Military Review

Surprises for Americans: yesterday's "world gendarme" squeezed out of our Asia

Surprises for Americans: yesterday's "world gendarme" squeezed out of our Asia

Despite serious pressure from the United States, Afghan President Hamid Karzai refuses to sign the so-called "Agreement on Security Cooperation" with the Americans. This means that the military contingent of Western countries will have no legal basis for remaining in Afghanistan after the 2014 year. And the Americans still have to leave.

Recall: the tenure of the coalition forces in Afghanistan expires in the coming year. Barack Obama promised his voters that the troops would be withdrawn. But despite this, the United States is currently making great efforts to still remain in Afghanistan. Now there are building 9 new military bases. The total military contingent should be around 15 000 military personnel. NATO allies supported the United States. Everything is decided and everything is agreed.

The matter is small - a formal agreement with the government of Afghanistan is needed, allowing the Americans and their allies to stay. Until recently, the government of Hamid Karzai was considered a puppet, and he was not expected to resist such developments. But Hamid Karzai gave the Americans a big surprise. Without signing the agreement, he alone was able to achieve the complete withdrawal of Western troops.

All Western observers are confident that the agreement will still be signed as soon as Hamid Karzai extorts more benefits for him. However, we allow ourselves to doubt it. And that's why.

By signing the agreement and leaving the Americans in the territory of his country, Hamid Karzai will not at all maintain his current position. Fifteen thousand Western troops constitute a ridiculously small amount to contain the Taliban, the Islamic Party of Afghanistan and other armed groups that have joined forces in the fight against the occupiers. The war lasts 13 years. However, the alliance of Western countries could not win over their adversary. Of course, this is if we assume that the defeat of the radical groups was generally assumed. On the true goals of the United States in Afghanistan, you can talk separately. But to think that the fifteen thousandth contingent can cope with the task, which turned out to be impossible for the one hundred thousandth - only children can. And Hamid Karzai certainly does not belong to this category. He, not without reason, accused the Americans of colluding with the Taliban behind his back - he is well aware that a small contingent of American troops will not be able to help in restraining the armed opposition.

In addition, one of the conditions of Hamid Karzai - the signing of the agreement after the April elections - does not suit the Americans. They insisted on immediate signing. US Secretary of State John Kerry even stated that the agreement could be signed without the participation of the obstinate Afghan president. And this means that the Americans themselves do not believe in the possibility of preserving the current Afghan government and are seeking to sign an agreement while it is still possible. That is, they have already written off Karzai and probably have indeed agreed on the presence of their contingent with the Taliban. Simply signing such an agreement with the Taliban is openly unacceptable to them for image reasons.

And further. We have a widespread opinion among many respected experts and observers that we are more interested in the presence of NATO military forces in Afghanistan than in its withdrawal. This view is based on the assumption that Americans are holding back radical forces from controlling the entire territory of Afghanistan. And if NATO forces leave, both Russian border guards and the military will again have to restrain the Taliban movement on the borders of Central Asia.

However, this assumption does not correspond to reality. During the years of the stay of the troops of Western countries in Afghanistan, this country has not become a smaller problem for regional security. Rather the opposite.

Afghanistan is used as a training camp by militants of a wide variety of radical groups. To put it mildly, under the noses of the Americans, militants from the Libyan Benghazi underwent training, who then helped NATO destroy Gaddafi and Libya. A considerable part of the terrorist international fighting in Syria is also trained there. In Afghanistan, members of terrorist organizations from Russia and the countries of Central Asia are quietly trained by the coalition forces.

The government of Pakistan is waging a permanent war on its territory with radical groups that also operate in Afghanistan. A "help" of Americans in the fight against these groups was in strikes with unmanned vehicles on the territory of Pakistan. With an insignificant military significance of such attacks, they have one major consequence - the population of the northwestern provinces supports the radicals in the fight against both the Americans and their own government. And now the purely Afghan problem of radical armed groups has become a real headache for the government of Pakistan. There is no doubt that after the inevitable victory in Afghanistan, they will direct their activity towards the struggle against the Pakistani authorities. But Pakistan is not only a nuclear power, but also the most important transport corridor of China.

