Geopolitical shift in favor of Russia
To understand the current Russian situation in geopolitics, several key factors should be taken into account, those “whales” that provide the basis for geostrategic planning and forecasting. There are globalization challenges, the activities of TNCs, and the undermining work on the “internal front” of non-governmental organizations, and state expansion. Any impact on the system is caused by a search for a certain result, and the chain of impacts can even lead to the collapse of the political system, which was perfectly shown by examples of the once stable USSR or, today, relatively stable Middle Eastern and North African states that passed through the destructive western scenario of the Arab Spring.First of all, political scientists take into account the globalization challenges of the 21st century (terrorism, which has long been transformed from domestic not just into international, but into so-called “network”), weapon mass destruction, the activities of drug traffickers, ethnic and religious crime, mass migration processes, local conflicts that go beyond the limits of one country, spreading hotbeds of instability to entire regions). Secondly, the geopolitical situation is largely a consequence of the activities of transnational corporations, for the sake of obtaining additional profit, often interested in political redistribution of spheres of influence and infringement of national interests. The economy dictates the policy is often in the case of state expansion - this is the third. A well-known example of such an active expansion is China’s current policy with respect to disputed islands or credit trading in some republics of Central Asia. Fourthly, speaking of geopolitics, one can not ignore such a significant factor as the impact of foreign policy actors on the situation inside the country. With such an impact, inspired by the external enemies of a certain people, a relatively stable country in five to seven years, or even more quickly, can turn into a decaying state that is slipping into feudalism. Geopolitical enemies operate in an overly open country under the guise of NGOs (the so-called non-governmental or non-profit organizations), international “movements”, charitable organizations to combat disease, child mortality, etc., in fact, undermining a relatively stable country and making it target for hostile surrogate ideologies. In Russia, this is exactly how the policy of the United States manifests itself, often noted in sponsoring various organizations and movements. Once Ambassador Michael McFaul said: “Experience shows: I know that we don’t do this here. This is our clear policy. Other administrations have been doing this. And it is true. Read your history, guys. You just have to learn the facts. ” He added: “In America, a change of administration means a change in foreign policy. Condoleezza Rice, she is also a professor at Stanford University, could not be the author of the “reset”, because eight years before us she was engaged in a different foreign policy towards Russia. ” In fact, this is a recognition that the White House was “engaged”, as McFaul put it, “with this”. We have no doubt that the White House (or rather, the State Department) to this day is “doing this”. Probably, McFaul goes home just because he had this “occupation” failed.
If we consider the geopolitical position of Russia in the light of some of the factors described above, we will see some positive changes that have occurred in recent years concerning our country.
At the end of the last century, the negative trend that led to the collapse of the USSR, the birth of the “bastard” of the CIS, the replacement of the Brezhnev constitution, the degradation of the economy of the “independent” Russian Federation, the full involvement of Moscow in the orbit of Western interests, primarily the US, Chubais-style privatization, monetarist Gaidar-style reforms and the rapid embezzlement of Soviet folk production by “oligarchs” led to negative changes in the sphere of geopolitics. They simply ceased to reckon with Russia, it fell back not even to the second, but to third roles, almost into the “extras”. They started talking, and not without reason, that the Russian Federation is nothing more than a raw materials appendage of the West. The unpunished bombing of the socialist Yugoslavia by the NATO forces, for example, under Brezhnev, is something unthinkable. If the USSR and the USA formed the bipolar world, which served as a kind of two-system reference point - you are either for the “commies” or against them, then at the beginning of the 1990's. The "commie" was gone, and the world was taken over by the only gendarme - the United States, relying, among other things, on the power of NATO. And the Russians need only repeat after Zadornov: "Well, stupid ..."
By the beginning of the XXI century, the price of mineral raw materials, primarily oil, began to rise rapidly, which allowed Russia to get out of the enslaving debt hole dug by the “credit institutions” of the West.
