Military Review

2013 starts arms race

37



Observers from the international consulting company IHS state: in recent months after a four-year recession, global military spending has gone up, and Russia and China are increasing their military production most actively. NATO experts are already worried about this, but Russian analysts reassure them: Russia is only restoring the potential lost after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and replacing outdated military equipment with modern, that is, the Russian military-industrial complex has not yet begun to work at full capacity, but only only "accelerates." The same can be said about China, which only recently began producing truly own military equipment.

New Arms Race

The global financial crisis in 2009 collapsed the defense budgets of almost all countries of the world. Austerity led both Americans, Chinese and Arabs to abandon many ambitious projects. However, the crisis is coming to an end: according to observers, in 2014, spending on armaments will begin to grow again, and even faster than before the start of financial problems. Russia, meanwhile, is also recovering from the recent crisis and has already managed to pull itself up from fifth to third place in the ranking of the states with the largest defense budgets. Ahead - only the USA and continental China, the United Kingdom and Japan remained behind.

According to the international company IHS, in the coming years, India, China, Oman and Saudi Arabia will become major players in the arms market. Major manufacturers and buyers weapons will be in Asia: European and American manufacturers will lag far behind their Russian and Asian competitors.

As for Russia, IHS predicts that the size of the Russian defense budget in the next three years will increase by 44 percent. If in 2013, defense spending amounted to 68,9 billions of dollars, by 2016 they will increase to 98 billions. Agency staff suggests that the bulk of the funds will be spent on weapons upgrades.

In addition to Russia, the NATO bloc fears the Middle Eastern states: the arms race in the Persian Gulf continues. As always, Iran is to blame for everything: Oman and Saudi Arabia are arming themselves in order to survive in the event of war with the Islamic Republic. Nearby is also Israel, whose intentions to unleash a war with Iran are quite clear. So Tehran has to arm itself in order to counterbalance three regional players at once, not counting the United States and the NATO countries. If Iran weakens a little, the war is inevitable: the West and the Gulf monarchies are unlikely to risk attacking a state capable of giving an adequate response.

Saudi Arabia, wanting to outrun Iran, has tripled the cost of buying weapons over the past 10 years. The modern Middle East is similar to Europe on the eve of the First World War, when the leading powers bought weapons on an unprecedented scale.

IHS observers became interested in China. Already in 2015, the defense budget of this country will exceed the defense budgets of Great Britain, France and Germany combined. Together, Russia and China will spend more on equipping their armed forces than the European Union. However, the PRC, like Russia, has just started: the Celestial Empire is so far limited to replacing obsolete weapons. For example, China recently made a huge leap by abandoning 2nd generation fighters in favor of 5th generation aircraft: the 3rd generation had to jump in a hurry so as not to lag behind the West and Russia. On the navy things are the same: the PRC plans to launch its first aircraft carrier in the near future. Prior to that, Beijing bought all aircraft carriers abroad, and then converted it to fit its needs.

World gendarme is afraid of his equal in strength

However, despite the growth of the military-defense complexes of Russia and China, the United States of America still occupies the first place in the world in terms of the cost of purchasing weapons. The world gendarme does not plan to abandon his baton: Washington cares that no one can challenge him. However, this year, the States plan to reduce their defense budget by 1,3 percent from 582,4 billion to 578 billion dollars. This is largely due to the end of the war in Afghanistan: the cost of "maintaining peace" in this country reached astronomical sums.

It will not be easy to catch up with the United States: for comparison, the defense budget of China, which ranked second in the IHS ranking, has the size of 139,2 billion dollars, and Russia, which is in the third place, has 68,9 billion. It is obvious that China is still weak in order to stand alone against the States. But NATO experts warn politicians in advance: if current trends continue, when US defense spending is gradually declining, and China is growing, the North Atlantic Alliance may be in an uncomfortable situation.

Interestingly, another important member of NATO - the United Kingdom - also reduces the cost of equipping the armed forces. Thus, over the course of 2014, its defense budget will decrease by 3,6 percent and amount to 57 billions of dollars. The UK is fourth in the IHS rankings, its neighbor France is in sixth place with 53,1 billions of dollars.

However, in the confrontation with China, the United Kingdom and France will not help the States. During the Cold War, the Iron Curtain mainly passed through Europe, and therefore the NATO bloc was face to face with the Department of Internal Affairs. However, the North Atlantic alliance is completely unsuitable for confrontation with China, located on the opposite side of the globe. The only help that NATO can provide to the United States in the event of war in the Pacific is just a few warships and small special forces groups. The rest of the fleet will be forced to patrol the Mediterranean Sea and the Somali coast: Europe will not be deprived of these strategically important reservoirs with its attention.

