Commander "takes higher", noting that a well-equipped technically, with a high level of discipline, the Azerbaijani army is the strongest not only in the region, but stands out on a global scale, is the guarantor of the country's security.
The President noted that only a small part of the weapons possessed by the Azerbaijani army is demonstrated at the festive military march. According to reports from Baku, during the solemn movement of troops, samples of weapons of local and foreign production were shown. In particular, one could see Drones, armored vehicles, some air defense systems, including the S-300, the recently purchased Russian T-90S tanks. Flew and aviation - An upgraded version of the MiG-29, Su-25, Mi-17 helicopters. Some combat vehicles were demonstrated for the first time.
With the participation of more than 5, thousands of troops during the parade were shown around 300 units of the latest military equipment and weapons systems and over 100 aircraft and helicopters. In addition, there was a sea part - about 40 ships and boats went to the Caspian Sea.
Ilham Aliyev sets more than unambiguous tasks for the generals and personnel: “Azerbaijan lives in conditions of war. It is not yet completed, only the first stage is completed. And the Azerbaijani army must be ready at any time to liberate the occupied lands. " The Supreme Commander is convinced: “Today, the Azerbaijani army is able to fulfill any task assigned to it.”
Aliyev often communicates with the military, personally raising the morale of his troops. Relatively recently, military units began to conduct exercises in the conflict zone, and each time the intensity and number of servicemen participating in them increases, which contradicts the agreements reached with Armenia and the UN Charter.
UPDATED DEFENSE
Baku not only buys the latest models of weapons abroad, but also pays great attention to building up its own defense production. Judging by the official information, there are dozens of military factories in the country, which produce about 750 items of military products, including small arms, grenade launchers, mortars, aerial bombs, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles and armored vehicles.
“Strengthening the local industry, we have big plans,” President Aliyev said. - We already have a very strong military industry. Azerbaijani products are demonstrated at world exhibitions, and at the same time our export opportunities are increasing. ”
Ilham Aliyev visits enterprises and research institutes of the military-industrial complex, which, in a relatively short period of time since the creation of the Ministry of Defense Industry in 2005, have already mastered the production of modern and international standards military products.
Production sites of 31 were created on the basis of factories of the Soviet period. All of them have undergone radical modernization, they have completely replaced the machine park, equipment, production infrastructure. To this end, Germany, the USA, Switzerland, Austria, Italy, Ukraine, Turkey, China, Russia, Belarus and South Korea purchased 163 units of technological equipment, as well as more than 5 thousand tools.
The production of small series of small arms, melee weapons and artillery shells, engineering equipment, combat engineering and training ammunition, service engineering and reconnaissance equipment was mastered. The assembly of modern type armored personnel carriers, anti-tank mines, riflescopes, aviation training bombs and other weapons began.
Accelerated development of the defense industry is one of the most important priorities not only in the economic and investment programs of the government, but also in the concept of the country's national security. It is not only a focus on the early resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Baku solves a broader triune problem. With the assistance of the world's best companies, a modern material base of the national defense industry is being formed, which leads to a decrease in dependence on external partners and suppliers, which often dictate unacceptable financial and, sometimes, political conditions. New jobs are being created, which also has a positive impact on the pace and quality of growth in the national economy. Finally, the country's military export potential is being strengthened, which allows Azerbaijan to enter the world arms market as a supplier, and not just a buyer. And all this, the government believes, enables the country to play a more significant role in ensuring peace, stability and security in the Caucasus region.
In the 2010 year, Azerbaijan produced 413 military-grade products — instead of 43 species in the 2006 year. The number of production sites has increased. The Ministry of Defense Industry (MOP) began to fully provide the Armed Forces with ammunition. The number of orders for national production has also increased significantly.
The launch of ammunition for tanks and artillery shells, revolver mortars and projectiles, 2011 mm rocket launchers, 107 mm rocket, laser-guided missile anti-tank missiles, and laser-headed helicopters launched from 122. The construction of five facilities for the production of various types of gunpowder, trotyl and hexogen, and other explosives has begun. Produced 60 unmanned aircraft.
