Military Review

Ukrainian economy - in a recession without prospects, probability of default in 2015 is high: interview

51
Ukrainian economy - in a recession without prospects, probability of default in 2015 is high: interviewThe economic results of the past year for Ukraine and the prospects for the current 2014 year in an interview with REGNUM were commented by economic expert Boris Kushniruk.


How could you describe the economic results of 2013 for Ukraine?

Positives in the Ukrainian economy over the past year are as follows. After quite hard times for the national currency in 2013, the situation fully stabilized and in fact until September we had a very stable situation, in some months we even had a positive balance of buying and selling currency to the public. The national bank almost never entered the foreign exchange market. From the end of August there was a seasonal annual jump on the hryvnia exchange rate, which to a certain extent was later stabilized. But at the same time, there were certain political events, which to a certain extent created some kind of pressure on the currency. The population as a whole behaved calmly and, moreover, in spite of all the horror stories that the hryvnia exchange rate would depreciate, the people continued to contribute money to deposits, moreover, hryvnia deposits. According to statistics, for 11 months 66 was put on deposits of billions of hryvnias, of which 30 is in foreign currency, everything else is in hryvnia. This is quite indicative in terms of public confidence in the national currency.

As for the negatives - they are much more. Despite forecasts for economic growth in 3,5-4%, we received a fall, which, by the way, could be even more than it is. Practically all branches, except for agrarian sector and retail trade, in ours fall. Industry, transport, construction, energy - all key areas show a fall. The situation improved somewhat in November, but in general the situation is negative and in light of this, my predictions for the 2014 year are rather pessimistic. I do not believe in forecasts about 3% of GDP growth, God forbid that we get more 1%. Agriculture of this growth, as shown this year, will not be able to show - 2013 was extremely successful in terms of yield. With the stability of all other areas of growth will, of course, but - insignificant. But all other areas - industry, transport, construction - will remain in a sad state.

The hopes of the Ukrainian government that Russia will help us will buy Ukrainian products, in my opinion, will not be justified. At present, Russia is creeping into recession. This was forecasted by experts at the beginning of the year, and by the end of the year such forecasts became more noticeable. At the expense of trade, Russia still has a certain GDP growth, but if you take the industry, then there is a fall. All forecasts of industrial enterprises for 2014 are negative. Including the demand for Ukrainian goods will be reduced. Accordingly, it is not necessary to expect that we will grow there.

That is, the problem of 2014 of the year - Ukraine is in recession and has no particular reason to exit it. The global crisis continues, the markets for us will be reduced, Europe will not help us after the rush associated with the failure of the signing of an association agreement with the EU. In Ukraine, a monopolized, corrupt economy and there are no factors that could stimulate demand for Ukrainian products.

In 2013, Ukraine foreshadowed a collapse if it could not attract multibillion-dollar external loans. Kiev tried to negotiate new borrowing with the EU, with the IMF, but finally agreed with Moscow on a 15 billion loan. Will this loan save the Ukrainian economy and will it be possible to attract new borrowing from the IMF?

As for the IMF, we have quite manipulative statements from the government. Like, the IMF put forward unacceptable conditions. They are connected with the fact that Ukraine should make a more competitive economy, which will allow to pay on loans received. And for this, it is necessary to carry out reforms in the gas sector, the agrarian sector, and reform the budget system. The most popular horror story - gas prices will be raised for the population. The IMF proposes today to keep the current model for those segments of the population that have benefits, i.e. some compensation will be provided for them. Thus, there was no reason for extreme concern from the very beginning. But for the Ukrainian government, the refusal to comply with the requirements of the IMF means an unwillingness to carry out any reforms at all. That is, there is a desire to preserve the non-transparent activities of NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy, which is not just ineffective, it is, roughly speaking, “eating resources”. The current payment system creates a hole through which budget money is sucked out by shareholders from the government and commercial structures. My prediction is that the IMF loan will not be received in the 2014 year, because the government does not want to carry out reforms.

As for the Russian money, we received the first tranche of 3 billion dollars, as for all other tranches - as long as there is no information. Neither the terms, nor the conditions, nor the yield on these securities, respectively, we can not even confidently say - will we get the money at all. Russia is not so easy to allocate the money. There are quite significant limitations - Russia does not have extra money in the budget. And the national welfare fund has certain limitations and from there it is impossible to get more 8 billions. It is hard to say under what conditions Russia will give money. I would not even say that exactly 15 billions will be received. And what our government is going to do next is not completely clear. They are counting on a reduction in gas prices, but this issue will also be solved once a quarter, plus it is not clear what requirements Russia will put forward so that the price of 268 dollars remains. And it is not clear whether the President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich, and the government headed by Mykola Azarov will agree to fulfill these conditions, which most likely will concern certain assets that will have to go under the control of Russian business.

Many economists have talked about the threat of default that loomed over Ukraine in 2013. Does this threat persist in 2014, and what will happen to the gold and currency reserves of Ukraine, which have already reached a critical level?

