Military Review

Forecast for 2014 year: what to expect in the world

32
Forecast for 2014 year: what to expect in the worldI will begin my forecast for the beginning 2014 year with the analysis of the forecast for the past year, 2013. It began with the main, in my opinion, process - the split of the world elite on the basis of the "Strauss-Kahn case", more precisely, the opinion that it is the consequences of this process that will determine the most significant events in the past year. If we talk about politics, we cannot disagree with this; it suffices to mention Obama's speech at the UN General Assembly, in which he actually openly said that the current US leadership is ready to consider the issue of leaving many regions of the world.


Of course, there are forces in the USA that absolutely do not want this (and there are serious disagreements within them), but the manifestation of their contradictions in 2013 could be noticed at every step. If in 1999, 2003 or even 2011, the attempts of the world community to resist the global elite, who wanted war and annihilation of the legitimate authorities of certain countries, were completely hopeless, then in 2013 the war in Syria managed to stop and even put terrorists in some limits, limiting their assistance by external forces. You can, for example, note such a wonderful circumstance as the refusal of the British Parliament to give the right to support separatist terrorists in Syria, demanded by Prime Minister Cameron.

There were other events in 2013 that the previous 20 years seemed impossible: this is the “Snowden case” (more precisely, the support he received in various parts of the world) and the defeat of the Brussels bureaucracy in Ukraine (signing of an association agreement with the EU It was precisely the political project of the “Atlantic” elite), a statement about the possibility of participation in the Customs Union (CES) by Turkey and Israel. You can also add the US refusal to put pressure on Iran and, as a result of this, the announcement of Saudi Arabia and Israel of its strategic alliance.

All this could not have happened if the liberal elite, defining international politics in the 90-e-2000-e years, still wrote the rules of the game. In this sense, the description of the split of this elite as the main process defining the 2013 processes of the year was absolutely correct.

The second fundamental point, noted in the forecast, was the role of dollar emission. Here, too, the deviation from reality was minimal: taking into account the fall in aggregate private demand and its gradual replacement by the demand of states (with an increase in government debt, of course), it was the dollar issue (and, like its weak similarity, the issue of the yen and some other regional currencies) kept the situation . Of course, the negative consequences of such emissions also occurred, but we will discuss them in the forecast part.

It should be noted that the processes of regionalization of the markets, which were also mentioned in the forecast, as a result, the dollar emission also showed itself quite actively. It may be noted, for example, strengthening the position of the yuan and its output to the second (after the dollar) place in international trade. But a more or less accurate analysis of this process is impossible, since statistics show currency turnover together for trading and speculative transactions, and in this situation it is almost impossible to calculate the exact share of the dollar in the world trade system, because forex turnover is orders of magnitude more. It is important to note that the fundamental destruction of the dollar financial system has not yet occurred, since the prices of world markets are still formed in dollars.

The forecast specifically talked about strengthening control over offshore companies and tax evasion - and Russian citizens saw with their own eyes the relevant processes. At the same time, our country here is following common processes, which is clear from the fact that if this were not the case, the Russian liberals, who control economic and financial policies in the country, would have been able to suspend this process in our country. It is clearly not in the interests of their “senior” partners, whom I called the forecast “alchemists” (and in some other texts, “percentages”) and who today are in a difficult situation. I was mistaken only in terms of the “Tobin tax” - the “percentages” managed to stop the adoption of this tax in the European Union through the courts. However, as an alternative, the approval of the “Volcker rule” in the USA, which represents a partial restoration of the Glas-Stigal law, which prohibited speculation with other people's money, was adopted during the Roosevelt era in 1933 and canceled at the request of the global financial elite in recent months. the Clinton presidency at the very end of 2000 of the year.

You can also note what happened in 2013 year, the attempt of the “percentages" to return to the control of the Fed by appointment to the post of its head Larry Summers. This maneuver failed, Summers was forced to withdraw his candidacy himself, but the fact that the attempt itself was not reflected in the forecast is some of its shortcomings.

I was also mistaken in terms of the fact that states will begin to create an alternative to liberal economics. Although at the private level, such attempts are being made (even in Russia, although the Ministry of Education, controlled by liberals, in particular, in the person of HSE, strictly forbids any alternative to the economic “mainstream”), for example, a group of British professors said it was going to reconsider the methodology of teaching economics, This process has not received state support yet. Apparently, the control of the economics lobby turned out to be stronger than I had assumed, or the matter is in the self-zoning of politicians who categorically refuse to recognize the real state of affairs in the economy. It should be noted that economists actively support the political elite in the framework of its policy “everything is fine, beautiful marquise”, which also weakens the realists from other economic schools who talk about how things really are.

The forecast noted that in 2013 the volume of cross-border trade will fall, in particular, reference was made to the Baltic Dry Index, which at the end of 2012 reached its minimum. This part of the forecast was not realized - the index over the past year has more than doubled (which, however, is still much lower historical maximums), which suggests that the degradation processes in the economy are still going relatively slowly, and emission still plays its positive role. At this point, I hurried a little.

Overly optimistic, I looked at the situation in the countries - potential regional leaders. Since the destruction of a single world division of labor is slower than I had anticipated, regional positive processes, in particular, the intensification of the investment process in some countries, are still lagging behind. But China’s problems were described quite adequately, and the decisions of the last Plenary Meeting of the CPC Central Committee showed that the Chinese leadership is fully aware of the problems that have arisen. True, it does not yet have a clear and clear plan for overcoming them without serious negative consequences for the economy and the system of the country's social relations.

It should be noted that in my forecast I directly wrote that Turkey has no other way but to deepen relations with the Customs Union, which then seemed a rather bold conclusion. Which, however, paid off. It should be noted that the Atlantic elites in the EU and the USA (associated with the “mortgage lenders”) are actively oppressing the Turkish leadership today in the expectation that it will change its policy. This is naive enough - in Turkey, forces such as those that "leaked" their countries in Eastern Europe in the 90 years and brought them to total poverty cannot yet come to power. The living standards of the population in the European Union and the United States are indeed falling, but this process is still going very slowly - although noticeably. Currency wars really have not yet led to the destruction of Atlantic unity, but the whole story of Snowden was a serious blow to an attempt to create a free trade zone in the North Atlantic. And all these processes were the result of a split in the world elite.