That is why now Washington is counting on cooperation with Asian states and pushing them towards militarization. For example, in 2013, Japan’s military budget exceeded French defense spending: for the first time in 10, the rising sun began to actively invest in the development of self-defense forces. In the IHS ranking, Japan ranks fifth right behind the UK, and only two positions separate it from China.

Thus, the Yellow Sea and the Pacific Coast of China is another area where, along with the Middle East, there is an intense arms race. At the same time, we should not forget about North Korea: although it did not get into the top 5 IHS, it is still actively developing its nuclear program and making all possible efforts to ensure that it does not yield to its southern neighbor, as well as Japan.

The growth of the defense budgets of Russia, China, the countries of the Middle and Far East is viewed by NATO as one of the most difficult challenges of the 21 century. So, according to Anders Fogh Rasmussen, as a result of the arms race, Washington may lose its current influence, and many players will appear on the international arena, “Who do not necessarily share our interests and values”. Simply put, the United States fears the answer to their own tricks: when they are among equal strengths, America will become confused and engage reverse gear.

It can be concluded that there are several arms races in the world right now: global - between the USA and other states, Middle Eastern - between Saudi Arabia, Israel, Oman and Iran, and also Far Eastern - between China and Asian allies of the USA. It is difficult to say how each of these confrontations will end: each of the players pursues extremely pragmatic goals, while ideological differences have faded into the background or are completely forgotten. Many faults are quite surmountable, and if someone offers a reasonable compromise to the opponents, the war will be avoided.
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  1. Igor39
    Igor39 7 February 2014 08: 43
    +7
    Well, the states do not have such a budget, they printed bucks and a mustache.
    1. drossel81
      drossel81 7 February 2014 09: 24
      +8
      It remains a matter of little to convince the world community not to get out of the slave shackles of the dollar, but oh, how easy it is
      1. Ikbol Tajik
        Ikbol Tajik 12 February 2014 21: 52
        0
        Orion forward! Orion forward! Orion forward!
    2. Interface
      Interface 7 February 2014 11: 52
      +1
      I’m afraid for gas prices, if the crisis is bombing, then Kapets GWP-2020. Well, so far everything is fine, but you have to expect everything.
      1. Su24
        Su24 8 February 2014 01: 02
        +1
        Quote: Interface
        I’m afraid for gas prices, if the crisis is bombing, then Kapets GWP-2020. Well, so far everything is fine, but you have to expect everything.


        The program will no longer be abandoned at any energy prices.
        In general, the article "pleased"
        As for Russia, IHS predicts that the size of the Russian defense budget in the next three years will increase by 44 percent. If in 2013 defense spending amounted to 68,9 billion dollars, then by 2016 they will increase to 98 billion


        This is not a forecast, but a draft three-year budget for 2014-2016, which is on the website of the Ministry of Finance.
    3. AVV
      AVV 7 February 2014 22: 13
      +1
      Quote: Igor39
      Well, the states do not have such a budget, they printed bucks and a mustache.

      It's time for them to pour a little sand in the printing machine !!! There will be no bucks as a world currency, the end of America !!!
      1. Gvfrog
        Gvfrog 8 February 2014 00: 27
        +1
        I agree, at 100% by the way, China has engaged in this tightly, they are beginning to make yuan settlements in full.
  2. waisson
    waisson 7 February 2014 08: 59
    +5
    not a race but rearmament, they are afraid of the new army with armed new technology, they were not afraid of the old one because it didn’t exist and now there is a quiet rebirth
    1. Sid.74
      Sid.74 7 February 2014 09: 17
      +5
      However, Russian analysts reassure them: Russia is only restoring the potential lost after the collapse of the Soviet Union

      They reassured NATO, yeah of course! yes
    2. Shick
      Shick 7 February 2014 16: 49
      -1
      taking into account the fact that the United States spends on spending 5 times more, I think they are not afraid of anything
    3. Boa kaa
      Boa kaa 8 February 2014 00: 41
      +3
      Quote: waisson
      they fear the new army armed with new technology

