Russian miracle of the XXI century
Embellished reality
More than 50 years ago, in June 1963, the premiere of the film was held at the Kremlin Palace of Congresses, which was attended not only by the leadership of the Soviet Union, but also by the entire diplomatic corps. It was a two-part feature-documentary film “Russian Miracle”, filmed by cinematographers of the now defunct country — the GDR — about another country that had fallen into oblivion — the USSR. Filming was timed to the launch of the first Soviet satellite, and ended after the flight of Yuri Gagarin into space. Just at this time, John F. Kennedy said his textbook phrase: "If you do not want to learn Russian, learn physics."
The film told about how a country with a ruined economy and infrastructure, having lost any technology and organizational culture, completely illiterate, in a short time turned into not only a powerful industrial and military power that won the Great War, but also successfully competing for world domination with the United States of America.
It would seem paradoxical, but already in the 70-80 years repeated attempts to show the film “Russian Miracle” on central television encountered the failures of the top television supervisors acting on orders from the then Central Committee of the CPSU. It was said that "it is not necessary to embellish the reality." The “Russian miracle” of that period was no longer necessary for the overwhelming majority of the ruling party-bureaucratic layer. After all, the main point of the film was that the potential of the country of the Soviets was such that at the end of the twentieth century another Russian Miracle was quite likely. For a quarter of a century after the film was released on screens, Soviet science and technology successfully confirmed the withdrawal of East German cinematographers. Practically in all key areas, from space to seabed research, from biotechnology to power engineering, from computing technology to new types of weapons, breakthroughs were made that, with their engineering and industrial reinforcements, could revolutionize the world economy.
This is not an exaggeration. Immediately after joining Ronald Reagan as US President, the Socrates project was launched at the highest level under the guidance of physicist, Colonel M.Secora. The most detailed, documented and focused to date report on the project "Socrates" was published in Erwin Ekman's book “President Reagan’s Program to Secure US Leadership Indefinitely: Project Socrates”. The main objective of the project was to objectively analyze the level of competitiveness of critical US industries, identify areas of science and technology, where the United States lagged behind the USSR, Europe, Japan and implement extraordinary measures to overcome the backlog and ensure leadership in all critical technologies for the 80- . The project was implemented in all key branches of science, industry and technology of the United States with the involvement of all the largest high-tech corporations, universities, research centers, etc.
In the USSR, perestroika happened at that time. Scientific and technical areas were covered and lost funding literally every month. In general, while the American state took up the elimination of the technological lag, a massive injection of funds into science and technology, the Soviet Union preferred a dead-end model of petroleum consumer socialism. At the same time, in the country, the words of the overseas President D. Kennedy were taken to the leadership to act with exactly the opposite. They quit learning physics and began to learn English.
Despite all the unfavorable circumstances, the islands of high technologies continued to develop within various segments of the Russian economy and, above all, the military-industrial sector. Surprisingly, the Soviet Union achieved the greatest success in most spheres of science and technology at the technological level at the very end of the 80s, when the previously created scientific reserve fully began to operate. The symbol of the triumph of the Soviet technological power has not yet been reproduced in the world, the launch into orbit of a large-tonnage unmanned, returned orbital complex Buran with its successful return to Earth. Another striking illustration of these achievements is the recent pre-New Year publication of one of the largest American magazines, which highlighted the seven most promising energy technologies for the next 15 years in the field of nuclear energy. Five of them for the 1991 year already existed in the Soviet Union, either in the form of prototypes, or brought to the stage of engineering calculations and bench tests.
In the post-Soviet, "democratic, market-oriented Russia" no one ever mentioned the film "Russian Miracle". And no one talked about the embellishment of reality. At the global level, there were already other tasks: recognize the reality as criminal, forget about it and never return to it. These goals were largely implemented. And the main thing is that a stable installation was hammered into the public consciousness that no new Russian miracle could exist anymore, that the new Russia should simply be built into the global process and enjoy the benefits of Western civilization, without pretending to be any primacy or development.
On the threshold of the Third Industrial Revolution
However, what happened happened. After the collapse of the USSR, the mutation of capitalism, consumer finance, finally triumphed in the world. In 90-e zero years, it seemed that scientific and technical progress was stopped forever and all developments boil down to the release of a new ipad model or other gadgets. Perhaps it would have continued if not for the global financial and economic crisis that began in the 2008 year. Under the threat of a total large-scale catastrophe in the West and in the East, scientific and technological forces weakened and suppressed by the collapse of the USSR came into action, which joined with state, venture and risk capital that rose to their feet during the Internet revolution and accumulated huge resources of all types of information giants, and certain political forces interested in the survival of the global world system.
In parallel with the pursuit of partially targeted, and partly spontaneous measures to limit the omnipotence of speculative financial and banking capital, corporate, state and social structures, relying on high technologies, were strengthened as a guarantee for the survival of modern society and ensuring its development.
