Military Review

The contours of the future - the era of civilizations

23
The architecture of the future world will be determined by five major civilization alliances.


The world is in a state of qualitative reorganization. It is possible to determine its orientation on the basis of an analysis of objective trends in social development. They allow you to see the appearance of the future world order towards which humanity is moving.

The growth of national-cultural and civilizational polarization, as well as geopolitical regionalization, leads to the formation of communities of states on a civilizational basis. This happens amid the loss of almost all countries of the world of self-sufficiency.

Western civilization is the most advanced in this respect. It has already formed a single defense organization - the NATO bloc. In spiritual and economic terms, Western countries represent a single space based on common principles of life activity. A single political organization is being drawn up - the European Union.

Rather intensive integration processes began in the post-Soviet space within the framework of the Eurasian civilization community. The core of this process was the Customs Union.

Integration processes are actively underway in Latin America, where Brazil is the leading center in economic and military terms.

As an independent subject of geopolitics, Islamic civilization is aware of itself, within which there are many individual cultures and sub-civilizations. Between them there is a fierce struggle for dominance in the Islamic world. However, as a subject of geopolitics, the Islamic world has already taken shape. Its two wings, the Sunni led by Saudi Arabia and the Shiite led by Iran, have clear geopolitical projects of a civilizational scale that they consistently seek to bring to life.

Separate civilizations are China and India. In terms of population, each of these countries significantly exceeds any of the above. Their scientific, economic and military potential is growing at an extremely high rate. Both states have their own geopolitical projects. In particular, China, judging by the direction of its economic and demographic expansion, as well as the development of the PLA, seeks to expand its zone of influence with the Chinese geopolitics of the main countries of Southeast and Central Asia being pulled into orbit.

Horizons of expectations

An important direction of civilization integration is the formation of regional financial systems built on the basis of single currencies. Another significant trend is the reduction of the gap in economic development and military potential between the most developed western and other civilizations. The growth of negative changes in Western society as a whole, primarily in its spiritual sphere, the exacerbation of the raw materials and energy crisis, de-industrialization within the framework of globalization have already led to the loss, above all of the United States, of absolute superiority in the world in the economic sphere, and later on in the military . Proof of this is the disastrous conclusion of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the catastrophic results of the “Arab Spring”, the disruption of the NATO military operation in Syria, followed by the defeat of the militants, the counter-revolution in Egypt and the refusal of the Ukrainian leadership to immediately sign an association agreement with the EU. All of these events have significantly weakened the position of the West in the Middle East.

The contours of the future - the era of civilizationsSignificant impact on the appearance of the future world order will have a growing intra-Western contradictions. The interests of the old Europe and the Anglo-Saxon axis London - Washington are increasingly beginning to diverge. This was clearly manifested, in particular, in relation to the war with Iraq in 2003, when Germany and France spoke out against the American military operation.

In the economic sphere, this trend manifested itself in the adoption of a single European currency, which managed to seize dominant positions in the markets of continental Europe and compete with the dollar.

Considering all this, already in the medium term, within the framework of Western civilization, we should expect the separation of two centers of power: the British-American Atlantic and the German-French continental. The latter will seek closer cooperation with Russia, creating the prerequisites for the formation of the Berlin-Moscow-Beijing continental axis.

Of course, an important role in shaping the future world order will be played by the strengthening of the role and influence in the system of international relations of transnational economic, spiritual and criminal organizations. Their activities will contribute to the growth of the value and influence of supranational authorities, such as the UN, as well as strengthening the interconnectedness of the world with the weakening in one way or another of the state sovereignty of almost all states.

An important sign of recent times has become the outlined expansion of the interaction of non-Western civilizations to curb Western attempts to use military force against individual countries. This was particularly pronounced with respect to Syria when the leading states of Latin America, Russia, China and Iran came out in a united front against the attempt of the United States and its NATO allies to begin military intervention. In fact, it is possible to talk about the beginning of the process of forming a united front of non-Western civilizations to prevent the possibility of creating any model of a unipolar world. This significantly reduces the likelihood of a third world war, since the West, which claims to dominate the world in a unipolar model, will not dare to oppose the united front of other civilizations.

It can be assumed that further world development will be primarily of an evolutionary nature. Although local wars and armed conflicts will persist, since the struggle for a unipolar world is not yet complete and the existing territorial problems are not resolved within certain civilizations (in particular, Islamic).