In 2012, MOP established the production of the modernized AK-74 submachine gun, and in general produces already up to 700 product names, including large-caliber ammunition, intended for helicopters and tanks. MOP continues to increase capacity.
Azerbaijan directs the largest budget expenditures to the army.
Ilham Aliyev chaired a cabinet meeting on the results of socio-economic development in the first quarter of 2013. It is noteworthy that the Minister of Defense Industry Yavar Jamalov made a large report there. He reported that in the near future several new production sites will be created. And he reported on the products already produced and handed over to customers.
In this line - PKM machine gun, 60-mm mortar, AK-74M machine gun, various types of combat and signal cartridges, hand grenades, anti-tank and anti-personnel mines, small arms, spare parts for armored vehicles and others. Plus, all the tests carried out by enterprises of the Ministry, 30 armored vehicles and five systems based on an Orbiter-2M unmanned aerial vehicle, which were handed over to the customer, have been successfully carried out. Currently, relevant work is underway to produce 60 armored vehicles and four systems based on the Aerostar unmanned aerial vehicle. Fully completed work on the 12-barrel 107-mm multiple rocket launcher, this weapon is recommended for mass production and adoption.
By the end of 2013, the launch of the series of sniper rifles, 23-mm and 30-mm ammunition of various types for anti-aircraft installations and automatic weapons, anti-personnel fragmentation mines, fire sets for 30-mm and 40 was to be completed in accordance with the NATO standards. -mm mortars, incendiary capsules of various types for small arms, prismatic binoculars for small arms, as well as installation on special-purpose vehicles for various types of weapons.
In the 2013 year, as in previous years, the government allocated funds for a number of important projects, the main of which is the construction of three plants for the production of gunpowder, TNT and RDX. Baku no longer wants to spend too much time on the purchase and importation of these substances into the country, as well as to solve problems related to their acquisition.
And there are also factories for the production of various types of fire sets for grenade launchers, various types of fuses for 23-mm, 30-mm and 40-mm ammunition, 30-mm A42 guns, plants for hot stamping and machining of shells of various caliber for artillery pieces tank guns, lines for the production of shells of fire sets of these shells.
Thus, for the period that has passed since the creation of the ministry, the total number of production sites should reach 47. All will be provided with modern equipment. The process of signing procurement contracts from companies and firms in developed countries around 300 machines, special instruments and tools has already been launched and will be completed as planned in a short time.
Caucasian defenders from the western side of the Caspian Sea were more often seen at major international arms exhibitions. If in 2009, the Azerbaijani defense industry presented 27 products at the IDEF at the Istanbul exhibition, in November of last year in Indonesia, 125 products of various products were demonstrated. And in May last year in Turkey at IDEF-2013 Azerbaijan showed already 130 samples of military products. First time in stories Republic in September 2014 in Baku is planned to hold an international exhibition of the defense industry ADEX-2014.
Against this background, Baku is developing military-technical cooperation (MTC) with Russia. Colonel-General Safar Abiyev, Minister of Defense of Azerbaijan, visited Moscow and spoke with his Russian counterpart Army General Sergey Shoigu. The guest was pleased with the meeting, saying that the military-technical cooperation between the two countries is going very well: “We receive T-90 tanks, heavy flame-throwing systems, and Msta self-propelled artillery. One of these days will begin the delivery of armored personnel carriers BTR-82. Another agreement has been signed and a number of agreements are being prepared. In addition, our military personnel is trained in Russian military schools. ”
According to unofficial information, it specifically referred to the supply of X-NUMX (three battalions) of T-94С tanks to Russia by Russia, about a hundred (three battalions) of infantry fighting vehicles BMP-90, 3 (by division) self-propelled artillery "Msta-S", " Vienna "and launchers of Smerch multiple rocket launchers. And also six (battery) heavy flame-throwing systems TOS-18A "Solntsepek". The total value of the delivered offensive weapons is estimated from 1 million to 700 billion dollars. Potentially all these weapons can be used to recapture the “native Azerbaijani lands occupied by Armenia”.