It is curious that even now, when the country broke out of the chaos of 90, the ideological machine and the left and the right mostly speaks about the difficult prospects of economic and financial development, it has severe social consequences. At the same time, in modern Russian society, the problems associated with the economic wonders of the 21st century, which are discussed in Western and already Eastern society, are practically not discussed.
And the available information shows that with all the undoubted acute problems, contradictions and difficulties that exist in the United States, Western Europe and Japan, the Third Industrial or Industrial Revolution is unfolding and is gaining momentum right before our eyes.
It owes its name to the international bestseller Jeremy Rifkin's Third Industrial Revolution, which has become the reference book for many politicians in both the East and the West. Its author is recognized as one of the most influential economists of our time. He is an adviser to the European Commission. His admirers include Barack Obama, the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party, the Government of Brazil, and in the post-Soviet space the leadership of Kazakhstan. On the basis of Rifkin’s ideas, a plan was developed for the further economic development of the European Union, which has already been adopted by the European Parliament.
Along with the book of J. Rifkin about the Third Industrial Revolution, two more works were announced. They became reference books not only in high government offices, but, above all, in business, among the new generation of scientific, technical, and programmer classes. These include Peter Marsh’s book, The New Industrial Revolution: Consumers, Globalization and the End of Mass Production (The New Industrial Revolution: Consumers, Globalization). Peter Marsh, editor of one of the world's most respected Economist magazines, a regular contributor to the Financial Times. And Chris Anderson's bestseller Producers: A New Industrial Revolution (Makers: The New Industrial Revolution).
With all the differences in positions, the authors are united in the fact that the production revolution means deep, quick historical perspective, spasmodic (phase) changes in the very foundations of equipment and technologies used in all major sectors of the economy. These changes lead to irreversible and qualitative changes in the organization of labor and production, supply systems, marketing and consumption. The production revolution is changing the basic structures of economic life. Completely rebuilds society and the usual ways of regulating it. Transforms political institutions. Any production revolution has undeniable positive effects and is inevitably associated with a number of negative social consequences and problems for the broad masses of the population.
The third industrial revolution in its scale, consequences and shifts is not only on a par with, and perhaps even surpasses the first and second industrial revolutions. The first industrial revolution of the end of the XVIII - beginning of the XIX century was associated with the textile industry, steam energy, coal, railways, etc. The second industrial revolution of the late XIX - first half of the XX century became the brainchild of electricity, internal combustion engines, the triumph of mechanical engineering and the pipeline, as a method of organizing production.
Already in the initial stages of the Third Industrial Revolution, several defining features can be distinguished:
- first, the simultaneous widespread production use of various independent clusters of technologies. First of all, robotics, 3D printing, new materials with engineered properties, biotechnology, new information technologies and, of course, diversification of the energy potential of production and society;
- secondly, the ever-increasing interaction between individual technological clusters, their peculiar “sticking”, mutual cumulative and resonant influence of a friend on a friend;
- thirdly, the emergence on the borders of technological clusters of fundamentally new, previously non-existent technologies and families of technologies in which the clusters interact with each other.
The basis of the transformation of individual technological clusters or patterns into a single technological package is played by information technologies, which penetrate literally all sides of technological and industrial life, linking separate technological units with each other. The most striking examples of this are such technological patterns as biotechnology, robotic technology, controlled on the basis of big data, etc. In fact, already at the initial stage of the industrial revolution, we can talk about the formation of a single technological package of the Third Industrial Revolution.
In the sphere of organization of production and labor, a distinctive feature of the Third Production Revolution is the miniaturization of production in combination with network logistics and personification of product consumption. As K. Anderson noted in his work: “If earlier effective production and effective marketing and sales networks were only possible for large plants, large retail networks and transnational corporations, then in the very near future it will be available to everyone.” True, with all the miniaturization and democratization of production, the dependence of the small producer on Big Data suppliers, software products and intellectual services, which J.Rifkin believes will remain, the largest information companies such as IBM, Google, Amazon, etc., will simultaneously increase.
In other words, the decentralization of production, the transition to direct relations in the sphere of distribution and personalization of consumption will occur in conditions of preservation of the dominance of digital giants controlling the key technology of the Third Production Revolution - a system for collecting, storing, intelligent processing and distributed delivery of digital data and computer programs of all types and sizes .
The first key direction of the Third Industrial Revolution is the rapid automation and robotization of production. According to experts, fundamentally many elements of automation and robotization could be introduced into industrial production as early as 80-90s. However, in those days it turned out to be more economical to use instead of robots practically free labor of workers from China and other Asian countries. But after almost a quarter of a century, the situation has changed. On the one hand, labor in Asia has noticeably risen in price. On the other hand, the deindustrialization of America, many European countries and partly Japan dealt a severe blow to the economies of these countries. Finally, during this period, fundamentally new software and microelectronic solutions have appeared that make it possible to significantly increase the efficiency and functionality of robots while reducing the cost of their production. Today, for example, a typical American robot on a conveyor pays off within one and a half, maximum two years.