I strongly insisted that I did not believe in the default of Ukraine either in 2013 or in 2014. Considering that the first credit tranche from Russia has already been received, the situation with gold and foreign exchange reserves will improve. As for the default in 2014, even if we had not received money from anyone, Ukraine’s default would not threaten. But with the 2015 year is not so simple. If in the 2015 year, those 15 billions of dollars that Russia allocates should be returned, then there is a high probability of default. Over the course of the year, Ukraine will not be able to return the same amount to the Russian Federation. But we can talk about this problem, if, of course, the information is true that Ukraine is really going to take a loan from Russia for 2 of the year, that is, before 2015.

Is it possible to repay debt to Russia at the expense of the new loan from the IMF?

Theoretically, this is possible, but for this it is necessary to carry out reforms, and until the 2015 of the year, this government of Ukraine will definitely not do. They want to preserve the status quo, show the immutability of the rate of increasing social benefits and keep the situation calm, so that at the expense of such stability to win the presidential election.
Author:
Originator:
http://www.regnum.ru/
51 comment
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. Ingvar 72
    Ingvar 72 14 January 2014 15: 40
    +2
    Kushniruk is some kind of non-Ukrainian surname. I knew one Kushnir ... laughing And it pulls them into the economy and finance, do not feed honey.
    1. sledgehammer102
      sledgehammer102 14 January 2014 19: 11
      +8
      If they continue to Maidan there, then very soon all of Ukraine will know what zleb is on cards, default, devaluation, and other terms so familiar to us. But stingy articles from Ukraine about our default in 1998 were still remembered ...
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. Cherdak
        Cherdak 14 January 2014 23: 21
        -1
        Quote: s
        The hopes of the Ukrainian government that Russia will help us will buy Ukrainian products

        [media = http: //joyreactor.cc/post/1121533][/ url]]

        Well, this is already too much - to get into Europe and transfer debts to barter
        1. Cherdak
          Cherdak 15 January 2014 21: 10
          0
          The cooperation program of Ukraine with the countries - members of the Customs Union - Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan for the period until 2020:

          The introductory part of the document is very ambitious.
          The Cabinet of Ministers listed problems that should be resolved by implementing this document. Among them - a significant decrease in the intensity of trade and investment ties, decrease in turnover, the existence of restrictions in mutual trade and lack of an effective mechanism for resolving trade disputes.

          However, the plan does not offer a detailed description of ways to solve such large-scale problems. The document lists seven "program execution paths", but they are all declarative. For example, the Cabinet of Ministers intends to act by "realizing export potential" or "improving legislation in the field of protecting the rights of investors."

          Well, purely Maidan in politics
    2. Jurkovs
      Jurkovs 14 January 2014 20: 19
      +5
      The bulk of the Jews appeared in Russia after the second partition of Poland, along with the withdrawing population living in these territories, according to modern estimates, about 300 thousand. Since in Russia until now there was nothing like this, they equated them with the city bourgeoisie. The question arose about surnames that the Jews had not had before. Without further ado, our clerk wrote out passports for Russian surnames. So the Zaitsevs, Ivanovs, Petrovs, Sidorovs appeared in Russia with the names Moses, Lazarus, and so on. Until yesterday, I myself thought that I was able to identify at least Russian by name.
  2. VirtusEtHonor
    VirtusEtHonor 14 January 2014 18: 33
    +8
    Ukraine of a healthy person - Union and symbiosis of the industries of Donbass and the Russian Federation, Ukraine of a smoker - uneducated youth of Little Russia, tearing out toilets of Europe and scolding it in their troubles)
  3. Sour
    Sour 14 January 2014 18: 41
    +3
    I would like to read adequate comments, even with an elementary knowledge of economics and politics.
    It doesn’t matter - confirming or disproving the author. If only in the subject and competently.
    Thank you all in advance.
    1. VirtusEtHonor
      VirtusEtHonor 14 January 2014 19: 01
      +3
      As far as I know from my wife, all promising people are now trying to get out of there by hook or by crook, either in the Russian Federation or in Europe. It would be logical to establish cooperation between the industries of the Russian Federation and Ukraine initially, but instead, Ukraine is trying to act as a self-sufficient (albeit to the detriment) economic-developed state, which now cannot be achieved with the leadership that is on the ground and in the government apparatus. After the collapse of the USSR, the national economy of Ukraine could become the most successful in nominal and specific terms due to the strong processing orientation of the economy (as well as the Baltic states), but the years of corruption, privatization and inefficient management threw back all successes years ago. As a result, all that Ukraine can do today is to make more or less adequate pipes and metal rolling, to supply cheap skilled labor and cheap prostitutes with lard.
      1. leks
        leks 14 January 2014 19: 19
        +1
        Yes, there are so many lost opportunities, thanks to a handful of oligarchic freaks who, like parasites, have divorced around the country and probably will be dumped only after everyone has sucked out!
        1. VirtusEtHonor
          VirtusEtHonor 14 January 2014 19: 22
          +2
          you seem to quote the situation in the Russian Federation. Putting all his friends on the wall, Putin would have long brought the Russian Federation to the heights that Peter had reached.
          1. leks
            leks 14 January 2014 19: 28
            +3
            And we have about the same thing, only at one time they squeezed who should not be allowed to gird out in full.
            What would Putin do if oil prices hadn't jumped over $ 100, where would the money come from, I think we would not have gone far then.
            Yes, and about Peter, I am tormented by vague doubts that he did the right thing, thanks for the window to Europe, thank you for the fleet, but the fact that I began to introduce European orders in the vastness of Russia, considering that it would benefit Russia, is already too much.
          2. ansons
            ansons 14 January 2014 22: 18
            +1
            Peter Reached? God save us from such achievements; after Peter's death, it turned out that the treasury was empty, although we are still assured that he brought the economy to an unprecedented size, however, there is a discrepancy. The decline of the indigenous population under Peter was 20-30% (there are disagreements here). The people of Peter are still remembered (called) as "Antichrist". And the beginning of the creation of the fleet was not his merit, he only continued, but his father Alexei Mikhailovich.
            1. xan
              xan 15 January 2014 01: 08
              +2
              Quote: ansons
              Peter Reached? God forbid us from such achievements; after Peter's death, it turned out that the treasury was empty, although we are still assured that he brought the economy to an unprecedented amount, however, a mismatch.