POLICY ON BACKGROUND
Against the background of all this forced militarization of the country and saber-rattling near the conflict zone, the policy of official Baku today looks based on the words of Ilham Aliyev, so: “Strong Azerbaijan can speak any language with weak Armenia. We just still give preference to the negotiating path in order to maintain stability in the region, since Azerbaijan is a stabilizing state in the region. Azerbaijan has very great prestige in the region. Without the consent of Azerbaijan, no initiative, no project can be implemented in the region. Therefore, to maintain stability and resolve the issue peacefully, we still give preference to political paths. We will try to resolve the conflict peacefully as soon as possible. Negotiations continue. But the military potential strengthens our position. ”
The head of the republic expresses confidence that historical and political factors, norms of international law and military economic power will say their word in fair resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict: “Azerbaijan will restore its territorial integrity in Nagorno-Karabakh and other occupied lands. In Khankendi (the so-called NKR capital Stepanakert. –O.E.), the Azerbaijani flag will fly to Shusha! ”.
Baku’s territorial claims are not limited to the NKR. He is convinced that the original Azerbaijani land is not only the occupied Nagorno-Karabakh and the regions around it, but the whole territory of present-day Armenia: “Our state and people will never give the possibility of creating a second Armenian state on their lands, especially during the military aggression ethnic Armenians were subjected to ethnic cleansing in Khojaly against the peaceful citizens of our republic ”.
Baku demonstratively pursues a policy of isolating Armenia from regional processes, which, along with the buildup of military power and economic potential of Azerbaijan, in the opinion of Ilham Aliyev, will soon solve the problem of occupying part of the country: "We will achieve what we want and restore historical justice."
DEMONSTRATION OF OPTIMISM
And what about in Yerevan? There, of course, they hear how the neighboring country "saber-rattling, militarizing." Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan (graduated from the Baku Higher All-Arms Command School in 1983) react harshly to the bellicose statements of their geopolitical neighbor.
After the June 26 military parade in Baku, Yerevan, June 28, held a festive airshow at the airfield of the Erebuni military airfield (in 7 km from the capital), timed to coincide with the National Day of Aviation, Air Defense and Electronic Warfare. For two hours, aerobatics performed in the air sports aircraft Yak-55, training L-29 and attack aircraft Su-25, as well as combat helicopters Mi-8 and Mi-24. Aviators drew the sky with colorful plumes of smoke that formed the Armenian red, blue and orange tricolor. Paratroopers performed jumps with flying flags of the countries participating in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). All this clearly symbolized the readiness of Armenia in case of which it was worthy of standing up for itself with the support of allies, the strongest of whom is Russia. The 102-I Russian military base with 3,5 thous. Military personnel in Gyumri, as well as the contingent of Russian Border Guards, which protects the 396-kilometer border of Armenia with Turkey and Iran, give particular confidence to this Yerevan. Colonel-General Seyran Ohanyan, who was present at the airshow, announced the development of military-technical cooperation with the Russian Federation: "We have entered an important stage by signing a new plan for the development of military-technical cooperation, which allows direct interaction between enterprises." As for the possibility of war, then, in his assessment, today such a probability is low, despite the fact that there is tension: “But we must be ready for war every day, and therefore we improve our capabilities every day.”
Armenia was attentive to the June reports of the Russian media about the forthcoming billionth delivery of offensive weapons to Baku. The local press was seething with emotions. Moscow has been accused of not having a logic-based foreign policy towards the South Caucasus countries. At the same time, official Yerevan refrained from emotional comments. Coincidentally, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev and CSTO Secretary General Nikolai Bordyuzha were seconded to the capital of Armenia one after another. The first suggested Serzh Sargsyan not to look for a political background in large deliveries of weapons to Baku, explaining them exclusively to the issue of commerce, in which any country, if desired, has the opportunity to legally purchase weapons from Russia. In support of its position, Moscow signed a bilateral agreement with Yerevan on the development of military-technical cooperation.