Already in America more than 9 thousand of fully automated productions are operating or preparing for launch in the coming years. And this is just the beginning. In the United States, on 10, 000 workplaces in production account for 870 in fully automated workstations, in Japan - 400, in Korea - 270, China- 32. No less impressive statistics are available for the so-called human-like industrial robots of all types. In 2012, according to the International Federation of Robotics, humanoid robots were most widely used in South Korea. There, 10 000 employed accounted for 400 of such robots, in Japan - approximately 320, in Germany - 250, in the USA - 150.
Currently, the undisputed leader in the production of industrial, high-tech robots are the United States of America. This year, slightly less than 20 thousand units of high-tech anthropomorphic robots were delivered to US enterprises. In our country in 2012, there were only 307 robots. Of these, 65 came from abroad. For comparison, in the tiny Czech Republic of thousands of similar robots.
For the sake of justice, it must be said that the United States is not a leader in industrial robots already established. The first place confidently holds Japan. The second place is occupied by China. And only in third place - the United States. South Korea and Germany close the top five. At the same time, according to experts, Chinese robots are less technologically advanced and are used mainly in elementary assembly work associated with the release of traditional gadgets and household appliances.
The second direction of the Third Industrial Revolution, and in the opinion of Chris Anderson, even its main driving force is the 3D seal. At the heart of 3D printing is a technology called Additive Manufacturing, that is, additive (well, to say "phased") manufacturing. The method implies that the printer forms the product in layers until it becomes final. 3D printers do not paint on paper, but “grow” an object from plastic, metal or other materials.
Methods of three-dimensional printing are also noticeably different. The 3D printer can apply liquid by layer (for example, ceramics or plastic) layer by layer, which solidifies immediately. A more technological method is widely used, where the raw material is powdered metal (for example, steel, titanium, aluminum). In this case, the laser beam slides on separate layers and, according to a predetermined program, melts and sticks together one or another particles with each other. There are many more different types of 3D print. At the end of 2013, over a thousand models of various 3D printers were released, designed for both fundamentally different printing methods and materials used, and for a completely different budget. Currently, a number of major manufacturers of 3D printers have come up with Internet giants, such as Google and Amazon, with a proposal to the US Government to supply 3D printers for the first time to the vast majority, and then to all schools. And in the subsequent to adjust obligatory training at lessons of work to work with 3D printers.
If at the first stage, printers mainly used geeks and advanced designers, then it was the turn of engineers and designers. Leading companies have begun to actively use 3D printing for modeling. Then the 3D print went to the masses. For example, Princeton graduate Marcin Yakubowski created a whole social network that brings together engineers, designers, and 3D print enthusiasts who work together to develop Global Village Construction Set - all you need in a “global village”. The network publishes open access 3D drawings, diagrams, video instructions, budgets and user instructions. The result is what K. Anderson calls the "cloud industry" or "cloud production." According to him: “You upload an order to a global network cloud for a product that interests you, where further this task finds its optimal performer who can do it as quickly, efficiently and cheaply as possible.”
This year there was a breakthrough in the field of industrial use of 3D print by major corporations. 3D print lines are currently being built by Boing, Samsung, Siemens, Canon, General Electric, etc. As a result, by the end of 2013, the global market for 3D printers was estimated from 3 to 3,5 billion dollars and doubled on average over one and a half years, i.e. follows the famous computer law of Moore.
The undisputed leader in the production and use of 3D printers is the United States. They account for almost 40% of world production of 3D printers. About 10% is accounted for - the share of Japan. Almost as much in Germany and China. The top five with 6% closes the UK. Russia in the field of industrial applications 3D printers ranks tenth. As for the sector of using 3D printers as the basis of mini-factories, in Russia, along with Africa, there are no such industries, according to the world's leading expert in the field of 3D printing, with the exception of a few educational laboratories.
The third direction of the new production revolution is the production of new materials, including materials with pre-designed properties, composite materials, etc. The need for the emergence of a wide range of new materials is dictated, on the one hand, by the requirements of widespread introduction of cost-effective, efficient 3D printing, and on the other, by the development of microelectronics, biotechnology, etc.
At one time, new materials science was associated exclusively with nanomaterials, i.e. with new materials produced on the basis of miniaturization. However, the reality was somewhat different. For all the importance of nanotechnology, the production of materials with predetermined, designed characteristics required on the one hand for a product made of this material to perform its function has taken a key place, and on the other hand, the possibility of using new materials for processing such materials, such as 3D print. The leaders in the new materials science and the production of fundamentally new materials are again the United States, Japan and Germany. Russia, in spite of the colossal scientific and partially technical groundwork created in the Soviet years, due to the achievements of the institutes of the USSR Academy of Sciences and the activities of the composite industry, is not currently among the leaders. Although some Russian scientists have some developments. A striking confirmation of this was the fact of awarding the Nobel Prize in physics for the 2010 year to A. Geim and K. Novoselov for innovative experiments with graphene. They received the Nobel Prize as researchers at the University of Manchester, but the work was done while still working at the Scientific Center in Chernogolovka.
