Military Review

Geopolitical implications of the European integration process in the Middle East

Geopolitical implications of the European integration process in the Middle EastThe Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus has emerged recently, but there is a precedent for such a union, by the example of which we can approximately see the main development trends of the countries participating in the Customs Union of the three countries, unless a political force majeure happens. This is the Union State of Russia and Belarus, created in 1999 year. Belarus and Russia have a customs union within the SG.

The customs union of the three is in many ways a repetition for the three countries of the path that Russia and Belarus have been following for a long time. Using the example of the IG, we can see the main problems to be solved by the three countries within the framework of the Customs Union and the main expected results of Eurasian economic integration. It should also be noted that the conclusion of the customs union of the three allowed to remove some of the important for Belarus exemptions from the Customs Union that exists between Belarus and Russia within the framework of the SG. This is, first of all, the introduction of gas prices for Belarus at the level of one of the northern regions of Russia and the elimination of customs duties on Russian oil and petroleum products supplied to Belarus.

As a result of the existence of both customs unions between Russia and Belarus, the latter was able to maintain its processing export-oriented large-scale industry, and also to move on to a large-scale modernization of this industry. Belarusian producers compete on equal terms with Russian manufacturers in one large market, in fact, in the Russian market. Belarusian manufacturers also received competitive advantages for their presence in the markets of neighboring countries that are members of the Customs Union.

This allowed Belarus to dramatically increase the export of a number of goods outside the Customs Union. First of all, oil products to Ukraine and to EU member states. Over the last three years, oil refining in Ukraine has almost disappeared, unable to withstand the competition in its market with the products of Belarusian and Russian refineries. Belarus receives a high surplus in trade with the European Union due to exports to the EU countries, primarily petrochemical products. This surplus partially covers the deficit in trade with the Russian Federation, provides a program of total technological modernization of the industry. Nefteevro pumped into other sectors of the economy.

The development of the Customs Union of the three countries and its development into the Eurasian Economic Union, as well as its expansion at the expense of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Armenia, will create in these countries the same conditions for successful investments in those sectors that depend on energy prices. Investors will make sense to seriously think about investments in recycling. That should gradually create new jobs in these countries and restrain the outflow of the population to Russia.

On the other hand, obviously low prices for Russian energy carriers compared with energy prices in the markets of some neighboring countries create prospects for improving the competitiveness of industrial goods of the CU member states in the markets of a number of neighboring countries. For Armenia, such markets are Georgia, Turkey, and partly - Iran. For Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan - theoretically - the markets of Xinjiang (PRC), Afghanistan, Uzbekistan.

None of the other integration associations, apart from the CU, gives these countries any prospects of preserving or renewing the industrial character of their economies. For example, the course towards association with the EU, as the example of Ukraine demonstrates, entails a sharp drop in the competitiveness of national industry and the destruction of its entire industries.

The CU member countries are becoming attractive for large investment projects focused on the markets of neighboring countries. The example of Belarus shows that membership in a single CU with Russia dramatically increases the attractiveness of its territory for large investment projects when relying on foreign investment. In some cases, this entails the prospect of a radical change in the entire regional geopolitics in the region where Belarus is located. The same positive consequences are inevitable for other countries participating in the CU.

The largest projects that became possible after the conclusion of the CU in Belarus was the construction of a nuclear power plant and the emergence of, the beginning of the implementation of the Chinese-Belarusian industrial park.

The Belarusian NPP not only provides significant economic advantages to the Belarusian economy. A nuclear power plant also, it is possible, will expand. Statements have already been made by the leadership of Rosatom and the President of Belarus on the possibility of turning it into an export-oriented station, on the construction of more than two power units there. Thus, the TS made it possible unprecedented in stories the whole of Eastern Europe, the project of turning Belarus into an important source of regional energy generation. And where energy is, there is politics. The CU made it possible to discuss the issue of regional leadership of Belarus in its part of Eastern Europe.

A similar project in Kyrgyzstan is the construction of a number of hydropower plants on high-mountain rivers. In Tajikistan, the project for the completion of the Rogun hydropower station and the construction of a number of other hydropower plants. In Armenia, such a project is likely to be a nuclear power plant expansion project. In all three cases we are talking about the transformation of the participating countries into regional energy donors, which will complement the positive impetus to their industrial development through the equation of energy prices with Russian enterprises.