In other words, until now the Americans were a factor in Afghanistan, not reducing, but increasing instability. Objectively speaking, in Afghanistan, the Americans fought not with transnational terrorist organizations, but with groups, movements and individual warlords who had no global ambitions outside Afghanistan. And the logical result of this struggle was the transformation of the purely Afghan factions into elements of world jihad, and Afghanistan itself - a headache for the whole world.

And this situation is unlikely to change if the fifteen-thousandth contingent replaces the one hundred thousandth contingent, which has unclear objectives and goals. Such a contingent will not have real military force capable of stopping the advancement of the armed opposition. And in order to train and help the Afghan police and the army, Americans are not required for a long time.

At the end of 2012, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, Zhou Yongkang, signed an agreement with the Afghan government, similar to the one that the United States now wants to sign. China is ready to train and supply Afghan security forces, actively helping them in the fight against terrorist groups. Similar agreements have been signed with Russia. In late December, Sergey Naryshkin visited Afghanistan with a working visit. There, he announced that Russia was ready to increase the training of Afghan security forces and the volume of supplies weapons and ammunition. Earlier, Sergei Shoigu announced the creation of a training center for sappers in Afghanistan. Together with India, Russia will restore a weapons repair plant in Afghanistan. Hamid Karzai signed some security agreements during his visit to Iran.

In general, the fight against terrorist organizations in Afghanistan, which the US and NATO failed to cope with, is ready to take on countries that are directly interested in the success of this fight. And it seems that if the Americans do not interfere, Afghanistan will become a safer place. And so that the Americans could not stay, it turned out to be quite capable of taking care of Hamid Karzai, who had recently been considered their puppet.

This was probably a big disappointment for the USA. Going to surrender Afghanistan to terrorist groups and writing off their recent allies, the Americans clearly could not have imagined that they themselves had already been written off from the decision of the fate of this country.

It's quite funny that until the last moment the Americans did not understand this sincerely. So, trying to put pressure on Hamid Karzai, US Special Representative for Afghanistan, James Dobbins, managed to pass wishful thinking. He said that Vladimir Putin had personally asked Hamid Karzai to sign the agreement. Our Ministry of Foreign Affairs even had to refute the dreams of Americans:

“During the conversation with Hamid Karzai“ on the margins ”of the SCO summit in Bishkek on September 13, the President of the Russian Federation said that the sovereign Afghan government has the right to independently decide whether to sign the above-mentioned document. At the same time, it was stressed that Kabul should clearly represent the consequences of such a step and not allow it to conflict with the interests of third countries. ”

It is worth noting that "third countries" have long seen in the activities of the United States in the Eurasian space a destabilizing role. It is impossible not to rejoice that the Eurasian countries are beginning to work together to get rid of the Americans in their home. And softly, and completely without unnecessary talk. In the coming year, the United States and its allies still face many surprises.
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  1. makarov
    makarov 17 January 2014 08: 00
    ". Afghan President Hamid Karzai refuses to sign the so-called" Security Cooperation Agreement "with the Americans."

    Doesn't it follow from this that the "Saudi brothers" promised Karzayka money and a guarantee of security in the future ??? For the Russian Federation, anyway, it will be necessary to invest not small funds and forces in order to increase security on the part of Afghanistan.
    1. Orik
      Orik 17 January 2014 08: 26
      But why. Let us recall the pre-American situation: the Taliban's fight against drugs, even Russia, which was in poverty under Elkin, supplied weapons (which we are now disposing of) from our warehouses to the "Northern Alliance" coped well.
      1. AVV
        AVV 17 January 2014 15: 39
        The benefit and its economic interests in the region, Russia must defend as before, and America needs its own bases, to control drug traffic and nothing more, therefore, having driven America out of Afghanistan, it will be possible to more effectively fight drugs !!!
      2. kplayer
        kplayer 18 January 2014 01: 50
        Yeah! coped, sat on the needle half of the country (exaggerating of course).
      3. kplayer
        kplayer 18 January 2014 01: 50
        Yeah! coped, sat on the needle half of the country (exaggerating of course).
  2. Onizuka teacher
    Onizuka teacher 17 January 2014 08: 05
    It is high time. It is better to entrust Afghanistan to China and Russia, the hungry people do not understand us well fed. And of course, helping not by bringing in troops, but by bread and meat thereby showing the people who are on their side and softening their hearts.
    1. wanderer_032
      wanderer_032 17 January 2014 12: 03
      Better yet, explain (with simple and understandable examples) to local farmers that food is much more necessary for their country than the cultivation of opium poppy and the production of heroin.
      1. Geisenberg
        Geisenberg 17 January 2014 14: 08
        Quote: wanderer_032
        Better yet, explain (with simple and understandable examples) to local farmers that food is much more necessary for their country than the cultivation of opium poppy and the production of heroin.