The key focus of the Third Industrial Revolution is without a doubt biotechnology in the broad sense of the word. In essence, this includes the industry of individualized drugs, which are relied on by both the pharmaceutical giants and new, young, rapidly developing companies in this field. This also includes various types of regenerative medicine. 3D printing capabilities are widely used for the production of donor organs. Today, this is no longer a fantasy, but a routine that has passed clinical trials, which have been adopted, for example, by medical institutions in France, Germany, the United States, etc. Literally the other day it became known that a “bio-pen” was created and is being industrially produced. It allows you to deliver living cells and growth factors directly to the site of injury.
A special area is bioinformatics. Four years ago, a group of researchers led by John Craig Venter managed for the first time in history to create artificial life using the DNA of one of the viruses. Now this team can, as they say, produce new types of bacteria and living organisms directly from the computer. J. Venter said so that they managed to make "the first self-reproducing biological species on the planet, whose parent is a computer." In the 2009 year, after receiving B. Obama, the studies wanted to be classified. But in the end, they decided to open the development to the world. Today, according to J. Venter, synthetic biology is "a powerful set of tools that in the coming years will lead to the creation of effective vaccines against a wide variety of diseases, ranging from influenza to AIDS." True, he warned of a terrible danger, falling into the hands of terrorists and extremists.
It should be noted that up to 1991, Soviet microbiology and bioengineering occupied leading positions in the world. According to American experts, thanks to the existence of a specialized Russian committee - Glavmikrobioprom, with a large network of subordinated research and production centers and training institutes, the Soviet Union was noticeably ahead of all other countries of the world in many areas of biotechnology and genetic engineering. However, then, under the flag of combating biological weapons and in the conditions of the pogrom of high-tech branches of the domestic industry, a significant portion of the potential was lost. Although, according to foreign experts, with proper mobilization of forces, Russia can, based on existing developments and achievements, operating scientific schools, the diaspora of Russian biotechnologists working abroad, catch up.
The first and second industrial revolutions radically changed the main energy source. If the first industrial revolution was implemented on coal, the second industrial revolution was the brainchild of oil and electricity. Unlike other areas, there is no unanimity among specialists regarding the energy basis of the Third Industrial Revolution. In particular, the author of the first and most popular book about the Third Industrial Revolution, J. Rifkin was a staunch supporter of "green" renewable energy. Moreover, he was one of the initiators of the development of the EU plan for the closure of nuclear power plants, reducing the use, in his opinion, of environmentally harmful power plants for coal, oil, etc. Today, European industrialists, paying tribute to J. Rifkin in other areas, often with an unkind word commemorate the “greening” of energy, as well as the promotion of delusional ideas for replacing gas with wind turbines and similar “green” tricks.
Without undue noise, most theorists, and most importantly, practitioners in high government posts responding to the Third Industrial Revolution, believe that the future belongs not to renewable energy sources, but to fundamentally new types of nuclear energy, advanced technologies for the extraction of gas and oil-containing elements, as well as completely new types of energy.
The core component that permeates all the technological clusters of the Third Industrial Revolution and turns them into a single technological package is, without a doubt, information technologies. In relation to the theme of the Third Industrial Revolution, three key components stand out in the structure of information technologies.
The first. This is Big Data. Big Data - is the collection, storage, digitization, processing and presentation in a user-friendly form at any time and at any point of the totality of information about certain events, processes, events, etc. The key to Big Data is that they allow you to work with all the information online. The main word is "all". The user of Big Data has the whole picture, which does not depend as before on any samples, restrictions on sources, time to provide data, etc. Big Data can include any format - from tables to streaming video, from digitizing old reports, to text recordings made by various sources. Never before, in the history of mankind, those involved in the analysis, forecasting, design and engineering activities, decision making have not been able to operate with all the information. Moreover, it is not easy to operate, but to receive this information in a convenient and accessible form. Today, the undisputed leaders in the field of Big Data are the United States, Britain, Japan and China. In these countries there are a large number of platforms providing work with big data, special training courses, many centers where companies can get advice or services related to big data.
In Russia, I must say bluntly, the situation is deplorable. With the fact that in our country a powerful algorithmic and mathematical base for the intellectual analysis of Big Data has been developed, there is no data itself by and large. What we call the Big Data overwhelmingly is the traditional business analyst used abroad for many years. Specialists in large data in the country are not yet prepared. There are no accelerated retraining centers. Today we have the only book devoted to this topic, which is more likely to be a popular science character rather than academic (W. Mayer-Schönberger and K. Kukier) “Big Data. A revolution that will change the way we live, work and we think ").
By themselves, Big Data is an essential public and corporate asset that, if used properly, provides their owners with daunting intellectual superiority and business dominance.
