Military Review

Whom Obama got scared in Russia?

28
Whom Obama got scared in Russia?



The official delegations of 60 countries, including more than 40 heads of state, flew to the opening of the Sochi Olympics. This is more than the combined games in London (2012) and Vancouver (2010). However, Barack Obama ignored the international sports festival, and his excuses surprised everyone with their infantilism ... Naturally, political scientists had their own versions.

So, 44 th president of the United States explained his absence in Sochi by not wanting to distract fans from the competition. “It’s much more interesting for the audience to watch the struggles of our incredible athletes,” he said. The semi-official version of the “boycott”, which the Western media hint at in direct terms, is the White House’s disagreement with the amendments to the RF Law “On protecting children from information harmful to their health and development”.

But perhaps one of the main reasons for such a decision by Obama is the unwillingness to meet with the head of the People’s Republic of China? For the past six months, Obama has deliberately missed events involving Xi Jinping. Surrounded by many foreign colleagues, the US president is afraid to hear questions from the Chinese leader that he does not have a clear answer to.

Let's start with the fact that now relations between Beijing and Washington are strained to the limit. First, the United States has begun to implement the 2012 Strategic Program of the Year, which aims to shift the vector of national policy towards the Asia-Pacific region. This place of the earth is the sphere of the vital interests of China, but the American plans envisage the redeployment of more than half of the military power of the Pentagon here. In the region, territorial conflicts have already erupted with the participation of China, the escalation of which lies entirely on the conscience of the closest allies of the United States - South Korea and Japan. In general, Beijing today, not without reason, believes that Washington with a long-range view forms the Asian anti-Chinese axis.

Hence, the leadership of the Celestial Empire has a quite reasonable question, is it worth it to finance such an enterprise? After all, China is now the largest creditor of the American economy. While she worked like a clock, solving, among other things, the employment problem of China’s vast labor market, it was possible to close our eyes even to the ripening political differences. However, by the autumn of 2013, it became obvious that the White House had little control over the economy of its own country, and government default was only a matter of time.

Recall, the volume of US public debt is growing much faster than the economy, sometimes overcoming the bar set by parliamentarians. In this case, the president, in order to continue to legally print the dollars necessary to fulfill obligations to the budget and creditors, comes to Congress. Trade begins, the purpose of which is to persuade both chambers of parliament to adopt a law on increasing the debt ceiling.

The last potential budget crisis in the United States was averted at the last minute, with Beijing fussing almost more than the White House. Say, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang bombarded the US State Department with his “extreme concern”, Central Bank Deputy Chairman Yi Gang implored American colleagues to “find wisdom to solve the problem as soon as possible,” and the official PRC mouthpiece Xinhua called on all of us to get rid of the dangerous dependencies, "destroying the Americanized world." Xi Jinping wanted to personally speak with Obama at the APEC summit, which was held in October. But Obama did not come to him, citing participation in those very budget debates. As a result, Congress extended the “borrowing opportunity” for a few more months. The new term expired ... 7 February - the opening day of the XXII Olympic Winter Games in Sochi.

Meanwhile, in mid-January, the website of the Ministry of Finance of the PRC announced that Chinese stocks of US treasury bonds rose to a record amount - $ 1,317 trillion. In addition, China’s dollar reserves reached 3,82 trillion.

On the one hand, the "ocean of money supply" speaks of the economic power of China. However, it is also a difficult burden, as the management of such huge reserves does not provide a special variety of options. Of course, logically, the Chinese should have long decomposed American obligations in various “baskets”, but the global sale of the dollar would not only bring down its value, but, above all, undermine China’s own currency reserves. Therefore, Beijing has no choice but to continue to lend to the US economy, buying more and more new US government bonds for "their" dollars. “China went to bed with our treasury for too long and will not be able to get out of it too quickly,” Time magazine says ironically.