Arguments about the growth of problems in the financial sector and the strengthening of the role of gold have not yet fully realized, although, let's say, an understanding of the problems of the banking sector has already become completely public knowledge. It’s another thing that while the financial elite purposefully omitted gold, they were clearly unable to achieve their goals (below 1000 dollars per troy ounce). In general, most likely, the processes described in the forecast will be continued in the coming year.

Another indirect sign that the situation had not improved was a very half-cut reduction in the Fed’s issuance programs by the end of the year. Actually, the Fed is "caught on the word" - Bernanke once promised that if some indicators (inflation and unemployment) become "better than ...", then he will begin to reduce the corresponding programs. Since statistical agencies usually modify statistics not by falsifying numbers (although this happens), but by changing the methods, recently these methods have become overly optimistic. And the local improvement of the economic situation led to the release of official figures for the promised borders - which forced the Fed to act.

At the same time, if the situation would really improve, the tightening of monetary policy would have to be more convincing. And it was also impossible to abandon the tightening, since the emission practically does not have a positive effect on the real sector of the economy, limiting itself to inflating a bubble in the stock market. In general, the attempt to confine to bare words and spells forced the Fed to perform actions that in reality became only a demonstration of its powerlessness in the current situation.

Considerations on commodity markets and regional processes are generally reflected. In particular, migration processes have clearly grown. Moreover, although no one has yet begun a real limitation on labor migration within the European Union, talk about it has already begun - which means that as the economy falls, such restrictions will be introduced fairly quickly. In general, it can be noted that the forecast as a whole fairly adequately reflected the processes occurring in the world, although they clearly proceeded somewhat faster than I had supposed, in the political sphere and lagged behind in the economic sphere.

And now it's time to move to the forecast part. It is clear that those processes that determined the situation in the past year will find their continuation and the year that has begun, for this reason they should be considered first of all. First macro. If we talk about inflation, then in the second half of last year a deflationary tendency was clearly evident - against the background of a decrease in private demand, prices for raw materials also fall. More precisely, the infrastructural component of the rise in prices has not gone away (in the US it is around 3 – 4%), while the rise in prices due to the increase in demand has almost stopped. Actually, official (underestimated) consumer inflation in the United States is now about 2%, and its real value is about 4%, but, apparently, it is no longer possible to reduce this value through purely macroeconomic processes. Well, except that the decline in private demand will reach the level of the beginning of the 30-s, that is, of the order of 1% per month.

If we talk about other indicators, then, most likely, the tendency of the previous year will continue, which is that a sluggish depression is developing, which the authorities of all developed countries are actively trying to stop. The main instrument here is the issue and support of individual financial institutions that have fallen into crisis, as well as stimulation of individual industries or groups of industries. A classic example is the decline in energy prices in the United States, which has had a local effect over the past two years. Of course, he could not interrupt the basic economic trends, but he clearly created some positive moments.

The key point here is the “dump” point, that is, the moment when somewhere in a certain country or sector of resources there is frankly not enough, which will lead to the beginning of a rapid recession. It is quite difficult to specify it precisely, but there are several potentially dangerous places that it makes sense to describe. The most important of them is the US stock market. There, the bubble has clearly formed, and there is a serious likelihood that it will burst in 2014 year. In this case, it will inevitably be the beginning of a new round of crisis, according to many experts, comparable in scale to the autumn of the 2008 year. It is possible that even stronger, because then we managed to stop the crisis due to massive emissions, and now, firstly, its effectiveness for the real sector will be extremely low (the consequences of numerous “ku”), and, secondly, it will lead to high inflation, which in itself is extremely dangerous (since the credit multiplier is already quite small).

What can cause the start of a stock market crash? It can be either “dispersed” (in the sense that just the level of risk of losing their capital from the point of view of participants and without some obvious external cause will become prohibitively high and they will begin to massively exit the market) or “concentrated” . The latter may be some unexpected unpleasant news, for example, a sharp deterioration in the parameters of the Chinese economy (see below), or even political reasons (see below for arguments on geopolitical processes), there may be some sort of natural disaster on a large scale. Theoretically, a major terrorist act could also be the cause (the likelihood of this is all the more so because mid-term elections to the US Congress will take place in November, which could be the beginning of a fundamental change in the overall political picture in this country).

It seems to me that if there is no such obvious reason, then the US market in 2014 will not collapse, since the optimism of all participants is supported not only by state propaganda, but also by their own understanding that for each of them this collapse may be the last. In such a situation, the general desire to “continue the banquet” will most likely fail without some external reason. Another thing is that the scale of this cause will shrink all the time as the bubble expands - so by the spring of the 2015 of the year, it is possible that the panic may already start almost from scratch. In a sense, this is an analogue of a supercooled liquid: to some decrease in temperature below zero for the appearance of ice, a “crystallization center” is needed, if there is no ice, no ice is formed. But as the temperature decreases, the scale of such a center all the time decreases and at some point local unions of several molecules, which are constantly formed as a result of thermal motion, can already act as such. And - the crystallization process begins.

It makes sense to talk about other commodity and speculative markets, since theoretically there are two different scenarios for their development. The first one was announced in his forecast by Oleg Grigoriev, who said that the need to place money somewhere that had accumulated in unbelievable quantities among some financial institutions would lead to a scenario like the middle of 2000, that is, rising stock prices developing countries and the growth of other, secondary financial bubbles. This scenario seems to me not quite true, and here is why. The fact is that, firstly, any bubble is inflated by speculators for a reason, and in order to cause an influx of money to ordinary "physicists" who, due to their number, take the initiative of speculators and allow them to exit the market, fixing a profit. Today, the situation is different - the “physicists” simply do not have money, the mechanism for bringing emission funds to them already practically does not work, then there would be no saving for consumer expenditures, saving and speculation are out of the question.