West and Eurasia

The outlined trends suggest that, in the medium term, the multipolar world will take shape in its main features. First of all, it will be built on the basis of civilization unions of states. Each of the civilizations in it will become a sufficiently independent and powerful center of geopolitical power, which will crucially determine the direction of the entire union. It is very likely that each of these unions will adopt a single currency. The formation of collective security systems, in particular the coalition groups of the armed forces on an ongoing basis, cannot be excluded. At the same time, the states will remain in the role of the main subjects of international law, since only they can represent, embody and protect the national identity and the rights of peoples in all their diversity.

The architecture of the future world will be determined by five major civilization alliances. First of all, Western civilization, in which two relatively independent regional blocs will be finalized:

1. Atlantic, which will be based on the United States, United Kingdom and Canada. Its geopolitical center of power will be America. It is possible that the United States, Canada and Mexico are implementing the project of the North American Union.

2. Continental, made up of European states, the geopolitical center of power of which will be Germany and, probably, France.

The main factors for the development of this civilization will remain high technologies, especially in the information and military sphere. Most likely, it will be the first to move to a new, sixth technological order, becoming the leader of social transformations for the whole world. These changes will be associated with a change of political and economic elites. With very limited natural resources, this civilization will need to supply them, primarily energy, from external sources.

The military potential of this civilization will remain one of the most important components of the international security system, will determine its architecture.

Most likely, the Eurasian Civilization Union will be finalized, the core of which will be Russia, and the basis will be the states of the post-Soviet space. It is quite possible the political integration of some of them into a single state. Already today there is a Union State of Russia - Belarus. There is every reason to assume that in the future politically, the states of the Customs Union can unite. The CSTO is a military organization of the Eurasian Civilization Union.

The most important source of the existence and development of Russia and the post-Soviet countries allied with it is the development and export of raw materials, as well as high technologies, primarily military ones. The unprecedented social stratification of society, the limited legitimacy of the large states created, the barbaric way of seizing public property by a negligible population group, the conflict of elites, and the interest of external forces in destabilizing the situation in the post-Soviet countries determine the high risk of social upheavals in the near future. Thus, the Eurasian Civilization Union can become another important center of world social transformations. Having lost a significant part of its scientific, technological and industrial potential, the Eurasian Civilization Union for a long time will need to import high-tech products, especially in the civilian sector, as well as food. Russia's military potential will remain one of the most important components of the international security system and, along with the military organization of the West, will determine its architecture.

Around Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, Brazil

In the medium term, an Islamic civilization can emerge, which most likely will include two relatively independent and competing alliances: Shiite and Sunni alliances. The first will be based on Iran and Iraq, the second - the Gulf monarchies and their allies in North Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia. The leader of the Shiite union will be Iran, Sunni - while Saudi Arabia remains. However, the situation may change due to internal problems in this country, primarily related to the succession to the throne and the conflict of the Shiite majority with the Sunni government.

The main source of development of the Sunni Union will be the development and export of energy carriers. Prerequisites for the emergence of high-tech industry here is not observed. Accordingly, it will need to import a wide range of industrial products.

For the Shiite Union, the development and export of energy carriers will also be the most important source of livelihoods. However, the relatively high rates of development of industrial production in Iran, especially the military, suggest that in the medium term, a significant part of the range of domestic consumption of industrial products can be covered by their own production and even exported. Nevertheless, this community will still need to import a wide range of industrial products for a long time.

China may be able to form, on the basis of civilizational proximity, an alliance of states of Southeast Asia, guided by it as a leader. The value of this union as a global producer of consumer goods will only be strengthened. At the same time, the advancing pace of development of high-tech industries is likely to bring him among the world leaders in this area, especially in terms of arms exports.

The high growth rates of China’s military potential are likely to allow it to achieve parity with the United States in the field of both conventional and nuclear weapons in the medium term and surpass Russia accordingly.

The lack of natural resources dictates the need to export them. The extremely high growth rates of the Chinese economy determine the outpacing growth in the demand for raw materials. Limiting their supply could put China on the brink of disaster. Under these conditions, he can decide on military expansion, which will lead to large-scale war, and with the massive use of nuclear weapons, because without it, it is impossible to stop the Chinese military expansion.

The military potential of China, together with Russian and Western, will determine the architecture of the international security system.

