Military Review

“Afghan threat” is a myth ...

Why is it advantageous for the regimes of the former Soviet republics to support it?

Afghanistan’s Central Asian neighbors — Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan — are awaiting the withdrawal of Western troops from this country with varying degrees of alarmist and pessimistic sentiment. Most sentimentally-minded analysts believe that radical movements will definitely rise from the Pakistani border to northern Afghanistan to destabilize the situation in the Central Asian republics. Is it so? An Washington scholar from Washington, Bayram Balji, offers his answer to this question.

Great exaggeration

All countries in the region have repeatedly expressed their concern about the situation after the coalition left Afghanistan. For example, the President of Uzbekistan still 7 December 2012-th called the world community to create a contact group under the auspices of the UN to solve problems that, in his opinion, will certainly arise after the withdrawal of troops. The Kyrgyz government also stated that all threats to the security of their country came from Afghanistan, and the withdrawal of troops would inevitably lead to chaos. Tajikistan, which has a long border with Afghanistan, also often expresses its fears about what awaits it after 2014. Even Kazakhstan, which does not border Afghanistan, shares universal concerns. Only Turkmenistan, the only state in Central Asia that maintained constant relations with the Taliban until their fall in 2001, shows no particular concern.

This concern, although justified, is greatly exaggerated, and the pseudo-threat from Afghanistan is used by Central Asian governments for their own purposes.

At first glance, countries in the region have legitimate concerns. Since independence, many of the problems of these republics and security threats have been partially linked to Afghanistan. Afghanistan, the world leader in opium production, “exports” some of its narcotic products through the Central Asian republics. Radical Islamism, which Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan intend to confront, was partially fueled and supported by Afghan instability. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) took refuge in Afghanistan after it was squeezed out of Central Asia, and it still operates in the tribal zone. Even if it did not commit major terrorist attacks in Central Asia for 10 years, in theory it could be attributed to new threats to the security of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where it was active before the “exile” to Afghanistan. Kazakhstan, although it is far from Afghanistan, is concerned about the presence of the jihadist movement on its territory.

If you listen to the leaders of the Central Asian states, the withdrawal of the Western coalition forces will surely bring the Taliban movement to power or, at a minimum, ease the pressure exerted by Western forces on the jihadist Central Asian movements that have found refuge in Afghanistan. This supposedly will allow them to rise to the north of Afghanistan, from where it will be quite easy to strike at the Uzbek, Kyrgyz and Tajik regimes. Some regional experts believe that the factor of residence of the same ethnic groups on both sides of the border should not be neglected either, as if this fact alone is on hand to jihadi terrorists.

In other words, it is believed that there is a risk of “contamination”, and the countries of the region have the right to concern. However, a careful analysis of the situation shows that these fears are greatly exaggerated. We will conduct a brief analysis of the main arguments of those who believe in the risk of “overflowing” of the jihadist threat.

Separated by boundary and mentality

The residence of representatives of the same ethnic groups on both sides of the Afghan border is not a sufficient factor for the Islamist threat. Afghan Tajiks, Uzbeks and Turkmen, of course, are very close to their counterparts in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. However, despite the linguistic, cultural and even religious community, one should not forget about the many differences that have arisen between the same ethnic groups over many decades. They were identical before the arrival of the Russian Empire in the region, but later they developed in completely different socio-political contexts. Russian culture, and even more Soviet culture, with the fall of the Central Asian emirates and the khanates, distanced Uzbeks, Turkmen and Tajiks from each other on opposite sides of Amu-Darya.

Even after 20 years of independence, the societies of Central Asia feel completely different from the Afghan society. Both the elite and ordinary citizens of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan continue to perceive Afghanistan negatively and even hostilely. This negative perception is supported by regimes that, in the event of any public tension, scare their populations with the possible “Afghanization” of their countries.

Uzbekistan provides a convincing example of disinterest in its fellows from Afghanistan. This country, the most populated in the region, which has the most diasporas in neighboring countries, has never had a policy of rapprochement with its ethnic brothers and movements of the Uzbek diaspora. Islam Karimov has always been suspicious of the nationalist and Islamist ideas of the Uzbek diasporas of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Afghanistan. Relations between Tashkent and the Uzbek field commander from Afghanistan, Rashid Dostum, have never been brilliant. Tashkent has always approached this local government not out of love, but because of the need to defend against Afghan threats. Rashid Dostum often resides in Turkey than in Uzbekistan. As for Uzbeks from other post-Soviet countries, for example, in Kyrgyzstan, Islam Karimov is interested in them only in force majeure circumstances, as was the case during the Osh events of the summer of 2010.

