Military Review

The ruble significantly subsided. Advantages and disadvantages

9
The ruble significantly subsided. Advantages and disadvantagesThe ruble exchange rate continues to decline against world reserve currencies - the dollar and the euro. Today history with the ruble exchange rate can be called using Lenin's quote: a step forward, two steps back. The ruble falls by more than 40-50 kopecks, after which it wins 10-15 kopecks for a couple of days. In connection with the fall of the ruble, many entrepreneurs are thinking about what this will ultimately lead them to - to profit or to losses.
Tax structures of regional and federal significance - 46 Tax and many others continue to call on Russian citizens for a transparent approach to paying taxes. To do this, should not interfere with any jumps in exchange rates.
For the first time in history, the 29 of January reached the mark exceeding the 48 rubles per 1 euro unit. On the same day, for the first time in a long time, the dollar exceeded the psychological mark in 35 rubles. By the end of the day, both foreign currencies lost ground somewhat, but experts believe that by the end of the week, the ruble may fall below 48 rubles and 35 rubles per euro and dollar, respectively.
Independent economists believe that the fall of the ruble is speculative, and that in fact the loss of 8-10% per month has nothing to do with reality in terms of the ratio of exchange rates. A significant contribution to the fall of the ruble is made by those traders who fear that monetary stimulation of the Russian economy will be significantly curtailed.
Is it worth seeing in the fall of the Russian currency only negative, or are there any positive sides to this? Positive can manifest itself in terms of increasing the competitiveness of Russian products in the domestic and foreign markets. In foreign markets, Russian products may receive additional buyers in the event that barriers to the distribution of Russian goods are not introduced through the WTO (for example, Russian grains and other agricultural products).
On the other hand, the depreciation of the ruble may lead to an increase in prices in Russian stores, since today the share of imports in Russia is very large.
What is more - pluses or minuses in a significant fall in the ruble? It all depends on what measures the Russian government, its economic bloc, will take to benefit from the current situation.
9 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. Gluxar_
    Gluxar_ 30 January 2014 12: 30
    +2
    It's no secret that the Russian economy is under enormous external pressure. Economic growth in 2013 slowed down to 2%. This is mainly due to the outflow of capital, and the mass outflow of speculative capital in particular.
    Unrestrained financial stimulation of the USA gives its results, the economy begins to show the beginnings of growth. There money run away. Of course, geopolitics and the position of the Russian Federation on the international scene are also affecting.
    Is this good or bad ? Within the state, this is certainly good. Our economy is becoming more competitive, and this has a positive effect on unemployment. On the other hand, prices for imported goods may increase for the population. And here the main question is raised. Any changes can always have both positive and negative consequences. And which will largely depend on the people themselves.
    I have always advocated and continue to advocate the development of domestic production, moreover, all types of goods. I believe that our country is capable and should produce EVERYTHING in general, including bananas. However, you need to approach this pragmatically and not grab onto everything at once. First, to strengthen our positions in those industries where we already have advantages, and then to invest in "atypical production".

    How to use the depreciation of the ruble to the advantage of our country? First of all, you need to buy truly Russian goods. And besides, you need to make sure that traders do not raise prices for all goods under the general noise. This is a very important question, because for the "hucksters" the domestic economy does not matter. If you see overpricing, do not forget to tell the seller "verbally". Trust me, it makes sense too. And secondly, write to the Federal Antimonopoly Service or to "consumer protection" sites. It's quite dreary, but if you don't, then everything will only get worse. You need to constantly fight for your rights.
    In the matter of medicines, find just generic drugs made in Russia.
    In the same way in many other positions, only a reasonable and considered position of the whole society will enable this society to develop safely.
    1. Sid.74
      Sid.74 30 January 2014 12: 44
      0
      I have a few questions for people who know, can it be that in this way we want to make the Olympiad guests leave a little more money in Sochi?

      Could it be that our people want to level the costs of difficult-to-get raw materials for oil and gas production facilities on the shelf, namely the laying of new icebreakers and platforms for offshore production?