        this is already fantastic. no food compensates the drug profits for the excess profits from opium. it will be necessary for them to pay at least the same amount as they are now receiving. to understand the process, it is easier and cheaper to process their fields with napalm once a month.
        1. Lapotnik
          Lapotnik 17 January 2014 15: 30
          Peasants are paid for bread / water. If at all paid. Or do you think that a simple peon there drives a Mercier?
          Coupons are sheared by those who shout alah akbar with weapons, or still prince, and by no means an ordinary Mujahideen, and those who organized this are, by and large, the lion's share of the participation in the United States itself.
          Remove amers, the top of the most ardent militants, and completely wool at the borders.
          And it is easier for peasants to grow grub and graze cattle in the same fields, which, in principle, in most cases happened before the inclusion of amers in the "fight for crap democracy" and with the drug trade of amers.
          Just read how much the stream of rubbish has increased since the moment our troops left there, and the Americans began to "fight" with drugs in Afghanistan.
          1. askarlad
            askarlad 19 January 2014 18: 48
            As I remember on the news, I read how Hilary Clinton suggested justifying a platoon or company of American soldiers in the mountains of Almaty so that they would save us from Mujahideen with drugs, etc. Then they began to climb in to the border guards saying that we will teach you how to deal with drug trafficking. I don’t remember the name of the representative of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Kazakhstan, but the essence of what he said is simple, we are a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization and we have our own methodology, and if you want to participate, it’s only the type of observers but no more. Maybe somewhere I’m mistaken in something, but this point.
        2. The comment was deleted.
        3. wanderer_032
          wanderer_032 17 January 2014 17: 59
          I agree with Lapotnik completely.
          Since the United States came there, they do their best to promote the drug business there (the whole general there, etc., are interested characters in the share).
          Surely they have an agreement with the local princes. They, in turn, shove the simple people through the local muftis that they cultivate opium poppy by heroin poisoning all infidels, while they themselves stupidly profit from it along with the American generals.
          And all nishtyak.
          In addition to the common people who hunchback in the fields, growing opium poppy (in the name of great jihad), there is practically nothing to eat.
          1. Lapotnik
            Lapotnik 18 January 2014 22: 09
            Here, unfortunately, it is not a matter of profit. Rather, not in the township profit. Remember the opium wars of England against China. In fact, the Americans did the same against the bloc of the USSR, this became a huge help in the collapse.
        4. machete
          machete 19 January 2014 00: 05
          completely in the hole! There seems to be no other way. During the time the Americans were in Afghanistan, drug production has increased significantly.
  3. La-5
    La-5 17 January 2014 08: 36
    Everyone is already fed up with these Coroladian bugs with their democracy.
    1. Kibalchish
      Kibalchish 17 January 2014 11: 34
      If you want, you don’t want, but democracy goes to everyone!
      1. Sergh
        Sergh 17 January 2014 12: 06
        The Yankees, in any case, pursue a policy of instability and devastation in any country where they appear.
        Here is a retired American General Paul Vallely drew himself in Syria with the militants, obviously not brought humanitarian aid to children.