All Central Asian countries adhere to the policy of state building along an ethnonational type with a delineated territory within the borders inherited from the USSR. Colleagues in other countries, especially in gloomy and barbarous Afghanistan, are of little interest for post-Soviet Central Asia. Because of this hostility and regimes, and the people of Central Asia to what comes from the south, there is little chance that the Islamist movements, if they come from Afghanistan, will have the support of the people of Central Asia.

Radical Islam fizzles out

The risk of Islamist contagion seems even less likely when analyzing policies regarding the religious situation in these countries, as well as the evolution of relations between different forms of Islam in Central Asian societies. First of all, this analysis shows that radical Islam, which appeals to violence to assert its positions, has never had support among the local population, and at the moment is backing away. So, the IMU, the most significant jihadist movement in Central Asia, did not commit major attacks from 2004. The much less influential Kazakh jihadist movement performed small acts, although it is not known for certain whether it was them who committed them. In addition, there are doubts about the very existence of such a movement. Even non-radical and non-jihadist fundamentalism, represented by the Hizbut-Tahrir party, after a period of some popularity in Central Asian countries, runs out of steam - partly because of repression, but also because the local population lost interest in this movement, which is more like a party not Islamic and Marxist-Leninist sense.

Radical and fundamentalist Islam is retreating for many reasons. Some of these are directly related to governments and their way of managing a religious phenomenon. Even though this seems paradoxical, the repressions of the Central Asian regimes did not contribute much to the retreat of Islamism, but, on the contrary, sometimes fed it. The repressions had a double effect: they reduced Islamism, but in some cases contributed to the radicalization of moderate Muslims who fell under repression.

Another fact should also be taken into account in the evolution of Islamism in Central Asia - this is to some extent the Islamization of the Central Asian regimes themselves, who in the fight against Islamism would not want to look like enemies of Islam in the eyes of their Muslim population.

A vivid example of such “Islamization of the regime” to weaken radical Islamism is shown by Uzbekistan, the most Muslim country in Central Asia, due to its stories and the number of Muslims. At the beginning of 90, President Islam Karimov expelled the nationalist opposition from the country, but appropriated most of their nationalist ideas. He applied the same policy in relation to Islamism. Not that Islam Karimov became an Islamist, but his control of the religious factor makes him a Muslim leader who inspires the revival of Islam under the auspices of the state.

The state restores important Islamic places of worship and even opens educational Islamic institutions like the Islamic University or small madrasas. This religious policy makes him a president respected by traditional Uzbek Islam, in particular, Sufism. It provides him with the support of the majority of the Muslim population of Uzbekistan, where being an Uzbek means being Muslim, but Muslim in understanding ancestors, that is, practicing moderate Sunni Islam, apolitical and respectful to the legacy of brotherhoods.

Such voluntary Islamization of the country in order to resist radical Islamism was to some extent applied in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, which in their own manners rather successfully promote the new national Islam, where ethnic features are widely present.

This religious policy did not prevent the Central Asian regimes from simultaneously repressing everything that could be similar to radical Islamism. Despite excesses, it contributed to the progress of moderate Islam, which adequately meets the needs of the religion of a large part of the population.

Recent studies of Central Asian jihadist movements, in particular, the IMU, show that they are not interested in their country of origin. This group is still a scary story for Tashkent because of its initial goal to overthrow the regime of Islam Karimov and establish an Islamic caliphate. But for several years now his discourse and his activities have become more international in nature. In other words, after working closely with the Taliban and Al Qaeda, which cost the lives of both its leaders (Namangani was killed in 2001, and Yuldashev in 2009), the Uzbek IMU seems to be moving away from its original goals It is absorbed to some extent by its owners, from whom it borrowed purpose and strategy. In addition, the IMU now has more non-Uzbek militants and even non-Central Asian ones, as people from the Caucasus, Turkey and even Muslims from Europe join its ranks.

Finally, all the jihadists from Central Asia are now stationed on the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, in FATA (federally controlled tribal territories), far from the border that separates Afghanistan from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

Why do we need horror stories?