Secondly, the risks have risen sharply. It was good in the middle of 2000-x, when no one believed in a serious collapse. Today, everyone takes into account this probability, and therefore - the policy of speculators will be much more cautious. In fact, there can be no talk about long-term investments in such a situation, and short-term ones are possible only in those markets that have very high liquidity, that is, an opportunity to quickly sell the corresponding assets. Most of all this corresponds to the forex market (why I believe that in 2014, the volatility of cross-exchange rates will be much higher than in 2013), a bit less - the US stock market. But the commodity markets (which form the 2 – 3 market maker) and especially the stock markets of developing countries do not meet this condition.

Third, the stimulation of commodity markets will cause a sharp increase in cost inflation. Against the background of serious problems in the real sector and the fall in private demand, there is no reason to expect a growth in lending to the real sector - which means that we are waiting for massive bankruptcies and a reduction in real wages. That is - a further decline in demand and a fall in the GDP of the main producing countries. Including the United States and the European Union. It is unlikely that such a policy will be supported by the majority of governments that have enough leverage to restrict it (including through controlled central banks).

In general, it seems to me that in the beginning of the year the markets will most likely behave according to a depressive scenario. Moreover, those of them that still look quite promising today may gradually come out of this status in the near future, since the risks and fears of speculators will increase all the time. In other words, the areas of profitable capital investment in the 2014 year will be gradually reduced, although it is rather difficult to estimate the speed of this process a priori. But here, too, a part of the previous forecast needs to be repeated: infrastructure projects in countries with potential regional leaders will become more and more relevant. However, if the slow depression of the economy does not accelerate for some reason, then perhaps this process will be almost imperceptible.

It makes sense to go to the factors that can accelerate the negative processes in the economy. They are connected, first of all, with that split, which was formed in the world financial elite and which extremely limits the possibilities of all its parts. In any case, I will say once again what I have said several times in recent years. The listed forces are not structured groups that have their own recognized leadership, middle link and, so to speak, rank and file. Rather, they are groups of people who clearly see their interests and opportunities in one direction or another and, to the extent possible, coordinate their interests with those for whom they believe their interests coincide. Moreover, if the “interest holders” have a more or less pronounced coordinating center (these are the IMF and the structures associated with it), then the “money changers” have no such thing. At the same time, since the split in the elite occurred quite recently, there are still people who have not finally decided on their position, a similar situation with many financial and state institutions.

In accordance with our analysis (and here I do not insist on absolute truth, if someone is ready - I will listen to other options with interest) of such groups are three. Two, so to speak, global ones are “money changers” and “lenders”, and one so far is global, but ready to come to terms with its regional future, this is the part that today relies on the Obama administration and the current leadership of the Fed. It should be noted that following the results of the crisis, this third group will be systemically equivalent, say, to Chinese, Latin American, or Eurasian. But for now it controls the emission of the world reserve and trading currency, the dollar, and in this sense it is quite comparable in power with the first two.

The first two groups are incompatible in principle - because “money changers” build a system of relatively independent financial centers (which need an intermediary infrastructure, which, in fact, personify money changers), and “lenders” can exist only in the case of a single monetary and financial system , and exclusively within the control of the emission center of this main currency. As for the American group, in theory, it can get along with those and others, but today Obama is clearly affected by money changers. And because the “lenders” are clearly trying to wrest control over the Fed (they urgently need money to maintain the global financial infrastructure), and because for financiers “lenders” the government’s foreign policy (including US policy) is this is just a tool, and for Obama - a source of costs, resources for which are not enough.

If Obama’s policy does not change (for now, only the elections in November can change it, and even then, if their results are frankly “anti-Bamovian”), then the fight between these groups will go on with a gradual increase in the defeat of the “lenders”. In other words, the main “players” associated with this group (the largest international banks, the World Bank, the WTO, the offices of international organizations, the Brussels bureaucracy of the European Union, the “liberal elite of the post-Soviet countries, etc.) will gradually give up their positions this year. Specifically for Russia, I will talk about this situation separately, in the forecast for our country, as for the rest of the countries and regions, we will have to deal with them separately each time, since it is difficult to say which of the tactical battlefields will take the first place today.

Although some of these fields can be noted. There will be a desperate fight for Ukraine, and by itself it is of no interest to anyone, but it is principled from the point of view of the fight “money changers” and “percentages”. The position of the latter is voiced by Brzezinski. As for the “money changers,” Ukraine itself is not interested in them, but they are interested in the emergence of a Eurasian center of power and, conversely, are not interested in strengthening the “Atlantic” plans of the Brussels bureaucracy. Hence, the second “battlefield” - the creation of the North Atlantic free trade zone, which, when implemented, will turn Western Europe into a kind of present-day Eastern Europe (that is, a raw material appendage of the United States) and deprive the “change” of their main base. The third place in which the fight will go especially sharply is Russia, which should become the basis of Eurasian integration, but which so far makes every effort to prevent this from happening because the financial and economic policy is determined by the appointees of the “lenders” represented by liberal privatizers 90-ies and their heirs.

In any case, since the total amount of resources of the “interest holders” is reduced, they will tend to organize all sorts of provocations, such as major terrorist attacks, regional wars, and so on, aimed at improving their control over the global financial system. This is due to the fact that it is this group that still controls the global speculative markets and economic media, except for the Middle East understandable to everyone (the probability of a war on which, of course, has decreased, but still not to zero).

But let us return from politics to economics, more precisely, to the regional aspects of the forecast. At first - about the European Union. The economic problems in it, which are already very large, will increase, moreover, in two directions at once. The first is protests in poor countries, linked to rising unemployment and insufficient support from the EU. The second is protests in rich countries (first of all in Germany), whose population against the background of falling living standards will protest against too large deductions. In addition, protests against labor migration, both illegal and legal, from poorer to less poor EU countries will increase.

