Trillion in the air
Till 2025, it is planned to spend over 991 billion rubles to stimulate the aircraft industry. The goal is to triple the share of Russia in the world market.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade put forward for public discussion the draft of the finalized program “Development aviation industry for 2013-2025 ”, involving the tripling of both the revenue of domestic industry enterprises and the presence of Russia on the world market. 991,6 billion rubles will be spent on the development of promising models of aircraft and helicopters, on R&D of new models and stimulation of the industry as a whole. But so that the program does not remain just a flight of fancy, aircraft-building enterprises will have to be significantly restructured to reduce costs and cost of production. This is the only way to make a subsidized industry in many respects competitive.
According to the authors of the program, by the 2025 year, the revenue of aviation industry enterprises should increase more than three times - from 504 billion rubles to 1775 billion. The global market share in civil aviation should grow from the current 1,1% to 3,6. The profitability of enterprises in terms of net profit should double, and labor productivity - from the current 12 million per person per year to 14, 5 million (in the USA this indicator is 10 times higher). Thus, Russia plans to maintain the status of the third world power in the aircraft industry.
“Financing of the aircraft industry is not reduced, as it may seem,” explained Expert Online, an informed source at the Ministry of Industry and Trade. - Yes, the figure has changed, it was done according to the recommendations of the financial block of the government, namely, they removed the duplication of expenses provided for by another state program: “Development of industry and increase of its competitiveness”. In general, the financing of the aircraft industry remained at the level of 1,7 trillion rubles. ” The aviation industry now includes 248 enterprises, the total revenue of which in 2011 was more than 608 billion rubles. The industry employs more than 400 thousand people, creating 1,1% of the country's GDP. However, it is assumed that after the modernization of enterprises, the number of employees will be reduced to 122 thousand. The reduction will occur mainly due to changes in the production model of aviation enterprises, in particular, by outsourcing the production of certain types of products, including within clusters. Workers employed today in integrated structures, in the production of components that are used in many industries, and not only in the aviation industry, will be transferred to small and medium-sized businesses.
“Labor productivity will be increased mainly due to the modernization of production, the introduction of robotics,” said Yuri Sarychev, Director General of the OGKU Development of Aviation Cluster of the Ulyanovsk Region, Expert-Online. - We have already installed unique equipment at Aviastar SP, which makes it possible to reduce the cost of production. The second method is staff development and retraining programs. We will soon have a department at the enterprise. The third way to reduce costs and costs is to diversify production, outsource the production of certain types of products. Some corporations have already begun this process, in the future the Ministry of Industry and Trade will force it. We, in turn, propose to create in the Ulyanovsk region a single center of aircraft cosomization. Here you can make interior trim and painting. We already have unique equipment that is idle. Centralization of painting will also allow companies to optimize costs. But for this you need to make changes to this program, which we are now trying to achieve at the discussion stage. I also think that it is better to use domestic components to reduce the cost of production. ”
However, the program prescribes the need to create cooperation with manufacturers from other countries as a priority. It is now actively used in the production of the Sukhoi SuperJet 100 aircraft, which consists of imported components by 70%. For the finalization of the SSJ 100 according to the program, 2019 billion rubles will be allocated up to 24. Another 19,5 billion was directed to perform R & D to create a new model of the SSJ 100 family. Considerable funds will also be invested in the development of the MC-21 and IL-476 aircraft. But experts still ambiguously assess the prospects of the domestic aviation industry.