Why are the regimes of the post-Soviet countries of Central Asia so exaggerate the Islamist threat? This happens for many reasons and with a certain political calculation. And these reasons can be divided into two categories. All countries in the region, more or less affected by the Afghan problem, use alarmist statements about various threats, including Islamist ones, primarily with the aim of enhancing their role in the regional and international arenas. The US military bases in Bishkek and Khanabad were solid sources of foreign exchange for Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. But it is not only about economic and financial interests. From the neighborhood with Afghanistan, the countries of Central Asia were able to extract political and strategic benefits.

It is thanks to the Afghan threat that all countries in the region are interested in world superpowers - the United States, Europe, and, of course, China and Russia. Thanks to the war in Afghanistan, the countries of the region were able to hold regular political consultations with the United States and the EU countries. But the end of the war in Afghanistan, which generates fear and uncertainty in the countries of the region, allows them to break out of regional isolation and begin a dialogue with world powers. The countries of Central Asia continue to use the Afghan factor, including risks and security threats, to build their capacity to trade with world powers and strengthen their sovereignty in the international arena.

In domestic policy, the so-called Islamist threat is exaggerated by local regimes with a well-defined goal. It allows them to maintain pressure on all Muslims up to repression against those who do not want to live in accordance with the form of Islam, which is imposed by the state.

Generally speaking, the Islamist pseudo-threat allows all countries in the region to postpone the necessary reforms indefinitely. The phased withdrawal of ISAF troops from Afghanistan is the most discussed political event in Central Asia. And the extremely active media coverage of this event, launched by local regimes, in fact, is intended to hide other, really important issues of social and political life.

But the problems are much more important and serious than the mythical “Afghan threat”, there are: this is the inheritance of power, and comprehensive corruption, and ethnic nationalism. Of the five countries, at least two - Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan - will soon have to solve the problem of the transfer of power to their leaders. But this question remains taboo, that in a political clan system, competitive, but non-transparent, can lead to the most severe violence. On the other hand, corruption and nepotism have reached such an extent that the population can no longer bear them. Finally, ethnic nationalism, used by all countries to build a new national state in isolation from the Soviet era, brings the beginnings of violence more brutal than religious extremism, which in Central Asia is not as acute as in other Muslim countries.

* This publication is an abbreviated version of an article written for the French Scientific Center for International Studies CERI.
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  1. makarov
    makarov 24 January 2014 07: 59
    "The answer to this question is offered by Islamic scholar from Washington Bayram Bulji."

    I also found an "authority", but we have such "authorities" in every pub who, with the expression of "Mendeleev's skill", talk about international politics. Who knows, maybe they (in the pub) are right. It is not for nothing that it is said: - The voice of the people, - the voice of God. And they, too, are a PEOPLE !!
    1. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 24 January 2014 16: 04
      Quote: makarov
      "The answer to this question is offered by Islamic scholar from Washington Bayram Bulji."

      I also found an "authority", but we have such "authorities" in every pub who, with the expression of "Mendeleev's skill", talk about international politics. Who knows, maybe they (in the pub) are right. It is not for nothing that it is said: - The voice of the people, - the voice of God. And they, too, are a PEOPLE !!

      What is the essence of your comment? Do you agree with the opinion or not? Maybe you have an opinion? Flood is not grateful.

      As for the article, I completely agree with it. Moreover, the withdrawal of the Western warriors from Afghanistan will be a positive phenomenon both for the Russian Federation and for the "local" states.
      There was no threat from the south there and there is not, until the arrival of NATO in the region. The drug threat grew a hundred times only after the US invasion of the region.

      As soon as the Taliban get more opportunities in their actions, they will focus on the struggle for power. The second goal for them will be Pakistan.
      It is in this direction that the CIA curators will direct the Taliban after the withdrawal of the main forces. The rapprochement between Pakistan and China, in the face of growing confrontation in the Asia-Pacific region, can in no way suit the United States. Therefore, the main geopolitical game in the next 20 years will be Pakistan.
      On the one hand, the very destabilization in the country and the destruction of economic and political ties with China are beneficial, on the other hand, the "radicalization" of Pakistan could lead to a war with India and the possible involvement of China in this conflict. This is generally the maximum US program.

