Military Review

On the eve of the war

116
On the eve of the war

Japan and China are gradually becoming the main adversaries in the Asia-Pacific region. However, if in the first half of the twentieth century the advantage of the Japanese was indisputable, now the situation has changed. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe compared the situation in the Asia-Pacific region with the eve of the First World War. Tokyo and Beijing play the role of London and Berlin at the beginning of the 20th century in this confrontation.


The Prime Minister of Japan at the World Economic Forum in Davos made a statement in which he compared the relations of Japan and China with the Anglo-German rivalry on the eve of the First World War. According to the Japanese politician, despite the fact that on the eve of the war the two great powers - the British and German empires - had comprehensive economic ties and trade relations, this did not prevent them from entering into conflict with each other. At the same time, the Japanese prime minister called China the main cause of instability in the region due to its large-scale military programs.

The hint is obvious. The current Japan and China also have developed economic ties. Therefore, many experts who reject the idea of ​​the possibility of a serious regional conflict in the APR are pushing precisely on the economic factor. They say that fighting is unprofitable, it is more profitable to cooperate. However, the economy is not the main factor that causes the war. In addition, the war leads to the development of technology, contributes to scientific and technological progress, infrastructure upgrades.

However, later, the press secretary of the head of the Japanese government, Yoshihide Suga, hastened to muffle the acuteness of Abe’s words, assuring the press that the prime minister did not consider a war between the two countries possible. The spokesman also noted that Shinzo Abe is in favor of dialogue and the rule of law, for limiting "the endless military expansion in Asia." Speaking in Davos, the Japanese prime minister called on the leading powers of the region not to increase military strength and "create a mechanism of crisis management, as well as channels of communication between our armed forces."

The next stage of cooling of Japan-China relations began at the end of 2013, due to territorial disputes over the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu). In November, Beijing announced the establishment of its air defense zone around the disputed territories. This provoked an angry reaction from Japan, the United States and South Korea. Japanese, American and South Korean aircraft continued regular patrol flights in the disputed zone. China did not aggravate the conflict, although initially promised to "ground" the violators.



Japan creates a full-fledged military

A more serious step for Japan was the adoption of a new national defense strategy in December 2013. The military budget will grow, self-defense forces will provide new technology and make it even more mobile, they will have the right to deploy outside the country. In addition, the air defense and missile defense systems will be upgraded. The troops are grouped with an emphasis on the south-western territories, that is, disputed territories with China. The formations that will be deployed in the south-eastern territories will be on high alert. To be able to fight the enemy, a special amphibious compound is formed in the sea zone that can solve the problem of capturing islands. It will be equipped with Osprey tweeters and amphibious amphibians.

The new national defense strategy includes a short-term and long-term program. The first is for 5 years (2014-2018), the second is ten years. The Japanese army is already considered professional, having the newest weapons. According to the Stockholm Peace Research Institute, Japan ranked fifth in the world in military expenditures in 2013, second only to the United States, China, Russia and the United Kingdom. The Japanese military budget amounted to about 58 billion. Japan’s main rival in the APR, China, has spent more than 114 billion dollars on defense. In the coming years, Tokyo will allocate about 240 billion dollars for defense needs. Thus, in 2014, Japan may take the fourth place in the world in military spending, and in a few years to enter the top three. In general, the financing of self-defense forces, despite the continuation of the protracted crisis in the economy, will be increased by 2,6%, and later by 5%.

Japan is once again becoming a great power, which claims its special place in the world. After the Second World War, when the Japanese empire (formally it is still an empire, since the emperor of Japan - “a symbol of the state and unity of the people”) was crushed and humiliated, she was forced to abandon the armed forces. Under the control of the head of the occupying forces of the American General Douglas MacArthur, the Japanese Constitution was written. The ninth article of the main law proclaimed the refusal of the sovereign right of a nation to its own army and the right to wage war by the state. Also, the Japanese abandoned the threat or use of armed force as a means of resolving international disputes.

The security of Japan was provided by American troops. The attack on Japan is still considered an attack on the United States. Gradually, the Americans from the occupiers became the main allies. Japan needed the US to contain the USSR and the PRC. In addition, the initial absence of the army allowed the Japanese budget to save considerably and freed up workers.

However, given the threat from the USSR and China, the United States allowed Japan to form National Security Forces, and in the 1954 year to transform them into Japan’s Self-Defense Forces. Formally, the Self-Defense Forces are a civilian (non-military) organization. By the beginning of the XXI century, with the full support of the United States, they were turned into a large professional army. Japan does not yet have some types of offensive weapons, it is only beginning to lift restrictions on military-technical cooperation with other powers, it does not have a nuclear weapons. But it's a matter of time to complete the process of turning Japan into a full-fledged great military power. And we are currently witnessing this process.

After the launch of the DPRK ballistic missiles in August 1998, Tokyo raised the issue of creating a missile defense system. In 2004, Washington and Tokyo signed an agreement of mutual understanding, which became the basis for cooperation in the field of missile defense. Japan allowed the Americans to deploy forward-based radars on their territory and began to participate in the production and procurement of Aegis, Patriot and SM-3 antimissiles. In 2007, Japan announced its intention to create a national missile defense system to protect against potential threats from the DPRK and China. Now the basis of the national missile defense system are six destroyers with the Aegis system, equipped with SM-3 antimissiles. The Navy should soon receive two more similar ships. In 2013, the Americans reported the deployment of a second radar station in Japan.

In 2005, the Japanese authorities put forward a proposal to give the status of a military organization to self-defense forces, for which it was necessary to change the basic law. In 2006, the bill on giving the status of a ministry to Japan’s self-defense forces was approved. In 2010, Japan banned the export of military technology. Japanese companies received the right to create joint ventures with foreign firms.

Representatives of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDPYA) began to actively promote the ideas of militarization of Japan. In December 2012 of the year, after coming to power, the project of large-scale reform of the armed forces was approved. It provides for the development of a missile defense system, giving the army the right to act outside of Japan and the creation of a marine corps. In the spring of 2013, this project was approved by the National Defense Council.

There are several special moments in the Japanese transformations. Firstly, the Japanese armed forces will have the right to act outside the country, to strike at enemy bases. Previously, self-defense forces had only defensive functions, now these restrictions have been removed.

Secondly, in 2014, the Japanese government must approve the right to collective self-defense. Thus, if someone attacks the Allies, Japan will come to their aid. For Japan, this is a political breakthrough, now it can expand the scope of its military activities to virtually the entire planet, not limited to protecting the Japanese islands from the aggressor.

Thirdly, Japan is revising the ban on the import of weapons and enhances the development of the PTS. This will cause the development of the Japanese Military Industrial Complex and lead to the emergence of Japanese military developments on the world market. The first steps in this direction have already been made. In 2012, Japan and England entered into an agreement for cooperation in the joint development of military systems. England became the first country with which Japan concluded a similar agreement, in addition to the United States. In 2013, Japan began negotiations on joint development of weapons with Turkey. At the beginning of 2014, military technical cooperation between Japan and India was intensified. A preliminary agreement was reached between the two Asian powers on the purchase by India of Japanese seaplanes US-2. Almost simultaneously, Japan agreed to strengthen military ties and increase military-technical cooperation with France. Among the priorities are drones, helicopters and submarines.

It can be seen with the naked eye that Tokyo is stepping up its military ties with the leading countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Great Britain and France are the great military powers with nuclear weapons, modern military technologies. In addition, London retains the neo-colonial system known as the Commonwealth of Nations, which includes almost all the former dominions, colonies and protectorates of the British Empire. And France has a similar system to Africa, controlling its former colonies through the financial system - the franc currency zone (CFA franc BEAC and CFA franc BCEAO). At the same time, the French stepped up their military policy in Africa. Turkey, although it has some autonomy, is also a member of NATO. India is the main potential opponent of China in South Asia.

Fourthly, in Japan, a law was passed, according to which a significant part of issues related to national defense and the military field would be further classified. This is not to say that before this area was transparent, but now the level of secrecy will increase even more. This speaks, if not of the approach of the military, then of prewar time for sure.

At the same time, ground, sea and air forces are expected to increase their striking power and mobility. Japan will continue to build “light aircraft carriers” (destroyers, helicopter carriers), destroyers and submarines. The Air Force will strengthen the fifth generation fighter F-35 Lightning II, unmanned aviation systems such as the American strategic UAV RQ-4 Global Hawke. At the same time, Japan stepped up a program to create its own fifth-generation fighter. In the ground forces, emphasis is placed on lighter and more maneuverable wheeled armored vehicles, which can be easily transferred over a developed communications network.

Prospects

Obviously, the national-patriotic course will continue, and in a relatively short time Japan will regain the status lost in 1945, the status of a great military power. The positions of Shinzo Abe in the party and parliament are very strong and it is doubtful that in the conditions of the global crisis, Tokyo will adhere to a pacifist policy. True, the Japanese still have to solve the problem of a sick economy. However, the development of the military-industrial complex will help to solve this problem.