It is strange, however, why journalists forget what will happen when China gets out of it. Even if slowly. (“The journey of a thousand whether begins with the first step,” said Confucius). After all, although the economies of the United States and China are as interdependent as possible, the latter is in a far better position. The United States simply has no choice: there is nothing to replace Chinese investment — there is no other player on the global market who could saturate US domestic consumer demand with its goods. There is no country in the world that could, by exchanging its products for dollars, immediately return them to the American circulation in exchange for other “pieces of paper” - US government treasury bonds.

So, whatever the illusions and allegories of American journalists themselves, the fact remains: the USA is a drug addict hooked on the “Chinese needle”.

Given the whole alignment, it becomes clear why Xi Jinping had every reason to worry about the next US technical default, scheduled for February 7. It is logical to assume that Obama did not fly to Sochi due to fear of listening to Chinese claims. After all, with all the virtues, the first black US president is not the king of impromptu. Such a squabble, and even in the presence of high-ranking third parties, would force the head of the White House to be as tough as possible "here and now." As a result, such a force majeure could push China to more decisive actions against the “Americanized world,” above all, to begin the painful process of getting rid of American bonds and dollars.

In order to prevent this, having retained a more or less decent mine, the US president at times of economic turbulence has to significantly limit his foreign policy publicity.

... Only 12 in February, the Congress finally approved a bill on the next increase of the country's state debt limit to 16 in March 2015. This means that the problem of a probable default by the USA is not solved again, but only postponed. That is, Obama’s tactically correct decision “not to tease the Tiger” in the future is only an attempt to postpone the inevitable.

Sooner or later, Beijing, despite the traditional conservatism, will have to abandon the legacy of "previous generations of leaders" and begin to carefully diversify reserves.

The question is not whether it will happen or not. The question is when this happens. But in this case, the US domestic market awaits chaos. The US economy will lose a cheap Chinese product and a cheap Chinese dollar. Consumer prices and lending rates will soar, millions of Americans will suddenly go bankrupt. On the other hand, the Chinese dumping of the dollar on foreign markets will cause the American currency to become cheaper, which will immediately affect the capabilities of the Pentagon, putting the US military and political ambitions in jeopardy. In particular, in the Asia-Pacific region ... So, how quickly China enters its economic super-weapon depends, to a large extent, on the White House itself.

In the meantime, we can state one thing: historical The fact has happened - now Beijing is not afraid of Washington, but vice versa. So in this tandem of the two powers, the role of senior partner finally passed to China.
Originator:
http://ru.fbii.org/analytics/1356.html
28 comments
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  1. dmitrich
    dmitrich 19 February 2014 06: 23
    +5
    he just doesn’t get along in the family, that's all!
    1. waisson
      waisson 19 February 2014 08: 05
      +7
      no, he just agrees with the gays of america laughing
    2. alexng
      alexng 19 February 2014 08: 06
      +5
      Just elephant completely blown away.
      1. skeptic
        skeptic 19 February 2014 10: 38
        +4
        Quote: alexneg
        Just elephant completely blown away.

        He was not afraid of anyone, he was not blown away. Simply, being a "sitz-chairman" can only say what is allowed. Most likely the Americans have prepared a new currency, but for now, the more they take the old green candy wrappers, the better.
        In addition, it does not need to be explained by the fact that they muddied in Ukraine and in the surrounding region of Russia. Smells a cat whose meat is eating.
    3. The comment was deleted.
    4. calocha
      calocha 19 February 2014 09: 15
      +3
      He’s just a Fed henchman ...
    5. LaGlobal
      LaGlobal 19 February 2014 09: 36
      +5
      no, he just needs to shoot himself in the head in the oval office!
    6. The comment was deleted.
    7. jjj
      jjj 19 February 2014 10: 32
      +2
      Americans will throw the whole world anyway
      1. saxa2103
        saxa2103 19 February 2014 16: 47
        0
        and where do they go ??
    8. alone
      alone 19 February 2014 20: 15
      +1
      Whom Obama got scared in Russia?


