Of course, the exalted student youth and the traditionally aggressive stratum of the “creative class”, who views Ukraine’s European integration only as a way to accelerate their own emigration (“It's time to blame!”) Or, better, to live less (“Scrab your salary, like Europe!” ), I had no time to think about it, but for the sake of what, in fact, they “maydaniruyut” two months, plunging Ukraine into the tragifars of the “creeping putsch”. But people who are able to critically assess the situation and form their own opinions based on personal observations and conclusions, seeking to live and raise children in their own country, probably should think about whether Ukraine will pay too much for the ghost of "European integration." To defeat corruption, it is worth submitting boring bills, and not throwing “fun mixes”. To establish universal justice, it would be worthwhile to re-privatize, but surprisingly, no one on the Maidan stage wants to start with himself and set an example. Discussion of personalities continues, but not the program of change. The world of illusions has overshadowed many critical views on what is happening. “What do you tell all this garbage about macroeconomics? The people still live worse and worse every year! ”The oppositionist will slyly tell me. As it is easy to see, in 10 years, the pace of housing construction has almost doubled. And yes, not all of these apartments are home to “Family”, Akhmetov ... In 2012, thousands of cars were sold in Ukraine in 363. And not all of these cars bought “mode” for their collection, and the average salary in the country in 2000 was less in 10, as was the number of people who visited the EU. Did the critics live in 1991-93's? During the time of gang lawlessness and semi-annual non-payment of salary on 10-15 $ per month? “Dissatisfaction must be directed into the depths of oneself and begin with oneself. And we rush outward: the government, pension, salary, it’s not there, it’s not there, it’s not like that ... They stumbled into the television and began to condemn. You look at yourself, mate! Did you raise your children? - Not. Did you kill five with an abortion? - Yes. You don't do anything at work - bald, with a beard, 42 of the year, you sit, you play a computer, then you click the mouse button: “Oh, the boss goes, atas!” Funny picture. You work 40 minutes a day and you want a “decent” salary. So where does this country come from? Suitcase leave at the station for 10 minutes and go to the toilet. What will happen? “There won't be a suitcase!” - Peter Mamonov.
The Euromaidan as a whole, as well as the permanently changing demands of the outcasting opposition leaders, is extremely difficult to assess from the point of view of common sense. The requirement to immediately sign the Association Agreement with enslaving conditions with a bright head is difficult to defend. This means that the head should be occupied by others, the best thing is not to think at all, and these are precisely those emotions that serve as an ideal ground for putsch and riots. So, why Ukrainians massively rushed to the Maidans and barricades, without having a clear idea of what they want?
A decisive role in the escalation of mass political aggression was played by the replication of the main political myths, masterfully set by the opposition, with a European subtext, false content and a pronounced conflict orientation.
In my opinion, oppositional mythology is peculiar to:
- lack of a clear program of opposition actions, vague promises and indiscriminate populism (in a situation where supporters of ultraliberal market economy and radical nationalism gathered under the brand of blitz-euro-integration, students and entrepreneurs are the only supporters, the minimum specification of the recipes to achieve the promise of “European” is contra-indicated - realizing that “shchasyachko” will be built precisely at their expense, at least half of the adepts will run home);
- pulling out of the context, a mosaic presentation of information, nonstandings and artificially bringing the logic of opponents to the point of absurdity (on Maidan it is much easier to shout slogans like "Gang - get!", "Bimba!", Europe - it's a lot of luck! ", Etc., jerk and refute the fictional statements of the authorities, rather than trying to create their own program with clear economic calculations - the audience is more likely to be shocking than to graphs, charts and calculations);
- annoying focusing on the positive aspects of European life and equally diligent silence about the problematic points (if the Ukrainian villagers honestly say that after the European association in its current form, they will not be able to sell their household farms, then realizing these “lovely prospects” they instantly would go home, taking care that the children-grandchildren sent to study in the city would stay away from euromaidans);
- enhanced manipulation of the notion “social justice” (by no means poor opposition leaders are much more profitable to promise the masses vague ideals of “social justice” than to tell how their oligarch sponsors evaluate the realism of the fulfillment of these promises, which can only be realized in the event of a total revision of the privatization results) ;
- deliberate pressure on pity, encouragement of double standards of morality and provocations (remember, after some strange events in 30 November, in each regional center there appeared at least one “witness” of how the Berkut fighters kicked a pregnant woman woman?).
From the general we will pass to the private - we will continue the analysis of masterpieces of oppositional mythology.
The standard of living will increase as European standards will be implemented.