Latin America is likely to clearly form into a single civilization alliance in the medium term. His leader, judging by the emerging trends, will be Brazil. The rich natural resources of the countries of this region determine the role of this civilization as an exporter of raw materials and energy carriers. And the high rates of industrial development of some states (the same Brazil) will allow to cover a part of the nomenclature of domestic consumption at the expense of own production. However, the products of high-tech industries will remain the subject of imports for a long time.

Communication and intercivilizational communities

Developing civilization alliances with their features of production and consumption will determine the communication flows, the most intensive of which form a latitudinal-longitudinal grid.

In the latitudinal direction, the most intense flows will run between 30 and 50-m north, connecting Europe, the USA, China and Russia, and in the mid-latitudes of the southern hemisphere - Latin America, Africa, Australia and the island zones of the western Pacific.

In the longitudinal direction, the main traffic flows will be along the lines of North - South America, Europe - Africa and the Middle East, Eurasia - the Middle East, China, as well as communications in the western Pacific Ocean, connecting the countries of Southeast Asia, Russia and the United States.

In addition to civilization unions, inter-civilization communities will also take part in shaping the picture of the world of the future. Today the SCO, integrating the leading countries of the three civilizations in the Eurasian space, and BRICS, uniting the largest states of almost all non-Western civilizations with the exception of the Islamic one, are such.

Now these communities are based solely on the economic base. However, the precedent in Syria suggests that intercivilizational integration can acquire deeper connections due to its extension to the security sphere and expansion of interaction in the spiritual field.

If current trends continue, in the medium term, we can expect the organizational design of the European-Asian community along the Berlin-Moscow-Beijing axis. Initially on an economic basis. The emergence of such a holistic economic space, covering the entire Eurasian continent from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean, will allow to solve the absolute majority of existing and future development problems not only of the peoples of Europe and Asia, but of the whole world, ensuring the economic and political sustainability of the world order as a whole.

Of course, the WTO will continue to play a positive role in the development of the world economy. In the architecture of the world of the future, such organizations are extremely important from the point of view of forming and maintaining uniform principles of human existence, in particular ensuring a non-violent world order, when the use of military and other force is allowed only to protect the rights of peoples in cases enshrined in international legal documents.

Such organizations can become essential tools for creating an effective system for managing the development of humanity as a whole. In particular, the UN can and should become the truly main body for the implementation of international law, and not a tool to justify the actions of certain powerful states or coalitions.

Such an outline can acquire a global world order in the medium term.
Author:
Originator:
http://vpk-news.ru/
23 comments
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  1. AVV
    AVV 30 January 2014 13: 31
    +2
    Blocks and alliances of various directions from military to economic will continue to be created in the world! BRICS, the customs union is such that the Anglo-Saxons are not happy in any way !!! Therefore, there will be a struggle not for life, but for death, and who will win will depend on this and the way the world will develop in the future !!!
    1. GELEZNII_KAPUT
      GELEZNII_KAPUT 30 January 2014 20: 50
      +2
      I feel the victory can radiation! what difference does it make to strip anyone with nuclear bombs, Russia or the entire BRICS, striped ones have enough for everyone, and they are still maniacs! hi
  2. andrei332809
    andrei332809 30 January 2014 18: 20
    +7
    The most advanced in this regard is Western civilization.

    come on???
    but in general, I read, I read ... something kind of familiar notes. the author, by chance, doesn’t write for ren-tv?
  3. mad
    mad 30 January 2014 18: 30
    +7
    It is sad that the goal of all these projects is not to improve the life of Mankind, both ethically and physically, but the desire of some to enslave others (((Not soon apple trees will bloom on Mars, all the planet's resources are spent on military corporations, color revolutions, protection "rights" of sodomites, etc. The consumer society is flawed, even socialism seems to me a more attractive way of development.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. matross
      matross 30 January 2014 22: 25
      +5
      Quote: mad
      even socialism seems to me a more attractive development path.