The worse the economic situation in the EU is, the more aggressive will be the leaders of its individual countries on the world stage (a typical example is Hollande in the 2013 year), however, in my estimation, there will be no fundamental changes from the past year in the 2014 year. The parties will win more and more aggressive elections in local elections (compared to 2000's toothless liberal “alternative”), and the main opponents of the previous decade will increasingly merge into a single liberal party with only one goal: authorities and maintain the current EU system for which there are no longer any resources. Theoretically, a sharp collapse can occur, but only as part of a serious collapse in the US stock markets, which in the 2014 year seems unlikely in the event of a natural development of events and slightly more likely in the case of special incentives. And, of course, a collapse can occur if a party comes to power in one of the EU countries and defaults on its obligations. It seems unlikely today, but ... "Never say never."

The second fundamentally important region is the Middle East. Here the situation has more or less cleared up, the United States has clearly relied on Iran as the main regional ally (and the choice was made not only because Iran is the most powerful country in the region, but also because it is the most predictable and negotiable). But such a choice was made within the framework of the policy agreed with the "money-changers" and Obama, and he absolutely does not like the "percentages". For this reason, the latter may have various excesses related to attempts to unleash a major regional war (after which the financial structures through which it will be financed will receive powerful sources for their development). The probability of such a development is not very high, but it is quite positive, so it would be wrong to disregard such a scenario.

The next fundamentally important region is China. Theoretically, of course, there is still Afghanistan, Pakistan, India - but they are unlikely to be the instigators of serious changes, the situation there, rather, follows the development of affairs in other regions. But in China there are serious problems - the most severe structural crisis, a mirror image of the crisis in the United States. It is only expressed in that the Chinese economy can no longer afford to stimulate domestic demand. An attempt was made to “stir up” the rural sector as much as possible, to make it an independent profit center, in fact, to increase the level of division of labor in it, but at the first stage it will not lead to an increase in demand for export goods. The main question is whether the financial bubbles caused by stimulating domestic demand will burst in 2014. It seems to me that not yet, even a sharp drop in private demand in the West in the event of a collapse of the US stock market, most likely, will have little effect on the situation of China's 2014. And in this way, China will gradually form a RMB currency zone.

Latin America. There will be a complex process of consolidation of the Latin American currency zone under the leadership of Brazil. At the same time, the potential of this zone will be quite high, since it needs to build a serious infrastructure, which can be the reason for serious investments in the region (both internal and external). Their return is possible at the first stage due to the export of raw materials, then - due to the issue of regional currency. It should be noted that Russia has the same development option, but it is not yet feasible, due to the control over the economic policy of the comprador bourgeoisie. How quickly the corresponding understanding will come to the participants in economic processes is a difficult question. In 2013, I already made a similar assumption and made a mistake, so the final conclusion about the beginning of the relevant processes is rather virtual.

USA. Here in the coming year there are two main issues that are closely related: elections and the state of the stock market. And if the second can be transferred to 2015 year, then the first will have to be resolved in any case in early November. The main problem in assessing the situation (which, in fact, will determine the situation in the economy, and therefore seems important in this forecast) is that the current political model of the United States, built on the dichotomy of "Republicans" - "Democrats" (as conservatives and liberals) within the same economic model, no longer works. The split between the “H. Clinton group” and the “Obama group” (from which it is not yet known who will go to the presidency in 2016) is much stronger than, say, between the “Clinton group” and the “neocon” republicans.

This situation is connected with what we have already said - with the split of the global financial elite. But, as a result, it is very difficult to predict what, for example, a “good” election result is for Obama. It seems to me that for him the victory of economic realists (such as supporters of Ron Paul) from the Republican Party is a much more pleasant result than the staggering victory of the Democratic Party, if it is achieved by increasing the representation of supporters of H. Clinton. How can I explain this interpretation to voters “on the ground”, I can not imagine.

At the same time, the “percentages” desperately need to change the balance of forces in their favor, and I do not rule out that they will be able to construct such a position that a collapse in the markets just before the elections will give them some perspective due to the weakening of Obama’s position. Again, the “percentages" badly need the victory of the "neocons", not the realist Republicans, but here we will carefully watch the election campaign and try to isolate the relevant moment if it appears. So, if such a political structure is built, then there are chances of accelerating the financial crisis. Otherwise, everything will develop more or less calmly, most likely, the crisis will be transferred to 2015 year. As for the other indicators, here everything will go within the framework of a sluggish depression, similar to the past year. So far, the US monetary authorities still have the resources to close local problems - such as lower world oil prices (this can dramatically reduce the profitability of the entire shale energy sector) or deterioration in China.

Russia remains - but a separate text will be written for it in the near future.
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32 comments
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  1. 2014Bog2014
    2014Bog2014 19 January 2014 07: 34
    0
    Why not wait !!! repeat
    1. Civil
      Civil 19 January 2014 08: 23
      +49
      Not forecasts need to be made, but work.
      1. The ban on lending to systemically important enterprises abroad, because corporate debt is a hidden form of withdrawing money abroad, and the debt will soon become equal to 2 GDP.
      2. Nationalization of those enterprises whose beneficiaries are offshore firms.
      3. The ban on the participation of Russian citizens in foreign hedge funds.
      4. Deprivation of citizenship of relatives of terrorists and deportation to Saudi Arabia through the sale of property.
      5. The ban on the activities of foreign religious figures in Russia.
      6. Create a post of prosecutor for supervision in the primary sectors of the economy.
      1. Gardamir
        Gardamir 19 January 2014 08: 36
        +14
        I agree with the points, but these questions are not for Mikhail Khazin. Only the federal president can solve them.
        1. GreatRussia
          GreatRussia 19 January 2014 09: 12
          +11
          Quote: 2014Bog2014
          Why not wait !!! feel

          Olympiad, February 23rd, May 9th, vacation, birthday, etc. repeat
          1. Sakmagon
            Sakmagon 19 January 2014 09: 44
            +9
            Olympiad, February 23, May 9, vacation, Birthday ...