It is clear that so far neither Tokyo nor Beijing are in the mood to escalate the conflict, much less to war. However, we know that the line between war and peace is very narrow. A huge zone of instability is forming at the eastern borders of Russia at a rapid pace. And this is not only the relationship between China and Japan, but also the situation on the Korean Peninsula. The Americans are doing everything to ensure that relations between the DPRK and South Korea are on the verge of an explosion.

Russia finds itself in a difficult situation. Japan and the United States are not friends. We should not forget about the territorial claims of Japan. Tokyo claims to four islands of the Kuril chain - Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan and Habomai. The peace treaty between Russia and Japan has not been signed. But China is not a strategic ally. If China can achieve superiority in the APR, it will sooner or later pay attention to the northern direction (Russia, Mongolia and Kazakhstan). Our military weakness in the eastern strategic direction and the practically deserted spaces of the Far East and Siberia is a huge problem.

It is not too late, it is necessary to restore the power of the Pacific and Northern fleets (the Northern Fleet, if necessary, can support the Pacific). It is necessary to have on the Kuriles and Sakhalin forces and means capable of preventing any thoughts of Japan about the "small victorious operation." In respect of China, one should adhere to friendly neutrality, at the same time restoring the capabilities of the Air Force, Air Defense, Missile Defense and ground forces of the Eastern Military District. At the same time, it is necessary to turn the Far East and Siberia into the “locomotive of development” of the whole of Russia.
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  1. Rattenfanger
    Rattenfanger 28 January 2014 08: 38
    +6
    The revanchist mood of the japs ​​is somewhat ... alarming, I would say. If not more.
    1. 225chay
      225chay 28 January 2014 08: 54
      +10
      Quote: Rattenfanger
      The revanchist mood of the japs ​​is somewhat ... alarming, I would say. If not more.

      We really need to urgently develop the Far East in all directions
      1. jon111
        jon111 28 January 2014 09: 36
        +36
        Something is not yet visible the development of the Far East, people leave for the European part of Russia constantly, there are no roads !!!! (I advise you to drive along the highway Vladivostok - Nakhodka - Vostochny Port at night) absolutely nothing is done, they built bridges and shout at the development of the Far East, but apart from the bridges, by the way, one of them that goes to Russky Island probably cost money so much that you could roll the whole edge into asphalt and in fact ate to go on this bridge you will come to a standstill! on about. Russian except FEFU there is nothing! Well, they carried out an ESPO pipe and drove oil for export, but this is no easier for people! Utility payments horror! Salary on average around the edge of 15 tr The cost of gasoline is 95 36.00 rubles, and higher, DT 37.00 rubles. How they want to develop the Far East is not clear to me !!!!
        1. Greenwood
          Greenwood 28 January 2014 09: 42
          +10
          Many do not even leave for the European part of Russia, but for those same China and Japan. Mostly young people of course. I personally knew several people who left for Japan. They don’t want to come back, although they come from time to time. Fortunately, there are 2 hours of flight to Japan.
          1. jon111
            jon111 28 January 2014 10: 32
            +5
            And what interesting are these people doing in Japan or in China? It’s units or students or cars that are sent from Japan, but basically they all fall to the west, he himself lived in Moscow for three years, he’s returned and is already thinking of leaving here. Sadly all really. It’s just that not everyone has the opportunity to leave, or even just fly to the capital.
            1. Greenwood
              Greenwood 28 January 2014 10: 52
              +3
              Learn, work. Someone is a translator, someone is engaged in business. Specialists in the IT industry are very in demand in Japan and China: programmers, network administrators, web designers, etc. The most important thing is knowledge of the language. Without it, there will be tight.
              By the way, those who drive cars from Japan do not actually live there. They work in Vladivostok, and go there only for the next batch of cars.
              1. Setrac
                Setrac 28 January 2014 16: 17
                -6
                Quote: Greenwood
                Learn, work. Someone is a translator, someone is engaged in business. Specialists in the IT industry are very in demand in Japan and China: programmers, network administrators, web designers, etc. The most important thing is knowledge of the language. Without it, there will be tight.

                These are just traitors. Russia taught them, and they work for the prosperity of another state. So it is necessary to ban entry into our country.
                1. alone
                  alone 28 January 2014 22: 31
                  +3
                  Quote: Setrac
                  These are just traitors. Russia taught them, and they work for the prosperity of another state. So it is necessary to ban entry into our country.


                  These are not traitors. They betrayed them. They brought people to the point of having to go to other countries. In vain you
                2. Greenwood
                  Greenwood 29 January 2014 01: 27
                  +3
                  If in our country there were normal conditions for living, self-realization, creating a family and raising children, no one would leave. In the current situation, I do not blame these people, but I fully understand. They want to live, it is to LIVE, not to SURVIVE and fight for existence.
        2. holding
          holding 28 January 2014 12: 39
          +7
          I completely agree with you! We need to encourage people to go to the Far East and live there. To begin to reduce prices for all-land, electricity, fuel ... And they only "develop" in words, like everything else.
          1. The comment was deleted.
          2. pri3rak
            pri3rak 28 January 2014 15: 20
            -1
            It is necessary to stimulate people to go to the Far East and live there

            Show an example !!!!!
          3. alone
            alone 28 January 2014 22: 36
            +1
            Waiting for you there !!))) The easiest way is to give advice and teach people what to do, but when it comes to reality, it is unlikely that anyone will do this. Only out of 10000
            maximum 1 person.
        3. Don
          Don 28 January 2014 13: 58
          -3
          Quote: jon111
          The cost of gasoline 95 36.00 p.

          What do you call expensive gasoline?
          Quote: jon111
          Salary on average around the edge of 15 tr

          I've found other data, 27-29 thousand rubles.
          1. Setrac
            Setrac 28 January 2014 16: 18
            -4
            Quote: Don
            I've found other data, 27-29 thousand rubles.

            You need to work for such a salary, but for 12-15 thousand you can wipe your pants in the office.
            1. Greenwood
              Greenwood 29 January 2014 01: 29
              +3
              Just at the office and wiping his pants for such a salary. Another question is that with our space prices and the predatory communal apartment this salary is not enough for a normal life.
        4. Don
          Don 28 January 2014 13: 58
          -5
          Quote: jon111
          The cost of gasoline 95 36.00 p.

          What do you call expensive gasoline?
          Quote: jon111
          Salary on average around the edge of 15 tr

          I've found other data, 27-29 thousand rubles.
          1. poccinin
            poccinin 28 January 2014 15: 16
            +3
            and what is cheap? salaries in different cities are different. KHABAROVSK-VLADIVOSTOK the salary is more than 40, but you have to plow from 000 to 8 every day, although someone settled as someone in the office and someone with a shovel. In other cities, worse than 23-10 20 is the limit
            1. Don
              Don 28 January 2014 15: 28
              -2
              Quote: poccinin
              and what is cheap?

              Yes. This is 9 UAH. We have 11 UAH.
              Quote: poccinin
              KHABAROVSK-VLADIVOSTOK the salary is more than 40 000 but it is necessary to plow from 8 to 23 every day

              Well, let's not exaggerate. When I do not believe that for 15 hours someone will work every day.
              Quote: poccinin
              in other cities, worse than 10-20 000 is the limit

              This is clear. But everywhere like that. The regional center and small towns of the region always differed in salaries. If in Donetsk we have an average of 3500 UAH (14000 rubles), then in Valnovakha (40 km from Donetsk), 1500 UAH. But the prices are different.
              1. alone
                alone 28 January 2014 22: 41
                +3
                Quote: Don
                Yes. This is 9 UAH. We have 11 UAH.


                Sergey, but Russia is an oil-producing country that provides itself completely with oil and oil products. And now we are looking at Ukraine, which cannot fully provide itself with oil products and is forced to export it.
                1. Don
                  Don 30 January 2014 12: 47
                  -1
                  Quote: lonely
                  Sergey, but Russia is an oil-producing country that provides itself completely with oil and oil products. And now we are looking at Ukraine, which cannot fully provide itself with oil products and is forced to export it.

                  Well, both Norway and Azerbaijan are oil producing states, and their gas prices are even higher. In Russia, the lowest price for gasoline in Europe, so I am surprised that some people there are not happy with the price of gasoline. Moreover, this price is in the Primorsky Territory. In areas where there are large refineries, the price is even lower.
                2. Don
                  Don 30 January 2014 12: 47
                  -1
                  Quote: lonely
                  Sergey, but Russia is an oil-producing country that provides itself completely with oil and oil products. And now we are looking at Ukraine, which cannot fully provide itself with oil products and is forced to export it.