      EVEN?! How old are you? I'm not rude, just surprised. Socialism is by far the 100 times more attractive way of development. This can be confirmed by everyone who lived under socialism.
  4. Yaroslav
    Yaroslav 30 January 2014 18: 32
    +2
    Let us hope that the UN will become an organ of world law and order, and not a litter for some.
    1. demel2
      demel2 30 January 2014 19: 10
      +8
      The UN has outlived itself a long time ago and is unlikely to recover.
  5. polkovnik manuch
    polkovnik manuch 30 January 2014 18: 47
    +3
    Again the struggle for the redivision of the world!? Sales markets !? The theory of the "bearded German" does not die without communism. Consequently, the Russian Federation will have to decide with whom it is closer, more comfortable and more expedient to enter into allied relations. Today it is already clear that this is not Europe (except for Germany there are no serious partners), therefore, forward to the southeast, while we are being held out, but watchfully O-oh! Yankees will not become friends - that's tokens. Like the film "Gloomy Morning" by A. Tolstoy: "Old Man didn't know which way to turn the machine-gun carts."
  6. sawmill
    sawmill 30 January 2014 18: 56
    0
    Where do such fly agarics grow?
  7. starhina01
    starhina01 30 January 2014 19: 05
    +2
    an interesting report to the author + (PS, but the whole basis is already clear except for the Middle East, the campaign has not yet decided on the end) hi
  8. bulvas
    bulvas 30 January 2014 19: 21
    +4
    there is no progress without a struggle, therefore the struggle will always be, but will take different forms
    all the most significant in the history of civilization was born thanks to the struggle. In Africa you can live under a banana tree and you don’t have to invent anything

    It will become unbearably live on Earth - people reach into space, for resources or for a new territory. Otherwise, who needs it, this cosmos.

  9. calocha
    calocha 30 January 2014 19: 28
    +2
    The one who is the first to find a way out of the economic impasse and gain allies to that and get lava ...
  10. mountain
    mountain 30 January 2014 20: 04
    +1
    I can not agree with the author. It will never be so, because it cannot be like that.
  11. ramsi
    ramsi 30 January 2014 20: 11
    +1
    And I see, the options for the coming of the Antichrist are not even considered, but if it is not a shock (it cannot be), then a sensation is definitely. As the saying goes, "the time of cruel miracles has approached"
    1. chunga-changa
      chunga-changa 30 January 2014 20: 40
      +1
      Quote: ramsi
      coming of antichrist

      I bet the aliens will fly earlier, by the way, it is not known which is worse.
      1. sawmill
        sawmill 30 January 2014 22: 00
        -1
        The aliens have already arrived. And as one passed in the elections to the State Duma. The author of the article is also a Martian.
  12. Yuri Sev Caucasus
    Yuri Sev Caucasus 30 January 2014 21: 22
    0
    Russia has many development vectors, but what future we will choose from this and our future will depend on it. The Slavic Union would be optimal, but this is the most difficult way. So, most likely we will again take the fragments of the USSR into its orbit.
  13. shelva
    shelva 30 January 2014 21: 33
    +1
    The author has become cramped within the limits of civilizations, and he operates with blocks of civilizations, placing them in latitudes and longitudes, predicting their formations of the type: "soon", "after them" and "someday". Having missed the fact that such "established" civilizations as the Western one consists of countries affected by separatism, whose integrity for the near future is questionable. Moreover, energy hunger and lack of natural resources make them especially vulnerable.
    We are able to master the most modern technologies - the matter is zeal, but if you do not zeal, you will not become richer in resources.
    This is such a damn civilization.
  14. Sergey S.
    Sergey S. 30 January 2014 21: 56
    0
    Quote: Yaroslav
    Let us hope that the UN will become an organ of world law and order, and not a litter for some.

    To hope for this is to lose in advance.
    The UN was a law enforcement agency when it was impossible to manage the process without the participation of the USSR.
    That is, under I.V. Stalin.
    Then, in descending order, but taking into account the fact that it is impossible to succumb to the territory controlled by the USSR, the rule of law on the planet was quietly bent ...

    Since 1991, the UN has been the laughing stock of covering up the affairs of Amers and dodging from the truth, like a worm from the sun.
    And this is worse than bedding. She at least warms and caresses, and only asks for money, but does not send democratization aircraft carriers to bomb women and children.
  15. Sergey XXX
    Sergey XXX 30 January 2014 22: 14
    +1
    What looks like a weather forecast for tonight looks like what I see, then I describe ... quote: "In the latitudinal direction, the most intense streams will run between 30 and 50 degrees north latitude ......." :-) ).
  16. sawmill
    sawmill 30 January 2014 22: 38
    +2
    Amazing article. Starting from the first phrases to the last pass, this is either nonsense or a statement of facts already covered with moss.
    In order not to be unfounded, we will try to disassemble this opus in parts.
    Quote.
    The world is in a state of qualitative reorganization. It is possible to determine its orientation on the basis of an analysis of objective trends in social development. They allow you to see the appearance of the future world order towards which humanity is moving.