        Christopher dh
        5 days ago (entry modified)
        A retired American general named Paul Vallely was caught on camera with terrorists in Syria.
        1. wanderer_032
          wanderer_032 17 January 2014 18: 59
          I wonder what a retired general can do in Syria calling for the resignation of the government and impeachment to President Obama in the United States?
          Probably for the exchange of experience with "colleagues". laughing
          Then the manual will publish "How to make a coup. For dummies." laughing
          Just the material got interesting about him.

          and further:

      2. Kunar
        Kunar 17 January 2014 18: 17
        Well, we dig it ....
  4. Predator-74
    Predator-74 17 January 2014 08: 39
    Probably all Afghan mothers of children are already scared with scary stories about monsters with a star-striped flag!
  5. Dardanec
    Dardanec 17 January 2014 09: 09
    The article is unambiguous +, I hope all the information is true. Good news regarding Afghanistan comes extremely rarely, mostly only negative and unfavorable forecasts,. And it’s time to drive the Americans back to their island and not let them out. negative
    1. corrado
      corrado 17 January 2014 13: 39
      History moves in a spiral. I hope that soon something similar will be written in history textbooks: 1812 Napoleon with his France, 1945 Hitler with his Germany, 20XX Xxxxx with his America, they tried to take over the world. But in all cases the fatal mistake of the representatives was made: they climbed against Russia ...
  6. askort154
    askort154 17 January 2014 09: 18
    Still, several of Karzai’s presence as an observer in the SCO were not in vain.
  7. kmike
    kmike 17 January 2014 09: 22
    It's funny enough that until the last moment the Americans sincerely did not understand this. So, trying to put pressure on Hamid Karzai, US Special Representative for Afghanistan James Dobbins managed to pass off wishful thinking. He said that as if Vladimir Putin personally asked Hamid Karzai to sign the agreement. Our Foreign Ministry even had to refute the dreams of Americans
    In short, Putin is already acting as the watchman for this unstable globe.
  8. Luzhichanin
    Luzhichanin 17 January 2014 09: 26
    However, however, everything is calm in Kabul!
    1. Kunar
      Kunar 17 January 2014 18: 28
      And in Baghdad?
  9. lukke
    lukke 17 January 2014 09: 28
    Many more surprises await the US and its allies this year
    stock up on popcorn
    1. Vasyan1971
      Vasyan1971 17 January 2014 22: 26
      Do you think Hamid is waiting for the Maidan and the Poppy Spring?
  10. Ramadan
    Ramadan 17 January 2014 09: 29
    Karzai will not go anywhere, will not want to sign for good, so he will sign for bad. The means of pressure on him must be accurate, for sure accounts or relatives in Europe or the United States live. In short, the Americans will find money for him if they really want to.
    1. Andrey57
      Andrey57 17 January 2014 14: 19
      No, Korzai only took cash, he would rather not agree to sign, since the Taliban will turn his head off, but with the Taliban mattresses will not want to officially sign the "surrender", and therefore put pressure on Korzai. If he does not sign an agreement with the mattress toppers, the Taliban will not seek to destroy him, since the whole country will be at their disposal.
  11. Altona
    Altona 17 January 2014 09: 30
    The world "suzerain" apparently has no money for anything ... And without money, who needs his presence? An extra irritant only ...
  12. Nitarius
    Nitarius 17 January 2014 09: 31
    Many more surprises await the US and its allies this year

