Kyrgyzstan's accession to the Customs Union is delayed. The approval of the roadmap, originally scheduled for Summer-2013, was once again postponed - to May 2014. Opponents and even cautious supporters talk about the upcoming step in the pledge of choice, bargaining. However, the choice is somewhat not about what it is customary to talk about - not between the introduction and the non-introduction. It's about choosing between the awareness of the need for a new industrialization of the republic and the illusions of the possibility of maintaining political stability, reproducing the current model of the state.
Service economy as an air lock
The economy of Kyrgyzstan today is considered “service”. This elegant term was invented by the Minister of Economy and Antimonopoly Policy Temir Sariev. Reporting to Kyrgyz parliamentarians about a year ago, he outlined the main structural component of the national economy: “25% of the republic’s economy is based on agriculture, 43% falls on trade relations and services, 5 – 7% is related to the development of the financial sector country. The state economy has become a service one, and this is what distinguishes us from other countries of the world. ” More 20 – 5% in our way, in an oriental way - back and forth.
You can differ favorably. Or vice versa. What does Kyrgyzstan live today? The alignment is simple. In addition to income from labor migrants (almost a million Kyrgyz people annually transfer and bring more than 3,5 billion dollars to the republic), there are trade flows from China to the CIS (the notorious re-export) and maintenance of Bishkek residents in transport, catering, hairdressing, exchange offices, media and shops .
About energy needs a special conversation. Tourism is still, again. Under President Akaev, tourism was the foremost red banner for the ideologues of independence. But did not grow together. The infrastructure itself did not arise (apparently, the law of non-decreasing entropy prevented), and no one invested investments without guarantees. From the “other” - electric power industry (all projects in which are tied to Russia), coal mining for domestic use, gold mining at Kumtor and sewing workers. Only lazy does not know about Kumtor and the ongoing fight for the good of others for more than a year. The growth of the effectiveness of this enterprise is clearly not expected. Weather masters won't do it.
In the early nineties, total privatization was held in industry in Kyrgyzstan.
The result is known. Factories stopped production, some were redeployed (they set up production of kettles and basins, they also issued salaries, these markers of the nineties were common to the entire post-Soviet space), some went bankrupt. Industrial output declined in 1995 year, it decreased by two thirds compared with 1990-m. Then this figure fluctuated slightly. Total, in the national economy of Kyrgyzstan, the share of industry now, by the beginning of 2014, does not reach 20%. This is the true meaning of the term “service economy.”
However, while industrial production fell in the 1990-s, now the prospect of reducing re-export is looming ahead. The question of the end of the re-export era in Kyrgyzstan is put in direct connection with the entry into the Customs Union. They say that as a result, the grandiose market “Dordoy” and its southern “brother”, “Kara-Suu” will die - and a social explosion is ensured. But the Eurasian integration process will necessarily continue - with or without Kyrgyzstan. So, Dordoi, in any case, is waiting for decline. For the economy to have a foundation, it must produce something other than impressions.
Nostalgia as a way to feel the difference
Here you need an excursion to history. In 1913, the share of industrial production in Kyrgyzstan was 3%. Before 1917, the industry based on handicraft production was mainly engaged in the processing of agricultural raw materials (86,5%). 1 candy factory, 2 brewery and 2 tanneries, a workshop for the production of fruit and berry juices, 11 mills and oil mills worked.
In the Soviet period, when Kyrgyzstan was part of the Central Asian economic region, the leading industries were mining, engineering, light industry and food industry. On the system of hydropower facilities built at this time, the economy still works at the very least. Coal, oil and gas were mined in the south-west of the republic. In Kyrgyzstan, parts, metal-cutting machines and automatic lines, electrical products, devices and consumer goods were manufactured as part of an all-Union industrial chain. And even torpedoes for the Navy. Dozens of powerful factories gave hundreds of thousands of jobs. Nonferrous metallurgy (mining and enrichment of mercury, antimony, lead-zinc ores, production of mercury, antimony) was unusually developed. Light industry was represented by cotton-cleaning, textile (there was no need to import fabrics and knitwear from China), as well as leather-shoe, garment and carpet weaving factories. The developed network of agricultural enterprises and factories producing construction materials complemented the picture. As a result, the share of industry in the economy of the Kirghiz SSR increased from 3 to 50%. It was.
As it became - we also see. The scale of the destruction of the economy is impressive. Moreover, the data were not obtained under bullets or in secret archives - only open sources and official data of the Ministry of Economy and Antimonopoly Policy. Figures, public speeches of the minister, a simple comparison of the facts paint an unequivocal picture. And on this basis, let us ask ourselves a rhetorical question: does Kyrgyzstan need a new industrialization?
New industrialization as a real perspective
Is it possible to simply restore the former economic ties? Unfortunately no. I will return to the law of non-decreasing entropy. All processes, as is known, can be divided into reversible and irreversible. So, while the democratic ships plowed the ocean space of the dream of independence, scientific and technical progress has gone far ahead. Technological processes that provided industrial communications are hopelessly outdated. In addition, the former partners in the USSR developed these 20 years unevenly and overgrown with new connections. Zero the results of an economic disaster is impossible. Therefore, the process of destruction of the joint economy is irreversible. Kyrgyzstan should build a new one. Will the republic master this task in the context of globalization of world economic processes independently? Of course not.
Then with whom? Let us imagine that China, which has seen all these years in Kyrgyzstan as a raw "shed" and wholesale distributor of its goods in the markets of its neighbors, suddenly rushes to build factories and plants here. Recently, Vice President of the Chinese Institute of International Affairs Ruan Zuen spoke about the role of Kyrgyzstan in the economic programs of the Silk Road project as an alternative to the Customs Union for the Kyrgyz Republic. Who does not know the way shopping. And the project too. There are no other plans, and they have nowhere to appear. Railway, trade enterprises - about the same. Turkey exports clothes and ideology to Kyrgyzstan. Loans more. It is also strange to wait from the shores of industrial projects. About the European Union and the US shut up, perhaps. There are only former partners in the Soviet Union.
The real prospect of going along the difficult path of new industrialization, bypassing the catastrophic scenario, is Eurasian economic integration.