Article 56 of the Agreement “Approximation of Technical Regulation, Standards and Conformity Assessment” and Supplement III fixes the terms of this “convergence”, which are completely unrealistic for any economy in the world. So, in particular, it is necessary to adapt the legislation to ensure the item “general product safety” throughout 1 of the year, and elevators - to 2 of the year. In terms of two to seven years, we have to remake our cars, boilers, drastically change the standards for the production of our gasoline, building materials, medical equipment, etc. The saddest thing is that we all have to do it at our own expense (unlike Poland and Hungary, which received for this purpose from the European Union, respectively, 86 billion euros and 51 billion euros, Ukraine was offered only 680 million euros - we 122 times richer or 122 times more stupid than the Poles?). From the State budget for the modernization of these positions in the case of the signing of the Association Agreement, we would have to spend billions of dollars from 5 to 10 annually. Can you imagine how in Ukraine you can change all elevators in two years? And not only elevators, but also the whole system of their functioning. Where does the money come from? Loans? But loans need to be repaid, and the elevator makes a profit solely by including the costs of its maintenance in utility bills. It is in these accounts that the costs of their “Europeanization” will be included. And these are just elevators. Let us add to this the long-standing recommendations of European politicians that communal tariffs should be "economically justified." And we’ll get a bill for utility tariffs quite European (if in Ukraine the population pays less than $ 1000 for cubic meters of gas for 100, then in the EU countries the minimum price limit for the same volume for the same consumer category is set at $ 500, and in the Netherlands, example, exceeded the bar in $ 1000). Salary, the EU, we recall, does not promise to raise, and in the draft Agreement there is no mention of it. Russia, as you understand, as a sign of support for Ukraine’s European integration aspirations, is unlikely to lower the gas price.
Or take another point regarding the transition to the "European standards" of high-speed railways during 5 years. The essence of the issue is that European and Ukrainian railway tracks are of various widths, and in order to “unify” them, the whole canvas should be replaced with a total length of 30 thousand km. “But after all, the Baltic states even joined the EU, but they did not convert the railways to“ euroformat ”, the Euro-optimist exclaims. Not translated, because this condition was not spelled out in the agreement on the accession of these countries to the union. And in the case of Ukraine, this requirement is fixed.
European standards are good - no doubt. But is the society ready to feel them in their wallet and stomach? Moreover, for many it will be a matter of survival. For example, for peasants living at the expense of retail trade in vegetables grown in the garden. European standards do not involve the sale of non-certified products. No meat, no milk, no mushrooms, no berries, no apples, no seeds. Goodbye, station markets! And with them - and thousands of grandmothers, now earning a small addition to the retirement of such trade. Pensions, once again I will focus on this, no EU will not be raised.
Reality. Tight deadlines for the transition to European technological and commercial standards, which require exorbitant budget expenditures, will lead to a huge fall in the standard of living of the overwhelming majority of the population of Ukraine.
Association with the EU will lead to difficulties, but the economy is already in crisis, and the social sphere is at a low level. It will not be worse. Will be. And so much worse that the stability of the first years of the rule of President Yanukovych will be remembered as heavenly time. The opposition understands this too, but, for the sake of its own rating, it gushes out populist statements. So, its leaders are demanding the abolition of pension reform. But ... in Europe, the retirement age is even higher!
In order to gossip about the “beggarly level” of domestic pensions, it is worth comparing the scale of prices in Ukraine and in the European Union. Along the way, remember that there is no phenomenon of “working pensioners” in the West. There is a clear scheme: "Or a salary - or a pension."
Counter question to opposition politicians. How, having 20 billion UAH deficit of the Pension Fund, you can not carry out pension reform? We are so often outraged by the increase in the retirement age for women (I’ll note that with the most liberal rate “per year - for half a year”, that is, in 60 years, women will not be retired before 2021) that they forget to analyze the European experience: age women's retirement ranged from 57 (Italy, but there are frozen in the public sector wages to 2015 year) to 67 years (Iceland, Norway). Most often the bar is fixed at the turn of 65 years (Belgium, Finland, Sweden, Germany, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Austria, Greece). Portuguese Prime Minister, by the way, the other day announced an increase in the retirement age to 66 years - for women too. Against this background, France with the UK (60 years) and Switzerland (62 of the year) look quite liberal. It should be understood that the European structures, which, on our behalf, the “cardio-orange” team nadalzhalivat money, are unlikely to allow Ukrainians to retire before the Germans or Italians.
The external debt of Ukraine (136 billion dollars) is ten times less than Spanish, despite the fact that the population of Ukraine is more than Spain. We live better than 70% of the world's population. Nowhere in Europe there is no such level of shadow incomes, which in sums exceed wages. Europe’s welfare is based on gigantic foreign borrowing (only 16% of Berlin residents own their own housing, youth unemployment in Greece is over 55%, Ukraine has a debt 25 times less than Spain, every German owes an average of 66 thousand dollars, in Sweden - negative deposit interest rate, in Amsterdam over half a million bicycles ...). Doubt-invited to check.
Further. Communal tariffs, which are now artificially restrained by the authorities, will immediately soar to an “economically sound level”. What is it - no need to explain. For renting an apartment, mortgage and communal Europeans pay the lion's share of their salary. And there are no benefits for this. As well, the absolute majority of benefits that Ukrainian citizens enjoy with pleasure are not provided for. For example, on public transport. And such categories as “Chernobyl veterans” and “Afghans” are nonsense for Europe.