      And can the latter be a preparation for the collapse of the US financial system in the fall or this summer? hi
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. atalef
        atalef 30 January 2014 15: 00
        0
        Quote: Sid.74
        I have a few questions for people who know, can it be that in this way we want to make the Olympiad guests leave a little more money in Sochi?

        In general, prices in dollars remain the same, in rubles more expensive. I think you understand that foreigners are paid in rubles
        Quote: Sid.74
        Could it be that our people want to level the costs of difficult-to-get raw materials for oil and gas production facilities on the shelf, namely the laying of new icebreakers and platforms for offshore production?

        Of course . one of the tasks is to find a larger count in rubles, everything is very simple
        According to the minister, the proposed measure would help fill the state treasury: a weakening of 1 ruble could give the federal budget about 190 billion rubles of additional income. This statement came about when the idea of ​​weakening the ruble to stimulate a slowing Russian economy was actively discussed in government and expert communities. And such rhetoric of the Minister of Finance was taken more than seriously.

        Quote: Sid.74
        And can the latter be a preparation for the collapse of the US financial system in the fall or this summer?

        belay
        1. Sid.74
          Sid.74 30 January 2014 17: 00
          0
          Quote: atalef
          In general, prices in dollars remain the same, in rubles more expensive. I think you understand that foreigners are paid in rubles

          Salaries can also be received in rubles, but contracts can be spelled out in dollars! I assumed such a thing!
          A sort of advertising in which a tourist hoping for European prices and a good exchange rate, euro-ruble, dollar-ruble, comes and falls into the sphere with inflated prices for services!
      3. Gluxar_
        Gluxar_ 30 January 2014 19: 12
        +1
        Quote: Sid.74
        Could it be that ours thus want to force the guests of the Olympiad to leave a little more money in Sochi?

        No. For tourists, this will make Sochi prices denominated in rubles only cheaper, and impressions of Russia only better.

        Quote: Sid.74
        Could it be that our people want to level the costs of difficult-to-get raw materials for oil and gas production facilities on the shelf, namely the laying of new icebreakers and platforms for offshore production?

        No. But this will increase the income of mining companies that sell for foreign currency and spend in rubles.

        Quote: Sid.74
        And can the latter be a preparation for the collapse of the US financial system in the fall or this summer?

        Also no. The preparation for the collapse of the US financial system may be "squandering" our reserve bank. When Russia lends to its partners, dumping the accumulated Treasury for this.
        1. Sid.74
          Sid.74 30 January 2014 21: 15
          0
          Thanks for answers!
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. atalef
      atalef 30 January 2014 12: 51
      +4
      Quote: Gluxar_
      This is mainly due to the outflow of capital, while the massive outflow of speculative capital.

      what speculative capital? The share of investments in Russia's GDP is just a pity.

      Quote: Gluxar_
      Unrestrained financial stimulation of the USA is yielding results, the economy is starting to show the beginnings of growth. There money run away.

      Now, of course, they are investing in America, but again - back to our sheep. The share of investments and foreign capital in Russia is scanty. The problem is the lack of production, and the outflow that is connected only with the fact that the Russian economy is not growing. You rearranged the primary and secondary. Money goes - because nothing can be earned from them in Russia. there are more attractive markets. There is nothing personal and no Russian community. I have invested money in Gazprom in 2011-12, gave good dividends. Since 2013 (mid) - not profitable, small dividends. And even though I don’t have millions (even not even tens of thousands). but nevertheless, out of many thousands of investors like me, the market is emerging.
      Quote: Gluxar_
      Within the state, this is certainly good. Our economy is becoming more competitive, and this has a positive effect on unemployment.

      It does not become more competitive. You forget that almost 87% of the Russian Federation - the export of raw materials - which are sold at spot prices or fixed contracts (in dollars or euros). The final production is very small and will not play a role
      The only one who benefits from this is the budget - it automatically has more rubles due to the sale of currency from tax profit
      Quote: Gluxar_
      I have always advocated and advocate the development of domestic production, moreover, any kind of goods

      To speak a little. it must be profitable to do

      Quote: Gluxar_
      How to use the depreciation of the ruble to the benefit of our country?