TC sharply increased the transformation of Belarus into a transport hub throughout Eastern Europe. In recent years, a program has been created for this function in Belarus and is being implemented to build more than 50 logistics centers, as well as a large-scale modernization of railways. Ahead - the construction of high-speed railways in the direction of Moscow, Warsaw and Kaliningrad. Similar projects are inevitable for all three countries - potential participants of the CU (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia). For Armenia, this means, most likely, the emergence of projects to modernize the routes of communication with Russia through Georgia and, especially, the routes of communication with Iran.

After the conclusion of the CU of the three, the largest of the announced investment projects in Eastern Europe became possible - the Chinese-Belarusian industrial park near Minsk. 90 square meters are allocated for this kind of special economic zone. km of territory near Minsk. It is expected that this park will take $ 15-30 billion for investment in high-tech manufacturing facilities for 35 years. And this despite the crisis next in the EU.

Armenia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan will also be the object of interests of the most diverse groups of international capital. It is difficult to say now what a similar project can be for Armenia. But at first glance, it should be that they will use potentially cheap NPP energy and access to the Iranian market. Just as Belarus within the CU has chances to turn into the industrial, economic core of its part of Eastern Europe, so Armenia could try to turn into the industrial center of the adjacent part of Iran, maybe Georgia and part of Turkey. In any case, this topic can be discussed today. Within the framework of any other of the real integration associations, where these three countries would enter, it is impossible to raise such topics in principle.

The capabilities provided by the vehicle are not automatic. Only a strong national state can take advantage of these opportunities. The CU creates conditions for increasing the competitiveness of national producers, but it also requires and creates the possibility of strengthening all the institutions of the national state. Big business needs to be controlled.

The CU does not provide for the creation of very strong supranational political bodies. The CU, unlike the European Union, is a union of nation states. The CU strengthens precisely the nation states. An example of relations between Belarus and Russia demonstrates this point especially vividly. It is unlikely that anyone will doubt the ability of the President of Belarus to control the situation in his country and his inability to protect the interests of Belarus in the international arena. It is unlikely that anyone will also doubt the similar potencies of the President of Kazakhstan. A strong state will become possible to create in three new potential members of the CU.

Moreover, the stimulation of the emergence of a strong effective state in these countries, the recovery of local societies from corruption and a number of other social problems will most likely be one of the main conditions for their membership in the CU. And the main tasks of the CU in the framework of the transition period of these countries to full membership in the CU. One can imagine what the geopolitics of the regions where these countries are located in will mean the cumulative effect of the industrial and investment impetus to their development within the CU and at the same time create strong efficient states in these countries.

Thus, the CU entails a sharp increase in competitiveness and regional geopolitical significance of the participating countries. The CU provides chances for the transformation of the participating countries into regional leaders and into social rehabilitation of local societies. No other integration project provides such prospects today. The greater Middle East can receive, as the CU succeeds and expands, new centers of influence and attraction on its northern border. These centers can become sources of sustainable development and peace for their local regions. For this most complex geopolitical space, the emergence within its borders of new zones of stability and development is positive.
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  1. andrei332809
    andrei332809 6 January 2014 08: 32
    all would be well if our politicians and businessmen were not so dumb. if they themselves do not know how, then we must learn, and not envy
    1. A.YARY
      A.YARY 6 January 2014 08: 35
      I watched the Old Man rotting his ministers for negligence and deception, ours would be so !!!
      1. andrei332809
        andrei332809 6 January 2014 08: 43
        Quote: A.YARY
        ours would be so !!!

        but father "our" would all be sitting already
        1. Sid.74
          Sid.74 6 January 2014 09: 14
          Old man in this respect, well done! He is even a greater Russian patriot than many Moscow "intellectuals"! That's what he says about Russia!
    2. Sakmagon
      Sakmagon 6 January 2014 09: 30
      all would be well if our politicians and businessmen were not so dumb. if they themselves do not know how, then we must learn, and not envy