Since 2007 in the West, the first signs of an imminent dreadful crisis have appeared, and in 2008, a powerful wave of financial collapse has covered the whole world, not even sparing the United States. The banking crisis, the mortgage crisis, the crisis in the real estate market, serial bankruptcies, large and small, rising unemployment, massive layoffs, reduction of government spending with the rapid growth of public debt, a strong drop in GNP growth, inflation - these are the main signs of the new “Great Depression”. The throne of the world hegemon - USA - staggered. President Obama, whose government inherited debts and heavy military heritage from Bush Jr. (Afghanistan, Iraq), has an extremely low rating in the homeland and is considered one of the worst US presidents in history. The rejection of the campaign in Syria and the rejection of a joint bombing of Israel’s nuclear bunkers with Iran, as well as an attempt to “reset” with Russia, which the West perceived as humiliating flirting with the Kremlin, showed the entire international community: America is no longer a hegemon. The bipolar world is turning into a multipolar world, where, in the first violins, overpopulated and heavily armed China is surely knocked out, which Washington is very afraid of.
In such an environment, Russia managed to perform well on the geopolitical front. First, last year, by shooting, the American "Tomahawks" of Syria were prevented from shooting. Secondly, with the mediation of Russia, the acuteness of the so-called “nuclear problem” of Iran was lifted: the negotiations of the “six” led to a weakening of sanctions against Iran and the revision of the old tough policy applied to Tehran. Third, the Sochi Olympics are the “brainchild of Putin”, as the Western press writes, turned out to be more timely. Foreign guests arriving in Sochi saw the very wrong Russia with frost at 97 degrees Celsius, stray bears and drunken Russians in hats with earflaps, which some fragrant, aged and drunk propagandists who think in the spirit of the cold war paint in their absurd articles. Fourthly, thoughtful propaganda also played a role. The RT channel broadcasts to foreign audiences in different languages and broadcasts programs on the network, shaping and polishing the image of Russia. The struggle for traditional family and social values, opposed to Western corrupting gay parades and the moral devastation of Westerners in general, is widely reported in the Russian and Western press. This last one turned into a faceless consumer in the 21st century, whose tolerance in fact lies in the fact that it allows for the complete suppression of national self-consciousness and is willing to mindlessly consume what corporations will impose on it. This is no longer an individual, not a person, it is nothing more than a standard product of the stagnant era of mass culture. (However, Russia is not without a drop of tar. Having succeeded on the external front, Russia has forgotten that it has long been transformed from the inside into the same faceless West. Our state-run television channels, in fact, preach the same consumerism, and the “successful” are not wise men, but nouveau riche, "stars", residents of Rublyovka and other toadstools that twitch on 24 TV screens an hour a day.)
In parallel with the United States, the NATO bloc is weakening. The White House has repeatedly explained to the European allies that they should adequately, fully fund the maintenance of NATO forces. However, things are still there. The crisis has undermined the power of the Alliance. In fact, NATO is on the verge of collapse, and European politicians are talking about their own armed forces and the rejection of NATO programs.
The relations between the US and the EU are further cooled due to the revelations of Edward Snowden. By the way, this man was sheltered by Russia - again, benefiting from the current situation. The United States has become a violator of human rights, and Russia has become their protector. Americans are now puzzled on trying on totalitarian clothes.
Europe is shaken not only by the crisis, but also by separatism, which is widening in Britain, Italy, France, Belgium, Denmark, Spain ...
The rift between Western countries also occurs in foreign regional policy. Neither Britain nor France, the first allies of the United States, supported the White House initiative to bomb Syria in 2013.
The result for Russia: the West has ceased to be a united front, as it was during the Cold War. It can be noted that Russia here simply took advantage of the current situation, playing on the weakening of its former NATO partners and considering that the parliaments of many European countries no longer want foreign wars or "operations."