                  Well, both Norway and Azerbaijan are oil producing states, and their gas prices are even higher. In Russia, the lowest price for gasoline in Europe, so I am surprised that some people there are not happy with the price of gasoline. Moreover, this price is in the Primorsky Territory. In areas where there are large refineries, the price is even lower.
      2. tilovaykrisa
        tilovaykrisa 28 January 2014 12: 10
        +5
        They will not climb to our Far East, they will climb with China, they can mate, knowing that the United States will support them, and they may surrender, similar actions were noticed for the amers. It is dangerous that yapis at the genetic level are sure that they are loading China because many times it was already like this in history, only at the moment China is a nuclear power and Japan is no longer an empire.
        1. Viktor Shmagin
          Viktor Shmagin 28 January 2014 22: 08
          0
          No, this time long-haired heap heaped
      3. AVV
        AVV 28 January 2014 12: 43
        +2
        In the Kuril Islands, to strengthen military bases and bastions to transfer there and other weapons !!!
        1. alex-s
          alex-s 28 January 2014 13: 47
          0
          It is only problematic to strengthen them, there it shakes constantly.
    2. RUSS
      RUSS 28 January 2014 09: 33
      0
      Quote: Rattenfanger
      The revanchist mood of the japs ​​is somewhat ... alarming, I would say. If not more.


      Maybe this is good for a balance of power. It’s clear that without amers and without its own cores. Japan’s military sense is nothing. Therefore, let them arm themselves, if only not in a nightmare, will they take up with us and against us? China Siberia, and Japan Kuril Islands .....
      1. Bongo
        Bongo 28 January 2014 11: 18
        +9
        Quote: RUSS
        Japan in the military sense of anything.

        You are mistaken, in many ways Japan is already surpassing our forces in the Far East.
        1. RUSS
          RUSS 28 January 2014 11: 34
          +3
          Quote: Bongo
          Quote: RUSS
          Japan in the military sense of anything.

          You are mistaken, in many ways Japan is already surpassing our forces in the Far East.


          This is logical since all Japan's forces are located in the DalEstok due to the territorial location of Japan. But let's not forget about our long-range aviation, which constantly "excites" the Yaps, add to this the Strategic Missile Forces and the Pacific Fleet.
          1. Greenwood
            Greenwood 28 January 2014 11: 46
            +2
            Strategic Rocket Forces do not need to be considered. The Japanese do not have the right to have nuclear weapons, but they are protected by the US nuclear umbrella. As for the Pacific Fleet, read the quantitative composition of their fleet, as well as the dates of the construction of ships and compare with our own. Not sure there is reason to be proud ...
            1. RUSS
              RUSS 28 January 2014 12: 02
              0
              Quote: Greenwood
              Strategic Rocket Forces do not need to be considered. The Japanese do not have the right to have nuclear weapons, but they are protected by the US nuclear umbrella. As for the Pacific Fleet, read the quantitative composition of their fleet, as well as the dates of the construction of ships and compare with our own. Not sure there is reason to be proud ...


              Is the US Nuclear Umbrella a missile defense? So for us it seems like missile defense is not a hindrance. As for the fleet, the surface is inferior, but do you consider modern submarines? No Yapi is clearly not an opponent in the weight category, I repeat again without the United States, Japan as an opponent of nothing.
              1. Greenwood
                Greenwood 29 January 2014 01: 31
                +1
                Quote: RUSS
                Is the US Nuclear Umbrella a missile defense?
                The nuclear umbrella of the United States is primarily a guarantee of the reciprocal use of American nuclear weapons in Russia, which is just as vulnerable.
              2. vedmeddd
                vedmeddd 29 January 2014 13: 37
                0
                http://elib.tomsk.ru/purl/1-6530/
        2. Tiamat2702
          Tiamat2702 28 January 2014 15: 41
          +2
          Japan is superior to us in the number and quality of the Navy (I mean Pacific Fleet, not the entire Russian Navy)
        3. The comment was deleted.
    3. Civil
      Civil 28 January 2014 09: 43
      -10%
      It is necessary to support China, they are strictly Russophobes
      1. Samaritan
        Samaritan 28 January 2014 10: 08
        +3
        Most likely, some question like "Serbia" will appear in the First World War, and Russia will fit in, only the question for whom and where it will lead !!
      2. Greenwood
        Greenwood 28 January 2014 11: 01
        0
        Quote: Civil
        yapi they are strictly Russophobia
        Who told you that?
      3. Rattenfanger
        Rattenfanger 28 January 2014 11: 41
        +8
        And the Chinese Slavophiles?
        1. RUSS
          RUSS 28 January 2014 12: 27
          +7
          Quote: Rattenfanger
          And the Chinese Slavophiles?


          They are "sibyrophiles" laughing
      4. RUSS
        RUSS 28 January 2014 12: 25
        +2
        Quote: Civil
        It is necessary to support China, they are strictly Russophobes


        It is necessary to support Russia, Russian Russophiles.
      5. Setrac
        Setrac 28 January 2014 16: 21
        0
        Quote: Civil
        It is necessary to support China, they are strictly Russophobes

        And who are the Chinese? Russophiles?
    4. StolzSS
      StolzSS 28 January 2014 20: 20
      +1
      Yes, these quick-eyed coves must be buried on the islands and sprinkled with ashes ...
  2. Alex_Popovson
    Alex_Popovson 28 January 2014 08: 40
    +1
    Well, I think if there is a war between China and the Japs, Japan, as always, anally caresses China so that the Celestial Empire will recover for another 20 years. But the option of large-scale actions is unlikely in my opinion.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. matross
      matross 28 January 2014 10: 00
      +15
      Quote: Alex_Popovson
      large-scale action option is unlikely in my opinion

      He would be incredible at all if Japan were not a vassal of the United States. The Americans relied on the military development of Japan in order to oppose it to Russia and China. More precisely, not "and", but "or" depending on the political situation. Well, it is not for them themselves, in fact, to fight the Russians or the Chinese, the Americans write overtures, but they themselves do not perform them, their chord is the last. The Middle East is on fire, Ukraine is about to burn, Europe is pounding, everyone is busy. Time to set fire to Asia. Chaos is coming. And whether he is controlled or not, it will soon become clear ... it is difficult to control the elements, they can get shocked themselves.
      1. Onyx
        Onyx 28 January 2014 14: 02
        +1
        Quote: matRoss
        He would have been unbelievable if Japan had not been a vassal of the United States.

        For some reason, many people forget about it here. The relationship between Japan and the USA is the relationship between Vassal and Suzeren, which didn’t cover with beautiful words about partnership and alliance. And without the go-ahead from Washington, Japan could not arm itself. It is clear that Americans with Japanese hands are trying to solve their problems.
        1. Kasym
          Kasym 28 January 2014 17: 48
          +2
          In my opinion, Russia can earn the next pluses and increase its weight in the world in this dispute between Japan and China. And squeeze the US in this region. The Russian Far East is a strategic platform throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
          The British would have acted pragmatically here - to support the one who "loses" and let them fight for attrition. It is obvious that in the near future we will see an arms race in the APR.
          Russia is a key player. That is why I think that China does not pose a threat to the Russian Federation. China needs Russia, now at least as a strong ally. Attacking Russia or entering into confrontation means in the near future the loss of all influence in the Asia-Pacific region, since you will have to throw all your resources into it.
          The PRC will do everything now just to get the support of Russia. It will be interesting to see how Russia uses this moment. Japan should be convinced of the futility of claims over the Kuril Islands, and China should be made a good neighbor - in my opinion, these issues can be resolved during this "confrontation". hi
          1. The comment was deleted.
          2. matross
            matross 28 January 2014 18: 46
            +2
            Quote: Kasym
            China needs Russia, now at least as a strong ally

