The scenario of the collapse of Ukraine may not be so fantastic
What could be the worst scenario for Ukraine in developing a crisis situation in the country? Do the European Union, the United States and Russia intervene? How will the Ukrainian army react? Newspaper VIEW attempted hypothetically to imagine how exactly events on the Maidan could lead, if not disintegration, then to the collapse of a state called Ukraine.
Warn immediately - this is a fantasy genre, close to anti-utopia. And I would very much like that, as described further, it did not happen. But sometimes it is useful to show both hotheads and romantics of every kind of revolution, how and how the carelessly started revolutions in patchwork countries that have not fully settled and firmly on their feet end. And where the transition from real events to fantasy begins - now depends only on the time of day and the choice that certain people make at the forks of political fate.
The situation at the moment does not inspire optimism. In Kiev, parliamentary opposition leaders have practically lost control even over Independence Square, not to mention the militants around it. "Trident" begins to reach the government quarter from the rear along Institutskaya Street. New groups of armed youth appear with unclear political views that seize government buildings and offices on Khreshchatyk, turning them into their headquarters. Barricades grow up around the occupied territory, in some places up to three meters high.
In Kiev, a certain parallel system of power, the so-called People’s is pleased, is announced, but it is not clear by whom and how it controls and what it seeks. The only intelligible slogan uniting all oppositionists and militants is the total resignation of all: the president, government, administration, city hall, the dissolution of parliament.
What is happening already a day in the province, especially in Galicia and Volyn, is certainly not controlled by the Kiev center of the opposition and, it seems, is not at all connected with the stated political slogans. Administrative buildings in Lviv, Ternopil, Rivne, Lutsk, Kovel, and Ivano-Frankivsk are seized by nationalist groups. The siege of authorities began in Chernivtsi and Zhytomyr. The attack on the executive branch in Cherkassy and Poltava is repelled only after the arrival of reinforcements.
The coup in Galicia begins to gain relief and scale. Armed groups are blocking the special division of the SBU "Griffin", which for some reason has chosen for itself the headquarters of a psycho-neurological dispensary. The next step is the armed blockade of the barracks in Lviv itself, as well as the air base in Stryi. Similar measures are being taken by nationalist groups against military units in Ivano-Frankivsk, Rivne and Ternopil. Earlier, on the orders of the government, a significant part of the officers from the garrison of Ivano-Frankivsk were transferred closer to the capital, which seemed justified a couple of days ago, and today it leads to loss of controllability of loyal units in Galicia. The only step to establish full control over most of the western regions remains the seizure of arsenals, which was already hinted at by Deutsche Welle.
The crowd is blocking government buildings in Chernivtsi. The leadership of Moldova and Romania miraculously responds to this, demanding security for the Romanian-speaking population. The Rusyn population of Transcarpathia yesterday, for some reason, turned to President Putin for help, ignoring the power in Kiev — apparently not believing in its capacity. It is possible that because of the Carpathians, this is exactly the way it seems. The Hungarian government, which last week bound itself with a series of economic treaties with Moscow, is silent. Yes, and the Hungarian national minority in Transcarpathia is beyond the threats of nationalists, among whom the slogans about the “European choice” are almost unheard of. More "Glory to the heroes!"
On the federal roads from Lviv, Rovno and Kovel, checkpoints were set up from aggressive nationalist-minded young people, which block movement including heavy trucks, which leads to local clashes with the police, in which the police are defeated due to the small number and lack of an order to use weapons. Transport communication with Europe and the western regions is practically interrupted.
The situation in Kiev remains borderline. There is no political rhetoric about the European Union for a long time. There is only “Golden Eagle” and militants. Negotiations of the “legal” opposition and the government are finally broken, and there is not even a hint that an agenda can be formed for a new meeting between Yanukovych and Klitschko. The President conducts several personnel castling at the Security Service of Ukraine and the Administration, freeing himself from ballast in the face of those who are hesitant or seen in close proximity to financial groups that provide the opposition. The embassies of Western countries in Kiev, although they are not in the conflict zone, are put under heavy guard, which, among other things, fixes everyone who goes in and out. This, however, does not prevent opposition leaders from receiving cash delivered by diplomatic mail for the purchase of supplies for the Maidan. Moreover, each visit by the leaders of the "legal opposition" of the Western embassies causes another escalation of violence in the center of Kiev.
The Russian embassy is silent like a fish on ice. The instructions coming from Moscow require complete "non-interference in internal affairs."