    THE WORLD IS ALWAYS IN A STATE OF QUALITY REARGANIZATION, in 1905, 1914, 1917, 1939,1941, 1945, 1953, it is possible to list dates endlessly. The whole history of mankind is a continuous state of qualitative change.

    Quote
    The growth of national-cultural and civilizational polarization, as well as geopolitical regionalization, leads to the formation of communities of states on a civilizational basis. This happens amid the loss of almost all countries of the world of self-sufficiency.
    Western civilization is the most advanced in this respect. It has already formed a single defense organization - the NATO bloc. In spiritual and economic terms, Western countries represent a single space based on common principles of life activity. A single political organization is being drawn up - the European Union.

    So polarization leads to the formation of communities, how is it? And in what exactly is Western civilization the most advanced? In the loss of self-sufficiency?

    Further, the author has delusions in each paragraph.

    It makes no sense to analyze this.
    Laugh at the axis of the three countries of Germany, Russia, China (the first case in history when the axis is three countries and not two) of course you can, but for some reason I am sad.
  17. Name
    Name 30 January 2014 23: 18
    0
    Quote: polkovnik manuch
    Consequently, the Russian Federation will have to determine with whom it is closer, more comfortable and more expedient to enter into allied relations.

    Yes, Russia does not need to decide on anything! Russia is a self-sufficient civilization, which should unite all the peoples of the Slavic group around itself.
  18. Black
    Black 30 January 2014 23: 22
    0
    However, ... it is a pity for African blacks. The author did not give them a "center".
    1. sawmill
      sawmill 30 January 2014 23: 27
      0
      They are just not polarized enough yet. They still need to re-initialize their geopolitics and only then they will go civilizational changes in consequence of which they build an axis with Australia.
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. The comment was deleted.
    2. siberalt
      siberalt 31 January 2014 03: 29
      +1
      It's not just Africa. From the article in my head porridge. A story about civilizations, but what is the basis of the basic criteria for this concept? Nothing is clear from the article. Roofing felts for organizing society, roofing felts for the creation of military blocs, roofing felts for religion, roofing felts for some special life activity, roofing felts for population. Then, in general, what is a union of civilizations? Somehow civilization from the Greek townspeople (citizens) are no longer rural, not wild. Let's remember Tomaso Campanela's "Civitas Salts" - the city of the sun. That civilization, which the author has in the first place - in fact from the rabble from all over the world, parasitizing on him. Nice civilization! But what about the roots of the ancestors and their territory in which their descendants live for thousands of years, preserving the language, culture, customs and traditions?
    3. The comment was deleted.
  19. sawmill
    sawmill 30 January 2014 23: 22
    +1
    Separately, I want to note the beautiful momentum of the author. I quote only from the first lines:

    Objective tendencies of world development (apparently there are still subjective tendencies of world development. Probably this is when it seems that there are such tendencies to one it is subjective, and when to several it is objective.)

    General principles of life of Western civilization (apparently we, or the Chinese, or the blacks in Africa have other principles of life)

    Geopolitical regionalization (this is a type of regional geopolitics. When is there one geopolitics in the Tver region and another in the Yaroslavl region?)

    The author used the word geopolitics more often when writing an article than I did the word bl ... d when reading his creation.
    He still has many favorite words with which he anneals in the article.
  20. Rus2012
    Rus2012 30 January 2014 23: 34
    0
    Afftar zhzhot!
    Western civilization is the most advanced in this respect. It has already formed a single defense organization - the NATO bloc. In spiritual and economic terms, Western countries represent a single space based on common principles of life activity. A single political organization is being drawn up - the European Union.


    ... yeah, these sexless rainbow guys and girls have already set the vector for the development of mankind leading to sodom and homorra, and essentially to the self-destruction of biblical civilization ...

    The future lies with the ideas of the Russian World, where all the peoples of non-Western civilizations will live in harmony and harmony, as once. But it will first have to be created in works and accomplishments ...
  21. CHILD
    CHILD 31 January 2014 02: 36
    0
    What a strange analysis of the situation, even in my opinion not the most possible ... rather the least shocking))) judging by world history, we do not live peacefully, and the fastest way to acquire is to take something from someone ..... of course I want to believe into humanism and the highest value of human life)))) but as one character said "vague doubts torment me ...", in general the article is not about anything.