      As for the Russian Federation, the withdrawal of NATO from Afghanistan is an extremely positive phenomenon. The threat makes local regimes more accommodating. Gaining control over these territories will finally allow effectively combating drug trafficking, which in turn will financially bleed many radicals and crime in Russia itself.
      In addition, the United States will not leave completely, and therefore will be the main red rag and target from "European civilization", taking the Russian Federation out of the blow.
      And most importantly, the entire structure of NATO at our southern borders will be eliminated, as well as the work of Western intelligence agencies to destabilize the entire region and the Russian Federation.
  2. Name
    Name 24 January 2014 08: 01
    Welcome all. However, an Islamic scholar from Washington "forgot" to clarify that it is thanks to NATO's "peacekeeping" troops that Afghanistan has been setting records for the number of opium poppies grown for the third year in a row. Americans, as always, have made a mess and retire, all in the old "good" traditions. Ultimately, Russia will have to disentangle it.
  3. KOH
    KOH 24 January 2014 08: 04
    A contrived threat is an occasion to intervene once again in the internal affairs of a sovereign country ...
  4. major071
    major071 24 January 2014 08: 14
    I read it. Conclusion: Afghanistan is a "white and fluffy honey", there are no threats and there will be no threats, the Taliban and others like them "blown away", and Kerimov and Nazarbayev are two new Kim Il Sung. wassat
    1. Tersky
      Tersky 24 January 2014 09: 58
      Quote: major071
      Conclusion: Afghanistan is "white and fluffy honey", there are no threats and will not be, the Taliban and others like them were "blown away"

      The scenarios for further developments in Afghanistan are predictable, there are three of them, and one of the most pessimistic has the greatest chance of life "This is the creation by the Taliban of a military-political foothold in Warduj county, Badakhshan province, which has created a fortified area in northern Afghanistan and is gradually expanding its influence over the neighboring counties of Jurm and Yumgon. At the same time, the Taliban are working together with fighters from Al-Qaeda and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU What are the consequences of the activity of the Warjub Taliban group: - demonstration of the expansion of its zone of influence with subsequent expansion to the southern and eastern provinces of the country; - preparation of the seizure of northern Afghanistan and subsequent northward throw to Central Asia. Here we should expect a check on the strength of the Afghan-Tajik border, especially since a large part of the militants are Tajiks; - provoking the central government to conduct a military counter-terrorist operation in the Warduj county in order to defeat the government forces and level the influence of the government of H. Karzai. " Vladimir Karjakin- "Afghanistan after 2014." Read completely here и here
    2. Fin
      Fin 24 January 2014 10: 29
      Quote: major071
      I read it. Conclusion: Afghanistan is "white and fluffy sweetheart", there are no threats and will not be,

      analysis shows that radical Islam, which calls for violence to assert its positions, has never had support among the local population, and is currently backing down.