“It is quite realistic to triple the revenue of the industry by 2025, since we already see a steady growth trend in all sub-sectors, and 15-20% annual growth is not uncommon. Moreover, the process of creating new models of aircraft and other products in the aviation industry is underway, said Oleg Panteleev, the editor-in-chief of Aviaport portal, told Expert Online. - Today's civilian products of our aircraft industry clearly will not give a breakthrough in terms of market share. IL-96 and Tu-204 do not have significant commercial prospects - they will be purchased mainly by state structures. SuperJet is superior in performance to its counterparts - the Brazilian Embraer and the Canadian Bombardier. However, he "plays" in the narrow niche of regional aircraft, and his success will not allow a radical change in the positioning of Russia. As for the MC-21, it marks in the most demanded part of the market - the segment of medium-haul airliners. Its potential is high: none of the competitors can offer the same combination of low operating costs and passenger comfort. The first indicator is the merit of a wing made of composite materials and the newest engines, the second is a consequence of the largest fuselage diameter in the class and the most modern air conditioning system. From a technical point of view, our aircraft SSJ-100 and MC-21 will have all the qualities that customers demand. ”
It is assumed that the measures incorporated in the program will allow Russia to gain a foothold in the top three world leaders. By 2025, aviation production in the USA and Europe will be about 262 and 258 billion US dollars, respectively, and in Russia - about 40 billion dollars. But China can knock us out of the Big Three, whose aviation industry has been growing at an accelerating pace in recent years. “In order to triple our presence in the world market, we need to start creating something breakthrough now,” said Anatoly Khodorovsky, Deputy General Director of the Investment Company. "Region". - But we are still lagging behind in the qualitative characteristics of even new models, so this seems to me a utopian task. We do not yet have models that would be cheaper than competitors with the same quality. To increase labor productivity, we need a massive assembly of airplanes, while in our country each model is produced in dozens, not hundreds, as in the West. Therefore, we will always have big costs. In addition, we do not have cheap labor that could create high added value. So, there are still no prerequisites for tripling revenues and holding strong positions in the world market. ”
Yury Sarychev does not agree with him:
“To triple the revenue of enterprises is quite real. The growth rate is already there, but so far mainly due to the state order. The state has already ordered the Aviastar SP 36 aircraft IL-76, then the order will grow to 180. And then only in Ulyanovsk several new productions will be created soon. Started production of IL-112, will soon produce and An-124-100. Bombardier plans to release its Q 400 here this year. This is one of the articles of the program - the localization of the world's leading industries in Russia. Viking Air, another Canadian company, will produce the Twin Otter Series 400 together with Vityaz Corporation, which has already become a resident of the port economic zone. Czech Evektor in the Ulyanovsk region will produce EV 55. And of course, our MC-21 in the 2015 year will make the first flight and will be launched to the market as early as the 2018 year. In addition, aviation does not stand still. A competition for the design of the 2030 Aircraft, which the Ministry of Industry and Trade has planned to allocate 2022 billion rubles for this program since 116, will be announced soon, ”the expert believes.
The program also provides for the development of domestic avionics, engine building, aggregate building, helicopter building. It is planned to create a PD-14 engine, launch the upgraded Mi-38, Ka-62 helicopters, and start the development of promising light helicopters with 2,5 and 4,5 tons. The global market for helicopters in 2011 amounted to 20,3 billion dollars. The largest suppliers are the countries of the European Union: in 2011, they produced all types of helicopters worth 8,8 billion US dollars (43,3% of the global helicopter market). Russia's share in this market was 16,3% mainly due to sales of military and multi-purpose helicopters.
