Military Review

Waiting for the Afghan threat

42



According to the forecasts of the American special services, after the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan, the carefully constructed US model of the Afghan state will collapse by the year 2017. Information about this leaked to the press in December last year, and the “leak” could have been deliberate. At the same time, not only in the United States are preparing for destabilization: Russia, as one of the most important players in Central Asia, is strengthening its position ahead of time and is awaiting the emergence of a serious threat from the south. We are increasing the volume of military cooperation with Kazakhstan and strengthening the CSTO: in the near future, this alliance may be useful.

Scenario ruin

So, the American project in Afghanistan failed miserably. The Afghan pseudo-army, a formally independent, but in fact, a structure dependent on NATO, is falling apart: tens of thousands of deserters take state-owned weapon and go partisan. It turns out to be a ridiculous situation, when the USA, trying to strengthen the “power” of the Afghan army and police, actually helps its enemies. Almost all weapons imported into Afghanistan fall into the hands of militants, even if they are intended for the military who are fighting them.

So far, the only deterrent is foreign troops: Hamid Karzai’s regime holds on only their bayonets. But as soon as the majority of the occupiers leave, the militants will launch a large-scale offensive campaign, using stolen American weapons. Armed forces and police without detachments will instantly collapse. And if we are guided by the forecasts of the US special services, then by 2017, the offensive of the Taliban and al-Qaeda will end with the complete elimination of the existing regime.

Peter Wall, commander of the British ground forces, estimates that this year the militants will occupy Helmand province, which is now under British control. And this despite the fact that part of the NATO forces will remain in Afghanistan! But if the ISAF command does not reach an agreement with Hamid Karzai and all the occupying forces have to be withdrawn, the collapse will come even faster, and by the end of this year the Taliban will take possession of not only Helmand, but also other provinces.

American experts emphasize that after the withdrawal of NATO troops, Karzai will need not only military but also financial assistance. Thus, the United States will have to "invest" huge sums in Afghanistan, despite the fact that these "investments" are very likely not to pay off. Trillions of dollars will be thrown to the wind.

Only small groups of local self-defense can restrain the radical Islamists in Afghanistan: Afghans are unlikely to cave in under the al-Qaeda. Most likely, after the defeat of Karzai, the Taliban will give her a fight: the foreign Islamists in the eyes of the Afghans look the same occupiers, like the NATO soldiers. Similar processes are taking place in Iraq, where Sunni self-defense units are fighting fundamentalists, and in Syria, where its former allies have rallied against the al Qaeda branch.

Our southern barrier

As you know, wood chopping - chips fly. The standoff between Karzai, the Taliban, al-Qaeda and small groups will not be limited to the territory of Afghanistan. Apparently, the war can also affect the neighboring states, first of all, the republics of Central Asia: the militants may well penetrate, for example, into Kyrgyzstan or Tajikistan. If this happens, the interests of Russia will be affected.

Fortunately, the Ministry of Defense is already taking actions aimed at strengthening the southern borders of the CIS. According to Anatoly Antonov, Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia, the country's leadership considers the borders of the CIS and the CSTO as common to all the states that make up these structures. In turn, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu insists on closer cooperation and mutual assistance of the armed forces of the CSTO members.

In recent years, Russia has begun to pay more attention to its southern partners, especially Kazakhstan. It is Kazakhstan, along with Russia, that is one of the main guarantors of peace and stability in the region.

Cooperation with Kazakhstan is facilitated by the fact that the republic already has the necessary military infrastructure, prepared during the times of the Soviet Union. Thus, in the territory of Kazakhstan there is the “Balkhash center” - a complex complex consisting of various technical structures and intended to control the sky and outer space. Unfortunately, during the 90-s many equipment was irretrievably lost, but the “Balkhash knot” has retained its combat capability and continues to be used to this day. The complex consists of anti-aircraft missile systems "Dnepr" and "Dniester", creating along the southern borders of the CIS a continuous radar barrier with a length of about 5 thousands of kilometers. However, Russia and Kazakhstan intend not only to reconstruct existing air defense and missile defense facilities, but also to deploy new systems in Central Asia, including C-300 systems.