              Under Peter, Russia was second only to England in terms of metal smelting, which at that time was the most technologically advanced production. Under Peter, all production grew by leaps and bounds. Before Peter, Russia could not cope with Poland and Sweden separately - after Peter, Russia did not see point blank either Poland or Sweden, or both of them combined. And the fate of Turkey, not to mention the Crimea, was a foregone conclusion. Without false pathos, still not a single world issue can be resolved without Russia, and Peter began this.
              If these are not indicators, then what are the indicators?
              Quote: ansons
              after the death of Peter it turned out that the treasury was empty

              but the Petrine fuseliers and dragoons drove the vaunted Swedes across Europe like hares, the German princes and the Polish king quietly did for themselves, and the Vienna, London and Paris diplomats urgently rebuilt their realpolitik.
              And loot only warms the poor soul.
          3. Setrac
            Setrac 15 January 2014 01: 07
            +2
            Quote: VirtusEtHonor
            you seem to quote the situation in the Russian Federation. Putting all his friends on the wall, Putin would have long brought the Russian Federation to the heights that Peter had reached.

            You greatly exaggerate the power of our president.
      2. Gunsmith
        Gunsmith 14 January 2014 23: 17
        0
        Adequate pipes still need to be sold! A plant for the production of pipes of the nomenclature purchased in Italy was bought in Chelyabinsk. Large diameter pipes Russia is importing from Germany. The share of Ukrainian metal in the Russian market from 30% earlier, .. is steadily falling to zero. Russia replaced aircraft engines for helicopters with their own at newly built facilities. Etc...
        1. anarky
          anarky 14 January 2014 23: 40
          +1
          Russia replaced aircraft engines for helicopters with their own at newly built facilities.
          No, here we are still very dependent on Motor Sich. Even if the St. Petersburg plant reaches its design capacity of 600 engines per year, this will not cover the requests of Russian Helicopters. Let me remind you that in 2013 they assembled 303 helicopters and seemed to promise to collect 2020 by 450, which is 900 engines, not counting any remotorizations. I’m not sure that all these helicopters use TV3-117 / VK-2500, but obviously the vast majority. So Mr. Boguslaev can sleep peacefully.
    2. chunga-changa
      chunga-changa 14 January 2014 19: 27
      +2
      Everything written is more or less true. Well, of course it will come true if Ukraine is left alone. But obviously the West does not want this and in the summer and autumn serious unrest will begin, if not earlier. And in riots, all these calculations of a broken penny are not worth it.
      1. ele1285
        ele1285 14 January 2014 20: 17
        +2
        Quote: chunga-changa
        Everything written is more or less true.

        Less likely.
        There are so many economists, there are so many opinions. In the vastness of the net, there are not just any economic forecasts for Russia and Ukraine that I have not read and everywhere is different.
      2. Jogan-xnumx
        Jogan-xnumx 15 January 2014 00: 04
        +1
        Quote: chunga-changa
        Everything written is more or less true.