“What we really shouldn’t worry about is the helicopters for which Russia is among the leaders in sales,” shared the expert with Ivan Andrievsky, the first vice-president of the Russian Union of Engineers. - In 2012, the volume of deliveries amounted to almost 15 billion rubles. The main buyers of domestic helicopters are India and China. There are also serious contracts with the United States to re-equip the armed forces of Afghanistan. Based on all this, investment in Russian helicopter construction today is one of the most promising. Prominent representatives of this industry are Russian Helicopters. The company is engaged in the construction of new multi-purpose helicopters Ka-62, Mi-38, Mi-171-2. Also with the Anglo-Italian company AgustaWestland an agreement was signed on the creation of a new light helicopter, the take-off mass of 2,5 tons. Of great interest is the Ka-52 helicopter, first presented at Le Bourget. Retaining the entire range of weaponry single helicopter, Ka-52 can additionally take on board the rocket-driven ATGM "Ataka" type 9M120-1 (9M120-1F) developed by FSUE "KBM" (Kolomna) with laser guidance system (SLS), a guided missile the air-to-air class of the Igla-V melee, as well as unguided air-to-surface missiles. The program also provides for the construction of privately-owned enterprises for the production of small aircraft. Now the construction of aircraft for small aircraft is mainly engaged in the Smolensk Aviation Plant, which is part of the corporation Tactical Missiles. The company manufactures the 4 local Yak-18T, its 6-local version of the CM-2000, 6-local SM-92, as well as its version with the CM-92T turbojet engine. However, experts do not see the point in creating new productions.
“We also plan to build an aircraft manufacturing plant, but this is a very distant future,” said Irina Karaseva, Director General of Malavia, Expert-Online. - The reason is simple - low demand. In recent years, of course, both business and officials have shown increasing interest in small-sized aircraft. But these are mostly single sales. Our company sells no more than 10-12 aircraft per year, and for profitable production it should be made in the hundreds. But so far very few people in Russia understand the advantages of small aircraft, for example, that a plane purchased once will not require maintenance costs if it is leased for example. ”
The authors of the program note that a limited amount of investment hinders the entry of Russian aircraft manufacturers to the world market. Interest rates and the share of borrowed funds in financing investment programs from competing companies in the United States, China and Europe are significantly lower due to the support of the aircraft manufacturer from the state. For our competitors, interest rates are 4 - 6% per annum, and the share of borrowed funds in the loan portfolio of companies does not exceed 20%. For Russian enterprises engaged in the aircraft industry, the share of borrowed funds is more than 70%, and the rates are 10-15%. Therefore, a scheme for financing guarantees for the residual value of aircraft is currently being worked out, involving the creation of a special company, a subsidiary of United Aircraft Building Corporation, which will be the guarantor company. This scheme is based on the experience of Western countries, where the guarantor is the manufacturer of aviation equipment (for example - Boeing Capital Corporation).
The initial authorized capital of the guarantor company is planned to be formed through the contribution of the Russian Federation to JSC United Aircraft Building Corporation. Vnesheconombank will allocate loans to new aviation projects: funds within the framework of return financing will be provided for up to 25 years in tranches during the first 10 years. The amount of funding is determined depending on the project, up to 75% of its value. The program also provides for sales promotion, for which leasing companies and aircraft buyers are already subsidizing interest rates on loans.
Do not forget the authors of the program and the development of science. To this end, a national research center will be created, coordinating research activities in the aircraft industry. As a result of targeted search and applied research, a scientific and technical background will be created. The personnel problem is supposed to be solved jointly with the national center of aircraft engineering, the Ulyanovsk-Avia research and production clusters, the New Star Technopolis, the Samara Region aerospace cluster and other aviation industry clusters.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade put forward for public discussion the draft of the finalized program “Development aviation industry for 2013-2025 ”, involving the tripling of both the revenue of domestic industry enterprises and the presence of Russia on the world market. 991,6 billion rubles will be spent on the development of promising models of aircraft and helicopters, on R&D of new models and stimulation of the industry as a whole. But so that the program does not remain just a flight of fancy, aircraft-building enterprises will have to be significantly restructured to reduce costs and cost of production. This is the only way to make a subsidized industry in many respects competitive.
According to the authors of the program, by the 2025 year, the revenue of aviation industry enterprises should increase more than three times - from 504 billion rubles to 1775 billion. The global market share in civil aviation should grow from the current 1,1% to 3,6. The profitability of enterprises in terms of net profit should double, and labor productivity - from the current 12 million per person per year to 14, 5 million (in the USA this indicator is 10 times higher). Thus, Russia plans to maintain the status of the third world power in the aircraft industry.