            Thoughts stretched size -
            The reader does not take a nap ...
            You and Wasserman should take an example
            It’s clear, simple, concise, accurate!
            And he seems to write wisely
            From all sides, the aspect affected
            FOUR THOUSANDS words waved -
            Thought spread ... on concrete ...
            ...
            Maybe I wanted to know
            Yes, it just became too lazy to read ...
      2. atalef
        atalef 19 January 2014 09: 11
        +12
        Let those, I will make a few comments about
        Quote: Civil
        1. The ban on lending to backbone enterprises abroad, because corporate debt is hidden

        While taking a loan abroad is more profitable than in Russia, this will continue. Therefore, (it seems to me) the adoption of this provision will only lead to the fact that Russian banks (actually becoming monopolists in the domestic market) simply cut even more and raise the interest rate
        Quote: Civil
        2. Nationalization of those enterprises whose beneficiaries are offshore companies

        This will lead to the fact that (it’s not free nationalization) you have to redeem it (or they will drag it by international courts, because these enterprises are usually open joint-stock companies), it turns out that for public money you will receive an unmeasured number of enterprises in state property , for the management of which you will have to hire another army * of effective managers * - which is clear what will lead to.
        Quote: Civil
        The ban on the participation of Russian citizens in foreign hedge funds.

        Nowadays - it’s just not real .tk. You can invest money simply through the Internet. It is not possible to separate the Russian banking system from the world one (let's say, as an example, elementary credit cards. How can you use it abroad), as well as ban the Internet
        Quote: Civil
        Deprivation of citizenship of relatives of terrorists and deportation to Saudi Arabia through the sale of property

        One little thing is missing for this - Saudi’s consent to accept them
        Quote: Civil
        . Prohibition of the activities of foreign religious figures in Russia

        You have forgotten a bit about Orthodox figures the same. Accepting your offer such a thing as * Gifts of the Magi * simply could not get to the believers
        Quote: Civil
        . Create a post of prosecutor for supervision in commodity sectors of the economy

        Then in non-commodity sectors. and then the post of prosecutor for the supervision of prosecutors.
        New Cohort Not Touchable
        Change the system and approach
        1. Civil
          Civil 19 January 2014 10: 31
          +3
          atalef

          These are only ways to complicate, but not ways to win ...
          1. The comment was deleted.
          2. atalef
            atalef 19 January 2014 14: 24
            0
            Quote: Civil
            These are only ways to complicate, but not ways to win.

            What and to whom? hi
        2. matross
          matross 19 January 2014 19: 31
          +2
          Quote: atalef
          Deprivation of citizenship of relatives of terrorists and deportation to Saudi Arabia through the sale of property

          One little thing is missing for this - Saudi’s consent to accept them

          Yes, where to send - is not important. Who will accept - there and send. In Europe, various offended people are very fond of, for example. And the concept of "relative" is not too narrow, cousins-second cousins ​​there too ...
      3. vezunchik
        vezunchik 19 January 2014 10: 51
        +5
        until production develops, there will be no sense. And the development of industry will entail the growth of the working class, and, accordingly, the risk of losing power in the country. Therefore, the management is satisfied with the situation ...
        1. vezunchik
          vezunchik 19 January 2014 10: 56
          0
          Why two comments pops up right away ???
        2. The comment was deleted.
      4. The comment was deleted.
      5. Mikhail3
        Mikhail3 19 January 2014 15: 03
        +3
        The first paragraph will completely destroy all our large enterprises that still exist. Because in our country there are no loans for at least some sane interest. We managed to prevent the direct capture of our banking market by strangers uncles (which would immediately be followed by a loss of sovereignty) and that’s all. The possibility of issuing normal loans is completely blocked by our Central Bank and our bodies of state financial regulation. Plus, desperate sabotage in general of all the leading financial bodies of the country in relation to our production.
        1. aksakal
          aksakal 21 January 2014 09: 55
          0
          Quote: Mikhail3
          The first paragraph will completely destroy all our large enterprises that still exist. Because in our country there are no loans for at least some sane interest. We managed to prevent the direct capture of our banking market by strangers uncles (which would immediately have followed the loss of sovereignty) and that’s all. The possibility of issuing normal loans is completely blocked by our Central Bank and our bodies of state financial regulation. Plus desperate sabotage in general of all the leading financial bodies of the country in relation to our production

          - OOPS, did not read up to your post, posted about the same answer - it is below. I am glad that, although not often, our opinions coincide. Well, judging by the number of pluses, forum users like simple solutions, and by all means that there would be a ban, or else without a ban? What if life seems like honey to a Russian? DO NOT! Therefore, prohibit! And can I also say about prohibitions? But "forbid NOT to think with your head when making decisions in complex problems" - how do you like this ban?
      6. nycsson
        nycsson 19 January 2014 17: 46
        +1
        Quote: Civil
        Not forecasts need to be made, but work.

        It is necessary to nationalize strategic objects and enterprises .....
      7. igor.borov775
        igor.borov775 20 January 2014 09: 24
        0
        Hello Mr. Civilian, write about what, Wake up, you dig under the president and his team, but in fact under the entire structure of power, This will not happen, We are not China, This elite and business have reached an agreement and solve problems together, Forget our disease called liberalism in the ugliest form is gaining momentum, Any very good undertakings, besides positive ones, give a strange effect in society, Please answer yourself why any good undertaking needed by everyone always turns into such a rejection in society and a terrible negative, Why, Everything is known in comparison now being made tremendous efforts in educating young people in the spirit that everything and our history and our lives suck or lie, On the screens of the box, our president beaming with a smile says our story is very rich it must be taught to whom he says, Any schoolboy will say garbage there is nothing interesting, And our neighbors, India, China, greatly honor their history with all the tragedies and successes. Young people are growing rapidly and will soon be managed with it’s painful for me that they know more about England and the USA and very little about us and our country, I really like the rule introduced in China every ten years and the power is transferred to another generation, All the top officials leave their posts and they came up with the name CHANGE OF GENERATIONS, And at US read the country’s development forecasts for three years. YOU are not surprised at all, especially as GNP growth rates are now expressed !!! With respect,
      8. aksakal
        aksakal 21 January 2014 09: 49
        0
        Quote: Civil
        The ban on lending to backbone enterprises abroad, because corporate debt is a hidden form of withdrawing money abroad, and the debt will soon become equal to 2 GDP.