        What is the truth there? The article is not a forecast, but the seventh water on jelly! Put article minus! A slurred moo about some reforms there, GDP growth and decline, help from Europe, the IMF and the like cleansing ... Everything in general and nothing!
        In Ukraine, all adequate people all perfectly understand what is happening and what needs to be done for the economy to work. And for a long time, everything has been calculated by sensible economists with a truly state-owned approach to solving problems, and not by these bullshit.
        In short, then:
        - for all this anecdotal independence, nothing has been seriously modernized, only something cosmetically for show-off, or - for it’s unbearable;
        - almost the entire energy sector is in private hands and the profits from it go offshore, crumbs are transferred to the budget;
        - the same thing with mining, the profitability of which is ensured by the sale of the hill for junk euro prices in foreign currency, while investments in mining and primary processing in local currency are 1 to 10, without R&D, exploration and other upgrades;
        - similarly with industrial enterprises that "eat up" their vehicles. "motor resources" since the times of the USSR, whose products were focused on the domestic market of the USSR, and now - on the Russian Federation, for the same standards. And to this there are also ambitions, such as farther from Moscow;
        - with innovations the situation is even worse. "And what is it?" Since it is necessary to invest now, and the prospect of "exhausting" is far and illusory, therefore, nobody cares about it, with the exception of individual enthusiasts who, in response to any initiative, "draw" cookies;
        - the agrarian sector (land) is split up and belongs to some unknown person, although according to the papers - to the villagers. Here, too, the policy of "grab quickly" reigns. No serious reclamation, land reclamation, etc., not to mention anything scientific;
        - animal husbandry, milk - are dead long ago. Cattle is profitable starting from about 1000 heads and not immediately, but for the future. We need government investments, because no private trader can pull this off, and big capital doesn't want to. Bank lending to a private trader will "gobble up" faster than a cow grows. More or less private pig breeding, put on stream, is kept, that is, to stuff the pig with anything with anabolic steroids, slaughter and sell at a run. After such "production", pig manure is not even suitable for fertilization, it burns out everything. The most profitable - chicken, although the same village;
        - the sphere of education - stupid programs + loot = "specialists".
        In general, already tired of writing common truths.
        "The Ukrainian night is dark, but the bacon needs to be hidden!"
        This is the whole "analysis" of the shit in which we live and which can be continued in all areas as well. While the loot and the criminal oligarchy rule the ball, nothing will be better ... hi
        1. xan
          xan 15 January 2014 01: 32
          0
          Quote: Jogan-64
          As long as the loot and the criminal oligarchy rule, nothing will be better ... hi

          And if a non-criminal patriotic oligarchy comes to power, will this somehow change the situation?
          I know an example of the coming to power of a patriotic non-criminal oligarchy - South Korea. But in order to achieve heights according to the method of South Korea, it is necessary to actually close the borders, refuse to import, and in law, make people work hard to eat, and then students study abroad and then come home to work for eat, and a bunch of additional measures similar to Stalin's war communism. And all this for almost two generations. Will Ukrainian citizens do this?
          Russia has energy resources and a periodic table. Ukraine has a people and land, but the people will not work to devour, but will leave for Europe and Russia, and you won’t go far in agriculture, even developed ones.
          I do not see a way out for the Ukrainian economy as an independent state, only the level of Bulgaria or Romania, i.e. Third world country. IMHO of course.
    3. Gunsmith
      Gunsmith 14 January 2014 23: 02
      +2
      To give a full analysis of the article, both laziness and reluctance ... the author brilliantly revealed to the yawn the negotiated theses of the reasons for economic turmoil in Ukraine and delved into the analysis of the political insolvency of the authorities, which is already alarming from the lips of the economist. * And then Ostap suffered ... * - the author of the interview does not even mention: a) the willingness of the West to immediately provide Ukraine with a waste of 2 mln. bucks * ... then, if possible *, b) lack of funds in the budget even for urgent needs, c) Azarov’s words that without Russian money a white and fluffy arctic fox would visit Ukraine in the next couple of months. (My Relative is from Ukraine, Kherson - they have not been paid pensions for the last months at all) ... Then there were fabrications, otherwise I can’t say something. It seems Russia gives money, but it can’t. The IMF seems to promise, but the government does not take it, as it is completely corrupt and opaque. Have mercy, but to steal Such amounts, much less controlled by an external audit, are simply impossible - objectively, the money is tied to the fulfillment of foreign economic obligations, which the economist simply cannot know. Conclusion: the government is unsuccessful and opaque and stealing, Ukraine doesn’t need money (!) - we’ll get out of it ourselves, Russia will deceive and take the last one, Yanuk will reach only the presidential election ... But the IMF should take money in any way (!) - suddenly for no reason Russia will ask for money back. Should I continue further? I just ran over the words of an expert economist, said by him before the presidential election. In my opinion, the meaning of the article is extremely clear.
      1. Jogan-xnumx
        Jogan-xnumx 15 January 2014 00: 13
        0
        Quote: Gunsmith
        To give a full analysis of the article and laziness, and reluctance, .. the author brilliantly opened up to the yawn of the negotiated theses

        You are not right. hi Come to Ukraine and "smell" yourself. I'm too lazy to refute you, although there are a lot of refutations ...
    4. alexng
      alexng 15 January 2014 01: 16
      +2
      Quote: Sour
      It doesn’t matter - confirming or disproving the author. If only in the subject and competently.


