Why Russia has sharply increased debts
To begin with - purely formal data.“According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the external debt of Russia grew by 15% - to 732,046 billion dollars by the end of 2013, the regulator said. At the beginning of last year, external debt amounted to 636,435 billion. At the same time, in the fourth quarter of last year, the figure increased by 2,5%. Over the past year, government debt increased to 63,44 billion dollars (+ 1,2%), central bank debt decreased to 15,844 billion dollars (-8,8%), banks' debts increased to 219,94 billion dollars (+ 3,8%), debts of other sectors economy - up to 437,822 billion dollars (+ 2,5%). ... We add that the total external debt implies private and federal obligations of Russia. "
Without going into details - why is debt growing at such a speed? The answer to this question is related to the specifics of a liberal monetary policy performed by our liberal reformers. Its essence lies in the “ingenious” concept of Gaidar that the economy should be developed through foreign investment. And in order for them to "come", you need only one thing - low inflation. I note that this concept guides all Russian governments from 1992 of the year, with the exception of the short period of Primakov-Maslyukov.
Her problem is that any investor wants to make a profit. If he, for example, is ready to receive 10% on invested funds, and he has invested 100 millions, then take out and put him 10 millions every year. If they are all like this, then this means that the cumulative amount of investment that our economy is ready to “digest” is a tenfold amount of the money that we are ready to give to the investor. In this case, since the investor is a foreign one, you need to give it in a currency.
Of course, all investors have different appetites, for this reason it’s so easy to find out the total amount of investments that our economy can accept (it's not to mention that the situation changes from year to year and the situation needs to be averaged over the years). There are a couple of problems. The first is that many investments in our country do not come at all - because they represent the purchase of shares located outside the country. And if the capitalization of Russian companies is growing, the amounts for which these shares are sold are growing, the amounts to be returned (that is, exported abroad) are growing, and there are no economic benefits. However, if capitalization falls, then the opposite is true.
The second problem is the assessment of the amount of currency to be returned. The fact is that total currency revenue is divided into several parts. Part of it is exported by the state (in the form of the Central Bank and the budget), and then it is returned back in the form of loans that need to be repaid. Part of the leaves the country on previously made loans (the volume of which is growing, as we see from the statistics). Part of it goes to the purchase of imports, that is, it is not returned to investors within the country. So, over the past couple of years, the total volume of foreign exchange earnings fell (well, it certainly did not grow), the export of capital increased, and the volume of imports, too.
Hence the suspicion arises: did the remaining proceeds suffice to satisfy those who made investments earlier, when everything was good in 2000 due to the rise in oil prices? If not, they must withdraw their investment! And what do we see? As soon as it became clear that we are joining the WTO, that is, the volume of imports will increase sharply, and an accelerated outflow of capital began. At the first stage, the liberals from the government and the Central Bank promised to “rectify the situation” tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, clearly not understanding what the economic essence of the process is, today they are silent in a rag. Although we already started having problems with the currency balance ...
So, if the revenue is not enough for the “old” investors, then where will the “new” come from? No one will invest in the economy on such conditions, this is nonsense! And if no one invests in the economy, then it will not grow, but will fall. First, slowly, as now, and then faster and faster. Liberals in the government and the Central Bank see this (although they cannot recognize it) and are trying to accelerate the flow of foreign investment. They clearly do not understand the reason for the acceleration of capital outflows, and they proceed from their old “mantra” that high inflation is to blame. And they begin to reduce it. What they can do only due to the contraction of the money supply.
But this means that problems with cash payments begin in the country. That this thing is extremely dangerous from an economic point of view, as I tried to explain to the liberals back in the distant 1996 year. Neither then, nor now, for ideological reasons, they did not want to accept this explanation. Then it was expressed in default, today the problems are largely similar, although so far they have not reached the same scale. But, since enterprises need to sell their products and buy raw materials and components, because banks need to make payments, and there are no rubles (they are fighting inflation!), They take (cheap!) Loans in foreign currency. In the West. And the accelerated growth of lending in the West is simply the flip side of the struggle of liberal monetary authorities with inflation!
I repeat once more - the liberal monetary authorities of Russia are stupidly repeating the idiotic program of Gaidar-Chubais-Dubinin-Kudrin-Aleksashenko, which in three years (2006-2008) led our economy to collapse and default. Yes, due to the fact that oil prices are higher than then, this program goes slower, but the essence of it does not change and the result (if they manage to complete it) will be the same. Therefore, it is not necessary to ask why debts are growing. It is enough just to see what was in the middle of the 90's. The understanding of our liberals has not changed a bit since then.
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