        - To do this, you need to change the article according to which the Russian Central Bank DOES NOT HAVE THE RIGHT TO CREDIT Russian second-tier banks, at least the best of them are Sberbank or VTB. I do not understand the nature of this prohibition in post-Soviet countries, since The Bank of England lends to its STBs, and the current rate of such lending is called the LIBOR rate. The FRS does the same with other STBs, the current rate is called the discount rate. Now they are there pactically at zero, that is, US and British STBs receive loans from their Central Banks practically free of charge and therefore can, having thrown a couple of percent of their gesheft, transfer loans to Russian strategic enterprises. And Russian banks can only offer more expensive loans, because they do not have enough money for everyone, and the collected deposits from the population are even less. I was hoping for Nabiullina in this matter, but she is still busy with the "dirty money" of banks that launder dirty money. This is also a necessary business, but it would be time to get down to business. You can implement:
        Quote: Civil
        Ban on lending to backbone enterprises abroad

        , get a practical stop, because they will be in a very losing position in front of Western competitors who have access to cheap credit. Why were you given the pluses? For a simple solution to a complex issue? As the forum users like to "administer", just to prohibit something and then wait for the manna from heaven to fall from the sky. Here you go - "ban!", And 48 pluses at once. And think?
        Quote: Civil
        Nationalization of those enterprises whose beneficiaries are offshore companies.

        I agree.
        1. aksakal
          aksakal 21 January 2014 09: 49
          0
          Quote: Civil
          Ban on the participation of Russian citizens in foreign hedge funds

          why is that? Again, the citizen cannot dispose of his own and earned? From which he paid taxes in general ... And what would a citizen of Russia himself not want to participate in these funds - do not think in any way? Why don't you post then: "a ban on summer vacations in Turkey, that everything developed in Sochi!" After all, you know that there will be no sense - and Turkey will be offended, and the Russians are unhappy, and Sochi will not help in any way, except for the absurd prices for EVERYTHING, nothing will appear there.
          Quote: Civil
          Deprivation of citizenship of relatives of terrorists and deportation to Saudi Arabia through the sale of property.
          - So Saudi Arabia will not accept them. In Sunny Magadan, without the right to leave the territory for ... Otherwise, everyone in Moscow and Kazan is bursting with life. These are developed cities, the infrastructure is good, everyone wants to live there. And who will improve Magadan as well? So let them improve because your cousin is a terrorist.

          Quote: Civil
          Prohibition of the activities of foreign religious figures in Russia
          - it’s impossible to really push it, but with the help of the appropriate laws it is impossible to strictly regulate, but it IS NECESSARY!

          Quote: Civil
          Create a post of prosecutor for supervision in the primary sectors of the economy.

          - then create a post of the prosecutor overseeing the activities of the prosecutor for supervision in the primary industries -)))). I don’t understand what gives the creation of another structure of parasites?
    2. sledgehammer102
      sledgehammer102 19 January 2014 08: 37
      +1
      The forecast noted that in the 2013 year the volume of cross-border trade will fall, in particular, a reference was made to the Baltic Dry Index, which reached its minimum at the end of the 2012 year. This part of the forecast was not realized - the index over the past year has more than doubled


      Now look at the chart. As it can be seen, Khazin did not lie, but told the [b] sex [/ b] the truth, namely, the whole 2013 year this index could not return to December 2012 (blue chart), and after the rapid growth [b] over the past month [2013 of the year / b] crashed again at 40% in just 2 weeks. Therefore, I say that TRENDS are more important than FACTS.
      Yes, the index for the 2013 year more than doubled during a head-on comparison between December 2012 and December 2013, but this growth was only at the end of the year, which went into a tailspin immediately after the start of the next, and the whole 2013 year it stomped below the level of December 2012 .... Eh Hazin Hazin ....

      About the same way our liberals shout about the population, for example, over the past thirteen years the population has decreased by 3 million people - FACT, but the TREND shows that it was reduced to 2009, and with 2010 it has been growing steadily, and with 2012 already due to the natural growth of the population .
      That is, it was right to say that the population from 1999 to 2009 decreased more and more at a slower pace, and as a result decreased by 4,5 million people, but from 2010 to 2012 it grew steadily and grew by 1,5 million people. The picture will already be more objective.
      1. atalef
        atalef 19 January 2014 09: 19
        +7
        Quote: sledgehammer102
        . As it can be seen, Khazin did not lie, but said floorthe truth


        In this I completely agree with you. And as you know, half truth is worse than a lie, so it represents an attempt to fit extremely convenient data for itself - to compose a distorted picture.
        This is Khazin's master. In general, it seems to me just a PR man from the economy. So far, not one of his predictions has come true.
        So a forecaster and I can be
        1. Boris55
          Boris55 19 January 2014 09: 38
          +4
          Quote: atalef
          ... In general, it seems to me just a PR man from the economy. While not one of his predictions came true ...

          As Livshits, a former Russian finance minister, said: "The economy is like a girl. Who will understand her"
          The entire economy of the world is planted on evergreen puppets, the printing press of which belongs to a private company called the Fed and their decisions are little dependent on the needs of the global economy, if not to say that they are completely independent of it. Predicting what kind of decision a private trader will take is a rather ungrateful and little predictable business. It’s easier to predict the weather. All of their predictions are a lie, fuck and provocation.
      2. Dmitry 2246
        Dmitry 2246 19 January 2014 10: 01
        +2
        Quote: sledgehammer102
        Therefore, I say that TRENDS are more important than FACTS.

        Totally agree with you. The forecast is more interesting on the basis of commodity circulation, traffic flows, the development of communications and energy resources. Trends are more distinct and political elites are already being formed to service change.
      3. S_mirnov
        S_mirnov 19 January 2014 20: 20
        0
        Quote: sledgehammer102
        About the same way our liberals shout about the population, for example, over the past thirteen years the population has decreased by 3 million people - FACT, but the TREND shows that it was reduced to 2009, and with 2010 it has been growing steadily, and with 2012 already due to the natural growth of the population .