"Golden eagle" catastrophically tired. In total, there are four thousand special forces from different regions and about 20 thousand conscripts of internal troops and cadets in the capital. Shifts are eight hours. The soldiers and officers are extremely angry at all the Protestants, and not only at the right-wing militants. Despite the permission of the Minister of Internal Affairs to fire at a life threatening situation, they never received any ammunition. The temperature drops to –20. The soldiers are fed up by the Kievans, but the supply is still lagging, since the militants of the so-called auto-mobility group begin to block the roads to Kiev, especially from the western and southern sides. At the same time, the supply of various militant groups in the city center and in Podol is perfectly adjusted. From somewhere, gasoline and kerosene for “Molotov cocktails”, the winter camouflage form of the NATO sample, helmets, expensive tires, Turkish warmed tents for Maidan, gauze bandages, gas masks, food and water are formed by themselves.
The government does not have the right to use loyal military units, since no state of emergency has been formally introduced. Nevertheless, Chernigov’s second alarm was already raised. tank regiment (former Soviet tank training center) as the closest to the capital. Armored vehicles are ready to block the Brovary airport, but it is unclear why and why such an order can be given. Rumors are circulating among the officers that they are preparing to ensure Yanukovych’s flight from the country, and they don’t like it at all.
The information war reaches its climax, as the broadcasting of TV channels can be disrupted at any moment and people are increasingly beginning to feed on rumors. At the same time, the militants in Kiev coherently coordinate their actions through the Internet in general and social networks in particular. In the regions, an information vacuum is gradually formed, since government resources, as always in such situations, act inhibited, with an eye to orders and commands, do not take initiatives, which give the information space to the opposition, specially trained to conduct propaganda through electronic media and social networks. The key concept in this propaganda unexpectedly becomes “the right to revolt”, and this slogan is ingeniously derived from the Cossack past and the “right to rokosh”, which in fact belonged only to the gentry and destroyed Rzeczpospolita, but most of the details do not care.
The government remembers the regions when a third of them are already lost. Sessions of regional councils are urgently organized in the eastern regions and Podolia. They are starting to bring deputies to the Parliament to Kiev, which is quite difficult - many of them went abroad for holidays and are no longer eager to return. There is a lack of decisiveness. President Yanukovych’s environment has never been so strong in character, but in the past it only helped them, since the political line of the government itself has never been direct. These people are used to constantly maneuver: between the oligarchic groups, between the centers of influence, between Russia and the EU, in the end. Making a hard and harsh decision, whatever it may be, is beyond their power.
In Kharkov, Lugansk, Donetsk, Melitopol and Sumy, special forces take government buildings under protection. Local regional councils receive appeals in support of the president and the government. The spontaneous formation of detachments of warriors and loyal Cossacks begins.
The Parliament of Crimea unexpectedly and loudly adopts a decree on the independence of the Republic of Crimea. This is motivated by the de facto collapse of the country and the inability of the central government to ensure the safety of the population. The Crimean Tatar Mejlis supported the opposition a few days ago, and now it is hastily conducting mobilization. It turns out that the Tatar youth organization has long been very well armed. Nevertheless, the conflict in Crimea has not yet erupted on its own, since the opposing parties are equally afraid of the Russian marines. Command of the Russian Black Sea fleet He announces the alarm, although under bilateral agreements he has no right to do this without notifying the Ukrainian side in 48 hours.
Belarus closes the border, Poland - on the contrary, opens. Border guards disintegrated on the eyes. The control over Galicia and Volyn finally leaves the central government, and a few loyal military units in Western Ukraine are blocked by already armed militants. This is done simply and uncomplicated. At the gates of the military unit, a picket is installed, but on the contrary, a machine gun is demonstratively installed, since the nationalists already have no problems with weapons at this moment in time. Those military units, where the commanders left inadvertently came from the western regions, begin to cross over to the rebels, the rest are offered to disband or to hand over their weapons "for safekeeping".
The situation is further aggravated by rumors about columns of Russian tanks moving from Kursk to the Ukrainian border.
The Russian embassy remains silent.
The US Department of State begins consultations with Germany on “resolving the situation,” but at the same time tightens sanctions against Yanukovych and his circle. This tactic usual for Washington only pushes the central power into a corner. Meanwhile, some European politicians continue to arrive in Kiev for the moral support of the opposition, which only increases tensions.
Despite the fact that events in the regions are developing rapidly, the center of opposition is still located in the center of Kiev. The mood of the opposition is increasingly radicalized, they are gradually expanding the scope of control over the city blocks at the expense of the territories in which the Berkut cordons are set up - on Podol and, on the contrary, along the lanes adjacent to Khreshchatyk. In areas under the control of nationalists, pogroms and looting will begin. The government of Israel will protest and offer the Jews an urgent evacuation. Poland will have to do the same, albeit with a delay. Representatives of all religious denominations of Ukraine will make an appeal to end the violence, but somehow unconvincing, since much of the parish priests of the Greek Catholic persuasion will support the actions of nationalists, and the Catholic parishes of Galicia and Transcarpathia will ask for support from Poland and Hungary.