In addition to monitoring the sky, there is a discussion of other aspects of interaction between the armed forces of Russia and Kazakhstan. The recent visit of Sergei Shoigu to Kazakhstan showed the readiness of the Kazakh side to further rapprochement with Russia in defense matters. During the visit, it was possible to agree on a development program for the Balkhash center, to work out plans for the unification of the Kazakh and Russian air defense systems, and also to take measures to improve the compatibility of the communication systems of the two states. In addition, Kazakhstan and Russia agreed to strengthen cooperation in the field of military education and resolved a number of issues related to the operation of military test sites located in Kazakhstan.

Thus, the Afghan groups will meet due resistance if they try to invade the territory of Central Asia. In response to the strengthening of the Taliban and Al-Qaida, Russia will respond by strengthening the southern borders of the CIS.

It is curious that the emergence of an Islamic threat in the south may be the reason for the better consolidation of the CSTO: realizing that it is impossible to survive in a single battle with the enemy, the republics will seek help from their comrades in misfortune. The pressure from the Afghan militants will eventually lead to the fact that the Central Asian republics will rally against a common enemy, with the support of Russia.

With this in mind, the current military policy of Moscow in Central Asia is reasonable. The preparation of military infrastructure is an important step towards the consolidation of the alliance with the Central Asian republics. Our military presence in the region will be a deterrent on the path of al-Qaida and other groups that are rich in Afghanistan: everyone in Central Asia understands that it is important to stop the fundamentalists as they cross the Afghan border, otherwise the consequences could be unpredictable.
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  1. Onizuka teacher
    Onizuka teacher 6 February 2014 06: 47
    +7
    Horror stories. I don’t understand why so to make an elephant out of a fly? In the yard is not the 90s, it’s not serious to scare a horse with a small doggie. But what kind of a Taliban is a threat if they only guerrilla in the mountains? And when was the last time the Taliban invaded the SA? Miracles.
    1. Beibit
      Beibit 6 February 2014 07: 10
      +2
      yes ... why do the Taliban, dushmans, call what you want to come here they lived there for so many years they have not come here, and now the Americans are leaving, and they will flood here. what have they lost here. they will not come ... unless they are paid to start another mess in Central Asia. that's all ...
      1. Pit
        Pit 6 February 2014 08: 02
        +8
        Quote: Teacher Onizuka
        And when was the last time the Taliban invaded the SA?

        Quote: Beibit
        why should the Taliban, dushmans, call what you want to come here they lived there for so many years they have not come here, and now the Americans are leaving, and they will flood here.

        The Taliban will not go. They will most likely hang Karzai and begin to put Afghanistan in order again.
        Most likely, after the defeat, Karzai, the Taliban will give her a fight: the foreign Islamists in the eyes of the Afghans look like the same invaders

        But the mercenaries, who are now fighting in Afghanistan, may well poke themselves, because there will simply be no way out. Or die in Afghanistan at the hands of the Taliban, or try your luck in neighboring territories.
        1. Lk17619
          Lk17619 6 February 2014 12: 10
          +6
          Quote: Pit
          They will most likely hang Karzai and begin to tidy up Afghanistan again

          In-in, although Afghanistan will begin to produce less drugs. The Soviets fought against this, then the Taliban, and here the Americans are for you, and immediately the flow increased.
          1. Vovka levka
            Vovka levka 6 February 2014 12: 18
            +4
            Quote: Lk17619

            In-in, although Afghanistan will begin to produce less drugs. The Soviets fought against this, then the Taliban, and here the Americans are for you, and immediately the flow increased.

            The Taliban at first fought, but it is necessary to live. And they began to grow intensively, only with the slogan that this is for infidels. So do not flatter yourself.
            1. Pit
              Pit 6 February 2014 13: 27
              +6
              Quote: Vovka Levka
              So make no mistake.

              They began to grow it because the Americans blocked all the oxygen for them with their sanctions, and the so-called slogan "for the infidels", most likely the Americans themselves thought of blaming the Afghans that they are bad, they are growing rubbish, and we are white and fluffy. And we export this rubbish, purely for scientific purposes and destruction. In Afghanistan, the largest drug producer is the NATO troops and the State Department, the customer is a customer, and ordinary Afghans are just freely hired workers. There will be no main customer and production will collapse.
              1. Vovka levka
                Vovka levka 6 February 2014 14: 50
                +2
                Quote: Pit
                There will be no main customer and production will collapse.

                And where will he go?
      2. tilovaykrisa
        tilovaykrisa 6 February 2014 12: 06
        0
        The fact is that they will just be paid and they will not wish green paper.
        1. alone
          alone 6 February 2014 21: 03
          0
          According to the forecasts of the American special services, after the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan, the model of the Afghan state carefully built by the States will collapse by 2017.