        And I thought you were a supporter of Putin?
        "Russian President Vladimir Putin, in an interview with Russian and foreign journalists in Krasnaya Polyana, confirmed that he is" a real liberal and adheres to liberal views. "
        And the population in our country has grown due to migrants !!! And in no way at the expense of the Russian indigenous population.
        "Even according to the official reports of the Federal Migration Service for the past year, almost 17 million migrants entered the country, and most of them do not speak Russian. In a number of constituent entities of the Russian Federation, special adaptation centers have already been opened, which, for a small fee, can support migrants when looking for work, obtaining a" registration "And medical insurance and advise on local legislation. The country's leadership insists on the construction of adaptation centers under the auspices of the Federal Migration Service in each region by the beginning of next year, but so far the work is extremely sluggish."
        That's how the Russians are getting bigger, and the Russians are getting smaller. It's time to drive the liberals and individuals masquerading as liberals up to you!
    3. The comment was deleted.
    4. Dilshat
      Dilshat 19 January 2014 13: 33
      0
      About Russia, he said: Russia is drunk and not its mistress, forgive myself.
    5. ShturmKGB
      ShturmKGB 19 January 2014 20: 04
      0
      Man assumes ...
  2. 2014Bog2014
    2014Bog2014 19 January 2014 07: 34
    -2
    Because it is a lie !!!
    1. Stinger
      Stinger 19 January 2014 08: 07
      +16
      lies, he is!
    2. Very old
      Very old 19 January 2014 09: 30
      +5
      And competently - a lie
      Thanks Stinger
      1. alexng
        alexng 20 January 2014 02: 32
        0
        The author did not take into account one more criterion, more precisely a bubble is a bubble of lies. And now, if this bubble bursts, then there will definitely be a complete "ales", both for the interest-holders and for the money changers, and it may burst immediately after the Olympics or even during it.
  3. alone
    alone 19 January 2014 11: 50
    +4
    A year will pass and I will be pleased to read this article again in 2015 and it will become clear what Khazin was right about))
    but now all this is worth nothing. Every second "strategist" who sits in our forum can give such an analysis, starting with throwing back the hooves of the USA and Europe and ending with victorious reports in Syria.
  4. sawmill
    sawmill 19 January 2014 12: 19
    +3
    Very valuable forecast. Straight laid out on the shelves. Everything was predicted by both a distant road and a state house and a lady of spades.
    And do not catch the tongue,
    If something extraordinary does not happen, then the US stock market will not collapse, and if it does, this can create the prerequisites for a sharp drop in the indices, but in general, a sharp change in the policy of the US administration is not forecasted if the November elections do not give too anti-Obama results.

    The value of any forecast in the possibility of its application in practice. In this sense, the value of this forecast is zero.
    1. S-200
      S-200 19 January 2014 18: 00
      +1
      Quote: sawmill
      Very valuable forecast. Straight laid out on the shelves. Everything was predicted by both a distant road and a state house and a lady of spades.

      Khazin blah blah content ... and where is the FORECAST?
  5. individual
    individual 19 January 2014 12: 32
    +1
    Mikhail Khazin writes not at the economic forum, but at the Military Review, so it is advisable to hear fewer "bird" terms used in purely applied financial science.
    We are preoccupied with the development of the Russian and global economies to know what awaits in the industrial and agricultural sectors of the 14-15th years - the levers of the development of society and the armed forces of Russia.
  6. Legate
    Legate 19 January 2014 13: 14
    +2
    Quote: Civil
    Not forecasts need to be made, but work.
    1. The ban on lending to systemically important enterprises abroad, because corporate debt is a hidden form of withdrawing money abroad, and the debt will soon become equal to 2 GDP.
    2. Nationalization of those enterprises whose beneficiaries are offshore firms.
    3. The ban on the participation of Russian citizens in foreign hedge funds.
    4. Deprivation of citizenship of relatives of terrorists and deportation to Saudi Arabia through the sale of property.
    5. The ban on the activities of foreign religious figures in Russia.
    6. Create a post of prosecutor for supervision in the primary sectors of the economy.

    it is certainly necessary to work, but this is not the business of the author of the article, but of the Russian government.
  7. Boris63
    Boris63 19 January 2014 13: 19
    +3
    It is possible to predict, but "man proposes, but God disposes." In a modern economy, inextricably linked with politics, everything can turn upside down at any moment and with politics as well. But to predict who will hit what and where, in principle, it is not possible.
    Wait and see.
  8. Sadikoff
    Sadikoff 19 January 2014 13: 26
    0
    One thing I can say, when the West begins to bend financially and economically, Russia will begin to expand. And there will be no help for them, except for the migration of only specialists to Russia from these countries.
  9. Dante Alighieri
    Dante Alighieri 19 January 2014 14: 47
    +1
    Forecasts are a very complicated matter, and the return on them is by no means strong: you guess it’s fine (and then if the forecast is dominated by positive trends, otherwise you risk gaining the status of “Cassandra's things”), did not correctly assess the trend, which, according to the data, may and it was not at all, just a question about your prof. suitability. Therefore, I, and here thanks to my native university, have vowed to make any predictions about the future, succinctly answering everyone that TIME WILL SHOW. wink wink winked Another moment, when asked to state possible options for the development of the situation, you don’t want to, but to fall into the mud is not solid. So in this article, a respected expert gives the most likely development model, PROBABLE, but certainly not the only one that the author himself hints indirectly.
    So TIME WILL SHOW, well, or WE WILL LIVE SEE. Here is what anyone likes hi
  10. bistrov.
    bistrov. 19 January 2014 15: 07
    0
    Very detailed and sensible analysis, thanks. I put a plus.
  11. Salamander
    Salamander 19 January 2014 15: 37
    +1
    The forecast is VERY cautious and VERY long. You read and do not immediately understand - what did you read? And where was the dog buried? request But this is still not a weather forecast, there is hope for reliability, therefore "+" laughing
  12. Grbear
    Grbear 19 January 2014 17: 30
    +2
    The whole forecast boils down to the confrontation between capitalist "money changers" and "interest-holders".
    Where is the place of Russia? There is no objection to the fact that the "interest-holders" have settled in our government, but the "money changers" are not for the people (the same ..., only in profile). There are no real programs for solving problems, which, so far, are sluggish, but also "voltage meter goes to red". Moreover, the" point of no return "is already visible (articles on education, personnel position in industry, etc.). In general, are there economic schools in Russia, besides the HSE? It's time to gather them together and let them show "whose bread did you eat and why". am
  13. Lumumba
    Lumumba 19 January 2014 18: 20
    +1
    America, for collapse, has too much safety margin, which has developed historically. This means that both the US and the Fed will live and live, maybe even with a slow fading of activity, stretched over the next 10-15 years.