            It is a dangerous delusion to regard the Chinese as allies. They are our neighbors, partners, resource consumers, anyone, but the Chaines play exclusively their own game. Now their game is real economy and development, incl. and military. The saber rattling of the islands in front of the Japanese is one of the test balls in their new role as a regional "tough walker". While the "Walker" was shown a fact from overseas and he was blown away - he announced an air defense zone, but did not open fire, "he did not answer for the market." There will be next steps, probably more meaningful given the experience gained.
            Well, the Japanese, I repeat, have no independent foreign policy, say Japan - we mean the United States.
          3. SV
            SV 29 January 2014 19: 28
            +1
            Finally a weighted comment !!!!!!
  3. Greenwood
    Greenwood 28 January 2014 08: 41
    +10
    In my opinion, only the continued presence of American troops and the lack of the right to have a full-fledged army prevent Japan from building one of the strongest armies and a powerful fleet in the Pacific region. The level of technology is extremely high, the industrial potential of the country is also huge, and the general discipline and ability to work in a team will make potential hegemons in the Pacific in the near future.
    Comparing the potential of the armies of China and Japan, I see an advantage in the former only in large numbers, as well as in the presence of nuclear weapons. In the event of hostilities at sea, China will lose, as it did before. Moreover, I am almost sure that the Japanese also have ballistic missile and nuclear weapons technologies, and introducing these products into production as soon as possible will not be a big problem for them.
    1. Kubatai
      Kubatai 28 January 2014 09: 48
      +4
      Do not underestimate the capabilities of China ... this is not the China that was 30-40-50 years ago about which they joked about a front with 2 tanks .. China is now the 2nd economy, spending on the Ministry of Defense is more than 110 billion. dollars .. and if the Chinese navy is now inferior to the "developed" countries, then this gap is rapidly narrowing ...
      ps But the Yapes are really alarming - they won’t leave the USA (they won’t be psychologically unable), so their allies, and as the author correctly noted, before the big war they will need a small victorious ... and here we are with our decline in troops eastward ... and the idea may well arise to select (return) the Kuril Islands, and Sakhalin at the same time ..
      1. Atlas
        Atlas 28 January 2014 11: 39
        +6
        and here we are with our decline in troops to the east ... and the idea may well arise of taking away (returning) the Kuril Islands, and Sakhalin at the same time .. and GETTING AN ADDITION TO A FEW OF A TACTICAL NUCLEAR BATON ... PUTIN'S EGGS FROM WHAT AND SHOULD BE WITH A PRESENT MAN. I DO NOT THINK THEY ARE NOT SUSPENDING US.
        1. Greenwood
          Greenwood 28 January 2014 11: 54
          +4
          Quote: Atlas
          A FUTURE OF TACTICAL NUCLEI BARS
          It will not happen. Do you know why? First, the use of nuclear weapons, even in a limited form, will provoke an international scandal and will hurt Russia's reputation. Secondly, the territory of Japan is teeming with nuclear power plants, a strike at these facilities will cause an uncontrolled nuclear reaction and large-scale radioactive contamination of the entire Far East and Asia as a whole. Chernobyl did not even stand nearby. It will be an environmental disaster on a planetary scale.
          1. Onyx
            Onyx 28 January 2014 14: 06
            +3
            Quote: Greenwood
            It will not happen. Do you know why? First, the use of nuclear weapons, even in a limited form, will provoke an international scandal and will hurt Russia's reputation.

            Oh wow. And the seizure of our territories will not provoke an international scandal?
            1. Kibalchish
              Kibalchish 28 January 2014 14: 20
              +2
              Remember the war of England and Argentina. In response to the landing on the Falklands, Britain didn’t for some reason mock me. about. on Buinos Ares, and sent a fleet.
              1. Onyx
                Onyx 28 January 2014 15: 39
                0
                Quote: Kibalchish
                Remember the war of England and Argentina. In response to the landing on the Falklands, Britain didn’t for some reason mock me. about. on Buinos Ares, and sent a fleet.

                We are talking about a situation where, by conventional forces, we cannot defend any of our territories. Then nuclear weapons should be used.
                1. Greenwood
                  Greenwood 29 January 2014 01: 36
                  +2
                  Quote: Onyx
                  about such a situation
                  This situation can be imagined in the event of a massive invasion of enemy troops on Russian territory. And the landing of the Japanese landing on the Kuril Islands is not a threat to the existence of the Russian state, and such border conflicts are resolved with conventional weapons. A vivid example is Daman or, as said above, the Falkland War. The inability of Russia, which seems to be claiming to be a power, to repel such a landing with conventional weapons is a shame on our army and leadership, but by no means a real reason for using nuclear weapons.
    2. apostrophe
      apostrophe 28 January 2014 10: 52
      +5
      Sometimes, after fukushima, it seems that their level of technology and production culture is too high.
      1. zyablik.olga
        zyablik.olga 28 January 2014 11: 25
        +5
        Quote: Apostrophe
        Sometimes, after fukushima, it seems that their level of technology and production culture is too high.

        Fukushima was built by the Americans in the 60's.
        1. Rebus
          Rebus 28 January 2014 14: 36
          +2
          Quote: zyablik.olga
          Fukushima was built by the Americans in the 60's.

          But, the Japanese could modernize the station in Fukushima many times and in the 80s and even in the 2000s, or even completely shut down. Not only Americans are to blame for the accident, but the Japanese themselves ...
          1. The comment was deleted.
          2. matross
            matross 28 January 2014 18: 57
            +1
            Quote: Rebus
            Not only Americans are to blame for the accident, but the Japanese themselves ...

            Americans, of course, kozl, but what do they have to do with it? The station staff is to blame, at the first sign of an accident, scattering in a scattering, instead of heroic actions to minimize the impending .ope! This is not Chernobyl, the samurai chopped completely!
    3. Tiamat2702
      Tiamat2702 28 January 2014 15: 50
      +1
      Yes, but do not forget that Japan does not have a resource base, while China has a pretty good resource base. And, as you have already noticed, for China there is no limit in manpower.
      1. Greenwood
        Greenwood 29 January 2014 01: 37
        +2
        And what, it greatly prevented the Japanese from arranging a total exterminatus to China 70 years ago?
    4. The comment was deleted.
  4. Old scoop
    Old scoop 28 January 2014 08: 42
    +7
    I think Japan is very confused by the economic and military development of China. And not only Japan ...
  5. calocha
    calocha 28 January 2014 08: 45
    +3
    The Chinese remember everything and will also be reminded of the Nanjing massacre and other feats of the samurai. The question is when, and then what will be beyond doubt ...
    1. Greenwood
      Greenwood 28 January 2014 08: 53
      +6
      Tell me, did the Chinese ever defeat anyone? They even from Vietnam, weakened by a 10-year war, got lyuley at the very reluctance. And the Japanese have been playing the Chinese playfully all their lives. The Chinese are good traders, but no warriors of them. The mentality feature.
      1. RUSS
        RUSS 28 January 2014 09: 46
        +2
        The Vietnamese were not weakened by the war, on the contrary, they were "fired" professionals, but the Indians were bent over in the border conflict. And the main victory of the Chinese was during the civil war, when the Reds won, united the country (Tibet, Xin-Jiang, etc.) and threw the Kuomintang into Taiwan. Hong Kong and Macau were peacefully returned, Taiwan is next in line, and with it, it is likely that the first military conflict of the Chinese in the 21st century will be.
      2. calocha
        calocha 28 January 2014 10: 54
        +4
        They won, don’t hesitate !!! Bears ride the circus on motorbikes .. The Chinese were poor, but now they are ahead of the whole planet! Rockets out of 10 missiles launch ... Men are born more than women ... And they are not stupid ... We ourselves need to keep our eyes open.
      3. Urus
        Urus 28 January 2014 22: 14
        0
        KASHGAR, INTERNAL MONGOLIA, TIBET — conquered — and overcooked, lands !! ancient and serious — adversary!
    2. RUSS
      RUSS 28 January 2014 09: 40
      +1
      Quote: calocha
      The Chinese remember everything and will also be reminded of the Nanjing massacre and other feats of the samurai. The question is when, and then what will be beyond doubt ...


      The Chinese remember a lot and have a grudge against a dozen countries, but they are pragmatists, revenge is not a fundamental policy for them. The main thing for the Chinese is resources. The same rocks and islets did not surrender to them as such, but the marine resources around them are another matter.
    3. Urus
      Urus 28 January 2014 22: 08
      0
      Everyone remembers, the Chinese !! and I don't want opium, and from childhood they remember it !! Serious-enemy !! but in general, China-aimed-at-Central Asia. Chinese Central Asia-sounds-normal
  6. Asgard
    Asgard 28 January 2014 08: 46
    +5
    Probably the fact that Japan is arming itself (on the eve of the WAR)) is still not bad, the more nations with a "gun" the more cautious the bandits (parasites)))
    Here I would welcome such a development of events ....

    The author is wrong, only in one .... That China must maintain friendly neutrality ...
    Let me remind YOU, the situation, on the eve of World War II, We supported "friendly neutrality" with Germany, the Anglo-Saxons concluded the "Munich Pact" with the Germans .... the Russians (under tracing paper)) concluded a similar agreement .....
    Only now, NOBODY observes the "agreement" when the firing begins, but the impetus may be some kind of "principle" ... well, for example, Gavrilo Principle who shot Ferdinand in Sarajevo and the First World War began ...

    And interestingly, a few hours after the shots, HE WAS DEAD .... like militants who (supposedly))) blew up a bus in Stalingrad .....
    No one draws parallels ....... A Pity.

    And everyone has one goal (in all wars)) to kill People (Slavs)) as much as possible ....
    and the War has already begun, it is still sluggish, network-centric, and if someone thinks that the militants in Syria, China, Japan, etc., etc., arm themselves at will (he is naive))) EVERYONE IS ARMED FROM ONE "CENTER" ....