The second. These are cognitive calculations and expert systems. Over the past two to three years, the United States and part of Britain have managed to make a genuine breakthrough in the field of creating expert systems based on so-called cognitive calculations. The basis of cognitive calculations are programs that, to a certain extent, simulate and mimic some well-known psycho-physiological processes. Due to this, programs have been created that have the capacity to self-write and improve, taking into account the mistakes they made when solving various tasks. The most famous expert system based on cognitive computing was the famous IBM Watson computer, which won the completely human game “Own Game”. After the victory on the playing field, Watson showed high results as an expert system in medical oncology, pharmaceuticals, police investigations, exchange business. According to estimates of various experts in the coming 7-12 years, he can suppress up to 70% of workers engaged in routine mental work in various fields of activity. The main thing is not even that. Expert systems give their owners and users immense intellectual power, putting at the service the wealth of human knowledge, multiplied by the power of computational algorithms. It should be noted that IBM is no longer a monopolist. The active work in this direction was announced by Google, Facebook, Amazon.com and so on.
Third. This is cloud and distributed computing. As it is easy to see, the enormous power and software resources required to work with Big Data, cognitive computations, the creation of powerful Watson-class expert systems are affordable for the largest corporations. Under these conditions, the development of cloud-based distributed computing, i.e. Creating platforms that can be used by dozens, hundreds, or even millions of users simultaneously makes Big Data, cognitive computing, and the most powerful expert systems accessible to the smallest business and individual citizens. Already today, IBM has opened cloud Watson for third-party developers, and they make custom programs for small businesses.
In other words, the three components of information technology allow us to endow decentralized small and ultra-small production based on robotics, 3D printing, biotechnology, and so on. powerful intellectual resources provided by major corporations.
True, the price of such an endowment and the general use of intelligent cloud technologies is the rejection of the Third Industrial Revolution, such as J. Rifkin and C. Anderson, which is proclaiming by a number of pioneers, an exclusively democratic, fully networked character of the Third Industrial Revolution, where there will be no hierarchy. This, of course, is an illusion. But it does not in any way cancel the future that comes in countries where the Third Industrial Revolution unfolds literally not by day, but by the hour.
Currently, information technologies are a kind of platform for technological development, just as during the second industrial revolution, mechanical engineering was such a platform. The era of digital production is coming.
Digital production takes the most unexpected forms. Currently, several US companies engaged in the production of robots and 3D printers, including Google, are engaged in the implementation of the project Factory-in-a-Day. The first mini-plants of this kind are meant to be launched in 2015 year. The project should allow to deploy automated production not only in large enterprises, but also in medium, small and superfine, no more than in 24 hours. These plants are equipped with flexible multifunctional robots, 3D printers, laser cutters, etc. Robots, printers and other equipment come with the most popular programs already loaded in them, ensuring their efficient operation. Those. The plant is shipped in the same way as a smartphone or tablet with software preinstalled today. Everything you need during the day can be obtained from the cloud. In advance, before the delivery of the enterprise, its owners and staff receive a training course on a computer game enterprise that emulates and trains real activity. During the operation of the plant, as well as in the case of 24 home appliances, a support service and consultation is in touch with users for hours per day. Plus, from the cloud, it is possible to load the necessary additional programs, receive expert advice, and process Big Data.
Fab lab producers went even further. These production laboratories are equipped with multifunctional machines, 3D printers, other necessary devices. The peculiarity of these laboratories is that they not only allow one to produce this or that development or invention in nature, but also have the potential for their own expanded production. In other words, the fab lab is designed in such a way that, using the existing equipment, it is able to complete and expand the existing functionality. Never before has this been foreseen. It is well known that there have always been enterprises for the production of means of production for the production of means of production, etc. Now, within the framework of one enterprise, it is possible to expand both the enterprise itself and produce means of production, and items for the final personalized user.
The ideologist of the fab labs - a teacher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Neil Gershenfeld argued that the production revolution had already taken place, only it is in a latent stage: “The Internet coverage has doubled every year for about ten years. It seemed that the Internet appeared out of nowhere, but in fact it was just developing for a long time and few people noticed it. The same thing is happening now with fab labs, hackerspaces and makerspaces. Or another parallel: when personal computers began to appear, almost all manufacturers of large computers decided that they were toys, something frivolous. And they all collapsed, except IBM. The same with new machines for digital production: they replace the familiar industry and create a new one, undermining the established order. ” There are already hundreds in the world, and next year thousands of fab labs will be created. In 2013, the first fab lab in Russia was opened in Moscow on the basis of MISIS by Neil Gershenfeld.