      You can be afraid of someone who threatens you. We are not threatening anyone - and they know about it. So what's up?
      And the fact is that the milestone "2020" is approaching, and the victim (RF) has been reanimated, is building up forces, re-equipping its Army and Navy. Therefore, there is not enough strength to carry out what was planned without unacceptable damage to oneself. And the economy can no longer withstand such a load.
      Where did I get this from? From the statements of the puppeteers. K. Rice directly stated the need for the partition of Russia. Z. Brzezinski: "A new world order under US hegemony is being created against Russia, at the expense of Russia and on the ruins of Russia" ... (from a speech on the occasion of the assignment of an "honorary citizen of Lvov", 1999) Siberia with its riches. Etc. They were not afraid of a weak Russia, as they were counting on minimal damage for themselves. And here on you: new weapons systems, a new head of the Ministry of Defense, new ties to partners (PRC), counteraction to military adventures (SAR), an attempt to create regional alliances, support for the PRC in an attempt to create a new reserve currency, a transition to mutual engagement without a dollar. Well, who might like that !? So they blame the Russian Federation and the PRC for all grave problems.
  3. dimarm74
    dimarm74 7 February 2014 09: 59
    +2
    We want peace and only peace .... and nothing but peace. We love everyone around. Let them not worry, otherwise they already began to crap ...
  4. sinukvl
    sinukvl 7 February 2014 10: 06
    +10
    Since the West expresses concern, then we are doing everything right, keep it up!
    1. DZ_98_B
      DZ_98_B 7 February 2014 14: 52
      0
      I'm sorry, but this is the T 80 Omsk Tank Plant. Alas ,,, destroyed!
      1. Patton5
        Patton5 7 February 2014 22: 05
        +1
        You're wrong! this is t-90 UVZ!
  5. dimarm74
    dimarm74 7 February 2014 10: 22
    +6
    Only one nuance, if raw materials prices fall, there will be no money in the budget. Instead of keeping all the stashes in American government securities, the plants would be better built and science developed.
    1. fennekRUS
      fennekRUS 7 February 2014 11: 07
      +1
      Yes, they are afraid of real affairs .. there you can’t get off with demagogy. It will be necessary to plow, to solve problems not on paper. Start large-scale large-scale construction projects now, and with whom? To bring migrants again? Not an option. There are not enough specialists who have been humiliated and harassed as a class. It will be hard to lift. The shortage of personnel is now.
      1. dimarm74
        dimarm74 7 February 2014 11: 25
        -1
        Together, these tasks need to be addressed. There are no options. Specialists in trees will not grow. Of course they are afraid. It’s easier to cut loot from oil and gas. Yes, inflate bubbles such as nanotechnology and skolkovo.
    2. Hitrovan07
      Hitrovan07 7 February 2014 13: 18
      +2
      You are fixated on the "modern economy", which was paid for (created) by the enemies of Russia. We just don't have to walk through the minefield, but calmly take a step to the side.
    3. Shick
      Shick 7 February 2014 16: 50
      0
      the owners will not allow them to do this
  6. Ilja 22
    Ilja 22 7 February 2014 10: 36
    +3
    Simply put, the United States is afraid of an answer to its own tricks: being among equal in strength, America will be at a loss and turn on the reverse.

    Of course, they started to fuss, the thing smells like kerosene, retribution is inevitable, and for all the sins they committed, and continue to ... commit!
  7. Duke
    Duke 7 February 2014 10: 41
    +3
    Keep it up, it’s like we are slowly raising the fleet. The USA is sending 3 URO destroyers to Europe, which means they are nervous.
  8. Mestny
    Mestny 7 February 2014 10: 49
    +1
    Quote: dimarm74
    Instead of keeping all the stashes in American government securities, the plants would be better built and science developed.

    So this ... Re-equipment seems to mean the construction or at least the re-equipment of factories and the development of science?
    1. dimarm74
      dimarm74 7 February 2014 11: 37
      -1
      So after all, one defense industry will not stretch the country. You can see how much the defense tax complex gives to the budget. The share is low. Industrial production only in the defense industry probably remains. We do not really produce household appliances. Passenger cars. Civil engineering is almost absent. During the year, 36 civilian aircraft were released, already a joy, at least some progress. We are proud to have reached 303 helicopters per year. Of these, half are true for export. Those. to Russia, including an army of 150 aircraft per year? This is in our open spaces. I see no reason for pride here. 1500 helicopters per year, more or less.
    2. dimarm74
      dimarm74 7 February 2014 11: 39
      +1
      In fact, we do not produce machines and equipment. There is no industrial construction. We only store shopping centers, but at least thank God there are still residential buildings.
      1. Boa kaa
        Boa kaa 8 February 2014 01: 21
        +2
        Quote: dimarm74
        We do not produce machines and equipment. There is no industrial construction.