      Now in Russia, the economy is pulsating, i.e. both options are possible and fall and take-off, so no one on the planet Earth can predict what will happen next.
      Everything depends only on whether our leadership will carry out the deoffshorization of the key "elephants" of our economy. A decline in growth is not a collapse. There will definitely not be a fall to zero or going into the negative zone - no one will allow this. Now hysteria has begun due to the fact that very soon (in the first half of this year) long investments will begin to take effect and the last trump cards will be knocked out of the hysterics. Therefore, opponents of the restoration of Russia's greatness are trying to instill a negative scenario in the minds of people about the Russian economy, and this is especially evident in the former republics that were not included in the CU, in the hope that this will somehow affect the very course of events in the construction of an economic paradigm. Russia is doomed to revival and no one can stop it. hi
      1. Gunsmith
        Gunsmith 15 January 2014 13: 24
        0
        From this side I did not consider. Then much becomes clear. Thank!
  4. alone
    alone 14 January 2014 18: 51
    +3
    To be honest, the conclusions of any expert are all assumptions. So much is real, only 2015 will show.
  5. da113
    da113 14 January 2014 19: 25
    +3
    Ukraine and Russia, we must be together! both in military and economic spheres! And then, after 7-12 years, Europeans will have to adapt to our laws and wishes! After all, after 20 years of devastation, it is much easier for our enterprises to find a common language than with the Chinese! It remains to hope for the sanity of local elites and clans ... which fetter the economies of our countries! And do these elites have even a drop of sanity and the instinct of self-preservation, time will tell !!!
  6. morpex
    morpex 14 January 2014 19: 59
    +8
    The Ukrainian economy is in a recession without prospects, the probability of default in 2015 is high

    The button for launching the default is now in Putin’s hands. He wants to click .. He wants to not click ... So, by and large, we have formally President Yanukovych. Actually, it’s real - Putin.
    1. Grbear
      Grbear 14 January 2014 20: 23
      +2
      The default button is most likely a button to turn on the brain. If this does not help, then only "an autopsy will show".
      1. morpex
        morpex 19 January 2014 21: 34
        0
        Quote: GrBear
        The default button is most likely a button to turn on the brain.

        Brain???? Who??? Yanek ???? Are you not funny? laughing
    2. Jurkovs
      Jurkovs 14 January 2014 20: 23
      +3
      And the loan was issued in order to combine the political crisis (elections of 15 years) with the economic crisis. Like Putin: nippon is a clear victory.
      1. xan
        xan 15 January 2014 01: 46
        +1
        Quote: Jurkovs
        And the loan was issued in order to combine the political crisis (elections of 15 years) with the economic crisis. Like Putin: nippon is a clear victory.

        Putin is not an altruist, and he certainly does not need Ukraine with such power and with such a political elite. So for Ukraine, everything is in a fog, but something will happen.
        We live in an interesting time.
  7. Alekseir162
    Alekseir162 14 January 2014 20: 19
    +2
    Quote: morpex
    He doesn’t want to click ...

    No, he won’t press, he’s not a suicide. bully
  8. Arhj
    Arhj 14 January 2014 20: 22
    +3
    I'm certainly not an expert. But Ukraine, as in the old Russian proverb, is trying to chase two birds with one stone. The result will not be until Ukraine has decided on the specific goals that it wants to achieve. How can you achieve something if you don’t know what you want?
    1. Sour
      Sour 14 January 2014 20: 47
      +2
      Quote: Arhj
      until Ukraine decides on the specific goals that it wants to achieve.

      Different politicians have different goals there.
      Someone for leaning against the EU, at least a bit.
      Someone for continuing to maneuver between Russia and Europe.
      I do not see pro-Russian forces. Anyway, bye.
  9. Barakuda
    Barakuda 14 January 2014 20: 35
    +3
    They arrived, Bendera’s portrait hangs near the Kyiv City Council. It would be interesting if the Russian OMON would react if the portraits of Hitler and Mussolini were hanged on Red Square in Moscow. or awarded Vlasov the title of Hero of Russia ... And here we have Yushchenko Shukhevych - please - a hero of Ukraine, Bender - a hero, monuments to him ... And beat and disperse them from the bottom ... Geyropa watches .. observes.
    1. Sour
      Sour 14 January 2014 20: 43
      0
      Quote: Barracuda
      Shukhevych - please - a hero of Ukraine

      So it seems to be canceled? Or not?
      As for the monuments - sort of like that. In Ukraine, there are more than a dozen monuments to Shukhevych, as far as I know.
      There is a rumor that Akhmetov (like Donetsk) sponsors Tyagnibok. Is it so? What does Ukraine say about this?
      1. Barakuda
        Barakuda 14 January 2014 21: 02
        +2
        Yanyk canceled, but the fact itself! Tyagnybok does not sponsor, it is a fact, he has invested so much in Yanyka, why should he? Irreconcilable enemies, although Yanyk is a pawn placed where the Akhmetovs, Pinchuki, Medvedchuki will order ... they will turn their heads without brains. The main business is focused on Russia, they understand all this, but some people want to sit on 2 chairs. But basically the people are not for Yanyka or someone else, but simply for ending the mess ...
  10. Lesorub
    Lesorub 14 January 2014 20: 38
    +3
    Quote: Arhj
    I'm certainly not an expert. But Ukraine, as in the old Russian proverb, is trying to chase two birds with one stone. The result will not be until Ukraine has decided on the specific goals that it wants to achieve. How can you achieve something if you don’t know what you want?