    The task of people to prevent a global war with biorobots (us army, chinese, japanese)))
    We will win (once again)) .... but at what cost.
    Given the historical experience (that they are trying to erase us))) we must not allow the fighting on the planet .....
  7. svskor80
    svskor80 28 January 2014 08: 50
    +3
    The main thing is not to get involved in the conflict on any side, but to competently defend your interests over the confrontation. If such a conflict does not happen, there will be no quick victory, but for a long time there will be butts with chinas butt.
  8. borisjdin1957
    borisjdin1957 28 January 2014 08: 50
    +2
    Don
    With the strengthening of the KNDA, the samurai squirmed and seek to conclude a peace treaty with us. Something had not been in such a hurry before. Well, there’s no hurry for us. Wait, your mother! smile
  9. Nayhas
    Nayhas 28 January 2014 08: 50
    +5
    The situation in the Asia-Pacific region is interesting. The United States creates a coalition against China, but this coalition is not quite stable. South Korea (or RK), Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and Australia, these are the countries that the United States is trying to oppose to China. But the Republic of Kazakhstan has claims to Japan no less than to China, the past cannot be changed, and Japan’s attitude to past crimes is quite provocative, no remorse. But the place of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the anti-Chinese coalition is very important, it has a strong fleet and a powerful economy, and American bases in the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan. If China is not stupid, then the main task should be the withdrawal of Kazakhstan from the US-created coalition, at least to make it neutral. China has the power to change the situation in the DPRK, you just need to remove the Kim family, put an obedient government in power and begin economic reforms in the style of Uncle Dan. Abandon nuclear weapons, eliminate ballistic missiles under the supervision of a UN commission or someone else, start the process of negotiations on the unification of Korea under the patronage of China. It will be a blow to the United States, then their bases in the Republic of Kazakhstan simply will not make sense, missile defense systems as well. Korea will definitely become an ally of China, replacing the vector with the United States ...
    China and the Republic of Kazakhstan are united by a negative attitude towards Japan’s position regarding war crimes in World War II.
  10. Clegg
    Clegg 28 January 2014 09: 16
    +3
    My sympathies are on the side of Japan
    1. Greenwood
      Greenwood 28 January 2014 09: 43
      +3
      Regardless of politics, I treat both China and Japan well, but the Japanese culture is more interesting to me. And their language is much easier to learn compared to Chinese.
    2. RUSS
      RUSS 28 January 2014 09: 49
      0
      Quote: Clegg
      My sympathies are on the side of Japan


      Because of the Uighurs?
      1. Clegg
        Clegg 28 January 2014 12: 34
        +2
        Quote: RUSS
        Because of the Uighurs?

        no, in the Sino-Uyghur conflict I am neutral.
        1. Kibalchish
          Kibalchish 28 January 2014 13: 34
          -3
          Also for Japan. The Japanese relate to the Russians better than the Chinese.

          (formally, it is now an empire, since the emperor of Japan is “a symbol of the state and unity of the people”)

          The author has argued nonsense. Under the 1947 Constitution of the year, Japan is not an empire, and even this word has disappeared from the name of the country. Facts must be checked before writing this.
          1. alone
            alone 28 January 2014 22: 43
            -1
            The Emperor in Japan remained as a symbol. Power in the hands of the Prime Minister
  11. Saburo
    Saburo 28 January 2014 10: 34
    +4
    By the way, here is some interesting news: http://lenta.ru/news/2014/01/27/plutonium/

    In short, the United States realized that at one time it had sent weapons-grade plutonium to Japan for "peaceful research", and now they want it back.
    In general, the author should have noted that Japan, thanks to the highest level of technological development, can very quickly become the owner of nuclear weapons. And not necessarily in an open form, but rather like Israel. And besides, they can create a weak nuclear triad almost immediately.
    1. RUSS
      RUSS 28 January 2014 10: 39
      +3
      Quote: Saburo
      By the way, here is some interesting news: http://lenta.ru/news/2014/01/27/plutonium/

      In short, the United States realized that at one time it had sent weapons-grade plutonium to Japan for "peaceful research", and now they want it back.
      In general, the author should have noted that Japan, thanks to the highest level of technological development, can very quickly become the owner of nuclear weapons. And not necessarily in an open form, but rather like Israel. And besides, they can create a weak nuclear triad almost immediately.


      Saburo-Based on your profile picture, you will be happy with atomic weapons from Japan.
      1. Saburo
        Saburo 28 January 2014 13: 52
        0
        Well, I definitely won't cry. Of course, it would be nice if such a "rising from its knees" Japan was friendly to us. But this primarily depends on us.
    2. Assistant
      Assistant 29 January 2014 01: 24
      0
      And besides, they can create a weak nuclear triad almost immediately.


      Well, sort of like technology allows. But if, in the event of the advent of the polar fox, especially successful Russians will be able to take refuge in the taiga (for example, Old Believers), just as successful Americans will be in the forests and prairies (hello to the new Chingachguk), will there be at least one suitable place on the Japanese islands? And if the Russians and the Americans suggest a potential survival (with a certain degree of probability) in some parts of their citizens in remote areas, will the Japanese be ready to risk all their fellow citizens?
  12. Bigship
    Bigship 28 January 2014 10: 42
    +3
    Most likely, this situation will push Japan towards rapprochement with Russia. Moreover, Russia should derive maximum benefit from all this. Force to sign a peace treaty without claims on the islands.
    In general, Russia for Japan is the promised land. When a large earthquake happens (and sooner or later it happens) and hides Japan under water, the only place where they can be sheltered is in Russia.
    1. Greenwood
      Greenwood 28 January 2014 11: 00
      +2
      Those. all 120 million Japanese will move to Russia? Hmm, I can hardly imagine how it will look.
      1. Platov
        Platov 28 January 2014 13: 15
        0
        "So, all 120 million Japanese will move to Russia?" The miserable remnants and central Siberia will move to live in Russia together with Koreans.
    2. RUSS
      RUSS 28 January 2014 11: 04
      +2
      Quote: BigShip
      Most likely, this situation will push Japan towards rapprochement with Russia. Moreover, Russia should derive maximum benefit from all this. Force to sign a peace treaty without claims on the islands.
      In general, Russia for Japan is the promised land. When a large earthquake happens (and sooner or later it happens) and hides Japan under water, the only place where they can be sheltered is in Russia.


      Personally, I am not ready for such "guests", let their owners shelter, somewhere in Alaska, the land has a lot of population and is small.
      1. zyablik.olga
        zyablik.olga 28 January 2014 11: 11
        +4
        Of course, nobody waits for them in the Far East, but for me the Japanese are better off than the Chinese
        1. RUSS
          RUSS 28 January 2014 11: 39
          +4
          Quote: zyablik.olga
          Of course, nobody waits for them in the Far East, but for me the Japanese are better off than the Chinese


          And I’m better in the Far East, especially in Primorye, Russians, Ukrainians,
          Nanai, Udege, Orochi, Ulchi, Nivkh, Negidal.
          1. Greenwood
            Greenwood 28 January 2014 11: 59
            +4
            In fact, the Japanese prisoners lived quite well in the Khabarovsk Territory in the 40-50s after the war. So, in principle, there will be fewer problems with them than with guests from the Caucasus and Central Asia. True, the Russian ethnic group in the Far East will quickly dissolve in Japanese.
    3. alex-s
      alex-s 28 January 2014 12: 46
      +1
      Well, let's create a Japanese autonomous republic in the Kuril Islands laughing
      1. Aleksey_K
        Aleksey_K 28 January 2014 13: 41
        +1
        Let there be no Kuril Islands, no Sakhalin, Vladivostok and Kamchatka. How do you think everything is strange. As if earthquakes capable of destroying Japan act like a nail that is driven into a wall. The whole region will be destroyed. And if several thousand Japanese survive, they themselves will proclaim a new Japan in an empty place from the Russians. We will not be up to them. Because such disasters affect entire continents. The destruction in Russia will be terrible.
    4. Aleksey_K
      Aleksey_K 28 January 2014 13: 34
      0
      If there are earthquakes that destroy Japan, then no one will accept the surviving Japanese. Vladivostok and the entire coast, the Kuril Islands, Sakhalin and Kamchatka will also be destroyed. Because This is a single seismic zone with a huge number of active volcanoes. Russia will not be up to the Japanese, and there will be only a few thousand.
      1. alex-s
        alex-s 28 January 2014 13: 44
        +1
        Damn, I have to attach the Japs in the Urals!
    5. Saburo
      Saburo 28 January 2014 13: 42
      +3
      Open the world map and look at Russia, then at Japan, then again at Russia. Now estimate how many Japanese archipelagos can be placed in Russia. And at the same time, about as many people live in Japan as in Russia.