Separately, we will try to assess the prospects of the most protest western regions, which, in the event of federalization, will be on starvation. Federalization will have a negative impact on Western Ukraine - this is indisputable. I will read an extract from the State budget so that we know who pays whom. The budget of the Ternopil region earns 243, 985 million UAH, and subsidies from the state budget are provided - 630, 063 million UAH. What is there to comment? Ivano-Frankivsk region earns 341, 938 million UAH, and 776, 532 million UAH - equalization grants from the state budget. Lviv region - 878, 243 million UAH earns, and 1, 358 billion UAH receives from the state budget. These subsidies include payment at a reduced fare, benefits for children and so on. Donetsk region earns 4, 678 billion UAH, and government payments amount to 1, 235 billion UAH. Only Donetsk and the Okrug, giving three-quarters of their earnings, feed three western regions. Will the West Western Ukraine help? I guess the question is rhetorical.
The opposition is ready to take responsibility for Ukraine. The proposal of the Prime Minister’s portfolio to Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Deputy Prime Minister Vitali Klitschko undoubtedly caught the entire fragmented top of the opposition leaders. They talked so long about what they know, where and how to lead Ukraine, that when they were given the opportunity to carry out their plans in practice, they explicitly stated through the mouth of Arseniy Yatsenyuk that they were not ready to take responsibility for the whole country. Of course, it is much easier to organize the seizure of buildings, to demand sanctions for the Ukrainian authorities from the European Union and the United States, to dance on the stage of the Maidan, than to engage in the real economy. Ordinary Ukrainians can not explain why after the Maidan revolution the hryvnia exchange rate fell by 10%, why China and Russia (Prokhorov’s statement) began to seriously doubt the expediency of giving Ukraine multibillion-dollar loans, why the promised "bright European tomorrow" does not come. Departure from responsibility, the substitution of cause and effect, concealment from fellow citizens of the whole background of the Association Agreement with the EU, which is extremely unfavorable for Ukraine (just look at Art. 56), replacement of economic calculations with primitive populist slogans and unfulfilled promises - this was the hobby of the opposition. In Aesop's fable, Hvastun, there is a characteristic episode when a certain type declares that on the island of Rhodes he jumped a very great distance, and refers to some witnesses. When the "record holder" is offered to repeat his achievement ("Here, Rhodes, jump here!"), He refuses. “Wanted to become power? So jump and create a euro-fast! ”- I want to say to our opposition leaders. But no, they are making new demands - on the provision of all ministerial portfolios to Arseniy Yatsenyuk's nominees - as if it depends solely on President Viktor Yanukovych, and not on the Verkhovna Rada. With the same success, it can be stated that the opposition will only give consent to the adoption of the Prime Minister’s seat if the exchange rate of the hryvnia against the dollar 1: 1 is reached. The opposition does not have any serious economic program, and the evasion of their leaders from accepting responsibility for the country is a clear confirmation of this.
Populists can deceive almost everyone, but not the logic of economic processes. In 2008, we already felt calls for social justice and - for Bandits - prisons! ”, Led to a hryvnia collapse from 4, 8 to 8 UAH for 1 $, a ninefold increase in gas prices and a fivefold increase in the country's debt. Today we again hear the “Gang Get out!” And see the growth rate on the interbank market (8,73grn / dollar), and this is only the beginning.
All that the opposition wants is to get the sweet spots in power, leaving the people once again at the bottom of the trough. Failure to sign a treaty with the EU is only a pretext for a forceful seizure of power. Unfortunately, our life only worsened from the revolution. Now our choice is trapped in a narrow corridor between economic collapse and extremely unpopular measures.
Reality. Opposition leaders do not want to share responsibility for the country with those who were supported by about half of Ukrainian voters - pragmatists-business executives, seeking to develop production and export. The opposition requires only dictatorial powers, but not responsibility.
As a conclusion from this “comparative mythology,” the following remark should be made.
The opposition is in favor of a tough version of modernization. With an increase in the retirement age, cuts in benefits, reduced support for domestic producers, an increase in utility tariffs and the devaluation of the national currency.
But it is their right. Worse, she cynically lies, publicly stating opposing populist things. The leaders of the anti-state opposition and their followers have surprising logic to the point of absurdity: the hryvnia rate is stable - this is bad for exporters, you increase taxes to get the economy out of the shadow - that means you are in business, you don’t sign a bonded contract with the EU - it’s sold to Russia, you support development economy - it means trying to shove the country back into the "scoop", and so on.
Nevertheless, it is already possible to sum up some intermediate results. What has the euromaidan community achieved for compatriots?
First, a significant devaluation of the hryvnia, a massive outflow of deposits, marking the beginning of a deep recession in the economy. Secondly, the appreciation of foreign loans for the country due to the fall in ratings is due to political instability. Thirdly, now we will be forced to sign the Association with the EU on any, that is, very unfavorable conditions. Fourthly, very likely federalization and, as a result, reduction of subsidized revenues to regional budgets of Western Ukrainian regions and cities.
I suppose we all will soon see how Western Ukrainian oligarchs "restore social justice", eliminate corruption everywhere (as if in Western Ukraine it has never been born, and the notorious judge Zvarych was operating somewhere in Donetsk) and reprivatized the illegally taken from the state (including including themselves). It will not be fun, but not boring!