      An article to reassure, in the light of the coming withdrawal of the Americans. And the wild Afghans are already different, enlightened and not at all radical, especially the Taliban. They peacefully grow poppy and do not touch anyone.
      The threat is real if you do nothing.
  5. zol
    zol 24 January 2014 08: 22
    In many ways, I agree with the author, the threat from Afghanistan is clearly greatly exaggerated. Even during the rule of the Taliban, none of them tried to export religious radicalism to Central Asia.
    1. Onizuka teacher
      Onizuka teacher 24 January 2014 09: 09
      I’ll also add the respected that in the Republic of Kazakhstan, radicalism is falling and moderate Islam is growing stronger in the minds of young people. The KNB works wonderfully for us, and the youth got smarter.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  6. shelva
    shelva 24 January 2014 08: 23
    Once again, the former republics will think about the benefits of "independence" from Moscow and self-determination. Not all of them have it as smoothly as the Turkmens - but here they also threaten, they do not allow to trade in apricots peacefully, they frighten drug trafficking. There is something to ochkanat former fellow citizens.
  7. ZU-23
    ZU-23 24 January 2014 08: 23
    Watch initially who is standing on the border, if there is already someone who is taking on his paw, then problems can not be avoided.
  8. svskor80
    svskor80 24 January 2014 08: 27
    The scientific justification for the inglorious withdrawal from Afghanistan of NATO troops. The neighbors of Afghanistan will have problems, maybe not right away, all the same, the Taliban in the country itself will first need to seize power. Well, again, everything will depend on financial and ideological recharge from the Saudis.
  9. Volodya Sibiryak
    Volodya Sibiryak 24 January 2014 08: 52
    This article was written by an analyst who sits in Washington, hence the whole pathos of what was written. If such a neighbor were near us, then the threat would have been not mythical for them, but the most real one.
  10. Arhj
    Arhj 24 January 2014 09: 00
    For me, the problem of Afghanistan is not in the presence of Islamists, but in the absence of a unified power with which to negotiate. Even an Islamist government is better than none. For Russia, the main threat from Afghanistan does not come from terrorists, but from drug trafficking, and only someone, and even the Taliban, have demonstrated that they are capable of effectively combating drug production.
  11. FC SKIF
    FC SKIF 24 January 2014 09: 01
    West raised the beast, and now is trying to prove that everything is ok.
  12. invisibility
    invisibility 24 January 2014 09: 07
    All is well beautiful marquise! Opium is growing, the army is deserting, people are being killed, etc., but otherwise everything is fine!
  13. ed65b
    ed65b 24 January 2014 09: 28
    The author correctly emphasized. By that time, while the Afghans will understand each other and divide the country, and this can continue for many, many years. Russia should help Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan rearm and be ready to defend their borders. you can not worry about Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, if the first is strong militarily, then the second will simply pay off, as he did all this time.
  14. Al_lexx
    Al_lexx 24 January 2014 09: 46
    An interesting point of view, not deprived of the right to life. Of course, not everything is as simple as it seems at first glance, after reading the article. But not taking into account this aspect of the relationship, it seems to me is not entirely objective. From any situation you need to benefit. And for this you need a comprehensive look. If the author’s point of view is discarded, part of the objectivity is lost.
  15. Semurg
    Semurg 24 January 2014 10: 05
    As far as I know, the "Northern Alliance and General Dostum" held out thanks to the support of the republics of Middle Asia and Russia. The Turkmen did not participate in this and immediately recognized the Taliban as the main ones in Afghanistan. If the republics of Middle Asia change their policy in supporting their diasporas in Afghanistan, then the Taliban will not attack Central Asia with the help of the IMU and other organizations. I will not talk about Islamization for Central Asia in Kazakhstan, like the agitation of radicals has decreased, at least in the mosques it is not after the certification of mullahs and the expulsion of obvious agitators (although there is an Islamic underground and periodically reminds of itself). For drugs in Afghanistan, I think it will last for a long time and it will be very difficult to get treatment if at all someone does it, and for traffic through Sr. Asia, any city will take a "donkey" loaded with gold. Well, in general, traffic is a dependent business, it exists as long as there is demand and supply of goods.
    1. ed65b
      ed65b 24 January 2014 11: 40
      Quote: Semurg
      As far as I know, the "Northern Alliance and General Dostum" held out thanks to the support of the republics of Middle Asia and Russia.

      Thanks to only Karimov, Dostum stayed. Under Termez tanks stood after the withdrawal of troops to the horizon. Almost everyone went to Dostum.
      Quote: Semurg
      Kazakhstan like the agitation of radicals has decreased, at least in mosques this is not after the certification of mullahs and the expulsion of obvious agitators (though the Islamic underground is and periodically reminds itself)

      But in Russia they seem to have increased, which is not at all pleasing.
  16. andrejwz
    andrejwz 24 January 2014 10: 21
    Quote: zol
    In many ways, I agree with the author, the threat from Afghanistan is clearly greatly exaggerated.

    All right. But if the United States nevertheless sells the leadership of Afghanistan and there are bases on its territory, the threat will be real.
  17. Ivanovich47
    Ivanovich47 24 January 2014 10: 50
    Under the guise, the leaders of the Central Asian republics, talking about the "threat" from Afghanistan, will beg for money from Russia. The leadership of Russia should not succumb to the blackmail of Asian bais.
    1. Serg65
      Serg65 24 January 2014 12: 28
      Well, yes, they should not give in, but the first swallows have already flown, just the other day in the mountains of Kyrgyzstan a terrorist group of Uighur "peaceful shepherds" was destroyed
      1. marshes
        marshes 24 January 2014 13: 45
        Quote: Serg65
        just the other day in the mountains of Kyrgyzstan, a terrorist group of Uighur "peaceful shepherds" was destroyed