      He was shown a photo of a surprised Novodvorskaya. That's scared))
    9. pensioner
      pensioner 20 February 2014 01: 26
      0
      Quote: Dmitry
      he just doesn’t get along in the family, that's all!

      And where did the frets come from, if the wife found out: the husband is 3,14 dor !! belay
  2. soldat1945
    soldat1945 19 February 2014 06: 43
    +10
    China is slowly starting to show imperial ambitions from a cheap factory, and the United States in its current state is not quite ready for this, but some provocative response from the United States to China’s actions will surely check that China’s internal fortress and its reaction to external irritators are sure the most interesting is ahead!
    1. dark_65
      dark_65 20 February 2014 23: 38
      0
      take me a place in the front row .. I want to look at the interesting wink
  3. kind
    kind 19 February 2014 07: 07
    +9
    Only on February 12, Congress finally approved the bill on the next increase in the limit of the state debt of the country until March 16, 2015. This means that the problem of a probable default of the USA is not solved again, but only postponed.

    It all reminds me of a pyramid standing on the same domino bone. One wrong move, and the fragile balance will be broken, and there is nothing to keep it.
    1. Lomikus
      Lomikus 19 February 2014 09: 32
      +4
      This "fragile" balance is maintained only by BELIEVE in the dollar!
      1. moremansf
        moremansf 19 February 2014 15: 35
        0
        And what is "DOLLAR" ???
        1. Lomikus
          Lomikus 19 February 2014 16: 50
          0
          What do you want to hear? So much has been said about him that you cannot do 2-3 articles.
  4. nemec55
    nemec55 19 February 2014 07: 14
    0
    Perhaps the redirection of the vector to the Pacific Ocean is an excuse and, roughly speaking, means the surrender of positions or simply Americans can not cope with everything where they are.
    1. Yuri Y.
      Yuri Y. 19 February 2014 07: 34
      0
      Yes, no, no excuse. In accordance with tactics, they are concentrating their forces in the main direction, it is now China. While there is strength.
  5. duchy
    duchy 19 February 2014 07: 18
    +4
    I believe that after the creation and formation of the BRICS fund or bank with the replacement of the dollar with another currency, the United States will drown.
    1. alexng
      alexng 19 February 2014 08: 08
      +3
      It will not sink, but will fly to shreds.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  6. borisjdin1957
    borisjdin1957 19 February 2014 07: 31
    +1
    from the Don.
    Clouds go gloomy over New York!
  7. koksalek
    koksalek 19 February 2014 07: 46
    0
    "moments of economic turbulence ..." well noticed, smiled!
  8. Svetlana
    Svetlana 19 February 2014 08: 39
    +1
    I would not make such optimistic forecasts about the collapse of the American economy. The fact that Obama is far from a brilliant diplomat is obvious, well, it’s not his thing to communicate with the leaders of other major powers as if nothing had happened, if they have tense relations, for this he has more suitable people. But this does not mean America's recognition of its own weakness. As America existed on borrowed funds, it will continue to exist, and the next wars for democracy in any regions of the world will continue to fuel it.
  9. Sergey Sitnikov
    Sergey Sitnikov 19 February 2014 11: 00
    +1
    But I'm definitely not going to convert my savings in dollars into yuan))), everyone is in different baskets + in the season, on the acquired land, the next house "Uzbek engineers" will build - in the currency of gays and other creatures, remember Cyprus, and what right now Yanyka threaten, no confidence in the capitalists, but the amount invested in the construction of a house of 200-250 sq.m. pays off three times!
  10. denson06
    denson06 19 February 2014 11: 17
    +1
    Recently I watched an interview with Xi Jinping, which he kindly agreed to give either to the Rossiya TV channel or to Channel One in Sochi, that is not the point. The bottom line is that this is the smartest person. It was clearly visible that this is a friend of Russia, if I can put it so briefly .. he several times, at one time, re-read all our classics: Dostoevsky, Tostoy, Pushkin, Turgenev, Gogol, Lermontov and much more ... almost I quoted ... his speech is very clearly and competently delivered ... no water ... no turbidity or twists and turns like some "Western" narrow-minded politicians ... an honest, frank and decent person, as it seemed to me confidently ..
    He was asked something like this:
    Correspondent: "You have a very busy schedule, but you still found time to visit Russia again and come to the opening of the Olympic Games in Sochi. How did you find the time?"
    Xi Jinping: "It is customary among us Chinese - if a friend has a holiday or a joyful event in his house, then it is a common joy and everyone should gather and be present ... with this we express our sincere respect to our friends ..."
    Approximately from this angle, his answer sounded. It was very pleasant, and most importantly, sincerity was visible ..
    Then you look on TV at the smile of some Nuland in the photos from a meeting with her "European" partners and you see the difference ... although there really is a difference if you think about the meaning of the words "partners" and "friends".
    With respect... hi
  11. philip
    philip 19 February 2014 11: 53
    0
    Already quite an adult, in his seventies, but as long as I can remember, we are talking about the American debt to China. In the light of the American Far Eastern doctrine, China will simply have to show the mattress toppers. And here you can’t get off with any Olympic kaketstvo. I think it's clear what this is. What remains for Russia in this situation. Yes, the same as always friendship with China. The Emperor of the Celestial Empire in the XNUMXth CENTURY of our era had a personal guard of thousands of Novgorod residents, infa Chivilikhin "Memory". And for the general development, it is not bad to read the most widely read Chinese writer, Soviet intelligence officer, native of Holland, HOLM VAN ZAYCHIK.
    1. Anatole Klim
      Anatole Klim 19 February 2014 12: 19
      +1
      Quote: Philip
      And for general development, it’s not bad to read the most widely read Chinese writer, Soviet intelligence officer, a native of Holland, HOLMAN WAN HARE.