Information: In the 2011 year (the period of the layout of the program) the size of the aircraft market, including products of military and civilian use, amounted to 109,5 billion US dollars. At the end of 2011, the Russian Federation ranked third in the world in terms of aviation output (17,2 billion US dollars). The first place is occupied by the USA (146,6 billion US dollars), the second - by the European Union (140,1 billion US dollars). Canada followed Russia (15,6 billion US dollars), Japan (14,9 billion US dollars), Brazil (5,7 billion US dollars), China and India. It is expected that due to the growth in world passenger and cargo traffic the demand for new aircraft will increase to 2025 year almost 2,9 times, which will create opportunities for the growth of the domestic aviation industry. A greater shift in demand from North America and Europe towards Asia is expected, which will not only open up new opportunities for the development of current world leaders in the aircraft industry, but also give new participants a chance in the global aviation market. There will also be a tendency to increase the civilian segment relative to the military. Therefore, the program focuses more on the development of civil aviation. Initially, the program laid 1,7 trillion rubles to stimulate the industry, but after the adjustment only 991,6 billion rubles remained.
“Financing of the aircraft industry is not reduced, as it may seem,” explained Expert Online, an informed source at the Ministry of Industry and Trade. - Yes, the figure has changed, it was done according to the recommendations of the financial block of the government, namely, they removed the duplication of expenses provided for by another state program: “Development of industry and increase of its competitiveness”. In general, the financing of the aircraft industry remained at the level of 1,7 trillion rubles. ” The aviation industry now includes 248 enterprises, the total revenue of which in 2011 was more than 608 billion rubles. The industry employs more than 400 thousand people, creating 1,1% of the country's GDP. However, it is assumed that after the modernization of enterprises, the number of employees will be reduced to 122 thousand. The reduction will occur mainly due to changes in the production model of aviation enterprises, in particular, by outsourcing the production of certain types of products, including within clusters. Workers employed today in integrated structures, in the production of components that are used in many industries, and not only in the aviation industry, will be transferred to small and medium-sized businesses.
“Labor productivity will be increased mainly due to the modernization of production, the introduction of robotics,” said Yuri Sarychev, Director General of the OGKU Development of Aviation Cluster of the Ulyanovsk Region, Expert-Online. - We have already installed unique equipment at Aviastar SP, which makes it possible to reduce the cost of production. The second method is staff development and retraining programs. We will soon have a department at the enterprise. The third way to reduce costs and costs is to diversify production, outsource the production of certain types of products. Some corporations have already begun this process, in the future the Ministry of Industry and Trade will force it. We, in turn, propose to create in the Ulyanovsk region a single center of aircraft cosomization. Here you can make interior trim and painting. We already have unique equipment that is idle. Centralization of painting will also allow companies to optimize costs. But for this you need to make changes to this program, which we are now trying to achieve at the discussion stage. I also think that it is better to use domestic components to reduce the cost of production. ”
However, the program prescribes the need to create cooperation with manufacturers from other countries as a priority. It is now actively used in the production of the Sukhoi SuperJet 100 aircraft, which consists of imported components by 70%. For the finalization of the SSJ 100 according to the program, 2019 billion rubles will be allocated up to 24. Another 19,5 billion was directed to perform R & D to create a new model of the SSJ 100 family. Considerable funds will also be invested in the development of the MC-21 and IL-476 aircraft. But experts still ambiguously assess the prospects of the domestic aviation industry.