One of the first fruits of the early stage of the Third Industrial Revolution is the return of production to America and Europe. In 2013, more than half of the companies with a turnover of one billion dollars announced that in the next few years production from China and other Asian countries would fully return to the United States. In the USA lately the growth rate of industry exceeds the dynamics of many other sectors of the economy. More than 500 thousand non-seasonal jobs created. This of course cannot be compared with 6 million jobs lost by the US industry. But these are places in their mass that meet the requirements of the Third Industrial Revolution with the corresponding indicators of productivity and efficiency. It should also be borne in mind that 75% of new developments and technologies and almost 90% of new, registered patents are created in the US in the field of industrial production. It should also be noted that, at present, the United States controls more than 65% of high-tech developments and 55% of high-tech patents in the world. Similar processes are actively developing in South Korea and Japan. The re-industrialization of Great Britain began. Germany remembered, having long rested on the laurels of the most successful highly industrialized economy of the 21st century. He is trying to deploy the Third Industrial Revolution and China. Although it is in China, due to the extremely high excess share of the rural working-age population, and employment by traditional industrial labor of the main part of the urban population, it is very hard to realize the achievements of the Third Industrial Revolution. And what about Russia?
Russian breakthrough
It is clear that in the new conditions the old economy, based on nationwide rent appropriation and squeezing the last remnants of the accumulated technological potential, no longer works. The point of no return is indeed passed. The only way out in this situation is the implementation of the Third Industrial Revolution, and in a variant that is much more decisive and uncompromising than abroad.
In the United States, Europe, Japan and China, there are quite a number of enterprises and powerful transnational groups that belong to them, which belong to the traditional, gradually leaving economy. At one time, the economic breakthrough of the FRG and Japan, and later of China, was largely due to the fact that they created their production potential, in fact, from scratch. The old potential either did not exist or it was destroyed during the war. Instead of hostilities, we had thoughtless market reforms and structurally destructive privatization. Therefore, the field for the Third Industrial Revolution has now been largely cleared. Weakened and groups that link their existence with the traditional outgoing ways. Instead of these groups, we have groups of receivers of various types. But, as history shows, it is easier to counteract renters than monopolistic groups with special interests.
Finally, unlike most of the countries of the world, due to the long neglect of education and qualification training, there are no powerful professional groups that will impede the Third Industrial Revolution. For example, today in the United States lawyers, psychoanalysts, mid-level office workers, etc., are already active in this direction.
It is difficult to prevent that which is incomprehensible, unknown, and, most importantly, is not taken seriously at the moment. And the effect of surprise, again, as evidenced by world experience, with proper will and consistency, allows one to go through the first, most critical phase of technological transformations. As for the skills and knowledge necessary for confident work in the framework of the Third Industrial Revolution, today there is already a whole range of relevant training courses, practical platforms, methods of obtaining not so much knowledge as skills. They can safely use, and not reinvent the wheel. As a last resort, translate key courses into Russian and agree on the possibility of conducting practical exercises, again in Russian. Experience shows that the world's leading universities, as well as manufacturers of robots, 3D printers, cloud platforms, etc. willingly go on it and support relevant initiatives.
The third industrial revolution in Russia is not only possible, but also highly likely. After all, it is not some kind of “Russian miracle”, but a kind of production necessity that needs to be implemented calmly, soberly, systematically and disciplined.
A practical approach to the implementation of the Third Industrial Revolution requires an end, first and foremost, of the "devastation in our heads." It is permissible to take any measures that will make people turn their faces to reality and begin to think more technologically rather than politically.
The third industrial revolution has nothing to do with the X-NUMX s supermobilization projects of the last century, various kinds of “emergency” or driving everyone into giant, highly integrated corporations that will create tens of millions of jobs according to a single plan. Despite the fact that such projects have filled not only the Runet, but also the pages of serious publications, we must be aware that what worked once will not work today. Moreover, the very nature of the Third Industrial Revolution provides for a combination of maximum decentralization, mini-production with access to giant centralized platforms, which are mostly not organizational, but technological. Within the framework of the Third Industrial Revolution, technological expediency becomes the sole criterion for choosing one or another organizational form or property relationship.
Russian breakthrough directions
In each country and region, the Third Industrial Revolution should be carried out and implemented on the basis of national objectives, taking into account regional and country specificities and the current situation.
For the Russian industrial revolution, the refusal of breaking anything effective and working should be the immutable law. The principle “to the ground, and then” was repeatedly used in the history of our country and, by and large, showed its extreme inefficiency.
When it is said and written that the economy of our country should not depend solely on the fuel and energy complex - this in no way means that this complex is not, in fact, the only working sector of the economy that actually provides for its current livelihoods. Therefore, the Third Industrial Revolution should unfold in this complex. This is facilitated by at least three circumstances.
The first. Last year, the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, said: “All mineral resource users, without exception, are obliged to comply with the existing conditions for the development of deposits, to fully extract minerals in the entire area provided, and not to work on the principle of“ skimming ”. Here we have in mind, above all, of course, the use of appropriate technologies ... ”The overwhelming majority of such technologies are well known, and practical testing has passed. Many of them are of domestic origin. Others are our foreign partners of the largest Russian corporations. Therefore, the case for small - start doing business. Moreover, the conjuncture of the oil and gas market leads to this.