        Could you give more details?
        Were all citizens of the PRC armed with what, on which section of the border did they cross or came from the rear, who discovered them?
  18. abrakadabre
    abrakadabre 24 January 2014 11: 01
    Pretty weak and divorced from life article. Or direct glossing over of reality. The danger of the Taliban for these countries is really not so high. So far, the next few years ... Until the Taliban deal with all the dissenters at home.
    And Islamization, which is gaining momentum in general, is becoming more and more rampant, is not even a buzz. Mosques appear like mushrooms after rain. Built at an accelerated pace.
    And there are more and more young people on the streets, clearly distinguishing themselves from the crowd with elements of clothing prescribed by Islam: guys with hats on the top of their heads, girls in hoodies and hijabs.
    At the same time, colleges (with very rare exceptions) sit in pants and skirts, followed by a divorce session for grandmas. A small number of students do at least something on the program. And only a few understand what they teach and prepare work on their own, and do not write off from the Internet.
  19. avt
    avt 24 January 2014 11: 15
    It seems that the article was written based on the song that Leizer Weisben - Utesov sang, "All is well beautiful marquise with the exception of a trifle" One of my acquaintances, who worked closely with the locals, said that when the troops were withdrawn, the old Afghan told him - "you are taking the war with you" .Pokhodu those who do not see the danger posed by the "common people" that they muddied Islamism and created all this "controlled chaos" naively believe that something will certainly not affect them? I will not persuade. I can only again refer to the Strugatskys and their work - “even if it only smelled of sulfur, it is necessary to organize the production of holy water on an industrial scale.” All the more so as the main “universal” ideologist, whose students are bringing his ideas to life, Brzezinski has already announced region "f Asian Balconies". Do you think these are all fairy tales? "A fairy tale is a lie, but there is a hint in it - a lesson for good fellows"
  20. iulai
    iulai 24 January 2014 13: 40
    The myth of the Afghan threat is beneficial to the Central Asian republics. There is a reason to press on Russia, to draw out money, weapons.
  21. nov_tech.vrn
    nov_tech.vrn 24 January 2014 14: 55
    Today we have been pampered with opuses from the Fergana international news agency, well, you need to know your enemies, this Agency, the same type of "human rights" institution that fights for human rights for grants, is certainly a good thing, but only who pays money, he dances “Agency.” That is why the phrase - the Islamic scholar from Washington Bayram Bulji, did not cause shock, the simple "peaceful" organization of the IMU, Mr. Bayram Bulji, does not notice, as well as their numerous associates, loudly declared themselves in the early 90s, and tidied up and hidden after 2001, they have not gone anywhere and continue to carry out subversive activities with the tacit connivance of the US occupation forces. It is clear that Mr. Bulji will not contradict the official policy of his homeland, so to speak. ", in fact, the Taliban supported the Islamists' aggression in Asia in every possible way and will not give up this support, but it is the United States that benefits from the arc of instability and chaos near the borders of China and in the former Soviet republics. x, because it is China and Russia, which is assembling the vehicle structure in Central Asia, that will have to fight this infection, supported by heroin money, and spend colossal resources on it.
  22. KG_patriot_last
    KG_patriot_last 24 January 2014 19: 07
    Well, of course, the myth for this underexpert. Perhaps the activity of banned groups in our country is also a myth? Is the radicalization and Arabization of our ancient Turkic people also a myth? Is the activity of Arab and Turkish missionary special services also a myth?
  23. alone
    alone 24 January 2014 19: 34
    The only weak spot in Central Asia is Tajikistan. If there is a chance that radicals can penetrate Central Asia, then 100% will be done through Tajikistan. Turkmenistan is neutral, and they will come to power on the drum in Afghanistan. They cooperate with everyone in a row. Small border with Uzbekistan. yes, and passing through the river is not an option. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan do not have common borders. The most convenient place is the border with Tajikistan. And there, as the 201st, so the Taliban are not suicides. Although the infiltration of small groups is not excluded. yes and Gorny Badashkhan is just a convenient place. There is where to go and hides.
  24. Blackmokona
    Blackmokona 25 January 2014 08: 26
    Drug production in Afghanistan, by years.
  25. Blackmokona
    Blackmokona 25 January 2014 08: 30
    And the second source, for greater objectivity.
  26. Blackmokona
    Blackmokona 25 January 2014 08: 31
    Production of drugs in Afghanistan by years.