“It is quite realistic to triple the revenue of the industry by 2025, since we already see a steady growth trend in all sub-sectors, and 15-20% annual growth is not uncommon. Moreover, the process of creating new models of aircraft and other products in the aviation industry is underway, said Oleg Panteleev, the editor-in-chief of Aviaport portal, told Expert Online. - Today's civilian products of our aircraft industry clearly will not give a breakthrough in terms of market share. IL-96 and Tu-204 do not have significant commercial prospects - they will be purchased mainly by state structures. SuperJet is superior in performance to its counterparts - the Brazilian Embraer and the Canadian Bombardier. However, he "plays" in the narrow niche of regional aircraft, and his success will not allow a radical change in the positioning of Russia. As for the MC-21, it marks in the most demanded part of the market - the segment of medium-haul airliners. Its potential is high: none of the competitors can offer the same combination of low operating costs and passenger comfort. The first indicator is the merit of a wing made of composite materials and the newest engines, the second is a consequence of the largest fuselage diameter in the class and the most modern air conditioning system. From a technical point of view, our aircraft SSJ-100 and MC-21 will have all the qualities that customers demand. ”
It is assumed that the measures incorporated in the program will allow Russia to gain a foothold in the top three world leaders. By 2025, aviation production in the USA and Europe will be about 262 and 258 billion US dollars, respectively, and in Russia - about 40 billion dollars. But China can knock us out of the Big Three, whose aviation industry has been growing at an accelerating pace in recent years. “In order to triple our presence in the world market, we need to start creating something breakthrough now,” said Anatoly Khodorovsky, Deputy General Director of the Investment Company. "Region". - But we are still lagging behind in the qualitative characteristics of even new models, so this seems to me a utopian task. We do not yet have models that would be cheaper than competitors with the same quality. To increase labor productivity, we need a massive assembly of airplanes, while in our country each model is produced in dozens, not hundreds, as in the West. Therefore, we will always have big costs. In addition, we do not have cheap labor that could create high added value. So, there are still no prerequisites for tripling revenues and holding strong positions in the world market. ”
Yury Sarychev does not agree with him:
“To triple the revenue of enterprises is quite real. The growth rate is already there, but so far mainly due to the state order. The state has already ordered the Aviastar SP 36 aircraft IL-76, then the order will grow to 180. And then only in Ulyanovsk several new productions will be created soon. Started production of IL-112, will soon produce and An-124-100. Bombardier plans to release its Q 400 here this year. This is one of the articles of the program - the localization of the world's leading industries in Russia. Viking Air, another Canadian company, will produce the Twin Otter Series 400 together with Vityaz Corporation, which has already become a resident of the port economic zone. Czech Evektor in the Ulyanovsk region will produce EV 55. And of course, our MC-21 in the 2015 year will make the first flight and will be launched to the market as early as the 2018 year. In addition, aviation does not stand still. A competition for the design of the 2030 Aircraft, which the Ministry of Industry and Trade has planned to allocate 2022 billion rubles for this program since 116, will be announced soon, ”the expert believes.
The program also provides for the development of domestic avionics, engine building, aggregate building, helicopter building. It is planned to create a PD-14 engine, launch the upgraded Mi-38, Ka-62 helicopters, and start the development of promising light helicopters with 2,5 and 4,5 tons. The global market for helicopters in 2011 amounted to 20,3 billion dollars. The largest suppliers are the countries of the European Union: in 2011, they produced all types of helicopters worth 8,8 billion US dollars (43,3% of the global helicopter market). Russia's share in this market was 16,3% mainly due to sales of military and multi-purpose helicopters.
“What we really shouldn’t worry about is the helicopters for which Russia is among the leaders in sales,” shared the expert with Ivan Andrievsky, the first vice-president of the Russian Union of Engineers. - In 2012, the volume of deliveries amounted to almost 15 billion rubles. The main buyers of domestic helicopters are India and China. There are also serious contracts with the United States to re-equip the armed forces of Afghanistan. Based on all this, investment in Russian helicopter construction today is one of the most promising. Prominent representatives of this industry are Russian Helicopters. The company is engaged in the construction of new multi-purpose helicopters Ka-62, Mi-38, Mi-171-2. Also with the Anglo-Italian company AgustaWestland an agreement was signed on the creation of a new light helicopter, the take-off mass of 2,5 tons. Of great interest is the Ka-52 helicopter, first presented at Le Bourget. Retaining the entire range of weaponry single helicopter, Ka-52 can additionally take on board the rocket-driven ATGM "Ataka" type 9M120-1 (9M120-1F) developed by FSUE "KBM" (Kolomna) with laser guidance system (SLS), a guided missile the air-to-air class of the Igla-V melee, as well as unguided air-to-surface missiles. The program also provides for the construction of privately-owned enterprises for the production of small aircraft. Now the construction of aircraft for small aircraft is mainly engaged in the Smolensk Aviation Plant, which is part of the corporation Tactical Missiles. The company manufactures the 4 local Yak-18T, its 6-local version of the CM-2000, 6-local SM-92, as well as its version with the CM-92T turbojet engine. However, experts do not see the point in creating new productions.
