The world is in a state of qualitative reorganization. It is possible to determine its orientation on the basis of an analysis of objective trends in social development. They allow you to see the appearance of the future world order towards which humanity is moving.
The growth of national-cultural and civilizational polarization, as well as geopolitical regionalization, leads to the formation of communities of states on a civilizational basis. This happens amid the loss of almost all countries of the world of self-sufficiency.
Western civilization is the most advanced in this respect. It has already formed a single defense organization - the NATO bloc. In spiritual and economic terms, Western countries represent a single space based on common principles of life activity. A single political organization is being drawn up - the European Union.
Rather intensive integration processes began in the post-Soviet space within the framework of the Eurasian civilization community. The core of this process was the Customs Union.
Integration processes are actively underway in Latin America, where Brazil is the leading center in economic and military terms.
As an independent subject of geopolitics, Islamic civilization is aware of itself, within which there are many individual cultures and sub-civilizations. Between them there is a fierce struggle for dominance in the Islamic world. However, as a subject of geopolitics, the Islamic world has already taken shape. Its two wings, the Sunni led by Saudi Arabia and the Shiite led by Iran, have clear geopolitical projects of a civilizational scale that they consistently seek to bring to life.
Separate civilizations are China and India. In terms of population, each of these countries significantly exceeds any of the above. Their scientific, economic and military potential is growing at an extremely high rate. Both states have their own geopolitical projects. In particular, China, judging by the direction of its economic and demographic expansion, as well as the development of the PLA, seeks to expand its zone of influence with the Chinese geopolitics of the main countries of Southeast and Central Asia being pulled into orbit.
Horizons of expectations
An important direction of civilization integration is the formation of regional financial systems built on the basis of single currencies. Another significant trend is the reduction of the gap in economic development and military potential between the most developed western and other civilizations. The growth of negative changes in Western society as a whole, primarily in its spiritual sphere, the exacerbation of the raw materials and energy crisis, de-industrialization within the framework of globalization have already led to the loss, above all of the United States, of absolute superiority in the world in the economic sphere, and later on in the military . Proof of this is the disastrous conclusion of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the catastrophic results of the “Arab Spring”, the disruption of the NATO military operation in Syria, followed by the defeat of the militants, the counter-revolution in Egypt and the refusal of the Ukrainian leadership to immediately sign an association agreement with the EU. All of these events have significantly weakened the position of the West in the Middle East.
Significant impact on the appearance of the future world order will have a growing intra-Western contradictions. The interests of the old Europe and the Anglo-Saxon axis London - Washington are increasingly beginning to diverge. This was clearly manifested, in particular, in relation to the war with Iraq in 2003, when Germany and France spoke out against the American military operation.
In the economic sphere, this trend manifested itself in the adoption of a single European currency, which managed to seize dominant positions in the markets of continental Europe and compete with the dollar.
Considering all this, already in the medium term, within the framework of Western civilization, we should expect the separation of two centers of power: the British-American Atlantic and the German-French continental. The latter will seek closer cooperation with Russia, creating the prerequisites for the formation of the Berlin-Moscow-Beijing continental axis.
Of course, an important role in shaping the future world order will be played by the strengthening of the role and influence in the system of international relations of transnational economic, spiritual and criminal organizations. Their activities will contribute to the growth of the value and influence of supranational authorities, such as the UN, as well as strengthening the interconnectedness of the world with the weakening in one way or another of the state sovereignty of almost all states.
An important sign of recent times has become the outlined expansion of the interaction of non-Western civilizations to curb Western attempts to use military force against individual countries. This was particularly pronounced with respect to Syria when the leading states of Latin America, Russia, China and Iran came out in a united front against the attempt of the United States and its NATO allies to begin military intervention. In fact, it is possible to talk about the beginning of the process of forming a united front of non-Western civilizations to prevent the possibility of creating any model of a unipolar world. This significantly reduces the likelihood of a third world war, since the West, which claims to dominate the world in a unipolar model, will not dare to oppose the united front of other civilizations.
It can be assumed that further world development will be primarily of an evolutionary nature. Although local wars and armed conflicts will persist, since the struggle for a unipolar world is not yet complete and the existing territorial problems are not resolved within certain civilizations (in particular, Islamic).
West and Eurasia
The outlined trends suggest that, in the medium term, the multipolar world will take shape in its main features. First of all, it will be built on the basis of civilization unions of states. Each of the civilizations in it will become a sufficiently independent and powerful center of geopolitical power, which will crucially determine the direction of the entire union. It is very likely that each of these unions will adopt a single currency. The formation of collective security systems, in particular the coalition groups of the armed forces on an ongoing basis, cannot be excluded. At the same time, the states will remain in the role of the main subjects of international law, since only they can represent, embody and protect the national identity and the rights of peoples in all their diversity.
The architecture of the future world will be determined by five major civilization alliances. First of all, Western civilization, in which two relatively independent regional blocs will be finalized:
1. Atlantic, which will be based on the United States, United Kingdom and Canada. Its geopolitical center of power will be America. It is possible that the United States, Canada and Mexico are implementing the project of the North American Union.
2. Continental, made up of European states, the geopolitical center of power of which will be Germany and, probably, France.
The main factors for the development of this civilization will remain high technologies, especially in the information and military sphere. Most likely, it will be the first to move to a new, sixth technological order, becoming the leader of social transformations for the whole world. These changes will be associated with a change of political and economic elites. With very limited natural resources, this civilization will need to supply them, primarily energy, from external sources.