          Everything can be. It may be that this state model will collapse much earlier than 2017.
    2. ekzorsist
      ekzorsist 7 February 2014 20: 28
      +1
      Quote: Onizuka's teacher
      Horror stories. I don’t understand why so to make an elephant out of a fly? In the yard is not the 90s, it’s not serious to scare a horse with a small doggie. But what kind of a Taliban is a threat if they only guerrilla in the mountains? And when was the last time the Taliban invaded the SA? Miracles.

      Well hat-making is purely in Kazakhstan.
      "Don't say gop until you've jumped ...". But there is a decent number of people "moved" to Islam, but do not hope - they do not consider Kazakhs to be Muslims. And it's hard to negotiate with them. Pay off ... unlikely ... although the family nana if something dumps quickly ... and the rest will have to slurp.
  2. samoletil18
    samoletil18 6 February 2014 07: 40
    +8
    What are the southern borders? The Islamists are already in Russia. And there are many of them. Wahhabis walk around large cities without hesitation. Every Muslim holiday in Moscow is an ordinary show of strength. The "fifth column" inside Russia is more dangerous than the Taliban in Afghanistan.
    1. Vovka levka
      Vovka levka 6 February 2014 12: 20
      +3
      Ask yourself how many Muslims lived in Russia such as 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2014 in percentage terms and get an answer.
  3. Humpty
    Humpty 6 February 2014 08: 03
    +3
    Interestingly, the author knows that Kyrgyzstan, for example, does not have common borders with Afghanistan and the penetration of gangs from Afghanistan is possible only with their cooperation with the Tajik ban ... authorities, as has already been done twice.
    1. pawel57
      pawel57 6 February 2014 19: 45
      0
      You are mistaken.
      1. alone
        alone 6 February 2014 21: 05
        +1
        Quote: pawel57
        You are mistaken.


        What is he wrong with? Kyrgyzstan does not border with Afghanistan. Alexander is right about this. And militants can only enter through Tajikistan.
  4. VadimSt
    VadimSt 6 February 2014 08: 14
    +1
    The forecasts and aspirations of the "local spirit" and the "American specialist" may not just not coincide, but be opposite!
    1. Firstvanguard
      Firstvanguard 9 February 2014 15: 19
      0
      Maybe, maybe .. or maybe
      So, the American project in Afghanistan failed miserably.

      It may just come to a triumphal end, the declared and real goals and objectives of the United States are usually diametrically opposite. soldier
  5. Nayhas
    Nayhas 6 February 2014 08: 47
    +2
    But as soon as most of the invaders leave, the militants will launch a large-scale offensive campaign, using the stolen American weapons for this. Armed forces and police without detachments will instantly fall apart. And if you are guided by the forecasts of the US special services, then by 2017 the offensive of the Taliban and Al Qaeda will end with the complete elimination of the existing regime.

    Pretty categorical and superficial. There are probably no people in the world who are fully versed in what is happening in Afghanistan. It must be remembered that Afghanistan is primarily a tribe, each tribe has its own leader / leader / bigbasket ... The fact that the Americans attach all their opponents to al-Qaida or the Taliban is understandable, it is easier for the average person to see that the war is against a specific enemy, but in fact, far from all opponents of the United States and its allies are related to these organizations. Moreover, I’m trying to assert that the share of militants of the Taliban and al Qaeda is not large. Perhaps some tribes entered into an alliance with them and receive weapons from them, but no more. When the Americans and the Allies dump, what happened after the departure of the USSR will begin. The war of all against all or war for the sake of war.
    Here we need to remember why the Taliban came to power in general. There was a long civil war in which there was no winner. Hekmatyar, Dostum, Massoud divided the country by rallying various tribes. Moreover, some tribes regularly changed sides. The Taliban received the support of the population, which is just zae .. tired of endless showdowns. Now there are no prerequisites for their coming to power. If there is a jumble again, then maybe ...
  6. UzRus
    UzRus 6 February 2014 09: 35
    +1
    The complex includes SPRN Dnepr and Dniester - There is also a polygon version of the A-135 system - the Don-2NP radar and silos for high-speed missiles 53T6.
    1. Arhj
      Arhj 6 February 2014 12: 14
      +8
      So, on the territory of Kazakhstan is the “Balkhash Knot” - a complex complex consisting of various technical structures and designed to control the sky and outer space.