      But seriously, the Japanese are much more preferable than the Chinese or Koreans. Read, for example, about the development of South Sakhalin by the Japanese.
  13. Standard Oil
    Standard Oil 28 January 2014 11: 07
    -1
    As for me, let them devour each other, the Chinese, the Japanese, the Koreans, whoever else is there. Although apparently China will win anyway, how many of those Japanese? 160 million, and the Chinese have only one prepared and trained reserve of 100 million, they also have all sorts of gadgets in the form of the Navy and Air Force, the Chinese will sweep the Japanese away, they won't even have time to shout out Banzai and no Americans will help, Chinese generals and admirals won't even be smart it is necessary, for the fleet, it is enough just to provide a corridor for transports with people and equipment, aviation to gain air supremacy, which is quite possible for the Chinese, South Korea will not interfere, because most likely it will not be up to the Japanese to grapple with North Korea, but the Chinese will not be able to seize the bridgehead , to gain a foothold on it, fill it with all sorts of air defense systems and anti-aircraft missiles and all Japan's skiff, and given the good historical memory of the Chinese, Japanese girls should make themselves hara-kiri immediately without waiting for revenge for the atrocities of the Japanese in China. By the way, in addition to the main bridgehead, you can also fill Japan with Chinese paratroopers throwing them here and there from the air or landing from the sea + also throw a bunch of sabotage and reconnaissancegroups, the benefit of all kinds of special forces, the Chinese are full. I do not even know what other than screaming for help Japan will be doing all this time. But will the Americans get into the war for the sake of the "yellow monkeys"? Or will NATO go to the other end of the world? brainless Poles or stoned Balts may go, but this is not even a needle against a steam roller, but a worm against a planetoid.
    1. Greenwood
      Greenwood 28 January 2014 12: 10
      -1
      Hmm, the philanthropy and friendship of peoples from you and rushing.
      1. Standard Oil
        Standard Oil 28 January 2014 12: 49
        0
        In vain you are so, I am for "World Peace". request
      2. The comment was deleted.
  14. zyablik.olga
    zyablik.olga 28 January 2014 11: 09
    +6
    Quote: jon111
    The cost of gasoline 95 36.00 R. and above, DT 37.00р.,

    In the BAM settlements the cost of a liter has long passed for 45 rubles.
  15. ZU-23
    ZU-23 28 January 2014 11: 09
    +3
    When China goes to Japan, it’s not a pity, although there are nuances at the expense of Kunashir and Iturup, we will see how the Chinese sing at the expense of these islands, but if they start looking at Kazakhstan and Mongolia, then our children or grandchildren will have to think about it.
  16. Roman 1977
    Roman 1977 28 January 2014 11: 41
    0
    Let's try to calculate:
    Japanese Navy:
    16 diesel-electric submarines (5 newest Soryu type, 11 Oyashio type)

    Diesel-electric submarines of the "Soryu" type
    2 helicopter carriers of the "Hyuga" type, carry 4 helicopters, can be used as ASW ships and for landing purposes;

    39 destroyers (2 Atago types, 4 Congo types, 2 Shirane-type helicopter destroyers, 2 Hatakaze types, 2 Akitsuki types, 5 Takanami types, 9 Murasame types, 8 types "Asagiri", type 5 "Hatsuyuki", some sources qualify as frigates);
    6 frigates of the "Abakuma" type;
    3 UDC type "Osumi";
    29 minesweepers;
    For training purposes, two Oyashio-class diesel-electric submarines and three Hatsuyuki-class destroyers are used.
    In the Air Force of the Navy: 93 R-3 Orion aircraft (80-variant PLO), 2 state-of-the-art Kawasaki P-1 PLO aircraft, 22 seaplanes, 97 Mitsubishi SH-60 anti-submarine helicopters, 10 CH-53E Super Stallion minesweeping helicopters, 7 multipurpose helicopters
    AgustaWestland AW101

    Japanese Air Force- 353 aircraft
    75 (12 UBS F-2В) Mitsubishi F-2 fighters, Japanese development on the 6ase F-16;

    198 (45 UBS F-15DJ) F-15J Eagle F-15 fighters manufactured in Japan under license;

    80 F-4 Phantom II, various modifications. To replace them, it is planned to purchase 42 F-35 Lightning II
    17 AWACS aircraft (4 Boeing E-767, 13 E-2C Hawkeye)
    4 Boeing KC-767J refueling aircraft.
    I do not yet take the ground forces, since the rivalry takes place at sea and in the air.
    1. Roman 1977
      Roman 1977 28 January 2014 11: 44
      0
      Chinese Navy:
      1 Liaoning-class aircraft carrier;
      6 SSBN (5 Type 094 Jin, 1 Type 092 Xia);
      7 nuclear submarines (4 Type 093 "Shang", 3 Type 091 "Han")

      Submarine Type 093 "Shan"
      56 diesel-electric submarines (12 Type 041 "Yuan", 13 Type 039 "Song", 12 project 636, 17 Type 035 Ming-kip of our project 633, are being removed from service, 1 experimental diesel-electric submarine Type 032 Qing, 1 experimental missile diesel-electric submarine of project 629);
      23 destroyers: (6 Type 052C, 2 Type 052B, 2 Type 051C "Liuhu", 1 Type 051B "Liuhai", 4 projects 956E, 1 Type 052 "Liuhu", 7 Type 051 "Luyda" - obsolete ships without air defense systems, but armed with 6 anti-ship missiles);

      destroyer Type 052C
      46 frigates (16 Type 054A "Dzhangai 2", 2 Type 054 "Dzhangai 1", 10 Type 053H3 "Jangway 2", 4 Type 053H2G "Jangway 1", 13 Type 053 "Janghu" - obsolete ships, without air defense systems, armed with anti-ship missiles , are removed from service);
      9 corvettes Type 056;

      122 RCA;
      119 minesweepers;
      231 patrol ships and boats.
      Landing forces:
      3 UDC Type 071 Yuzhao

      92 landing craft.
      Air Force Fleet-245 Combat Aircraft:
      14 heavy bombers H-6, clone Tu-16,
      20 J-10 fighters,
      23 Su-30MK2,
      24 J-11 is a Chinese clone of Su-27,
      16 carrier-based fighter J-15- clone Su-33,
      35 JH-7 bombers,
      48 J-8 fighters,
      35 fighter J-7-Chinese heavily upgraded clone MiG-21,
      30 light Q-5 bombers, created on the basis of the MiG-19, there is no radar, and do not have the ability to carry SD.
      8 AWACS KJ-200, 9 AWACS Ka-31.
      3 BPS based on the Chinese version of An-12, 4 patrol seaplane SH-5
      1. Roman 1977
        Roman 1977 28 January 2014 11: 47
        +2
        China Air Force 1276 Combat Aircraft:
        120 heavy bombers H-6-clone Tu-16,

        76 Su-27 fighters,
        99 Су-30МКК/МК2 (76/23),
        200 J-10 fighters,

        140 J-11 is a Chinese clone of Su-27,

        72 bomber JH-7,

        180 J-8 fighters,

        389 fighter J-7-Chinese heavily upgraded clone MiG-21,
        240 light Q-5 bombers, created on the basis of the MiG-19, there is no radar, and do not have the ability to carry SD.
        5 Aircraft AWACS KJ-2000 based on IL-76, 7 Aircraft AWACS KJ-200 based on the Chinese clone An-12
        8 tanker aircraft IL-78, 10 HY-6-based heavy bomber H-6.
        Thus: Japan surpasses China only in the number of destroyers, but the Japanese have nothing to oppose the Chinese aircraft carrier and especially the nuclear submarines with their unlimited range. At the same time, China has an overwhelming advantage in ships such as the RCA (122), which allow you to strike at Japanese ships. The large number of landing ships in the Chinese Navy makes it easy to carry out landing operations on the islands. The advantage in combat aircraft is 4,3 to 1 in favor of China (1276 Chinese versus 353 Japanese), with approximate qualitative equality. The Japanese also have no advantages in AWACS (20 Chinese versus 17 Japanese). In addition, the operation of China against Japan will enjoy the support of countries in the region not only of China-DPRK's ally, but also of South Korea, which has territorial disputes with Japan over the Dokdo Islands and even Taiwan, where the Japanese atrocities during World War II were not forgotten .
        1. Kibalchish
          Kibalchish 28 January 2014 14: 03
          +1
          Even in the most optimistic scenario, the Chinese will not be able to throw all this into battle. Something will need to be kept in other places.
  17. Ram chandra
    Ram chandra 28 January 2014 11: 59
    -1
    This is the author painted! All in essence - without excess water - only facts, only hardcore!
    Do not compare with others.
    Of course, most of us support the Japanese - we enjoy their culture, understandable, at least. On the contrary, China with its babies-eaters is frighteningly incomprehensible and causes rejection.
    But - there are no friends in politics. You must always adhere to the rule - divide and conquer. In the event of a conflict, the weakest should evoke sympathy - for the strongest, after a victory - can turn his eyes to us.
  18. RUSS
    RUSS 28 January 2014 12: 34
    -4
    There were alarmists afraid of threats from Japan, well, if Japan is considered a serious adversary, then who is India, China for you and not to mention the USA?
    1. Maxsh
      Maxsh 28 January 2014 12: 46
      +5
      Quote: RUSS
      There are alarmists fearing threats from Japan
      It seems that before the Russo-Japanese War they also used to say ... It’s not in Japan, but who is behind it and what goals it sets.
      1. RUSS
        RUSS 28 January 2014 13: 08
        -1
        Quote: Maxsh
        Quote: RUSS
        There are alarmists fearing threats from Japan
        It seems that before the Russo-Japanese War they also used to say ... It’s not in Japan, but who is behind it and what goals it sets.