        "when the heart is heavy
        and cold in my chest "... to the site "Made with us"
        come in and see:
        - At the Irkutsk aircraft plant, the production of the first three MS-21 aircraft began;
        http://sdelanounas.ru/i/d/3/d/f_d3d3Lmlya3V0LmNvbS91cGxvYWQvaW5mb3JtYXRpb25fc3lz
        dGVtXzE1LzEvMi8xL2l0ZW1fMTIxMy9pbmZvcm1hdGlvbl9pdGVtc18xMjEzLmpwZz9fX2lkPTQ2ODA0
        . Jpeg
        - A plant for the production, assembly and repair of mining equipment was launched in Veliky Novgorod;
        http://sdelanounas.ru/i/d/3/d/f_d3d3LnNkZWxhbm91bmFzLnJ1L3VwbG9hZHMvNC8zLzQzNzEz
        OTE3ODUyMzVfb3JpZy5qcGVnP19faWQ9NDY4NzA=.jpeg
        - A plastic molding workshop was opened at the Izhevsk Automobile Plant;
        http://sdelanounas.ru/i/c/2/r/f_c2RlbGFub3VuYXMucnUvaS9jLzIvYzJSbGJHRnViM1Z1WVhN
        dWNuVXZkWEJzYjJGa2N5ODVMemN2T1RjMk1UTTFPVEV6TWpRMU1DNXFjR1ZuUDE5ZmFXUTlNamd3TnpJ
        PS5qcGc_X19pZD00NjgyMQ ==. Jpeg
        - Uralmashzavod has completed the supply of equipment for the innovative drilling rig "Arctic";

        - Perm TPP-9: launched a new power unit;
        - The Sukhodolsk plant of special heavy engineering has been opened in the Tula region. "And so on. Not all pro-salipolymers. The country lives, fights, builds, re-equips.
        Difficult? And who is easy now. We (I and my colleagues) will not get out of the fields, we will build the infrastructure to respond to US-ABM in Europe, and you say that nothing is being done. I DISAGREE!
        I would like more, all at once, but of the highest quality. But "there are no miracles in nature - they remained only in the church." IMHO.
  9. And Us Rat
    And Us Rat 7 February 2014 10: 54
    -8
    Israel, too, whose intentions to start a war with Iran are quite clear. So Tehran has to arm itself in order to create a counterbalance

    Poor, miserable, pink and fluffy peaceful Islamists, I want to pay respect crying
    For some reason, sometimes a desire wakes up to find a scribbler and drive his keyboard into his throat
    am
    1. Shick
      Shick 7 February 2014 16: 52
      +4
      peaceful Israel, fighting for a place in the sun, I'll pay you tender tenderness
      1. And Us Rat
        And Us Rat 7 February 2014 17: 53
        +1
        Quote: Shick
        peaceful Israel, fighting for a place in the sun, I'll pay you tender tenderness



        But this is generally funny - at 0:59 they start chanting - "death to kafirs, death to Russians" ... well, nothing, nothing, continue to protect them lol
    2. Patton5
      Patton5 7 February 2014 22: 09
      0
      What didn’t you like so much ???? The author of this phrase
      whose intentions to start a war with Iran quite clear
      as if hinting that Iran is not white and fluffy ........
    3. Spartan
      Spartan 8 February 2014 12: 47
      0
      Better play the violin! You will be alive! wink
  10. Starover_Z
    Starover_Z 7 February 2014 11: 01
    +3
    The collapse of the Soviet Army is normal, the obsolescence of military equipment is wonderful,
    updating military equipment of NATO countries, withdrawing from the ABM Treaty and installing missile defense systems - this is how it should be!

    Observers from the IHS international consulting company have noted that in recent months, after a four-year decline, global military spending has increased, with Russia and China increasing their military production most actively. NATO experts are already alarmed about this

    Oh no no no ! Let them stock up on diapers. And the fact that Russia is simply updating its fleet of equipment, it is "to the light bulb!"
    NATO sheep have become infected from the States with paranoia and megalomania!
  11. vorobey
    vorobey 7 February 2014 11: 22
    +3
    According to Anders Fogh Rasmussen, as a result of the arms race, Washington may lose its current influence and many players will appear on the international stage, "Who do not necessarily share our interests and values."

    Comrades, we are on the right track, as there are more and more Freud clauses for such responsible persons

    Who are the judges? - For the antiquity of the years
    To a free life their enmity is irreconcilable,
    Judges draw from forgotten newspapers
    Ochakovsky and the conquest of the Crimea;
    Always ready to fight,
    They sing the same song,
    Not noticing of myself:
    The older, the worse.
    Where, point us fathers fatherland
    Which ones should we take for samples?
    Are not these people robbery rich?