      With benefit for the country - it already brings grandmas to the budget
      For citizens - the question, because everything will rise in price
      1. Gluxar_
        Gluxar_ 30 January 2014 19: 28
        0
        Quote: atalef
        what speculative capital? The share of investments in Russia's GDP is just a pity.

        In GDP, of course, minuscule, because our stock market is not as developed as in the West. But to maintain the balance of trade and to ensure international trade, currency is used. Today, when capital flees from emerging markets and goes to the United States, they do not go out in rubles, but in foreign currency. As a result, by selling their blocks of "shares", foreign investors buy dollars on them in the domestic market of Russia and bring them to the West, as a result this creates a certain deficit of foreign currency and the ruble exchange rate sags.
        The Central Bank has not yet responded to this, possibly because such a depreciation of the national currency has been conceived by the authorities to compensate for some of the sharp corners of the WTO.

        Quote: atalef
        Now, of course, they are investing in America, but again - back to our sheep. The share of investments and foreign capital in Russia is scanty. The problem is the lack of production, and the outflow that is connected only with the fact that the Russian economy is not growing. You rearranged the primary and secondary. Money goes - because nothing can be earned from them in Russia. there are more attractive markets. There is nothing personal and no Russian community. I have invested money in Gazprom in 2011-12, gave good dividends. Since 2013 (mid) - not profitable, small dividends. And even though I don’t have millions (even not even tens of thousands). but nevertheless, out of many thousands of investors like me, the market is emerging.

        The share of foreign investment in the Russian economy is not large, since the public sector is very large and there are very few companies traded on the market. However, there is not a lot of free currency in the country. Basically, it is always bought by the Central Bank. Most of the "foreign speculative capital" in the Russian Federation is Russian money reinvested from offshore companies. It is they who are taken out of harm's way. Real economic growth in Russia is much higher than in the United States and Europe. However, Putin's recent statements about the fight against offshore companies are the trigger for the flight of "foreign capital."
        In this case, I see the coincidence of market conditions and the will of the state in order to improve the competitiveness of the Russian economy. 2014 for the Russian Federation in general can be very unfortunate, since a lot of negativity since 2013, including from geopolitics, has been carried over to 2014. So the state is working ahead of the curve.
        Quote: atalef
        To speak a little. it must be profitable to do

        This is already beneficial. The problem is that there is little information and people are not used to fighting for their rights. The quality of Russian goods at the global level. And the prices are lower. However, many networks do not specifically let these goods on the counter, as it is not very profitable for them. The cost of an average check is falling. And so the network of its own intermediaries gives the necessary profits and takes taxes to offshore, and consumers are told that they can do nothing ... imported goods and prices are set abroad. However, this is a lie, and this must be fought.
        Quote: atalef
        With benefit for the country - it already brings grandmas to the budget
        For citizens - the question, because everything will rise in price

        Only imports will rise in price, local goods will rise in price only because of the "greed" of traders. but for this there is FAS or consumer protection society.
        I urge all citizens not to be lazy to write to the right authorities, people there still get paid, so let them do their job.
  2. Login_Off
    Login_Off 30 January 2014 13: 34
    +2
    And where do I ask for the fall of the US economy, so zealously promised by some hat caps?
    The slabbing of the monetary unit of any country is beneficial only to STRONG economies, but not to Russia at all! To weaken the ruble and it was profitable, we need to produce something, but here we are only selling resources! We are not China, which specialist lowers the value of RMB to compete. We are not Japan, which is also trying to weaken the Yen in order to sell more of its goods.
    We are a commodity country, and the price of our goods depends on the exchanges and is tied to the currency. Like it or not, we in Currency will not receive more or less. As a result, the people will lose. Buying Import will become more expensive, but there is no local counterpart. We buy imported components in the currency, and the currency rises in price. So forgive me what is the point of weakening the ruble ???
    There is one plus, Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves, in terms of Rubles there will be More !!! But almost all of the savings in the United States, we are restoring their economy, not ours. !!
    1. atalef
      atalef 30 January 2014 15: 51
      0
      Quote: Login_Off
      There is one plus, Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves, in terms of Rubles there will be More !!!