The most dangerous is the night time of the day, since electricity interruptions begin. The central government does not have enough internal forces to ensure the constant protection of strategic energy supply facilities. There is a threat of the collapse of the municipal system of the city, the movement of the metro along the red line is limited. The temperature drops to –25, the militants re-equip part of the captured buildings under the heating points and increase the rotation on the barricades. The soldiers have no such possibility. The state of emergency has not yet been introduced, since it is not possible to achieve a quorum in the Verkhovna Rada.
Technology provocative sniper shooting worked a decade ago. The most important thing is to podgadat shots under the greatest noise effect, which is created by both opposing sides. The militants are “Molotov cocktails” and explosives, the soldiers are stun grenades. In such a hubbub to hear the shot itself, and even more so to determine where it was made from, is impossible. According to the events in Romania, the psychological effect of this kind of shooting is also known: those who have weapons start to shoot up randomly, instinctively realizing that snipers are on the roof. The rest turn into a completely uncontrollable crowd.
And by this moment it does not matter who and at what point the first of the nationalist groups decides to use this tactic. Shots will be distributed from the roofs somewhere around three or four in the morning, knocking out five or six people from the crowd for a salvo. Chaos will begin immediately. The Berkut was cold, tired, did not receive reinforcements, they were not given live ammunition. They do not withstand the pressure of the armed crowd of militants, rested, warmed and inspired by slogans, exceeding ten to fifteen times. By morning, government buildings in Kiev will be captured and destroyed, mobile militant groups will take a bus station, a railway station and block entrances to the city from Brovary and Belaya Tserkov. Personnel with the "victims of government terror" will begin to turn over the air without a break. Hospitals and morgues also cordoned off by nationalist representatives. The connection between the city center and the province in the broad sense of the word will be lost. The armed rebellion itself will take no more than six hours, with the full connivance of the demoralized Kiev garrison. The tank brigade in Chernigov will remain in the barracks.
The location of President Yanukovych will be impossible to establish. By the middle of the day, he will try to go on the air through loyal television studios in Donetsk and Kharkov and announce martial law in connection with the attempted coup d'etat, ignoring the Verkhovna Rada. Parts of the garrisons of the eastern regions will start moving towards Kiev and Dnepropetrovsk.
Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama will be contacted by direct wire. Angela Merkel, who will have to make difficult choices, will also be connected to the consultations, since it will be necessary to simultaneously support the “aspiration of the Ukrainian people to common European values” and dissociate themselves from frankly fascist slogans that sound in western regions. Gradually, a certain Putin's plan, Merkel, will begin to crystallize, in fulfillment of which landing airplanes will rise from the airfields of Ryazan, Ivanovo and Cherekhi. There will be no way back. Yes, it was not from the very beginning.
The participation of Russian troops in the liberation of the central part of Kiev from militants may not be necessary. Having received real support, the central government will be able to mobilize combat-ready units from the eastern regions within two days. The battles on Podol will be quite bloody, but short-term, since the preponderance will be on the side of the government troops, and the morale spirit of the militants will drop to the freezing point, after Angela Merkel, as the official representative of Europe “in the Ukrainian crisis,” supports “restoring order” as opposed to “ fascist chaos. " Most of the militants will infiltrate from Kiev to the region and further to the regions, where they will be transferred to an illegal situation. These violent will be a little bit, but for some time they will be able to portray something like a guerrilla war, attacking military units and arranging attacks on government officials.
Nobody will seize the western regions. There will be introduced self-government under the control of the mixed forces of the OSCE and NATO. Ban Ki-moon will announce the conduct of a peacekeeping operation in Galicia and Volhynia under the general auspices of the UN already in hindsight. German and Polish troops will occupy strategic positions like the one in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Hungary will announce control over the Uzhgorod-Mukachevo-Berehove district "for the safety of fellow tribesmen." Romania will try to do the same in Bukovina, but will meet with an unequivocal rebuff from the central government in Kiev. Moscow will recognize the independence of Transnistria and announce the creation of a new military base on the territory of this partially recognized state. Crimea will begin negotiations on confederative status, and Russia and Ukraine will revise the agreement on the status of the Black Sea Fleet and the city of Sevastopol itself.
And when the dead are buried, a completely different life will begin in Eastern Europe.