      You are amazing people!
      WRITTEN IN RUSSIAN: "... the conclusion of the customs union ... allowed ... for Belarus gas prices at the level of one of the northern regions of Russia and the elimination of customs duties on Russian oil and oil products supplied to Belarus. As a result ... between By Russia and Belarus, the latter was able to preserve its processing, export-oriented large-scale industry, as well as to move to a large-scale modernization of this industry ... Belarusian producers also received advantages ... This allowed Belarus to dramatically increase ... "
      AUTHOR - YOUNG !!! bold is such a plus! It’s so simple and straightforward to decompose ... It’s a pity that it even comes to some even ... It’s clearly and clearly stated - WHO, HOW AND WHEREOF WHEREOF - no, ours are Kazl, father is maladets!
      By the way, in Belarus for p ... dezh to your country you can IMMEDIATELY get into the snout from the people and with a baton on the kidneys from the police ... WE WOULD SO!
      1. ZU-23
        ZU-23 6 January 2014 09: 40
        Handsome Lukashenko! By the way, for the sake of humor, I can recall that in the first term of Putin, he harshly opposed Russia, he was never satisfied with something. Today, it is really visible that he began to understand everything.
        1. Sid.74
          Sid.74 6 January 2014 11: 45
          Judging by the video, this is 90! It may well be that during the war in Chechnya. At the same time, he could well have taught Putin yes
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. Same lech
        Same lech 6 January 2014 13: 03
        We have another guarantor of the constitution (with its own mentality and outlook on life) - I really don’t like some of his things, but since people chose him for this post, they have to endure.
  2. pensioner
    pensioner 6 January 2014 08: 38
    The Belarusian NPP not only gives noticeable economic advantages to the Belarusian economy.
    Correctly. It will also provide a nervous tic and a gnash of teeth to some representatives of the human race who are not far from the head, forced to extract energy from shit in the near future ...
  3. Vitaly Anisimov
    Vitaly Anisimov 6 January 2014 08: 59
    As Zadornov said, "Old man is still a partisan"))) you can't take them with your bare hands .. !!! bully
    1. Sid.74
      Sid.74 6 January 2014 12: 03
      bully While in Belarus there is the Old Man is a large partisan detachment in the center of Europe! laughing

      Belarus, like the Slavic languages, is the guardian of Russia from the western evil eye.
      1. pensioner
        pensioner 6 January 2014 18: 12
        Quote: Sid.74
        While in Belarus there is the Old Man is a large partisan detachment in the center of Europe!

        And without a traitor ... repeat
    2. Anatole Klim
      Anatole Klim 6 January 2014 12: 51
      Quote: MIKHAN
      As Zadornov said, "The old man is still a partisan"

      If you already remembered Zadornov, then smile kindly, of course.
      Quotes from President Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko:

      I went in - aerobics. They showed me there, because I had never seen aerobics. I immediately said: "These beauties would be on skis!"

      The people of Belarus took a chance and elected me President. This is extremely rare in history and more may not be.

      I will not lead my state beyond the civilized world.

      I worked in a village and lived with men.

      I really love sports - this is my best quality.

      The uniqueness of the situation in Belarus is that I do not owe anything to anyone.

      I promise that by the New Year, every Belarusian on the table will have normal human eggs.

      For the sake of maintaining calm in the country, I am ready to sacrifice my own mind!

      You will live badly, but not for long!

      As a child, I grew up among animals and plants.

      As soon as I took up the eggs, as soon as the oil disappeared.

      It's time to take action and veto the taboo!

      (with accent) I regularly play all the frames and I know for sure who is the mouth and who is not the mouth!

      We have solved this problem in a narrow circle of limited people.

      I really like to play soccer, hockey, but more often I play alone.

      Those who drink will not have normal children. With this evil we will fight, as with the most terrible evil. And it turns out - he got drunk, accidentally gave birth, and you, Lukashenko, grow this child. And there are 35 thousand such children in our country ...

      The standard of living, which today the Belarusian people are below the knee for various reasons, cannot be even lower.

      My last hair stood on end when I found out about the state of affairs in the economy.

      I never lie at all ... (silence) ... by and large.

      Our family has one, one and a half, two children maximum!