The second. Russia in recent years, primarily in the face of the fuel and energy complex, and above all, of Gazprom and Rosneft, is returning to the Arctic. Moreover, it does this on a long-term system basis. Literally in the most recent months, Gazprom launched a unique oil-producing platform on the Prirazlomnoye field on the Arctic shelf. The giant international project Yamal LNG is increasing its production volumes. Gaining capacity located on the Taimyr Vankor field of Rosneft. The preparatory work for the development of the project for the development of the largest deposit of rare-earth metals in Yakutia is nearing completion, where Novosibirsk scientists, private business, the kutia authorities and the federal center have combined their capabilities. Coming to the Arctic, and in general to the North, means not only the creation of new production platforms, but also entire life-support, transportation and logistics infrastructures.
In contrast to the insane projects of Gaidar’s reformers, who suggested simply leaving the European and Asian north of Russia, the largest Russian oil and gas companies with predominant state participation, together with their foreign partners, are actually creating a new Arctic cenosis. This coenosis includes the most advanced technological clusters that form an integral technological package of the Third Arctic Industrial Revolution, complex systems of constant human activity in these areas, the most advanced environmental technologies that protect the ecology of the region, guaranteeing it from repeating the fate of the Gulf of Mexico. It is quite obvious that with a thoroughly thought-out approach, the creation of the Arctic industrial cenosis can become one of the main locomotives of the Third Russian Industrial Revolution.
Here, of course, it is important to overcome the intrinsic desire of the internal bureaucracy to use the development of cenosis to obtain bureaucratic rent, which is typical of any large corporation all over the world, and to cut off advanced solutions and technologies not directly related to corporations from mastering coenosis. This is not a purely Russian, but a global task, and it can be solved only by ensuring transparency, discipline and mutual cross-control of all project participants.
The national task of developing the Arctic cenosis and the implementation of the technological package of the Third Industrial Revolution there should not be questioned in the event of an adverse change in energy prices. There is a significant risk of such a turn of events. However, the task of developing the Arctic cenosis is not the task of a year or even a decade. Therefore, at some stage it is necessary to be prepared for the fact that the development of the Arctic cenosis will be a costly task when state corporations will have to be dated in a targeted way. In this sense, it is extremely important and far-sighted to attract as junior partners foreign participants who are interested in long-term access to the Arctic resources and who can share with our side the burden of creating a technocenosis during the years of unfavorable market conditions.
Third. In the course of the deployment of the Third Industrial Revolution in the world, there is a sobering up regarding various types of advanced nuclear energy technologies. A number of such technologies, often completely ad-free, and sometimes covertly where possible, have been launched in the past few years in the United States, France, the United Kingdom, and China. We are talking in particular about thorium energy, ultra-small nuclear reactors, etc.
The current Rosatom is without a doubt the world leader and confidently controls not only the domestic market, but also highly competitive abroad. In Russia, the nuclear industry and the energy sectors close to it have accumulated enormous potential for fundamentally new projects that are in a high degree of readiness, and with due political will and vigilant control, as well as targeted allocation of resources for such projects, they can be launched and implemented even faster. and better than their foreign counterparts. As abroad, one largely has to start in this area either from scratch or use old Russian patterns.
A separate, fundamentally new task is connected with the unfolding of the Third Industrial Revolution along those lines, within the framework of those clusters and technopacks that are currently being formed in the West and the East. Our big advantage is that the initial work, as they say, the zero cycle was carried out for us by others. Today, the main directions of the Third Industrial Revolution, its main clusters, basic technologies, qualification skills needed to work in new conditions, etc. are clear.
In order to begin this work in our country as quickly and decisively as possible, first of all, organizational measures are needed, as well as changes in some of our usual behavioral attitudes and attitudes.
As practically all the experts seriously involved in both the state and corporate levels of the Third Industrial Revolution note, its main clusters began to form as early as the 70 years of the last century and under the influence of the rapid development of information technologies, before our eyes turned into a single technological package.
Despite all the troubles and troubles that lay in wait for Russian science and technology, it does not represent an absolutely scorched earth. Moreover, in the field of information technology, we have something to boast. In this regard, you need to take for granted the event. It is necessary as soon as possible to conduct a full and detailed inventory of existing developments and technologies included in the clusters of the Third Technological Revolution, with a definition for each technology of its readiness for practical use, etc.
Of course, the subtle point is always the evaluation procedure itself. But in general terms, without further ado, use the world experience. From the point of view of commercialization or practical application the end user should be the main evaluator. In some cases, they are the relevant state structures, in others - interested representatives of the business community, in the third - specialists in technology commercialization in foreign markets. Of course, no inventory takes place without the involvement of experts. But here it is important to rely not on hunters of various kinds from grants from the Russian jurisdiction, but in cases where there are no restrictions on the secrecy regime, to widely attract practitioners from the Third Industrial Revolution from abroad. The huge factography convincingly shows that such experts in the vast majority of cases do not act as industrial spies, but, on the contrary, perform the functions of mentors and consultants. Examples of Singapore, Malaysia, Brazil - the best evidence of this.