The return of the Kremlin to Central Asia is also a natural result of the weakening of Western influence. ISAF will soon leave Afghanistan, President Karzai does not want to sign agreements with the Americans. True, China is also actively entering Central Asia, which in the economic sense represents the strongest competitor for Russia. And no SCO will prevent China from dictating its interests in the region. More precisely, the SCO will even contribute to this. The next few years will show who will economically "steer" in Central Asia.
As for the prevention of internal corruption of Russia, here the Kremlin rather prudently “turned off” some NGOs.
13 July 2012 The State Duma adopted amendments to the law “On Non-Profit Organizations”. Non-profit organizations in Russia received the status of a foreign agent. The definition applies to those organizations that are engaged in "political activity" in Russia and, most importantly, receive "cash and other property from foreign states, international and foreign organizations, foreign citizens and stateless persons."
In the same year, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID, USAID), the so-called “independent” agency of the US government, ceased operations in Russia, although everyone knows that the USAID administrator and his deputy are appointed by the president with the consent of the Senate, and then these bosses receive instructions from the state secretary.
In recent years, USAID has worked closely in the Russian Federation with the Moscow Helsinki Group, the Gaidar Institute, the Golos Association, the Memorial Society, Transparency International, and others. According to open sources, over the 20 years of work in Russia, the sum of all agency projects amounted to about 2,7 billion.
In September 2012, the Russian government notified the United States of its decision to terminate USAID operations in the Russian Federation. Alexander Lukashevich, representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, said: “The nature of the work of Agency representatives in our country did not always meet the stated goals of promoting bilateral humanitarian cooperation. It is about trying to influence through the distribution of grants to political processes, including elections at various levels and institutions of civil society. Serious questions were raised by the activity of AMP in the Russian regions, especially in the North Caucasus, about which we repeatedly warned our American colleagues. ”
On the other "fronts" in Russia, things are far from being brilliant. There are a lot of not just unsolved, but widening problems in the country: 1) excessive migration, and this is about low-skilled or unskilled labor, as well as organized ethnic crime; 2) the threat of terrorism - this issue became especially acute after the tragic events in Volgograd; 3) a strong dependence of the economy on the global market situation, since the budget-forming industries and the main export of the Russian Federation are primary industries, and other goods are mostly uncompetitive, and even Rosatom’s nuclear projects receive due to ordinary dumping in the market - through loans issued abroad customers by the Russian government (recent examples are Bangladesh and Hungary); 4) oligarchic economy, accompanied by large capital outflows abroad; 5) the absence of a national ideology, which once again confirms: life in the country is based only on the patterns of the consumer society and the variant of primitive cohabitation in the spirit of “you for me - I for you”, characterized by extremely low consciousness and aspiration not to help your neighbor, but to inflate it. Egoism prevails over altruism everywhere - from government to neighbors and within the family. The rather low level of material security of many Russians, for which life is more like survival, also has an effect. Additionally, to put it mildly, the government’s ineffective struggle against corruption (there is no large-scale struggle and is not foreseen) and the prosperity of gentlemen like Serdyukov, Chubais and others who have left for villas on the western shores, which the Russian people cannot understand but can forgive someone. Yes, and not forgive.
Against all this, Russia's geopolitical successes are becoming blurred, and the lights of the Olympics are dimming, reminding other critics of the fairy tale about the Potemkin villages.
In full growth, Russia will rise in geopolitics only when it can at least equalize its internal, that is, national, happiness with a decent strategic game on the international chessboard. It should be good both inside and outside, but first of all inside. And this adjustment and seems to us the central task of state power. No wonder the Russian people today often recall Brezhnev. There is someone to look back on! Under Gorbachev, they talked about the seventies: “Stagnation”, and today our government is still talking about “stability”. However, these words mean the same thing. Stable means steady, only the first word is borrowed.
When our people stop talking about the fact that V. Putin’s foreign “arena” is fine, but inside the country everything’s bad and unfair, then Western critics will be silent, and then we can talk about the real rise of Russia. In the meantime, all the same: waiting, sir ...
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