    Of course, Ukraine will not be determined, because we have "Big capital represented in Politics" is one thing (these people defend their business interests), And all the rest - the people of Ukraine - are different, having nothing to do with the first, What can I say, not a single one social program or economic for 20 years of independent Shame! and the army is three times less than the number of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
  11. Vitaly Anisimov
    Vitaly Anisimov 14 January 2014 21: 09
    0
    Now they will begin to bankrupt Ukraine .. in all ways (and they won’t spare any money ..) Hold on to the Ukrainians the show continues (how can we help ..) but it all depends on you ..!
    1. Barakuda
      Barakuda 14 January 2014 21: 22
      0
      Russia will not, it is not profitable for it, and the latest examples confirm this.
      1. xan
        xan 15 January 2014 02: 01
        0
        Quote: Barracuda
        Russia will not, it is not profitable for it, and the latest examples confirm this.

        And what Russia will not give? Do you think Putin will support your so-called Russophobian, by definition, power? Will he continue to regularly unfasten and subsidize your anti-Russian elite with gas prices for 15 billion? Putin has been in power for a long time, it is already possible to draw conclusions. Did he bend in front of someone?
        What Russia really needs is not to get products from Ukrainian enterprises, but to change the Russophobic vector in Ukraine. And here I think it will be according to the Bible - "God's millstones grind slowly, but thoroughly."
  12. Barakuda
    Barakuda 14 January 2014 21: 12
    +3
    Quote: Lesorub
    Quote: Arhj
    I'm certainly not an expert. But Ukraine, as in the old Russian proverb, is trying to chase two birds with one stone. The result will not be until Ukraine has decided on the specific goals that it wants to achieve. How can you achieve something if you don’t know what you want?

    Of course, Ukraine will not be determined, because we have "Big capital represented in Politics" is one thing (these people defend their business interests), And all the rest - the people of Ukraine - are different, having nothing to do with the first, What can I say, not a single one social program or economic for 20 years of independent Shame! and the army is three times less than the number of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

    What is true is true. The army can only fight with Romania, and with the collapse of the Union, and Germany could give a neck. The Ministry of Internal Affairs is pornography, the staff turnover is terrible .. they take anyone, the main role is played by loyalty and zadoliz .. in power.
  13. SunSanBel2003
    SunSanBel2003 14 January 2014 21: 58
    0
    Ukraine got into the WTO in 2008 - from there the collapse of industry, etc. Last year, Azarov tried to hint at the WTO that Ukraine would like to change 380 tariff lines, but the EU and the US sent it very specifically. Russia is now also in the WTO - with the same effect for our industry and agriculture. Therefore, regarding the acquisition of Ukrainian products in Russia, there is nothing to count on. If we didn’t have oil, they themselves would go around the world. And we gave money to Ukraine so that it could pay off the IMF — that is, simply put, we refinanced it with our Russian money so that the IMF would not suffer, and also so that in January there was something for the Yanukovych people to pay salaries with pensions (for this Of course, it’s not a pity, although it would be nice if they asked him for this money) - by the way, this is before any association with the EU. And, by the way, it’s not the first time that we have printed out our money-box (our Reserve Fund whatever you call it). At one time, Putin was ready to pay a fine of a million dollars in order to pay off his debt to the Paris Club ahead of schedule, otherwise the German friend Schroeder had problems with the budget ...
    1. Russ69
      Russ69 15 January 2014 02: 14
      0
      Quote: SunSanBel2003
      At one time, Putin was ready to pay a fine of a million dollars in order to pay off his debt to the Paris Club ahead of schedule,

      Then, Russia had to conduct economic policy on its own, and with the debts of the IMF, this is not an ice. The IMF always exposes a bunch of conditions when allocating a loan and subsequently interferes unceremoniously.
      According to this, with early repayment, I had to pay a penalty. But it still turned out to be cheaper if everyone paid on time.
      1. SunSanBel2003
        SunSanBel2003 15 January 2014 14: 09
        0
        Quote: Russ69
        Quote: SunSanBel2003
        At one time, Putin was ready to pay a fine of a million dollars in order to pay off his debt to the Paris Club ahead of schedule,

        Then, Russia had to conduct economic policy on its own, and with the debts of the IMF, this is not an ice. The IMF always exposes a bunch of conditions when allocating a loan and subsequently interferes unceremoniously.
        According to this, with early repayment, I had to pay a penalty. But it still turned out to be cheaper if everyone paid on time.


