Despite serious pressure from the United States, Afghan President Hamid Karzai refuses to sign the so-called "Agreement on Security Cooperation" with the Americans. This means that the military contingent of Western countries will have no legal basis for remaining in Afghanistan after the 2014 year. And the Americans still have to leave.
Recall: the tenure of the coalition forces in Afghanistan expires in the coming year. Barack Obama promised his voters that the troops would be withdrawn. But despite this, the United States is currently making great efforts to still remain in Afghanistan. Now there are building 9 new military bases. The total military contingent should be around 15 000 military personnel. NATO allies supported the United States. Everything is decided and everything is agreed.
The matter is small - a formal agreement with the government of Afghanistan is needed, allowing the Americans and their allies to stay. Until recently, the government of Hamid Karzai was considered a puppet, and he was not expected to resist such developments. But Hamid Karzai gave the Americans a big surprise. Without signing the agreement, he alone was able to achieve the complete withdrawal of Western troops.
All Western observers are confident that the agreement will still be signed as soon as Hamid Karzai extorts more benefits for him. However, we allow ourselves to doubt it. And that's why.
By signing the agreement and leaving the Americans in the territory of his country, Hamid Karzai will not at all maintain his current position. Fifteen thousand Western troops constitute a ridiculously small amount to contain the Taliban, the Islamic Party of Afghanistan and other armed groups that have joined forces in the fight against the occupiers. The war lasts 13 years. However, the alliance of Western countries could not win over their adversary. Of course, this is if we assume that the defeat of the radical groups was generally assumed. On the true goals of the United States in Afghanistan, you can talk separately. But to think that the fifteen thousandth contingent can cope with the task, which turned out to be impossible for the one hundred thousandth - only children can. And Hamid Karzai certainly does not belong to this category. He, not without reason, accused the Americans of colluding with the Taliban behind his back - he is well aware that a small contingent of American troops will not be able to help in restraining the armed opposition.
In addition, one of the conditions of Hamid Karzai - the signing of the agreement after the April elections - does not suit the Americans. They insisted on immediate signing. US Secretary of State John Kerry even stated that the agreement could be signed without the participation of the obstinate Afghan president. And this means that the Americans themselves do not believe in the possibility of preserving the current Afghan government and are seeking to sign an agreement while it is still possible. That is, they have already written off Karzai and probably have indeed agreed on the presence of their contingent with the Taliban. Simply signing such an agreement with the Taliban is openly unacceptable to them for image reasons.
And further. We have a widespread opinion among many respected experts and observers that we are more interested in the presence of NATO military forces in Afghanistan than in its withdrawal. This view is based on the assumption that Americans are holding back radical forces from controlling the entire territory of Afghanistan. And if NATO forces leave, both Russian border guards and the military will again have to restrain the Taliban movement on the borders of Central Asia.
However, this assumption does not correspond to reality. During the years of the stay of the troops of Western countries in Afghanistan, this country has not become a smaller problem for regional security. Rather the opposite.
Afghanistan is used as a training camp by militants of a wide variety of radical groups. To put it mildly, under the noses of the Americans, militants from the Libyan Benghazi underwent training, who then helped NATO destroy Gaddafi and Libya. A considerable part of the terrorist international fighting in Syria is also trained there. In Afghanistan, members of terrorist organizations from Russia and the countries of Central Asia are quietly trained by the coalition forces.
The government of Pakistan is waging a permanent war on its territory with radical groups that also operate in Afghanistan. A "help" of Americans in the fight against these groups was in strikes with unmanned vehicles on the territory of Pakistan. With an insignificant military significance of such attacks, they have one major consequence - the population of the northwestern provinces supports the radicals in the fight against both the Americans and their own government. And now the purely Afghan problem of radical armed groups has become a real headache for the government of Pakistan. There is no doubt that after the inevitable victory in Afghanistan, they will direct their activity towards the struggle against the Pakistani authorities. But Pakistan is not only a nuclear power, but also the most important transport corridor of China.
In other words, until now the Americans were a factor in Afghanistan, not reducing, but increasing instability. Objectively speaking, in Afghanistan, the Americans fought not with transnational terrorist organizations, but with groups, movements and individual warlords who had no global ambitions outside Afghanistan. And the logical result of this struggle was the transformation of the purely Afghan factions into elements of world jihad, and Afghanistan itself - a headache for the whole world.
And this situation is unlikely to change if the fifteen-thousandth contingent replaces the one hundred thousandth contingent, which has unclear objectives and goals. Such a contingent will not have real military force capable of stopping the advancement of the armed opposition. And in order to train and help the Afghan police and the army, Americans are not required for a long time.
At the end of 2012, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, Zhou Yongkang, signed an agreement with the Afghan government, similar to the one that the United States now wants to sign. China is ready to train and supply Afghan security forces, actively helping them in the fight against terrorist groups. Similar agreements have been signed with Russia. In late December, Sergey Naryshkin visited Afghanistan with a working visit. There, he announced that Russia was ready to increase the training of Afghan security forces and the volume of supplies weapons and ammunition. Earlier, Sergei Shoigu announced the creation of a training center for sappers in Afghanistan. Together with India, Russia will restore a weapons repair plant in Afghanistan. Hamid Karzai signed some security agreements during his visit to Iran.
In general, the fight against terrorist organizations in Afghanistan, which the US and NATO failed to cope with, is ready to take on countries that are directly interested in the success of this fight. And it seems that if the Americans do not interfere, Afghanistan will become a safer place. And so that the Americans could not stay, it turned out to be quite capable of taking care of Hamid Karzai, who had recently been considered their puppet.
This was probably a big disappointment for the USA. Going to surrender Afghanistan to terrorist groups and writing off their recent allies, the Americans clearly could not have imagined that they themselves had already been written off from the decision of the fate of this country.
It's quite funny that until the last moment the Americans did not understand this sincerely. So, trying to put pressure on Hamid Karzai, US Special Representative for Afghanistan, James Dobbins, managed to pass wishful thinking. He said that Vladimir Putin had personally asked Hamid Karzai to sign the agreement. Our Ministry of Foreign Affairs even had to refute the dreams of Americans:
“During the conversation with Hamid Karzai“ on the margins ”of the SCO summit in Bishkek on September 13, the President of the Russian Federation said that the sovereign Afghan government has the right to independently decide whether to sign the above-mentioned document. At the same time, it was stressed that Kabul should clearly represent the consequences of such a step and not allow it to conflict with the interests of third countries. ”
It is worth noting that "third countries" have long seen in the activities of the United States in the Eurasian space a destabilizing role. It is impossible not to rejoice that the Eurasian countries are beginning to work together to get rid of the Americans in their home. And softly, and completely without unnecessary talk. In the coming year, the United States and its allies still face many surprises.