“We also plan to build an aircraft manufacturing plant, but this is a very distant future,” said Irina Karaseva, Director General of Malavia, Expert-Online. - The reason is simple - low demand. In recent years, of course, both business and officials have shown increasing interest in small-sized aircraft. But these are mostly single sales. Our company sells no more than 10-12 aircraft per year, and for profitable production it should be made in the hundreds. But so far very few people in Russia understand the advantages of small aircraft, for example, that a plane purchased once will not require maintenance costs if it is leased for example. ”
The authors of the program note that a limited amount of investment hinders the entry of Russian aircraft manufacturers to the world market. Interest rates and the share of borrowed funds in financing investment programs from competing companies in the United States, China and Europe are significantly lower due to the support of the aircraft manufacturer from the state. For our competitors, interest rates are 4 - 6% per annum, and the share of borrowed funds in the loan portfolio of companies does not exceed 20%. For Russian enterprises engaged in the aircraft industry, the share of borrowed funds is more than 70%, and the rates are 10-15%. Therefore, a scheme for financing guarantees for the residual value of aircraft is currently being worked out, involving the creation of a special company, a subsidiary of United Aircraft Building Corporation, which will be the guarantor company. This scheme is based on the experience of Western countries, where the guarantor is the manufacturer of aviation equipment (for example - Boeing Capital Corporation).
The initial authorized capital of the guarantor company is planned to be formed through the contribution of the Russian Federation to JSC United Aircraft Building Corporation. Vnesheconombank will allocate loans to new aviation projects: funds within the framework of return financing will be provided for up to 25 years in tranches during the first 10 years. The amount of funding is determined depending on the project, up to 75% of its value. The program also provides for sales promotion, for which leasing companies and aircraft buyers are already subsidizing interest rates on loans.
Do not forget the authors of the program and the development of science. To this end, a national research center will be created, coordinating research activities in the aircraft industry. As a result of targeted search and applied research, a scientific and technical background will be created. The personnel problem is supposed to be solved jointly with the national center of aircraft engineering, the Ulyanovsk-Avia research and production clusters, the New Star Technopolis, the Samara Region aerospace cluster and other aviation industry clusters.
Help: The volume of the global aviation product market at the end of 2011 of the year reached 256,7 billion US dollars. About 64% of this amount falls on the civilian segment. By 2025, the global market for aviation products will grow 2,1 times, which will be 543,3 billion US dollars. About 68% of this amount will be in the civilian segment. The volume of the aircraft engine market in 2011 amounted to 60,1 billion US dollars, avionics - 21,6 billion US dollars, aviation systems and units - 45,3 billion dollars. The largest manufacturer in the world in these markets is the USA: in 2011, aircraft engines of all types were produced there for the sum of 34,6 billion US dollars (57,6% of the market), avionics - for the sum of 15,1 billion US dollars (70,1% of the market), units and systems - for the amount of 16,1 billion US dollars (35,5% of the market). The Russian Federation in these sectors participated mainly due to the supply of products for military equipment, and its share in the markets of aircraft engines, avionics, units and systems in 2011 was 2%, 11,2 % and 2,3% respectively.
Information