The military potential of this civilization will remain one of the most important components of the international security system, will determine its architecture.
Most likely, the Eurasian Civilization Union will be finalized, the core of which will be Russia, and the basis will be the states of the post-Soviet space. It is quite possible the political integration of some of them into a single state. Already today there is a Union State of Russia - Belarus. There is every reason to assume that in the future politically, the states of the Customs Union can unite. The CSTO is a military organization of the Eurasian Civilization Union.
The most important source of the existence and development of Russia and the post-Soviet countries allied with it is the development and export of raw materials, as well as high technologies, primarily military ones. The unprecedented social stratification of society, the limited legitimacy of the large states created, the barbaric way of seizing public property by a negligible population group, the conflict of elites, and the interest of external forces in destabilizing the situation in the post-Soviet countries determine the high risk of social upheavals in the near future. Thus, the Eurasian Civilization Union can become another important center of world social transformations. Having lost a significant part of its scientific, technological and industrial potential, the Eurasian Civilization Union for a long time will need to import high-tech products, especially in the civilian sector, as well as food. Russia's military potential will remain one of the most important components of the international security system and, along with the military organization of the West, will determine its architecture.
Around Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, Brazil
In the medium term, an Islamic civilization can emerge, which most likely will include two relatively independent and competing alliances: Shiite and Sunni alliances. The first will be based on Iran and Iraq, the second - the Gulf monarchies and their allies in North Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia. The leader of the Shiite union will be Iran, Sunni - while Saudi Arabia remains. However, the situation may change due to internal problems in this country, primarily related to the succession to the throne and the conflict of the Shiite majority with the Sunni government.
The main source of development of the Sunni Union will be the development and export of energy carriers. Prerequisites for the emergence of high-tech industry here is not observed. Accordingly, it will need to import a wide range of industrial products.
For the Shiite Union, the development and export of energy carriers will also be the most important source of livelihoods. However, the relatively high rates of development of industrial production in Iran, especially the military, suggest that in the medium term, a significant part of the range of domestic consumption of industrial products can be covered by their own production and even exported. Nevertheless, this community will still need to import a wide range of industrial products for a long time.
China may be able to form, on the basis of civilizational proximity, an alliance of states of Southeast Asia, guided by it as a leader. The value of this union as a global producer of consumer goods will only be strengthened. At the same time, the advancing pace of development of high-tech industries is likely to bring him among the world leaders in this area, especially in terms of arms exports.
The high growth rates of China’s military potential are likely to allow it to achieve parity with the United States in the field of both conventional and nuclear weapons in the medium term and surpass Russia accordingly.
The lack of natural resources dictates the need to export them. The extremely high growth rates of the Chinese economy determine the outpacing growth in the demand for raw materials. Limiting their supply could put China on the brink of disaster. Under these conditions, he can decide on military expansion, which will lead to large-scale war, and with the massive use of nuclear weapons, because without it, it is impossible to stop the Chinese military expansion.
The military potential of China, together with Russian and Western, will determine the architecture of the international security system.
Latin America is likely to clearly form into a single civilization alliance in the medium term. His leader, judging by the emerging trends, will be Brazil. The rich natural resources of the countries of this region determine the role of this civilization as an exporter of raw materials and energy carriers. And the high rates of industrial development of some states (the same Brazil) will allow to cover a part of the nomenclature of domestic consumption at the expense of own production. However, the products of high-tech industries will remain the subject of imports for a long time.
Communication and intercivilizational communities
Developing civilization alliances with their features of production and consumption will determine the communication flows, the most intensive of which form a latitudinal-longitudinal grid.
In the latitudinal direction, the most intense flows will run between 30 and 50-m north, connecting Europe, the USA, China and Russia, and in the mid-latitudes of the southern hemisphere - Latin America, Africa, Australia and the island zones of the western Pacific.
In the longitudinal direction, the main traffic flows will be along the lines of North - South America, Europe - Africa and the Middle East, Eurasia - the Middle East, China, as well as communications in the western Pacific Ocean, connecting the countries of Southeast Asia, Russia and the United States.
In addition to civilization unions, inter-civilization communities will also take part in shaping the picture of the world of the future. Today the SCO, integrating the leading countries of the three civilizations in the Eurasian space, and BRICS, uniting the largest states of almost all non-Western civilizations with the exception of the Islamic one, are such.
Now these communities are based solely on the economic base. However, the precedent in Syria suggests that intercivilizational integration can acquire deeper connections due to its extension to the security sphere and expansion of interaction in the spiritual field.
If current trends continue, in the medium term, we can expect the organizational design of the European-Asian community along the Berlin-Moscow-Beijing axis. Initially on an economic basis. The emergence of such a holistic economic space, covering the entire Eurasian continent from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean, will allow to solve the absolute majority of existing and future development problems not only of the peoples of Europe and Asia, but of the whole world, ensuring the economic and political sustainability of the world order as a whole.
Of course, the WTO will continue to play a positive role in the development of the world economy. In the architecture of the world of the future, such organizations are extremely important from the point of view of forming and maintaining uniform principles of human existence, in particular ensuring a non-violent world order, when the use of military and other force is allowed only to protect the rights of peoples in cases enshrined in international legal documents.
Such organizations can become essential tools for creating an effective system for managing the development of humanity as a whole. In particular, the UN can and should become the truly main body for the implementation of international law, and not a tool to justify the actions of certain powerful states or coalitions.
Such an outline can acquire a global world order in the medium term.