      Honestly, I didn’t understand how the air defense systems can help us fight the Afghan extremists who fight exclusively as infantry.
      1. Lk17619
        Lk17619 6 February 2014 12: 23
        +4
        Quote: Arhj
        Honestly, I didn’t understand how the air defense systems can help us fight the Afghan extremists who fight exclusively as infantry.

        Yeah, neighing a little too laughing
  7. lukke
    lukke 6 February 2014 09: 44
    0
    Islamist foreigners in the eyes of the Afghans look like the same occupiers as NATO troops.
    well, if that is so - then not everything is so bad. With the Taliban, narcotics declined. In general, it’s time to do something with the Saudis - they can’t sit still with free resources in their region. How a cancerous tumor devours healthy cells ...
  8. Turkestan
    Turkestan 6 February 2014 09: 44
    +1
    The article is extremely superficial. The southern borders of the Central Asian republics are practically not covered. If we ASSUME that a plan to destabilize the former Republics of the USSR is in force today and opponents of Russia use the tactics of COLOR REVOLUTIONS, then the central part of the Russian regions becomes EXTREMELY vulnerable. From here they can start tearing Russia to pieces
  9. Internal combustion engine
    Internal combustion engine 6 February 2014 10: 07
    +1
    Until now, the current government condemns the Soviets for their war in Afghanistan. Well, and now does it not become clear why the Soviets went to send troops to this country. Then there were no buffer Central Asians, then everyone was their Soviet people and the war had to be moved away from the borders of the USSR. Americans in their ten years in Afghanistan have created a powerful army of militants. Armed her, trained and even given combat experience. When they leave, the Taliban armies will invade Central Asia, they will crush and scatter Tajiks with Kazakhs and will come to us in Siberia. It would be good if Iran or China set the first goal for them, but there they will be given immediately on the head, and in Central Asia they will frolic until they lose their pulse.
    1. Bene valete
      Bene valete 6 February 2014 10: 45
      +1
      You're right! Afghans have been robbers for almost 30 years now. The usual way of their life has long been forgotten. And of course, this colossus of thugs will trample for money anywhere. And with a greater likelihood, some of the Central Asian nukers will gladly join them, but wherever they go ... then don’t go to the grandmother and so clearly ...!
    2. Firebox
      Firebox 7 February 2014 21: 08
      -1
      what nonsense are you writing
      Kazakhs and Kyrgyzs will be crushed to Siberia ... okay, Kyrgyzstan is a weak and small country
      but I live in Kazakhstan, our army is not so weak and the equipment will be newer than your RUSSIA, we have steppes and they are fighting for their independence in the mountains
      For 1000 years they haven’t attacked anyone, they just sat in their mountains and then BAM! why not go to the steppe?
      these are just the tales of the Russian government and this site so that everyone would reach for protection from Russia from the threat of which there is no
      1. Cossack23
        Cossack23 8 February 2014 08: 13
        0
        I completely agree with you - the maximum that mountaineers in the steppe can wage local wars with the local population and no more without relevant experience.
  10. oscar
    oscar 6 February 2014 10: 58
    0
    It turns out an absurd situation when the United States, trying to strengthen the "power" of the Afghan army and police, actually helps its enemies.

    Aaaleluya! Nothing more to add ...
  11. tolyasik0577
    tolyasik0577 6 February 2014 11: 19
    0
    until 2017? Even they gave too much time. the Taliban will bear the brain for everyone next year.
  12. marshes
    marshes 6 February 2014 12: 42
    +2
    Meanwhile, General Dostum had recently traveled to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
    1. lukke
      lukke 6 February 2014 12: 55
      +1
      Meanwhile, General Dostum had recently traveled to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
      Ah, Ahmad Shah Masud would still be alive - Karzai from the Yankees would be more fun and we would be calmer ...
      1. marshes
        marshes 6 February 2014 13: 02
        +1
        Quote: lukke
        Ah, Ahmad Shah Masoud would still be alive -

        He also came, the sister's family at one time lived in Kazakhstan.
        And they say about Dostum that he probed the soil if Karzai is to be displaced.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  13. Ilja 22
    Ilja 22 6 February 2014 13: 02
    0
    on the main ph cool) basmachi damn it!)
  14. Hug
    Hug 6 February 2014 13: 45
    +1
    .... However, Russia and Kazakhstan intend not only to reconstruct existing air defense and missile defense facilities, but also to deploy new systems in Central Asia, including S-300 air defense systems.