        Sorry, brother, but before you object, it would be good to know what you are talking about. I wrote about the debt to the Paris Club, not the IMF. They did not set any conditions for us there. So there was no benefit for us to pay in an accelerated mode, paying millions in fines from our Reserve Fund to all creditors from the Paris Club. I repeat: Germany then had problems with the budget and our money was very useful to them. You can find the details - everything is on the net. As for the "independent policy", for the sake of which, as you say, we rushed to pay off debts: did you know that at the same time our entire business, including all these "national assets" of ours, was driven into debt to foreign creditors? Oh-oh-chen promotes independence. And today, when we can easily lay out 15 billion for the paper cut by the Ukrainians, where does Rosneft receive loans and in what amounts - you know?
  14. anarky
    anarky 14 January 2014 22: 13
    0
    And who knows, under what guarantees Ukraine allocated money to Ukraine? What a muddy story there. Obviously, not honestly.
    1. SunSanBel2003
      SunSanBel2003 14 January 2014 22: 35
      0
      True, muddy. It would be all clean (both from them and from our side), and there would be clear guarantees, then they would draw up everything as it should - as a loan from the state of Russia to the state of Ukraine, and not buy up cut paper.
      1. anarky
        anarky 14 January 2014 23: 10
        +1
        I have a black suspicion that Ukraine will lose some strategic enterprises under this business. Dart Pu will not miss such a chance.
        1. SunSanBel2003
          SunSanBel2003 15 January 2014 00: 04
          0
          Not a fact, maybe we just cover someone's "chemistry" with our own blood (although Kudrin and Putin believe that our oil and gas incomes are unearned). And if we knock out some strategic enterprises in this way, then we, the population of Russia, so what? - well, they will pass from some Ukrainian vekselberg to ours ...
    2. Russ69
      Russ69 15 January 2014 02: 17
      0
      Quote: anarky
      And who knows, under what guarantees Ukraine allocated money to Ukraine? What a muddy story there. Obviously, not honestly.

      Quote: SunSanBel2003
      True, muddy. It would be all clean (both from them and from our side), and there would be clear guarantees, then they would draw up everything as it should - as a loan from the state of Russia to the state of Ukraine, and not buy up cut paper.

      This is not paper, and not just an allotted loan. And the purchase of debt instruments, not directly, but through the exchange. In this case, the state is fully responsible. The only way out is to postpone payments and default in the country. And, it is much worse for the economy.
      1. SunSanBel2003
        SunSanBel2003 15 January 2014 14: 17
        0
        Sorry, brother, but the normal way, if not chemically (on our behalf) to the benefit of our and Ukrainian promissory notes, and at the same time the IMF, is to give direct state credit. And already the Ukrainian government would decide what to do with it - to redeem its debt obligations or else how to act. And so under the pompous speeches about fraternal help we are clearly scamming some kind of scam, from which neither one nor the other people will get much better.
  15. Lumumba
    Lumumba 14 January 2014 22: 14
    +1
    Tyagnibok, Lutsenko, Yatsenyuk and the clown Klitschko:

    These are CIA agents, enemies of the Slavic peoples, hirelings of pro-American, gay-parade Jewish imperialism, who betrayed their own land for dollars and key posts in power, in the "future progressive European state" of slaves.
    1. anarky
      anarky 14 January 2014 22: 32
      0
      Or maybe everything is easier and they are ordinary adventurers who want power and glory?;)