      In Zimbabwe, the foreign exchange gold and foreign exchange reserves in the country (last year) were on the order of $ 860 (eight hundred and sixty) not even a thousand, but in terms of local currency, these were
      1 dollar SSA was equal to 10 million Zimbabwean
      dollars
      Therefore, if you calculate the foreign exchange reserves of Zimbabwe
      86 billion dollars (Zimbabwean laughing )
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. alone
      alone 30 January 2014 18: 47
      0
      It is naive to think that a depreciation of the ruble can benefit ordinary people. In the country, everything is sold for rubles. All goods brought into the country automatically rise in price. The jump in the price of one product on the market plays the role of a catalyst. Local goods also begin to rise in price. so bet on black, bet on red, ordinary people will still lose!
      1. Gluxar_
        Gluxar_ 30 January 2014 19: 39
        0
        Quote: lonely
        It is naive to think that a depreciation of the ruble can benefit ordinary people. In the country, everything is sold for rubles. All goods brought into the country automatically rise in price. The jump in the price of one product on the market plays the role of a catalyst. Local goods also begin to rise in price. so bet on black, bet on red, ordinary people will still lose!

        This is true. But this gives the people an opportunity to keep their jobs and develop their production, which in the near future will return a hundredfold for everyone. That is, this is a kind of nationwide investment in tomorrow. It is important that the control of the people over the merchants does not lead to the fact that the merchants will receive all the "dividends". It is important to ensure that prices for domestic products do not rise, and for this you need to immediately report all increases to the FAS. Including if the price of bread in the store has risen. People do not be lazy to do it all the time.
    4. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 30 January 2014 19: 36
      0
      Quote: Login_Off
      And where do I ask for the fall of the US economy, so zealously promised by some hat caps?
      The slabbing of the monetary unit of any country is beneficial only to STRONG economies, but not to Russia at all! To weaken the ruble and it was profitable, we need to produce something, but here we are only selling resources! We are not China, which specialist lowers the value of RMB to compete. We are not Japan, which is also trying to weaken the Yen in order to sell more of its goods.

      The fall of the US economy is that their internal and external debts are growing. That illusion of growth is not associated with real production, but with an increase in the money supply. This is a temporary treatment that only exacerbates the real illness of the economy.

      Quote: Login_Off
      We are a commodity country, and the price of our goods depends on the exchanges and is tied to the currency. Like it or not, we in Currency will not receive more or less. As a result, the people will lose. Buying Import will become more expensive, but there is no local counterpart. We buy imported components in the currency, and the currency rises in price. So forgive me what is the point of weakening the ruble ???
      There is one plus, Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves, in terms of Rubles there will be More !!! But almost all of the savings in the United States, we are restoring their economy, not ours. !!

      The country's trade balance will not change, but the cost of producing a unit of output will decrease relatively. Goods produced in the Russian Federation and sold in the Russian Federation will become more competitive. As for the fact that the Russian Federation does not produce anything, you are mistaken. Russia produces almost all goods of all categories, just for export we supply mainly raw materials or products of the military-industrial complex or AtomStroy. However, there is also the Russian market. It is for him that the struggle is going on. The depreciation of the ruble will strengthen the position of domestic producers in competition with imports. And this will provide an opportunity to develop production and further increase competitiveness, already on the effect of production growth.
      And only when there will be powerful industrial producers in Russia, providing a multi-million dollar Russian market, in the future the market of the Eurasian Union, then they will become able to compete with both the West and China.
  3. Login_Off
    Login_Off 31 January 2014 07: 31
    -2
    Quote: Gluxar_
    The fall of the US economy is that their internal and external debts are growing. That illusion of growth is not associated with real production, but with an increase in the money supply. This is a temporary treatment that only exacerbates the real illness of the economy.