It is envisaged that Armenia and Russia supply each other with military products with the same characteristics and in the same configuration as for their own national armed forces, law enforcement agencies and special services. It is clear that the lion's share of supplies will be from Russia. This treaty gave some optimism to our partners, at least Security Council secretary Arthur Baghdasaryan stated that the Armenian Armed Forces have sufficient potential both in terms of the availability of weapons and in combat training to repel any enemy encroachment. At the same time, he noted that the army is replenished with the latest models of weapons and equipment, which by quality indicators are superior to Azerbaijan.
The CSTO Secretary General Nikolai Bordyuzha, who arrived in Yerevan after Patrushev, assured President Serzh Sargsyan and Armenian society that the current level of security in Armenia is so high that neither the leadership of the country nor the people have any doubts about it. The system of this security rests on “three unsinkable whales”: national efforts in terms of the state’s tireless care for the army (combat power and high morale of Armenian soldiers and officers are difficult to overestimate), Armenian-Russian partnership and cooperation within the framework of the “union of six”. Nikolai Bordyuzha stressed that modernization and rearmament of the air force and the air defense system of Armenia is on the agenda.
Against this background, some experts believe that the logic in arming Russia with two opponents, who are both strategic partners for it, is still visible. For example, an expert of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (RISS), Doctor of Military Sciences Vladimir Zakharov notes: “Arms shipments to Azerbaijan took place after the deployment of Iskander-M missile systems and Tornado-G multiple-launch rocket systems in Armenia. Thus, the billion-dollar commercial deal with Baku is aimed primarily at preserving parity of forces in the region, the balance of which has recently shifted towards Armenia. ”
PSYCHOLOGICAL PRESSURE BLITZKRIG
Meanwhile, the armament of Azerbaijan can not but alarm. Experts believe that at one point Baku may turn from militant rhetoric to business. Although at one time the Georgian-Russian five-day war somewhat cooled the ardor of politicians. But five years have passed since that time. It seems that Azerbaijan can solve its territorial problems only by blitzkrieg.
Sergey Markedonov, head of the department of inter-ethnic relations at the Institute of Political and Military Analysis, believes that such a scenario does not bode well for anyone who first begins to destroy the status quo: “The separation line (called the front line in Yerevan and Baku for simplicity) an attempt to change it will lead to a protracted positional war and the inevitable intervention of external forces, from which there will be no unilateral support for any of the participants in the armed confrontation. "
The expert explains that in this sense, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is very different from the Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-South Ossetian confrontation: “Two de facto states that supported Moscow fought with Georgia, despite the fact that the United States and the EU ignored the desire Abkhazia and South Ossetia to independence. For the West, it was a conflict between Russia and Georgia with all the complex stereotypes (young democracy versus imperial ambitions). And in Nagorno-Karabakh Azerbaijan fights not only against the separatists, but also opposes Armenia as a recognized state that has strong support in the West. Suffice it to say that the USA is financing the NKR social projects, and NATO is also pursuing its interests here. The Armenian theme is not ordinary at all in France, even at the presidential level. In turn, Baku also has lobbying resources in the West, especially in Great Britain, which, unlike the United States and France, is not seen in consistent Armenian-Armenianism.
The Russian factor in Azerbaijan also cannot fail to take into account, especially since both countries have access to the Caspian. Obviously, Moscow still has a lot of leverage to politically influence the situation in this confrontation in the Caucasus. The repeated meetings of the Russian presidents with the leaders of the two warring states are memorable.
So, the militant attacks of Baku, on the one hand, are an element of psychological warfare against a hostile state (which cannot but irritate Yerevan). On the other hand, it is rhetoric and for internal use. It strengthens the spirit of the nation and explains why it is necessary to direct huge budget funds not to social programs, but to strengthen the country's defense capability.
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