    I'd like to BELIEVE IT!
  13. Forest
    Forest 17 January 2014 09: 36
    While the Taliban was in Afghanistan, drugs were not produced (almost). Then came "democracy" and drugs became a national product and a hidden weapon of "democracy".
    So who is beneficial to us?
  14. RUS96
    RUS96 17 January 2014 10: 33
    The war lasts 13 years. C'mon !!! This war is not one century.
  15. JonnyT
    JonnyT 17 January 2014 10: 36
    let them clean as soon as possible. Where America is, there is a hotbed of terrorism and instability ..... Although I doubt that they will just give Afghanistan away .....
  16. sergey72
    sergey72 17 January 2014 10: 37
    Well, I don’t know .... In the current situation, it seems to me that the Yankesov’s presence in Afghanistan is beneficial for us ... Well, think for yourself, Afghanistan has a big black hole - let the Yankees have a public debt growing .... then let them have it we can get more troops stuck - it makes it easier for us in case of something .... further, well, coffins, let them drive home a little better they’ll start a civil war early ... We can list for a long time, but there’s only one conclusion: an Afghan meat grinder for staffers, we profitable ...
  17. Soviet_Union
    Soviet_Union 17 January 2014 11: 08
    Afghanistan is a world drug factory. The owners of this factory will drown millions of people in their blood, but they will not give up the source of income. Militants, Taliban and others - to divert public attention.
  18. Alex toll
    Alex toll 17 January 2014 12: 08
  19. Krokodilych
    Krokodilych 17 January 2014 12: 21
    not profitable - thousands of people in Russia die every year from Afghan drug trafficking.
  20. konvalval
    konvalval 17 January 2014 13: 52
    Hence, "brothers from outer space" aliens won't help.
    1. Kunar
      Kunar 17 January 2014 18: 26
      Help, help .... laughing
  21. Vittt
    Vittt 17 January 2014 14: 13
    True - the Colorado potato beetle is more in line with the American flag than the noble bald eagle!
    1. Corsair5912
      Corsair5912 18 January 2014 21: 44
      Quote: Vittt
      True - the Colorado potato beetle is more in line with the American flag than the noble bald eagle!

      There is nothing noble in the bald eagle:
      The American Eagle feeds on carrion, never attacks equal in size and will soon become extinct ... Heinlein "Road of Glory"

      And second opinion
      "Personally, I would not want a bald eagle to be chosen to represent our country. This bird has bad moral traits. She does not earn money by honest labor. You could see her sitting on a dead tree near the river, where she is even lazy to fish herself. , and instead oversees the work of the hawk hunting fish; and when that hardworking bird finally grabs the fish and brings it to the nest for its mate and chicks, the bald eagle pursues it and takes away the prey.
      With all this injustice, he is never at his best, but like people living in cheating and robbery, he is usually a beggar and very often disgusting. In addition, he is cowardly: a small, no more than a sparrow bird tyrant brazenly attacks him and expels him from his plot.
      B. Franklin
  22. The gentleman
    The gentleman 17 January 2014 14: 56
    my good acquaintance, a resident of Afghanistan, at one time said that citizens simply hate the Americans, that all problems are from them. it’s just impossible to walk down the street, they can stop and check at any time. In addition, the problem is with Afghan women who are also being checked, and the check is done by the male gender ...
    The West will look for an excuse to stay anyway. This is a good place to "wiretap" China, SA. Although it cannot be denied that Karzai is afraid of the Taliban, he is well aware that he will be killed calmly. it is easier for him to come to an agreement with the Taliban than to be a vassal of the United States again.
  23. wanderer_032
    wanderer_032 17 January 2014 19: 37
    In general, you can tell them this:

  24. konvalval
    konvalval 17 January 2014 21: 32
    Quote: konvalval
    Hence, "brothers from outer space" aliens don't help the Americans ..
  25. Corsair5912
    Corsair5912 18 January 2014 21: 57
    Intending to surrender Afghanistan to terrorist groups and writing off their recent allies, the Americans clearly could not assume that they themselves had already been written off from the decision of the fate of this country.

    Down and Out trouble started. An example from Afghanistan can take Iraq and expel the Yankees, and there you look South Korea and Japan. And then the turn will reach Europe, Australia, Africa and Latin America.
    1. Alex_Popovson
      Alex_Popovson 22 January 2014 12: 49
      Saudi Arabia is not indicated on the map - there, I don’t remember, are either 3 or 5 American bases.
      And yes, the United States resembles the USSR in the 80s. Just as they lost Africa, Arabs, Cuba, and then the rest of the Warsaw Pact, so the Americans now lose all polymers with precious metals.
      Truth would not have led to chaos. Russia is now not very ready to take under its wing former American "colonies", which means that there is a chance that either the Indians or the Chinese people will hang out there, which is completely tasteless.