    And the Old Woman Europe is more and more like a Roman empire bursting at the seams, mired in all human sins. Naturally, there will be new players who do not agree with the proclaimed Values. And defending your values ​​is better and easier with a club in your hands rather than a kind word.
  12. Letterksi
    Letterksi 7 February 2014 11: 48
    +1
    I think that the main potential enemy for Russia is (as far as possible):

    1. Inside Russia
    2. In China
    3. In the West
    1. Shick
      Shick 7 February 2014 16: 54
      0
      most likely, the West does not ruin oil prices and allows the Russian Federation to increase armaments (qualitatively and quantitatively) to deter China's growing ambitions
  13. mihai_md2003
    mihai_md2003 7 February 2014 11: 48
    +1
    I really want to hope that this will not be a large part of the modernization of old designs. It seems to me much better to invest in the speedy refinement of the most modern weapons and to purchase them in bulk. And already from the remaining funds to upgrade the old equipment. Otherwise, we’ll spend the money and the equipment will remain old. Nevertheless, no modernization will make a 4th aircraft out of a 5th generation airplane and so on.
    1. Patton5
      Patton5 7 February 2014 22: 23
      +1
      All the same, no modernization will make a 4th airplane out of a 5th generation airplane and so on.
      Very controversial point!
      1. mihai_md2003
        mihai_md2003 8 February 2014 04: 23
        +2
        Look at PAK FA and su 27 and you will understand. And if you want more proof read about the filling, about the sensors in the wings, about the composite instead of aluminum.
  14. siberalt
    siberalt 7 February 2014 12: 59
    +2
    I think that the SGA "zadolbali" the whole world with their democracies brought in by missiles. How can you not arm yourself! They do their business on this too.
  15. trenkkvaz
    trenkkvaz 7 February 2014 13: 31
    +3
    All the same, I consider it wrong to evaluate the strength of the armies by the nominal defense expenditures. For example, we take one of our officers and one of the American. Formally, these are two equal combat units. But the costs of an American officer are several times more than ours. And what is the American more powerful about that? Or take the price of weapons. If you take a similar technique, then the Americans have a higher price.
    1. Firebox
      Firebox 7 February 2014 21: 51
      -1
      Well, yes, their soldier is better prepared, equipped, he has a machine gun with a laser sight in his hands, he flies on one of the most reliable helicopters in the world, floats on an aircraft carrier which the US enemies have not yet been able to sink. that's the whole point of defense spending
  16. fog
    fog 7 February 2014 15: 55
    +1
    That's all good that we buy planes, etc. But it seems to me, first of all, it is necessary to start with It-technologies, namely, that we in the military-industrial complex have our own OS, Cad / cam / cae programs of our own production
  17. theadenter
    theadenter 7 February 2014 16: 23
    +1
    I am glad that they do not forget about scientific research in Russia either.
    In 2013, a new telescope was installed in the Far East. And even an asteroid was discovered with its help.
  18. konvalval
    konvalval 7 February 2014 22: 18
    +3
    The US arms race is bad, and restoring the defense potential to the necessary level of Russia is good.
  19. voliador
    voliador 7 February 2014 22: 43
    0
    If our officials and generals stole less - in general it would be good.
    1. tilovaykrisa
      tilovaykrisa 7 February 2014 22: 47
      +1
      How to stop it? at 80, our boss stole Mom Do not Cry and rolled up checks, we go in circles, we need to break the system and change our motivation, otherwise the collapse of all reforms.
  20. polkovnik manuch
    polkovnik manuch 8 February 2014 00: 20
    +1
    There is no alternative to rearmament of the Army and Navy! ”Some of the greats said; “You don’t want to feed your army, you’ll feed someone else’s!” The most important thing is that EVERYONE understands this !!!
    1. Gvfrog
      Gvfrog 8 February 2014 00: 44
      0
      Right words! And I envy Russia for "white", but you also have problems and corruption. But there is at least some movement in our Ukraine, we have been kissing passionately with a fat polar fox for the last 20 years, and the events on the Maidan cannot be confirmed by anyone, how scary it is to see Georgia, Egypt, Syria on TV. It seems to be far away, but looked out the window and you understand ............ !!!!!!!
    2. sds555
      sds555 8 February 2014 04: 47
      0
      This is what Napoleon Bonaparte said:
      "A people unwilling to feed their own army will soon be forced to feed someone else's." hi
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