      You probably joked about Bunny, because this is the literary pseudonym of Igor Alimov - a scholar of Chinese studies, he also has a co-author - another orientalist Vyacheslav Rybakov.
  12. andrejwz
    andrejwz 19 February 2014 13: 09
    0
    The question is not whether this will happen or not. The question is when this will happen. But in this case, the US domestic market is waiting for chaos. The US economy will lose a cheap Chinese product and a cheap Chinese dollar.

    Yes? And the author did not think that China, without the sale of a "cheap Chinese product" and with the loss of the American market, will also face chaos. Does China need it?
  13. scientist
    scientist 19 February 2014 13: 19
    +3
    All the same, China will have to get rid of these $ candy wrappers. The TS has long been making payments in the national currency, Russia with China as well. While the United States still has allies, all American bonds need to be dropped by these allies, let them have a headache.
  14. project sity
    project sity 19 February 2014 13: 46
    +2
    America has only one way out War - probably))) So far, China has not completely boiled out in armament))
    1. Black
      Black 19 February 2014 14: 19
      +2
      Quote: project Sity
      America has only one way out War - probably)

      So they tried to do this in different parts of the world.
      But themselves ??? This is very unlikely.
  15. Ek.Sektor
    Ek.Sektor 19 February 2014 15: 00
    0
    Alas, I have little knowledge of the economy, but if the United States gets cheaper, and it gets cheaper, as the article says the question is only in time, then this will not come back to us from the best side, it’s like all the accumulations of our country in America and in the same worldмdollars, or am I confusing something?
  16. Sergey XXX
    Sergey XXX 19 February 2014 16: 18
    +1
    "Now it is not Beijing that is afraid of Washington, but vice versa. So in this tandem of the two powers, the role of the senior partner has finally passed to China."
    It’s time to forget about the amers, after all, no one is complex about the demarche of the Balts, they are solid and behave respectably ..., well, like Xi Jinping with his arrival at the Olympics.