    Russia is developing and gaining strength, but alas, it is not fast, it is hindered by numerous internal problems (fools, roads, State Duma deputies) that cannot be resolved in 5 years, not like in a year. And external problems, such as Ukraine. Terrorism is likely to grow stronger.

    My forecast is that 10 years will be about the same garbage as it is now. Over the next 10 years, various aspects of this garbage will be slightly (globally) improved, while others will be slightly improved. The next president of Russia will be Putin. The Olympics will die down and everything will go according to plan.

    And China over these 10 years will become the flagship of the global technological movement and progress, and probably, by its example, even give people hope for something more than the extinction of the consumer society in petty squabbles, imperialism and homosexuality. It is unlikely that China will go to the annexation of new territories. Communism, primarily a humanistic concept, should not be fooled by Western propaganda.
    1. sawmill
      sawmill 19 January 2014 22: 24
      +1
      I agree with you in almost everything regarding the economy.
      And in China there is no arguing with you, but about the annexation of new (our) territories by China, China would not be so blessed.
      I believe that if we continue to click on the visor in the economy instead of real development and continue to weaken, then the Chinese comrades will sooner or later decide to give us a try.
      The weak in this world have been beaten, beaten and will be beaten.
      And if we weaken, they will tear us and our natural pantry to pieces, regardless of any humanistic ideals of communism.
  14. Watchman
    Watchman 19 January 2014 18: 45
    0
    In 2014, they are to show "Armata", "Kurganets-25" and "Boomerang". Let's hope for the completion of at least the head frigate 22350 and the commissioning of the Monomakh. "Severodvinsk" must overcome trial operation and become the best submarine in the Navy. Also PAK FA should receive a new motor. If so, the year can be called successful.
  15. Lumumba
    Lumumba 19 January 2014 18: 52
    -2
    Quote: Watchman
    In 2014, they are to show "Armata", "Kurganets-25" and "Boomerang". Let's hope for the completion of at least the head frigate 22350 and the commissioning of the Monomakh. "Severodvinsk" must overcome trial operation and become the best submarine in the Navy. Also PAK FA should receive a new motor. If so, the year can be called successful.


    One and a half ships and the prototype of the aircraft (For 6 years already as a prototype), can hardly be called a great success. Under the Soviet regime, the new weapons for the five-year period went through a complete cycle from R&D to mass production.
  16. Russ69
    Russ69 19 January 2014 18: 56
    +1
    Quote: Lumumba
    During the five-year plan, the new weapons went through a complete cycle from R&D to mass production under the conscientious authorities.

    And, the complexity of the technique does not tell you anything ...
  17. Lumumba
    Lumumba 19 January 2014 18: 58
    0
    Quote: Russ69
    And, the complexity of the technique does not tell you anything ...


    Of course he does. Do concepts such as optimization, new technologies, cheaper production tell you anything? With the right approach, they are more than able to compensate for the concept of "technical complexity". Since those times, the production methodology has changed, not to mention the progress.

    The society is focused on eating sneakers and personal enrichment, spitting on others, and not on technological breakthroughs and accomplishments. This is definitely the wrong approach. And with us with great interest they will discuss a new American iPhone, and not a new domestic development.
  18. polkovnik manuch
    polkovnik manuch 19 January 2014 19: 13
    0
    Wait and see ! But it seems that until the statesmen are at the helm, and the effective managers move to distant places, something positive should not be expected.
  19. waisson
    waisson 19 January 2014 20: 02
    +1
    it’s not interesting what awaits the world; I wonder what awaits us after the Olympics
  20. gamer
    gamer 19 January 2014 20: 21
    +1
    Barada Blue is waiting for us all so tighten the belt I already pulled fellow
  21. The comment was deleted.
  22. siberalt
    siberalt 20 January 2014 00: 00
    +1
    Khazin is great, at least in the fact that he is a columnist on the site. True, his predictions never came true. But there is no doubt that he is worthy of a professorship. That's for sure. If life were anew, I would like to study with him at a Soviet university. But it's not that.
    Is it possible to measure life with only one "wallet"? At the same time, to argue from whom they will become thicker or will they be taken away nafig?
    Until there is a common idea organizing a tangle of all the peoples of Russia, nothing (....) will happen. We are not standing on that, but against us.
  23. lx
    lx 20 January 2014 10: 15
    0
    Quote: individ
    Mikhail Khazin writes not at the economic forum, but at the Military Review, so it is advisable to hear fewer "bird" terms used in purely applied financial science.
    We are preoccupied with the development of the Russian and global economies to know what awaits in the industrial and agricultural sectors of the 14-15th years - the levers of the development of society and the armed forces of Russia.

    As can be seen from the signature, Hazin writes on odnako.org. In general, I doubt that he knows about the coexistence of the topwar site. And so this entity is selling its blah blah blah well and has no relation to financial (by the way, it has no economic education) or to any other science at the moment.
  24. stalkerwalker
    stalkerwalker 20 January 2014 10: 50
    +3
    I didn’t minus the article, but didn’t plus it ...
    The analysis is acceptable.
    Forecast...
    Well, any forecast today is a thankless task. Already a weather forecast NOBODY really can not make. And to predict the state of the global financial and political situation in the world is all the more so because there is no established trend (trend), there are no clearly defined development vectors. Everything hangs in a position of uncertainty. Like a snowball at the top of the mountain - where the wind blows from, and where the ball will roll, and what will be the consequence (an avalanche or a ball fall apart) is also not clear.
    "We will see"...