    What for? Do Taliban have powerful air forces?
  15. parus2nik
    parus2nik 6 February 2014 14: 17
    0
    According to the forecasts of the American special services, after the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan, the carefully constructed model of the Afghan state by the States will collapse by 2017 .... We must pay tribute. They correctly predict ..
  16. Marconi41
    Marconi41 6 February 2014 14: 49
    0
    Quote: Kram
    .... However, Russia and Kazakhstan intend not only to reconstruct existing air defense and missile defense facilities, but also to deploy new systems in Central Asia, including S-300 air defense systems.


    What for? Do Taliban have powerful air forces?


    doesn't the Afghan army have an air force? and who will own all our GXNUMXs / and not only / after the fall of the current regime?
  17. brr1
    brr1 6 February 2014 16: 00
    +5
    Our problem is that we will fight them again according to the rules imposed from the outside. Non-standard and cruel steps are needed. In particular, as an option: the disposal of weapons of mass destruction in the tribal zone (or near Riyadh). Each so-called warrior of Allah should be aware that while he is committing jihad in a foreign territory, his loved ones are bent from various obscure diseases. And the change will not sprout, and will multiply less. In short, drown in a dysentery litter all that is dear to them. Or is it cruel?
    1. TS3sta3
      TS3sta3 6 February 2014 16: 28
      0
      you have to beat it in the head ... and with the wrong hands.
  18. wanderer_032
    wanderer_032 6 February 2014 17: 22
    +1
    So, the American project in Afghanistan failed miserably. The Afghan pseudo-army - formally independent, but actually a NATO-dependent structure - is falling apart: tens of thousands of deserters take state-owned weapons and leave for partisans. It turns out an absurd situation when the United States, trying to strengthen the "power" of the Afghan army and police, actually helps its enemies. Almost all weapons imported into Afghanistan fall into the hands of militants, even if they are intended for the military who are fighting them.

    So far, the only limiting factor is foreign troops: only their bayonets hold the regime of Hamid Karzai. But as soon as most of the invaders leave, the militants will launch a large-scale offensive campaign, using the stolen American weapons for this. Armed forces and police without detachments will instantly fall apart.

    Everything is the same thing that happened during the times when there were Soviet units in Afghanistan.
    Specific "spiritual" princelings operate according to the same scheme.
    In general, this whole merry-go-round is already tired. I think that if the world community would like to put things in order there, then it would already have done so.
    But everyone in Afghanistan is still tempted by the fact that with the hands of the "bearded" and with the help of Afghan heroin, one can shit in big politics to one's "partners". And also along the way to cash in on the trade "gerychem".
    And the order could be put in place recognizing Afghanistan as a rogue country (for the manufacture and distribution of drugs all over the world) and imposing a trade embargo on the import of any weapons and ammunition, metal, wood (building), fuel and other resources that may be used for military purposes, as well as banning the training of Afghans in modern military affairs and generally receive any kind of education outside their country.
    If in inter-tribal disassembly slingshots at each other would be ridiculed.
    All Afghans should be sent from everywhere, back to their country and let them live there in their historical homeland.
    And if a calm life in the mountains is not nice for them and they trample on war, then meet them well so that they will be remembered for a long time and no longer mediated.
    1. GREAT RUSSIA
      GREAT RUSSIA 6 February 2014 17: 58
      0
      Quote: wanderer_032
      And the order could be put in place recognizing Afghanistan as a rogue country (for the manufacture and distribution of drugs all over the world) and imposing a trade embargo on the import of any weapons and ammunition, metal, wood (building),
    2. GREAT RUSSIA
      GREAT RUSSIA 6 February 2014 18: 40
      0
      Quote: wanderer_032
      And the order could be put in place recognizing Afghanistan as a rogue country (for the manufacture and distribution of drugs all over the world) and imposing a trade embargo on the import of any weapons and ammunition, metal, wood (building), fuel and other resources that may be used for military purposes, as well as banning the training of Afghans in modern military affairs and generally receive any kind of education outside their country.
      If in inter-tribal disassembly slingshots at each other would be ridiculed.
      All Afghans should be sent from everywhere, back to their country and let them live there in their historical homeland.
      And if a calm life in the mountains is not nice for them and they trample on war, then meet them well so that they will be remembered for a long time and no longer mediated.