      If someone else comes to power, they will certainly steal what is not yet stolen.

      We do not need an automated system of election fraud; we will create a state one.

      Belarus stood on the edge of the abyss, and I helped her take a step forward.

      About 3 years ago or 5, I left my residence in Minsk unexpectedly for my guard and went towards the circus. He pulled out the security service. The voice is so characteristic: Immediately, the people at the bus stop turned and recognized. I didn’t have time to get to the circus - already a whole demonstration is behind me. People are surprised - no one announced a demonstration. Tore a suit. After that, I don’t walk anymore. In Belarus, people are civilized, tore a suit, but they didn’t take it off. ›Aphorisms and sayings› Quotes from politicians?
      1. Semurg
        Semurg 7 January 2014 10: 16
        Anatol Klim. I read the pearls of the "partisan" for a long time so I hadn't laughed so much that even my granddaughter left the doll and began to ask what I was laughing at.
      2. The comment was deleted.
  4. ZU-23
    ZU-23 6 January 2014 09: 06
    Former Soviet republics will definitely need a vehicle, this will help them to trade beyond the borders of the vehicle in the future, and now nobody needs them individually.
  5. individual
    individual 6 January 2014 09: 33
    Customs union is good.
    But the artificial creation of competitive goods by lowering the prices of energy supplied ...
    By the market of Belarus it seems clear that its market is small.
    In Kazakhstan, too, it is self-sufficient.
    Will the cluster of Russian oil and gas production pull the entire line of countries that have joined the CU?
    It is alarming that the discussion is about creating new economies in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, and possibly others that have joined.
    Will their local buys allow their own economy to be backed up, or will it be the next feeding trough on the model and likeness of the republics of the North Caucasus.
    I am afraid that all this will happen again at the expense of the Russian hinterland and the Russian peasant.
    1. alone
      alone 6 January 2014 11: 14
      Armenia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan will also become the object of interests of various groups of international capital.

      The fact that they decided to create a TS is, as they say, a purely personal matter of the creators. But in order to prove usefulness, you should not be in the clouds and promise the devil knows what.
      The above-mentioned countries are in no way interested in international capital. How could international capital not wait more than 20 years, so that later it will be invested in these countries, where it is difficult to call the deplorable economy.
  6. Humpty
    Humpty 6 January 2014 10: 19
    For Kyrgyzstan, I consider entering the CU as necessary as air. This is hindered by people tied to the re-export of Chinese goods - i.e. hucksters and lured agents of influence of the Turks, NATO, Saudis. China is also not happy. It is difficult to say what is good, in addition to stabilizing the situation in Kyrgyzstan, to the countries included in the CU. In Kyrgyzstan, two of the four rivers that are of major importance for Central Asia and the western part of Xinjiang begin. Tens of millions of people for whom the waters of the Syr Darya and Sary-Jazz (Aksu), the main constituent of Tarim, are not a little, but a source of life.
    The population of the region is growing, river flow is slowly declining due to a decrease in the volume of glaciers.
    The factor of water availability is becoming increasingly important.
  7. makarov
    makarov 6 January 2014 10: 30
    whoever and how did not defame father of Lukashenko, I have no other respect for him except for a feeling of deep respect. The Kremlin nouveau riche he needs to learn to live honestly !!!
  8. Semenov
    Semenov 6 January 2014 10: 43
    Excellent prospects are drawn, but it is not clear why the vehicle is being conceived. And cheap gas, electricity, all kinds of resources are a competitive advantage. I can imagine how in 10 years the Briton will clean the toilet.
    1. andrei332809
      andrei332809 6 January 2014 10: 49
      Quote: Semenov
      I can imagine how in 10 years the Briton will clean the toilet.

      I wouldn’t trust Briton - for sure somewhere in the corner he will leave a nasty smelling bunch
  9. Clegg
    Clegg 6 January 2014 11: 41
    TS is an amorphous organization, from which Kazakhstan is simply obliged to withdraw. The faster the better.
  10. Papania
    Papania 9 January 2014 08: 20
    Old Man is required to be invited to head the joint state. There is hope that he will squeeze our rich, democrats, liberals and pid..sov.