        There is no need to delve into the history of a century ago, the realities are different now. Remember how the Japanese were "snitched" on Khasan and Khalkhin-gol in the 39th, in the spring and summer of 45 in Manchuria, landing on the Kuril Islands.
        1. Greenwood
          Greenwood 29 January 2014 01: 41
          +2
          Quote: RUSS
          on Hassan and on Khalkhin-gol in the 39th, spring and summer of the 45th in Manchuria, landing in the Kuril Islands.
          Yeah, and remember at the same time that modern Russia with a dilapidated industry, a "reformed" army and corrupt officials is in no way the Stalinist USSR of the 1940s. Our country is now much more like the Russian empire of the early 20th century, many problems are similar. And the shapkozakidatelstvo is the same, to which it led in 1904, I don’t need to remind you.
        2. Alex_Popovson
          Alex_Popovson 31 January 2014 08: 54
          0
          Here let’s do it without hatred statements. In 1904, R.I. there were all trump cards, but in the end Saint Nicholas screwed up in full.
  19. tnship2
    tnship2 28 January 2014 13: 05
    +2
    A very dangerous misconception. Everyone who claims a SPECIAL PLACE IN THE WORLD will receive it as a result. The truth is then they wash their underpants for a long time. There are no special or more special ones in this world.
  20. iulai
    iulai 28 January 2014 13: 20
    +1
    The main enemy for Russia is China! There are two ways to ensure the safety of the Far East 1. Move the capital to the Urals. 2. To conclude a military agreement on cooperation with Japan, and how, this is a matter of diplomacy.
  21. Aleksey_K
    Aleksey_K 28 January 2014 13: 55
    -5
    History has shown that fighting on two fronts is almost impossible, fighting for a long time at a great distance from one’s territory is very difficult.
    Conclusions:
    1. China is waiting for the United States to be deeply bogged down in some kind of local conflict in the Mediterranean or the Atlantic. As soon as this happens, the conquest of Japan by China will immediately begin. America will not be up to Japan. 1,4 billion Chinese will simply destroy 127,3 million Japanese;
    2. Having achieved success in the Japanese campaign, China will attack the Russian Far East, with the expectation that humane Russians will not use nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction.
    3. China is our enemy No. 1. We have nothing to oppose 400 million Chinese army with except weapons of mass destruction. But this weapon is dangerous for us. We live in infected areas.
    1. Kibalchish
      Kibalchish 28 January 2014 14: 05
      -1
      Therefore, we must now unite with the enemies of China.
    2. Setrac
      Setrac 28 January 2014 16: 30
      +1
      Quote: Алексей_К
      We have nothing to oppose 400 million. Chinese army

      laughing we contrast 400 million shells in long-term storage warehouses. You do not mind that before that neither Japan nor China have mastered the northern territories? What is the matter, why suddenly now?
    3. Greenwood
      Greenwood 29 January 2014 01: 44
      +1
      Quote: Алексей_К
      Atlantic
      And what local conflicts are now happening in the Atlantic?
      Quote: Алексей_К
      immediately the conquest of Japan by China begins. America will not be up to Japan. 1,4 billion Chinese will simply destroy 127,3 million Japanese;
      In the late 1930s, there were also ten times fewer Japanese than Chinese, but that did not stop Japan from making China its colony, and not vice versa. Of the Chinese, their entire millennia-old history was worthless warriors, I doubt that something has changed.
  22. RUSS
    RUSS 28 January 2014 14: 05
    +2
    Why burn China into enemies? The fact that China is not a friend to us is a fact, but not an enemy, perhaps a potential adversary, but such opponents are more than one NATO worth. China is more interested in the south of the Asia-Pacific region, there are smoldering border conflicts with India, shading across the territories to Taiwan, India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Japan, Indonesia, Mongolia. China will have enough primacy in the Pacific, plus China goes to Africa and LatAmerica. No matter how hard he gets on his head, let alone Russia.
  23. Leshka
    Leshka 28 January 2014 14: 12
    -1
    probably try to create a new island empire
  24. samoletil18
    samoletil18 28 January 2014 14: 57
    +3
    it is necessary to turn the Far East and Siberia into a "locomotive of development" throughout Russia.

    Here is the main difficulty
  25. yehat
    yehat 28 January 2014 15: 28
    +3
    You should not think that China really needs Siberia. The Chinese really do not like living in the north. They need resources. If they will be sold, no problem. China is much more dangerous in the former Soviet Union republics. After the annexation of Shinjiang, China has been actively engaged in infiltration.
    Honestly, I don’t understand why ours in Shinjiang are not engaged in counter-influence in order to neutralize expansion. After all, after some time, China will simply end assimilation and gain a foothold.

    about the transfer of forces of China against Japan.
    Most of the above is just ballast, which has little effect on anything.
    Short-range aviation in the war with Japan will not be trivial, and if it is thrown back, then China has a slight advantage in heavy aircraft, but it is inferior in terms of technology. And if we take into account the US air base, radars and air defense of the Japanese fleet, we can say that aviation will not play a decisive role.
    China's fleet is also somewhat inflated. If you discard completely useless, morally obsolete and coastal ships, then now the Japanese are not inferior to China. But over time, the situation may change in favor of China.
    China has enough funds for self-defense from Japan, but it is not enough for offensive operations.
  26. Achtaba1970
    Achtaba1970 28 January 2014 15: 45
    -1
    Quote: Алексей_К
    History has shown that fighting on two fronts is almost impossible, fighting for a long time at a great distance from one’s territory is very difficult.
    Conclusions:
    1. China is waiting for the United States to be deeply bogged down in some kind of local conflict in the Mediterranean or the Atlantic. As soon as this happens, the conquest of Japan by China will immediately begin. America will not be up to Japan. 1,4 billion Chinese will simply destroy 127,3 million Japanese;
    2. Having achieved success in the Japanese campaign, China will attack the Russian Far East, with the expectation that humane Russians will not use nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction.
    3. China is our enemy No. 1. We have nothing to oppose 400 million Chinese army with except weapons of mass destruction. But this weapon is dangerous for us. We live in infected areas.

    But it is not necessary to deliver nuclear strikes on its territory, it is necessary on the industrial regions of China.
    1. Ingvar 72
      Ingvar 72 28 January 2014 16: 00
      +1
      Quote: Achtuba1970
      But it is not necessary to deliver nuclear strikes on its territory, it is necessary on the industrial regions of China.

      They will answer in the central regions of Russia. The only option, for all its sadness, is to strike a TNW against the advancing troops. Those. in its territory hi .
      1. Setrac
        Setrac 28 January 2014 16: 33
        +1
        Quote: Ingvar 72
        They will answer in the central regions of Russia. The only option, for all its sadness, is to strike a TNW against the advancing troops. Those. in its territory

        You can answer TNW in the border areas of China.
        1. SV
          SV 29 January 2014 20: 18
          0
          Look at the wind rose, hypothetically in case of war, a nuclear strike by the Russian Federation on the border regions of China will lead to the actual loss of a significant part of the celestial territories ...
  27. yehat
    yehat 28 January 2014 15: 52
    +1
    all this is demagogy about the 400 million army of China.
    an army, to attack, must be fed, armed and transported, which is impossible with such a number. Another thing is much more unpleasant - even if the army is "only" 2 million, China is capable of
    fully provide the expeditionary force with such a strength. Remember the group in East Germany and what could it do? Now China can create the same thing.
    1. Aleksey_K
      Aleksey_K 28 January 2014 20: 44
      +1
      Our Western group of forces was able to reach the Atlantic in 3 days. Europe could not even mobilize its population. You can’t imagine how terrible and lightning-fast the strike of this group would be with the simultaneous strike of all tanks, planes, helicopters, missile divisions, artillery and the Navy. We were only held back by a retaliatory nuclear strike from across the ocean and from England.
      By the way, the modern US strategy in local conflicts is built in the same way. As the Germans said - Onslaught to the East.
      And China, read more about China, is capable of arming, of course not instantly, an army of 400 million, and making up for losses in men and weapons. No "Grads" and similar systems can stop the movement of these locusts. There won't be enough shells. Only nuclear weapons can prevent aggression from China.
  28. Tiamat2702
    Tiamat2702 28 January 2014 16: 02
    0
    Quote: PLATOV
    "So, all 120 million Japanese will move to Russia?" The miserable remnants and central Siberia will move to live in Russia together with Koreans.