      And after these measures, you would be able to sit and calmly watch how thousands of peaceful Afghans would starve to death, lack of food, and because of their low salary they didn’t have enough money and a loaf of bread, these are direct genocide against the Afghan people. there is a limited contingent, the main role should be played by the Airborne Forces and aviation. Change the current regime. Send successful Afghan students to Russian universities, where they will become highly qualified specialists. Thus, as soon as they return back to their homeland, they should take leadership positions. conduct psychological and physical selection among the officers of the Afghan army, then send them to Russian officer schools, where they will be trained by leading military specialists, after which they will return and take up leadership positions in the Afghan army. Investments should be sent to the economy of Afghanistan and only 30% of these money to the army. At the same time, it is necessary to create economic zones that will be protected at the highest level .
      After all these actions, after a few years there should be the following: A strong military special forces of Afghanistan, a small but highly qualified, professional, mobile and modern weapons Afghan army, small, but also mobile, well trained, professional internal forces consisting of modern weapons, independent an economy with a good income. After that, there should be at least one university in Afghanistan, one higher officer school, one higher economic school, in all these institutions Russian specialists should be trained at the beginning, gradually their specialists should appear there, and then begin the gradual withdrawal of troops .
    3. siberalt
      siberalt 6 February 2014 22: 09
      +2
      In Afghanistan, any external dictatorship fails miserably. Give - take, do not give - do not blame.
    4. The comment was deleted.
  19. GREAT RUSSIA
    GREAT RUSSIA 6 February 2014 17: 40
    0
    Trillions of dollars
    Trillions? Well, it's overkill! US income is 15 trillion, Russia’s income is 3 trillion dollars. You have to be more careful in fantasies.
    It should also be understood that as soon as the militants enter Central Asia on a large scale, only the entry of troops will save the situation.
    The militants are well armed, equipped and trained. Thus, even the armies of the Central Asian republics will have to start a real war! And if you understand that the militants will be armed with American weapons, air defense (grenade launchers, anti-tank grenade launchers), then even the tanks of the Central Asian armies will have to face a serious enemy, helicopters will be greeted with grenade launchers. And if we take into account the experience of the war of the Red Army in Afghanistan, then it should be understood: the enemy has excellent command of the tactics of warfare in mountainous conditions. This will be the "third Afghanistan." Here, Russia will not be able to do without military intervention, most likely in military operations it will be necessary to use all types of air support (guided missiles, fighter aircraft with shells). In military operations, you will most likely have to use the Airborne Forces, which is what can happen if the militants invade Central Asia.
  20. Free Island
    Free Island 6 February 2014 17: 44
    0
    I somehow don’t understand anything .... I’ve arranged a family of Zherai Bushevy’s revision at their own plantations in Afghanistan ... well, they guarded their plantations there ..... prepared new drug couriers, Mudaheds, corrected drug trafficking ... why are they leaving home? crop control no longer needed?
    1. GREAT RUSSIA
      GREAT RUSSIA 6 February 2014 18: 05
      0
      Quote: Free Island
      I somehow don’t understand anything .... I’ve arranged a family of Zherai Bushevy’s revision at their own plantations in Afghanistan ... well, they guarded their plantations there ..... prepared new drug couriers, Mudaheds, corrected drug trafficking ... why are they leaving home? crop control no longer needed?

      Apparently, they got so much stoned that they began to like the South American "weed" more.
  21. buzer
    buzer 6 February 2014 18: 13
    +1
    What nafig the Taliban in Kazakhstan ??? And here is the S-300 and the remnants of the Soviet missile defense system in Kazakhstan ??? The author at least looked at a geographical map before the article began to write ??? Even if, hypothetically, the Taliban break into the steppes of Kazakhstan, and here is the air defense ??? And the Americans will never leave Afghanistan, if they wanted to leave, they would have left long ago. And Karzai understands this very well ...
  22. Leshka
    Leshka 6 February 2014 18: 34
    0
    will see
  23. Stinger
    Stinger 6 February 2014 19: 47
    0
    According to the forecasts of the American special services, after the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan, the model of the Afghan state carefully built by the States will collapse by 2017. Information about this leaked to the press in December last year, and the “leak” could be deliberate.