    This is what I have been hearing since about 2001. During this time, what exactly has changed? In the USA, 2 crises passed, but just as the Bula is the strongest economy, it remained. Excuse me, but in my lifetime I will see the fall of the US economy as it was with the economy of the USSR? or just China will catch up with the United States and become the first economy in the world. Thus, it can be said that the US economy collapsed :)
    No, as long as they buy their pieces of paper, you won’t do anything. And the paper buys, and Japan, and China and Russia. God forbid this paper collapses, we will be fired!
    Quote: Gluxar_
    The country's trade balance will not change, but the cost of producing a unit of output will decrease relatively. Goods produced in the Russian Federation and sold in the Russian Federation will become more competitive. As for the fact that the Russian Federation does not produce anything, you are mistaken. Russia produces almost all goods of all categories, just for export we supply mainly raw materials or products of the military-industrial complex or AtomStroy.

    Seriously? And if the components of the goods that we produce grow in price, what will happen? A fixed-value contract, not everyone can agree to an increase in the price of products. To buy imported, you must either store the revenue in dollars or change it in the central bank, and how much will this exchange eat?
    1. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 31 January 2014 15: 24
      -1
      Quote: Login_Off
      This is what I have been hearing since about 2001. During this time, what exactly has changed? In the USA, 2 crises passed, but just as the Bula is the strongest economy, it remained. Excuse me, but in my lifetime I will see the fall of the US economy as it was with the economy of the USSR? or just China will catch up with the United States and become the first economy in the world. Thus, it can be said that the US economy collapsed :)
      No, as long as they buy their pieces of paper, you won’t do anything. And the paper buys, and Japan, and China and Russia. God forbid this paper collapses, we will be fired!

      Look at the fullness of the US economy and its share in the global economy. The share of the US economy is steadily declining. What has been built for decades and falls for a long time. Look at the ratio of GDP to public debt. There are changes. U.S. unemployment fell to 8%, while GDP grew in 2013. But total GDP grew by 650 billion, despite the fact that the Fed alone had more than a trillion in 2013. That is, even if this money was pushed into the account of one bank and transferred to another, this would lead to greater growth. Hence the simple conclusion that the real economy is sagging and more and more slipping solely into financial operations and the service sector. Which have already exceeded 80% of the state’s GDP.
      The consequences of such changes are not long in coming, this is the sequestration of the budget and the government’s shutdown in October, as well as the reduction of military programs and much more.

      The so-called collapse of the United States is the same myth as many Russophobic tales like the oil needle. However, both in the first and in the second case, there are specific economic reasons under the "myth". And the fact that the United States is increasingly slipping into the abyss of debt cannot be ignored. The Fed chairman has recently changed, the policy is unlikely to change, but anything can happen ... if the "quantitative easing" ends or the world powers do not agree to continue it, then the most tragic scenarios may be realized.
      Quote: Login_Off
      Seriously? And if the components of the goods that we produce grow in price, what will happen? A fixed-value contract, not everyone can agree to an increase in the price of products. To buy imported, you must either store the revenue in dollars or change it in the central bank, and how much will this exchange eat?

      If you are talking about the import of the element base, then the localization of production within the country will increase. Which, in principle, has already been done in most industries.
      However, some of the goods will indeed rise in price, which will reduce their competitiveness with domestic counterparts. In addition, if we consider the business strategy of large companies, then the effect of accession to the WTO from the reduction of import duties, just overlaps the depreciation of the national currency. For some reason, it seems to me that the current decline in the ruble is coordinated with the major players, because everything is calm and happened. Although the decline is actually quite significant, in previous years there would have been talk of the collapse of the "financial system." Today, everyone is silent, because all the changes, including the "cleaning" and revocation of licenses from dubious banks, take place within the framework of one campaign. At the same time, foreign direct investment in Russia has grown significantly.
      So I see the main reasons for the decrease in the value of the national currency as legitimate and controlled, which cannot but rejoice. Finally, our government can act so broadly and decisively, without fear of panic and artificial crises.