There is reason to expect that in a number of areas of the Third Industrial Revolution, the results of the inventory of domestic scientific and technical developments will be disappointing. Despite the undoubted sadness of such a statement, there is, in general, nothing terrible in it. Not so long ago, a well-known researcher Amy Chua published a book, The Day of the Empire, which immediately after the release became very popular in high political and business circles in various countries of the world, including America. The book is devoted to the sources of power of the so-called world "hyperpowers". A Chinese-American American, a professor at Yale University, found that one of the main sources of empire prosperity is their openness to the world, tolerance and goodwill for foreigners, willingness to attract them to the service, to take from the world all the best that has been accumulated.
Actually, for connoisseurs of Russian history in the findings of Amy Chua there is nothing new. It is well known that in the Russian Empire the same Catherine the Second actively attracted the best scientists of the world to the Russian Academy of Sciences, and in order to master the rich soils of Novorossia and the Volga region, she strongly encouraged peasant migration from Germany. During the years of the Russian economic miracle 90-ies of the XIX century many specialists from European countries worked in Russia. There are closer examples. For many years, the role of foreign participation in Soviet industrialization has been diligently hidden. Not that books, but also historical publications, or dissertations on this topic can not be found. Meanwhile, a total of tens of thousands of engineers, designers, highly skilled workers from many countries of the world worked on the industrialization sites. Dozens of factories were designed in architectural and design firms of the United States of America. Hundreds of the largest Soviet enterprises were equipped with the latest technology equipment leading American, German, British, etc. firms.
Therefore, if the Third Industrial Revolution is carried out resolutely in Russia, it is necessary to make maximum use of foreign experience and opportunities in various forms. At the same time, the creation of subsidiary structures of Western giants in Russia is by no means the only, or even the main, best form of technology transfer of the Third Industrial Revolution. It is well known that the developers of this technological wave are universities, as well as small fast-growing companies, which are then often bought by giants, ranging from Google, to Lockheed Martin.
No one is stopping Russian structures from participating in buying up such companies. An impartial analysis of publications on transactions in the high-tech market in America shows that in recent months, 2013 has increasingly become buyers, for example, Chinese, South Korean, and Brazilian companies. There is no reason to believe that the regulators of the United States, Western Europe, and Japan will treat Russian buyers worse than Chinese ones. Considering the opposite would be just another propaganda ploy and unproven judgment.
For the success of the Third Industrial Revolution, one should make maximum use of the network of international scientific and technical cooperation, the possibility of acquiring small foreign high-tech firms and startups, fully utilize the social capital of cross-border Russians employed abroad in the high-tech sector on a permanent basis, or working there on temporary contracts. Naturally, such engagement should be accompanied by the attentive attitude of the state and society to the needs and interests of these people.
A reasonable combination of the internal and external potential of the Third Industrial Revolution, given the weakness of the institutional barriers that hinder it, and groups of special interests, will enable this revolution to be launched in Russia at a faster pace than in many other countries.
The third production revolution. Necessary and sufficient conditions.
For all the importance of technological aspects, the prose of life remains, connected with finances, the organizational support of the Third Industrial Revolution.
By itself, the Third Industrial Revolution is a cost-effective and self-sustainable item in a relatively short run.
However, in any case, the start of technological innovations, especially given the lack of a developed private venture capital infrastructure, will inevitably require a lot of money. And one can hardly expect any significant distractions of funds from the state budget, which for many years will probably be very tense due to unpredictable energy prices.
In this regard, it is hardly worth inventing clever schemes, and it is better to use the already existing domestic and foreign experience in mobilizing resources for high-tech projects.
During the current year, a package of laws will be adopted, envisaged in the speech of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, connected with the decisive deoffshorization of the Russian economy. The purpose of the laws, as is known, is to take the business out of offshore and, among other things, replenish the state treasury.
The state gained the necessary set of procedures, methods and regulatory approaches to correcting previously existing legislative deficiencies and various kinds of abuses generated by them in their experience in fighting offshore companies. The matter remains for small - to extend this experience to the sphere of financing the technological breakthrough. Moreover, do it in such a way as not to get into the treasury, not to use additional funds from the state budget.
Given the trend of charity that has spread widely among billionaires and millionaires in the world, it seems that you can find very serious and influential, extremely wealthy people who would find it difficult for their colleagues to refuse to request a Russian charitable technology foundation. At the same time, the key point should be that everyone who received super profits on privatization and on work with the state should contribute funds to this fund. Moreover, it is probably not the state that should manage this fund, but some other structures. A similar experience can be seen in America in the era of the creation of universities.
Of course, the issues of taxation of companies of the third technological wave, working within the framework of the Third Industrial Revolution, including “closing” technologies, are important. In principle, with some modifications, the Skolkovo regime may well be suitable for these purposes. In this case, the projects will undoubtedly serve the good of Russia.
If you wish, you can also find a considerable number of quite legitimate, strictly corresponding generally accepted world practice principles and methods of financing the “Russian miracle of the 21st century”.
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