A statement by senators and developments in Ukraine for KM.RU was commented by Konstantin Nikolaevich Sokolov, vice-president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems.
External impact on Ukraine goes on all lines
The statement of the Federation Council is completely objective, and it reflects the essence of the situation. But the situation in Ukraine has already moved into an acute phase, and power has been destabilized. Therefore, the question arises: how timely was this announcement? Maybe it's about saving face? For many years, the West has been working to detach Ukraine from Russia, investing huge amounts of money in the creation of various non-governmental organizations, non-profit foundations and so on. And on the part of Russia there was a policy of exorbitant gas prices, which destroyed the economy of Ukraine.
There is a completely clear technology of influence on a contiguous state, but for many years we have not done what gives a powerful resource of influence on the public opinion of a neighbor. In short, the statement of the Council of the Federation is correct, but belated. At the same time, representatives of the State Department of the United States, the European Union, Poland appear in Ukraine ... But whoever does not interfere in the internal affairs of this country, everyone is piling up! The Catholic Church is active.
Pay attention: The Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church brought students of their religious schools to Maidan. I saw this information on the Internet, and besides, I just returned from a meeting of the Izborsk club in Bryansk, where they spoke about the same thing. I note that Ukrainian Vladyka Vladimir, who is nourishing the Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate, says that it is not necessary to politicize faith.
External influence on Ukraine goes on all lines: psychology, economics, politics and diplomacy. The operation is most powerful, and I will repeat the thesis of Brzezinski, who has already become an aphorism: Russia without Ukraine will never be an empire. That is, we can rise from our knees only together, and now everything is being done to break this bond forever. But I hope it does not work out.
Clash of interests can turn into civil confrontation
What are the future prospects for the development of the situation? The dire state of the economy of Ukraine, the terrible social situation require very large-scale investments to get out of this impasse. Some time ago, the former Prime Minister of Ukraine, Mykola Azarov, mentioned a specific number of necessary investments to save the economy. This is 160 billion euros!
The amount is fantastic, and the European Union will not give such money, it is in crisis itself. But Russia will not make such significant investments. This means that the severity of the crisis will fall so heavily on the population that the question will arise about who will be beyond the survival line. That is, the question now is not what kind of hardware changes will occur in the leadership of Ukraine, and not even what the political structure of this country will be. There is a great danger of civil war: this is real given the balance of power that takes place in the regions of Ukraine.
Clash of interests can turn into civil confrontation. Naturally, the confrontation will spread to Russia, where the flow of refugees will rush in case of an acute situation. But volunteers can also come from Russia to protect relatives and friends if it comes to the force phase. That is the real danger.