    Such a country will be called Yapossia, and it will have 260 million people)))))
  29. yehat
    yehat 28 January 2014 16: 28
    0
    The country will be Rosponia)))
  30. delfinN
    delfinN 28 January 2014 18: 05
    +1
    We need a quiet development at least until the 25th year. Therefore, we need to maintain good neighborly relations with both of them. I remember Uncle Vova said (and others before him) that we need 20 years of quiet development. We will give away gifts after each sister to earring (deserving).
  31. Saburo
    Saburo 28 January 2014 18: 09
    0
    Another news in the topic: http://lenta.ru/news/2014/01/28/instructions/

    Pay attention to the last paragraph.
  32. voliador
    voliador 28 January 2014 18: 16
    0
    Samurai smell that fried smell. The Chinese have a big tooth on them!
  33. uzer 13
    uzer 13 28 January 2014 19: 07
    0
    The Japanese have a strange memory. They remember the islands of the Kuril archipelago well and wouldn’t refuse to have them. But they forgot about the crimes of the Japanese military in China and Korea and the massacres of the civilian population and don’t want to remember. are they friends to us? The peace treaty has not yet been signed.
    1. Greenwood
      Greenwood 29 January 2014 01: 49
      +1
      There are no friends in politics; there are only own interests. And at the household level, the Japanese are well disposed towards Russia.
  34. mechanic driver
    mechanic driver 28 January 2014 19: 49
    +2
    Quote: Setrac
    Quote: Don
    I've found other data, 27-29 thousand rubles.

    You need to work for such a salary, but for 12-15 thousand you can wipe your pants in the office.


    You’ve probably taken the official data about 27-29, And about work like that, the whole thing is right, These are those who wipe 29 trousers in offices, and barely reach 15 by hard workers.
    1. Greenwood
      Greenwood 29 January 2014 01: 50
      0
      I confirm 100%. And even sn in 29 pieces in Vladivostok is not enough for a normal life.
  35. Puffed up
    Puffed up 28 January 2014 19: 53
    -2
    In superstition, we abide now. The war is already going on. The adversaries are arming themselves and are moving to the land while ours. And while we are still in spiritual corruption then. The adversaries then see this and gain strength now. And here we have kikimory and goblin, together with dwarfs, then rage and rage. Yes games in the swamp do. It is necessary to pray that the ax of God passed us then. And then the Lord will deprive us of Siberia and the Far East for sins.
    PS Birch firewood is good in frost. Warm it well!
    1. Rattenfanger
      Rattenfanger 28 January 2014 19: 58
      +4
      Hemp is rich this year that it is?
  36. Aleksey_K
    Aleksey_K 28 January 2014 21: 07
    -3
    Pointing out that China is our enemy No. 1, but only if the United States gets bogged down in a local conflict far from China.

    Now a new, continental, enemy close to us is being reborn - this is Germany. And this is the main ENEMY. I wrote in comments to other articles that the 4 Reich is objecting. Germany is developing very much, but its army is still small, but no one knows its mobilization plans for deploying industry and the army on a war footing. The German people, in whose blood there is a Slavic spirit, are steadfast in deprivation, disciplined and do not give up in battle, beating to the last drop of blood. Germany is still humiliated by its defeats and this is felt and experienced by new youth. She does not know what war is, but advancing to the East, she will gain combat experience. Poland, Belarus and the Baltic states are not an obstacle for Germany. The experience of the 2 World War showed that a large-scale troop transfer of several thousand kilometers. on European roads is possible in a few days.

    I’ll add, no one knows what they are developing, no one knows what the scientific and technical potential of the Germans in the 30 and 40 years is capable of. Believe me, they are very smart, smarter than Jews. And their technique was superior to Soviet, American, and English combined!
  37. tuts
    tuts 28 January 2014 21: 57
    +2
    A little off topic, but like smile
    M16 - Wedges when dirty
    AK47 - Works when dirty
    Trehlineyka - It has not been clean since the moment of issuance to the troops in 1892

    M16 - Hundreds of moving parts held together by dozens of bolts and screws
    AK47 - A pair of dozens of moving parts held by a handful of rivets.
    Trilinek - three moving parts, two screws.

    M16 - You would rather die than decide to smash your expensive rifle in hand-to-hand combat
    AK47 - your assault rifle can beat you well in hand-to-hand combat
    Three-ruler - Your rifle is a cool spear with the ability to shoot

    M16 - If the firing pin breaks, you send the rifle to the factory under warranty
    AK47 - If the hammer breaks, you insert a new one
    Three-line - If the hammer breaks, you spin it a couple of turns further into the shutter

    M16 - More difficult to manufacture than many aircraft
    AK47 - Used by countries that do not have money for airplanes
    Three-line - Aircraft shot down from it

    M16 - A plastic butt melts under a magnifying glass
    AK47 - Under the magnifying glass you can see the Vietnamese mud still working instead of grease
    Three-line - Under the magnifying glass you can see the impregnated tree BLOOD

    Owner's favorite drink
    M16 - Cognac
    AK47 - Vodka
    Three-line - Brake fluid drained from a frozen crowbar

    M16 - Makes a small hole, everything is neat, in accordance with the Geneva Convention
    AK47 - Makes a big hole, sometimes tears off limbs, does not comply with the Geneva Convention
    Three-line - One of the reasons for the creation of the Geneva Convention

    M16 - Perfectly shoots small rodents
    AK47 - Perfectly shoots enemies
    Trehlineyka - Excellent shoots light equipment

    M16 - Once in a river, it stops working
    AK47 - Once in the river, still shoots
    Three-line - Once in a river, usually used as a paddle

    M16 - Weapons for defense
    AK47 - Assault Weapons
    Trilinek - Victory Weapons!

    M16 - The grenade launcher is heavy, but can put a grenade in the window for 200 meters
    AK47 - If anything, the grenade from the grenade launcher can be thrown into the window with your hand
    Three-line - Grenade out the window? Hit through the wall, the cartridge pierces almost a meter of brick

    M16 - You can put a silencer, a small cartridge does not give a lot of sound
    AK47 - In principle, you can put a silencer, but it’s better just to press enemies to the ground with continuous fire
    Three-line - Nafig silencer, when after the first shot, everything will deafen in any way
  38. Stasi
    Stasi 29 January 2014 19: 05
    +1
    Japan is a country poor in natural resources, forced to depend heavily on their imports. High population density due to which there is a high demand for these same resources. China is a country with a population of XNUMX billion and an extremely high demand for natural resources. China is also very dependent on imports, especially food imports. It is not surprising that both countries became rivals for the resources of the Asia-Pacific region, each country wants to possess them individually and not to share with anyone. The growing power of Japan, as well as the militaristic mood of China, cannot leave Russia careless. While the Chinese and Japanese are looking at each other, they are not up to us. But no one can guarantee that in the event of a military conflict between them, someone will not try to snatch away part of the territory of Russia. It's good that Shoigu understands this, the threat from China and Japan is also on the list of threats to Russia.
  39. Pesnyadv
    Pesnyadv 30 January 2014 03: 07
    0
    Russia, Japan, China, Korea, USA ...
    Yes, there are contradictions.
    Yes, there is a chance of starting a war.

    But this is a very narrow view of the problems.
    It’s all one that treats a tweet, not syphilis!
    This is a cure, not a cure for tuberculosis!

    The eternal enemy of Russia is England.

    - Who convinced Napoleon to go to Russia? Who drove into his head that Russia is the enemy of France - England.
    - Who organized the Crimean military company against Russia - England. For this, she entered into an alliance with France, sworn by her rival.
    - England funded, armed Japan at the beginning of the 20th century.
    England shared with Japan the latest technology, helped build a modern navy.
    England organized provocations, armed conflicts, trying to ascribe this to Russia.
    The war between Russia and Japan took place, a humiliating treaty was signed, according to which Russia was losing its territory.
    Few people know that the envoy of Nicholas II was several hours late and did not manage to disrupt the signing of the agreement. Russian intelligence received information that Japan was ready to sign WITHOUT any territorial claims.
    - England armed Hitler, and then in violation of all his plans sent to the USSR.
    England gave Hitler THREE years for the war with the USSR and only then opened a second front.

    Now the USA is scaring Russia!
    - BUT this England was at the origins of the creation of the US Federal Reserve.
    it was England that was at the origins of the creation of US special services, which are aimed at 99% of Russia.
    - England proclaimed the creation of the Iron Curtain in front of the USSR.
    - England stirred up water in China, setting it against Russia.
    - Last year, documents were declassified that England was behind the numerous assassinations and murders of Rasputin. It was their agent who shot a mortal shot at Rasputin, who twice discouraged the Tsar from participating in the war. England did not like it. After the death of Rasputin, Russia entered the First World War ...
    - Who now provides protection and shelter for the enemies of Russia, fugitive thief oligarchs - ENGLAND!
    - In England, the beacon of shit democracy, until today there is NO CONSTITUTION !!! But they teach us democracy.

    I am sure that the methods of England have become more sophisticated, hidden, but the goal has not changed. The eternal war against Russia with the wrong hands is the real goal of England !!!
    England is behind all these wars and wars.