      Or I fed the troll ...
  16. Andrey44
    Andrey44 14 January 2014 22: 20
    +1
    The devil only knows: "we want, they want." Somehow: it sucks with us, be affectionate with the EU too .. With the EU, they will be shod
    with Russia not fallow dead. Of course they will poher - how many died under Stalingrad? How can you endure Bendera, is your skill shot, sawn, your families chopped up, ruined? WHAT FASCISM IS IT NEEDED ????
    Ps sorry. boiled up.
    Kazan
  17. undusk
    undusk 14 January 2014 23: 13
    +2
    In general, I am amazed at how the country is somehow spinning when the government is not working. I must probably say thank you to the local authorities. Roads after last winter at the very least have been restored, the pensions of the elderly have been raised at least a penny, the fields have been sown. And what about the "Maidan" - in the Crimea, the number of homeless people became less, they were all taken to Kiev. On TV, it is disgusting to watch the government scuffling in front of the gay European ministers. The authorities do not have any pride or balanced policy. They need a firm hand, and a clear answer with whom Ukraine is - with Europe or with Russia. In the meantime, only staggering and grinning - they promised from three boxes - they got a discount on gas and dough on salaries from Russia, but still Europe has a sweeter ass and we will lick it further. How much can you gentlemen? You will already decide what is more important for you, the visa-free opportunity to remove the pots for the Europeans, or build missiles, planes, ships, etc. with the Russians
  18. individual
    individual 14 January 2014 23: 40
    +1
    What optimism can be in the real economy of Ukraine, if the eastern regions drag the cargo of the West, which is eating up its economy on the Maidan.
    The government asks Maidan:
    - "Should we accept the budget?
    - The answer is necessary.
    - Go to work.
    - answer no.
    - Do you need to establish traffic in Kiev?
    - Answer yes.
    - Free up the area.
    - They answer no ... request
  19. NKR
    NKR 14 January 2014 23: 59
    0
    Well, the poured out opposition wants growth and development, but for this it does not do anything, it only lives on the squares and fulfills Western money.
    I would be surprised if they agreed to disperse, but not fortunately they disappointed me.
  20. Bogranz
    Bogranz 15 January 2014 00: 50
    +1
    Still, probably, all the troubles of the Ukrainian economy should not be blamed on several dozen (well, even hundreds or even thousands) of "Maidan". They do not make the weather in the country's economy even taking into account the attendant losses. Unfortunately, there is no serious economic research in the media, and more and more economists-theoreticians are noted for not deep superficial articles with conclusions not based on serious research. So, ... at the level of fortune-telling on the coffee grounds. From the moment of gaining independence and "independence", when something was torn apart and thus simply destroyed, but something was "grabbed" and the privatizers themselves focused on quick and maximum costly making a profit, forgetting about the MODERNIZATION of production, the Ukrainian economy lived, consuming what had inherited from the USSR. Result: the West does not need products (and the level is not the same), and the main consumers from the former USSR were forced to give up due to economic risks due to the instability of the internal political situation in Ukraine (queues of Maidans, hesitation between the EU and the CU, government and presidential crises, the rupture of mutually binding industrial ties, etc.) In the new conditions, not all economic decisions have become the prerogative of Presidents or governments of countries: everyone, even the dwarf "oligarch" began to consider himself the navel of the earth, and hardly any of them bothers, except for their profits, the state of the economy of Art wounds in general ... Plus to this the ongoing struggle for redistribution and seizure of property: capital is insatiable in the thirst for profit and in order to grab something it will go to destroy a competitor in a neighboring, even close-minded state, not really bothering how this will affect the state of unemployment or the economy as a whole. Crises, the fall of the economies of countries in the post-Soviet space are the result of a hard collision of two paths (socialist and capitalist) of development, the functioning of the economy over a short period of time ... I am not an economist, but ... a petty theorist. I expressed myself within the limits of my understanding ... Do not judge strictly.
    1. Magadan
      Magadan 15 January 2014 05: 01
      0
      There is nothing to think about. And for Russia and Ukraine there is a wonderful example of Belarus and its model of economy. They have no resources, poor arable land, there is not even access to the sea and look at the result: even in my home in Magadan there is a kitchen from Belarus, a meat grinder and a bunch of other small things. Belarusian food is generally a special brand that has already begun to conquer all of Russia. Magadan mines use BELAZ.
      In short, the dad was right that he did not rush to the "free market" so indiscriminately
  21. AVV
    AVV 15 January 2014 01: 11
    0
    Quote: sledgehammer102
    If they continue to Maidan there, then very soon all of Ukraine will know what zleb is on cards, default, devaluation, and other terms so familiar to us. But stingy articles from Ukraine about our default in 1998 were still remembered ...

    Default, not default, and if they are also torn to Europe, then Russia’s credit will not help !!! Europe will reset it, put forward its requirements, and put it on a short leash !!! What will the Maydans sing !!!
  22. DMB-78
    DMB-78 15 January 2014 01: 12
    +1
    I strongly think that both the government and Yanukovych themselves do not really know what and how to do it. one shy and no will. golden eagle protects them, and they surrender it. so it’s the case that the people themselves will disperse this Maidan, and at the same time the government and Yanukovych.
  23. Magadan
    Magadan 15 January 2014 04: 57
    +1
    Quote: Sour
    I would like to read adequate comments, even with an elementary knowledge of economics and politics.
    It doesn’t matter - confirming or disproving the author.

    I’m not an expert, but I’m just sure that if Ukraine doesn’t end up completely, then its future is simply beautiful. The fact is that all over the world, the growth in food production has practically slowed down. Opportunities have been exhausted. There is less land, less water, and more eaters, and in India and China, with their frantic economic growth, they are eating more and more.
    Then everything becomes clear from where Maidan's legs grow. Westerners - give them their due - are planning for decades ahead. They desperately need Ukraine as a colony. The Ukrainian people, on the other hand, are kicked out with the help of such "technologies" as juvenile justice, artificial impoverishment through the collapse of industry, selective assimilation (those who are lucky enough to leave for Europe to scrub the pots to the Germans), propaganda of homosexual meat, etc. About this and all theirs document about the Euroassociation, there it is all not even covered. If we, Russia, do not want new peoples, grown in a special tolerant way, to settle on the lands where our ancestors are buried, where Russia came from, we must do our best to contribute to the economic growth of Ukraine.
    1. ZU-23
      ZU-23 15 January 2014 08: 08
      0
      Yes, Ukraine needs help, and since the country is not so huge, only Yanyk must personally work and control all the processes, everything can be done there without leaving Mars, Putin needs a portal for us to move to the regions. It is still bad that inside the country and in the parliament itself, demons are still being persecuted, it is necessary to quickly restore the country's sovereignty and the work of laws, to punish Euro-integrators, and such as the Freedom Party, generally need to be locked up immediately. In general, we can shower them with our patriotic media and squeeze cock channels, everything can be done, the country can make profit easily by 2020.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  24. Semenov
    Semenov 15 January 2014 07: 28
    0
    An expert asks more questions than answers. Social upheavals in Ukraine are inevitable. There is no way out; the oligarchic-thieves system cannot be changed, or with great difficulty. Continued cooperation with the Russian Federation will only delay the crisis, and Ukraine has no time to solve its global economic problems, they share power there. The default will be, another question - when.