    What is the leak? First, let the legs take away without loss. Afghans are illiterate, so they don’t read forecasts, but they still haven’t allowed anyone to impose orders from outside. And six months after the withdrawal of powerful coalition forces, everything will return to square one. Even a platoon of Estonians will not help.
  24. pawel57
    pawel57 6 February 2014 20: 06
    +1
    All these screams about Afghanistan. the threat is far-fetched. They are distributed by NATO members to pull the Russian Federation into Afghanistan. adventure, Central Asian republics for squeezing Russian money and protecting the so-called elites from the impoverished population, distracting the citizens of the Russian Federation from true threats, from eroding the criminal activity of NATO in the territory of Afghanistan., shift the responsibility for organizing the production and marketing of drugs to the shoulders of the peoples of Afghanistan. and interested Russian officials as a field of activity for theft. From the history of the Anglo-Saxons organized the production of drugs in China (Opium Wars), Vietnam. Now in these countries + Iran is fired for drugs. Under Babrak, the Hadots traders put drugs against the wall for drugs, I saw with my own eyes. In the drug trade, everyone is involved in parts related to them: Americans, Afghans, Central Asian republics, and our bureaucrats with the police in addition. Each has its own gesheft. All this is in our media. In Afghanistan there will be a struggle for many years probably. The Central Asian republics will not allow Pashtuns to rule their countries. Islamization Avg. Asia is inevitable since the current rulers could not make life easier for the people. We need to restore order in our home and abroad to support our friends and punish our enemies with their hands. Of course, if there is a collapse of the state, then of course the drug dealers are to blame for the Afghans.
  25. Aydar
    Aydar 6 February 2014 20: 09
    0
    Who is celebrating a coward? still the enemies haven’t come and the pants are wet huh?
  26. siberalt
    siberalt 6 February 2014 22: 06
    +1
    Teacher Onizuka.
    Quote: "Horror stories"

    Judging by the title of the article, they are the most. Well, someone really doesn’t want to restore the former ties of Afghanistan with its northern neighbors. Can someone find in the story of the intervention of the Afghans? Where did they go to fight and what to conquer. Wars there began from the time of the British metropolis. Nobody conquered them. As for drugs, as the British (the creators of free America) did again, as they did in China during the time of their naval empire. Now there are weapons in pairs for a brother. Let them understand. And they will end the drug themselves.

    1. pawel57
      pawel57 7 February 2014 11: 47
      +1
      Not certainly in that way. conquered and Islamized India, 200 years have been in possession of Iran.
  27. commbatant
    commbatant 6 February 2014 23: 17
    -1
    I think it’s time in Central Asia (as well as in the Soviet Caucasus, as well as Transdniestria) to create the Foreign Legion (General Lebed also spoke about it), Russia will kill two birds with one stone and there will be fewer guest workers in Russia and there will be no need to distract its forces, it’s just to choose the proportion need Russian to the rest ...
  28. shelva
    shelva 7 February 2014 03: 40
    0
    The Americans have crumpled themselves and are now trying to intimidate the "northern neighbors" with the impending invasion of stoned hicks from Afghanistan, which they have not conquered.
  29. ddd1975
    ddd1975 7 February 2014 05: 05
    0
    Maybe the deliveries will end ...
    1. Sergey7311
      Sergey7311 7 February 2014 05: 17
      0
      This is really a real threat, not the Taliban ...
  30. beifall
    beifall 8 February 2014 06: 54
    0
    Central Asian countries very poorly perceive the withdrawal of Western troops

    All countries of the region have repeatedly expressed their concern about the situation after the coalition left Afghanistan. For example, the President of Uzbekistan on December 7, 2012 called on the world community to create a contact group under the auspices of the UN to solve problems that, in his opinion, would certainly arise after the withdrawal of troops. The Kyrgyz government also stated that all threats to their country's security come from Afghanistan, and the withdrawal of troops will inevitably lead to chaos. Tajikistan, which has a long border with Afghanistan, also often expresses its fears about what awaits it after 2014. Even Kazakhstan, which does not border Afghanistan, shares common fears. Only Turkmenistan, the only state in Central Asia that maintained constant relations with the Taliban until they fell in 2001, does not show much concern.

    This concern, although justified, is greatly exaggerated, and the Central Asian governments use the pseudo-threat from Afghanistan for their own purposes
  31. old rats
    old rats 8 February 2014 12: 12
    0
    Quote: Vovka Levka
    Quote: Pit
    There will be no main customer and production will collapse.

    And where will he go?


    there is only one way an effective way to combat drug trafficking is to reduce the number of consumers and complicate their lives in all possible ways.
    all the rest is the struggle with distributors, carriers, manufacturers, to load water with a pitchfork.